Market Analysis and TOD Locations

Transcription

1 Market Analysis and TOD Locations June 5, 2017 FINAL DRAFT Ogdenonboard.com Strong Connections, Strong Neighborhoods

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 Market Strength 3 Market Demand 4 Market Supply 5 Introduction 7 Demographic and Market Conditions 12 Existing Demographics 12 Real Estate Market Conditions 17 Market Strength 28 Forecasted Demand/Absorption 34 Residential 39 Employment 41 Retail/Commercial 43 TOD Locations 47 Transit Orientation 51 TOD Typologies 58 Development Prototypes 59 Parking 64 Preliminary Opportunity Areas 65 Case Studies 69 Appendix 74 Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents key findings from the market analysis and highlights opportunities for the Ogden BRT corridor based on observed supply and demand characteristics and real estate trends. While the analysis addresses the corridor in its entirety, the corridor is greatly impacted by the two major employment clusters the Downtown subdistrict and the WSU/Hospital subdistrict. MARKET STRENGTH Based on development trends and socioeconomic, economic, and real estate characteristics, the corridor can be considered an EMERGING market, and may be ideally suited for catalytic investments to enhance local market strength. While most of the corridor appears to lack immediate market support for TOD (rents and vacancy rates for the corridor are relatively weak), more recent development has seen higher rents and fast absorption rates and may be indicative of greater market support. The following information identifies the strength of the market in each corridor subdistrict and describes the reasoning behind each categorization. Downtown: STRONG Market Downtown is a mixture of low-income households, smaller households, renters, and more elderly householders. The concentration of affordable housing projects is particularly apparent in Downtown s lower median income and high poverty level. Both population and employment growth in the corridor is projected to be highest within the Downtown subdistrict. Downtown has the highest square footage of multifamily, office, and retail land uses, and is the only subdistrict where new development has occurred (mostly multifamily). Existing development across all land uses have low vacancies and are generally achieving the highest asking rents in the corridor (despite the lower income level, perhaps reflecting the apparent attraction of downtown). East Central: EMERGING Market East Central is a young, diverse population, with low projected employment growth and moderate residential growth, primarily due to the presence of single-family residential in much of the subdistrict. Multifamily, office, and retail inventory is one of the lowest in the corridor so available rents are limited, but vacancies are very low. Harrison Blvd.: LIMITED Market Residents of Harrison Boulevard are generally a mixture of young and senior populations, with relatively low projected employment growth and moderate residential growth. Like East Central, multifamily, office, and retail inventory is very low, so rents are limited. Vacancies in multifamily, office, and retail are also high. Development in the Harrison Boulevard subdistrict is limited to the west side of Harrison due to the significant presence of single-family residential development on the east. New development is therefore likely to be limited to the west. WSU/Hospital: EMERGING/STRONG Market The WSU/Hospital subdistrict is predominantly institutional and residential, with some commercial development. Resident income is high and both residential and employment growth is high (although less than downtown). While multifamily unit inventory is low, vacancies are low and niche multifamily properties (senior and student housing) command the highest rents on the corridor. For office, rents are low, but vacancy is also low, and a Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 3

4 small cluster of medical-related office development has emerged near the hospital. For retail, inventory is limited, but existing development has almost zero vacancy and the highest asking rents in the corridor. Table 1. Feasibility by Market Strength The figure above provides an overview of the development types Ogden might expect in each of the corridor subdistricts based on the aforementioned market strength. These assumptions are based on market research, LCG expertise, and other information as reported in this analysis. However, it is important to note that this is merely a guideline, and certain market interventions may drastically alter development feasibility (such as significant financial incentives, niche development types, public-private partnerships, etc.). MARKET DEMAND Based on employment and population projections from WFRC, the following table provides an overview of the estimated growth projections and corresponding residential and commercial development demand in the corridor. Half-Mile Corridor Growth Projections, est. Est Annual Growth Rate 2027 est est. 10-year Growth Total 20-year Growth Total Population 29, % 31,350 33,000 1,500 3,150 Households 11, % 12,300 13,600 1,150 2,450 Approximate Residential Unit Demand 1,100 2,400 Employment 20, % 23,000 26,000 2,600 5,600 Approximate Commercial & Employment Space Demand (sq. ft.) 790,000 1,680,000 Source: ESRI, WFRC and Leland Consulting Group Note: commercial and employment space demand is based on 300 square feet per employee LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS Future office development is unlikely to occur outside of downtown as decreasing square footage needs per employee and the consolidation of utility, finance, and government uses are likely to result in high vacancies. However, opportunities for build-to-suit office and medical-related office may arise elsewhere in the corridor, especially near the hospital, although land supply is limited. While low vacancy rates suggest a very tight multifamily market, the combination of stagnant rents and low household incomes will limit the feasibility of new market-rate multifamily development. However, recent downtown development has shown higher rents are possible and may help catalyze more development. Housing units in the corridor are predominately rentals. Outside of downtown Ogden, rental units mainly consist of single-family and apartments. The lower ownership rate can be attributed in part to the lower income level throughout the corridor. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 4

5 Surrounding towns and cities, such as West Haven, have experienced significant growth especially from increased multifamily development. These areas have the vacant land to build new housing units on greenfield sites, which is financially more favorable than the higher cost of redevelopment in most of the corridor. However, higher-density (and therefore higher value) developments are more likely in more urban walkable environments with access to transit, such as Downtown Ogden. Very little new retail has been built on the corridor, and this is unlikely to change going forward given the rise of ecommerce and the large supply of existing retail. New retail will likely be neighborhoodserving and limited to grocery, drinking, dining, and entertainment, especially as household growth occurs. Retail in the corridor is currently highly productive across all retail categories (where sales are significantly higher than estimated household demand) except grocery, which shows significant sales leakage for the area. MARKET SUPPLY TOD ORIENTATION For the purposes of better capturing urban character in a composite measure, we assessed each subdistrict against a set of five criteria (the five P s ) to determine each subdistrict s current readiness for transit-oriented development. 1 Doing so helps to identify priority or target station areas that could potentially accommodate transit-oriented development in the near-term versus the mid- and long-term. Figure 1. Subdistrict 5 "P's" Scores Downtown currently has the most supportive characteristics, followed by the WSU/Hospital, East Central, and, lastly, Harrison Boulevard subdistricts. TOD OPPORTUNITIES Based on available land supply (including underutilized properties) and existing Redevelopment Agency project areas, most opportunities for new construction or redevelopment are currently located in downtown or near WSU. Key findings include: Downtown and East Central are anticipated to experience high population growth rates, which will drive demand for additional housing development particularly multifamily. 1 (1) People, or activity, (2) place or proximity, (3) physical form, (4) parks, or access to open space and recreation, and (5) pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 5

6 WSU anticipates student demand for approximately 500 additional housing units in the next 10 years (not including students currently living in substandard private housing). Efforts to recruit more out-ofstate and international students would further increase demand for nearby student housing. Redevelopment Agency projects areas (most of which are located downtown) offer important tax incentives to developers for projects that may not otherwise be financial feasible. Three proposed projects areas are currently in development two located downtown and one in East Central. Several planned public/private projects are likely to help build momentum in the market, especially downtown, helping to provide the foundation for more significant and long-term development of the area west of downtown (Union Station and the railyards). Near WSU, student housing projects on vacant and underutilized land will improve the physical form and activity in the area, increasing the chance of community-serving retail such as restaurants, cafés, coffee shops, and grocery stores. However, zoning must first be addressed to allow for more than three unrelated residents and higher density development. TOD has been known to achieve rent premiums of between five to 20 percent above the market average for residential development, and 10 to 15 percent for commercial development, which would help mitigate development feasibility gaps in the corridor. However, zoning changes should be considered to direct higher density development to the corridor. PRELIMINARY OPPORTUNITY AREAS Opportunities generally lie at either end of the corridor, in Downtown and near/in Weber State University. Few opportunities are present along Harrison as institutional (school) and single-family residential development lines the road to the east. There are limited opportunity areas immediately adjacent to the BRT alignment, but significantly more within a two-block radius, especially downtown. In the Downtown subdistrict, many sites have already been identified by the Ogden City Redevelopment Agency, such as the Continental Bakery factory currently the subject of a proposed redevelopment area. Many more sites are publicly-owned (for example, by UTA, Ogden City, etc.), which allows for greater flexibility and other development incentives. Excluded from the opportunity site map is the land to the west of Wall Avenue, currently owned by Union Pacific Railroad, which presents tremendous growth potential for downtown Ogden. In East Central, the primary opportunity area is the Rite Aid block currently the subject of a proposed redevelopment area (Gramercy). Opportunities are limited to the east due to limited land supply and the presence of single-family neighborhoods. Opportunities in the East Central and Harrison subdistricts are likely to be limited to missing middle housing and small commercial rehab projects (including townhomes, multiplexes, and cottage housing). In the Harrison Boulevard subdistrict, the only opportunity area is likely the strip mall site between 31 st and 32 nd Street and the land behind it. As noted already, development in the near- and medium-term would be very difficult to the east of Harrison. Some smaller commercial development may experience rehabilitation projects, but land supply is limited for significant new development. In the WSU/Hospital subdistrict, significant tracts of vacant land mean that opportunity sites are prevalent. However, most of these are located Weber State University s campus and were identified in their recent Campus Master Plan which identified several locations for new development. Some additional tracts were identified to the west of Harrison which would be open to private development, likely neighborhood-oriented commercial, medical-related office and/or student housing. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 6

7 INTRODUCTION The Ogden/Weber State University Transit Project Study (2015) identified a Locally Preferred Alternative (LPA) for Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) 2 connecting the Ogden Intermodal Transit Center and Downtown Ogden with Weber State University. To support transit-oriented development (TOD) along the corridor in which BRT has been identified, the Ogden Onboard Study is examining the BRT Corridor for future TOD opportunities, that include: Preserving a mix of equitable housing; Enhancing access to essential services; Creating well-designed and welcoming stops and station areas; and Providing improved active transportation connections and greater connectivity to the regional transit system. PURPOSE This document provides a baseline assessment of real estate, demographic, and other economic conditions affecting the broader region and the BRT corridor study area. Based on observed supply and demand characteristics and real estate trends, this analysis provides findings and highlights opportunities for the Ogden BRT corridor. The overarching goal of the market analysis is to locate areas on the corridor with the best potential for transitoriented development. The market analysis includes the following sections (in order): Demographics and market conditions, which helps to categorize the strength of the market based on the characteristics of residents and employees and the real estate market at both the local and regional level. Existing and forecasted market demand, which provides employment and population projections, estimated absorption rates for residential, retail, and office development, and a discussion of major trends affecting all three major real estate categories. TOD locations, which includes a discussion of land supply (developable land) and transit supportiveness throughout the corridor. TOD typologies, which describes suitable development prototypes and character for the transit corridor, as well as a discussion of how parking relates to both TOD and future development. Opportunity site programming, which identifies preliminary areas of focus for potential future TOD in later project tasks. Case studies, which outlines how BRT has impacted economic development in other transit corridors. 2 Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a high-quality bus-based transit system that delivers fast, comfortable, and cost-effective services at metro-level capacities. It does this through the provision of dedicated lanes, with busways and iconic stations. Because BRT contains features similar to a light rail or metro system, it is much more reliable, convenient and faster than regular bus services. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 7

8 WHAT IS TOD? According to the Center for Transit Oriented Development (CTOD), TOD is a type of community development that typically includes (1) a mixture of housing, office, retail and/or other commercial development and amenities, (2) integrated into a walkable neighborhood and (3) is located close to quality public transportation. Some of the benefits of TOD include: Reduced household driving and thus lowered regional congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, Walkable communities that accommodate more healthy and active lifestyles, Increased transit ridership and fare revenue, Potential for added value created through increased and/or sustained property values where transit investments have occurred, Improved access to jobs and economic opportunity for all, Expanded housing choice to meet increasing demand in a more efficient and sustainable development pattern; and Expanded mobility choices that reduce dependence on the automobile, reduce transportation costs and free up household income for other purposes. TOD POTENTIAL The basic framework for assessing TOD potential used in this market analysis is as follows. Market dynamics/market strength (real estate demand factors), combined with each station area s transit orientation (existing character and qualities) and existing land/building supply (real estate supply factors), result in an estimate of TOD potential. Each of these terms (e.g., transit orientation ) is described below in its own section. Figure 2. Components of TOD Potential Market Dynamics/ Market Strength Transit Orientation (Five P s) Existing Supply of Buildings and Land TOD Potential Source: Transit-Oriented Development Strategic Plan, Metro (Portland); Leland Consulting Group. The Five P s that make up an area s transit orientation are: (1) people, or activity, (2) place or proximity, (3) physical form, (4) parks, or access to open space and recreation, and (5) pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. The market analysis explores each of these variables within the context of the BRT corridor to identify possible locations for TOD, then characterizes the scale and character of the development that is possible at those locations. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 8

9 STUDY AREA Figure 3. Regional Locator Map Source: UTA, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group The following map shows the BRT corridor study area, defined as a half-mile from the BRT alignment. For this report, the corridor was segmented into four distinct subdistricts based on several factors, including: Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 9

10 predominant land use, neighborhood character, and prior plans and studies, among other factors. Note that all references to BRT Stations in this report refer to proposed locations along the corridor. Figure 4. BRT Study Area Source: UTA, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 10

11 MARKET AREA Figure 5. Ogden City Market Area To understand competitive supply and likely demand forces affecting development potential in the study area, we look beyond the borders of the immediate study area to consider broader geographies likely to directly influence market performance for relevant land use categories. For this larger geographical area, we consider a 10-minute drivetime from the corridor. For neighborhood-scale retail, the market area generally encompasses likely customers, whose spending power fuels a significant majority of sales in future shops and eateries. Here, the 10-minute drive-time from the corridor represents the average time a customer will travel to shop, eat, and recreate. For regional retail (not typically found in downtown), the drive-time would be significantly longer. Source: UTA, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group For residential, in contrast to retail, most prospective homebuyers and renters will not already live in the market area. Instead, we assume that the study area will capture some portion of the forecasted growth in the market area by competing with other projects in that area. Consumers (buyers and renters) who would consider the study area based on family, lifestyle and employment considerations would presumably also consider other nearby developments. For office and employment, the market area is based on the proximity to the current and desired workforce, executive s residences, desirable community amenities, and access to similar and complementary businesses. As with residential, the market area definition for office is more competition-based than customer-based. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 11

12 DEMOGRAPHIC AND MARKET CONDITIONS EXISTING DEMOGRAPHICS The following demographics summary table provides the following key findings: While the population is relatively evenly distributed throughout the corridor, more than half of the corridor s jobs are located Downtown, and one-third in the WSU/Hospital subdistrict. Growth in the corridor has been slower than the wider region, although the growth rate for Downtown households is the highest of all comparison areas, suggesting it has attracted significant regional growth. Household sizes are smaller than the regional average, particularly Downtown, which is typical of a more urban environment. Household income levels are highest in the southern portion of the corridor, but per capita income levels are more consistent with the wider region understandable given the smaller household sizes (i.e., greater proportion of one- and two-person households). A significantly greater proportion of households than the wider region throughout the 1/2-mile study area are below the poverty level, particularly within the Downtown subdistrict. The proportion of the population of Hispanic origin is over double that of the region, with one in every two downtown residents of Hispanic origin, and two in every five in East Central. Table 2. Demographic Summary Table, 2017 Downtown Subdistrict East Central Subdistrict Harrison Blvd. Subdistrict WSU / Hospital* Subdistrict 1/2-mile Study Area Region** Population 3,517 5,468 3,011 2,713 29, , Annual Growth 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% Households 1,683 2,058 1, , , Annual Growth 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% Employees 8,582 1, ,360 20,229 - Household Size Avg. Age Household Income $26,444 $39,233 $41,519 $59,107 $41,010 $65,752 Per Capita Income $19,534 $18,690 $23,138 $27,989 $22,683 $26,371 % Households Below Poverty Level (2015 est.) % Bachelor s Degree or Higher (pop. aged 25+) 40% 21% 28% 14% 24% 10% 12.2% 24.4% 29.6% 35.4% 25.8% 28.9% Hispanic Origin 47% 39% 27% 12% 33% 14% Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group *Data does not include transient student population at WSU **Region defined as the area within a 20-minute drive time from the corridor, in contrast with the market area, which is defined as a 10-minute drive time from the corridor. As the following figure shows, over half of all jobs in the corridor are located Downtown and about one-third are in the WSU/Hospital subdistrict. It is important to recognize that the two major employers in the south of the corridor, Weber State University and McKay-Dee Hospital, are responsible for most of the jobs in Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 12

13 Total Number WSU/Hospital subdistrict. Connecting Downtown to these two employers is one of the primary reasons for the BRT route. Comparatively, neither the East Central nor Harrison Boulevard subdistricts are major areas of employment. However, East Central has the most residents along the corridor, while Harrison despite being the smallest corridor subdistrict has more residents than the WSU/Hospital area. It should also be noted that these numbers do not include transient students commuting to and from WSU. Figure 6. Residents and Employees by Subdistrict, ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd. WSU / Hospital Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group Residents (2017) Employees (2017) As the alignment will connect Downtown to two major campuses in the south of the corridor, it is important to explore the existing conditions of WSU s housing and the demographics of its students. Weber State is one of the fastest growing universities in the state, seeing an increase of almost 700 students in its total enrollment from 2016 to The Utah System of Higher Education (USHE) forecasts WSU will grow by 2.3 percent per year over the next 10 years. This growth is likely to drive demand for new development in the southern sections of the corridor particularly for student or market-rate multifamily housing. Student housing typically targets out-of-state or international students. Of the current students enrolled at WSU, only eight percent are considered potential tenants for living in student housing (on- or near-campus). Up to this point, Weber State University has been known as a commuter campus, with most of their students originating from Davis and Weber counties. Only 27 percent (less than 5,000) of students are either from outof-state or outside Weber and Davis Counties the primary target market for student housing. WSU is now trying to recruit more traditional in-state, out-of-state, and international students which they project will shift the percentage of students living on- or near-campus to 11 percent in five years and 13 percent in 10 years. If successful, demand for more student housing will increase further. In their 2016 Campus Master Plan, WSU identified a total need for 1,500 on-campus housing units. There are approximately 1,000 existing units, of which 500 will be relocated from the University Village, meaning 1,000 will need to be constructed. However, there are no plans to construct new housing units on campus until after As such, any new housing developments targeting student will need to be private off-campus. Off-campus student housing options are currently limited, and demand numbers exclude students currently living off campus in substandard housing (potentially as much as 500 to 1,000 students) who would otherwise move if given the option. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 13

14 Figure 7. University Enrollment (Total Headcount), , and Original Residence of Students, 2017 Snow College 1.3% Change Dixie State University 7.7% Southern Utah University 5.0% Salt Lake Community College 0.4% Weber State University 4.1% Out of State 9% In-state Other 18% Davis County 42% Utah State University 0.2% Utah Valley University 5.6% University of Utah 2.0% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 Source: Higher Ed Utah (.org) and Leland Consulting Group Weber County 31% Households in transit-oriented developments generally exhibit different demographic and socioeconomic attributes than non-tod households. It appears that some of this difference is explained by common attributes of individual households that typically choose to live in TOD housing rather than being an effect of the TOD on households. In general, smaller-than-average households appear to be attracted to market-based TOD projects. These households tend to be engaged in white-collar occupations in greater proportions than average, are more likely to be rental households, and comprised of a significantly greater proportion of young people (aged 18 to 35) than the general population. The following series of figures show that many of the characteristics typically associated with TOD households already exist within the corridor. These existing characteristics provide a preliminary indication of the corridor s readiness for TOD. Population by age cohorts is shown in the following figure. Key takeaways include: The highest proportion of children are in the East Central and Harrison Boulevard areas. Young adults comprise about one-third of the corridor s population, while senior residents comprise a little over 10 percent of the corridor s population. Young adults and seniors are typically considered the two generations that drive demand for multifamily housing the most common residential typology associated with transit-oriented development. While the proportion of seniors currently living in the corridor is only marginally higher than the regional average, this may be due to the lack of suitable existing housing products, e.g., senior multifamily housing, and a higher than average student population. There is already a significantly greater proportion of young adults currently living in the corridor, which suggests that a strong base market for TOD already exists. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 14

15 Figure 8. Population by Age: Children 0-17, Young Adults 18-34, Seniors 65+ (2017) 9% 10% 10% 16% 11% 10% 35% 33% 29% 28% 32% 33% 33% 28% 34% 35% 32% 25% 23% 29% 28% 21% 26% 32% Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd. WSU / Hospital Corridor Total Region Seniors (65+) Adults (35-64) Young Adults (18-34) Children (0-17) Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group The following figure shows households by family type in the corridor study area. As noted, the primary target market for TOD typically includes single households (especially young and senior populations), households with no children, and transit-dependent households such as low-income families. The secondary market for transitoriented development includes single parents and other nonfamily (e.g., students). Married couples with children 3 and high-income households are the most difficult to attract to TOD. In the corridor, 60 percent of households can be considered the primary target market for TOD. Figure 9. Households by Family Type, Corridor Study Area, 2015 Source: ACS (from ESRI) and Leland Consulting Group 3 Traditionally, households with children have favored lower density housing types. However, if the transit service can accommodate flexible schedules, transit use could help ease affordability burdens for many families. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 15

16 On average, the corridor is comprised of smaller households than the wider region, with double the regional proportion of one-person households (36 percent versus 18 percent). This difference is particularly accentuated in Downtown, with one- and two-person households comprising almost three-quarters of all households. Figure 10. Households by Size, % 10% 22% 52% 28% 26% 24% 24% 14% 15% 15% 13% 25% 32% 35% 27% 33% 28% 25% 36% 37% 17% 28% 18% 4+ Person 3-Person 2-Person 1-Person Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd. WSU / Hospital Corridor Total 20-min Drive Time Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group In general, the corridor is dominated by rental housing, comprised of a mix of apartments and single-family rentals. Generally, the corridor contrasts significantly with the regional, where almost three-quarters of housing units are owner-occupied. This lower ownership rate may be attributed to the lower income levels seen throughout the corridor. Downtown, almost all housing units are rented, reflecting the fact that most downtown housing units are apartments, including some new buildings. In the East Central and Harrison Boulevard subdistricts, there are a mix of single-family rents and several small- to mid-sized apartment buildings (located mostly in the western end of East Central and the southern end of Harrison Boulevard). Figure 11. Housing Tenure: Percentage of Owners and Renters, % 54.5% 55.0% 40.4% 62.9% 26.2% Renter Occupied 45.5% 45.0% 59.6% 37.1% 73.8% Owner Occupied 9.4% Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd. WSU / Hospital Corridor Total 20-min Drive Time Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 16

17 Square Feet REAL ESTATE MARKET CONDITIONS This section summarizes the existing real estate market conditions for the study area and the surrounding neighborhoods. The following figures accompany the full-page development map at the end of this section. 4 The development map provides an overview of the area s various development types, symbolized by the total size of the property and the property s status. The corridor has seen significant multifamily development in the Downtown area, as have the cities of West Haven and South Ogden. Of the proposed development shown in the map, most is small retail development, while Downtown Ogden has seen the only major office development in the area. The following table focuses on multifamily, office, and retail development within the quarter-mile study area subdistricts. These land uses, as well as civic and institutional uses, are consistent with the larger goal of TOD, which is to help foster a compact, vibrant neighborhood which is supportive of transit. Other land uses, such as industrial and open space, are typically lower density uses, although open space is also key to TOD albeit on a smaller scale. As such, this analysis focuses mainly on multifamily, office, and retail development. Seven recently constructed buildings account for the 521,000 square feet built since 2012 across multifamily, office, and retail categories. Of these seven new buildings in the corridor, five are located downtown, and two are in the WSU/Hospital area. There are three new multifamily properties (all downtown), two office properties and two retail properties. Significantly more multifamily, office, and retail square footage is located Downtown than any other location. Although not shown, single-family residential is the dominant land use type in East Central and Harrison Blvd, while WSU/Hospital contains a significant amount of institutional buildings not included in the data. Figure 12. Major Land Use Categories by Year Built (1/4-mile Subdistricts) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Retail Recent (2012 to present) Retail Existing (before 2012) Office Recent (2012 to present) Office Existing (before 2012) 1,000, ,000 - Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group MFR Recent (2012 to recent) MFR Existing (before 2012) 4 A map of other development types (health care, hospitality, and specialty commercial) can be also found in the Appendix. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 17

18 Units Table 3. Major Land Use Categories by Year Built Subdistrict Pre-2012 Retail Multifamily Office Present Pre Present Pre Present Downtown 1,671,294 1, , ,499 1,705, ,561 East Central 211, , ,618 0 Harrison Blvd 136, , ,404 0 WSU/Hospital 284,453 12, , ,328 11,080 Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group A map showing locations of employment and residential areas in the corridor is provided at the end of this section (Figure 27. Locations of Employment, Residents and Retail/Entertainment, 2015). The larger the circle, the more jobs in the census block group. Yellow circles indicate the location of an employed person s residence, red circles indicate jobs in retail, food, accommodation and entertainment, and blue circles indicate all other employment. Takeaways include: Retail, food, accommodation and entertainment jobs are clustered downtown and outside the study area along Riverdale Road, with some small retail pockets along Harrison and scattered around the campus areas of WSU and the hospital. There are few major areas of employment between Downtown and the hospital/wsu. MULTIFAMILY / RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT In keeping with national trends, residential development in Ogden and South Ogden slowed significantly during the recession of 2008 to The recovery was thereafter built upon the strength of the multifamily market, with an unprecedented amount of multifamily (particularly those in structures with five units or more) permitted in 2014 and Permit activity of this level was likely due to two factors: (1) pent-up demand from the previous five years where supply was severely constrained by financial barriers, and (2) the emergence of both the Millennial and Baby Boomer generations driving demand for multifamily units. Further, Ogden City has historically taken a direct role in catalyzing several recent developments which may not have otherwise occurred. Figure 13. Building Permits Issued for Residential Units, Ogden and South Ogden, MFR Units in 5+ unit Structures MFR Units in 3- to 4-unit Structures MFR Duplex Units SFR Units Source: SOCDS Building Permit Data (from US Census Bureau) Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 18

19 Ogden and South Ogden the location of County s urban core had consistently issued over 20 percent of the County s building permits for single-family units in the first part of the 2000 s and has captured no more than 18 percent in the last ten years. In contrast, Ogden and South Ogden have captured the vast majority of the County s building permits issued for multifamily units (excluding the recession years). These trends indicate that Ogden has a locational advantage for continued multifamily development in the region. However, in the last two years (2016 and 2017), Ogden and South Ogden have seen little in the way of permit activity, while the rest of the county has continued to issue an increasing number of permits for both singlefamily and multi-family, with surrounding towns and cities experiencing significant growth. West Haven, in particular, has seen a significant boom in multifamily housing recently. In 2016 they issued permits for 257 units (32 percent of the county total), and in 2017 they issued permits for 297 units (52 percent of the county total). Other cities to issue many multifamily permits include North Ogden and Roy in 2016 (responsible for 22 and 18 percent of the county total, respectively), and Pleasant View in 2017 (responsible for 27 percent of the county total). These areas have the vacant land (available supply) to build new housing units on greenfield sites, which is financially more favorable than the higher cost of redevelopment in much of Ogden, particularly within the corridor. Figure 14. Annual Capture Rate of Weber County s Issued Permits for Residential Units, Ogden & South Ogden, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SFR Units MFR Units Source: SOCDS Building Permit Data (from US Census Bureau) The following figure provide an overview of the Wasatch Front s multifamily market by county, and Weber County s multifamily market by major city. The key findings include: Weber County s unit rent is the lowest in the Wasatch Front region for both average rent and rent per square foot. Weber County s unit sizes are among the highest in the region, second only to those in Utah County (which have significantly increased in sized over the last few years). However, unit sizes have trended down since Vacancy rates across the entire Wasatch Front region indicate a tight apartment market, where demand is higher than existing supply. In Ogden, despite new apartment development in the last few years, vacancy rates are very low. Average rents (per square foot) have trended upward in all markets except Weber (Ogden specifically). With that said, several new apartment buildings in Ogden have come online in the last two years at rents significantly above the existing average. While these few properties will have a minimal effect on Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 19

20 the overall average for Ogden, they provide invaluable comparable properties for future residential developments. Figure 15. Regional Multifamily Summary Data by County, Rents and Vacancy, 2017 By County (Wasatch Front) By City (Weber Co.) $1.20 $/SF Vacancy 7% $1.20 $/SF Vacancy 7% $1.10 6% $1.10 6% $1.00 5% $1.00 5% $0.90 4% $0.90 4% $0.80 3% $0.80 3% $0.70 2% $0.70 2% $0.60 1% $0.60 1% $0.50 0% $0.50 0% Salt Lake Utah Davis Weber Ogden Roy West Haven Source: September 2017 Greater Salt Lake Area Multifamily Market Report, CBRE In the corridor, almost all market-rate multifamily rents are above the Ogden City average ($0.83 per square foot). The highest rents are located downtown, indicating rent premiums based on certain locations. 5 The lowest rents, per Costar data, are in the WSU/Hospital subdistrict. However, this data excludes niche multifamily properties, such as student housing. It is therefore likely that the rent estimates here are conservative. Further, these rents exclude affordable multifamily housing, which is prevalent throughout the corridor. As the map at the end of this section shows, there is a particularly high concentration in both Downtown and East Central subdistricts. In fact, Ogden City has a significant and disproportionate share of the County s affordable housing relative to its population. 5 A corridor map showing average rents per square foot for each multifamily development in and around the corridor is provided at the end of this section. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 20

21 2010 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Unit Rent Per Sq. Ft. Units Unit Rent Per Sq. Ft. $0.48 $0.47 $0.74 $0.67 $0.88 $0.85 $0.88 $0.90 $0.83 $0.83 $1.03 $1.17 Figure 16. Multifamily Rent (per square foot) Comparison, Quarter-mile Study Areas, 2018 $1.20 Min Avg Max $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group The following figure shows that average rents have generally trended up since 2010, despite a significant but unexplained dip in late The rate of rent growth in the last year is unprecedented for the area, and largely attributed to the construction of new market-rate apartment properties in Downtown Ogden. Figure 17. Multifamily Rents Trend and Net Unit Absorption, , Half-mile Corridor $1.18 $1.16 $1.14 $1.12 $1.10 $1.08 $1.06 $1.04 $1.02 $1.00 Net Absorption (Units) Rents Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group New development typically results in higher vacancy rates at least temporarily as new units are gradually absorbed by the market. As such, one would expect the historical vacancy in the half-mile corridor which hovered around 10 percent in the years leading up to to increase when two new apartment buildings delivered 317 units to Downtown Ogden in However, 315 units were absorbed (i.e. tenanted) in 2017 and the overall vacancy for multifamily properties in the quarter-mile corridor closed the year out at five percent. So, while the overall vacancy across all multifamily units is still relatively high, the high absorption is indicative of an area with demand for new, quality residential products. 6 Apartments vacancy rates above five percent are usually indicative of a market with relatively low demand. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 21

22 Square Feet Figure 18. Multifamily Occupancy by Quarter-mile Study Area, ,200 1, % Vacant Occupied % 9.3% 4.4% - Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group Table 4. Multifamily Occupancy by Quarter-mile Study Area, 2018 Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/ Hospital* Current MFR Inventory (units) 1, Vacant Units Vacancy Rate (%) 5.0% 7.0% 9.3% 4.4% Avg. Rent $0.88 $0.88 $0.83 $0.67 Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group *Not including non-private student housing/dorms on WSU campus To reiterate the age of the corridor s existing multifamily development, the following chart shows the decade in which the corridor s multifamily apartments were built. While the vast majority were built before 1970, over 400 apartment units have been built on the corridor since These new developments are exclusively located in Downtown, increasing the previous downtown apartment inventory by over two-thirds. Downtown accounts for over 55 percent of all multifamily apartments in the corridor. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 22

23 Square Feet Figure 19. Total Multifamily Units by Decade Built Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd. WSU/Hospital Pre s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group In general, multifamily appears to be a relatively strong sector and conditions appear primed for more development, especially downtown and near WSU. While average rents are low for the existing multifamily stock (in part due to its age and the presence of affordable housing), recently constructed apartment projects have performed above what many believed to be the Ogden market. Further, vacancy rates are low (indicative of a tight market), student enrollment at WSU is increasing and there is interest in new, off-campus student housing near both 36 th and 34 th. However, the latter will require changes to the existing zoning or an overlay zone to allow for more than three unrelated individuals in a single unit. RETAIL/COMMERCIAL The following chart and corresponding graphic provide summary data for the corridor s retail development. The average vacancy rate for the corridor is about seven percent, with very high (30%) vacancies in Harrison Boulevard, driven primarily by a 50 percent vacancy in an 85,000 square foot building at Harrison Plaza. Approximately 110,000 square foot is vacant in the Downtown area, resulting in a 6.6 percent vacancy rate. Despite the low inventory relative to Downtown, the WSU/Hospital area has very low vacancy (less than one percent) in its retail space, indicative of high demand. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 23

24 Square Feet Square Feet Figure 20. Retail Occupancy by Quarter-mile Study Area, ,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , % Vacant SF Occupied 0.7% 4.5% 31.4% Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group Table 5. Retail Occupancy by Quarter-mile Study Area, 2018 Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Current Retail Inventory 1,672, , , ,453 Vacant SF 110,153 1,440 42,866 13,232 Vacancy Rate (%) 6.6% 0.7% 31.4% 4.5% Avg. Rent $12.74 $12.00 $10.07 $20.33 Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group As the following figure shows, since an expected dip during and in the brief years after the recession, retail absorption has been positive, albeit low. Figure 21. Annual Net Retail Absorption, Half-mile Study Area, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group Net Absorption Average 18, The range of corridor retail rents is wide in both Downtown and WSU/Hospital subdistricts. Meanwhile, a low retail inventory and older retail development in both East Central and Harrison Blvd. subdistricts is shown in the low rents. As with recent absorption trends, if retail can consistently achieve the maximum rents currently seen in Downtown and the WSU/Hospital subdistricts, the feasibility of new development would greatly increase. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 24

25 Square Feet $6.00 $8.00 Rent Per Sq. Ft. (NNN) $12.74 $12.00 $12.00 $12.00 $10.07 $13.20 $11.00 $20.33 $24.00 $30.00 Figure 22. Retail Rent Comparison by Quarter-mile Study Area, 2018 $30 $25 Min Avg Max $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group OFFICE / EMPLOYMENT The following figure and corresponding table provide an overview of the office market on the corridor. Key findings include: Approximately 69 percent of the corridor s office space is located Downtown, and 23 percent is found in the WSU/Hospital area. Neither East Central nor Harrison Blvd are strong office destinations. Office vacancies on the corridor average about nine percent. As with retail, the highest vacancy is found in the Harrison Blvd. area (27 percent), due primarily to a single vacant 29,400-square-foot building located at 3293 Harrison Blvd. Downtown, East Central, and WSU/Hospital areas have vacancy rates of 7.3 percent, 3.5 percent, and 11.1 percent, respectively. Figure 23. Office Occupancy by Quarter-mile Study Area, ,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , % Vacant SF Occupied 11.1% 3.5% 26.8% Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 25

26 Square Feet Table 6. Office Occupancy by Quarter-mile Study Area, 2018 Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Current Office Inventory 1,815, , , ,408 Vacant SF 131,639 4,019 30,389 66,197 Vacancy Rate (%) 7.3% 3.5% 26.8% 11.1% Avg. Rent $14.03 $11.00 $12.25 $13.80 Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group Absorption has generally been positive, albeit very low (as with retail). However, absorption of office space was negative in 2017 for the first time since Figure 24. Annual Net Office Absorption, Half-mile Study Area, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 25,993 20, ,000-40,000 Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group Net Absorption Average As the following figure shows, notable characteristics of the corridor s office rents include: Downtown has the highest rents, but also the largest range. This is to be expected given Downtown has over two-thirds of all office inventory in the corridor. East Central, which has the least amount of office space of all four subdistricts, has the lowest average rents. The office properties located in this area are typically small (averaging 6,500 square feet), indicative of a formerly residential area (i.e., many office properties are single-family residential home conversions). Harrison Blvd, like East Central, is a weak office market. The $15.50 rent shown as the max rent in the corridor is the asking rent for a 29,000-square-foot building, currently 100 percent vacant. Office in the WSU/Hospital subdistrict, anchored by strong institutional uses, is primarily medical and healthcare-related. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 26

27 Rent Per Sq. Ft. (Gross) $9.07 $10.00 $9.00 $11.00 $12.00 $12.25 $10.60 $14.03 $13.80 $15.50 $17.00 $21.50 Figure 25. Office Rent Comparison by Quarter-mile Study Area, 2018 $25 Min Avg Max $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd WSU/Hospital Source: Costar and Leland Consulting Group INDUSTRIAL & FLEX A development map of industrial and flex development types can be found in the Appendix. Key findings include: Thirty-six industrial and/or flex properties totaling about 2.5 million square feet of space have been built since 2012 or are under construction in the region. Most of these properties are in the Business Depot Ogden, located about three miles northwest of Downtown Ogden. A further 2.3 million square feet is proposed, primarily in the area surrounding Hill Airforce Base (primarily Falcon Hill). At 500 to 1,000 square feet per employee, these properties would increase regional employment by 2,300 to 4,600 jobs. Most of these properties are clustered along the I-15 corridor, where access to the interstate is good and larger tracts of land is more readily available (the average industrial or flex property in the region is located on 9 acres, and 4 acres for newer developments). Rent is low at $7 per square foot, typical of industrial developments. OTHER DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY While development patterns over the last decade have been indicative of a relatively weak market (particularly outside of downtown), many planned or proposed projects throughout the corridor suggest the market may be at a tipping point. The Ogden Redevelopment Agency has been highly active in attracting investment in the area and hope to attract another $6 billion in new development in the next decade, much of which will be focused in the half-mile corridor. While these public efforts are not necessarily reflective of market conditions, they generally help to build momentum in the market and catalyze further development. Weber State University is also actively pursuing several projects on their campus and within the corridor, including an outdoor recreation facility (estimated to be around 16,000 square feet) targeting both students and the surrounding community. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 27

28 MARKET STRENGTH The strength of the real estate market in any given community is a significant determinant of the type of investment that might be made. It is difficult to catalyze private development in an area with limited or no existing market activity. Conversely, an area with strong market activity may not need the same level of intervention to attract development or encourage desired building types. As such, each subdistrict of the corridor can be grouped into one of three categories based on the existing demographic and real estate market conditions in the corridor: Limited, Emerging, and Stronger. Categorizing these areas by market strength helps to structure short- and long-term investments in transit areas by priority a critical component part of the implementation phase. Table 7. Market Strength Categories Market Strength Limited Market Emerging Market Strong Market Description Characterized by weaker market conditions and lack the sales values or rents necessary to support new compact and/or mixed-use development. Investment in these areas are therefore less likely to catalyze additional private development and should be used only on a limited basis. Characterized by limited to moderate real estate market conditions and where intensive building types are generally not supported in the near-term. Although they may lack immediate market support for TOD, emerging areas may be ideally suited for catalytic investments to enhance local market strength. These areas represent a sweet spot for investment, since land and development costs are not elevated (as in Stronger market areas) and small investments may catalyze further market investment by creating market comparables. Characterized by areas where market conditions are beginning to support higher density mixed use development and infill. Since the markets of these areas are already ripe or ripening, TOD Program investments should focus on improving urban living infrastructure (amenities), developing prototype developments for the region and funding more aggressive (e.g. more significant increase in density compared to recent development in the area) TOD projects. Lowto moderate-income housing development in these areas may be more challenging due to high land prices, so strong market areas may be an appropriate place for the City to support affordable and workforce housing projects. These areas would also be locations where the city should focus on aligning zoning to allow for the highest/most productive transit-oriented uses. Source: Metro and Leland Consulting Group FINDINGS Based on development trends and socioeconomic, economic, and real estate characteristics, the corridor can be considered an EMERGING market, and may be ideally suited for catalytic investments to enhance local market strength. While most of the corridor appears to lack immediate market support for TOD (rents and vacancy rates for the corridor are relatively weak), more recent development has seen higher rents and fast absorption rates and may be indicative of greater market support. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 28

29 The following information identifies the strength of the market in each corridor subdistrict and describes the reasoning behind each categorization. Downtown: STRONG Market Downtown is a mixture of low-income households, smaller households, renters, and old householders. The concentration of affordable housing projects is particularly apparent in Downtown s lower median income and high poverty level. Both population and employment growth in the corridor is projected to be highest within the Downtown subdistrict. Downtown has the highest square footage of multifamily, office, and retail land uses, and is the only subdistrict where new development has occurred (mostly multifamily). Existing development across all land uses have low vacancies and are generally achieving the highest asking rents in the corridor. East Central: EMERGING Market East Central is a young, diverse population, with low projected employment growth and moderate residential growth, primarily due to the presence of single-family residential in much of the subdistrict. Multifamily, office, and retail inventory is one of the lowest in the corridor so available rents are limited, but vacancies are very low. Harrison Blvd.: LIMITED Market Residents of Harrison Boulevard are generally a mixture of young and senior populations, with relatively low projected employment growth and moderate residential growth. Like East Central, multifamily, office, and retail inventory is very low, so rents are limited. Vacancies in multifamily, office, and retail are also high. Development in the Harrison Boulevard subdistrict is limited to the west side of Harrison due to the significant presence of single-family residential development on the east. New development is therefore likely to be limited to the west. WSU/Hospital: EMERGING/STRONG Market The WSU/Hospital subdistrict is predominantly institutional and residential, with some commercial development. Resident income is high and both residential and employment growth is high (although less than downtown). While multifamily unit inventory is low, vacancies are low and niche multifamily properties (senior and student housing) command the highest rents on the corridor. For office, rents are low, but vacancy is also low, and a small cluster of medical-related office development has emerged near the hospital. For retail, inventory is limited, but existing development has almost zero vacancy and the highest asking rents in the corridor. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 29

30 Figure 26. Development Map (all land uses) Source: AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 30

31 Figure 27. Locations of Employment, Residents and Retail/Entertainment, 2015 Source: LEHD and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 31

32 Figure 28. Multifamily Properties by Rent and Unit Size, 2018 Source: Costar, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 32

33 Figure 29. Multifamily Properties by Rent Type and Unit Size, 2018 Source: Costar, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 33

34 FORECASTED DEMAND/ABSORPTION Forecasting absorption provides an estimate of the rate of development a given area may achieve. This is an important first step for identifying TOD opportunities. Here, the forecasted rate of absorption is impacted only by population and employment growth and ignores land supply and zoning constraints. Absorption across all land use types will be consistent with the future growth projections. For residential, we use household growth rates for the next 20 years from WFRC. For office, WFRC s employment projections are used to determine growth (or lack thereof) in each industry sector. For retail, we perform a leakage analysis to determine the gap, if any, in retail supply and demand, and apply these same household growth rates to determine future demand in each retail category. It should be noted that WFRC s TAZ level forecasts are developed by local planning officials based on current land use and land supply/constraints, zoning, household and employment data, etc. 7 and therefore do not reflect future conditions if significant changes are made to the local urban environment. REGIONAL PROJECTIONS Per WFRC s projections, most household growth between through 2050 is projected to occur west of I-15 in the suburban regions of Davis and Weber Counties. Relative to the rest of the region, Ogden is projected to see moderate growth, but high growth is projected in Downtown. In contrast, regional employment growth is projected to concentrate primarily around downtown Ogden and the I-84 corridor (just north of the air force base). Elsewhere, pockets in North Ogden, West Point, and West Haven can be expected to experience growth. Full-page maps showing annual household and employment growth rates through 2050 are located at the end of this section. CORRIDOR PROJECTIONS In the corridor, as the following figures show, employment is projected to grow significantly faster than population, and marginally faster than households. Households are projected to grow at approximately double the rate of the overall population, indicating shrinking household sizes going forward. With regard to absorption, projected growth rates greater than one-percent for both households and employment is positive. Demand is driven by growth, which should result in positive net absorption of new development supply. 7 The new forecasts now use the Real Estate Market Model (REMM). This model allows for a robust forecast of land use and socio-economic conditions, and is sensitive to travel demand, transportation investment, market forces, and local land use policy. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 34

35 Table 8. Half-Mile Corridor Growth Projections, est. Est Annual Growth Rate 2027 est est. 10-year Growth Total 20-year Growth Total Population 29, % 31,350 33,000 1,500 3,150 Households 11, % 12,300 13,600 1,150 2,450 Approximate Residential Unit Demand 1,150 2,450 Employment 20, % 23,000 26,000 2,600 5,600 Approximate Commercial & Employment Space Demand (sq. ft.) 790,000 1,680,000 Source: ESRI, WFRC and Leland Consulting Group Note: commercial and employment space demand is based on 300 square feet per employee Figure 30. Half-Mile Corridor Growth Projections (Base Year 2016) 60,000 55,000 50,000 Employment Employment (proj.) Population Population (proj.) Year ,000 40,000 Year ,000 30, Source: WFRC and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 35

36 Figure 31. Projected Density of Absolute Household Growth, 2011 to 2050 Source: AGRC, WFRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 36

37 Figure 32. Projected Density of Absolute Employment Growth, 2011 to 2050 Source: AGRC, WFRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 37

38 Figure 33. Annual Corridor Growth (Employment + Population), Source: AGRC, WFRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 38

39 RESIDENTIAL HOUSING TRENDS The Great Recession had a profound and lasting effect on the housing market, and while the recovery is now well underway, more people are renting than ever before. For many people, financial barriers such as rising student debts, access to credit, and cumbersome down payments have forced them to rent. For many others, the choice to rent is simply a choice. Indeed, it is well established that the two most populous generations the Baby Boomers (ages 54 to 72) and Millennials (ages 22 to 37) are currently the primary drivers of demand for residential units in walkable, urban locations that offer flexibility and a range of amenities. As Baby Boomers reach retirement age and see the last of their children leave home, they are increasingly attracted to smaller move-down or lock-and-leave housing which requires less maintenance and affords more flexibility. As such, age-restricted and senior multifamily housing has risen near the top of the list for best investment choices (per ULI s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2018 ) For Millennials, the situation is more nuanced and difficult to forecast. The common rhetoric for many years was that Millennials desire urban living and will continue to reside in urban cities because of financial conditions and choice. However, while demand for urban rental apartments has remained high among Millennials, they are increasingly forming households and having children, looking at select suburbs and secondary markets because of the quality of life, lower cost, and space and yard availability. Indeed, 70 percent of Millennials expect to be homeowners by 2020, even though only 26 percent own today (per ULI s Gen Y and Housing ). With that said, generational trends associated the next emerging generation Gen Z (ages 21 and below) is relatively unknown. Other reports have recently documented important trends in housing. Findings include: Cost of housing, neighborhood safety, proximity to work, K-12 school quality, and community character, ambience, and visual appeal were the top five critical community features for survey respondents. 8 Urban setting, proximity to shopping, dining and entertainment, walkability, and availability of mass transit are also important but not critical features in a community. 9 The more walkable the community, the more satisfied residents are with their quality of life. 10 Access to public transportation is much more important to those earning under $50,000 per year, while walkability is also more important to those with lower incomes. 11 Sixty percent of residents would spend at least a little more for a house in a walkable community. 12 Four-in-ten people prefer a walkable community and short commute. Millennials, in particular, are swayed by a shorter commute Urban Land Institute (ULI), Gen Y and Housing: What They Want and Where They Want it, Ibid. 10 National Association of Realtors (NAR), National Community and Transportation Preference Survey, Ibid. 12 Ibid. 13 Ibid. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 39

40 Units Talk of generational shifts, however, sometimes misses the point. Ultimately, people are waiting longer to make significant life choices, such as buying a home or having children, and quality of place has emerged as a primary desire for almost all prospective residents across all demographic groups. Quality of place is simply the components that make any given place enjoyable to live, such as availability of and access to good schools, parks, quality healthcare, transit, shops, entertainment, and cultural amenities. ESTIMATING RESIDENTIAL DEMAND Based on average household growth rates (averaged across historic growth and projected growth), There is demand for approximately 10,000 additional units within the primary market area (approximated by a 10-minute drive time from the corridor) in the next 10 years, or 1,000 units per year. While only about 35 percent of residential housing units in the market area are currently renter-occupied, recent trends (such as building permit data, which indicate 45 percent of new units permitted in the last three years were multifamily units) indicate an upshift in rental housing. Key findings from the residential forecasting include: Absorption of new housing units across all tenures (owned and rented) is likely to be highest for units affordable to households earning between $35,000 and $150,000. Rental housing demand is highest among households with very low incomes (for example, students) and households earning between $35,000 and $75,000 (approximate monthly rent range of $875 to over $1,000 per unit). Owned housing demand is highest among households earning $50,000 to $150,000 (approximate home price range of $250,000 to over $500,000). Given recent trends, it is expected that the study area corridor can capture approximately 20 to 30 percent of market area demand (2,000 to 3,000 units over 10 years). Also, in keeping with recent trends, the highest capture rate is likely to be for rental apartments, especially downtown. Figure year Market Area Residential Demand by Income Bracket, ,000 1,800 10,000 units total 1,600 1,400 Rental Owner 1,090 1,200 1, , Source: Leland Consulting Group (Note: Assumes an additional 6% of new unit demand due to second homes, demolition of existing houses, and natural vacancy.) up to $15K $15-25K $25-35K $35-50K $50-75K $75-100K $ K $ K $200K+ Household Income Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 40

41 EMPLOYMENT OFFICE MARKET TRENDS Across the United States, traditional office development is increasingly considered obsolete in today s shifting market. Tenant preferences are swinging toward mixed-use, walkable, live-work-play environments, as companies find it is tougher to recruit the emerging Millennial workforce to sterile, single-use buildings and in auto-dependent neighborhoods. There are many parallels with retail, here, although the office market is impacted more by location preferences and workplace trends than emerging technologies. Location Preferences While people once followed the jobs, corporations and professional firms are now following people back to the city. These companies have increasingly seen prospective employees choosing to live, work, and play in more interesting often urban locations, and now they have realized that attracting these employees requires them to be in these places too. As such, authenticity of place has become a sought-after commodity. Companies and workers now look for the genuine, the idiosyncratic, the unique and, most importantly, a personality of place that matches their own. In fact, a recent Newmark study identified a significant rent premium for office properties with transit access, dining operations, and open floor plates of around 50 percent higher than those with obsolescent characteristics. For cities, this means the opportunity lies in attracting more investment and focusing on placemaking to make themselves the place where the best and brightest live, work and shop. This might require updating office and industrial areas to reflect the way we now do business and work day-to-day. And, as the finance, utility and even government sectors continue to consolidate, cities will need to backfill their buildings with new tenants to keep downtown an interesting and lively place. For colleges and universities, the opportunity is drawing employers closer to their campuses in a way that will boost research funding, create jobs for graduates and consulting for faculty, and raise their overall visibility in the community. Institutions that do this creatively will also be able to tap new sources of financing for campus expansion. Investments in student housing will further boost the local experience. Workplace Trends General trends impacting the office workspace include a steady decline in the amount of square feet per employee, the increase in standardized work spaces and non-dedicated (shared) office space with more amenities, more tolerance for telecommuting and collaborative work spaces, and a greater emphasis on higher space utilization, innovation, and productivity. Within the private sector, creative office environments are becoming ever more popular. Real estate investors are wondering whether the office sector is next in line for a painful shakeup, as tenants continue to use office space more efficiently. The impact of tenants push for greater space efficiency has created winners and losers within the office market. Fitting more employees into less space has enabled office tenants to sign smaller leases or afford higher-end space. This is a particularly compelling tradeoff in the current market, as tenants are increasingly relying on amenity-rich office environments to help recruit the highly skilled workers who are now in short supply. There are several examples of large companies moving to new space use models in their office environment. For example, P&G allows many workers to work anywhere and has been moving to standardized non-dedicated Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 41

42 space, increasing their office work station utilization rate from 60 to 90 percent, and HP is targeting 120 to 150 square feet per employment and 85 percent utilization with standardization and highly shared space. Innovation Districts For the past 50 years, the landscape of innovation has been dominated by places like Silicon Valley suburban corridors of spatially isolated corporate campuses, accessible only by car, with little emphasis on the quality of life or on integrating work, housing, and recreation. A new complementary urban model is now emerging, giving rise to innovation districts. Innovation districts are the manifestation of mega-trends altering the location preferences of people and firms and, in the process, reconceiving the very link between the economy, placemaking and social networking. These districts are geographic areas where leading-edge anchor institutions and companies cluster and connect with start-ups, business incubators, and accelerators. They are also physically compact, transit-accessible, and technically-wired and offer mixed-use housing, office, and retail. Innovation districts are still an early trend that, because of their multi-dimensional nature, has yet to receive a systematic analysis across the United States and other countries. Yet they have the unique potential during this pivotal post-recession period to spur productive, inclusive, and sustainable economic development. ESTIMATING OFFICE DEMAND Here, we apply forecasted industry employment growth to industry standards for office space use per employee to estimate future office demand. While industrial development will also be driven by employment growth, existing industrial development is clustered elsewhere and is not recommended on the BRT corridor. Based on projected employment growth rates (per WFRC s TAZ projections), there is total demand for an additional 742,000 square feet of new office development between now and 2028 in the primary market area (approximated by a 10-minute drive time from the corridor). Demand is greatest in the industry categories of: (1) Healthcare and Social Assistance; (2) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; (3) Public Administration; and (4) Administrative and Support Services. Demand for new office space in these four industry sectors total about three-quarters (578,000 square feet) of total new demand over a 10-year period, or 58,000 square feet per year almost the size of the Junction Wells Fargo Building in Downtown Ogden. Most recent office buildings in the region (Davis and Weber Counties) have been built along the I-15 corridor, outside of the designated market area. That said, many small to medium sized office properties were built within the Ogden market area between 2000 and 2012, and a significant amount of older office space is clustered in Downtown Ogden and, to a lesser extent, around WSU and the hospital in the south of the corridor. Many of the latter are medical-related. New downtown development includes the 100,000+ square foot Lincoln Building (tenanted by the IRS). Some small, older office buildings are clustered around. According to WFRC s TAZ projections, the corridor is projected to capture about 45 percent of the market area s new employment growth between 2015 and However, given the weak rents and lack of recent office development in the corridor, most of this growth is likely to occur in the short-term in the Downtown area where rents are highest. Some additional activity may occur in the south of the corridor, particularly build-tosuit office and medical-related development where medical facilities already exist. Further, existing vacancies in Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 42

43 larger buildings will likely absorb office users before new development occurs (providing the building is not obsolete), particularly buildings closest to Downtown and WSU. Figure Year Office Demand: Total Square Feet, Corridor Market Area Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Tech Svcs. Public Administration Administrative & Support Svcs. Educational Svcs. Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Other Svcs., except Public Admin. Finance & Insurance Construction Retail Trade Information Wholesale Trade Accommodation & Food Svcs. Transportation & Warehousing Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Mgmt. of Companies & Enterprises Manufacturing Utilities Mining, Oil & Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forest, Fish, Hunt 53,391 34,250 18,001 17,188 13,800 7,279 6,453 4,055 3,381 2,988 2, , , , ,777 Source: Leland Consulting Group RETAIL/COMMERCIAL RETAIL MARKET TRENDS Generally, the retail industry is in an unprecedented state of disruption and transition, impacted by the growth of ecommerce (internet sales), declining traditional brick and mortar store sales, consolidation of major retail chain stores, and the overall decline in overall demand for new retail space (outside of a downtown or walkable urban environment). The Rise of Ecommerce Between 2001 and 2015, total online retail sales grew at a 21.8 percent annual growth rate and accounted for 22 percent of total retail sales growth. During the same period, brick and mortar stores grew at only 3.7 percent annually, decreasing their share of the total retail market from 98 percent to 89 percent. While still only a small total market share, estimates indicate that up to 20 percent of total US sales will be attributed to ecommerce by The rise of online retail has also had a major impact on the way retailers are doing business. As more people turn to the internet to do their shopping, traditional brick and mortar stores are altering their store formats and incorporating an online platform into their business concepts. Omnichannel retail strategies, where a retailer operates through both physical locations and online sales, have been a necessity in today s market. The list of top online retailers reinforces this point as many also have a significant brick and mortar presence. Of the top 25 companies with the highest online retail sales in 2016, 18 were more traditional brick-and-mortar Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 43

44 retailers. These include companies such as Walmart, Best Buy, Macy s Inc., Nordstrom Inc., Target Corp., Gap Inc. and Neiman Marcus. 14 That said, Amazon remains king among online retailers, with almost six times the sales volume of the second ranked retailer Walmart. Downtown and Other Retail Trends Several other national trends impacting the retail industry are as follow: The role of entertainment in driving downtown retail is strong and growing. Many cities are pursuing the potential for entertainment as anchor projects, particularly in the form of arts and cultural facilities, for their downtowns. Food and entertainment retail remain strong and expect continued growth, often serving as anchors. Expanding or growing retail concepts include fresh fast/casual dining, local arts, and lifestyle and wellness retail. Neighborhood grocery-anchored retail continues to experience good demand growth and falling vacancies. However, these may be facing some underlying risks due to over-retailing and tenant competition as developers seek safe plays against ecommerce. Contracting or declining retail concepts include fast food, dollar stores, and commodity retail. Downtowns with large resident populations that choose to shop locally have the best chance of retaining independent retailers. In some cities, universities are becoming active in helping their host cities enhance the urban experience by transforming underutilized properties and boosting local business with a stronger downtown presence. The most successful and resilient retail establishments will be in more mature market areas (i.e., cities versus new suburbs). Lifestyle centers are replacing malls by attempting to create a sense of community, and focus on food, entertainment, music, books and home hoods. National trends toward compact, urban living, with less car dependence will facilitate increased downtown retail spending. New lifestyle centers will seek to become more like downtowns by creating usable public spaces and a more unique shopping experience. SALES LEAKAGE This section compares household spending patterns to the retail inventory within a 10-minute drive time of the BRT corridor. As the following table shows, the Ogden area is highly productive across most industry categories, with sales significantly higher than the estimated demand within the market area. The area is particularly strong in the categories of General Merchandise and Health and Personal Care, with sales almost doubling demand, indicating that these are especially strong pull factors that draw customers from the surrounding region. The categories of, Furniture and Home Furnishings, and Building Material and Garden Equipment are also very strong. Only in the categories of Food and Beverage (Grocery) and Electronics and Appliance has annual leakage occurred. In these two categories, approximately $102 million of current household demand is spent outside the market area annually. That said, while Grocery is likely to maintain its importance in the local market, Electronics and Appliance is a category especially vulnerable to the threat of e-commerce. 14 wwd.com/business-news/financial/amazon-walmart-top-ecommerce-retailers / Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 44

45 Table 9. Retail Leakage by Spending Category, Retail Market Area (10-min Drive Time), 2018 Current Est. HH Demand (ESRI) Current Est. Sales Estimated Surplus or Leakage Furniture and Home Furnishings $57,685,379 $97,893,915 $40,208,536 Electronics and Appliance $65,535,198 $45,230,641 $(20,304,557) Building Material, Garden Equip $119,094,731 $175,769,828 $56,675,097 Food and Beverage (grocery) $313,729,397 $231,756,377 $(81,973,020) Health and Personal Care $85,860,479 $169,319,594 $83,459,115 Clothing and Accessories $91,408,925 $100,949,773 $9,540,848 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music $78,014,052 $107,353,347 $29,339,295 General Merchandise $349,653,264 $667,156,225 $317,502,961 Misc. Store Retailers $77,466,913 $79,197,346 $1,730,433 Foodservice and Drinking Places $202,771,105 $214,886,303 $12,115,198 Other (including cinema, prof./med. office, consumer banks, etc.) Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group ESTIMATING RETAIL DEMAND $144,121,944 $188,951,335 $44,829,391 Total $1,532,211,856 $2,131,902,841 $599,690,985 Total (among Leakage Categories Only) $102,277,577 Demand is mostly generated by household growth within the retail market area. As such, to estimate future demand, we apply the projected annual growth rate (1.4 percent) to existing market area demand. We also assume a certain rate of leakage recapture and replacement of future obsolete retail stock (estimated at onepercent per 10 years). Market Potential The primary market area is more than adequately supplied with regional-level retail. Any additional development (except in the grocery category) will therefore need to result from the continued growth of households. Despite significant market area demand mostly from household growth it is unlikely the corridor will achieve a capture rate higher than 20 percent in any retail category other than Grocery, Foodservice and Drinking Places, and Other (which includes entertainment-based retail such as cinema, as well as professional/medical office and consumer banks). Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 45

46 Figure Year Retail Market Area Demand by Source (10-minute Drive Time), Food and Beverage (grocery) General Merchandise Foodservice and Drinking Places Other Building Material, Garden Equip Clothing and Accessories Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book, Music Misc. Store Retailers Household Growth Leakage Recapture Replacement Electronics and Appliance Furniture and Home Furnishings Health and Personal Care Source: ESRI and Leland Consulting Group 933,000 sf total - 50, , , ,000 est. square feet Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 46

47 TOD LOCATIONS While demographic and market conditions help to establish the overall strength of the real estate market, a more nuanced analysis of subdistrict conditions is necessary to determine specific opportunities for transitoriented development (TOD). As such, this section focuses on two key topics: 1. Subdistrict conditions and land supply to determine existing opportunities for TOD. 2. Transit orientation for each area to determine the suitability of TOD. The potential for future transit-oriented development along the BRT corridor is dependent on several factors, including land cost, attainable rents, and underlying demand drivers (e.g., proximity to jobs, schools, natural amenities, etc.). By taking a closer look at the specific physical and market conditions in the designated subdistricts, we can show each area as it relates to the: 1. Development capacity of sites; 2. Potential for adaptive reuse; 3. Residential compatibility with adjacent uses; 4. Proximity/ access to residential goods and services; and 5. Public realm conditions. The market strength of the four corridor subdistricts also factor into the discussion, with new development more likely to be financially feasible in emerging and stronger markets. LAND SUPPLY Without a sufficient quantity of vacant or underutilized land, compact, transit-oriented redevelopment can be prohibitively expensive due to high costs of property assemblage and demolition. The following improvement-to-land ratio map is a screening tool to help identify and quantify parcel acreages with strong redevelopment potential due to current vacancy or underutilization (approximated by comparing building values to land values on a given parcel). Low improvement-to-land ratios (e.g., less than 1.5) suggest vacant land or buildings that are smaller, older, poorly maintained. Conversely, high improvement-to-land ratios suggest buildings that are larger, newer, or well-maintained. Improvement-to-land ratios in the half-mile corridor are relatively high on average, indicating high property utilization. It is important to note that the grayed-out properties are considered exempt parcels by the Weber County Assessor. The building market value for each of these exempt parcels is not listed in the assessor database (even though the total market value of the property value is shown), so symbolizing the I:L ratio in the following map is therefore not possible for these properties. With that said, most of these properties have existing developments such as schools, government offices, churches, and Weber State University campus buildings, and should not be considered redevelopable. The I:L ratio for exempt properties that are known to be 100 percent vacant (many of which are owned by Ogden City, UTA, Weber State University, Ogden City Redevelopment Agency, etc.) are shown in the map. Publicly owned properties often present major opportunities for redevelopment given the potential for public-private partnerships or other development incentives. A full-page map showing improvement-to-land ratios throughout the corridor is as follows. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 47

48 Figure 37. Improvement to Land Ratio (Underutilized and Vacant Land), 2018 Source: AGRC, TIGER, Weber County Assessor, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 48

49 ZONING If implemented correctly, zoning can be used as a tool to promote development around transit by allowing for compact development and a mix of uses, requiring active ground floors, and other critical elements. However, zoning is often cited as one of the primary barriers to higher density development and/or TOD: desired land uses may be prohibited; allowed heights and densities may be prohibitively low; minimum lot sizes and setbacks and maximum lot coverage may be counter to TOD design principle; or parking requirements may cause a project to be financially not feasible. The existing zoning categories in the corridor as well as basic information, such as permitted uses, required setbacks and maximum building heights are presented in the following table. A corridor zoning map is provided on the next page. Table 10. Corridor Zoning Zone Zone Description Permitted Uses Front Setback (ft.) Max Lot Coverage (%) Max Bldg. Height (ft.) C-1 Neighborhood Commercial Commercial 20 50% 35 CP-2 Community Commercial Commercial 20 50% 50 CBD Central Business District Commercial, MFR, MU None None None* CBDI CBD Intensive Commercial, MFR, MU None None None NC-1 Limited Scale Neighborhood Commercial None None 20 Commercial NC-2 Expanded Scale Commercial, Townhomes, MFR, MU None None 35 Neighborhood Commercial PI Professional/Institution Commercial, Mixed Use Office 15 50% 35 R-1-10 Single Family Residential SFR 30 25% 35 R-1-8 Single Family Residential SFR 30 25% 35 R-1-5 Single Family Residential SFR 25 25% 35 R-2 Two-Family Residential SFR, duplex 25 25% 35 R-2EC Two-Family Residential East SFR, duplex 20 25% 35 Central R3 Multiple-family Residential SFR, MFR (9+ units conditional) 25 40% 35 R-4 Multiple-family Residential SFR, MFR (9+ units conditional) 20 50% None R-5 Multiple-family Residential SFR, MFR (50+ units conditional) 20 60% None Source: Ogden City *55ft limit in the 25 th Street Historic District Extensive stakeholder interviews conducted for the project have identified where the existing code needs to be improved to facilitate future more urban development and TOD. For example, the existing zoning code limits residents in multifamily dwellings to a maximum of three unrelated individuals (in keeping with a state law). This is counterproductive to modern multifamily student housing which typically has four to six unrelated individuals living in a single unit. This barrier would be lifted by amending existing multifamily zones or creating a student housing-specific overlay zone to allow more unrelated individuals. While there is no one-size-fits-all solution to zoning for TOD, existing zoning categories can be adjusted to allow for higher densities and mixed-use development, creating basic urban design standards, requiring bike Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 49

50 parking, or allowing for exemptions to private or public open space requirements. These actions are relatively easy for local governments since they can be done through simple amendments to an existing zoning code. Ogden Zoning Source: Ogden City and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 50

51 TRANSIT ORIENTATION While market strength provides a rough measure of development feasibility based on real estate market conditions, it does not offer an indication of how supportive the surrounding physical environment is for transitoriented development (TOD). However, by also calculating Transit Orientation how an area scores against the Five P s 15 we can identify potential TOD locations within a quarter-mile of the proposed BRT stations. 16 The Five P s are as follow. Table 11. Measuring Transit Orientation - Five P's Element People/Activity Place/Proximity Physical Form Parks Ped and Bike Metric Total number of residents and employees within quarter-mile subdistrict Number of destinations that can be accessed on foot in subdistrict (Walk Score) Neighborhood pattern and design (block size) Access to parks and open space Length of sidewalks and bike paths in subdistrict Source: Transit-Oriented Development Strategic Plan, Metro (Portland); Leland Consulting Group. The following chart provides a summary of each area s score against the 5 P s of transit orientation, providing a clear comparison of each area s strengths and weaknesses. The highest possible score is 10 out of 10 (indicating ideal transit orientation), with individual scores ranging from 0 (low), 1 (medium), and 2 (high). Figure 38. Subdistrict 5 "P's" Scores Source: Leland Consulting PEOPLE/ACTIVITY People are the lifeforce of any given area. The greater the number of people, the greater the number of businesses, amenities, and other attractions that an area can generally support. The total number of residents and workers in an area also has a direct correlation with reduced auto trips and increased transit ridership. 15 Traditionally, true TOD has been said to possess the 3 D s of density, diversity (e.g., mix of uses, age cohorts, income groups), and design (pedestrian scale and orientation). For the purposes of better capturing urban character in a composite measure, a more holistic view of the transit friendliness of transit communities is proposed here. 16 Beyond a quarter-mile, BRT is unlikely to have a significant impact on development. There may be other opportunities for TOD in some areas (e.g., within the downtown) but development that truly capitalizes on its proximity to the BRT will probably be within a couple blocks of a given station. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 51

52 With regard to transit-supportive densities, research shows that significant transit ridership gains begin to occur when density surpasses 30 activity units (residents plus employees) per gross acre. For BRT due to the lower cost-per-rider model the minimum level of density for a viable system is 17 activity units per gross acre in a single subdistrict. At these lower density thresholds, the potential for TOD is influenced by other aspects of the built environment that are closely inter-related with density. These factors include land use mix, connectivity, urban form and design, circulation, and parking type. The presence of major destinations, such as employment centers or large institutions such as hospitals or universities, can function as anchors to the transit corridor that play a significant role in generating ridership. A more dispersed mix of uses across multiple stations along a transit corridor can generate travel demand, including for many non-peak trips to access goods, services, and recreation. 17 Notable findings regarding people/activity in the corridor are as follow: Residents and employees are captured by ESRI, but not WSU s resident student body or patients visiting the hospital. While the specific numbers are not available for either of these additional data points, it is assumed WSU s enrollment of over 26,000 students adds significant weight to the WSU/Hospital subdistrict s activity unit density. For both Downtown and WSU/Hospital we consider the activity unit density to be high, and medium for East Central and Harrison Blvd. However, incomplete data means we must simply assume a greater density in the WSU area. Activity Unit Density for the total half-mile study area is 13.6, indicating a greater concentration of both employees and residents within a quarter-mile of the alignment. Figure 39. Activity Unit Density (Residents + Employees / Acre), N/A: Student Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd. WSU / Hospital Source: ESRI, LEHD, and Leland Consulting Group Note: It is important to consider the prevalence of high school students in the Harrison Boulevard subdistrict, just like WSU students in the WSU/Hospital submarket. However, as high school students typically live at home with their parents and interact with surrounding commercial development less frequently than university students, we have omitted them from the activity unit density calculations. 17 See PSRC s Transit Supportive Densities guidance paper: Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 52

53 PLACES/PROXIMITY Walkable areas require a mix of land uses; a balance of people and jobs and interesting places within a walkable distance enhance an area s walkability by putting people near the places they work and shop. For Places we consider amenities and services that employees and residents would frequent, using Walkscore 18 ratings. Walkscore uses the concepts of walk route and block size to calculate the number of amenities within a 30- minute walk of any given address. In general, a site within easy walking distance to a high concentration of amenities will receive a higher walk score. A total of 100 points is possible. 19 Walkscores are highest in Downtown, despite the Frontrunner station location achieving a Somewhat Walkable score (61). Most of East Central and Harrison Blvd. are considered Somewhat Walkable, with the middle section of the corridor dropping below 60 at Harrison and 28 th. The WSU/Hospital subdistrict is considered largely Car- Dependent (except at Harrison and 36 th and the Hospital station locations), which is likely due to the relatively low density of a variety of destinations; WSU and the hospital are monolithic uses that dominate this area. Figure 40. Average Walk Scores by Proposed Station Source: Walk Score and Leland Consulting Group 18 Walkscore measures the walkability of any address, analyzing hundreds of walking routes to nearby amenities. Points are award based on the distance to amenities in each category. Amenities within a five-minute walk (0.25 miles) are given maximum points. No points are awarded for amenities further than a 30-minute walk. 19 A score of indicates a Walker s Paradise where daily errands do not require a car; indicates a Very Walkable area where most errands can be accomplished on foot; indicates a Somewhat Walkable area where some errands can be accomplished on foot; indicates a Car-Dependent area where most errands require a car; and 0-24 indicates a Car-Dependent area where almost all errands require a car. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 53

54 Table 12. Average Walk Scores by Quarter-mile Study Area Area Walk Score Rating Downtown 77 High East Central 65 Medium Harrison Blvd 62 Medium WSU/Hospital 45 Low Ogden City 46 Low South Ogden City 39 Low Washington Terrace 25 Low Source: Walk Score and Leland Consulting Group PHYSICAL FORM Walkable centers and corridors function best when the areas have good physical form. Safe, well-designed spaces make walking enjoyable; small block sizes with more street connections decrease the distance people must walk from one destination to another. As the following graphic shows, block size has a significant effect on the percentage of people using transit, cycling or walking versus driving. Figure 41. Percent of People Using Transit, Cycling, or Walking versus Block Size, 2016 Source: Wanli Fang, 2016, The World Bank: Sustainable Cities The following graphic shows the average block size (in acres) within each quarter-mile subdistrict. Here, the subdistricts with the highest proportion of single-family development have the smallest average block size. For comparative purposes, some of the most walkable urban downtowns include Manhattan, Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco, which have average block sizes of 6.1, 0.9, 3.1, and 3.7 acres, respectively. Salt Lake City has one of the largest average block sizes at 10 acres, which is the same as Ogden, although both have been broken up in some locations. Figure 42. Average Block Size (acres), 2018 Source: WFRC *WSU and McKay-Dee Hospital are large developments that follow a campus-style development pattern. Block sizes are therefore more difficult to accurately measure. Further, internal circulation and walkability is more prevalent in these developments. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 54

55 PARKS Parks deliver a range of community benefits beyond each park s border. Environmentally, they improve air quality and provide stormwater management and heat island mitigation and temperature stabilization. Socially, they help improve public health, community safety, and walkability, enhance community cohesion and provide stress reduction and improved academic performance. And economically, they provide energy conversion and green infrastructure services and improve property values and activity in retail areas. The following table provides a brief overview of the park availability in each corridor quarter-mile subdistrict. While previous maps have shown additional parks within the half-mile study area, we are concerned only with parks within a comfortable walkable distance frequently thought to be no more than a quarter-mile. for example, the boundary of Mt Ogden Park just falls within the half-mile study area but is a full half-mile from Harrison Boulevard. Further WSU s campus contains several open space areas and water features, but few are oriented to the public and are therefore excluded from the following table. Table 13. Park Characteristics per Quarter-mile Subdistrict # Parks Park Acres Acres per Square Mile Score Downtown High East Central Medium Harrison Low WSU/Hospital High* Source: Ogden City, AGRC, ESRI and Leland Consulting Group *Note: assumes additional parks and open space not shown in City data located on WSU campus PEDESTRIAN AND BIKE FACILITIES A full-page map showing crosswalks, sidewalks, bike facilities, trails (existing and proposed) and other internal footways is at the end of this section. In general, Downtown and East Central have the most pedestrian facilities. Downtown is the only subdistrict where crosswalks, sidewalks, and bike infrastructure are prevalent. East Central, despite having the highest over sidewalk density, has one of the lowest crosswalk densities, perhaps because most of the streets are relatively low speed and/or low volume compared to Downtown and Harrison. The Harrison Blvd. subdistrict has the fewest sidewalks and crosswalks. It should be noted that crosswalk density is directly related to other built environment characteristics, such as block size. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 55

56 Total Sidewalk (ft) per Acre # Crosswalks per Acre Figure 43. Pedestrian Facilities per Subdistrict Sidewalk Density (ft./ac) Crosswalk Density (#/10 AC) Downtown East Central Harrison Blvd. WSU/Hospital Source: Ogden City, OpenStreetMap and Leland Consulting Group Table 14. Crosswalks and Sidewalks per Quarter-mile Subdistrict Crosswalk Density (#/10 AC) Total Sidewalks / Paths (ft.) Sidewalk Density (ft./ac)** Trailheads Score Downtown , High East Central , High Harrison Blvd , Low WSU/Hospital* , High 1/2-mi Corridor* , Source: Ogden City, OpenStreetMap and Leland Consulting Group *Files were available for Ogden City only, therefore density calculations are for the area within Ogden City limits only. **Sidewalks include internal pathways, most prevalent in the corridor on WSU s campus. In fact, internal pathways comprise over half of all sidewalk length in the WSU/Hospital area. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 56

57 Figure 44. Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities Source: Ogden City, OpenStreetMap, WFRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 57

58 TOD TYPOLOGIES This section identifies the residential, commercial and office land use forms compatible with the goals of the BRT project. The tables summarize elements of building types to satisfy those criteria, including parking format, number of floors, and unit densities. The unit densities shown are dwelling units per net acre (not including roads, parks, etc.). From a broader perspective, establishing the character of a subdistrict helps determine the types and densities of land uses. Typically, the stronger the market, the more intense and dense the land use. However, certain land use types which are sometimes not considered traditional TOD (such as townhomes) may in fact be transit supportive if care is taken over the design. The following table provides a brief overview of typical TOD characteristics and densities per subdistrict typology. Table 15. TOD Characters and Densities Source: TODResources.org Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 58

59 DEVELOPMENT PROTOTYPES HOUSING For housing, development is mostly categorized based on density and form. Densities greatly impact the required construction type, parking configuration, and other structural elements which all have a direct effect on the overall cost. This means that mid- and high-rise projects cost more per square foot than townhomes and garden apartments. Typically, the higher cost of denser residential projects means they can only be built in areas with higher rents and high demand. TOD is often assumed to simply be mixed-use development. However, many lower density projects can be transit-supportive and improve the walkability of an area if care is taken over the design. In fact, as residential rents are often significantly higher than retail rents and structural differences mean mixed-use construction is higher, mixed-use residential projects are typically less financial feasible than projects that are only residential. As stated above, vertical mixed-use development and equally dense urban housing tends to be more expensive (per square foot of project area), and thus require higher rents to be feasible. Higher costs are caused by a series of cost premiums. The greatest cost premium with a development of any land use type is structured parking (typically, $75 to $100 per square foot compared to $5 to $10 per square foot for surface parking). Other cost premiums include concrete podium/post-tensioned slab; elevators; interior circulation and stairways that must be lighted, heated, and cooled; fire sprinklers and plumbing; higher soft costs including architecture, engineering, legal, and insurance; higher financing costs due to complexity; and more difficult mobilization, (getting construction equipment to the site) particularly for tight, urban sites. The parking podium typically, a one- or two-floor concrete structure that supports several floors of wood construction enables a major increase in development density, but also imposes a significant cost. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 59

60 Table 16. Housing Prototypes Land Use Typical Floors and Density Construction & Parking Examples RESIDENTIAL Small-lot single-family/ duplex 8-20 du/ac 2 to 3 floors Wood frame, Surface or tuck-under garage Townhomes du/ac 2 to 4 floors Wood frame, Surface or tuck-under garage Garden/Low Rise (with or without retail) du/ac 2 to 4 floors Wood frame, Surface/tuck under parking Mid Rise (a) (with or without retail) du/ac 4 to 6 floors Wood frame, (concrete retail), Surface /tuck under Mid Rise (b) (with or without retail) du/ac 4 to 7 floors Wood frame, concrete parking structure: wrap/podium High Rise Residential (with or without retail) 100+ du/ac 8+ floors Wood/steel frame, concrete structure Development examples shown above: Townhomes: The Cove at Pleasant View, Pleasant View;; Davis Townhomes, Layton Garden/Low Rise: Legacy Cottages of Layton, Layton; Aderra, West Haven; Englewood Lofts, North Salt Lake Mid Rise (a): Imagine Jefferson II, Ogden; City Garden Apartments, Ogden Mid Rise (b): Kay s Crossing, Layton; Providence Park Apartments, SLC (alternative: Westminster on the Draw, SLC) High Rise: Avanti at Farmington Station, Farmington; The Regent at City Creek, SLC; The Morton, SLC Due to the higher associated construction costs and deflated rents in much of the corridor, LCG s view is that higher-density projects (such as Mid-rise) are not likely in much of the corridor outside of Downtown or the Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 60

61 western portion of East Central within the next decade, until there is stronger sense of pedestrian-oriented place, and some successful projects medium density have been completed. However, higher density development may be feasible if rents are able to match the associated cost premiums. Exploring niche residential markets such as senior or student housing particularly if additional institutional partners are found may help bridge any financial gaps. For most of the corridor, missing middle is likely the recommended residential building type. Not only would these developments be consistent with the character of existing housing particularly in the East Central and Harrison Boulevard subdistricts but they are more feasible in the short-term and can help build momentum in the market. Further, as the demand modeling demonstrated earlier, significant demand exists for housing affordable to very low-income households (rental, including student-oriented housing) and households earning between $35,000 and $150,000 (both rental and owned). The following figure provides an overview of missing middle housing types. These include multiplexes, townhomes, live/work units, and courtyard apartments. Figure 45. Missing Middle Housing Source: Opticos Several missing middle housing products have been recently built in the Ogden area considerably more units than higher density residential units. One such example is the townhomes at The Meadows at Riverbend, pictured right. Missing middle housing is typically easier to build because it allows a developer to take advantage of economies of scale and requires less initial investment or access to capital (and hence increased feasibility), COMMERCIAL General commercial/retail, and office building types are shown in the following table. Like residential development, real estate developers use the lens of density to categorize commercial development into categories that correspond to density; development types that require structured parking are typically built in the areas that have special features and high demand, as reflected in higher rents. Downtown Ogden is the prime example, and other areas such as near WSU and the hospital are the types of places that could generate higher rents and therefore support higher density development types. While the commercial development prototypes detail certain characteristics, it is important to consider rehab as its own development prototype. This is because, in places such as the corridor, which are already dominated Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 61

62 by commercial development, rehabilitation (which can take the form of re-tenanting, modifications, or adaptive reuse) is likely to be more common that new construction, especially where rents do not warrant new construction. Rehab should be expected, and can contribute to early-phase TOD, if the rehabs are executed in a way that creates a more positive experience for pedestrians on the ground floor, connects to transit on the corridor, and connects to other nearby uses and opportunity development sites. Table 17. Commercial Development Types Land Use OFFICE Low Rise (suburban) Typical Floors and Density 1 to 3 floors Steel and concrete Construction & Parking Wood/steel frame, surface parking Examples Mid Rise (with or without retail) 3 to 7 floors Steel and concrete Steel frame, surface/tuck under, or structured parking High Rise (with or without retail) FAR~ acres Steel and concrete Steel frame, structured parking RETAIL Freestanding / Strip Commercial FAR~0.2 1 story common suburban development Surface parking Main Street Development Examples: 1-3 floors, retail focus with some office. FAR~0.55 Surface parking in rear with on-street in front Low rise office: Intermountain Professional Plaza, Pleasant View; 2155 S Orchard Dr, Bountiful Mid Rise office: Wells Fargo Building, Ogden; Lincoln Building, Ogden Mixed-use office: Block 67 (Proposed), Salt Lake City; 111 Main Office Tower, Salt Lake City Freestanding / Strip commercial: Shadow Point Shopping Center, Syracuse; CFF Building, Salt Lake City Main street retail: Historic 25 th Main Street, Ogden; Main Street, Bountiful (100 S Main St) Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 62

63 FEASIBILITY SUMMARY The following figure provides an overview of the development types Ogden might expect in each of the corridor subdistricts based on the aforementioned market strength. As a reminder, the Downtown subdistrict is the only strong market segment, although the WSU/Hospital subdistrict is on the verge. East Central is an emerging market, while Harrison Boulevard is a limited market. These assumptions are based on market research and other assumptions reported in this analysis but should not be taken to be completely accurate. Table 18. Feasibility by Market Strength TOD DEVELOPMENT PROFILES The following profiles are examples of the type of TOD which can be expected in certain markets. Emerging and Strong Markets: 200 CityView Apartments, Provo Senior City in Federal Way, Washington Expected to deliver to the Provo market in May 2018, the 159-unit 200 CityView Apartments offers studios, onebedroom and two-bedroom apartments ranging from $1.25 and $1.74. Given the rents are significantly above average for the region and the delivery date is likely to coincide with the opening of the new BRT line in the region, it is likely the property is seeing a significant rent bump due to its urban location and proximity to transit. Senior City in Federal Way, Washington is a mixed-use transit-oriented development project which include senior apartments and office. The project shares a parking garage with the adjacent transit center, an effective practice to mitigate many of the expensive parking costs associated with higher density developments. Murray Office (300 West & Vine St) While still under construction (expected to deliver August 2018), this four-story office building shows how developments are generally more feasible when parking requirements are significantly lower. Located within walking distance of Murray Central MAX Station, asking rents are more typical of downtown office space. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 63

64 Limited Markets: Elgrin Place Townhomes, Draper Located within walking distance of Kimball s Lane TRAX Station in Draper, Elgrin Townhomes offers 30 units on about 2 acres of land. The townhomes were completed in 2016 and offer access to open space, hiking trails, retailers, restaurants and other amenities. The area demonstrates the potential transit supportiveness of lower density land uses in weaker market areas. Sources: Costar PARKING Parking plays an important role in the success of cities, communities and places as well as in the development of mixed-use projects and sustainable transportation. Parking supply and pricing typically have a direct impact on the ability to create compact, healthy communities. Excess supply (overparking) can not only be detrimental to the overall multimodal effectiveness of an area 20 but will often render a project infeasible due to high and often unnecessary costs. TOD PARKING NEEDS Striking a balance between parking supply and development is a crucial challenge in developing the character of TOD. Right-sizing parking for TOD necessitates a multipronged approach to understanding the existing and projected parking utilization and available supply in and around a TOD project area, as well as the projected demand for new parking once the project is completed. Conducting a diagnostic parking study that is comprehensive and aligned with mobility choices is essential to this effort. Parking best practices include: Maximum limits and transferable parking entitlements, Shared parking, In-lieu parking fees and centralized parking, and Increased availability by decreasing demand (e.g. through car sharing, transit subsidies and improvements, pedestrian and bicycle amenities, and vehicle trip reduction programs). AVS AND THE FUTURE OF PARKING Parking remains the primary concern in almost all new developments, but this is likely to change very soon. Parking demands are likely to diminish significantly, particularly in urban cores, thanks to the rapid development of autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies, as well as ever-improving transit, bicycle, and pedestrian infrastructure and adoption. While existing TODs typically require less parking than traditional developments, it is emerging technologies that will likely soon have the biggest impact on the way we park. 20 Too much parking at residential properties correlates with: higher ownership rates, more vehicle miles traveled (and reduced transit ridership), more congestion, more carbon emissions, and higher housing costs. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 64

65 Autonomous vehicles will greatly reduce the need to park on site, 21 particularly if AVs move towards an even partial model of shared vehicles (i.e. Lyft, Uber, etc.). Most inner-city parking will likely move to the outer edges of the urban core where land is cheaper. This change would make available a significant amount of land for redevelopment (parking is the single largest land use in most cities), hence dramatically increasing land supply and decreasing land values. In addition, as parking needs diminish, and parking regulations move to requiring less parking, constructions costs will also drop dramatically. However, if cities continue to require excessive parking the effects will be detrimental and far reaching. Parking structures and surface lots may end up redundant and, in some cases, unusable, especially if those structures are sloped. If new parking structures must be built to address an area s needs, they should be built in a way that, someday down the road, they can be can be converted into residences, offices, retail or other uses. These convertible garages require flat floor plates, higher floor-to-ceiling heights (at least 10 feet), and greater reinforcement to support all the accumulated components in a house or office. Even subterranean parking could have a future as storage or a data center. With that said, these conversions are expensive and challenging, so any measures that cities can take to improve utilization of existing parking or reduce parking requirements would likely reduce future vacancies. PRELIMINARY OPPORTUNITY AREAS Based on the data and information in this market analysis, as well as information collected from stakeholder interviews with prominent developers in the region, city officials, and institutional representatives, LCG has identified several preliminary opportunity areas. Specifically, these opportunity areas were identified based on the following selection criteria. Large vacant or underutilized. Here, we define underutilized as parcels with: o Improvement-to-land ratios less than 0.5 (and to a lesser extent 1.5), o Floor-area-ratios less than 0.2, or o Buildings with high vacancy. Underutilized parcels with contiguous or public ownership. Parcels within areas identified as project areas by the Ogden City Redevelopment Agency (both existing and planned). Specific properties with development interest (private or public). The identification of opportunity sites allows various stakeholders to quickly direct resources and attention to catalyst activity on the corridor. These sites may be close to key origins, destinations, institutions, activity centers, or areas that display prime redevelopment opportunities (including strong/emerging market strength and/or high demand, strong subdistrict characteristics, and land availability, as presented throughout this report). 21 Studies have shown this dropping down to as low as only needing 10-15% of current parking spaces (per GIT and ITF- OECD). Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 65

66 REDEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC AREAS Redevelopment Areas (RDAs) and Community Reinvestments Areas (CRAs) freeze the tax valuation for all taxable properties inside a swath of land that s been targeted by the city for reinvestment. 22 These areas provide financial incentives that can greatly improve the feasibility of new development and are therefore important to consider when identifying opportunity sites. The corridor contains seven active and planned or proposed RDAs and CRAs most of which are clustered downtown. Adams CRA (proposed): The Adams CRA comprises a 150-acre section of Ogden between 23rd and 28th streets from Washington Boulevard to Jefferson Avenue an area with a mix of commercial retail and residential buildings and a high number of historic properties. More than $124 million worth of construction projects are a part of the plan, including the renovation of the Peery Apartments, the Bigelow Hotel and its parking garage, the construction of new infill housing, the creation of a cultural or arts district and the restoration of the old Wells Fargo/First Security Bank building. The $21 million Wells Fargo restoration would turn the building into a mixed-use facility with 70 residential units, 16,000 square-feet of commercial space and 82,000-square-feet of retail space. The city will look to consolidate and integrate privately owned parking lots, working to make them accessible to the public and maximizing land use, Gramercy CRA (proposed): Oak Den continues to be a priority for the city and the area s first housing development, a 21-home subdivision at the site of the old Dee Elementary School, is set to begin this year. Plans for a hotel and senior center are also being considered. Continental Bakery CRA (proposed): Home to the Flowers Foods/Hostess factory, the proposed CRA s boundaries are unknown. However, the Ogden Redevelopment Agency owns the old Wonder Bread factory and has developed several redevelopment concepts. The development would likely include space for condos, rental units, retail and office buildings. The city owns 7 acres of the block and the rest of the land there is owned by the Utah state court system. East Washington URA: The East Washington Urban Renewal Project Area was established in 2010 and encompasses a four-block area on the east side of Washington Blvd. between 20 th and 24 th streets. The Area was established to facilitate primarily retail development in Ogden s downtown business district. Residential development may be assisted as opportunities arise. CBD Mall RDA (expires 2026): Created to facilitate the development of the Ogden City Mall. The site was approved in 2004 for a new mixed-use development now known as The Junction. The area now has few developable areas available. Kiesel CDA (expires 2025): Created in 2015 and encompasses the Lindquist Field block from 23rd Street and includes the back side of 25th Street between Kiesel Avenue and Wall Avenue. The purpose of the Kiesel CDA is to help revitalize the area s old and historic structures, reactivating secondary streets like Grant, Lincoln, and Kiesel Ave with vibrant residential, commercial, and retail uses. Wall Ave RDA (expiring this year): Created in 2000 to facilitate and encourage development of (1) the former Shupe Williams Candy Company building located on the corner of 26th Street and Wall Avenue, (2) the Wall Avenue corridor between 25th and 29th Streets and (3) the undeveloped property on the south side of the 100 block of Historic 25th Street. 22 Both CRAs and URAs are both designed to encourage redevelopment, but the two reinvestment tools are separated by one major distinction: the CRA does not authorize the use of eminent domain. For a specified period (or up to a certain dollar amount), future increases in property tax revenue are used in the redevelopment effort, a mechanism called Tax Increment Financing (TIF). The TIF money is often offered to developers as an incentive to build and it can also be used for things like street and utility improvements, hazardous waste removal, property acquisition and the demolition of blighted buildings. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 66

67 Figure 46. Economic and Redevelopment Areas Source: AGRC, Weber County, WFRC, TIGER, Ogden City and Leland Consulting Group OPPORTUNITY SITES Opportunities generally lie at either end of the corridor, in Downtown and near/in Weber State University. Few opportunities are present along Harrison as institutional (school) and single-family residential development lines the road to the east. There are limited opportunity areas immediately adjacent to the BRT alignment, but significantly more within a two-block radius, especially downtown. In the Downtown subdistrict, many sites have already been identified by the Ogden City Redevelopment Agency, such as the Continental Bakery factory currently the subject of a proposed redevelopment area. Many more sites are publicly-owned (for example, by UTA, Ogden City, etc.), which allows for greater flexibility and other development incentives. Excluded from the opportunity site map is the land to the west of Wall Avenue, currently owned by Union Pacific Railroad, which presents tremendous growth potential for downtown Ogden. In East Central, the primary opportunity area is the Rite Aid block currently the subject of a proposed redevelopment area (Gramercy). Opportunities are limited to the east due to limited land supply and the presence of single-family neighborhoods. Opportunities in the East Central and Harrison subdistricts are likely to be limited to missing middle housing and small commercial rehab projects (including townhomes, multiplexes, and cottage housing). In the Harrison Boulevard subdistrict, the only opportunity area is likely the strip mall site and the land behind it. As noted already, development in the near- and medium-term would be very difficult to the east of Harrison. Some smaller commercial development may experience rehabilitation projects, but land supply is limited for significant new development. In the WSU/Hospital subdistrict, significant tracts of vacant land mean that opportunity sites are prevalent. However, most of these are located Weber State University s campus and were identified in their recent Campus Master Plan identified several locations for new development. Some additional tracts were identified to the west of Harrison which would be open to private development, likely neighborhood-oriented commercial, medicalrelated office and/or student housing. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 67

68 It should be stressed that the identification of these opportunity areas was data driven and do not reflect development interest other than that shown by the Redevelopment Agency or Weber State University. The following map provides an overview of these preliminary opportunity site areas. Figure 47. Preliminary Opportunity Site Areas Source: AGRC, Weber County, WFRC, TIGER, Ogden City and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 68

69 CASE STUDIES BRT is often seen as an economically powerful transit option, providing many of the economic and transit benefits of a light rail system at a lower price tag. In this section, we identify some of these benefits in three district case studies to help establish some possible outcomes and lessons for Ogden. In Eugene, OR, Fort Collins, CO, and Cleveland, OH, the introduction of BRT has had a clear impact on the market, either through increased development activity, transitioning land uses, and/or higher land values and tax revenues. Where applicable, we acknowledge which aspects of each case study are comparable for Ogden. Some of the primary economic benefits realized by proximity to BRT systems are listed below. Within a half-mile radius of the BRT route, BRT can play a positive role in attracting specific types of employment, namely Information, Finance, Real Estate, Management of Companies, Retail Trade, Education, and Administrative Waste Management Services. In some cities, BRT (mainly heavy BRT) has been very instrumental in the growth of TOD. Property values adjacent to BRT increase in some but not all instances. The positive impact of BRT is strongly related to public perception of system characteristics such as permanence, frequency, speed, security, etc. 23 EUGENE, OREGON EMERALD EXPRESS The Emerald Express (EmX) was implemented in three phases. The first phase opened in 2010, linking downtown Eugene with downtown Springfield along Franklin Boulevard. The second phase opened in 2010, and extended EmX northward to include a major shopping center, a regional employment area, as well as a new regional medical center. The third phase opened in September 2017 and extended the line to West Eugene. Economic Development Significant new construction has occurred along the corridor since BRT was built. Since 2010, most new development has been apartments (mixed-use, market-rate and student housing), although three hotels and two offices have also been built downtown. In the decade prior to 2010 there had been very little development of any kind. One of these office buildings, the Woolworth Building, is pictured below and features retail on the ground floor. The Woolworth Building is located less than one block from an EmX bus station. Further, a recent report called Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on Surrounding Residential Property Values found that the EmX line had a statistically significant positive impact on property values, which stands to benefit the community as a whole: the related taxes can be used to pay for transportation and other infrastructure, further enhancing the economic development of the community. 24 These related benefits, referred to as marginal effects, have a positive impact on the livability of the community. This research shows that the closer a residence is to a BRT station, the greater the marginal effects on its estimated sale price. 23 From Utpal Dutta and Jeff Henze (2015), Economic Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit in Southeast Michigan, University of Detroit. URL: 24 From a NITC study, led by Victoria Perk and Martin Catalá of the Center for Urban Transportation Research at the University of South Florida, in partnership with Lane Transit District. Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 69

70 Woolworth Office Building (left), Emerald Express BRT (right) Similarities to Ogden The EmX BRT system connect major employment and retail hubs to downtown Eugene and beyond. During the time of construction (and present day), the density of people and employees typically deemed to be transitsupportive was not present on the corridor outside of the downtown area. However, Eugene and the wider area is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, which proved to be sufficient cause to implement the transit system. Similarly, much of the Ogden corridor would currently be below these transit-supportive density thresholds, yet projected growth is potentially high enough to get a high-capacity transit system in place now. FORT COLLINS, COLORADO MAX (THE MASON CORRIDOR) The Mason Corridor is a five mile north-south byway within the city of Fort Collins which extends from Cherry Street on the north to south of Harmony Road. The corridor is centered along the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway property, located a few hundred feet west of College Avenue (US 287). The Mason Corridor includes a new bicycle and pedestrian trail as well as a planned Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in a fixed guideway for most of the corridor. The Mason Corridor links major destinations and activity centers along the corridor including Downtown Fort Collins, Colorado State University, and several retail areas. Future regional transit connections will link to the Mason Corridor. Economic Development Most of the economic development impacts from the Mason Corridor MAX BRT line have come in the form of housing investments. Within a half-mile of the corridor, 14 new multifamily projects have either been built since 2010 or are proposed. In contrast, only five multifamily projects were built in the four decades prior to Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 70

71 Old Town Flats (left), MAX BRT (right) Similarities to Ogden The Mason Corridor MAX provides an integral connection between several primary employment hubs. In fact, nearly 60 percent of all Fort Collins jobs are located within one-mile of the Mason Corridor. While employment in the Ogden BRT corridor is not as pronounced, it does serve two of the City s primary employment hubs. The outdoor recreation industry is prevalent in Fort Collins, and the Mason Corridor project has given high priority to future regional connections, which includes trail systems. Future development therefore has the potential to focus on trail-oriented development and leverage these unique assets. Last, the lack of new development in the years before BRT was implemented meant that comparable projects were limited in the City of Fort Collins. BRT (and an improving overall market) provided the missing pieces to help catalyze development in the City. CLEVELAND, OHIO HEALTHLINE Euclid Avenue is a corridor with a varied history. Known as Millionaires Row at the beginning of the 1900s it fell on hard times as Cleveland s industrial base declined and by the early 2000s vacant properties proliferated the corridor. However, the fact that it was a main thoroughfare with high bus ridership and two of the region s major employment centers, Downtown and University Circle (a medical and cultural hub), made Euclid prime for transit. In the late 90s, bus rapid transit had become a recognized transit mode. Due to extensive transportation needs, technical and financial considerations, the city decided to move forward with BRT but make it as rail-like as possible. 25 Economic Development According to the Urban Land Institute, the corridor has attracted $5.8 billion in investment since the BRT line opened in 2008 ($3.3B for new construction and $2.5B for building rehab) with a total of more than 110 projects. Joe Calabrese, CEO of Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority said he started fielding calls from developers before the Healthline began operating. He says there is new construction happening in areas of 25 City and County of Denver, Colfax Economic Development Analysis Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 71

72 Midtown that hadn t seen construction in years. Many developers have said they invested in Euclid Avenue because of the Healthline. 26 Notable Impacts include: almost eight million square feet of new commercial development; more than 5,000 housing units; 13,000 new jobs; $62 million generated in local taxes; increased property values; and transitioning of uses (e.g., used car lots to office). Uptown Apartments (left), Healthline BRT (right) While new development has been prevalent in downtown Cleveland, the most notable impacts of the Healthline BRT has been elsewhere on the corridor that hadn t seen construction in many years. For example, the area in the north of the corridor near Case Western Reserve University had not seen a single new multifamily property built between 1990 and 2010, and then only three in the two decades prior. Since 2010, eight have been built, including one affordable housing project, two student housing projects, and five market-rate apartments. Most of these new projects replaced vacant lots, parking lots, and low-density suburban office and retail space. The area is now an active, bustling main street with active ground floor space. One of these market-rate apartments is the Uptown Apartments, a 157-unit mixed-use residential development built in Uptown Apartments features a Healthline bus stop immediately outside (pictured). Rent averages $1.93 per square foot, which is about 20 percent higher than the downtown average for market-rate multifamily properties and 66 percent higher than the area average within a two-mile radius. Similarities to Ogden The Healthline connects two major employment centers the CBD and Cleveland State University to University Hospital and Case Western Reserve University. Between these two centers is a less developed midsection which has struggled in the past. Like the Ogden corridor, new development outside of downtown had been sparse and the corridor was dominated by underutilized lots and strip commercial centers. However, the BRT catalyze new development in these areas. 26 City and County of Denver, Colfax Economic Development Analysis Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 72

73 Table 19. Case Study Summaries Name Emerald Express (EmX) MAX (Mason Corridor) HealthLine (Euclid Avenue) Location Eugene-Springfield, Oregon Fort Collins, Colorado Cleveland, Ohio Type BRT BRT BRT Transit Agency Lane Transit District Transfort Greater Cleveland Regional Transportation Authority Year Built Phased: 2007, 2011, Length/ Stations Cost The Green Line (first line) is 4 miles with 10 stations. $24.6 million ($6.15 million per mile) Description Dedicated bus lanes for 60 percent of the route connects Eugene to Springfield. Vehicles are given signal priority and have doors on either side (allowing for loading on both sides of the platform). Ridership Impacts Daily corridor ridership doubled in the first 17 months 5 miles (3 miles of which is a dedicated guideway), with 12 stations $87 million, which included new buses, new technologies, construction, transit center, pedestrian infrastructure and a maintenance facility. The Mason Corridor links major destinations and activity centers along the corridor including the Downtown commercial, cultural, and business centers, Colorado State University, Foothills Mall, and South College retail areas. Daily corridor ridership increased by 75 percent in the first six months 7.1 miles (plus 2.3 miles of busoriented street improvements in a "transit zone" within downtown Cleveland), with 36 stations. $197 million ($17.9 million per mile), including a baseline cost of $168 million and $29 million in streetscaping elements funded separately. Project included reconstruction of Euclid Avenue from building edge to building edge, from downtown to University Circle, with special rapid-boarding bus stops located in a center median, priority timing for buses at intersections, and fresh landscaping and streetscapes. Carries 14,300 trips on an average weekday compared to 8,900 on the line it replaced. Economic Impacts "The EmX line had a statistically significant positive impact on property values, which stands to benefit the community as a whole: the related taxes can be used to pay for transportation and other infrastructure, further enhancing the economic development of the community. The corridor has seen at least $100 million in investment since implementation, and 10% job growth within 0.25 miles of the corridor compared to -5% job growth citywide. Immediate pipeline of new residential construction totaling $31 million and commercial remodels and improvements totaling $7.7 million. Total economic impact estimated at $150 million and 1,000 new jobs. $5.8 billion in new investment resulting from the Euclid Avenue streetscape and BRT project ($2.5 renovations and expansion; $3.3 recently completed, underway, or planned development), of which $2.7 was private and $3.1 was public and nonprofit. The number of jobs nearly doubled (from 36,850 to 72,080) along the corridor from 2008 to In 2002, only one-third of corridor jobs paid over $40,000 per year. In 2014, 56 percent of all jobs paid over $40, Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 73

74 APPENDIX Figure 48. Regional Multifamily Development Source: Costar, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 74

75 Figure 49. Regional Retail Development Source: Costar, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 75

76 Figure 50. Regional Office Development Source: Costar, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 76

77 Figure 51. Development Activity, Other Development Types Source: Costar, AGRC, TIGER, and Leland Consulting Group Ogden Onboard Market Analysis & TOD 77