David Cowans Group Chief Executive Places for People

Transcription

1 David Cowans Group Chief Executive Places for People

2 THE CHANGING HOUSING LANDSCAPE David Cowans Group Chief Executive Places for People

3 OPERATING ENVIRONMENT Economy in slow recovery Housing market variations Housing demand still outstripping supply State retrenching Localism/Subsidiarity Flexibility and positioning Capital markets

4 Dwelling completions UK DWELLING COMPLETIONS 450, , , ,000 Local Authorities Housing Associations Private Enterprise 250, , , ,000 50, Source : DCLG Housing Statistics, Table 241, permanent dwellings completed by tenure United Kingdom, historical calendar year series.

5 HOUSING TENURE Trends in Tenure (England)1980 to 2013/14 Buying with a mortgage Private renters Social renters??2018?? Source: English Housing Survey

6 HOUSING TENURE Households aged 25-34, by tenure, 2003/4 to 2013/14 (England) Source : English Housing Survey, 2014

7 GOVERNMENT POLICY Right to Buy extension Minus 1% rent settlement Welfare cuts Regulation

8 CHANGING INCOMES % of employees on minimum wage % of employees on minimum wage? By 2020 predicted 11% of employees on minimum wage Beyond 2025? What might it look like?

9 CHANGING LANDSCAPE Social value change Income change Behavioural change What s the market impact of this?

10 Buyers cash shortfall as a % of purchase price Market sale: What is affordable? 2 person household, ave 3.5 income loan, ave house prices 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% below zero 0-20% 20% to 30% 30% plus Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

11 Buyers cash shortfall as a % of purchase price Starter Homes: discounted house price 2 person household ave 3.5 loan to income ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% below zero 0-20% 20% to 30% 30% plus Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

12 Buyers Cash Shortfall as a % of purchase price Shared Ownership: 2 person household ave 3.5 loan to income ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% below zero 0-20% 20% to 30% 30% plus Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

13 Proportion of boroughs What ownership offer can 2 person ave income households afford? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Market Starter Shared Can't Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

14 Is Shared ownership in the right locations? Things to think about Absorption rates? Blend of tenure offers tailored to market segments Alternatives if market falls Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

15 THE DELIVERY CHALLENGE Funding Land supply and planning Scale and infrastructure

16 OUR EVOLUTION Moving into the PRS & outright sale Placemaking focussed on larger scale development Building, placemaking and management businesses to deliver whole places Structured relationships to deliver more and larger activities Housing provision and neighbourhood regeneration

17 INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS

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19 Products Private Rental Management Housing Management Care and Support & Services Support Services HR IM&T Health & Safety Procurement Finance Treasury Leasehold Management Repairs and Maintenance Group Activities Placemaking and Regeneration Neighbourhood and Economic Regeneration Financial Services Asset Management Leisure Management Development and Construction

20 Affordable rent Market rent Starter homes Shared equity Shared ownership Supported housing Buy outright Staircasing Equity release A range of requirements A range of solutions

21 OUR APPROACH Development Services Masterplanning Partnerships & JVs Facilities Management Ensuring successful places and enabling people to reach their potential Place management Property management Asset management Individual Support Leisure Facilities Sales Regeneration Access Affordable rent Rent conversion Starter homes Market rent

22 OUR STRATEGY Commercial methods to deliver social outcomes Long-term placemaking Quality mixed-use, mixed-tenure places Offer a range of products and services End-to-end offer / supply chain Improvement on previous best

23 BROOKLANDS, MILTON KEYNES

24 SMITH S DOCK, NORTH TYNESIDE

25 GILSTON PARK ESTATE, EAST HERTFORDSHIRE 1.5bn investment 450m infrastructure Up to 10,000 homes Supports economic growth & regeneration Potential of 540m in GVA Potential to create 27,500 direct and indirect jobs

26 EAST WICK AND SWEETWATER, OLYMPIC PARK

27 The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Alan Curtis Kay