Economy. Denmark Market Report Q Weak economic growth. Annual real GDP growth
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1 Denmark Market Report Q 1 Economy Weak economic growth In 13, the economic growth in Denmark ended with a modest growth of. % after a weak fourth quarter with a decrease in the activity. So Denmark is yet to experience high economic growth after the financial crisis in. In the years and 9 we saw a decline in the economic growth, while in 1 we saw a growth of 1. %. However, since then the economic activity has slowed down slightly, reaching its lowest point in 1, when growth was negative. In the years ahead, most economic forecasts project growth between 1 and %. Just like the economic growth in Denmark, the European growth is characterised by a low growth rate with a few exceptions. The growth in the USA is somewhat higher than in our part of the world. Overall, global economy is gradually recovering, and this recovery is expected to continue for the next years. The consumer confidence figures of the first half of 1 came in around 5, which is an increase compared to the average of recent years. The high level of consumer confidence holds out hopes of Danish consumption increasing in the future and thus generating higher sales in the retail industry. Also the labour market is regaining strength. According to the latest figures, the gross unemployment level dropped to 5.1 % of the labour force, which is the lowest level since June 9. The residential property market is very stable at the moment. On a national basis both prices of owner-occupied apartments and houses are almost stable. However, there are considerable regional variation with falling prices in some parts of the country and increasing prices in other parts especially in the large cities. A positive sign in the residential property market is that the length of time to sell properties is declining in all regions, which reflects a more active market. Inflation is still very low in Denmark, slightly lower than in the EU as a whole. Countries such as Germany and Great Britain make EU inflation rise, while other countries such as, for example, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus and Croatia with negative inflation bring down the EU inflation. Annual real GDP growth You may quote from this report provided the source is acknowledged. Decisions in relation to real estate should always be assessed thoroughly, and all parties should thus examine the market in detail. Notwithstanding that we have examined and reviewed the information in the report with great care, Colliers International Danmark disclaims any responsibility for losses based on information in this report Exchange rates (June 1) DKK per 1 units of foreign currency EUR > 7 USD > 5 GBP > 93 SEK > 1 NOK > and Danmarks Nationalbank Note: 1, 15 and 1 are based on estimates.
2 Investment Stable transaction level The demand for investment properties from a number of investors is increasing. Residential rental properties are selling like hot cakes. The buyers of old residential properties are both private wealthy persons and often local property companies. The old residential properties are often sold at fairly low yields due to the development opportunities of the properties and the expectations of very low vacancy both now and in the future. If there are one or two vacant apartments in a small property in, for example, a university city, it sometimes happens that these small properties are bought by parents who initially intended to buy an apartment to let to their children, but ended up buying the entire property, thus providing an apartment for their children while at the same time making a good investment. Institutional investors and major foreign investors often buy newly built residential properties primarily in the largest cities. The Danish Rent Act is much less complicated in respect of new residential properties, and moreover it is possible to sell the property as owner-occupied apartments if at some point it proves profitable. In 13, the property transaction volume ended at almost the same level as in 1, viz. approx. DKK 1bn. The transaction volume was much higher in 5-7, while the current transaction level corresponds to the level of -. The figures include commercial and residential property transactions, but only residential properties with more than four apartments. The figures do not include company transactions. In addition to residential properties, the demand for properties in prime locations is strong. This applies to both retail properties, for example, in Strøget in and in the centres of other cities, and centrally located office properties. The buyers are large property companies, institutional investors and especially foreign investors. Urban development in both and is brisk. In, buildings are shooting up on the waterfront i.e. residential properties, offices and educational institutions. In addition, CeresByen is well underway with, among other things, the new Via Campus with teaching facilities of 5, square meters and Nira s new office building. In, focus is on the development in and around Nordhavnen, where the award-winning UN building has really boosted the development of the area. Transactions DKK bn and Colliers Note: Transactions include office, industrial, logistics and retail properties as well as residential properties, but only residential properties with more than four apartments. Interest rate % month money market interest rate Bond rate 1-year government bond Mortgage banks and banks are still conservative when issuing credit ratings, but there seems to be some softening. It is easiest to obtain financing for, among others, the segment of residential properties, especially in the large cities. Generally, it is easiest to obtain financing for core investments, but the investor s financial position is still considered carefully. Despite earlier expectations of increases in interest rates, the short-term interest rates remain low, and the yield on 1-year government bonds has fallen slightly after having shown an upward trend. Denmark Market Report Q 1 Investment Colliers International Danmark
3 Office Marginally decreasing vacancy rate The office vacancy rate decreased marginally from the first quarter to the second quarter of 1, and the vacancy rate is thus now 1.1 % nationwide. The level recorded at year-end 13/1 after the fairly large increase up to year-end is thus retained. The highest vacancy rate is measured in the suburbs of, but vacancy rates are also high, for example, in North Zealand, Jutland and Funen. The vacancy rate in the city of has declined significantly (.9 percentage points) over the past quarter and is now 9. %, which is roughly equivalent to the level in 13. Office vacancy rate, April The office market is still a tenant s market providing good possibilities for tenants to negotiate favourable terms, for example, concerning fitting up, low start rent, etc. Colliers sees that a number of companies have become more optimistic, which means increasing demand for office premises located centrally in several cities, for example, in and, although the vacancy rates in both cities are still high. The increased demand is aimed primarily at modern premises, which is due mainly to the higher efficiency in these premises, and consequently less square meters are needed per employee, and the energy consumption is lower. Alone due to its size, is its own market, but with many sub-districts with different characteristics. In the central part of, there are only few modern and efficient premises, but a large number of old and small premises with soul. A large number of companies still want a central location, but the demand is also strong in, for example, Ørestad. Here it is possible to find modern offices at a slightly lower rent than, for example, on the waterfront. Total office vacancy rate (%) Market rent for office space, April The long-term trend of population growth in and in other large Danish cities also means increased demand for office space, as population growth eases the access to employees, just as it makes demand increase and affects the general optimism in the companies. Finally, population growth means that some offices in the old buildings are converted from commercial to residential use. Services indicator % , 1,3 (175) 95 (15) 1, 1,5 1,1 (135) (1) (15) Office yield, April % 5.5 %. % 5.75 %. %. % () Note: Turnover, balance Note: Modern and old properties in prime locations 3 Denmark Market Report Q 1 Office Colliers International Danmark
4 Retail Strong consumer confidence Retail vacancy rate, April 1. The retail vacancy rate was. % as at 1 April 1, virtually corresponding to the level of the previous two years. Colliers estimates that the vacancy rates are highly variable with almost non-existent vacancy rates in prime locations, but quite high vacancy rates in secondary locations. There may be local variations to this pattern, especially in cities where shopping centres have recently been established or new ones are in the pipeline. In such cities vacancy is affected by relocations a long time before and after the establishment of such centres. The market rent level follows more or less the vacancy level. Rents in prime locations are not under pressure, and key money is paid in connection with a number of leases. However, rents in secondary locations are under some pressure, allowing tenants to negotiate favourable terms. As mentioned in the general economic description, the latest figures for consumer confidence are quite good. In the first half of 1 consumer confidence is at approx. 5, which is an increase compared to the average of recent years. This level gives hope that Danish consumption will increase for the benefit of the retail industry. The figures of the Retail Trade Index of Statistics Denmark show marginal (seasonally adjusted) growth in sales in the first quarter of 1 compared to the previous quarter. Sales of clothing have fallen slightly, while sales of everyday necessities and other consumer goods have increased. On a long-term basis, the trade index remains well below the value of the index in, for example, 7, but the level is higher than at the beginning of the millennium Total retail vacancy rate (%) Another important factor affecting retail sales is the development of internet shopping, the development of which is followed by everybody, but the consequences of which no one fully knows. There is no doubt that technology has given the consumers new shopping opportunities from a wide range of specialist shops in Denmark and abroad. In addition to the wider choice generated by the specialisation, e-shops also result in pressure on prices. There has to be a reason to visit a physical shop, which central shopping streets and city environments often provide through the great shopping experience, but other shops are not quite as often able to provide this. Consumer confidence and retail sale in Denmark Market rent for retail space, April 1.5 %.5 %, 5,5 (735),5 3,3 () 3,1 5,5 (15) (735) (5) Retail yield, April % 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.5 % (,95) Note: Retail properties, for example, in pedestrian zones with premises suitable for durable consumer goods in prime locations Denmark Market Report Q 1 Retail Colliers International Danmark
5 Industrial and logistics Accessibility is important The industrial and logistics vacancy rate was 3.9 % nationally as at 1 April 1. This is a marginal decrease compared to the previous quarter, and nominally it is the first time that the vacancy rate has been under % since the summer of 1, albeit only marginally. The demand for old industrial properties is not high enough to prevent vacant facilities in many areas. Often the facilities are not up-to-date, and they are customised to a specific use. For many companies, it would be more profitable to build new facilities in order to have them customised and to achieve energy-efficient facilities. This also implies that many of these facilities can be let or acquired at an exceptionally low price. In some areas industrial buildings are converted into other uses such as residential use, offices and creative entrepreneurial clusters. However, in most cases this is only relevant if the location is close to urban areas, so that the new activity is combined with the existing city. Otherwise, the demand is by far strongest for large, well-located properties with good accessibility. Colliers estimates that the demand for this type of property is currently increasing. There is also demand for land for new building projects which can provide modern and customised facilities. The difference between the market rent of such new buildings and old industrial and logistics properties is substantial. In addition, the difference between the market rent of newly built and existing properties is also substantial. The new properties can be customised to the requirements of the individual businesses, and the operating costs can be minimised. The market rent specified in Colliers MarkedsPULS reflects the level of modern, but not newly built industrial and logistics properties. Industrial and logistics vacancy rate, April Total industrial and logistics vacancy rate (%) Market rent for industrial and logistics space, April 1.1 (55) 1 The market for industrial properties in general remains a tenant s market. Market rent is under pressure in some areas and elsewhere, the tenants can negotiate a number of favourable terms. 35 (5) 75 (35) 3 () Employment in manufacturing (1, persons) 35 3 (5) () Industrial and logistics yield, April %.5 % 7.5 % Note: Modern properties in prime locations 5 Denmark Market Report Q 1 Industrial and logistics Colliers International Danmark
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