Houston office market Sublease and activity overview

Transcription

1 Houston office market Sublease and activity overview July, 2016

2 What you need to know about the current state of the Houston office sublease market million square feet of sublease space now available Largest blocks of sublease space located in Energy Corridor, CBD, Galleria, and Greenspoint Over 5 million SF of sublease inventory here for the long term (5+ years of term remaining) Velocity of subleases coming to market not slowing Significant subleases added in 2016 include Shell, BHP Billiton, BG Group and Marathon Oil bringing over 5 million SF to market Subleases not being absorbed Sublease space coming to market five times faster than it s being leased Only a handful of spaces larger than 20,000 SF leased so far this year; 2015 activity similar Only four percent of current subleases will revert to direct basis in 2016 Average sublease signed this year is tiny smaller tenants taking advantage of options Source: JLL Research 2

3 Sublease space inventory overview

4 CBD and the Energy Corridor (Katy Freeway, Westchase) lead in sublease space availability Other 1,997,119 CBD 2,379,857 Woodlands 482,760 Greenspoint 932,737 Galleria 1,057,805 Katy Fwy West 3,038,209 Westchase 1,374,620 Katy Fwy East 444,715 Source: JLL Research *This dataset reviews all sublease availabilities in office properties within the Houston market. 5

5 Sublease space in Houston s top submarkets more than double the average inventory 10,000,000 SF of Sublease Available 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Greenspoint Sublet Total Avail SF CBD Sublet Total Avail SF Katy Fwy Sublet Total Avail SF Greenway Sublet Total Avail SF Woodlands Sublet Total Avail SF Westchase Sublet Total Avail SF Galleria Sublet Total Avail SF OPEC Thanksgiving Meeting 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Source: JLL Research Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q *This dataset reviews all sublease availabilities in Class A and B properties within the top seven office submarkets, regardless of size. 6

6 Oil Key volatility Ideas to sending remember shockwaves in 2015 through (and 2016) market: on average, 580,000 SF of subleases coming online monthly 2,500,000 2,000,000 2,137,058 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 1,687, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,887 0 January, 2015 February, 2015 March, 2015 April, 2015 May, 2015 June, 2015 July, 2015 August, 2015 September, 2015 October, 2015 November, 2015 December, 2015 January, 2016 February, 2016 March, 2016 April, 2016 May, 2016 SF of sublease space available June, 2016 July, 2016 Source: JLL Research *This dataset reviews all sublease availabilities in Class A and B properties within office submarkets in Houston. 7

7 Sublease overhang will not remedy in the short term: 5.3 million SF of sublease options have 5+ years remaining More than 10 years term remaining 1,452,274 12% Unknown term remaining 392,849 3% Less than 6 months term remaining 424,003 4% 6 months to 1 year term remaining 828,557 7% 1 year to 2 years term remaining 1,613,483 14% 5 years to 10 years term remaining 3,474,676 30% 2 years to 5 years term remaining 3,521,980 30% Source: JLL Research This dataset reviews all sublease availabilities in office properties within the Houston market - Data pulled 7/13/2016 8

8 Tenants did not flock to sublease opportunities in 2015; leasing activity among subleases was very light Subleases signed in Subleases signed in 2015 above 20,000 SF 16 Multi-floor subleases signed in 2015 Fewer than 10 Total sublease space leased in million SF Average deal size 8,378 SF Top industry taking sublease space Energy Source: JLL Research 9

9 Tenants currently taking advantage of sublease opportunities are smaller in size; only seven full floors leased YTD Subleases signed in Subleases signed in 2016 above 20,000 SF 7 Subleases signed in 2016 above 10,000 SF 21 Multi-floor subleases signed in Total sublease space leased in ,529 SF Average deal size 5,732 SF Source: JLL Research data pulled 7/13/

10 Overall leasing activity consistently weak, will impact absorption of sublease space and new construction 8,000,000 6,000, Yr Average Quarterly Leasing Activity OPEC Thanksgiving Meeting 4,000,000 2,000, Source: JLL Research 11

11 Challenges arising in the market

12 M&A Activity leaves uncertainty in the market?? Impact will continue to be felt in the Houston office market via space contractions and consolidations Full M&A impact on market typically delayed by 6-12 months could see additional major players involved, especially if oil prices continue to remain around $50/bbl 13

13 Office market forecast - looking ahead into 2016 and 2017 Vacancy Nearly 3 million SF of new deliveries remains un-leased; this combined with space contractions and M&A activity may push vacancy over 20% market wide Rents Published market rents flatten; street-level deals will offer significantly discounted market rents with owners focusing on maintaining occupancy rather than high rates Concessions Thanks to weak deal velocity and cautious tenants in the market, landlords will continue to offer increased concessions (flexible lease terms, free rent, tenant improvements) Key takeaways While oil prices are still recovering Deal velocity continues slowdown, contract rents will fall; landlord concessions increase Spec construction will remain on hold due to weak demand, lending tightening Job reductions continue as E&P/energy service companies slash headcounts M&A activity expected to increase (combination of debt issues for small and mid-size companies and oil prices around $50/bbl) Why this matters Short term leases will be the focus in 2016 More and more sublease space will arrive to market, may grow to 13 million SF by 2017 Market will continue to be tenant-favorable 14

14 Top themes impacting the office CRE market Sublease space continues its mount Over 11.7 million SF of sublease options now available across the Houston office market Sublease supply is currently double the ten-year historical average, while demand continues to lag behind New deliveries add pressure to vacancy Over 1.0 million square feet has delivered without preleasing commitments in 2016 As a result, total vacancy ticked up to 18.5 percent during Q2 Leasing demand unable to keep pace with supply Failed to surpass 1.5 million square feet in total leasing activity for the first time in the last 15 years Availability is over 26.6 percent, meaning one in four floors is available marketwide Source: JLL Research 15