Keppel Land in China. May 2006

Transcription

1 1 Keppel Land in China May 2006

2 Presentation Outline Introduction Market Update City Updates Shanghai Tianjin Beijing Wuxi Chengdu Residential Township Development 2

3 3 Introduction

4 KLL s Steps in China Early 1990s Led Singapore consortium in development of Suzhou Industrial Park 1994 Jointly developed Spring City Lake & Golf Resort 2000 Ventured into Shanghai market with land acquisition in Jingan District 2002 Acquired two sites in Beijing and Chengdu Launched One Park Avenue in phases 2003 Forayed into township development with acquisition of Chengdu site Fully sold One Park Avenue 2004 Acquired site in Xujing, Shanghai for villa development Launched 8 Park Avenue in Shanghai, The Seasons in Beijing and The Waterfront in Chengdu in phases 2005 Acquired sites for Tianjin villas and Wuxi township Fully sold The Botanica Phase 1 (970 units) 2006 Increased stake in Dragon Land (67%) Fully sold 456 launched units (5 blks) in 8 Park Avenue Launched The Botanica Phase 2 and received good sales 4

5 KLL in China s Residential Market Presence in 5 cities located in 3 mega regions Development of condominiums, villas as well as township units Slightly more than 15% of assets invested in China Population GDP Year 2005 (million) (US$billion) Greater Beijing Economic Rim * Yangtze River Delta 16 Cities Western Region ** * Includes Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan and other 5 cities around Beijing area ** Chengdu and Chongqing only Figures exclude rural area Source : Municipal Bureaus of Statistics CHENGDU BEIJING TIANJIN WUXI SHANGHAI 5

6 Key Data 2005 Figures Shanghai Beijing Chengdu Tianjin Population (mil) GDP Growth Rate (%) GDP Per Capita (RMB) 51,428 44,969 20,185 35,457 Urban Per Capita Disposable Income (RMB) * 18,645 17,653 11,359 12,639 Growth of Disposable Income (%) Mortgage Rate More than 5.75% for loans over five years Source : Municipal Bureaus of Statistics * Urban Per Capita Disposable Income = Per Capita Household Income Income Tax Four Funds (Housing, Pension, Medical and Unemployment Funds) 6

7 7 Market Update

8 Anti Speculation Measures and Impact Measures in 2005 Mortgage rate hike from 5.31% to 5.51% Loan quantum reduced from 80% to 70% Sales and capital gain tax of 5% Repayment of mortgage before resale of properties Measures in 2006 Further mortgage rate hike to 5.75% Impact Speculation reduced and market stabilised Weak developers eliminated while market share for strong ones increased 8

9 Market Outlook Strong fundamentals and sustainable demand Prices in major cities to remain stable Secondary cities to see better growth Olympic Games to boost Beijing market 9

10 Demand drivers : Rising homeownership aspirations Underpinned by robust economic and income growths Rapid urbanisation Market Outlook Urbanisation rate to reach 61% in 2030 * Increasing middle class and expatriate community Huge young population Half population in age group * More overseas investors Encouraged by robust economy and further RMB appreciation potential * Source : UN Population Division Forecast 10

11 Rapid Urbanisation China urbanisation rate will increase to 61% in 25 years 70% Urbanisation rate from 43% in 2005 to 47% in 2010, and then to over 60% in 2030 By 2020, about 300 mil to relocate from rural to urban areas Urban population as % of total population 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 43% 61% 0% Source : UN Population Division Forecast, National Bureau of Statistics 11

12 Demographics 65 and above 8% Half of population is in the household formation age bracket of Age % in 2005 Age % Age % Source : UN Population Division Forecast 12

13 City Updates Shanghai 13

14 Shanghai Residential Market Condominiums * Estimated demand for 2006 : 15.5 mil sm or approximately 148,000 units Average price : RMB 11,600 psm ^ Prices of new projects : Luxury end : Above RMB 30,000 psm Upper middle to high end : RMB 15,000 30,000 psm Lower middle end : RMB 6,000 15,000 psm Villas Estimated demand for 2006 : 850,000 sm or approximately 2,600 units Average price : RMB 14,000 17,000 psm (RMB 4 8 mil per unit) * Exclude economic housing ^ Within Outer Ring Road Source : Shanghai Real Estate Exchange Centre 14

15 Outlook for Shanghai Market Demand drivers : Growing number of expatriates 4.4 mil expatriates and non Shanghai residents (25% of total residents) as of end 2005 * Income growth Urban personal disposable income rose 60%while savings tripled in last five years * Increasing cross province and overseas investors World Expo 2010 New MRT lines before 2010 Mega projects Maglev train linking Shanghai to Hangzhou High speed train linking Shanghai to Beijing * Source : Municipal Bureau of Statistics 15

16 8 Park Avenue Top 10 Foreign Developers by Shanghai Real Estate Trade Association 946 unit condominium project in heart of Jingan District 5 blocks (456 units) launched and fully sold Latest achieved price : About RMB 22,000 psm 16

17 Villa Riviera 168 unit villa development in Xujing Town, Qingpu District targeted at local upper class and expatriate communities Expected launch : 3Q

18 City Updates Beijing 18

19 Beijing Residential Market Estimated demand for 2006 : 30 mil sm or approximately 300,000 units Average price : RMB 6,900 psm Prices of new projects : High end : Above RMB 10,000 psm Upper middle end : RMB 8,000 10,000 psm Lower middle end : RMB 5,000 8,000 psm Source : Beijing City Construction Research Centre 19

20 Outlook for Beijing Market Demand drivers : Growing number of expatriates 3.6 mil expatriates and non Beijing residents (23% of total residents) as of end 2005 Income growth Urban personal disposable income rose 71%while savings nearly tripled in last five years Positive outlook in the lead up to 2008 Olympics Improvements of infrastructure and living environment, and creation of jobs Source : Municipal Bureau of Statistics 20

21 The Seasons 2005 Most Anticipated Project Award by An Jia magazine 1,859 unit condominium development targeted at middle to upper income homebuyers Near Wang Jing West MRT station and newly opened 2nd largest Ikea outlet globally with NLA of about 43,000 sm 1,381 units or 87% of 1,596 launched units sold to date Latest achieved price : About RMB 8,600 psm 21

22 City Updates Chengdu 22

23 Chengdu Residential Market Estimated demand for 2006 : 7.5 mil sm or approximately 75,000 units Average price : RMB 4,000 psm Prices of new projects : Upper middle to high end : Above RMB 5,000 psm Middle end : RMB 4,000 5,000 psm Lower middle end : RMB 3,000 4,000 psm Source : Chengdu Housing Bureau 23

24 Outlook for Chengdu Market Demand drivers : More people relocating from other cities and countries Low living cost and attractive lifestyle Easing of regulations for resident status Affluent consumption Consumer related businesses accounting for half of GDP Rising income Urban personal disposable income rose 49%while savings surged 150% in last five years 24

25 The Waterfront Most Popular Residential Development with Foreigners in the 2nd China City Property Exposition 2005 Located in south east Chengdu, within 10 minutes drive to city centre 1,143 unit condominium development targeted at middle to uppermiddle class and foreigners 938 units or 89% of 1,054 launched units sold to date Latest achieved price : About RMB 6,400 psm 25

26 City Updates Tianjin 26

27 Background of Tianjin One of four autonomous cities in China alongside Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing Within Greater Beijing Economic Rim, and centre of Huan Bo Hai Economic Region National petrol chemical base and logistic hub of northern China Strong manufacturing and export sectors Fast growing Tianjin Economic Development Area (TEDA) Presence of MNCs as Motorola, Toyota and Samsung 27

28 Tianjin Residential Market Villas Estimated demand for 2006 : 650 units Average price : RMB 12,000 15,000 psm (RMB 3 6 mil per unit ) Source : Tianjin Land Resources and Housing Bureau 28

29 Outlook for Tianjin Market Demand drivers : Urban personal disposable income rose 55% in last five years Government s pledge of RMB 80 billion to expand city infrastructure, including : MRT line Two highways to Beijing Expansion of international airport Faster access to Beijing (30 mins) Beijing Tianjin high speed train to operate before Olympics Source : Municipal Bureau of Statistics 29

30 Tianjin Villa Project 160 unit villa development Near Meijiang Area, a prestigious housing estate Catering to the local upper class and foreigners Within proximity of three economic and science development zones To be launched in 2H

31 City Updates Wuxi 31

32 Background of Wuxi Strategic located in prosperous Yangtze River Delta Region with close economic ties to Shanghai 2005 GDP ranked 2nd * in Jiangsu Province and 4th ** in Yangtze River Delta Region 16 Cities WUXI Ranked 8th ^ in 2005 Top 10 China Cities in terms of GDP growth, city infrastructure and living standards Renowned tourist city, with Yangtze River and Taihu Lake as key attractions Yangtze River Delta Region * After Suzhou ** After Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou ^ After Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Suzhou 32

33 Outlook of Wuxi Market Demand drivers : Urban personal disposable income rose 86% while savings surged 150% in last five years Strong urban housing demand with 70% transactions in RMB 3,000 6,000 psm range for 2005 High level of local demand ideal for township development : About 85% local home buyers Source : Municipal Bureau of Statistics, Wuxi Housing Bureau 33

34 Residential Township Development 34

35 Push for Township Opportunities Demand drivers : Strong economic growth in second tier cities Wealth effect spreading to middle to lower middle income groups Increasing mass market demand from rapid urbanisation New concept with promising prospects Substantial demand amid short supply of good quality housing Unaffected by government measures due to less speculation Provides long term steady income stream 35

36 The Botanica 2005 Most Reasonable Priced Project in Chengdu by Chengdu Residential Property and Real Estate Association Located in the southeast Chengdu, near Sichuan Normal University About 8,000 units of low and high rise apartments and commercial buildings Targeted at local middle income group Launched and sold out Ph 1 (970 units) 96% of launched 324 units in Ph 2 sold to date 36

37 Wuxi Residential Township 35 ha site in southeast Wuxi, close to : Proposed municipal administrative office A university town A high tech IT park About 5,000 units of low and high rise apartments, commercial buildings and amenities Targeted at local middle income group First phase to launch in

38 38 Thank You

39 39 This presentation may contain statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements, which are based on the current views of Management on future developments and events.