APPENDIX II GALWAY COUNTY HOUSING STRATEGY. Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

Transcription

1 APPENDIX II GALWAY COUNTY HOUSING STRATEGY Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

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3 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy Table of Contents 1. Introduction Methodology Review of Part V The Regional Planning Guidelines for the West Region Housing in Galway: A Demographic and Market Assessment Introduction Population and Housing Growth Current and Future Outlook Housing Demand Introduction Housing Demand Methodology Population and Household Projections Disposable Income Projections House Price Assessment and Projection Household Affordability Housing Supply Housing Permitted and Completed Housing Targets Land Supply National Housing Development Survey Social and Affordable Housing Provision Meeting Social and Affordable Housing Demand Provision of Social Housing under Part V Rental Accommodation Scheme, Leasing Initiatives and Housing Assistance Payment Provision of Social Housing in Partnership with Voluntary Bodies and Housing Cooperatives Casual Vacancies Purchase of New and Second Hand Dwellings Groups Requiring Special Attention Housing Strategy Objectives Key Principles of the Housing Strategy Development Plan Housing Objectives Housing Objectives Strategy Implementation Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan i

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5 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy 1. Introduction This Housing Strategy has been prepared by Future Analytics Consulting on behalf of Galway County Council to meet statutory requirements set out under the Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended), and in particular Part V of said Act. It also addresses relevant provisions contained within the Housing (Miscellaneous Provision) Act, Under Part V of the Act, each planning authority must prepare a Housing Strategy which will cover the period of its Development Plan. Each strategy must have regard to the proper planning and sustainable development of the area and must address the overall supply of housing within the administrative boundary of the Local Authority. Within this, the Planning Authority has a statutory obligation to address needs for social and affordable housing and to ensure that sufficient land is zoned for housing over the period of its plan. 1.1 Methodology The previous County Housing Strategy ( ) was prepared during a period of unprecedented growth in the national property market. The fundamental changes that have taken place in the economy, and in particular, the housing market in intervening years means that that many assumptions underpinning the previous strategy have changed considerably. High levels of market uncertainty and the changing nature of housing demand, including mitigating factors such as income, demographics and credit conditions are key aspects which underline the current housing market and the applied methodology considers these aspects in detail, providing a robust and credible basis for the assessment of future housing need in Galway. This Housing Strategy has been prepared in accordance with national legislation and relevant guidance, with the stated aim of addressing the following: To ensure that the overall future supply of housing in Galway County is sufficient to address planned population growth; To ensure that adequate housing is made available for people on different income levels in the County; To ensure that a mixture of house types and sizes is developed to reasonably match the requirements of different households in the County; To address the need for social housing in County Galway. In line with statutory requirements contained within the Department of Environment, Communities and Local Government guidance Development Plans - Guidelines for Planning Authorities, Galway County Council has an obligation to provide for the equivalent of three years demand beyond the date on which the new plan ceases to have effect and this strategy meets this requirement by including an additional 50% zoning in the housing land requirement. A key intention was to produce a succinct and readable strategy document. To avoid duplication with content in the Galway County Development Plan , this document does not include a chapter setting out the background policy context. Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 1

6 1.2 Review of Part V In June 2011, the Government published a 'Housing Policy Statement' which will function as a framework to address short to medium term issues in the housing market. While reaffirming the Government's commitment to addressing social housing needs, this statement outlined their intention to stand down all existing affordable housing programmes to reflect current affordability conditions. These will be wound up as part of the ongoing review 1 of Part V of the Act. The Government has outlined that a decision is not being taken to end Part V fully, rather that it may be recast to incorporate relevant changes as necessary. This strategy is framed in the context of the Government's current stated position with respect to Part V. Further consideration is given to available social housing delivery mechanisms in Section The Regional Planning Guidelines for the West Region The population projections in this strategy are derived from those set out in the Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs) for the West Region. It should be noted that the RPGs distinguish between population growth in Tuam, as a designated Hub in the National Spatial Strategy , and the remainder of County Galway. In doing so, it identifies a different household formation size of 2.4 for the town up to 2016, comparable with 2.6 for the rest of the County. This strategy rolls forward these rates and differentiates between them, as necessary. 1.4 The Local Government Reform Act 2014 Since the preparation of the last Joint Housing Strategy for Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council, a number of significant changes to local government structures have been announced. The Local Government Reform Act 2014, which became law on 27 th January 2014, introduced a new system of municipal districts, replacing all second- tier town councils effective from 1 st June Having regard to this and the related transfer of town council functions back to county councils, this report has been prepared as a housing strategy for Galway County. 1 On 29th February 2012, the DoECLG issued a circular which stated that pending the outcome of the review in negotiating agreements under section 96, Part V obligations should be discharged through mechanisms that place no additional funding pressures on authorities. 2 Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

7 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy 2. Housing in Galway: A Demographic and Market Assessment 2.1 Introduction A strong understanding of recent activity in the wider housing market as well as that in County Galway is an important starting point in the preparation of a Housing Strategy for the County. Population and housing are intrinsically interlinked, as an increase in population influences housing by creating housing demand. Conversely, the availability of housing influences house prices and the resulting number of people and households who can potentially migrate into an area, affecting total population. These connections between housing and population vary over time and between places, and because of this, where possible, local circumstances as well as prevailing economic and market conditions should be considered when producing a Housing Strategy. This section provides an overview of national, regional and local housing activity in Galway County over the last ten years, and draws on local auctioneer and property market expertise to provide commentary on the current and future outlook for the market. 2.2 Population and Housing Growth Between the population of the State increased from 3,917,203 to 4,581,269 people, a growth rate of almost 17%. Population growth over was typified by trends of strong net- inward migration, which has been tempered considerably in more recent years, by significant net outward migration. The West Region s share of national population has remained relatively stable over this period accounting for approximately 9.6% in 2006 and 9.7% in 2011, however within this, there were notable variations in population change within the region. As Table 2.1 below illustrates, at 9.96%, population growth in Galway County over the period outstripped recorded levels of national growth over the same period and was more than double the 4.30% rate exhibited by Galway City over the same timeframe. Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 3

8 Year State % Change Galway City % Change Galway County % Change ,239,848-72, , ,588, % 75, % 175, % Table 2.1 State and Galway Population Growth Table 2.2 examines population growth in the County relative to all other areas in the West Region between 1996 to It highlights that Galway County demonstrated the highest rate of growth over this period in both real and percentage terms. Area/Region Population 1996 Population 2002 Population 2006 Population 2011 % Change % Change % Change Overall % Change Galway City 57,241 65,832 72,414 75,529 15% 10% 4.30% 32% Galway County 131, , , , % 11.20% 9.70% 33.10% West Region Mayo 111, , , , % 5.40% 5.50% 17.10% Roscommon 51,975 53,774 58,768 64, % 9.30% 9% 23.30% Total 352, , , , % 8.90% 7.50% 26.40% Table 2.2 Population Growth in the West Region Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

9 Galway County Housing Strategy Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy The major settlements in Galway County, namely those identified within the settlement hierarchy of the RPGs and the Galway County Development Plan Core Strategy, experienced varying levels of population growth between Urban, employment- led demand for housing, as well as improved transport infrastructure, played a significant role in the spatial distribution of population growth, which was most pronounced in areas proximate to Galway City, such as Oranmore (growth of 36.6%) and Athenry (growth of 23.2%). The population in the Hub town of Tuam and Loughrea increased by 11.7%, while there were comparatively subtle increases and decreases recorded elsewhere, with the County Town of Ballinasloe experiencing a growth rate of just 0.7%, while Gort experienced modest population decline of - 3.3%. The distribution of population change in Galway County between is outlined in Figure 2.1 below. Figure 2.1 Population Change in Galway County Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 5 5

10 Figure 2.2 State and Galway County Population Structure by Gender and Age Cohort, 2011 The component parts of population growth is a significant indicator of both current and future housing requirements in the County as illustrated in Figure 2.2 above. Notably, when compared with the State, Galway County has a higher percentage of people in all population cohorts aged 45 and over, and significantly less people in the years age groups. High birth rates were a key national trend of the last of census and this was also evident in County Galway, with a recorded increase of 26% in the 0-4 age category. The 2011 Census also provides important information on the nature of existing housing stock in the County. It highlights that Galway County has a very high proportion of detached houses (76.6%) compared with Galway City (21%) and the State (42.3%). Within this, the County has a very small proportion of flats and apartments (2.5%) in comparison to the national average (9.1%). Type of Houses Galway County Galway City State Units % Units % Units % All Households 60,952 27,726 1,654,208 Detached House 46, % 5, % 699, % Semi- detached House 8, % 10, % 456, % Terraced House 2, % 4, % 281, % Flat/Apt in Block 1, % 5, % 149, % Flat or Apartment in converted house/ commercial building % % 27, % Bed- Sit % % 5, % Caravan, Mobile of Temporary Structure % % 4, % Not Stated % % 27, % Table 2.3 Private Households by Type of Private Accommodation, Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

11 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy An assessment of the composition of households in the County highlights that while the traditional house composition structure of husband and wife with children still predominates at 37%, there is a significant amount of one person households in the county (23.1%), as well as lone parents with children (9.3%). Nature of Household Composition % Share Husband and Wife with Children 37.10% One Persons 23.10% Husband and Wife 15.40% Lone Mother with Children 7.80% Cohabiting Couple 3.70% Cohabiting Couple with Children 2.90% Non- Family Containing Related Persons 2.40% Husband and Wife with Children and Other Persons 1.70% Households with Unrelated Persons Only 1.60% Lone Father with Children 1.50% Other 2.80% Table 2.4 Composition of Households in Galway County, 2011 Housing delivery is often considered to be a more immediate reflection of prevailing market conditions within an area an indicator of how the market operates and fluctuates in real time, and this has been particularly evident in the peaks and troughs displayed by the Irish housing market over the last ten years. Overall, from the late 1990s until the economic collapse in 2007, Ireland experienced strong housing demand influenced by population growth, a reduction in household sizes, increased age groups with higher household formation rates, together with net immigration. Additional factors also included an increase in divorce rates, higher incomes and a significant investment in the buy- to- let property market. This is evidenced locally in Galway by the fall in average household size in the County from 3.39 in 1996, to 2.89 in The average household size is projected to fall further to 2.6 in A total of 9,366 housing units were built between 2007 and 2012, with a high proportion of these units having been constructed in the period , fuelling the recorded population growth in the County over this period. Further analysis on housing supply is explored in Section 4. Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 7

12 2.3 Current and Future Outlook A number of significant challenges remain in the national housing market. Latest research from Daft.ie 2 indicates that house prices outside of Dublin are continuing to fall, although the rate of decline is moderating. Positively, there are signs of a general pick- up in activity, if not prices, in the market. Mortgage availability remains a constraining influence. The cost of borrowing, coupled with stringent lending practices such as the requirement for higher up front deposits is inhibiting some first time buyers, but cash sales are predominating in some areas. It is estimated that there are approximately 33,000 properties for sale around the country, down from a much higher rate of 43,000 in March There is a strong tradition of home ownership in Galway County with 81.4% of households owning their own property 3 and it remains to be seen if this trend will sustain into future. The County has a vacancy rate of approximately 19.4% 4 and invariably this will have an impact on local market activity. At 131,319, the average house price in Galway County broadly compares with that of Westmeath, Wexford, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary. Year on year house prices in Galway are down - 4.3%, but average asking prices, in real terms, remain above that of adjoining counties Mayo ( 119,641), Roscommon ( 91,838) and Sligo ( 116,634). In line with national trends, the price of apartments has fallen considerably more than larger houses in the County. The current average asking price for a 1 bed apartment is approximately 46,000 and a 4 bed bungalow approximately 176,000. Local auctioneers in Galway testify to some improvements in the residential sales market in recent months, with uplift in demand for family homes in the County, particularly near Galway City. Credit considerations and in some cases, receivership processes are continuing to inhibit the market, but it is expected to gather pace over the next couple of years as part of the envisaged recovery scenario for the economy. In the longer term, the demographic factors identified above such as the rise in the cumulative birth rate and lower occupancy rates may require a revised approach to housing provision in the County, including a wider assessment of housing mix typologies with respect to dwelling type, size and affordability levels. 2 All referenced figures have been taken from the daft.ie House Price Report Q % rent their property, with social rent accounting for 4.9%. 4 CSO Census Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

13 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy Summary 3.1 Introduction The determination of housing demand over the operational period of the Development Plan is a fundamental cornerstone of the overall Housing Strategy. It is essential that all relevant and available data is considered and applied where appropriate. The demand side model draws on key research information from the Department of the Environment, Communities and Local Government (DoECLG), the Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) to reflect the latest position with respect to the housing market and the document outputs are the product of considered scenario testing. 3.2 Housing Demand Methodology The following key steps have been taken to determine the housing demand for County Galway up to and including the plan period of 2015 to 2021, and beyond. Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 9

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15 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy 3.3 Population and Household Projections The starting point in any assessment of demand for housing over the Development Plan period is projected population growth for this period. In accordance with the RPG population forecasts, the population of the County is projected to increase by 13,160 people between It should be noted that the RPGs distinguish between population growth in Tuam, as an identified Hub in the National Spatial Strategy , and the remainder of the County. The population of Tuam is forecast to increase by 2,080 persons over the same timeframe. The 2011 Census results indicate that Galway has a population to household ratio of 2.8. In line with national trends, household size in the County has declined in recent decades and it is envisaged that this trend will continue in the foreseeable future. The RPGs project an occupancy rate of 2.4 for Tuam and 2.6 for the remainder of the County over the period to 2016, and in compliance with this, the Housing Strategy rolls these ratios forward over the subsequent period to Through this process, the strategy is consistent with the Regional Planning Guidelines. By applying the relevant household size to projected population increases, it is possible to forecast required household numbers to As summarised in Table 3.1 below, the application of an occupancy rate of 2.4 for Tuam and 2.6 for the remainder of the County, results in a cumulative identified requirement of 5,128 units for Galway County. Within this, it is estimated that the number of households in Tuam will increase. Area Projected Population Occupancy Rate Identified Units Tuam 2, Rest of Galway County 11, ,261 County Total 13,160-5,128 Table 3.1 Identified Housing Requirement, County Galway As outlined in Section 2, Galway County has a recorded residential vacancy rate of 19.4% and it is considered reasonable that this will absorb some level of future demand. When an applicable settlement- based adjustment is applied, the vacancy amended requirement for the period is reduced to 4,133 units, or the equivalent of 689 units per annum. 3.4 Disposable Income Projections Disposable income is the amount of income, after tax is deducted, that is available for spending and saving. It functions as an important measure of housing affordability 6 in an area i.e. the ability of a household to purchase their own home. Current estimates of household disposal income are derived from the CSO Household Budget Survey (2012). This resource provides a snapshot of national 5 Comprising of 2,627 persons from the RPG allocation and 10,533 persons from the RPG allocation. 6 Section 93 of the Planning and Development Act 2000, defines 'affordability' as "a person who is in need of accommodation and whose income would not be adequate to meet the payments of a mortgage for the purchase of a house to meet his or her accommodation needs because the payments calculated over the course of a year would exceed 35% of that person's annual income net of income tax and pay related social insurance..." Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 11

16 household budgets, which have to be adjusted for county- level analysis. A deflator 7 of has been extracted from the CSO report on County Incomes and Regional GDP and applied for such purposes. Table 3.2 below illustrates the outputs of this exercise, with findings disaggregated into ten income segments or 'deciles' and applied to the proportion of households in the County within each decile. It indicates that after taxes, about one third 9 of households in the County have an average annual disposable income of 15,567, or the equivalent of per week. 7 The measure of price inflation/deflation in an area, relative to the national measure at that time. 8 Published April st, 2nd and 3rd Deciles 12 Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 12

17 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy Income Range Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) ( ) ( ) Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) ( ) ( ) Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) ( ) ( ) Percentage Change from to Assumed Annual Percentage Income Increase from 2005 to 2010 Adjusted Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) ( ) (2011) Percentage of Households in Each Category (State) Average Annual Disposable Income (State) ( ) (2011) Galway County Deflator Average Annual Disposable Income (Galway) ( ) (2011) Number of Households in Galway (2011) 1st Decile % 3.76% % 10, , ,017 2nd Decile % 4.60% % 16, , ,392 3rd Decile % 4.02% % 23, , ,749 4th Decile % 2.49% % 29, , ,822 5th Decile % 1.31% % 35, , ,907 6th Decile % 0.59% % 41, , ,798 7th Decile % 0.45% % 50, , ,949 8th Decile , , % 0.28% 1, % 61, , ,810 9th Decile , , % 0.73% 1, % 77, , ,931 10th Decile 1, , , % 0.51% 2, % 119, , ,271 Total % 60,644 Table 3.2 Estimated Distributions of Household Disposable Incomes for County Galway, 2011 To inform the forward projection of future affordability in Galway, the baseline figures are then inflated annually using forecasted average disposable household income growth rates from the Economic and Social and Research Institute (ESRI). The latest projections from the Medium Term Review set out a scenario- based approach to future growth. Based on the current economic outlook, a recovery- based scenario average of 3.6% per annum has been applied over the plan period, which for reference, compares with an average growth rate figure of 6% contained within the previous Housing Strategy. The key outputs of this are shown in Table 3.3 and Table 3.4 below, which highlights a notable difference in average disposable incomes across the County for the 10 decile income ranges for each of the projected years. 10 Published July Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 13

18 Range Percentage of Households in Each Category Average Annual Disposable Income - Galway County ( ) st Decile 11.57% 9,884 10,240 10,609 10,991 11,387 11,796 12,221 12,661 13,117 13,589 14,078 14,585 15,110 2nd Decile 10.54% 15,876 16,448 17,040 17,653 18,289 18,947 19,629 20,336 21,068 21,826 22,612 23,426 24,269 3rd Decile 9.48% 22,622 23,436 24,280 25,154 26,059 26,997 27,969 28,976 30,019 31,100 32,220 33,379 34,581 4th Decile 9.60% 28,385 29,406 30,465 31,562 32,698 33,875 35,095 36,358 37,667 39,023 40,428 41,883 43,391 5th Decile 9.74% 34,200 35,431 36,707 38,028 39,397 40,816 42,285 43,807 45,384 47,018 48,711 50,464 52,281 6th Decile 9.56% 40,709 42,174 43,693 45,265 46,895 48,583 50,332 52,144 54,021 55,966 57,981 60,068 62,231 7th Decile 9.81% 49,234 51,006 52,842 54,745 56,715 58,757 60,873 63,064 65,334 67,686 70,123 72,647 75,263 8th Decile 9.58% 59,861 62,016 64,249 66,562 68,958 71,441 74,013 76,677 79,437 82,297 85,260 88,329 91,509 9th Decile 9.78% 74,802 77,495 80,285 83,175 86,170 89,272 92,486 95,815 99, , , , ,349 10th Decile 10.34% 116, , , , , , , , , , , , , % Table 3.3 Average Annual Disposable Income for County Galway, Range Percentage of Households in Each Category Average Monthly Disposable Income - Galway County ( ) st Decile 11.57% ,018 1,055 1,093 1,132 1,173 1,215 1,259 2nd Decile 10.54% 1,323 1,371 1,420 1,471 1,524 1,579 1,636 1,695 1,756 1,819 1,884 1,952 2,022 3rd Decile 9.48% 1,885 1,953 2,023 2,096 2,172 2,250 2,331 2,415 2,502 2,592 2,685 2,782 2,882 4th Decile 9.60% 2,365 2,451 2,539 2,630 2,725 2,823 2,925 3,030 3,139 3,252 3,369 3,490 3,616 5th Decile 9.74% 2,850 2,953 3,059 3,169 3,283 3,401 3,524 3,651 3,782 3,918 4,059 4,205 4,357 6th Decile 9.56% 3,392 3,515 3,641 3,772 3,908 4,049 4,194 4,345 4,502 4,664 4,832 5,006 5,186 7th Decile 9.81% 4,103 4,251 4,404 4,562 4,726 4,896 5,073 5,255 5,445 5,641 5,844 6,054 6,272 8th Decile 9.58% 4,988 5,168 5,354 5,547 5,747 5,953 6,168 6,390 6,620 6,858 7,105 7,361 7,626 9th Decile 9.78% 6,234 6,458 6,690 6,931 7,181 7,439 7,707 7,985 8,272 8,570 8,878 9,198 9,529 10th Decile 10.34% 9,670 10,018 10,379 10,752 11,139 11,540 11,956 12,386 12,832 13,294 13,772 14,268 14, % Table 3.4 Average Monthly Disposable Income in County Galway, Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

19 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy 3.5 House Price Assessment and Projection Section 2 of this strategy sets out in detail background information on house price trends in the current market. As part of the price assessment and projection for County Galway, it is important to determine, generally, current house price sales and how they may fluctuate over the plan period. Table 3.5 below outlines the projected calculated house prices bands for County Galway from This table has been calculated using the CSO Residential Property Price Index (July 2013) and reflects a nominal 1% increase in house prices in 2015 and 2016 rising to a 4% increase between Average Price Increase/ Decrease 1st Band - not exceeding X1 2nd Band - X1- X2 3rd Band - X2- X3 4th Band - X3- X4 5th Band - X4- X5 6th Band - X5- X6 7th Band - X6- X7 8th Band - exceeding X , , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 125, , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 111, , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 96,892 96, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 85,846 85, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 85,846 85, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 85,846 85, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 86,705 86, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 87,572 87, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 89,323 89, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 91,556 91, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 94,303 94, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 97,604 97, , , , , , , , , , , , , % 101, , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 105, , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 109, , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 114, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,608 % of Galway Housing Units within each Band based on 2.50% 13.50% 15.50% 17.50% 14.50% 10.50% 11.50% 14.50% Whole Country Table 3.5 Affordability Analysis and Associated Affordable Housing Demand The projections for household income to 2021 are applied to the DoECLG Model Housing Strategy annuity formula to determine the maximum affordable house price for each of the ten disposable income decile ranges. The key variables used in the annuity formula include an affordability threshold of a maximum of 35% expenditure of household income on mortgage costs, a loan to value ratio of 0.80, an annual interest rate (APR) of 3.95%, and a loan term of 25 years. 15 Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 15

20 Table 3.6 summarises the outputs from the annuity calculation, detailing the approximate affordable house prices in County Galway to Range Percentage of Households in Each Category Approximate Affordable House Price - Galway County st Decile 11.57% 68,632 71,102 73,662 76,314 79,061 81,907 84,856 87,911 91,076 94,354 97, , ,916 2nd Decile 10.54% 110, , , , , , , , , , , , ,512 3rd Decile 9.48% 157, , , , , , , , , , , , ,110 4th Decile 9.60% 197, , , , , , , , , , , , ,280 5th Decile 9.74% 237, , , , , , , , , , , , ,008 6th Decile 9.56% 282, , , , , , , , , , , , ,092 7th Decile 9.81% 341, , , , , , , , , , , , ,578 8th Decile 9.58% 415, , , , , , , , , , , , ,382 9th Decile 9.78% 519, , , , , , , , , , , , ,970 10th Decile 10.34% 805, , , , , , ,153 1,032,015 1,069,167 1,107,657 1,147,533 1,188,844 1,231, % Table 3.6 Approximate Affordable Housing Prices in County Galway, Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

21 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy Table 3.7 below provides a breakdown of the total additional housing units required over the period of based on the ten decile range. This analysis is based on the RPG targets for County Galway up to year Income Range Percentage of Households in Each Category Total Additional Houses - Galway County / st Decile 11.57% nd Decile 10.54% rd Decile 9.48% th Decile 9.60% th Decile 9.74% th Decile 9.56% th Decile 9.81% th Decile 9.58% th Decile 9.78% th Decile 10.34% % Table 3.7 Required Additional Households in County Galway, Household Affordability An essential requirement of this Housing Strategy is to identify as accurately as possible the number of households who can be classified as having an affordability problem over the period , so as to adequately inform the necessary provision of these units. Table 3.8 below sets out in detail the determination of the anticipated social housing need and associated shortfall for Galway County Council. This determination is based on the number of households required, housing affordability by each decile, household band position, house prices bands (upper value), number of houses required within each band, and the percentage and number of housing units projected to be provided within each band. 17 Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 17

22 Taking 2021 as an illustrative year, there are 689 households required, 102 of which are required within the 1st decile that has an upper price value of 101,508 and based on DoECLG House Price Statistics System, it is expected that only 17 housing units will be provided within this band. Therefore, there will be a housing shortage in this band of 85 units and this equates to 12.31% of the overall total household requirement. Table 3.8 Calculation of Anticipated Social and Affordable Housing Need, County Galway Year Range No. of Households Required Running Total Affordability by each Decile Household Band Position House Prices Bands - Upper Value No. of Houses Required within each Band % of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band Housing Shortfall - i.e. No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required 2015/ st Decile ,061 1st Band 87, % % 2nd Decile ,985 2nd & 3rd Bands 145, % rd Decile ,939 4th & 5th Bands 204, % th Decile ,035 6th Band 233, % th Decile ,551 7th Band 291, % th Decile ,610 7th Decile ,798 8th Decile ,803 8th Band None % 100 9th Decile ,309 10th Decile , % Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

23 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy Year Range No. of Households Required Running Total Affordability by each Decile Household Band Position House Prices Bands - Upper Value No. of Houses Required within each Band % of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band Housing Shortfall - i.e. No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required st Decile ,907 1st Band 89, % % 2nd Decile ,556 2nd & 3rd Bands 148, % rd Decile ,453 4th & 5th Bands 208, % th Decile ,208 6th Band 238, % th Decile ,399 7th Band 297, % th Decile ,332 7th Decile ,974 8th Decile ,040 9th Decile ,849 10th Decile , % 689 1st Decile ,856 1st Band 91, % % 2nd Decile ,292 2nd & 3rd Bands 152, % rd Decile ,201 4th & 5th Bands 213, % th Decile ,676 6th Band 244, % th Decile ,601 7th Band 305, % th Decile ,476 7th Decile ,661 8th Decile ,898 9th Decile ,163 10th Decile ,153 8th Band None % th Band None % % Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 19

24 Year Range No. of Households Required Running Total Affordability by each Decile Household Band Position House Prices Bands - Upper Value No. of Houses Required within each Band % of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band Housing Shortfall - i.e. No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required st Decile ,911 1st Band 94, % % 2nd Decile ,199 2nd & 3rd Bands 157, % rd Decile ,193 4th & 5th Bands 220, % th Decile ,448 5th Decile ,171 6th Decile ,057 7th Decile ,877 8th Decile ,398 9th Decile ,281 10th Decile ,032, % 689 1st Decile ,076 1st Band 97, % % 2nd Decile ,282 2nd & 3rd Bands 162, % rd Decile ,436 4th & 5th Bands 227, % th Decile ,536 5th Decile ,121 6th Decile ,091 7th Decile ,641 8th Decile ,564 9th Decile ,231 10th Decile ,069,167 6th& 7th Bands 8th Band 8th Band 314, % % % 689 None None % 6th& 7th Bands 325, % Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

25 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy Year Range No. of Households Required Running Total Affordability by each Decile Household Band Position House Prices Bands - Upper Value No. of Houses Required within each Band % of Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band No. Housing Units Projected to be Provided within each Band Housing Shortfall - i.e. No. of Households Meeting Affordability Criteria Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required st Decile ,354 1st Band 101, % % 2nd Decile ,548 2nd & 3rd Bands 169, % rd Decile ,939 4th & 5th Bands 236, % th Decile ,951 5th Decile ,465 6th Decile ,595 7th Decile ,972 8th Decile ,421 9th Decile ,043 10th Decile ,107,657 6th& 7th Bands 338, % th Band 14.50% % 689 None Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 21

26 A summary of total social need for County Galway is set out in Table 3.9 below, which evidences that there is an anticipated per annum social housing shortfall, or requirement, of between 12.25% and 12.75% over the period the plan period. There is a requirement to deliver 513 social housing units between 2015 and 2021, which equates to an anticipated average shortfall of 12.41%. 2015/ Total 2015/ 2016 to 2021 New Household Formations ,133 Social and Affordable Housing Requirement Housing Shortfall as a % of Total Households Required 12.75% 12.51% 12.35% 12.27% 12.25% 12.31% 12.41% Table 3.9 Summary of Anticipated Social and Affordable Housing Need in County Galway, Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

27 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy 4 Housing Supply This section of the strategy examines past and projected future housing supply, by providing analysis on recent house completions and the types of units developed, the identified housing target for the development plan period and the amount of zoned land available for residential development. 4.1 Housing Permitted and Completed Between 2006 and 2012 there were a total of 13,878 housing units completed in County Galway. Table 4.1 below compares predicted demand arising from the County's previous Housing Strategies with actual completion figures, obtained from the DoECLG. While there was a significant level of over performance in terms of housing delivery in the period , the data also illustrates a significant fall in housing completion rates in more recent years, which fell from a peak of 4,512 units in 2006 to 467 units in The outstripping of predicted demand by actual supply between 2002 and 2008 reflects the national trend of accelerated housing output during this period. Predicted Housing Demand Actual Units Completed % Over/Under Delivery ,353 2,265 67% ,353 3, % ,353 3, % ,353 3, % ,353 4, % ,353 3, % ,353 2, % ,254 1, % , % , % , % Table 4.1 Housing Demand and Actual Supply, Table 4.2 below provides a breakdown of completed units by type over the period % of total completions over that 8 year time period were on planned larger schemes, 54.9% Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 23

28 were individual houses, while approximately 7.55% were apartments. The table also highlights the drop- off in apartment development relative to total completions in recent years Individual House[1] 1,761 2,111 1,658 1,392 1, Scheme House[2] 1,474 2,068 1, Apartment Total 3,537 4,512 3,849 2,332 1, Table 4.2 Housing Completions by Type The above activity is also underlined through the examination of housing units granted planning permission over the period , where the total number of units permitted dropped significantly. Table 4.3 further evidences the shift in trends away from speculative development, and in particular, flat/apartment housing schemes, since 2007/ Status Houses (Incl. Multi- Development & One- offs) Granted PP No. Units Granted PP No. Units Granted PP No. Units Granted PP No. Units Granted PP No. Units Granted PP No. Units 1,778 3,602 1,146 1, , Flats/Apts Total 1,841 3,980 1,185 2, , Annual % Increase/Decrease % % % % % - Cumulative Amount % % % % % % - Table 4.3 Annual Planning Permissions Granted in County Galway, Housing Targets The adjusted RPG population targets establish a housing target for County Galway of approximately 4,133 units between 2015 and Galway County Council has an obligation to ensure that sufficient zoned residential land is available throughout the lifetime of the Development Plan and beyond to meet anticipated needs and allow for an element of choice in the market. DoECLG guidance Development Plans Guidelines for Planning Authorities formalises this requirement, by stipulating that enough land should be made available to meet residential needs for a 9 year period 11. It is envisaged that the majority of new residential development will take place in existing towns and village settlements in Galway County and as such, the relevant housing land requirements should be 11 6 year plan period plus an additional 50%. 24 Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan

29 Appendix II // Galway County Housing Strategy guided by this principle. It is estimated that approximately 3,189 units will be delivered in the main settlements of Galway County over the plan period, with the remaining 949 units dispersed throughout rural settlements. The RPGs set out a scenario based approach to development density figures across the County over the period to For the purposes of calculating the future land requirement to deliver on planned targets in town and village settlements, a variable approach consisting of a range of between 9 and 20 units per hectare has been applied to mirror localised circumstances. This reflects historical rates of delivery in different areas, with towns such as Tuam and Ballinasloe, Loughrea, Oranmore, Athenry and Gort naturally exhibiting higher densities than village settlements such as Clifden Kinvara and Spiddal. On this basis it is estimated that approximately 196 hectares of zoned land for residential use will be required over the period Table 4.4 below summarises this, including the statutory additional 50% requirement to Catagory Galway County Applicable Densities per Hectare 9-20 Housing Units Required ,133 Housing Land Requirement (ha) 196 Housing Land Requirement (ha) (Based on 150% Zoning) 295 Table 4.4 Summary of Housing Land Requirements Land Supply There is currently approximately 571 hectares of undeveloped land zoned purely for residential development in County Galway. This spatial distribution of this land follows the County s settlement hierarchy, the broad allocation of which is set out in Table 4.5 below. Settlement Zoned Land (Ha) Hub Town - Tuam County Town Ballinasloe Key Towns (Population >1500) Lower Tier Towns/ Villages (Population <1500) Total Table 4.5 Distribution of Residentially Zoned Land in County Galway Excludes mixed use zonings. Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan 25

30 Having regard to the identified housing land requirement, and excluding rural settlements and the countryside, there is a residual surplus of zoned lands in the County of approximately 276 hectares. 4.4 National Housing Development Survey 2013 The National Housing Development Survey, tracking the extent and condition of unfinished housing developments since 2010, was published in 2013 by the DoECLG and the Housing Agency. The study indicated that the combined Cork and Dublin authorities have the largest numerical levels of vacant housing. At 4.8 units, Galway County ranked among the lowest counties nationally for vacant units per 1000 households. The units of most relevance to this strategy are those which are fully developed but vacant, as these units can reasonably be expected to contribute to overall housing supply in the County. Of those estates surveyed and confirmed as complete, a total of 295 units were identified as vacant. Each unfinished residential development has distinct characteristics, context and mitigating issues, and responses must therefore be tailored to these circumstances. Galway County Council is positively engaging with all relevant parties to address related matters and while it is difficult to estimate the future outcomes of ongoing work at this early stage, it is foreseen that solutions may contribute positively to future housing supply in the County in the medium to long term. 4.5 Social and Affordable Housing Provision In accordance with Section 9 of the Housing Act 1988, Housing Authorities are required to undertake an assessment of housing need in their administrative area. The assessment itself includes a broad range of categories including the homeless, travellers, those in overcrowded or involuntary accommodation, and people with disabilities. An assessment carried out by Galway County Council in May 2013 identified a net housing need of 2,259 units. Within this, the largest category was those dependent upon Rent Supplement (63%), followed by those with particular household circumstances (18%). Table 4.6 below draws together a summary of social and affordable housing provided in Galway County from , based on the DoECLG s Database for Direct Housing Statistics, A per annum average of 235 units were delivered over this period. (1) Completions and Acquisitions (2) Voluntary and Co- operative Housing (3) Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS) (4) Houses Available for Rent from Existing Stock (5) Total Social Rented Accommodation (6) Affordable Housing Total Social and Affordable Housing Provision (i.e. 5+6) Table 4.6 Social and Affordable Housing Provision in Galway County Plean Forbartha Chontae na Gaillimhe // Galway County Development Plan