INSIGHTS ON THE PHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE MARKET. David Leechiu CEO March 2017
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1 INSIGHTS ON THE PHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE MARKET David Leechiu CEO March
2 THE PHILIPPINES
3 The Philippines 103 million POPULATION LITERACY RATE 97.5% LABOR FORCE 68.1 Mn 24 years old Average age of Filipinos 6.8% GROWTH GDP 2.6% INFLATION RATE PHILIPPINE GDP $292.45B FOREIGN RESERVES $81B D E B T E X T E R N A L $76.62B (SEPT 2016) P U B L I C 47.4% of GDP (1H2016) S & P MOODY S FITCH CREDIT RATING BBB Baa2 BBB- Source: Trading Economics, BSP 3
4 Foreign Investment in the Philippines 40% FOREIGN EQUITY LIMIT LEASE TERM 25 years Renewable for another 25 years In some cases, 50 years Renewable for another 25 years 30% CORPORATE INCOME TAX PERSONAL INCOME TAX 32% If annual net taxable income is at least P500,000 annual income (USD10,000) 4
5 Philippine Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Source: World Bank 5
6 Government s Socioeconomic Agenda PRES. DUTERTE S 10-POINT SOCIOECONOMIC AGENDA Current macroeconomic policies Tax Reform Ease of Doing Business Infrastructure Spending Rural and value chain development Security and land tenure Human Capital Development Science, technology, and creative arts Social protection programs Responsible Parenthood & Reproductive Health Source: DOH 6
7 Demand Drivers Urban Population Growth BPO Employee s Housing Need Overseas Filipino Remittances 48.6% of Filipinos live in Urban Areas* Growing number of BPO workers Need to live near their workplace. 10 million OF s can invest in Real Estate It is projected to rise to 56.3% by 2030 and 66% by Housing backlog needs to be addressed and demand for dormitories will rise. More than 50% of remittances are real estate related Source: Keynote speech of Sec. Arsenio M. Balisacan Director General of NEDA The Philippine Economic Growth and the Growth in the Property Sector 2015 *
8 Metro Manila Cityscapes Most of these districts will be fully developed by There will be little land left for development. The most important districts moving forward will be Bonifacio Global City, Bay Area, Filinvest City, and Arca South. Quezon City MAKATI 3 MAJOR CBDs MAKATI CBD. CENTURY CITY. ROCKWELL CENTER. CIRCUIT MAKATI. ORTIGAS BGC ORTIGAS CBD. ROCKWELL BUSINESS CENTER. ARCOVIA CITY. SILVER CITY. CAPITOL COMMONS. BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY. MCKINLEY WEST. MCKINLEY HILL. UPTOWN. VERITOWN. 46 BUSINESS PARKS QUEZON CITY. UP TECHNOHUB. EASTWOOD CITY. ETON CENTRIS. ARANETA, CYBERARK. ROBINSONS BRIDGETOWNE IT PARK. VERTIS NORTH. UP TOWN CENTER. FAIRVIEW TERRACES. ALI CLOVERLIEF BALINTAWAK. NUVO. MANDALUYONG. GREENFIELD DISTRICT. ROBINSONS CYBERGATE. ROCKWELL SHERIDAN. SAN JUAN. ROCKWELL HILLSIDE. MUNTINLUPA. FILINVEST CORPORATE CITY. LA FUERZA. NORTHGATE CYBERZONE. MADRIGAL BUSINESS PARK. ALABANG WEST. TAGUIG. ARCA SOUTH. LAS PINAS. PORTOFINO. EVIA. PASAY. NEWPORT CITY. SM MALL OF ASIA COMPLEX. METROPOLITAN BUSINESS PARK. DOUBLE DRAGON CYBERCAMPUS. FILINVEST CYBERZONE PASAY. PARANAQUE. ASIAWORLD CITY. ASEANA BUSINESS PARK. AYALA ASEANA. MANILA. CITYPLACE. SAN LAZARO. Manila Bay/ Pasay Las Pinas Makati Parañaque San Juan Mandaluyong Alabang BGC / Taguig Ortigas/ Pasig 8
9 Regional Cityscapes LAOAG. CAMELLA. VALDEZ CENTER. CAGAYAN. CAGAYAN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE AND FREEPORT. BAGUIO. BAGUIO AYALA LAND TECHNOHUB. SM BAGUIO CYBERZONE BUILDING. PCH IT CENTER. ABANAO SQUARE. TARLAC. LUISITA BUSINESS PARK. TARLAC PROVINCIAL IT PARK. BULACAN. PDC TECHNOPARK. ALTARAZA. FIRST BULACAN IT PARK. CIUDAD DE VICTORIA. ABS-CBN CAMPUS. URDANETA. CB MALL. Over 80 I.T. parks and business districts Countryside development going through unprecedented construction boom driven by BPO and tourism. PAMPANGA. CLARK SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE. PHILEXCEL BUSINESS PARK. BERTAPHIL BUSINESS PARK. SM CITY CLARK. CLARK GREEN CITY. GGLC. NEPO CENTER. ALVIERRA. CAPILION. AKLAN. BORACAY NEW COAST. CAPIZ. PUEBLO DE PANAY TECHNOPARK. ILOILO. ILOILO TECHNOHUB. ATRIA PARK DISTRICT. GAISANO CAPITAL. AYALA SICOGON. ILOILO BUSINESS PARK. BACOLOD. LOPUE S EAST IT CENTER. ONE AND TWO SANPARQ. THE BLOCK IT PARK. ROBINSONS CYBERGATE CENTER. LOPUE S SOUTHSQUARE IT PARK. BACOLOD IT PARK. CAPITOL CENTRAL. DUMAGUETE. DUMAGUETE BUSINESS PARK. LINKSYS IT PARK. LP IT PARK. YY STAR DAS. LAOAG BAGUIO TARLAC PAMPANGA PANGASINAN CAVITE / BATANGAS / LAGUNA PALAWAN AKLAN ILOILO CAGAYAN BULACAN QUEZON CAPIZ BACOLOD DUMAGUETE ZAMBOANGA Legend: 6 9 CEBU 4 Approximately 132,000 hectares 4 CAGAYAN DE ORO 1 of master-planned or mixed-use developments CAVITE. BATANGAS. LAGUNA. VERMOSA. PONTEFINO. SUNTECH IT PARK. HAMILO COAST. SMDM IT CENTER. SOUTHFORBES IT PARK. SOUTHWOODS. NUVALI. ETON CITY. GREENFIELD CITY. PUERTO AZUL. CEBU. CEBU IT PARK. CEBU SRP. CEBU BUSINESS PARK. MACTAN NEWTOWN. ABOITIZLAND CEBU. WATERFRONT TOWNSHIP. CITTA DE MARE. SMC. OAKRIDGE BUSINESS PARK DAVAO. MATINA IT PARK. ABREEZA. DAVAO PARK DISTRICT. LANANG IT PARK. DAMOSA IT PARK. NORTHPOINT. CAMELLA. CIUDADES. LUBI ISLAND PLANTATION. 9 DAVAO GENERAL SANTOS Number of townships Unprecedented countryside development. PALAWAN. LIO RESORT TOWN. SAN VICENTE. QUEZON. BALESIN ISLAND CLUB ZAMBOANGA. MEGALAND MALL. CITYMALL ZAMBOANGA. ZAMBOECOZONE AND FREEPORT NEW TOWNSHIP. ZAMBOECOZONE HIGHLANDS. CAGAYAN DE ORO. LIMKETKAI CENTER. SM CITY BPO 2. CENTRIO. ONE PROVIDENCE. 9
10 Growth Sectors Source: UNWTO, ibpap, World Bank 10
11 PH Growth Amidst Historical Events EDSA II EDSA III 9-11 Phil. General Elections Dos Palmas Kidnapping Bombing in Zamboanga Capture and sentence of Jemaah Islamiyah Oakwood Mutiny SARS Outbreak Jemaah Islamayah escape Jose Pidal plunder case Davao airport bombing Infanta Mud Slide Superferry Bombing Phil. General Elections General Santos Christmas Bombing V-day Bombing Hello Garci Scandal General Santos City Mall Bombing Milenyo Southern Leyte Mud Slide State of Emergency Declaration ZTE Scandal Conviction of ERAP Glorietta 2 Bombing Manila Peninsula Mutiny Cotabato Bus Station Bombing Congress Bombing Cotabato City Bombing Ces Drilon Kidnapping MV Princess of the Star Sank ZTE-NBN Irregularities Meralco Stockholders Meeting H1N1 Outbreak Typhoon Ondoy Typhoon Pepeng Typhoon Marakot Superferry sank in Zamboanga Death of Corazon Aquino Greenbelt 5 Robbery Maguindanao Massacre Typhoon Megi Manila Hostage Crisis Phil. General Elections DLSU explosion during Bar Exams Inauguration of Pres. Noynoy Aquino Vizconde Massacre Case Finished Makati Bus Explosion Tropical Storm Juaning Typhoon Sendong Arrest of former Pres. Gloria Arroyo Corona Impeachment Trial Typhoon Pablo Cebu Governor Suspension 6.9 Magnitude Earthquake Negros and Cebu Tropical Dispute with China Super Typhoon Haiyan Cebu Ferry Tragedy Killing of Taiwanese Fisherman Senate Pork Barrel Scam Hearing 5.4 Magnitude Earthquake Cebu and Bohol Typhoon Hagupit Binay Alleged Corruption Hearings DMCI Construction Hearings Pres. Aquino s Final SONA Kentex Manufacturing Slippers Factory Fire Typhoon Nona Typhoon Koppu PNP-SAF killed in Maguindanao GDP expanded by 7% National and Local Elections Rodrigo Duterte proclaimed as new Pres. Pres. Duterte enjoys a record high trust rating of 92% Spratly Islands Dispute Davao Bombing War on Drugs Above investment grade rating (BBB) State of Emergency Declaration Overseas Filipinos Remittance BPO Revenue Tourism Receipts E 11
12 METRO MANILA OFFICE MARKET
13 Metro Manila Current vs. Pipeline Supply Current vacancy rate across Metro Manila is at an all time low of 3.8%. As of March 2017, there is a record number of 518,500 sqm pre-commitments for office space for Bonifacio Global City, Quezon City, and Bay Area will more or less double its office space stock in the next 6 years. Future office supply will mostly come from BGC, followed by Ortigas/Pasig/Mandaluyong, and Bay Area. 13
14 Metro Manila Supply Pipeline Per District, per Year (2017 to 2023E) *Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm) 14
15 FY 2016 Supply and Demand *Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
16 Metro Manila Demand Activity 2016 By Location and Industry 70% of demand are coming from the information technology business process management (IT-BPM) industry and 60% prefer Bonifacio Global City (BGC) over any other district. By Location By Industry *Online gaming transactions are concentrated in the Bay Area 16
17 2017E Supply and Demand 2017 supply is also at an historical high of 1,269,618 square meters, most of which are in BGC, constructed at a much higher grade of specification, materials, workmanship, and quality, and catering primarily to multinational corporate tenants. Nonetheless, demand for 2017 is forecasted to reach new heights judging by the significant and unprecedented level of pre-commitments of 518,500 sqm by tenants to buildings under construction. *Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
18 Metro Manila Demand Activity 2017E By Location and Industry 18
19 PEZA Status 2016, 2017E and 2018E Office Buildings IT-BPM tenants, a significant driver in the demand for office space, need to locate in PEZA-certified buildings. Currently, there is a risk of scarcity of such PEZA-registered projects, as so few have been granted this status in the last seven months only two buildings in Metro Manila, one in Luzon, and one in the Visayas. For the supply in 2017, only 15% are PEZA spaces with vacancies; others are either leased or non-peza. Much of the vacant PEZA buildings are due for completion at the end of 2017 and are at risk of delays (Q1- or Q2-2018) We forecast rents for these PEZA buildings to be driven up, given the limited supply and the significant demand from IT-BPM tenants for them.
20 PEZA Status By District 2017E to 2023E Total PEZA-Accredited space: 1,314,148 sqm (36 buildings) Total space under application for PEZA: 2,210,445 sqm (81 buildings) Total non-peza space: 485,998 sqm (17 buildings) 4.01M sqm Total supply E *Gross Leasable Area in thousands (sqm)
21 Metro Manila Current Supply Developer Market Share (1960 s to 2016) 21
22 Metro Manila Supply Pipeline Developer Market Share (2017 to 2023E) 22
23 Metro Manila Rental Range (PhP per sqm. per month) 23
24 Land Values by Business District Business District *FAR Range Y-o-Y Increase % ( ) Land Values Php/sqm (2015) Accommodation Value GFA/sqm (2015) Land Values Php/sqm (2016) Accommodation Value GFA/sqm (2016) Y-o-Y Increase % ( ) Filinvest City % 99k 264k 19, k-280k 20,000 6% Arca South 6 8 0% 210k 220k 28, k-280k 35,000 27% Bay City 6 38% 150k 180k 30, k 33,000 10% Bonifacio Global City % 270k 600k 40, k-900k 60,000 50% Makati % 210k 560k 35, k 800k 50,000 43% Ortigas N/A 10% 109k 223k N/A 200k 350k N/A 57% Bonifacio Global City still has the highest land values in the Philippines in the last 10 years. 24
25 PROVINCIAL OFFICE MARKET
26 Provincial Pipeline (2017 to 2022E) PROVINCES Supply (sqm) CEBU 464,766 CALABARZON 258,777 DAVAO 92,919 PAMPANGA 126,614 ILOILO 72,168 BACOLOD 36,000 REST OF LUZON 156,590 REST OF VISAYAS 40,039 REST OF MINDANAO TOTAL 41, M sqm
27 Provincial Pipeline Developer Market Share (2017 to 2022E) 27
28 IT-BPM MARKET
29 Philippine IT-BPM Sector Revenue and Employment Forecast 2022 Outlook Philippines will move up the value curve with the help of high-value services. *Source: IBPAP s Roadmap 2022, Frost & Sullivan analysis, IBPAP data for
30 BPO Distribution NORTH AND CENTRAL LUZON 6% 70% NCR CALABARZON 3% 3% REST OF VISAYAS 15% CEBU 1.15million Estimated Number of FTEs by end of 2016 MINDANAO 3% LEGEND Luzon Visayas Mindanao 30
31 Next Wave Cities Recommended Provincial Locations Taytay Binangonan Antipolo Cainta Calamba Imus Dasmarinas Rosario Bacoor RIZAL LAGUNA CAVITE MISAMIS ORIENTAL Cagayan De Oro Tuguegarao Dagupan CAGAYAN PANGASINAN Meycauayan Malolos BULACAN BATANGAS Batangas City Healthy labor pool, local government support, fiber optic connectivity, accessibility and strong tourism play attract IT-BPM companies to locate in these provinces. LEGEND Untapped locations for IT-BPMs Presence of 3+ IT-BPM locators AKLAN Kalibo LEYTE Tacloban BOHOL Tagbilaran 31 31
32 RESIDENTIAL MARKET
33 Residential Outlook 2017 BPO sector creating a new breed of condominium dwellers Strong presence of OFWs, major bulk of growing middle income market Only condominiums will continue to grow in NCR because there is no more supply of developable land for residential open lots, but reaching a plateau Thriving condo living to drive demand for home furnishings, accessories. Construction delays will continue to temper growth across real estate segments Developers have no more significant landbank, thus the direction to go out of NCR Significant unmet housing demand needs a unified government effort 33
34 Continuous Increase in Residential Constructions (Philippines) Top 5 regions in terms of number of construction: Region IV-A (CALABARZON) 25%, Region III (Central Luzon) 11% NCR 10% Region VII (Central Visayas) 10% Region X (Northern Mindanao) 7% 34
35 Top 10 Remitting Countries to PH As of 2016 Jan-Dec 2015 US$25.6Bn VS Jan Dec 2016 US$26.8Bn 60% of remittances go to the real estate sector Philippines is the 3 rd largest recipient of foreign remittances next to India and China USA is the highest contributor with 33% of total remittance flows *Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 35
36 Residential Condominium GFA vs. Office GLA vs. Interest rates *Source: BSP; PSA 36
37 Residential Condominium Supply *As of December 2016 *Package Price based on most saleable unit type per development (Mostly Studio -2BR with sizes ranging from sqm) 37
38 Price per square meter Minimum price Maximum price 38
39 Historical Residential Rental Rate *Based on typical studio or 1BR unit 39
40 Residential Historical Land Values (2011 to 2015) 40
41 TRENDS Tourism Artificial Intelligence
42 2015 Int l Tourist Arrivals Asia Pacific Source: UNWTO 42
43 Philippine Tourist Arrivals Domestic and International 1H2016: Total of 44 million tourist arrivals Source: DoT 43
44 Philippine Tourism National Tourism Development Plan target areas: - Enhanced air access - Increased accommodation capacity - Improved human resources - Stepped up marketing campaigns Luzon TOTAL (Philippines) No. of Accommodation 10,194 No. of Rooms 240,435 Ave. Occupancy Rate 67% Visayas Ave. Length of Stay 2 Days Source: DOT Mindanao 44
45 Philippine Flight Ratios Land mass (ha) Population North Luzon 9,566,801 35,460,000 No. of Airports and Flights* 7 49 flights daily Annual Passenger Footprint 1,527,333 South Luzon (excluding Metro Manila and Palawan) 3,019,850 8,700, flights daily 241,711 Metro Manila 63,600 12,221,000 *Palawan 1,489, , flights daily 4 42 flights daily 36,681, ,635 Visayas City (excluding Cebu City) 5,629,100 24,299, flights daily 8,599,860 Cebu City 31, , flights daily 7,781,239 Mindanao (excluding Davao City) 9,753,000 23,167, flights daily 3,245,471 Davao City 244,000 1,449, flights daily 2,790,000 *Palawan will become the most accessible with 4 upcoming new and expanded airports completed by 2017 *inbound and outbound flights. No. of airports include pipeline. Source: Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (via Wikipedia website), ourairports.com, NSCB statistics 45
46 Metro Manila Hotels: 2010 to
47 Top 5 Source Markets Source: DoT 47
48 Chinese Tourist Arrivals Source: DOT, China National Tourism Administration 48
49 Artificial Intelligence In the next 15 years, 45% to 75% of existing offshore jobs in the financial services sector will be performed by robotic process automation. - KPMG Machine-human parity may reach a 1:1 ratio by 2040 Automation would erase 22.7 million US jobs by 2025 Tech Companies spent USD 8.5 billion last 2015 on artificial intelligence, four times more than in 2010 By 2018, global sales of industrial robots will grow an average y-o-y by 15% - units sold will double to around 400,000 units Global Robotics Market is expected to reach USD 82.7 billion by 2020 Asia was the biggest robot market (139,000 units) in 2014, 41% higher than in 2013 Worldwide market value for robot systems in 2014 is estimated to be USD 32 billion Artificial Intelligence Funding 2016 Funding USD 974M 2020 Funding USD 70B 49
50 ABOUT LEECHIU PROPERTY CONSULTANTS
51 MISSION To deliver superior value and profitable real estate solutions for likeminded partners through local, dynamic & insightful property-related expertise in corporate leasing and investments. To be the advisor of choice who provides the most strategic and outstanding property-related advice, solutions and services to our customers. Our company values unity, integrity and passion for excellence. VISION Together, our firm, redefines the real estate industry by being a catalyst of sustainable growth, through principled and expert property consulting advice and action.
52 Our Services Occupier Solutions Project Leasing IT-BPM Site Selection Investment Sales Research & Consultancy The Philippines deepest bench of seasoned real estate advisors & brokers
53 Occupier Solutions Occupier Solutions transactions to date Closed Deals Live Deals 82,000 SQM 333,000 SQM Our Clients IT-BPM Site Selection Clients
54 Project Leasing We also advise and support landlords, building owners and real estate developers. Our leasing experts create and implement strategies for finding the right tenant mix and ensure maximum occupancy in a timely manner. Our real estate brokers have managed to lease more than thirty office buildings in Metro Manila on behalf of developers. Currently marketing 28 projects Total of 722,000 sqm BGC. Citibank Plaza. Ecoprime. Menarco Tower. Net Park. Milestone at Fifth Avenue. Orē Central. The Curve. Twenty-five Seven McKinley. W CityCenter. W Fifth Avenue. W Global Center. W Office at High Street. High Street South Corporate Plaza I QUEZON CITY. Hexagon Corporate Center. One Luna Global Connections. Panorama Technocenter. ALABANG. Asian Star Building MAKATI CITY. Frabelle Salcedo. Liberty Plaza. M1 Tower. MJ Corporate Plaza. Nex Tower. ORTIGAS CENTER. St. Francis Square. BAY AREA. DoubleDragon Plaza. Nexgen Tower. CAVITE. Suntech ipark. CEBU. Latitude Corporate Center. Mabuhay Tower. Looking to exclusively handle more project leasing appointments across the Philippines in 2017
55 Investment Sales LPC officially started October 1, 2015 and in the first year of operating, we have concluded the following: PhP 3.5 billion or USD 70 million Prime Commercial Lots in Bonifacio Global City Office floor in Grade AAA building along Ayala Avenue, Makati Prime Residential Apartment Building in Salcedo Village, Makati Residential Apartment Buildings in Kalayaan Avenue, Makati Office floors in Filinvest City LPC looking to transact circa PhP 25 billion or USD 500 million in 2017 USD to PHP $1 : PHP Source: Investment Sales pipeline as of January
56 Research and Consultancy Our research and consultancy arm allows us to offer to clients a full suite of consulting services that include business planning, highest and best use studies, market research, project conceptualization, and project feasibility. Completed Projects Highest and Best Use Study Central Business District: Project Cost of PhP 58.1 billion or USD 1,211 million USD to PHP $1 :48 PHP BGC and Muntinlupa Mixed Use developments: Lakewood City Cabanatuan Batulao, Woodlands Batangas Pico de Loro, Batangas
57 CBRE Strategic Alliance with Leechiu Property Consultants Source: CBRE Website EFFECTIVE JANUARY 1, 2017
58 Our Insights. Your Success. This document is prepared by Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) for information only and is based on information and representations provided to LPC. While reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, LPC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. LPC shall not be responsible for any losses or liability of any nature arising from or in connection with reliance, in whole or in part, on the contents of this document. Except as may otherwise be expressly indicated herein, LPC does not undertake any obligation to advise any recipient hereof of any changes or updates with respect to the information contained herein. Interested parties should not rely on the statements or representations of fact as contained in this document, and are expected to conduct due diligence and independent verification of the information contained herein. Interested parties are encouraged to consult with their legal, financial, and tax advisers in evaluating the transaction described herein, as this document does not purport to be an exhaustive and/or definitive summary of all commercial, legal, and financial matters which may be material to your decision to proceed (or not to proceed) with the proposed transaction. This document does not constitute, in whole or in part, an offer by LPC or contract between LPC and any recipient hereof.
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