Second Quarter 2018 / Industrial Market Report. Market Overview

Transcription

1 Greater Toronto Area Market Facts 2.1% Availability rate in the Greater Toronto Area $7.20 psf Average asking net rent in the Greater Toronto Area 18 Number of properties in the Greater Toronto Area with more than 250,000 sf available 6.4 msf Industrial space under construction in the Greater Toronto Area Market Overview The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) industrial market s fundamentals improved steadily through the second quarter of Availability continued to decline across most submarkets as rents climbed even higher into $7-plus territory. New supply has accelerated, as 1.5 million square feet (msf ) was added to the under-construction pipeline during the second quarter, bringing the total amount of space underway to 6.4 msf. First-half building completions total 3.2 msf equivalent to nearly three quarters of 2017 s full-year result. By year-end, a further 2.7 msf is scheduled for completion, putting 2018 on pace to exceed last year s total by more than 30% as developers respond to strong demand. Though not reflected in the second-quarter numbers, the third quarter is already off to a strong start with Amazon s blockbuster announcement that it has struck a deal for a new purpose-built 1-msf fulfillment centre in Caledon. A noteworthy and growing trend in the market is that of food warehouse and distribution users taking occupancy of brand-new facilities in submarkets across the GTA. Food-sector tenants have accounted for more than 15% of space leased and/or occupied in new buildings (completed and under construction) in the GTA over the past 18 months. Some of the larger deals included The Kraft Heinz Company (774,614 sf ), Sobeys (383,194 sf ), Congebec (228,000 sf ) and Gay Lea Foods Co-operative (218,317 sf ). The recent announcement from Gordon Food Service that it will build a new 330,000-sf state-of-the-art distribution centre in the Town of Ajax bolsters this trend. Uncertainty surrounds the impacts of the tariffs recently imposed by the U.S. government on Canadian goods on industrial space users. Most reports indicate that it is too early to predict the long-term fall-out. However, most feel that the impacts will not be substantial. In the GTA, the greatest impact is expected to be felt by the automotive manufacturing industry, largely concentrated in Brampton, Oakville and Oshawa.

2 GTA Market Monitor The overall GTA availability rate dropped a further 40 basis points (bps) from the end of the first quarter to 2.1% at the end of the second quarter down 110 bps year-over-year. Availability in GTA East increased during the second quarter, while the GTA Central, North and West markets each experienced a decrease. GTA North recorded the largest decline in availability, falling 70 bps to finish the quarter at 1.7%. This was closely followed by GTA West, which posted a 50-bps decline during the second quarter, to 2.7%. Large lease transactions characterized the second quarter. The Forzani Group signed a lease for a massive 1.3-msf facility, to be constructed at Hurontario St. in Brampton. Meanwhile, Olympia Tile International renewed its lease (844,069 sf ) at 100 Royal Group Cres. in Vaughan, and DHL Global Forwarding inked a deal for 555,105 sf at the former Sears warehouse at 9501 Highway 50 in Vaughan. On the investment front, second-quarter 2018 sales volume rose $7 million quarter-over-quarter to $787 million, and the average sale price per square foot (psf ) edged up by $17 during the second quarter to $179 psf. The GTA s net asking rental rate continued its upward trajectory in the second quarter, reaching an average of $7.20 psf. Once again, the highest average net asking rent could be found in GTA North at $7.97 psf, while GTA East continued to be the most economical market with an average of $6.33 psf. Market conditions will affect businesses that are very price-sensitive. Rapidly increasing rents, combined with recent interest-rate hikes and tariffs on steel, mean that users seeking to relocate to new-built modern facilities when their leases expire may find themselves in a situation where their rents have nearly doubled. Second-quarter completions totalled 1.9 msf in seven buildings, with the bulk of deliveries coming in the GTA West and GTA North markets. A further 36 buildings (totalling 6.4 msf ) were under construction, with GTA West leading the way. An additional 37 buildings were in the preleasing pipeline, with the potential to add a further 12.6 msf across the region if built. Market Inventory Total Available Area Average Net Asking Rent Construction Pipeline 875 msf 18.7 msf $7.20 psf 6.4 msf / 36 Buildings Availability Trends Occupancy Cost Trends 40 5% $12 Total Available Area (msf) % 3% 2% 1% Availability Rate Avg. Gross Rent $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 0 0% Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Direct Available Area (sf ) Sublet Available Area (sf ) Availability Rate (%) Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Avg. Net Asking Rate ($psf ) Avg. Additional Rent ($psf ) Market Inventory Direct Avail. Area Sublet Avail. Area Total Avail. Area Avail. Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rent Avg. Addt'l Rent Avg. Sale Price Current Completions Under Construction Preleasing GTA Central 258,457,443 4,218, ,595 4,509, % $7.56 $4.37 $ ,692,743 1,322,515 GTA East 48,021, ,403 35, , % $6.33 $3.63 $ , ,000 GTA North 185,526,899 2,568, ,955 3,106, % $7.97 $3.71 $ ,503 1,300,327 1,036,113 GTA West 383,316,403 8,533,402 1,779,066 10,312, % $6.94 $3.22 $194 1,317,895 2,734,114 8,346,750 Greater Toronto 874,635,060 16,094,951 2,642,649 18,737, % $7.20 $3.73 $179 1,868,398 6,397,552 12,664,378

3 GTA Central Market Monitor Available space in the Central market decreased 10 bps quarter-over-quarter to 1.7%. The average asking net rent of $7.56 psf represented an increase of.17 during the quarter. The Central market held steady in the second quarter, with minimal change to availability rates across all submarkets. The highest average asking net rents are found within the City of Toronto ($10.86 psf ), while Etobicoke offered the most affordable rent at $6.15 psf during the second quarter. Notable lease transactions included Tomato King inking a new 20-year deal for 134,150 sf at 191 Evans Ave. in Etobicoke, Innotech Precision leasing 41,887 sf at Novopharm Crt. in Scarborough, and Universal Motion signing a new lease to relocate to 31 City View Dr. in Etobicoke (20,620 sf ). On the sales front, 915 & 945 Lake Shore Blvd. E. (67,700 sf ) traded for $30.9 million in a land exchange deal. Canada Post, which had acquired the building in November 2017 for the same price, flipped it to Toronto Economic Development Corp., which plans to utilize the building for three film and television production studios. Construction commenced on an additional 504,150 sf in the Central market during the second quarter, spread between three projects bringing total square footage under construction to almost 1.7 msf. Notable starts included the future home of The Hillman Group at 1395 Tapscott Rd. (373,000 sf ) in Scarborough, as well as a second building (101,151 sf ) at Investors Group s redevelopment of the former Home Depot distribution centre at 2233 Sheppard Ave. W., following the commencement of an 823,500-sf build kicked off by the Toronto Transit Commission s (TTC) lease of 550,000 sf in the first quarter of Market Inventory Total Available Area Average Net Asking Rent Construction Pipeline 258 msf 4.5 msf $7.56 psf 1.7 msf / 7 Buildings Availability Trends Occupancy Cost Trends 7 5% $14 Total Available Area (msf) % 3% 2% 1% Availability Rate Avg. Gross Rent $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 0 0% Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Direct Available Area (sf ) Sublet Available Area (sf ) Availability Rate (%) Q2' 17 Q3' 17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Avg. Net Asking Rate ($psf ) Avg. Additional Rent ($psf ) Market Inventory Direct Avail. Area Sublet Avail. Area Total Avail. Area Avail. Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rent Avg. Addt'l Rent Avg. Sale Price Current Completions Under Construction Preleasing East York 9,100,881 61, , % $6.98 $4.28 $ Etobicoke 74,946,521 2,107,356 99,161 2,206, % $6.15 $3.16 $ ,000 0 North York 68,089, ,371 65, , % $6.50 $3.96 $ , ,065 Scarborough 65,313,957 1,002, ,815 1,111, % $7.29 $4.33 $ ,078 1,128,450 Toronto 35,934, ,976 17, , % $10.86 $6.12 $ ,000 0 GTA Central 258,457,443 4,218, ,595 4,509, % $7.56 $4.37 $ ,692,743 1,322,515 * Total figures for the GTA Central include additional submarkets not listed above (i.e. York).

4 GTA East Market Monitor Overall, availability in the East market increased 20 bps to 1.7% during the second quarter. Ajax (0.2%) and Whitby (2.3%) performed well, posting drops in availability of 80 bps and 140 bps, respectively. After overall average asking net rents fell to $5.54 psf in the first quarter of 2018, net rent broke the $6-psf mark, rising to $6.33 psf during the second quarter. One of the largest deals of the quarter was for 565,000 sf of manufacturing, warehouse and office space comprising a new corporate headquarters for Kubota Canada. Located on 50 acres in Pickering s new Innovation Corridor immediately east of the York Region/Durham Region border, the facility has the potential for future phased expansion. Likewise, Gordon Food Services leased and broke ground on a new 330,000-sf facility at 200 Salem Rd. N. in Ajax for a state-of-theart food distribution centre. On the sale front, Panattoni Development transferred 1702 Tricont Ave. in Whitby (183,030 sf ) into an internal investment arm at a price of $13.7 million, and 1020 Brock Rd. S. in Pickering was acquired by private Canadian investor Chesben Holdings for $5.6 million at a reported 6.6% cap rate. Construction continued on the new speculative expansion (105,400 sf ) at KingSett s existing 113,400-sf facility at 185 William Smith Dr. in Whitby. Two buildings remain in the preleasing stage in the East market, which would add upwards of 159,000 sf to the inventory if built, including PIRET s 110,000-sf design-build at 980 Thornton Rd. S. which would be a twin to its existing and adjacent 1000 Thornton Rd. S. property. Also of interest, major development moved east into Clarington with Toyota Canada moving forward with construction of a new 350,000-sf Eastern Canada Parts Distribution Centre in Bowmanville. With the Highway 407 East extension to Highways 35/115 on schedule and Metrolinx announcing 2019 construction commencement on four new GO stations, development in Durham s eastern end is intensifying. Market Inventory Total Available Area Average Net Asking Rent Construction Pipeline 48 msf 809,436 sf $6.33 psf 670,368 sf / 2 Buildings Availability Trends Occupancy Cost Trends 3 4% $12 Total Available Area (msf) 2 1 3% 2% 1% Availability Rate Avg. Gross Rent $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 0 0% Direct Available Area (sf ) Sublet Available Area (sf ) Availability Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rate ($psf ) Avg. Additional Rent ($psf ) Market Inventory Direct Avail. Area Sublet Avail. Area Total Avail. Area Avail. Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rent Avg. Addt'l Rent Avg. Sale Price Current Completions Under Construction Preleasing Ajax 7,295,071 12, , % $5.50 $ Oshawa 13,615, , , % $6.62 $ ,000 Pickering 10,999, ,006 1, , % $6.17 $3.17 $ ,000 0 Whitby 10,212, ,204 33, , % $7.02 $ ,368 49,000 GTA East 48,021, ,403 35, , % $6.33 $3.63 $ , ,000 * Total figures for the GTA East include additional submarkets not listed above (i.e. Brock, Clarington, Scugog and Uxbridge).

5 GTA North Market Monitor The availability rate in the North market decreased 70 bps quarter-over-quarter, reaching 1.7% in second-quarter Sublease listings made up 12% of the total available area, down from 19% in the first quarter. Comprising more than 537,000 sf, the vast majority of the sublet space remains in the Vaughan market. The North market s average asking net rent decreased.15 quarter-over-quarter to $7.97 psf and remains the highest among the GTA s four industrial districts. Noteworthy lease deals during the second quarter included Olympia Tile s renewal of its 844,069-sf lease at 100 Royal Group Cres. in Vaughan, DHL Global Forwarding s new lease for 555,109 sf at the former Sears distribution facility (9501 Highway 50) in Vaughan (acquired by Metrus Properties in 2016), and Sobeys 383,200-sf build-to-suit deal with Anatolia Capital at 100 Gibraltar Rd., also in Vaughan. Notable sales in the North market included Rodenbury Investments purchase of 66 Leek Cres. in Richmond Hill from Solid General Contractors (the user) for $23.8 million, representing $134 psf. Vaughan remained the centre of new development in the North market during the second quarter. Construction commenced on three additional buildings, bringing the total area under construction to more than 1.3 msf, spread across eight projects. Over 550,000 sf of new construction was completed during the quarter, notably Condor Properties 220 Hunter s Valley Rd. (250,000 sf ) in Vaughan, where State Window Corp. is the major tenant. Several buildings were added to the preleasing pipeline during the second quarter, bringing the total preleasing count to just over 1 msf of which 956,113 sf is located in Vaughan. In other news, construction has commenced on the extension of Highway 427 through the Vaughan Enterprise Zone. The 6.6-km expansion will help improve traffic flow through the area, while unlocking land value along its route north of Highway 7 up to Major Mackenzie Dr. and beyond. Construction is expected to be complete in Market Inventory Total Available Area Average Net Asking Rent Construction Pipeline 186 msf 3.1 msf $7.97 psf 1.3 msf / 8 Buildings Availability Trends Occupancy Cost Trends 6 3% $14 5 $12 Total Available Area (msf) % 1% Availability Rate Avg. Gross Rent $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 0 0% Direct Available Area (sf ) Sublet Available Area (sf ) Availability Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rate ($psf ) Avg. Additional Rent ($psf ) Market Inventory Direct Avail. Area Sublet Avail. Area Total Avail. Area Avail. Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rent Avg. Addt'l Rent Avg. Sale Price Current Completions Under Construction Preleasing Aurora 6,180, ,447 24, , % $7.58 $3.32 $ Markham 40,299, ,474 60, , % $7.99 $3.89 $ Newmarket 9,093,424 22, , % $8.17 $ Richmond Hill 14,160, ,697 33, , % $8.60 $4.66 $ ,000 Vaughan 110,161,486 1,479, ,526 1,899, % $7.50 $3.33 $ ,503 1,300, ,113 GTA North 185,526,899 2,568, ,955 3,106, % $7.97 $3.71 $ ,503 1,300,327 1,036,113 * Total figures for the GTA North include additional submarkets not listed above (i.e. East Gwillimbury, Georgina, King and Whitchurch-Stouffville).

6 GTA West Market Monitor The West market experienced a 50-bps drop in availability to 2.7% during the second quarter, returning to the declining availability trend experienced throughout Of significance, The Forzani Group inked a deal for a yet-to-be-constructed 1.3-msf facility at Panattoni Development Company s Hurontario St. in Brampton. JYSK leased 393,000 sf at LaSalle Investment Management s building at 6757 Northwest Dr. in Mississauga, and Sumitomo Electric Industries took occupancy of 341,000 sf at OPTrust s newly constructed building at 307 Orenda Rd. in Brampton. The top investment transaction based on dollar value was Summit Industrial Income REIT acquiring 2486 Surveyor Rd. in Mississauga from Orlando Corp. for $37 million. Average net asking rents decreased by.15 quarter-over-quarter to $6.94 psf in the second quarter. The highest average net asking rent was found in Milton at $7.43 psf. Halton Hills continues to be the most economical GTA West submarket with an average net asking rent of $6.48 psf. Five buildings were completed during the second quarter, ranging from 150,000 sf up to 446,000 sf and all were fully leased: 233 Madill Blvd. in Mississauga (446,000 sf, fully leased by SCI); 6360 Belgrave Rd. in Mississauga (303,000 sf, fully leased to Expeditors Canada); 2395 Logistics Dr. in Mississauga (228,000 sf, a cold-storage facility designed and built for Congebec); 100 Pillsworth Rd. in Caledon (191,000 sf, tenanted by Home Depot of Canada) and 7845 Heritage Rd. in Brampton (150,000 sf ). Crestpoint Real Estate Investments is in the process of redeveloping its existing Magellan Aerospace Limited property at 3160 Derry Rd. E. in Mississauga. Once the existing building is demolished, the plan is to a construct a new 228,000-sf facility (including 40,000 sf of office space) for Magellan Aerospace and redevelop the balance of the site (33 acres). This site will be in close proximity to the Pearson Transit Centre, currently being developed by the Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA), and is within walking distance of the Malton GO station. A further 19 buildings totalling 2.7 msf are under construction, with an additional 23 buildings in the preleasing pipeline, amounting to 8.3 msf of future new supply. Market Inventory Total Available Area Average Net Asking Rent Construction Pipeline 383 msf 10.3 msf $6.94 psf 2.7 msf / 19 Buildings Availability Trends Occupancy Cost Trends 30 5% $12 Total Available Area (msf) % 3% 2% 1% Availability Rate Avg. Gross Rent $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 0 0% Direct Available Area (sf ) Sublet Available Area (sf ) Availability Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rate ($psf ) Avg. Additional Rent ($psf ) Market Inventory Direct Avail. Area Sublet Avail. Area Total Avail. Area Avail. Rate (%) Avg. Net Asking Rent Avg. Addt'l Rent Avg. Sale Price Current Completions Under Construction Preleasing Brampton 96,001,876 1,152,753 80,572 1,233, % $6.69 $3.39 $ , ,078 2,366,975 Burlington 26,858, ,019 5, , % $7.39 $3.46 $ ,481 67,502 Caledon 14,084,188 82, , , % $6.73 $3.04 $ , ,692 3,430,004 Halton Hills 8,050,636 1,233, ,233, % $6.48 $ , ,000 Milton 21,456,455 1,411, ,411, % $7.43 $ ,587 Mississauga 188,127,429 3,275,666 1,080,301 4,355, % $7.00 $3.71 $ ,160 1,503,282 1,030,371 Oakville 28,737, ,186 90, , % $6.84 $3.65 $ , ,311 GTA West 383,316,403 8,533,402 1,779,066 10,312, % $6.94 $3.22 $194 1,317,895 2,734,114 8,346,750

7 Summary of Tenant Options Available Space No. of Bldgs. with Avail. Space More than 250,000 sf 249, ,000 sf 99,999-50,000 sf 49,999-20,000 sf Less than 20,000 sf East York GTA GTA West GTA North GTA East GTA Central Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto Market Total* Ajax Oshawa Pickering Whitby Market Total* Aurora Markham Newmarket Richmond Hill Vaughan Market Total* Brampton Burlington Caledon Halton Hills Milton Mississauga Oakville Market Total Overall Total * Total figures for the GTA Central, GTA East and GTA North include additional submarkets not listed above.

8 Significant Lease Transactions by Market # Address Market Tenant Size Lease Type Hurontario Street Brampton The Forzani Group 1,300,000 sf New Evans Avenue Etobicoke Tomato King 134,150 sf New Royal Group Crescent Vaughan Olympia Tile International Inc. 844,069 sf Renewal 43 Highway 407 & Brock Road Pickering Kubota Canada 565,000 sf New

9 $787M Total industrial investment volume for transactions greater than $1M during the second quarter 2485 Surveyor Road, Mississauga GTA Industrial Investment Market Highlights Industrial sales were on par with the first quarter, with $787 million worth of properties changing hands in secondquarter 2018 for a first-half total of $1.6 billion down 9% year-over-year. The average sale price per square foot across the GTA climbed to a historic high of $179. The sector is experiencing historically low availability (2.1%), strong demand and scarce new supply. Capitalization Rates Average Cap Rate 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4.9% 4.7% Summit Industrial Income REIT (Summit) acquired just over $135 million worth of industrial product, capturing three of the quarter s top five sales. The Region of Peel remained the GTA s most active, with $263 million in sales (33% of overall volume). The largest single-asset sale (by both transaction value and square footage) saw Summit purchase a 187,245-sf facility at 2485 Surveyor Rd. in Mississauga from Orlando Corp. for $37 million ($197 psf ) at a reported 5.4% cap rate. York Region accounted for 28% of volume ($217 million), including a two-building portfolio sold by Epic Realty Partners to Summit for $70 million, while the region s largest singleasset sale was that of 66 Leek Cres. in Richmond Hill by the user to Rodenbury Investments for $23.8 million. The City of Toronto recorded $182 million in sales, including a $30.9-million land exchange agreement for 915 & 945 Lake Shore Blvd. E. in the Port Lands by Canada Post to Toronto Economic Development Corp. Cap rates for single and multi-tenant properties compressed for the first time since third-quarter 2017 to 4.7% (-10 bps) and 4.9% (-20 bps), respectively new historic lows. 4% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Single Tenant Industrial Multi Tenant Industrial Investment Volume and Sale Price (Transactions over $1M) Investment Volume ($ millions) $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Q2'08 Q2'09 Q2'10 Q2'11 Q2'12 Q2'13 Q2'14 Q2'15 Q2'16 Q2'17 Q2'18 Significant Sale Transactions Property Investment Volume ($ Millions) Average Sale Price ($psf ) Investment volume : all market deals $1M and up, excluding between partners and non-arms deals. Average Sales Price: all market deals only, includes deals with cap. rates. - 10,000 square feet and up, $1M and up. Total Price Price psf Purchaser Vendor Epic Realty Summit REIT Portfolio $70,000,000 $218 Summit Industrial Income REIT Epic Realty Partners Inc Surveyor Rd. $37,000,000 $197 Summit Industrial Income REIT Orlando Corporation 915 & 945 Lake Shore Blvd. E. $30,892,912 $456 Toronto Economic Development Corp. Canada Post 4455 North Service Rd. $28,110,000 $114 Summit Industrial Income REIT Voortman Bakery Steeles Ave. E. $24,891,000 $607 Pride Truck Sales Ltd. $210 $180 $150 $120 $90 $60 $30 North American Development Group Average Sale Price

10 For more information, contact: Bill Argeropoulos Principal & Practice Leader, Research (Canada) Warren D'Souza Research Manager, Toronto Suburban Markets Avison Young Commercial Real Estate (Ontario) Inc., Brokerage. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young. Acknowledgment: Data for graphs, charts and tables used in this report are sourced from Avison Young, Altus InSite and Realnet. Some of the data in this report has been gathered from third party sources and has not been independently verified by Avison Young. Avison Young makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. Anthony Hong Research Analyst City Centre Drive East Tower, Suite 301 Mississauga, ON L5B 1M Charles Torzsok Research Analyst Commerce Valley Drive West Suite 501, Mailbox #7 Markham, ON L3T 7V