Office Snapshot Q4 2017

Transcription

1 Lettable Office Area (Ping) Rent (NTD/ping/mo) Vacancy Rate (%) MARKETBEAT Office Snapshot Q TAIPEI OFFICE Economic Indicators Grade A Indicators Grade A Rent & Vacancy Rate Q2 17 Q3 17 GDP Growth 2.3% 3.1% Service Sector GDP Growth 1.5% 2.6% CPI Growth 0.6% 0.8% Source: Ministry of the Interior Note: Growth figure is y-o-y growth Average Rent (NT$/ping/mo) Q3 17 Q4 17 2,480 2,480 Vacancy Rate 9.7% 9.5% 2,600 2,550 2,500 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 Past 12-Month Growth 12-Month Forecast Economy Taiwan s GDP increased 3.1% y-o-y to NT$4.4 trillion (US$147,098 million) in Q3, with service sector growth of 2.6% y- o-y on rising freight transport demand and wholesale trade volume. CPI showed slight growth at 0.8% y-o-y. GDP is forecast to increase 2.6% for the full year. Market Overview s Grade A office rent held firm, averaging NT$2,480 per ping per month (US$82.5) at the end of Q4. Rental levels were stable across all office submarkets. Amid strong demand for office space and declining vacancy, rental flexibility and concessions on offer are increasingly hard to come by in Xinyi District. The citywide vacancy rate decreased 0.2 percentage points q-oq to 9.5%. Among submarkets, space tightened the most in Nanjing/Songjiang District at 8.9 percentage points q-o-q thanks to take-up at a MRT joint development building. Cumulative net absorption through the end of the year amounted to 30,000 pings. Owner-occupied space at the Taiwan Cooperative Bank Headquarters Bldg contributed 24,100 pings of net absorption. Excluding owner-occupied space, Xinyi and Nanjing/Songjiang District recorded net absorption of 3,440 and 3,240 pings, respectively, owing to robust absorption at new office buildings. Rent Vacancy Rate Supply Pipeline 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20, year Historical Average = 13,000 ping 10, A number of retailers opened supporting offices in Xinyi District, which has traditionally been the city s strongest submarket for luxury boutique brands. On the heels of Hermes, LVMH (Watch and Jewellery) s openings in months ago, in Q4 Porsche, BVLGARI, Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior Couture and Fendi all opened new offices in Xinyi. Outlook Forecasted new office supply of 52,300 pings in 2018 will likely fuel relocations. Renovations at some buildings in Dunbei/Minsheng may cause tenants there to move into newer buildings like Cathy Minsheng Jianguo Building in Dunbei/Minsheng District. The available land for commercial development increasingly becomes scarce in Xinyi Planned District. Despite the expected launch of Nan Shan Plaza in the first quarter of 2018, the next major new office project scheduled for completion is Fubon A25 in With a limited supply pipeline, the market s average rent is forecast to be on the rise in the future. cushmanwakefield.com

2 Office Snapshot Q SUBMARKET INVENTORY (Ping) VACANCY RATE NEW COMPLETIONS YEAR-TO-DATE (Ping) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (Ping) GRADE A RENT NTD/Ping/MO USD/SF/MO EUR/SF/MO Western 40, % 0 0 2,100 US$ Nanjing/Songjiang 36, % 0 8,000 2,030 US$ Dunbei/Minsheng 195, % 29,600 28,500 2,270 US$ Dunnan 103, % 0 0 2,410 US$ Xinyi 301, % 0 51,700 2,950 US$ City 677, % 29,600 88,200 2,480 US$ USD= TWD, 1EUR= TWD as of 12 th Dec Key Leasing Transactions Q PROPERTY SUBMARKET TENANT PING LEASE TYPE Cathay Landmark Xinyi Porsche 440 Relocation Cathay Landmark Xinyi BVLGARI 180 Relocation Cathay Landmark Xinyi Louis Vuitton 160 Relocation Cathay Landmark Xinyi Christian Dior Couture 160 Relocation Cathay Landmark Xinyi Fendi 90 Relocation Farglory Financial Center Xinyi Kaiying online 160 Relocation Farglory Financial Center Xinyi K.S.Terminals 150 New Lease Farglory Financial Center Xinyi UNICO Business Centre 130 New Lease Farglory Finanical Center Xinyi Jingqun online 130 New Lease Union Jiajia Building Nanjing/Songjiang Versum Materials 560 Relocation Union Jiajia Building Nanjing/Songjiang Taishin International Bank 560 Relocation Union Jiajia Building Nanjing/Songjiang Chung-Lu Construction 560 Relocation Union Jiajia Building Nanjing/Songjiang ITOCHU Taiwan 560 Relocation Union Jiajia Building Nanjing/Songjiang Maxim Integrated 560 Relocation Fubon Nanjing Bldg. Nanjing/Songjiang Common Wealth 470 Relocation Wango Bldg. Dunbei/Minsheng Dow AgroSciences 180 Relocation Wango Bldg. Dunbei/Minsheng Fonterra Brands (Far East) 160 Relocation Significant Projects Under Construction PROPERTY SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT PING COMPLETION DATE Nan Shan Plaza Xinyi Deloitte & Touche, Executive Centre 29, Cathy Minsheng Jianguo Building Dunbei/Minsheng - 11, UDN Zhongxiao Building Xinyi - 11, Dome Xinyi - 11, Yuanta Life New Headquarters Nanjing/Songjiang Yuanta Group 8, China Life Headquarters Note: All figures are approximate. Dunbei/Minsheng China Life, China Development Financial 16,

3 Office Snapshot Q Contact Billy Yen Head of Taiwan Wendy Hsueh Head of Consulting and Research Taiwan James Shepherd Research, Greater China Tel: Charlie Yang Head of Valuation & Advisory Services Taiwan Mei Chiang Associate Head of Tenant Representation, Corporate Client, Taiwan About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop and live. The firm s 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries provide deep local and global insights that create significant value for occupiers and investors around the world. In Greater China, the firm has a co-branded presence under the name of Cushman & Wakefield and operates 20 offices in the region. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenues of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services, global occupier services, investment & asset management, project management, tenant representation and valuation & advisory. To learn more, please visit Disclaimer This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources which Cushman & Wakefield believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. Cushman & Wakefield shall not be held responsible for and shall be released and held harmless from any decision made together with any risks associated with such decision in reliance upon any expression of opinion in the report. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part Cushman & Wakefield All rights reserved.

4 Industrial-Office Snapshot Q TAIPEI INDUSTRIAL/OFFICE Economic Indicators Q2 17 Q3 17 GDP Growth 2.3% 3.1% Secondary Sector Growth 2.9% 4.1% CPI Growth 0.6% 0.8% Source: Ministry of the Interior Note: Growth figure is y-o-y growth NHTP Industrial Market Statistics (Xihu Section) Q3 17 Q4 17 Rent (NT$/ping/mo) 1,280 1,280 Vacancy Rate 3.7% 1.8% Past 12-Month Growth 12-Month Forecast Economy Taiwan s GDP increased 3.1% y-o-y to NT$4.4 trillion (US$147,098 million) in Q3, supported by industrial growth in the production of mobile devices. The Secondary Sector posted 4.1% y-o-y growth in Q3, while CPI heated up to 0.8%. GDP is forecast to increase 2.6% for the full year. Market Overview No new supply of industrial/office buildings was added in Neihu Technology Park (NHTP) in Q4. Thanks to strong tenant demand, Chong Hong New Century Building in Xihu Section achieved an occupancy rate above 90%. This helped the section s vacancy rate recover to Q1 levels at 1.8%. In Wende Section, stable take-up stemmed from wine companies and retailers. This helped to slightly drive down the vacancy rate in the section to 11.1% at quarter s end. NHTP Industrial/Office Rent & Vacancy Rate (Xihu Section) 1, , Jiuzong Section recorded mostly small-scale leasing transactions. After 900-ping of space was released by Co-Operative AMC at Wei Mon Industry Building, Jiuzong Section finished Q4 with a vacancy rate of 25.0%, which is a one-year high. The vacancy rate is highest in Jiuzhong among all three I/O sections. 1,200 1,150 1,100 1, Rent (NTD/ping/mo) Vacancy Rate (%) In Q4, rent in NHTP stayed firm on the whole. Wende Section s average rent fell 1% q-o-q to NT$980, while Xihu and Jiuzong Sections remained at NT$1,280 and NT$930 per ping per month, respectively. Capital values in each section also were stable in Q4: Xihu at NT$520, ,000, Wende at NT$380, ,000 and Jiuzong at NT$350, ,000 per ping. NHTP recoded three major investment deals in Q4. The most significant transaction was Chunghwa Post s NT$6.42 billion en bloc acquisition of Chong Hong New Century Building in Xihu Section. This marked the largest investment in Wende Section witnessed Jean Group s NT$298 million sale of about 700 ping of space on the 6/F and 7/F at Sanpu 21 Building to Gaofu Investment. Also in Wende, Sintronic Technology purchased a 570-ping space on the 3/F at Thames Building for NT$258 million. Outlook In 2018, merely 2,400 ping of new supply is scheduled to be added in NHTP. Among this, the most notable project is a new building at Ln. 10, Jihu Rd., Xihu Section. Given solid demand, little availability and an historically low vacancy rate, Xihu Section is expected to record slight rental growth. Wende Section also boasts steady take-up demand to support rent levels. Jiuzong Section, on the other hand, with relatively high take-up pressure, is likely to record flat rent. cushmanwakefield.com

5 Industrial-Office Snapshot Q Contact Billy Yen Head of Taiwan Wendy Hsueh Head of Consulting and Research Taiwan James Shepherd Research, Greater China Tel: Charlie Yang Head of Valuation & Advisory Services Taiwan Jessie Lee Associate Head of Agency Department Taiwan About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop and live. The firm s 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries provide deep local and global insights that create significant value for occupiers and investors around the world. In Greater China, the firm has a co-branded presence under the name of Cushman & Wakefield and operates 20 offices in the region. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenues of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services, global occupier services, investment & asset management, project management, tenant representation and valuation & advisory. To learn more, please visit Disclaimer This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources which Cushman & Wakefield believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. Cushman & Wakefield shall not be held responsible for and shall be released and held harmless from any decision made together with any risks associated with such decision in reliance upon any expression of opinion in the report. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part Cushman & Wakefield All rights reserved.

6 Retail Snapshot Q Taiwan TAIWAN RETAIL Economic Indicators Prime Average Retail Rents Q Significant Q Store Openings Q2 17 Q3 17 GDP Growth 2.3% 3.1% CPI Growth 0.6% 0.8% Source: ate-general of Budget, Accounting and Statistics Sales of General Merchandise Cumulative Sales of General Merchandise (NT$bn) Sales of General Merchandise to October (NT$bn) Source: Department of Statistics, Ministry of Economic Affairs Significant Projects Under Construction Past 12- Month Growth Note: Only street front shops are taken into account. All data are based on gross floor area unless otherwise specified. Rentals are exclusive of management fees and other outgoings. 1 ping = sq ft = 3.3 sq m Note: NT$/US$ as at 12 December 2017 Retail Hub Location Tenant Area (ping) Ximen Xining S. Rd. Cosmed 180 Railway Station Zhongxiao Vacancy Rental Range Rental Range 12-Month Rate (NT$/ping/mo) (US$/sq ft/mo) Outlook Zhongxiao ,000-20, ~18.7 Railway Station Zhongshan/ Nanjing 6.2 9,000-13, ~ ,000-13, ~12.2 Ximen ,000-20, ~18.7 Nanyang St. 1828herbal tea 18 Sec 4, Zhongxiao E. Rd. Project Name District Opening Date City Link Neihu ATT 4 Life Breeze Nan Shan Neihu Dist., City Zhongshan Dist., City Xinyi Dist., City Jan Oct 2016 Jan Oct ,010.1 Oct 2016 Oct Niko and 220 GFA (ping) Q ,400 Q ,000 Q ,000 Economy Taiwan s retail sales increased 1.5% y-o-y to NT$1,010.1 billion (US$33,641 million) over the first 10 months of For the most recent month of data, retail sales increased 6.5% y-o-y to NT$116.6 billion in October. Due to rising footfall traffic stimulated by holiday shopping, hypermarket sales increased 12.3% y-o-y and supermarket sales increased 9.7% y-o-y in October. Department store sales increased 6.5% with the introduction of a number of new brands that drew in customers. Market Overview The vacancy rate in City s main retail hubs remained stable in Q4. Ximen Retail Hub continued to perform well, despite recording a 0.1 percentage point dip in vacancy on the quarter to 1.8% due to lease expirations. In Zhongxiao Retail Hub, some landlords started to adjust rent, which stimulated take-up and in turn caused the vacancy rate to decline 0.5 percentage points q-o-q to 3.7%. If considering pop-up stores as vacant stores, the vacancy rate finished the quarter at 7.9% in Zhongxiao Retail Hub. A rise in tourism traffic helped drive rental growth in Ximen Retail Hub. With traditional retailers tending to be unable to afford the high rent, retail shops are filling up with souvenir, cosmetics, fast fashion and sports retailers. The development has impacted the retail diversity of Ximen. In Ximen and Railway Station Retail hub, retail shops with arcade claw machines expanded rapidly in Q4. The popular stores feature creative products for sale, F&B options, and from an operational standpoint enjoy low labor costs. New supply for the quarter included City Link Songshan ll in the north of Songshan l. Among tenants, the mall features a popular Tsutaya bookstore and Wired Tokyo café. Outlook Ahead to 2018, Ximen Retail Hub will likely witness increasing rent on the whole due to its ongoing role as a tourist destination. Elsewhere, an upcoming project in Railway Station Retail Hub is Osaka Merchant Marine Corporation Branch. Due to be completed at the end of 2018, the property is planned to feature a bookstore, retail shops, exhibition space and a film-themed restaurant. It is expected to boost the commercial atmosphere in Zhongxiao W. Rd., and attract tourists to the retail hub. cushmanwakefield.com

7 Retail Snapshot Q Taiwan Contact Billy Yen Head of Taiwan Wendy Hsueh Head of Consulting and Research Taiwan James Shepherd Research, Greater China Tel: Charlie Yang Head of Valuation & Advisory Services Taiwan Jessie Lee Associate Head of Agency Department Taiwan About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop and live. The firm s 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries provide deep local and global insights that create significant value for occupiers and investors around the world. In Greater China, the firm has a co-branded presence under the name of Cushman & Wakefield and operates 20 offices in the region. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenues of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services, global occupier services, investment & asset management, project management, tenant representation and valuation & advisory. To learn more, please visit Disclaimer This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources which Cushman & Wakefield believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. Cushman & Wakefield shall not be held responsible for and shall be released and held harmless from any decision made together with any risks associated with such decision in reliance upon any expression of opinion in the report. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part Cushman & Wakefield All rights reserved. cushmanwakefield.com

8 Investment Snapshot Q Market Highlights Figure 1 The market closed 2017 with NT$67.1 billion (US$ 2,234.3 million) worth of property investment excluding land trades, up 6.9% over the previous year and ending a 5-year skid. Investment volume in Q4, excluding land transactions, totaled NT$NT$16.7 billion (US$555.6 million), accounting for 25% of annual consideration. The market was active in well-developed industrial-office parks, where these deals made up almost 90% of quarterly volume. Traditional industries are tapping into income property investment, adding fresh momentum to the market. The land market has surged 40% by consideration since 2016, totaling NT$123.8 billion (US$ 4,123.2 million) in 2017 and breaking through the NT$100 billion milestone. Low yields for domestic property remain below investors expectations for return. Momentum may still be slow going into The market is expected to remain driven by demand from traditional industries pivoting to property investment and local corporate expansion. Total Major Investment Volume (NT$ bn) Author Wendy Hsueh Consulting and Research, Taiwan wendy.hj.hsueh@cushwake.com Contacts James Shepherd Research, Greater China Tel: james.shepherd@cushwake.com Source: Cushman & Wakefield research Note: Data for 2017 is as of 29 th Dec. cushmanwakefield.com INVESTMENT MARKET SNAPSHOT 1

9 Q Economic Overview Taiwan s GDP increased 3.1% y-o-y to NT$4.4 trillion (US$147,098 million) in Q3, with the services sector expanding 2.6% y-o-y on rising freight transport demand and wholesale trade volume. CPI showed slight growth at 0.8% y-o-y. GDP is forecast to increase 2.6% for the full year. Market Overview The market closed 2017 with NT$67.1 billion (US$ 2,234.3 million) worth of property investment excluding land trades a result of slow momentum and lack of large deals of a value over NT$10 billion each. The market was mainly driven by corporate owner-occupier demand. Volume edged up 6.9% in 2017 over the previous year, ending a 5-year skid, yet remained south of the 5-year average of NT$77.3 billion (US$ 2,575.2 million). Investment volume in Q4, excluding land transactions, totaled NT$NT$16.7 billion (US$555.6 million), accounting for 25% of annual consideration. The most significant deal was made by Chunghwa Post, which acquired Changhong New Century Corporate Headquarters for NT$6.4 billion (US$42.8 million), contributing 10% to the year s sales volume. The market was active in well-developed industrial-office parks, where these deals made up almost 90% of quarterly volume. Notable deals included Hotai Leasing s purchase of a factory in Wugu Dist. for NT$1.4 billion (US$9.2 million), and Taiwan Asset Management s acquisition of an industrial-office building in Sijhih Dist. New City during the pre-construction period for NT$1.2 billion (US$8.1 million). Traditional industries are tapping into income property investment. YiJin invested NT$0.6 billion (US$4.1 million) and NT$0.5 billion (US$3.3 million), respectively, in a 1,140-ping industrial-office space in Nankang Software Park and 536 ping of Pacific Business Building in. Both properties were sold with leases to generate ready income. Also in Nankang, YiJin bought a 1,640-ping industrial site for its headquarters project as well as rental income potential. Demand for logistics property was solid and well backed by a blooming e-commerce industry. One of the major players, Cathay Life Insurance, acquired a logistics facility in Yangmei, Taoyuan for NT$0.5 billion. The property was located in proximity to Logistic Republic Yangmei, a new and growing business in Cathay s portfolio. In contrast to a slow market for commercial properties, the land market has surged 40% by consideration since 2016, totaling NT$123.8 billion (US$ 4,123.2 million) in 2017 and breaking through the NT$100 billion milestone. Investment was driven by developers, corporate expansions and urban regeneration participants. On the other hand, the tender market for land development rights remained muted, contributing less than 3% to the year s annual total in land sales. Table 1 STATS ON THE GO Economic Indicators Q2 17 Q3 17 GDP Growth 2.3% 3.1% Prime Leading Loan Rate 2.63% 2.63% CPI Growth 0.6% 0.8% Source: Ministry of the Interior Table 2 Investment Volume Deals NT$bn Previous 12 Months Change q-o-q (%) Office % Retail % I/O % Industrial % Hospitality % Mixed/Others 0-100% Overall % Source: Cushman & Wakefield research *Note: includes land and en-bloc transactions Figure 2 Investment Volume by Sector (NT$ bn) Q Q Q Q Hospitality Industrial I/O Office Retail Mixed/Others Source: Cushman & Wakefield research cushmanwakefield.com INVESTMENT MARKET SNAPSHOT 2

10 Outlook Taiwan s government recently lowered the announced land values used for taxation purposes in six major cities. This will benefit insurers and land development rights investors whose property holding costs would significantly decrease as a result. But the county-andcity-level direct elections in 2018 are likely to add uncertainty to the market, and low yields for domestic property remain below investors expectations for return. The market is expected to remain driven by demand from traditional industries pivoting to property investment and local corporate expansions. Momentum may still be slow going into Table 3 Significant Investment Transactions, Q PROPERTY PURCHASER LOCATION SECTOR PRICE (NT$ BN) Changhong New Century Corporate Headquarters Chunghwa Post Neihu Dist., City I/O 6.4 Factory in Wugu Hotai Leasing Wugu Dist., New City I/O 1.4 Industrial Office Building (pre-construction) in Sijhih Nankang Software Park Phase I Taiwan Asset Management Sijhih Dist., New City I/O 1.2 YiJin Nankang Dist., City I/O 0.6 Pacific Business Building YiJin Daan Dist. City Office 0.5 Logistics facilities in Yangmei Cathay Life Insurance Yangmei Dist. Taoyuan City Industrial 0.5 Billy Yen Head of Taiwan billy.pl.yen@cushwake.com Wendy Hsueh Head of Consulting and Research Taiwan wendy.hj.hsueh@cushwake.com James Shepherd Research, Greater China Tel: james.shepherd@cushwake.com Charlie Yang Head of Valuation & Advisory Services Taiwan charlie.ct.yang@cushwake.com Eagle Lai Senior Associate Head of Investment & Advisory Services Taiwan eagle.yi.lai@cushwake.com Disclaimer This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources which Cushman & Wakefield believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. Cushman & Wakefield shall not be held responsible for and shall be released and held harmless from any decision made together with any risks associated with such decision in reliance upon any expression of opinion in the report. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part Cushman & Wakefield All rights reserved.