The State of the Greater Phoenix Market

Transcription

1 The State of the Greater Phoenix Market January 12, 2012 Michael Orr

2 Preliminary Annual Statistics Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Sales - All Types 99,940 89,443 91,060 58,388 53,061 Sales - Single Family Detached 84,598 75,204 80,313 51,409 43,062 Sales - Apartment Style 4,981 5,049 3,412 2,089 2,832 Sales - Townhouse 6,834 5,787 4,699 2,841 4,250 Annual Average $/SF - Sales $81.58 $87.86 $87.61 $ $ Appreciation - Annual $/SF -7.1% 0.3% -29.3% -29.1% -4.6% Appreciation - Annual Median $ -10.7% -1.5% -33.9% -24.4% -2.9% Average Sale Price % List 96.11% 95.68% 95.91% 95.36% 95.93% Dollar Volume $15,663M $15,194M $15,380M $14,406M $17,882M Annual Average Price - Sales $156,729 $170,251 $168,898 $246,731 $336,540 Annual Median Price - Sales $110,000 $123,120 $125,000 $189,000 $250,000 Sales - Lender Owned 42,222 40,118 52,685 25,038 2,262 Sales - Short Sales & Pre-foreclosures 23,373 19,047 12,603 3, Sales - Normal 34,345 30,078 25,772 29,619 50,331 Maricopa County Foreclosure Notices 56,996 84, ,341 79,227 30,170 Trustee Sales 44,852 52,391 50,584 40,433 10,000 Trustee Sales to Beneficiary 29,513 41,506 43,377 38,660 9,236 Trustee Sales to Third Party 15,339 10,885 7,207 1, Total Sales 94,471 86,735 92,586 70,226 89,246 New Home Sales 5,851 6,297 8,231 14,639 29,886 Resales 88,100 80,438 84,355 55,587 59,

3 Preliminary Annual Statistics Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Sales - All Types 99,940 89,443 91,060 58,388 53,061 Sales - Single Family Detached 84,598 75,204 80,313 51,409 43,062 Sales - Apartment Style 4,981 5,049 3,412 2,089 2,832 Sales - Townhouse 6,834 5,787 4,699 2,841 4,250 Annual Average $/SF - Sales $81.58 $87.86 $87.61 $ $ Appreciation - Annual $/SF -7.1% 0.3% -29.3% -29.1% -4.6% Appreciation - Annual Median $ -10.7% -1.5% -33.9% -24.4% -2.9% Average Sale Price % List 96.11% 95.68% 95.91% 95.36% 95.93% Dollar Volume $15,663M $15,194M $15,380M $14,406M $17,882M Annual Average Price - Sales $156,729 $170,251 $168,898 $246,731 $336,540 Annual Median Price - Sales $110,000 $123,120 $125,000 $189,000 $250,000 Sales - Lender Owned 42,222 40,118 52,685 25,038 2,262 Sales - Short Sales & Pre-foreclosures 23,373 19,047 12,603 3, Sales - Normal 34,345 30,078 25,772 29,619 50,331 Maricopa County Foreclosure Notices 56,996 84, ,341 79,227 30,170 Trustee Sales 44,852 52,391 50,584 40,433 10,000 Trustee Sales to Beneficiary 29,513 41,506 43,377 38,660 9,236 Trustee Sales to Third Party 15,339 10,885 7,207 1, Total Sales 94,471 86,735 92,586 70,226 89,246 New Home Sales 5,851 6,297 8,231 14,639 29,886 Resales 88,100 80,438 84,355 55,587 59,

4 Preliminary Annual Statistics Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Sales - All Types 99,940 89,443 91,060 58,388 53,061 Sales - Single Family Detached 84,598 75,204 80,313 51,409 43,062 Sales - Apartment Style 4,981 5,049 3,412 2,089 2,832 Sales - Townhouse 6,834 5,787 4,699 2,841 4,250 Annual Average $/SF - Sales $81.58 $87.86 $87.61 $ $ Appreciation - Annual $/SF -7.1% 0.3% -29.3% -29.1% -4.6% Appreciation - Annual Median $ -10.7% -1.5% -33.9% -24.4% -2.9% Average Sale Price % List 96.11% 95.68% 95.91% 95.36% 95.93% Dollar Volume $15,663M $15,194M $15,380M $14,406M $17,882M Annual Average Price - Sales $156,729 $170,251 $168,898 $246,731 $336,540 Annual Median Price - Sales $110,000 $123,120 $125,000 $189,000 $250,000 Sales - Lender Owned 42,222 40,118 52,685 25,038 2,262 Sales - Short Sales & Pre-foreclosures 23,373 19,047 12,603 3, Sales - Normal 34,345 30,078 25,772 29,619 50,331 Maricopa County Foreclosure Notices 56,996 84, ,341 79,227 30,170 Trustee Sales 44,852 52,391 50,584 40,433 10,000 Trustee Sales to Beneficiary 29,513 41,506 43,377 38,660 9,236 Trustee Sales to Third Party 15,339 10,885 7,207 1, Total Sales 94,471 86,735 92,586 70,226 89,246 New Home Sales 5,851 6,297 8,231 14,639 29,886 Resales 88,100 80,438 84,355 55,587 59,

5 Preliminary Annual Statistics Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Sales - All Types 99,940 89,443 91,060 58,388 53,061 Sales - Single Family Detached 84,598 75,204 80,313 51,409 43,062 Sales - Apartment Style 4,981 5,049 3,412 2,089 2,832 Sales - Townhouse 6,834 5,787 4,699 2,841 4,250 Annual Average $/SF - Sales $81.58 $87.86 $87.61 $ $ Appreciation - Annual $/SF -7.1% 0.3% -29.3% -29.1% -4.6% Appreciation - Annual Median $ -10.7% -1.5% -33.9% -24.4% -2.9% Average Sale Price % List 96.11% 95.68% 95.91% 95.36% 95.93% Dollar Volume $15,663M $15,194M $15,380M $14,406M $17,882M Annual Average Price - Sales $156,729 $170,251 $168,898 $246,731 $336,540 Annual Median Price - Sales $110,000 $123,120 $125,000 $189,000 $250,000 Sales - Lender Owned 42,222 40,118 52,685 25,038 2,262 Sales - Short Sales & Pre-foreclosures 23,373 19,047 12,603 3, Sales - Normal 34,345 30,078 25,772 29,619 50,331 Maricopa County Foreclosure Notices 56,996 84, ,341 79,227 30,170 Trustee Sales 44,852 52,391 50,584 40,433 10,000 Trustee Sales to Beneficiary 29,513 41,506 43,377 38,660 9,236 Trustee Sales to Third Party 15,339 10,885 7,207 1, Total Sales 94,471 86,735 92,586 70,226 89,246 New Home Sales 5,851 6,297 8,231 14,639 29,886 Resales 88,100 80,438 84,355 55,587 59,

6 The Market Cycle Euphoria Ehil Exhilaration Enthusiasm Optimism Unease Denial Pessimism Panic Capitulation Despair Enthusiasm Optimism Relief Hope Skepticism

7 The Market Cycle Euphoria Ehil Exhilaration Enthusiasm Optimism Unease Denial Enthusiasm Pessimism Optimism Panic Relief Skepticism Hope Capitulation Skepticism Despair Despair

8 It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble It's what you know for sure that just ain't so Josh Billings (a.k.a. Henry Wheeler Shaw) According to The Quote Verifier

9 What People know for sure A glut of foreclosed homes overhangs the market Shadow inventory is big, scary and out to get you!!! A new wave of foreclosures is coming Home prices are still declining i Short sales take forever and rarely succeed Renting is cheaper than buying a home

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11 HUD Listings down 92% REO Listings down 73% Short Sales down 76% Normal Listings down 26%

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14 Ah yes, but Ah yes, but What about the foreclosures still pending?

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16 Why is the Shadow Inventory Shrinking?

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18 Government Imposed Moratorium Bank of America Moratorium

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20 Purchased by Third Party Reverted to Beneficiary New REOs 1,098

21 Ah yes, but Ah yes, but What about the delinquent loans that haven t received a notice yet?

22 12.4% 7.4% 30+ days late but no foreclosure notice

23 Arizona Ranking February 2010 November 2011 Non current home loans Non current home loans # 3 (after FL, NV) # 27 Late but not in foreclosure Late but not in foreclosure # 6 (FL, NV, GA, MS, MI) # 29 In foreclosure In foreclosure # 4 (FL, NV, NJ) #

24 Arizona home loan delinquency is down 34.4% 4% This is more than any other state! Source: Lender Processing Services Mortgage Monitor

25 Title Versus Lien Theory

26 Greater Phoenix All Types

27 2012

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29 A Frequently Asked Question from the Well Informed Supply is way down So why aren t prices rising?

30 Days Inventory Supply = Active Listing Count Demand = Average Daily Sales over Last Year Days Inventory = Supply / Demand An excellent measure of market health h

31 Active Listings include AWC NORMAL 90

32 Active Listings include AWC NORMAL Excluding AWC = 66

33 The Coiled dspring Theory The longer it takes before prices respond, the larger the response is likely to be

34 Everything

35 Normal Sales only

36 Short Sales only

37 REO only

38 single family only

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