Factors affecting Residential Property Values in a Small Historic Canadian University Town

Transcription

1 Factors affecting Residential Property Values in a Small Historic Canadian University Town John A. Janmaat October 20, / 21

2 In Nova Scotia In Nova Scotia Wolfville Demographics #1 Demographics #2 2 / 21

3 Wolfville In Nova Scotia Wolfville Demographics #1 Demographics #2 3 / 21

4 Demographics #1 In Nova Scotia Wolfville Demographics #1 Demographics #2 Wolfville Nova Scotia Total % Total % Population 3, ,007 Median Age Private households 1, ,020 Rented dwellings , Owner occupied , Total trips to work 1, ,045 Motor vehicle 1, , Walk or bike , / 21

5 Demographics #2 In Nova Scotia Wolfville Demographics #1 Demographics #2 Wolfville Nova Scotia Total % Total % Median Income 16, , Average Earnings 43, , With degree, diploma,... Aged Aged Aged Occupation - total 1, ,420 Education ,375 8 Culture , / 21

6 Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Sound Traffic noise reduces property values by between 0.1% and 2.3% (Nelson, 1982; Wilhelmsson, 2000; Navrud, 2002; Theebe, 2004). Airport noise reduces property values by about 0.6% (Lipscomb, 2003; Nelson, 2004). Access to trasportation or employment can be offsetting. 6 / 21

7 Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Sound Traffic noise reduces property values by between 0.1% and 2.3% (Nelson, 1982; Wilhelmsson, 2000; Navrud, 2002; Theebe, 2004). Airport noise reduces property values by about 0.6% (Lipscomb, 2003; Nelson, 2004). Access to trasportation or employment can be offsetting. Race Premium for racially homogeneous neighbourhoods (Crecine et al., 1967; Maser et al., 1977; Cervero and Duncan, 2004). 6 / 21

8 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Density Premium for near open space, away from density (Stull, 1975; Turner, 2004). 7 / 21

9 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Density Premium for near open space, away from density (Stull, 1975; Turner, 2004). Maintenance Level Premium for separation from rental housing, which is generally not well maintained (Ko Wang et al, 1991). 7 / 21

10 Zoning: Objectives Management of externalities Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Separates conflicting uses, minimizing externality costs. Provides information about externalities to buyers. 8 / 21

11 Zoning: Objectives Management of externalities Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Separates conflicting uses, minimizing externality costs. Provides information about externalities to buyers. Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Fiscal zoning Protection of property values Maintenance of tax base Maintenance of demographic segragation 8 / 21

12 Zoning: Efficiency Efficient if aggregate wellbeing increases relative to market. Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Managing externalities may be welfare increasing. Externality effect should not be detectable if zoning efficient. 9 / 21

13 Zoning: Efficiency Efficient if aggregate wellbeing increases relative to market. Urban Amenities and Externalities #1 Urban Amenities and Externalities #2 Managing externalities may be welfare increasing. Externality effect should not be detectable if zoning efficient. Zoning: Objectives Zoning: Efficiency Fiscal zoning generally inefficient. Opportunities for profitable trade limited. 9 / 21

14 Collection Collection Real Estate Summary #1 Real Estate Summary #2 Sound Observation Summary Property values from MLS records together with selling price. Time: July June files parsed with PERL script. View, paved drive, landscaping, etc. assessed by walk past of all lots. 10 / 21

15 Collection Collection Real Estate Summary #1 Real Estate Summary #2 Sound Observation Summary Property values from MLS records together with selling price. Time: July June files parsed with PERL script. View, paved drive, landscaping, etc. assessed by walk past of all lots. Sound observations Larson-Davis TM Model 712 sound meter Student assistant, summer Back yards of university faculty throughout Wolfville 10 / 21

16 Real Estate Summary #1 Collection Real Estate Summary #1 Real Estate Summary #2 Sound Observation Summary Description Mean Median Min Max Selling Price 136, ,500 28, ,000 Age of home Living space (m 2 ) Lot (m 2 ) 1, ,100.0 Full baths Half baths to town center (km) to center campus (km) Bedrooms Days on market View of water Not historic Driveway paved / 21

17 Real Estate Summary #2 Collection Real Estate Summary #1 Real Estate Summary #2 Sound Observation Summary Description Categories Electric Oil Wood Other Heat Source R-1 R-1A R-2/4 R-8 RCDD Zoning None Free Attached Garage None Young Mature Trees Free Lease Other Title Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Quarter / 21

18 Sound Observation Summary Collection Real Estate Summary #1 Real Estate Summary #2 Sound Observation Summary Site Mean St. Dev. Min. Max. Avg L eq Peak Min L eq Peak Max L eq Peak / 21

19 Sound Profile Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 Northing Main Street Acadia University 10 Railroad Track Highway Monitoring Transactions Easting 14 / 21

20 Surface Generation Surface Interpolation Methods Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 15 / 21

21 Surface Generation Surface Interpolation Methods Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 Simple Arithmetic Average Distance Weighted Average Spatial OLS Forecast Polynomial Surface 15 / 21

22 Surface Generation Surface Interpolation Methods Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Simple Arithmetic Average Distance Weighted Average Spatial OLS Forecast Polynomial Surface Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 No method produced a surface that adds significant explanatory power to hedonic regression. 15 / 21

23 Model Selection Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 Method: Hedonic Regression. Common forms are linear and logarithmic Box-Cox transformation can provide information 16 / 21

24 Model Selection Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Method: Hedonic Regression. Common forms are linear and logarithmic Box-Cox transformation can provide information Box Cox Likelihood Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 log Likelihood % λ 16 / 21

25 Diagnostics Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 Linear Square Root Logarithmic Stat. P Stat. P Stat. P R df n F D-W B-P Moran / 21

26 Results #1 Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 Square Root Factor β P Trad P HCCM % (Intercept) Age Age Floor (m 2 ) Floor Lot (m 2 ) Lot Full Baths Half Baths / 21

27 Results #2 Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 Square Root Factor β P Trad P HCCM % to Acadia (km) to Main (km) Zone R-1A Zone R-2/ Zone R Zone RCDD Not Historic Paved Drive / 21

28 Results #3 Sound Profile Surface Generation Model Selection Diagnostics Results #1 Results #2 Results #3 Square Root Factor β P Trad P HCCM Year Year Year Year Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV / 21

29 s Home age, size, etc. as expected Age effect rather small. s 21 / 21

30 s s Home age, size, etc. as expected Age effect rather small. Sound level and view not detectable effect. Efficiently managed by zoning or sound level too low. 21 / 21

31 s s Home age, size, etc. as expected Age effect rather small. Sound level and view not detectable effect. Efficiently managed by zoning or sound level too low. Historic designation increases value. 21 / 21

32 s Home age, size, etc. as expected Age effect rather small. Sound level and view not detectable effect. s Efficiently managed by zoning or sound level too low. Historic designation increases value. Zoning strong effect, single family most valuable. 21 / 21

33 s Home age, size, etc. as expected Age effect rather small. Sound level and view not detectable effect. s Efficiently managed by zoning or sound level too low. Historic designation increases value. Zoning strong effect, single family most valuable. Proximity to Acadia negatively related to price Zoning not efficient with respect to this externality. 21 / 21