REAL ESTATE MARKET OF TASHKENT CITY: SEPTEMBER, 2011 RESULTS. Summary of AVEX residential real estate indices

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1 Analytical Center «Avesta Research» 36 Navoi str., Tashkent city, Uzbekistan Tel./Fax: Internet: INDUSTRY REVIEW REAL ESTATE October 11, 2011 REAL ESTATE MARKET OF TASHKENT CITY: SEPTEMBER, 2011 RESULTS Residential real estate price index AVEX-Res, a proxy of actual selling price, increased by 1.9% up to 444 USD per at the end of September; average offered price (AOP) was equal to 534 USD per Prices mostly rose for apartments located more than 10 km away from the center of the city. AOP by number of rooms rose mostly in case of single and 5-room apartments. Average rental rate of apartments in Tashkent city decreased by 17.7% month-on-month down to 4.6 USD per per month. Average offer price of storage and trade premises increased. Average offered price of office premises was equal to 595 USD per, 18.8% below the level in the previous month. Average offer rental rate of office premises throughout the city was equal to 8.9 USD per sq. m. per month in September. AOP of a private house in Tashkent city was equal to USD. Summary of AVEX residential real estate indices Name of the index AVEX - Res AVEX - ResRent AVEX - Office AVEX - OfficeRent AVEX residential real estate indices in September, 2011 Type Unit of Value of the Value of the Change, measurement index, index, (%) August September Price index of USD per ,9 residential real estate Rental price index of residential real estate Price index of office premises Rental price index of office premises USD per per month 5,5 4,6-17,7 USD per ,8 USD per per month 7,8 8,9 14,7 1

2 SECONDARY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE Analysts of AC Avesta Research reviewed secondary residential real estate in September. In September, AVEX-Res index, a proxy of average offered price adjusted for a discount, was equal to 444 USD per, 9 points or 1.9% more than in the previous month. AVEX-Res index dynamics Diagram #1 The leader by the number of was Mirzo-Ulugbek district (27.2%). It is followed by Khamza (12.0%) and Chilanzar (12.0%) districts. Distribution of reviewed by district Diagram #2 AOP in September increased by 10 USD per compared to the previous month, up to 534 USD per The most number of reviewed were in the price range of USD per This price range plays a dominant role both in the average offer price and AVEX-Res index of Tashkent. Diagram #3 2

3 Price distribution of in the secondary market of Tashkent city Residential real estate with AOP higher than USD was mainly observed in Mirzo- Ulugbek, Mirabad and Yakkasaray districts. Above city average prices were observed in Mirabad (657 USD per ) and Yakkasaray (695) districts. The lowest real estate prices were registered in Sergeli (384 USD per ) district. Table #1 Offer price of residential real estate by district (USD per ) Average price, USD per Min. price, USD per Max. price, USD per Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sabir-Rakhimov Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent AOP increased in most of the districts with the exception of Mirzo-Ulugbek, Sergeli and Shaykhontakhur districts, where AOP declined insignificantly. The most significant AOP change in September was observed in Sabir-Rakhimov district (+12%). Below is the dynamics of average offer prices by districts of Tashkent. AOP dynamics in Bektemir, Sabir-Rakhimov, Sergeli, Uchtepa, Diagram #4 3

4 Khamza and Shaykhontakhur districts AOP dynamics in Mirzo-Ulugbek, Chilanzar, Mirbad, Yunus-abad and Yakkasaray districts Diagram #5 Average area of an apartment offered for sale 67 The area of the largest apartment on sale 240 was observed in Khamza district. The most average area per district was observed in Mirabad and Shaykhontakhur districts. These figures reflect construction design in these districts and practically remain unchanged from month to month. Area of apartments offered for sale in September, 2011 () Table #2 4

5 Average area, Min. area, Max. area, Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sabir-Rakhimov Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent AOP of apartments increased slightly in all Categories. AOP of residential real estate by territorial category of Tashkent city AOP in AOP in August, Category September, USD Change, % USD per per А ,4% В ,4% С ,9% Table #3 The most price decrease by district, with sufficient number of for analysis, was observed in Category A of Khamza district 6.0%. The most price increase was observed in Category C of Mirabad district 22.0%. Changes in Category C of Bektemir and Shaykhontakhur districts and Category A of Shaykhontakhur district are statistically insignificant, due to limited number of observations. The most expensive apartments were registered in Category A (up to 5 km away from the center of the city) of Mirzo-Ulugbek, Shaykhontakhur, Mirabad and Yakkasaray districts. Table #4 Changes in AOP of residential real estate by category and districts (USD per ) Category August September Change, % Bektemir С 270 Mirabad А % Mirabad В % Mirabad С % Mirzo-Ulugbek А % Mirzo-Ulugbek В % Mirzo-Ulugbek С % Sabir-Rakhimov В % Sabir-Rakhimov С % Sergeli С % Uchtepa С % Khamza А % Khamza В % Khamza С % Chilanzar В % 5

6 Chilanzar С % Shaykhontakhur А % Shaykhontakhur В % Shaykhontakhur С % Yunus-Abad А % Yunus-Abad В % Yunus-Abad С % Yakkasaray А % Yakkasaray В % Yakkasaray С % Dynamics of AOP of residential real estate from September, 2010 to September, 2011 Diagrams #6-7 AOP in September, 2011 is 3.3% below its level observed in September, The lowest price over the past 12 months was recorded in May, USD per The highest price over the past 12 months was recorded in October, USD per Residential real estate by construction material In September, AOP of apartments in panel houses was equal to 474 USD per and in brick houses 615 USD per Apartment prices by construction material (USD per ) Table #5 Material Average price, USD per Min. price, USD per Max. price, USD per Brick Panel AOP of apartments in panel houses increased by 2.9%, and in brick houses by 2.3%. Changes in AOP of apartments by construction material (USD per ) Material August September Change, % Brick ,9% Panel ,3% Table #6 The below table depicts prices of apartments by construction material and location category. Diagram #8 6

7 Prices based on category of apartments and construction material (USD per ) In September, AOP of apartments in brick houses increased under all Categories. The most increase in AOP of apartments was observed in Category C. Changes in AOP of apartments in BRICK houses based on category (USD per ) Category August September Change, % A ,5% В ,9% С ,0% Table #7 AOP of apartments in panel houses decreased under all Categories, except for Category C. Changes in AOP of apartments in PANEL houses based on category (USD per ) Category August September Change, % A ,2% В ,7% С ,5% Table #8 As depicted in the below diagram, the most expensive in September were observed for apartments in brick houses located in Mirabad and Yakkasaray districts. AOP based on construction material and district (USD per ) Diagram #9 7

8 The below table displays prices by district based on construction material. AOP based on construction material and district (USD per ) Brick Panel Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sabir-Rakhimov Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Table #9 The current AOP of apartments in brick houses is 3.5% below the level observed in September, 2010, and in panel houses 2.2%. During the latest 12 months, the lowest AOP in brick houses was observed in May, 2011 (555 USD per ) and in panel houses in May (428 USD per ); the highest AOP in brick houses was observed in October, 2010 (645 USD per sq. m.) and in panel houses in October, 2010 (494 USD per ). Dynamics of AOP of apartments in brick and panel houses Diagram #

9 from September, 2010 to September, 2011 Residential real estate by number of rooms The bulk of analyzed in September, as in the previous months, were represented by doubleroom and 3-room apartment. AOP of doubleroom apartments increased by 5.0%, and of 3- room apartments decreased by 0.5%. AOP of these apartments was equal to 503 USD per and 561 USD per, respectively. rooms Table #10 AOP of apartments in Tashkent city by number of rooms (USD per ) Average price, Min. price, USD Max. price, USD USD per per per The next table shows prices by category based on the distance from the center of the city and number of rooms. As it can be seen from the table, the most expensive apartments are those with 3-rooms, located within 5 km from the center of the city. The number of with 6- and more rooms is very few, resulting in statistically insignificant AOP comparison for such apartments. AOP of apartments by category and number of rooms (USD per ) rooms A B C Table #11 In September, AOP of apartments by number of rooms increased under all categories, except for 3- and 4-room apartments. 9

10 Changes in AOP of apartments by the number of rooms (USD per ) rooms August September Change, % ,7% ,0% ,5% ,5% ,0% Table #12 Yakkasaray (6.8 USD per per month) and Mirabad (6.5 USD) districts were the most expensive ones to rent an apartment in September. 10

11 APARTMENT RENTALS Average rental rate throughout the city has decreased by 17.7% and went down to 4.6 USD per per month. Average size of apartments offered for rent was 70 Table #13 Main indicators of rental rates of apartments by district (USD per per month) Average rental rate, Min. rental rate, Max. rental rate, USD per per USD per per USD per per month month month Mirabad 26 5, Mirzo-Ulugbek 43 5, Sabir-Rakhimov 5 2,0 1 3 Uchtepa 4 3,0 3 3 Khamza 21 3,0 2 6 Chilanzar 15 4,0 2 7 Shaykhontakhur 6 4,0 1 7 Yunus-abad 16 4,1 1 8 Yakkasaray 16 5, Tashkent 152 4, Table #14 Size of apartments offered for rent based on district () Average size, Min. size, Max. size, Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sabir-Rakhimov Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Average rental rates increased almost in all districts, except for Mirzo-Ulugbek and Chilanzar districts. The most change in rental price dynamics was observed in Uchtepa district (-35%). Changes in average rental rates of apartments by district (USD per per month) Table #15 11

12 August September Change, % Mirabad 6,5 5,3-18% Mirzo-Ulugbek 5,4 5,5 2% Sabir-Rakhimov 2,4 2,0-16% Uchtepa 4,6 3,0-35% Khamza 4,3 3,0-30% Chilanzar 3,8 4,0 6% Shaykhontakhur 4,4 4,0-9% Yunus-abad 5,5 4,1-26% Yakkasaray 6,8 5,1-24% Tashkent 5,5 4,6-18% Apartment rental rates have decreased under all Categories. Changes in average rental rates of apartments by category of location (USD per per month) Category August September Change, % Table #16 А 6,9 5,3-23,5% В 5,3 5,1-2,8% С 3,8 2,6-32,4% 4-room apartments were the most expensive ones to rent. The majority of involved double-room apartments. rooms Table #17 Apartment rental rates by number of rooms (USD per per month) Average rental rate, Min. rental rate, Max. rental rate, USD per per USD per per USD per per month month month , , , , Аренда недвижимости в зависимости от материала Average offer rental rates of apartments in brick houses were equal to 5.5 USD per, and in panel houses 3.4 USD per Table #18 Average offer rental rates based on construction material and number of rooms (USD per ) rooms Brick Panel 1 5,1 3,2 2 5,1 3,6 3 4,3 3,4 4 11,4 2,2 Tashkent 5,5 3,4 In September, average rental rate in brick houses decreased by 9% compared to the previous month, in panel houses 30%. 12

13 Dynamics of average rental rate of apartments in Tashkent city over the last 12 month are presented in the below diagrams. Changes in rental prices of apartments in Tashkent city Diagrams #

14 MARKET OF LAND LOTS In September, average price per 100 of land without any construction or with houses in poor state was equal to USD per 100 sq. m, down by 11.1% compared to the previous month. Table #19 Key indicators of land lot prices by district (USD per 100 ) Average price Min. price per Max. price per per 100 of 100 of 100 of land, USD land, USD land, USD Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Average size of land lots offered for sale was 2 700, the smallest one 100, and the largest one The bulk of the were registered in Mirzo-Ulugbek district. Size of land lots by district (in 100 ) Average size, Min. size, Max. size, Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Table #20 Prices highly vary from land lot to another, and one of the most affecting factors is the purpose of use. Also, as the number of lots on sale is limited, average price can change significantly from month to month. AOP of land lots in September, 2011 is 30% less than in August,

15 Diagrams #14-15 Offer prices of land lots from September, 2010 till September, 2011 (USD per 100 ) 15

16 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Average offer prices of storage and trade premises increased over the past month. AOP of storage and production premises went up by 65.9% to 345 USD per AOP of trade premises rose by 24.0% and was equal to 890 USD per AOP of office premises decreased by 18.8% and was equal to 595 USD per Table #21 Offer prices of commercial real estate in Tashkent city in September, 2011 (USD per ) Type of commercial real estate Average price, USD per Min. price, USD per Max. price, USD per Storage and production premises Office premises Trade premises Changes in average prices of commercial real estate in August, 2010 September, 2011 (USD per ) Type of commercial real estate August September Change, % Storage and production premises ,4% Office premises ,8% Trade premises ,0% Table #22 Area indicators of commercial real estate offered for sale are presented in the following table. Table #23 Size indicators of commercial real estate in Tashkent city () Type of commercial real estate Average size, Min. size, Max. size, Storage and production premises Office premises Trade premises Average price dynamics of commercial real estate is provided in the below diagram. 16

17 12-month dynamics of average prices of commercial real estate (USD per ) Diagram #16 OFFICE PREMISES Average offer price of office premises throughout Tashkent city was equal to 595 USD per sq. m. Most of the were registered in Chilanzar district, which explains the decline in AOP dynamics. The most expensive premises are offered in Sabir-Rakhimov and Yunus-abad districts. Offer prices of office premises (USD per ) Average price, Min. price, USD USD per per Max. price, USD per Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sabir-Rakhimov Sergeli Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Table #24 Average size of office premises offered for sale in the current month was 157 The smallest area was equal to 25, the largest

18 Table #25 Size indicators of office premises in September, 2011 () Район Количество Средняя Минимальная Максимальная предложений площадь, кв.м. площадь, кв.м. площадь, кв.м. Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Uchtepa Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Diagrams #17-18 Monthly changes in average prices of office premises (USD per ) RENTAL OF OFFICE PREMISES Average offer rental rate of office premises throughout the city in September increased by 14.7% down to 8.9 USD per per month. Table #26 Key price indicators of office premises rentals (USD per per month) Average rental Max. rental rate, Min. rental rate, rate, USD per sq. USD per USD per m. per month per month per month Mirabad 11 10,8 4,2 18,0 Mirzo-Ulugbek 5 8,2 4,0 16,0 Uchtepa 1 8,3 8,3 8,3 Chilanzar 4 10,0 5,9 14,0 Shaykhontakhur 2 7,0 5,3 8,6 Yunus-abad 12 7,5 4,3 11,7 Yakkasaray 6 9,1 1,0 14,0 Tashkent 41 8,9 1,0 18,0 Most of the office premises offered for rent were located in Mirabad and Yunus-abad districts. Average size of office premises offered for rent in September was equal to

19 Key size indicators of office premises rentals () Average size, Min. size, Max. size, Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Uchtepa Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Table #27 Below is price dynamics in the recent year. Since September, 2010 up to the current month, average rental rate of office premises increased by 9.1%. Diagrams #19-20 Monthly changes in average rental rates of office premises (USD per ) 19

20 MARKET OF PRIVATE HOUSES In September, average price of a private house in Tashkent city was equal to USD per, 4.1% less than in the previous month. On average, the most expensive were registered in Yunus-abad district. The bulk of were registered in Mirzo-Ulugbek district. Table #28 Main price indicators of private houses by district (USD) Average price, Min. price, USD Max. price, USD USD per per per Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunusabad Yakkasaray Tashkent The next table provides short descriptive data of private houses sold in Tashkent city by district. Description of private houses in Tashkent city by district Table #29 Average price, USD per Average number of rooms Average size of a land lot, 100 Bektemir Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Sergeli Uchtepa Khamza Chilanzar Shaykhontakhur Yunusabad Yakkasaray Tashkent

21 PRIVATE HOUSE RENTALS In September, average rental rate per private house in Tashkent city was equal to USD per month, 10.9% more than in the previous month. The bulk of were registered in Mirzo- Ulugbek district. Table #30 General indicators of rental prices of private houses by district (USD per month) Average rental Min. rental rate, Max. rental rate, rate, USD per USD per month USD per month month Mirabad Mirzo-Ulugbek Segeli Khamza Shaykhontakhur Yunus-abad Yakkasaray Tashkent Average size of a private house offered for rent 550, on average they have 6.0 rooms. rooms and 100 in a private house, offered for rent Table #31 Average number of rooms Average size of the land lot Mirabad 8 3,8 3,8 Mirzo-Ulugbek 25 6,6 6,5 Segeli 2 4,0 8,0 Khamza 1 5,0 3,0 Shaykhontakhur 1 3,0 6,0 Yunus-abad 5 6,7 4,2 Yakkasaray 12 6,0 4,8 Tashkent 54 6,0 5,5 21

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