Persistent growth despite large new supply. Philippine Property Digest Q3 2016

Transcription

1 Persistent growth despite large new supply Philippine Property Digest Q3 2016

2 Economy Residential Office 09 The offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) industry continued to be the major source of office space demand with the majority of leasing activity coming from this sector. Five office developments completed in 3Q16, adding approximately 67,600 sqm of office space to the existing stock in Metro Manila. The average vacancy rate in Metro Manila reached 4%, supporting the healthy take-up of office space. GDP growth in 3Q16 at 7.1% was higher than the 3Q15 growth of 6.0%. Average 3Q16 headline inflation was 2.0% and is expected to reach 3.1% by Overseas Filipino (OF) remittances for August 2016 increased 16% y-o-y. 05 Approximately 4,500 units were added to the Metro Manila stock in 3Q16. Approximately 900 units launched in 3Q16, supporting the healthy demand for pre-selling developments. Rents and capital values sustain upward trend A newly constructed hotel development added 150 hotel rooms in 3Q16. The hotel industry is forecast to grow alongside increasing tourist arrivals. Hotel Retail One retail development expanded, adding 57,000 sqm of retail space. Healthy demand for retail space from international and local retailers. 21

3 ECONOMY GDP GROWTH 3Q16 7.1% y-o-y 3Q16 INFLATION 2.0% y-o-y OF REMITTANCES 1.6% y-o-y RESIDENTIAL OFFICE 3Q16 67,600 sqm 3Q16 NEW SUPPLY NEW SUPPLY O&O REMAINS KEY DEMAND DRIVER DEVELOPMENT LAUNCHES 4, units units AVERAGE VACANCY RATE ACROSS METRO MANILA 4% RENTS AND CAPITAL VALUES RETAIL HEALTHY RETAIL SPACE DEMAND FROM FOREIGN AND LOCAL BRANDS NEW SUPPLY 57,000 sqm GROWING ECONOMY AND TAX REFORM TO SUPPORT CONSUMER SPENDING HOTEL 13% 3Q 2016 TOURIST ARRIVAL +150 JAN AUG BOOMING ROOMS (2016 vs. 2015) TOURISM

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5 5 ECONOMY Economy

6 6 ECONOMY PHILIPPINES GDP Growth ( E) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Philippine Statistics Authority; Oxford Economics for forecast figures Inflation Rate ( E) 5.0% E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E GDP growth for 3Q16 was 7.1%, higher than the 6.0% growth registered in 3Q15. The 3Q16 growth rate surpassed China s 6.7%. The high growth for 3Q16 was mainly attributed to the industry and services sectors. The services sector had growth of 6.9%, with more rapid growth in trade, transport, communication, public administration and real estate, renting and business activity. The industry sector, on the other hand, hit 8.6%, mainly due to manufacturing, construction and utilities. Among the major economic sectors, the services sector gave the overall highest contribution to 3Q16 GDP growth, accounting for 4.1 percentage points. Average inflation for September 2016 was 2.3%, higher than the 0.4% recorded in September The average 3Q16 headline inflation rate was 2.0%. There were higher annual increments in the indices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; alcoholic beverages and tobacco; clothing and footwear; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house, and transport. Consumer prices in the country generally increased by 0.2% in September Upward price adjustments in gasoline and diesel and selected items for personal care contributed to the uptrend. The inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1% in % 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Source: BSP; Oxford Economics for forecast figures

7 PHILIPPINES 7 ECONOMY The average 3Q16 exchange rate was PHP per USD 1.0, weaker than the average rate for 2Q16 of PHP per USD 1.0. The average rate for September 2016 of PHP was also a slight decline from the August 2016 rate of PHP per USD 1.0. The depreciation of the Philippine peso can be primarily attributed to the potential increase in US dollar interest rates within the past month. Total OF cash remittances in August 2016 amounted to roughly USD 2.3 billion, a 16% increase from the USD 1.99 billion in August The increase in remittances in August was the highest growth in over two years. The increase in OF remittances was said to be mainly driven by fund transfers for enrolment in the new school year. The shift in the school year forced the migration of OF remittances sent in one month to the next with the shifting schedule of the opening of classes. Foreign Exchange Rate PHP/USD ( E) Exchange Rate (PHP:USD) Source: BSP; Oxford Economics for forecast figures OF Cash Remittances ( E) E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 35.0 OF Cash Remittances (in billion USD) E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Source: BSP; Oxford Economics for forecast figures

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9 Office 9 OFFICE

10 PHILIPPINES 10 OFFICE Grade A Office Stock in Metro Manila by Sub-market ( E) Annual Grade A Office Supply (in thousand sqm) 1,200 1,100 1, Source: JLL Research & Consulting Estimated Vacancy Rates in Metro Manila by Sub-market Sub-market Estimated Vacancy Rates 3Q Q 2016 Makati CBD 3% 5% BGC 3% 3% McKinley Hill 4% 1% Ortigas CBD 1% 1% Quezon City 10% 8% Alabang 5% 3% Bay City 2% 6% Note: Vacancy rates refer to the available office space in existing Prime and Grade A developments. Source: JLL Research & Consulting 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Makati CBD Bonifacio Global City McKinley Hill Quezon City Alabang Bay City Ortigas CBD SUPPLY As at 3Q16, total office supply of Prime and Grade A office buildings in Metro Manila was approximately 5.8 million sqm. Most of the existing office stock was at established CBD areas, namely Ortigas CBD and Makati CBD, with a combined office stock of around 2.7 million sqm. Bonifacio Global City (BGC) is catching up with the office supply of the two CBDs with approximately 1.1 million sqm of office space. Other emerging urban sub-markets in Metro Manila, such as McKinley Hill, Quezon City (includes Eastwood City, Araneta Center, UP-Ayala Technohub and Eton Centris), Alabang and Bay City accounted for close to 2.0 million sqm of office space during the quarter. Five office developments completed One West Campus, Two West Campus and Three West Campus by Megaworld Corporation (MEG) in McKinley Hill, Panorama Techno Center by Panorama Development and UP Town Corporate Center by Ayala Land Inc (ALI) in Quezon City in 3Q16, adding close to 67,600 sqm of office space. From 4Q16 to 2020, the estimated office space to be added to the existing stock is 2.8 million sqm. Notable developments expected to complete include World Commerce Plaza by MEG in BGC, SM Three E-com Center by SM Prime Holdings in Bay City, Megablock BPO I and Megablock BPO II by Filinvest Land Inc (FLI) in Alabang, Alveo Financial Tower by Alveo Land, a subsidiary of ALI, in Makati CBD, and Robinsons Cyberscape Gamma by Robinsons Land Corporation in Ortigas CBD. DEMAND The major source of office space demand in 3Q16 remained the O&O sector, followed by firms from industries such as banking and finance, advertising, marketing, media and gaming. The vacancy rate in Metro Manila remained at low levels, reaching 4% in 3Q16. The sub-markets with the lowest vacancy rate were Ortigas CBD and Bay City, which recorded a vacancy rate of only 1% and 2% respectively, followed by a 3% vacancy rate in Makati CBD and BGC. Meanwhile, Alabang and Quezon City had vacancy rates of 5% and 10%, respectively. Quezon City had the highest vacancy rate on the back of completed developments during the quarter.

11 PHILIPPINES ASSET PERFORMANCE Average office rents in Metro Manila grew steadily backed by healthy demand for office space, especially from the entry and expansion plans of firms from the O&O sector. Rents in Makati CBD and BGC continued to be the highest, ranging from PHP 600 to PHP 1,375 per sqm per month and PHP 640 to PHP 1,100 per sqm per month, respectively. Key sub-markets McKinley Hill and Bay City continued to have rents of around PHP 700 to PHP 840 per sqm per month. The robust macroeconomic fundamentals of the Philippines continued to attract positive investor interest, pushing capital values upwards. In 3Q16, capital values grew positively, with capital values for Grade A office space ranging from PHP 105,000 to PHP 194,000 per sqm in Makati CBD, from PHP 110,000 to PHP 150,000 per sqm in BGC and from PHP 60,000 to PHP 122,000 per sqm in Ortigas CBD. OUTLOOK Estimated Monthly Rents in Metro Manila by Sub-market Sub-market Rental Rate Range (PHP/sqm/month) 3Q Q 2016 Makati CBD 600 1, ,360 BGC 640 1, ,030 McKinley Hill Ortigas CBD Quezon City Alabang Bay City Notes: Rent ranges were quoted as minimum and maximum asking rents, excluding air-conditioning charges and common use service area charges, of existing Prime and Grade A office developments. Source: JLL Research & Consulting 11 OFFICE By end-2017, the expected large incoming supply of office space of approximately 1.0 million sqm in different sub-markets in Metro Manila may push the vacancy rate upwards. Nonetheless, the office market is foreseen to favour landlords, as rents are expected to continue to increase on the back of continued office space demand from O&O firms. Despite the depreciation of the Philippine peso versus the US dollar, O&O firms are likely to expand operations and demand more office space due to the cheap labour pool and lower costs of putting up business in the Philippines. Estimated Capital Values in Metro Manila by Sub-market Sub-market Capital Value Range (PHP/sqm) 3Q Q 2016 Makati CBD 105, , , ,000 BGC 110, , , ,000 Ortigas CBD 60, ,000 60, ,000 Notes: Capital value ranges were quoted as minimum and maximum asking price per square metre, excluding VAT, of existing Prime and Grade A office developments. Source: JLL Research & Consulting

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13 Residential 13 RESIDENTIAL

14 PHILIPPINES 14 RESIDENTIAL Residential Condominium Stock in Metro Manila by Sub-market ( E) Number of Condominium Units 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Makati CBD BGC / Taguig Ortigas McKinley Hill Quezon City Alabang Bay City Newport City Manila/Pasay Pasig/Mandaluyong Note: Residential stock refers to the mid-range to high-end residential condominium supply in Metro Manila. Source: JLL Research & Consulting Development Completions in Metro Manila By Sub-market (3Q16) 2% 14% 9% 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 0.3% SUPPLY Total existing stock of mid-range to high-end residential condominium units as at end-3q16 was estimated at 252,600. Approximately 4,500 units completed in 3Q16. Some of the major developments completed in 3Q16 included Park Terraces Point Tower in Makati CBD; Avida Towers Centera Tower 2 in Ortigas; Skyvillas at One Balete in Quezon City; and Green Residences in Manila. Meanwhile, some of the developments expected to complete in 4Q16 include Avida CityFlex Tower 2 and Horizon Homes Shang at the Fort in BGC; The Sapphire North Tower, Rochester-Breeze Tower, The Grove, Levina Place and One Spatial Pasig in Ortigas Center; The Stratosphere, Signa Residences Tower 2 and Trump Tower in Makati City; 101 Newport Boulevard in Newport City; Capitol Plaza, 53 Benitez, Avida Towers Astrea and Avida Towers Vita in Quezon City. A number of residential projects were launched in 3Q16, namely The Park Central Towers South Tower in Makati CBD; Callisto Tower (Tower 1) in Circuit Makati; and The Veranda at Arca South (North Tower) in BGC. The number of licences to sell (LTS) issued for residential developments in the entire country, measured by the number of residential units, increased by 18% in the first three quarters of 2016 compared with the same period in LTS for the mid- to high-end condominium segment increased by approximately 29%, while LTS for the open market housing units grew by 38% y-o-y. Economic and socialised housing LTS was more or less maintained at the total number of LTS issuances from last year. Approximately 500 projects were issued an LTS in 2016 as of 3Q16, with more than 160,000 residential units. 75% Makati CBD Bonifacio Global City Quezon City Ortigas Note: Completion refers to the total number of units of mid-range to high-end residential condominium developments completed in 3Q16. Source: JLL Research & Consulting

15 PHILIPPINES DEMAND Demand for residential property remained healthy in 3Q16, primarily driven by economic activity, the sustained growth in OF remittances and the continuous expansion of firms in the O&O sector. This continued growth in demand was manifested by the steady growth in demand for housing loans. The Senior Bank Loan Officer Survey released by the BSP maintained a positive Diffusion Index for housing loans in 3Q16, implying a general growth in demand. Vacancy rates in the luxury condominium market in Makati CBD and BGC continued to slide to 4.0% in 2Q16 from the 6.3% of the previous quarter. Demand drivers in the luxury market included high income Filipino individuals, expatriate employees in the O&O sector, and multinational companies. The substantial number of development launches in Metro Manila for the quarter is proof of the maintained pre-selling activity, although expected total launches for the year is expected to be lower than the past few years. Select Newly Launched Projects in Metro Manila (3Q16) Expected Completion Development The Veranda North Tower Callisto Tower 1 Park Central Towers South Tower Developer Ayala Land Inc Ayala Land Inc Ayala Land Inc No. of Units Note: Data on expected completion dates and number of units may change depending on the plans of developers. Source: Various brokers and developers, JLL Research & Consulting 15 RESIDENTIAL ASSET PERFORMANCE Average rents across all sub-markets maintained an upward trajectory for the quarter. Makati CBD and BGC maintained their positions as having the highest rents in Metro Manila, ranging from PHP 600 to PHP 1,000 per sqm per month for mid-range units and from PHP 710 to PHP 1,760 per sqm per month for high-end units. Mid-range residential units in the Ortigas/Mandaluyong sub-market had rents of PHP 360 to PHP 680 per sqm per month. Meanwhile, Alabang commanded rents ranging from PHP 520 to PHP 910 per sqm per month. Asking rents of mid-range units in Quezon City ranged from PHP 420 to PHP 690 per sqm per month. Meanwhile, capital value growth outpaced rent growth. Average capital values of luxury condominiums in Makati CBD and BGC in 3Q16 increased 1.6% q-o-q. BGC and Makati CBD continued to command the highest selling prices in Metro Manila, with capital values in BGC ranging from PHP 105,000 to PHP 180,000 per sqm for mid-range developments and from PHP 145,000 to PHP 188,000 per sqm for high-end developments. Meanwhile, Makati CBD prices ranged from PHP 105,000 to PHP 154,000 per sqm for midrange developments and from PHP 170,000 to PHP 260,000 per sqm for high-end developments. Mid-range developments in the Ortigas/ Mandaluyong sub-market had capital values ranging from PHP 82,000 to PHP 145,000 per sqm and Quezon City had an asking price range of PHP 78,000 to PHP 120,000, while Alabang prices were at PHP 86,000 to PHP 115,000. LTSs issued for Residential Developments in the Philippines (Number of Units) Socialised Housing Economic Housing Low-Cost Condominium Mid-Income Housing Open Market Housing Mid- and High-End Condominium 0 Note: Source of basic data HLURB; estimates and computations by JLL Research & Consulting Source: HLURB 10,000 1Q-3Q16 20,000 30,000 40,000 Number of Units 1Q-3Q15 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

16 PHILIPPINES 16 RESIDENTIAL Estimated Monthly Rents in Metro Manila by Sub-market Sub-market Mid-Range Rental Rate Range (PHP/sqm/month) 3Q Q 2016 Makati CBD BGC 700 1, ,000 Ortigas/ Mandaluyong Quezon City Alabang High-End Makati CBD 710 1, ,750 OUTLOOK Interest in residential investment is expected to increase steadily from expatriate employees as O&O firms continue to expand operations in the Philippines. Moreover, a real estate bubble is unlikely to happen in the next few years as the Residential Real Estate Price Index released by the BSP shows that the prices of residential units are growing steadily, underpinned by continuous healthy demand. The residential condominium market is expected to sustain upward growth in the next few quarters, although the upcoming volume of supply may keep prices from increasing. Approximately 140,000 units are expected to be added to total stock of the Metro Manila residential market from 4Q16 to These upcoming developments will be concentrated in CBDs such as Makati CBD and its fringes, Ortigas CBD and BGC. BGC Note: Rental ranges were quoted as minimum and maximum asking rents per square metre per month in select completed developments per sub-market. Prices are exclusive of VAT and association dues. Source: JLL Research & Consulting Estimated Capital Values in Metro Manila by Sub-market Sub-market Mid-range Capital Value Range (PHP/sqm/month) 3Q Q 2016 Makati CBD 105, , , ,000 BGC 105, , , ,000 Ortigas/ Mandaluyong 82, ,000 79, ,000 Quezon City 78, ,000 78, ,000 Alabang 86, ,000 86, ,000 High-End Makati CBD 170, , , ,000 BGC 145, , , ,000 Note: Capital value ranges were quoted as minimum and maximum asking price per square metre in select completed developments per sub-market. Prices are exclusive of VAT. Source: JLL Research & Consulting

17 Retail 17 RETAIL

18 PHILIPPINES Retail Developments Scheduled for Completion in 4Q16 Development Developer Location Ayala Malls The 30th Sunrise Tiendesitas Building B (redevelopment and expansion) Vertis North Commercial Block Mall Southpark Alabang ALI Ortigas & Co Limited Partnership ALI ALI Pasig City Pasig City Quezon City Alabang, Muntinlupa City SM East Ortigas SMPH Pasig City Bonifacio High Street Central ALI Source: various developers; JLL Research & Consulting BGC Cumulative Existing Retail Shopping Mall Supply in Metro Manila ( E) SUPPLY No new mall opened during the quarter besides the expansion of Festival Mall by FLI in Alabang, which is estimated to add 57,000 sqm of leasable space to the current retail stock. More retail developments are scheduled to come on stream in 4Q16 as developers try to open before the holiday season. The malls will add an estimated 200,000 sqm of retail space. DEMAND Major retail developments in Metro Manila have low vacancy rates due to demand from both international and local retailers. Notable store openings in 3Q16 from new international retailers were Pablo in Robinsons Place Manila in the City of Manila; Llao Llao in Glorietta 2 in Makati City; Rock Mountain Chocolate Factory in SM Megamall in Mandaluyong City; and Delsey in Glorietta 4 in Makati City. Most of the expansion during the quarter came from food and beverage (F&B) retailers such as Bahn Mi Kitchen in Powerplant Mall in Makati City; Harry s in Uptown Mall in BGC; Ippudo in SM Mall of Asia in Pasay City; and Morganfield s in SM Mall of Asia in Pasay City. Non-food store expansions during the quarter included H&M, Adidas Home Court and Birkenstock RETAIL Cumulative Retail Supply (in million sqm) E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Note: Indicated supply is measured in terms of the GFA of the retail developments. Source: JLL Research & Consulting

19 PHILIPPINES OUTLOOK Growth in O&O firms and inflow of OF remittances has increased the purchasing power of Filipinos, which supported the retail industry. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals and healthy consumer spending will drive demand for retail goods. Furthermore, the retail outlook remained positive as the government plans to lower income taxes and possibly boost consumer spending. The positive outlook attracted a number of foreign retailers to open their first stores in the country while local retailers are gearing up their expansion plans. This robust demand is expected to drive rents upward. However, the forecast new retail space inventory is expected to push the vacancy rate upward. New Retailers Entering the Philippine Market in 4Q16 Retailer Brand Country of Origin Retailer Type Pablo Japan F&B Llao Llao Spain F&B Delsey Rock Mountain Chocolate Factory France USA Source: JLL Research & Consulting Travel Bags and Luggage F&B 19 RETAIL

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21 Hotel 21 HOTEL

22 PHILIPPINES Recently Opened Hotels in Metro Manila (3Q16) Development Location No. of Rooms Mercure Hotel Ortigas Ortigas Center, Pasig City Source: JLL Research & Consulting Select Upcoming Hotel Developments (2016E 2020E) Completion Date 2016 Development Marriott West Wing (Manila Expansion) 150 No. of Rooms Grand Hyatt Citadines Millennium Ortigas Savoy Hotel Valero Grand Suites Tryp by Wyndham Manila Somerset Alabang Manila Novotel Emerald Suites Seda Hotel Vertis North Hilton Manila Mercure Hotel Ermita Seda Arca South Sheraton Manila The Westin Manila Sonata Place Novotel Suites Manila The Westin Manila Bayshore Resorts World Bayshore City Westside City Resorts World Bayshore City 600 1, Mandarin Oriental Manila 275 Source: JLL Research & Consulting SUPPLY Metro Manila s hotel industry is expected to expand as tourist arrivals continue to grow. In 3Q16, the only hotel that opened was Mercure Hotel Ortigas, which added 150 hotel rooms to current stock. Approximately 11,200 hotel rooms will be added to existing stock from 4Q16 to Most of the upcoming hotel developments are concentrated in major CBDs, such as Makati City, BGC and Ortigas Center. There is a notable increase of future supply in the Manila Bay Area due to anticipated demand from the gaming industry. Hotels that are expected to complete by 4Q16 are Marriott West Wing (Expansion) in Newport City, I M Hotel and Residences in Makati City, Citadines Millennium Ortigas in Ortigas CBD, Valero Grand Suites in Makati CBD, Tryp by Wyndham Manila in Bay City and The Manila Bay Resorts in Okada Resort in Bay City. DEMAND The growth trajectory of tourism was sustained as forecasts made by the Department of Tourism of 6 million tourist arrivals this year could be reached. From January to August 2016, there were 4.04 million international tourist arrivals recorded, an increase of 12.6% compared with the same period last year. South Korea remained the biggest source of visitors with 976,499 arrivals, accounting for 24.2% of total arrivals. There were 584,149 visitors from the USA, accounting for 14.5% of the total. China placed third with 484,567 visitors and a 12% share, while tourists from Japan reached 367,144 arrivals, corresponding to 9.1% of the total. Australia retained the fifth spot with 161,016 arrivals and a share of 4% of the total. Tourists from China and Taiwan posted the highest growth rate with 50.3% and 30.6%, respectively. 22 HOTEL

23 PHILIPPINES OUTLOOK Tourist arrivals in the Philippines are expected to grow even further, given the government campaign in promoting the tourist spots in the country, as well as the expected completion of infrastructure projects that would improve accessibility in these areas. The country is known for its warmth, friendliness and hospitality, but to sustain the momentum, challenges in infrastructure and worsening traffic should be addressed. Vehicular traffic, airport congestion and a lack of alternative gateways have capped the potential number of tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, international hotel brands, such as Dusit International and Hilton Hotels, and local hotel brands have announced their expansion plans. New hotel operators such as Vista Land & Lifescapes have already forayed into the hospitality business by acquiring Boracay Sands in Station 3, Boracay, and will eventually introduce their own brands to the market. Another new entrant to the hospitality industry is DoubleDragon Properties with its recent 70% stake acquisition of Hotel of Asia, owner of Hotel 101 and the JinJiang Inn Philippines franchise. Demand for hotel accommodation is expected to increase in relation to growth in tourist arrivals. International Tourist Arrivals ( E) International Tourist Arrivals (in millions) E 2017E 2018E 2019E Note: The compounded annual growth rate from 2000 to 2015 was used to forecast tourist arrivals for 2016 to Source: DOT; JLL Research & Consulting for projections 23 HOTEL 2020E

24 For more information, please contact: Claro dg. Cordero, Jr. Local Director Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation JLL Philippines tel mobile Claro.Cordero@ap.jll.com JLL Philippines Note: The Philippine Property Digest covers the Prime and Grade A office, mid-range to high-end residential condominium, retail shopping mall and hotel markets in Metro Manila. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. The items in this publication have been compiled from the various sources acknowledged. The information is from sources we deem reliable; however no representative or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.