Rent Index 2018 QUARTER 3

Transcription

1 Rent Index 2018 QUARTER 3

2 About Us What is the Residential Tenancies Board? The Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) is a public body set up to support and develop a well functioning rental housing sector. Our remit covers both the private rental sector and not-for-profit housing providers also referred to as Approved Housing Bodies. Our role is to regulate the rental sector; provide high quality information to tenants and landlords; maintain a national register of tenancies; resolve disputes between landlords and tenants; maintain a national register of tenancies; conduct research and provide information to inform policy. What we do Information, research & education We provide high-quality information to tenants and landlords as well as to the general public to help them understand their rights and responsibilities. We also provide accurate and authoritative data on the rental sector, such as the RTB Quarterly Rent Index, which allows us to monitor trends in the rental sector, and also allows individuals to compare rents in particular locations. Registrations All private residential landlords and Approved Housing Bodies are obliged to register their tenancies. A public register of tenancies is available on our website. The registration of tenancies enables us to collect important data on the sector, and is also a key part of regulating and supporting the sector and ensuring landlords and tenants are aware of their rights and responsibilities. Dispute resolution Since 2004, we have replaced the courts in dealing with the majority of disputes between landlords and tenants through our Dispute Resolution Service. This service offers a choice of resolution types to parties mediation or adjudication. 2

3 Table of Contents Introduction 2 Summary of results for Quarter Comparison across Regions and Cities 8 Comparing Dublin and outside Dublin 9 A closer look at our cities 18 Rental Developments across Counties 19 Local Electoral Area Rent Developments 24 New and Renewal Tenancies 28 Quarterly Market Insights 32 Appendix 1: Technical Appendix 41 Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

4 Introduction This report is produced by the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and provides rental indicators (the Rent Index) generated to track price developments in the Irish market. The analysis presents rental indices on a quarterly basis covering the period Q to Q In addition to national figures, the Index in this report provides information on rents for a number of sub-national geographic breakdowns. The aim of these additional data is to ensure trends in local rental markets can be identified. This report provides a breakdown of standardised average rents by county as well as presenting a number of higher level aggregation indices which present rents for major cities (Dublin, Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford). Detailed standardised average rents are also presented for each local electoral area (LEA) In Q2 2018, the report included two new sections, the New and Renewal Tenancies and the Market insights sections. These are also included in this current issue. The report is structured as follows; in the next section, the overall results from Q are examined. The overall national Index is presented first and then disaggregated into the national picture by house and apartment. Second, high-level geographic estimates for selected regions and cities are presented. Estimates on a county-bycounty basis are then provided as well as the results for each LEA, followed by the two new sections on new and renewed tenancies, and on market insights. In the appendices, more detail is provided regarding the calculation of the Index. The Index is the most accurate and authoritative rent report of its kind on the private rental sector in Ireland. Relative to other market monitoring reports produced for the Irish rental sector, the RTB/ESRI Rent Index has the considerable benefit of being based on regulatory data covering all new tenancy agreements registered with the RTB nationally. Using such regulatory data is a considerable strength as the data coverage is broader than the samples used by any private sector reports. 2

5 Summary of results for Quarter Overall national trends The third quarter of 2018 saw continued strong domestic economic activity in Ireland, in particular in the labour market where rising wages and increased inward migration have become a feature. The buoyancy of domestic activity is spilling over to the housing market and continuing to put pressure on the rental sector. In Q3 2018, standardised average rents continued to trend upwards. Nationally, rents grew at 7.5 per cent annually in Q3 2018, a slight deceleration from 7.8 per cent in Q On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the rental price inflation was 1.9 per cent in Q3 2018, down from 3.6 per cent in Q Table 1 presents the standardised Index, average rent and growth rates for the period Q to Q The Index stood at 114 for Q3 2018, with the standardised average rent amounting to 1,122 per month. On an annualised basis, this represents an increase in the Index from 106 in Q and the standardised average rent from 1,044 in Q3 2017; this represents an increase of 78 euro relative to one year previous. Trends in houses versus apartments Table 2 provides a further disaggregation of the national standardised rents as well as the growth rates in the rental levels for both houses and apartments. 1 Presenting separate standardised average rents for houses and apartments provides granular insight into the relative trends by dwelling type. It also ensures better intelligence on where price pressures are developing across segments of the market. Furthermore, the composition of households searching for accommodation in the rental market may provide a different demand profile relative to the owner-occupied sector; with rental markets concentrated in urban centres, it is likely more apartments are demanded than in the owner-occupied sector. 1 The analysis for house and apartment is limited to only records which indicate that the agreement is for either of these housing types. If housing type is other, these data are included in the national series but not in the overall series. The standardised average for the overall national level is below both the housing and apartment levels due to the fact that the growth rates for housing and apartments are faster than for other dwellings (as classified) which leads these data to depart from the base differentials set in Q Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

6 As of Q3 2018, the standardised average national rent for houses was 1,130 per month, up from 1,060 one year earlier. The corresponding figures for apartments was 1,222 for Q3 2018, up from 1,127 per month in Q In terms of rental price inflation, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the growth rate for houses in Q increased at a rate of 2.8 per cent which is below the figure for Q but only marginally lower than the quarter-on-quarter growth rate for Q The quarteron-quarter growth rate for apartments decreased by 2.9 percentage point in Q when compared to Q to stand at 1 per cent. On a year-on-year basis, rents for houses increased by 6.6 per cent in Q3 2018, marginally lower than the growth rate in Q Apartment rents increased by 8.4 per cent in Q on a year-on-year basis which represents a deceleration on an annualised basis by 0.2 percentage points relative to Q In general, while apartments are growing more rapidly than house prices, there is some evidence that apartment price growth may be moderating as the inflation rate has reversed three quarters of increased year-on-year growth. Rental price increases for houses, on a year-on-year basis, have been reasonably steady at around 6-7 per cent since early The Index for house rents stood at 111 in Q3 2018, increasing its level when compared to the previous quarter. The Index for apartment rents stood at 125 in Q3 2018, up two index points from the previous quarter. The higher standardised average rent for apartments reflects the higher share of this housing type in the major urban centres. As these are the areas with generally stronger demand from a rental perspective, this naturally leads to a higher apartment price relative to houses. To monitor and evaluate the developments in rental prices it is important to assess the relative trends over time. Figure 1 tracks the development of the Index from Q to Q as well as splitting the national index by house and apartment. The recent strong rental trends began emerging in late 2012 as the economy began to recover with a marked acceleration in the pace of growth, beginning in early It is noteworthy that, while the previous quarter Q saw an acceleration of the trend overall and also for both houses and apartments, the trend in Q experienced a slight deceleration, particularly for the case of apartments. It must be noted rents are seasonal in nature so quarterly growth rates can display considerable volatility. The number of tenancies registered with the RTB in Q was 18,716, and in Q the number was 25,448. 4

7 New versus renewal tenancies To attempt to provide insight into the standardised average rent for tenants in existing tenancies, we developed an indicator which separates further part IV tenancy renewals (leases which have been renewed after 4/6 years) from other new registrations and calculated separate standardised averages for these two series. We find that one-infive registered tenancies in Q was a renewal and this has increased from one-in-ten two years ago. The year on-year change of standardised average rents increased faster for new tenancies when compared with renewed tenancies. The standardised average rent for new tenancies was 1,208 per month as compared to 956 for further part 4 renewals. The year-on-year growth for new tenancies was 8.0 per cent as compared to 5.4 per cent for further part IV renewals. Market insights The Market Insights section profiles the composition of the market in terms of the type of properties rented, where are people renting, the length of their tenancies and other factors. For Q3 2018, a number of important highlights come through. In total nearly two-in-five new tenancies registered were in Dublin highlighting the concentration of the rental market in the capital. The acute price pressures in Dublin are clearly evidence with fewer than 15 per cent of tenancies agreed at less than 1,000 per month as compared to 70 per cent elsewhere. The Dublin market is also dominated by apartment or flats (three in every four tenancies) as compared to less than one-in-two elsewhere. There is also a clear trend towards longer term tenancies with 25 per cent of agreements now longer than 12 months. This compares to approximately 15 per cent in Figure 1 RTB Rent Index National Q4 2007= Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 National Index National Houses Index National Apts Index Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

8 Table 1 National Rent Index Period Index Standardised Average Rent ( ) Year-on-Year % Change Quarter-on-Quarter % Change Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

9 Table 2 National Rent Index by House and Apartment Period Index (Q = 100) Standardised Average Period Index (Q3 2007=100) Standardised Average Rent ( ) Quarter-on-Quarter Change Year-on-Year Change Houses Apartments Houses Apartments Houses Apartments Houses Apartments Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

10 Comparison across Regions and Cities When finding a place to live, households often prefer to locate close to family, services, jobs or amenities. The level of demand and supply pressures vary greatly across areas depending on their perceived attractiveness, which is a function of the range of amenities (and employment opportunities) they offer. This means it is prudent to analyse housing market dynamics at as disaggregated a geographic basis as is practicable. To provide an understanding of how rental prices vary across regions in Ireland, this section presents a selected number of sub-national indices and provides trends in rents for these areas. The areas are selected based on the previous RTB/ESRI Index geographic breakdowns and some new additional material that provides more granular insights for cities and the Greater Dublin Area (GDA). Please note that even where geographic splits correspond to previous report iterations, as the estimation methodology changed for this report, other than the starting base values, the figures will differ and should not be compared to previous versions. Time series are presented within this report to provide a historical comparison. Comparing Dublin and outside Dublin The Dublin rental market is the largest in the country and how it develops over time has a considerable effect on developments nationally. In Q3 2018, Dublin accounted for nearly 2 in every 5 tenancies that were registered with the RTB (for more detail see the Market Insights section). As Dublin also accounts for a large share of economic activity and employment, rent pressures can be greatest in this area with many people looking to live and work in close proximity. These pressures spill over into the Dublin commuter counties and many more households live in the counties surrounding Dublin. To provide accurate monitoring of these sub-markets, the data are grouped into three regions: Dublin (including the four local authority areas), the Greater Dublin Area (excluding Dublin) and the rest of the country (Outside the Greater Dublin Area). The results are presented in Tables

11 As of Q3 2018, the standardised average rent for Dublin stood at 1,620, up from 1,479 one year earlier. This represents an increase of 141 euro on the standardised average monthly rent over a 12 month period or nearly 12 euro per month increase. The Dublin Rent Index stood at 128 in Q up from 126 in the previous quarter. This index level is 23 points higher than the pre-crisis peak of 105 in Q The quarter-on-quarter growth rate in Dublin was 1.6 per cent in Q This represents a decrease from the 4.4 rate in Q On a year-on-year basis, Dublin rents were up 9.5 per cent in Q3 2018, this represents an increase in the growth rate from 8.9 per cent year-on-year growth in Q and also represents a significant annualised acceleration relative to Q The very buoyant economic performance of the Dublin economy, which is the driver of national trends, as well as the increase in demographic pressures in the capital with inward migration picking up is likely to be adding to rental price pressures in this area. It is also likely that, if new supply comes online, that this would likely be in the major urban centres. This may provide upward pressure on the growth rates if new market supply comes online in higher price points in the capital. To provide a comparison to the Dublin area, results are presented for the Greater Dublin Area excluding Dublin (GDA). 2 While the level of rents in the GDA (excluding Dublin) are not as high as in Dublin, as of Q3 2018, the standardised average rent for the GDA (excluding Dublin) stood at 1,149 up from 1,079 year-on-year. The GDA (excluding Dublin) Rent Index stood at 113 in Q3 2018, up three points from the previous quarter. The quarteron-quarter growth rate in the GDA (excluding Dublin) was 2.1 per cent in Q3 2018, an acceleration from 1.8 per cent in Q On a year-on-year basis, GDA (excluding Dublin) rents were up 6.5 per cent; this represents an increase from 5.4 per cent year-on-year growth in the second quarter of To capture rental pressures in the rest of the country, a Rent Index is presented for the rest of the counties outside the GDA. The standardised average rent for outside the GDA stood at 859 up from 806 year-on-year. The Index for the rest of the country stood at 108 in Q3 2018, representing an increase when compared to Q The quarter-onquarter growth rate for the rest of the country was 4.3 in Q On a yearon-year basis, rents outside the GDA were up 6.5 per cent. 2 The GDA contains counties Meath, Kildare, Wicklow. The standardised average of these counties presented in the counties table does not equal the GDA figure as this is estimated from a separate regression for the high level regions. Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

12 As seen at a national level, different rental trends can emerge between houses and apartments across Ireland. To provide a more disaggregated assessment of the trends in rents on houses and apartments, we provide indices, standardised average rents, annualised growth rates and quarterly growth rates for the Dublin region, GDA (excluding Dublin) and outside the GDA for both houses and apartments separately in Tables The trends in the indices are presented in Figures 3-4 and the annualised growth rates in Figures 6-7. Focusing on rents for houses, for Q3 2018, the standardised average rent for a house stood at 1,641 in Dublin, 1,198 in the GDA (excluding Dublin) and 869 outside the GDA. On a quarteron-quarter basis, the Dublin rents are 1.3 per cent higher in Q relative to Q2 2018, with the respective figures for the GDA (excluding Dublin) and outside the GDA standing at 2.5 per cent and 6 per cent respectively. On an annualised basis, the year-on-year growth rate for house rents in Q was 6.5 per cent in Dublin, 5.3 per cent in the GDA (excluding Dublin), and 7.1 per cent outside the GDA. Year-on-year growth rates decreased in Dublin and the GDA (excluding Dublin) relative to the previous quarter while yearly growth rates of houses increased outside the GDA. The corresponding standardised average monthly rental prices for apartments stood at 1,653, 1,079 and 856 respectively for Dublin, the GDA (excluding Dublin) and outside the GDA. The quarterly growth rate for Dublin apartments was 1.7 per cent in Q3 2018, and the corresponding figures for the GDA (excluding Dublin) and outside the GDA were 1.8 and 1.6 per cent respectively. The year-on-year changes in apartment rents to Q were 11.7 per cent for Dublin, 8 per cent for the GDA excluding Dublin, and 5.6 per cent outside the GDA. In general, the trends point towards a continued acceleration in the Dublin market, driven by a marked increase in rental prices for apartments. Outside Dublin, apartment price rises in the GDA (excluding Dublin) also accelerated. These trends may reflect the ongoing supply bottleneck in Dublin and the surrounding commuter counties for apartment accommodation to cater for a growing labour force. 3 Please note again the analysis for house and apartment is limited to only records which indicate that the agreement is for either of these housing types. If housing type is other, these data are included in the national series but not in the overall series. This may lead to standardised averages that are lower for the overall than each of the two house and apartment splits. 10

13 Please note that the relative differences between the overall level and the housing type splits in standardised rents across geographic areas reflects the number of agreements of the specific housing type in each region. This can therefore lead to different relative averages across housing and apartments in regions that do not accord to the national data. For example, we observe that the average standardised rent for houses was lower than for apartments at a national level, but this relationship did not hold in any of the regional breakdowns. These differences are driven by the representation (e.g. weight) of each region in the housing vs apartment market and the different rent level in each of the regions/markets. In Figures 2-7, GDA* relates to GDA excluding Dublin. Rents grew nationally at 7.5% annually in Q Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

14 Figure 2 RTB Rent Index Dublin, GDA (excl. Dublin) and Outside GDA Q3 2007= Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 GDA* Index Dublin Co. Index Outside GDA Index Figure 3 RTB House Rent Index Dublin, GDA (excl. Dublin) and Outside GDA Q3 2007= Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 GDA* Houses Index Dublin Co. Houses Index Outside GDA Houses Index Figure 4 RTB Apartment Rent Index Dublin, GDA (excl. Dublin) and Outside GDA Q3 2007=100 Figure 4: RTB Apartment Rent Index Dublin, GDA (excl. Dublin) and Outside GDA Q3 2007= Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 GDA* Apts Index Dublin Co. Apts Index Outside GDA Apts Index 12

15 Figure 5 Annual Growth in RTB Index Rent Dublin, GDA (excl. Dublin) and Outside GDA Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 GDA* Y-on-Y Change Dublin Co. Y-on-Y Change Outside GDA Y-on-Y Change Figure 6 Annual Growth in House RTB Index Rent Dublin, GDA (excl. Dublin) and Outside GDA Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 GDA* Houses Y-on-Y Change Dublin Co. Houses Y-on-Y Change Outside GDA Figure 7 Annual Growth in Apartment RTB Index Rent Dublin, GDA (excl. Dublin) and Outside GDA Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 GDA* Apts Y-on-Y Change Dublin Co. Apts Y-on-Y Change Outside GDA Apts Y-on-Y Change Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

16 Table 3 Regional Rent Indices - Q =100 Dublin GDA (excl Dublin) Outside GDA Dublin Houses GDA(excl Dublin) Houses Outside GDA Houses Dublin Apt GDA (excl Dublin) Apt Outside GDA Apt Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: GDA stands for Greater Dublin Area 14

17 Table 4 Regional Standardised Average Rents (Q is Actual Average) Dublin GDA (excl Dublin) Outside GDA Dublin Houses GDA(excl Dublin) Houses Outside GDA Houses Dublin Apt GDA (excl Dublin) Apt Outside GDA Apt Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: GDA stands for Greater Dublin Area Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

18 Table 5 Regional Quarter on Quarter % Change Dublin GDA (excl Dublin) Outside GDA Dublin Houses GDA(excl Dublin) Houses Outside GDA Houses Dublin Apt GDA (excl Dublin) Apt Outside GDA Apt Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: GDA stands for Greater Dublin Area 16

19 Table 6 Regional Annual % Change Dublin GDA (excl Dublin) Outside GDA Dublin Houses GDA(excl Dublin) Houses Outside GDA Houses Dublin Apt GDA (excl Dublin) Apt Outside GDA Apt Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: GDA stands for Greater Dublin Area Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

20 A closer look at our cities Many Irish renters live in urban centres and prefer to live close to jobs and amenities. To provide more insight into rental developments across cities in Ireland, we present standardised average rents for each of the cities. The data are presented in Table 7. Comparing across the different cities presented, rents are highest in Dublin City 4 and stood at 1,583 as of Q It is unsurprising that Dublin City rents are highest given the concentration of employment and population in the capital city. This compares to standardised average rents for Dublin as a whole of 1,620. The higher rents outside the city boundary may reflect the mix of property types in the two sub markets as well as the exclusion of the high price rental areas in south county Dublin. On an annualised basis, rents in Galway City grew at the slowest rate of the 5 cities at 1.3 per cent year-on-year in Q Cork City standardised average rents stood at 1,172 for Q3 2018, rents in Limerick City were 928 and rents in Waterford City were 638. On an annualised basis, rents in Limerick City have been growing most rapidly at 11.8 per cent in Q Dublin City rents have accelerated by 11 per cent on an annualised basis in Q Rents in Waterford City grew 10 per cent year-on-year in Q On an annualised basis, rents in Galway City grew at the slowest rate of the 5 cities at 1.3 per cent year-on-year in Q In the present quarter, it is noteworthy that three of the five cities experiences double digit year-on-year rental price growth. Table 7 RTB Rent Index Irish Cities Index Q Standardised Average Rent Q Standardised Average Rent Q Q-o-Q Change (%) Standardised Average Rent Q Y-on-Y Change (%) Cork City Dublin City Galway City Limerick City Waterford City Dublin City refers to the local electoral areas that make up the administrative city boundary. 18

21 Rental Developments across Counties To provide a much more granular disaggregation of rental data across Ireland, we present standardised average rents, indices and per cent changes for each county. These are presented in Table 8 and are also graphically displayed in the two heat maps, which present the level of rents in Q (Figure 8) and the year-on-year growth rate (Figure 9). These maps provide a graphical representation of where rental pressures are greatest and how prices are distributed across the country. In line with the regional figures presented above, rents are highest in Dublin, the surrounding counties and larger urban counties such as Cork, Galway and Limerick. With a majority of the renters concentrated in the large population centres near jobs, education and amenities, price pressures are greatest in these areas. As of Q3 2018, there were six counties where the standardised average rent exceeds 1,000 per month, Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Galway and Kildare. As either the capital city itself or major commuter areas to the city, the high rental levels in these areas relative to other countries reflects the concentration of demand close to the country s largest employment hub. The highest standardised average rents were in Dublin at 1,620. The county with the lowest standardised average rent was Leitrim at 518 per month. This is over 1,100 per month less expensive than rents in Dublin. In general the border and midlands counties had the lowest rents in Q3 2018, with Donegal, Leitrim and Longford all having standardised average rents below 600 euros per month. While rental price levels were highest in Dublin and the surrounding counties, the rate of growth varied across the country in Q Five counties (Carlow, Laois, Mayo, Sligo and Waterford) grew at double digit levels in Q3 2018, representing the fastest growing rents on a year-on-year basis. Rental inflation around 9 per cent was observed in Dublin, Kilkenny, Limerick and Roscommon in Q Three counties had growth below 5 per cent (Donegal, Galway and Monaghan). Galway rents grew by the lowest amount on a year-on-year basis at 2 per cent in Q Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

22 Table 8 RTB Rent Index Irish Counties 5 Index Q Standardised Average Rent Q Standardised Average Rent Q Q-o-Q Change (%) Standardised Average Rent Q Y-on-Y Change (%) Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Dublin Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Highest standardised average rent Dublin 1,620 per month Lowest standardised average rent Leitrim 518 per month 5 Please note the Dublin figures here are those estimated from the model with the three main regions so as to provide one Dublin county figure only. 20

23 Figure 8 Standardised Average Rents by County, Q3 2018,. County Areas Standardised Average Rents by County, Q3 2018, < >No Data Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

24 Figure 9 Year-on-Year Growth Rates by County County Areas Year-on-Year Growth Rates by County No Data 22

25 Figure 10 Share of New Tenancies by County (2018 Q3) County Areas Share of New Tenancies by County (2018 Q3) < No Data 2.3% 2.0% 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 6.9% 1.1% 3.6% 37.1% 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 5.3% 2.2% 1.3% 2.5% 2.6% 11.8% 3.8% Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

26 Local Electoral Area Rent Developments Table 9 reports the recent rent growth at the more granular (Local Electoral Area LEA) level. The table also presents the number of quarters where annualised rent increases have been greater than or equal to 7 per cent and how rent levels in each LEA compares to the national average using the standardised rent approach. This standardised average adjusts for any changes over time in the composition of the housing stock. This table is presented to two decimal places as the calculation of LEA to the national average is completed at this level. Table 9 Rent Growth Summary, Standardised Average Rent and Rent Compared to National Average by LEA Quarters >7% Q Local standardised average compared to standard national average National 4 1, Carlow Muinebeag * * * Cavan - Belturbet Bailieborough - Cootehill Ballyjamesduff West Clare Killaloe Shannon Ennis Kanturk - Mallow Fermoy East Cork Cobh 3 1, Ballincollig - Carrigaline 1 1, Bandon - Kinsale 2 1, West Cork Blarney - Macroom Glenties * * * Letterkenny Inishowen Stranorlar Donegal Conamara Tuam Ballinasloe Loughrea Athenry - Oranmore 5 1,

27 Quarters >7% Q Local standardised average compared to standard national average Galway City West 2 1, Galway City Central 0 1, Galway City East 4 1, Listowel Tralee Killarney South And West Kerry Maynooth 3 1, Celbridge -Leixlip 2 1, Naas 1 1, Athy Kildare -Newbridge 1 1, Castlecomer Kilkenny City East Piltown Kilkenny Citywest Cork City North Central Cork City North East Cork City North West Cork City South Central Cork City South East Cork City South West Borris-In-Ossory -Mountmellick Portlaoise Graiguecullen -Portarlington Manorhamilton * * * Ballinamore * * * Carrick-On-Shannon Newcastle West Adare - Rathkeale Cappamore - Kilmallock Limerick City West Limerick City North Limerick City East Granard * * * Ballymahon Longford Dundalk Carlingford Dundalk South Ardee Drogheda Ballina Claremorris Castlebar West Mayo Kells Laytown -Bettystown Ashbourne Ratoath Trim Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

28 Quarters >7% Q Local standardised average compared to standard national average Navan Monaghan Carrickmacross -Castleblayney Ballybay Clones Birr Tullamore Edenderry Boyle Roscommon Athlone (Co. Roscommon LEA) Ballymote Tobercurry Sligo Nenagh Templemore -Thurles Carrick-On-Suir * * * Clonmel Cashel -Tipperary Dungarvan -Lismore Comeragh * * * Tramore Waterford City West Waterford City South Waterford City East Athlone (Co. Westmeath LEA) Mullingar - Kilbeggan Mullingar - Coole Gorey Enniscorthy New Ross Wexford Baltinglass Bray Greystones Wicklow Arklow Balbriggan Swords Mulhuddart Castleknock Howth - Malahide Stillorgan Dundrum Glencullen - Sandyford Killiney - Shankill Dun Laoghaire Blackrock Lucan Tallaght Central Templeogue - Terenure Rathfarnham Tallaght South

29 Quarters >7% Q Local standardised average compared to standard national average Clondalkin Ballymun Cabra - Finglas Ballyfermot - Drimnagh Crumlin - Kimmage Rathgar - Rathmines Pembroke - South Dock North Inner City Clontarf Beaumont - Donaghmede Notes: * indicates that rents in areas with less than 30 observations are not published for statistical reasons. Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

30 New and Renewal Tenancies The standardised average rent published by the RTB and the ESRI on a quarterly basis covers all new registered tenancies within that quarter which are submitted to the RTB. Existing agreements which are not newly registered are not captured by these data. The report therefore only measures the cost of rents for new tenancies. To attempt to provide insight into the standardised average rent for tenants in existing tenancies, we have developed a new indicator which separates further part IV tenancy renewals (leases which have been renewed after 4/6 years) from other new registrations and calculated separate standardised averages for these two series. It is hoped that this new granular information will provide some insight into the price trends for those households who have spent a longer period in the rental market. Please note these do not reflect the prices for those renters who are renewing leases outside the part IV system for example those renewing after one, two or three years as these are not required to be reregistered with the RTB. To provide overall insight into the trend in new and renewal (further part IV) tenancies, Figure 11 displays the evolution of the shares of each tenancy type between 2013 and the third quarter of Due to data constraints, we cannot begin the renewal series before Q The gap remained relatively stable until the last quarter of 2016, and after that, it narrowed noticeably. As of quarter 3, 2018, nearly 1 in five tenancies (17 per cent) are further part 4 renewals. Figure 11 Evolution of the share new and renewal tenancies Figure 11: Evolution of the share new and renewal tenancies % 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2013 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Share new Share renewal 28

31 Table 10 compares the rent index and standardised average rents for new and renewed tenancies for the period Q to Q The standardisation process used applies an identical methodology as outlined in the appendix for the overall index estimated separately for the new and renewal rents. The year on-year change of standardised average rents increased faster for new tenancies when compared with renewed tenancies. This widening gap can be clearly seen in Figure 12. The quarterly change of standardised average rents is quite volatile, although in this case changes were larger for renewed tenancies. The standardised average rent for new tenancies was 1,208 per month as compared to 956 for further part 4 renewals. The year-on-year growth for new tenancies was 8 per cent as compared to 5.4 per cent for further part IV renewals. 6 Table 10 National New and Renewal Rent Index Period Index (Q = 100) Standardised Average Rent ( ) Year-on-Year % Change Quarter-on-Quarter % Change New Renewal New Renewal New Renewal New Renewal Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q It should be noted that part of the difference between the two series could be due to differences in the property types in the new and further part IV renewal samples. Residential Tenancies Board Rent Index Quarter

32 Figure 12 Evolution of standardised average rents for new and renewal tenancies gure 12: Evolution of standardised average rents for new and renewal tenancies 1, , , Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 New Renewals Tables 11 and 12 report again the rent index and standardised average rents by type of property (i.e. house or apartment), for new and renewed tenancies respectively. The evolution of standardised average rents follows a similar pattern to Figure 12, with a widening gap between standardised average rents for new and renewed tenancies for both types of properties. Table 11 National New Rent Index by House and Apartment Period Index (Q1 2013= 100) Standardised Average Rent ( ) Quarter-on- Quarter Change Year-on-Year Change Houses Apartments Houses Apartments Houses Apartments Houses Apartments Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q