Matthew Mourning Research Analyst Direct Line:

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Scarlett Ryan
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1 Matthew Mourning Research Analyst Direct Line:

2 Developed by The Reinvestment Fund (TRF) Philadelphia-based community development financial institution Lending; Housing Development; Policy Research; created PolicyMap.com Created under the charge of former Philadelphia Mayor John Street wanted a data-based analysis of the city s housing market HUD adopted MVA model A tool to help cities: Make decisions about resource allocation Set priorities for service delivery Tailor intervention strategies for specific market types / areas.

3 Unit of analysis: census block groups MVA rates a block group with a colored gradient scheme and generally groups it within a set letter scheme (in St. Louis: A through I) Ratings compare a city to itself not to other cities or a national benchmark. An A Detroit block group might be a lower category in an overall better performing market like Boston.

4 Challenge: take limited funds to make maximum impact in a wide range of city neighborhoods with very different conditions on the ground Solution: tie specific interventions using federal housing funds (CDBG, HOME, HOPWA, and ESG) to certain neighborhoods based on the state of their housing market Neighborhoods need different types of plans/interventions based on state of housing market. Also based on population needs and area assets (schools, parks, etc.)

5 Public subsidy is scarce and it alone cannot create a market; Public subsidy must be used to leverage, or clear the path, for private investment; In distressed markets, invest into strength (e.g., major institution of place, transportation hub, environmental amenities) Build from Strength ; All parts of the City are customers of the services and resources that it has to offer; Government action is tailored to the market conditions Quality of life interventions should apply to all parts of the City. Decisions to invest and/or deploy governmental programs must be based on objectively gathered data and sound quantitative and qualitative analysis.

6 Median sale price Variance in sale price Foreclosures by Sales % Land Zoned Non-Residential 2013 % Owner Occupied 2010 % Vacant Housing Units 2010 % Subsidized Rental Housing 2013 Permits as a % of Housing Units % Vacant Residential Land 2013 % Bank and Investor Sales = Statistical Cluster Analysis (9 gradients across 10 variables)

10 A Market Type A (Blue): Contains 31 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 9.4% of the 2010 population and 10.7% of the housing units. A markets in St. Louis have high average home sale prices but slightly lower than average levels of owner occupancy. Some publicly assisted rental housing is present in these market types. Vacant housing and vacant land are lower than average for St. Louis although not the lowest average market type. Building permit activity is above average. B C D E F G H I Market Type B (Dark Purple): Contains 26 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 9.4% of the 2010 population and 10.8% of the housing units. B markets have higher than average home sale prices but substantially lower than average owner occupancy rates. Building permit activity is highest among B markets. The ratio of foreclosures as a percent of sales is elevated although bank and investor sales are below average. B markets are also home to higher than average rates of subsidized rental housing. B markets contain a substantial amount of commercial/industrial area. Market Type C (Light Purple): Contains 46 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 13.5% of the 2010 population and 13.2% of the housing units. C markets also have higher than average home sale prices and have the highest average rates of owner occupancy in St. Louis. C markets are among the most purely residential of all market types in St. Louis. Market Type D (Red): Contains 53 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 14.9% of the 2010 population and 15.9% of the housing units. D markets in St. Louis have home sale prices very close to the citywide average. Mortgage foreclosures as a percent of sales are elevated, although slightly below average, and owner occupancy is above the citywide average. Market Type E (Pink): Contains 46 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 13.0% of the 2010 population and 11.9% of the housing units. Home sale prices in E markets are below the St. Louis average and foreclosure sales and bank and investor sales are elevated. E markets are largely residential with average rates of owner occupancy. Vacant housing is approximately equal to the St. Louis average; vacant land is substantially lower. Market Type F (Tan): Contains 51 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 13.3% of the 2010 population and 12.5% of the housing units. Sales prices in F markets are substantially below the St. Louis average although the variability among those sale prices is high. Foreclosure sales are high as are bank and investor sales. Vacant housing is above the St. Louis average; vacant land is average. F markets have slightly below average rates of owner occupancy. Market Type G (Orange): Contains 11 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 2.8% of the 2010 population and 2.5% of the housing units. Home sale prices in G markets are less than one-third the St. Louis average and the variability of prices is elevated. Foreclosures as a percent of sales and bank and investor sales are both elevated. These are markets where owner occupancy is slightly above the St. Louis average and a substantial portion of the rental stock is subsidized. Permitting activity is above the St. Louis average. Vacant housing and land are both above average. G markets show the highest levels of non-residential land use in the City. Market Type H (Cream): Contains 38 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 9.2% of the 2010 population and 8.6% of the housing units. Home sale prices in H markets are among the lowest in St. Louis although variability in those prices is above average. Owner occupancy rates are higher than the St. Louis average. Foreclosures and bank and investor sales are both substantially above the St. Louis average. Vacant land and housing are both among the highest observed across St. Louis markets. Market Type I (Yellow): Contains 40 of the City s 360 Census block groups and is home to 9.7% of the 2010 population and 9.7% of the housing units. I markets have home sale prices that are, on average, lowest in St. Louis; variability in home sale prices is highest, on average, for St. Louis. Notwithstanding those low average prices, there is substantial albeit lower than average owner occupancy. I markets have among the highest levels of subsidized rental stock. Vacant housing and land are both elevated highest, on average.

11 Cluster # BG Median Sales Price Variance Sales Price Foreclosure by Sales % Bank & Investor Sales % Non- Residential 2013 % Owner Occupied 2010 % Vacant Housing Units 2010 % Subsidized Rental Housing 2013 Permits as a % of Housing Units % Vacant Residential Land 2013 A 31 $205, % 6.74% 25.83% 44.95% 12.96% 1.58% 8.58% 4.77% B 26 $147, % 9.26% 68.80% 29.48% 15.16% 13.68% 12.18% 12.80% C 46 $122, % 14.40% 10.55% 66.99% 9.15% 1.24% 3.57% 1.50% D 53 $82, % 19.07% 31.59% 54.03% 15.49% 4.21% 5.92% 7.59% E 46 $48, % 27.54% 25.90% 46.87% 18.16% 5.91% 3.03% 4.28% F 51 $27, % 28.40% 19.13% 43.00% 23.96% 10.44% 2.23% 12.28% G 11 $21, % 27.04% 81.72% 47.92% 22.07% 15.63% 7.35% 16.26% H 38 $14, % 34.58% 18.29% 49.51% 27.17% 9.73% 2.21% 18.48% I 40 $8, % 38.21% 33.30% 42.95% 32.14% 15.47% 3.15% 35.00% Not Classified, Estimated, or Split 18 Study Area 360 $72, % 23.82% 30.45% 46.85% 19.58% 8.40% 4.75% 12.51%

13 Interactive MVA Map:

14 Falling in the lowest three MVA categories (G, H, and I) are: 89 of the City s 360 block groups (24.7%) 21.7% of the City s population More people live in the bottom two MVA categories (H and I) than the top two (A and B) All H and I block groups are found north of Delmar. Distressed Areas often have significant physical and social assets despite struggles with vacancy and crime.

1) Sheer Numbers of Vacant Properties vs.

both lots and buildings) 2,012 city blocks are up to

15 1) Sheer Numbers of Vacant Properties vs. Resources 2) Private Owners control Majority of Vacant Land + Buildings 3) The 30% Vacant Block (incl. both lots and buildings) 2,012 city blocks are up to 30% vacant by acreage (34.3% of all City Blocks) 698 city blocks are 31-60% vacant by acreage (11.9% of all City Blocks)

16 LOTS Heat Map BUILDINGS Heat Map

17 Develop CDGB comprehensive plan (Detroit, Wilmington) Assess changes in the market over time (Phila., Baltimore, Pittsburgh) Guide capital budget (Detroit) Evaluate development activities (Pittsburgh, Phila., Houston, Detroit, cities in NJ) Focus code enforcement (Phila., Baltimore) Target demolition and acquisition activities (Baltimore, Phila., Detroit) Select transformative, tipping point projects (Phila., Baltimore, Pittsburgh) Engage partners philanthropic, non-profit in coordinated efforts to rebuild neighborhoods (Baltimore, Milwaukee) Guide federal Neighborhood Stabilization Investment (States of PA & NJ, Detroit)

21 LCRA Tax Abatement Applications Limiting terms of tax abatements in healthier real estate markets where subsidy may not be necessary for development CDA NOFA Application Scoring Projects in Middle Markets receive extra points for CDA s NOFAs. Social Indicators Overlay Adding social variables to the MVA that speak to a neighborhood s health beyond its real estate market

26 Rise and TRF Partnered to add Social Layers to MVA Measures Distance/Access to: Health Clinics and Hospitals Schools (Public, Private, Charter) Measures Social Dynamics such as: Black-white Racial Segregation Income/Poverty Educational Attainment People-based Health Indicators Medicare/Medicaid Coverage Childhood Lead Poisoning Incidence

27 Indicators include: % Private student enrollment (ACS 2012) % at least High School educational attainment (ACS 2012) % at least Bachelor s Degree educational attainment (ACS 2012)

28 Indicators include: Number of Human Services Nonprofits within 3 miles Number of Health/Medicine Nonprofits within 3 miles Number of Other Nonprofits within 3 miles

30 The beginning not the be-all, end-all of determining investments. MVA is typically layered with asset mapping/social indicators to produce a broader picture of neighborhood health Many distressed market government interventions informed by the MVA center on: Productive/attractive reuse of vacant land Targeted demolition funds Land assemblage for redevelopment People-based investments that better quality of life (as opposed to building, for example, for-sale housing where the market might not bear it)

The Data Driven Community

The Data Driven Community CHARLOTTE DATA DAY Using Data for Community Development University of North Carolina at Charlotte March, 2013 The Reinvestment Fund builds wealth and opportunity for lowwealth