Report on Nevada s Housing Market

Transcription

1 June 214 Report on Nevada s Housing Market This series of reports on Nevada s Housing Market is co-presented by the Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and the State of Nevada Department of Business & Industry. These reports provide monthly updates on housing market trends for stakeholders throughout Nevada, which will be crucial as Nevada embarks on a path of housing recovery. Funding provided by the Housing Data and Index Project, a joint initiative of:

2 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Table of Contents Nevada Statewide Trends... 2 Northern Trends.. 1 Southern Trends.. 14 Rural Trends Page 1

3 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends Population: 2,79,136 in 213 Housing Units: 1,186,879 in 213 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts Page 2

4 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends Nevada continues to see less distress in the housing market as traditional home sales continue to increase. Throughout the entire second quarter of 214, Nevada saw consistent increases in new and existing home sales. The share of homes with a mortgage underwater is now 26.3 percent - 3 percentage points lower than last quarter. Humboldt Elko Nevada, along with the rest of the United States, saw a large drop in housing affordability. This was caused by median income not increasing this quarter and home prices seeing significant increases. Affordability in Reno and Las Vegas each dropped by about 1 percentage points this quarter and the United States only dropped by about 3 percentage points this quarter. Housing affordability in Reno and Las Vegas is now nearing the National Association of Home Builders benchmark where half the working class can afford half the homes sold on the market. Washoe Storey Carson City Lyon Douglas Pershing Churchill Mineral Lander Eureka White Pine Single-Family Home Sales* June 214 M2M Change Y2Y Change New % -39.% Existing % -18.8% Distress Share 18.1% -7.5% -34.8% Residential Construction Total Starts Single-Family Multifamily Average Single-Family Sales Price* New $31, % +11.% Existing $211, % +7.5% Distress $164, % +4.3% Esmeralda Nye Clark Lincoln Source: Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Data and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three-Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 3

5 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends Single-Family Home Prices Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Home Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) Date (January 2 - June 214) Existing New Existing New The Single-Family Home Prices figure above shows the three-month moving average price of existing homes and new homes. Existing homes are single family homes that were exchanged from one private owner to another. This includes homes sold by real estate agents, owners, and lenders. New homes are single family homes that were exchanged from a builder to a private owner. The other figure, Single-Family Homes Sales, illustrates the frequency of those transactions for both existing and new homes. A seasonal pattern is obvious in the Single-Family Home Sales graph. In Nevada, each year, there are more home sales during the summer than during the winter. Page 4

6 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends Housing Affordability Clark Listings in Hundreds Date (1 Quarter 2-2 Quarter 214) 211 Equilibrium 212 Las Vegas Reno Nation Source: National Association of Home Builders Note: Series denote the proportion of home sales affordable at median income Nevada Single-Family Homes for Sale Date (January 27 - June 214) Clark Washoe Listings in Hundreds Washoe Source: Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors and UNR's Center for Regional Studies The Housing Affordability figure shows the proportion of home sales that could have been bought by borrowers earning at least the local median income, with a conventional loan. It is an index developed by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). As a benchmark, half of the working class should be able to afford half of the homes sold when the market is in equilibrium. The other figure, Nevada Single-Family Homes for Sale, shows the number of homes available for sale at the end of the month. These numbers include new listings that are awaiting a purchasing contract. Furthermore, they include homes that are under contract and about to sell. Page 5

7 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends Single-Family Distress Sales Share of Distress Sales Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) REO Sales Short Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) Single-Family Distress Sales is a figure that displays the monthly number of Real Estate Owned (REO) sales and short sales. REO sales are homes that have been repossessed by lenders through foreclosure and then sold in the market. Short sales, on the other hand, are homes that were sold for an amount below the owner s outstanding mortgage balance. Both numbers are three-month weighted moving averages. The other figure, Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales, tracks the proportion of home sales (including new home sales) that were REO sales or short sales. A healthy proportion for a housing market is close to zero. Page 6

8 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends 1 Foreclosure Trends 1 Equity in Quarter 2, 214 (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) Percent Date (January 2 - June 214) Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory Positive Equity Negative Equity The Foreclosure Trends figure includes two series: the 9+ Days Delinquent series and the Foreclosure Inventory series. The 9+ Days Delinquent series consists of the number of homes that are secured by a loan in default for 9 days or more. This includes homes that are in the process of being foreclosed. The Foreclosure Inventory series consists of homes that have begun the foreclosure process or are in some stage of foreclosure. The other figure depicts what proportion of homes secured by a mortgage have positive equity or negative equity. When a home has a market value at or above its outstanding mortgage balance, it is consider to have positive equity. Otherwise, the house has negative equity. Page 7

9 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends Notices of Default and Repossessions Monthly Frequency Residential Home Auctions Date (April 25 - June 214) REO 3-Month Moving Average NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO Actual NOD Date (April 25 - June 214) Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average Source: RealtyTrac Source: RealtyTrac These two figures are based on numbers gathered from County records by RealtyTrac. The first figure shows the monthly number of Notices of Default and Repossessions. The Notice of Default (NOD) is the initial stage of foreclosure that starts at least 9 days after the homeowner s mortgage default date. Not all homes that receive a NOD will necessarily be foreclosed. There exist other alternatives homeowners can invoke such as a loan modification, deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, and short sale. The other figure, Residential Home Auctions, shows the monthly number of homes that received a Notice of Trustee Sale and underwent a public auction. It includes both the successful and unsuccessful actions. Those that were unsuccessful are reverted back to the lender, which are expectedly sold later in the market as an REO. Page 8

10 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Nevada Statewide Trends New Jersey Florida New York Maine Connecticut Hawaii Illinois Nevada Maryland Vermont Delaware New Mexico Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Oregon Indiana South Carolina Oklahoma Kentucky Top 2 States in Foreclosure Inventory 2nd Quarter Percent of Loans in the Foreclosure Inventory Source: Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey 12 New Jersey Maryland Florida Connecticut Ohio Delaware Illinois Mississippi Maine Georgia Indiana Rhode Island Pennsylvania New York Nevada Vermont Kentucky North Carolina Arkansas South Carolina Top 2 States in Foreclosure Starts 2nd Quarter Mortgage Foreclosure Starts as Percent of Stock Source: Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey 1.25 These figures rank Nevada nationally on the basis of statistics that are provided by Mortgage Bankers Association s National Delinquency Survey. The Top 2 States in Foreclosure Inventory figures is a ranking that uses the proportion of loans in the foreclosure inventory. That is the number of home loans reported to be in some stage of foreclosure divided by the total number of home loans serviced. The Top 2 States in Foreclosure Starts is a ranking that uses mortgage foreclosure starts as a percent of stock. In other words, this is the number of initiated foreclosures divided by the total number of home loans serviced. Page 9

11 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Northern Trends Population: 614,491in 213 Housing Units: 267,161in 213 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts (Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Lyon, Storey, and Washoe County) Page 1

12 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Northern Trends Northern Nevada performed much better than the state average in terms of distress for the month of June 214. The share of homes sold under distress decreased by18.2 percent from May 214 to June 214, and is down over 41 percent year over year. The percentage of homeowners underwater also decreased by over 3 percent and is now at 19.2 percent the lowest of any region in Nevada. New home prices decreased each month of the second quarter of 214 in Northern Nevada. However, new home prices only decreased a modest amount each month and new homes are still priced over $25, more than Southern Nevada. New home prices are also up 23.1 percent year over year much more than any other region in Nevada. Carson City Single-Family Home Sales* June 214 M2M Change Y2Y Change New 1-4.5% -11.8% Existing % -9.1% Distress Share 14.3% -18.2% -41.6% Residential Construction Total Starts Single-Family Multifamily Average Single-Family Sales Price* New $325,95 -.2% +23.1% Existing $25, % +4.1% Distress $189, % +12.1% Douglas Washoe Storey Lyon Humboldt Pershing Lander Churchill Mineral Esmeralda Nye Eureka Elko White Pine Lincoln Clark Source: Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Data and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three-Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 11

13 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Northern Trends Single-Family Home Prices Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Home Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) Date (January 2 - June 214) Existing New Existing New Single-Family Distress Sales Share of Distress Sales Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) REO Sales Short Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) Page 12

14 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Northern Trends Count in Thousands Foreclosure Trends Monthly Frequency Notices of Default and Repossessions Date (January 2 - June 214) Date (April 25 - June 214) REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO 9+ Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD Source: RealtyTrac 1 Equity in Quarter 2, 214 (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) Percent Residential Home Auctions Monthly Frequency Date (April 25 - June 214) Positive Equity Negative Equity Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average Source: RealtyTrac Page 13

15 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Southern Trends Population: 2,27,868 in 213 Housing Units: 854,89 in 213 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts (Clark County) Page 14

16 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Southern Trends New single-family start ups and new home sales increased each month during the second quarter of 214 for Southern Nevada. Southern Nevada is the only region in Nevada that sees consistent growth in the new single-family home market. New home prices still remain relatively stable as home prices only dropped by 1 percent this month. Washoe Humboldt Elko Southern Nevada did not see the large drop in distress share that the rest of the state saw. The share of homes sold under distress in Southern Nevada only decreased 3 percent this month, and is still near 2 percent. Storey Pershing Churchill Lander Eureka White Pine New and existing home prices remain stable in Southern Nevada. Distress home prices saw a significant month to month increase for the first time in over a year. Carson City Douglas Lyon Mineral Single-Family Home Sales* June 214 M2M Change Y2Y Change New % -43.7% Existing % -2.5% Distress Share 19.5% -3.% -34.3% Residential Construction Total Starts Single-Family Multifamily Average Single-Family Sales Price* New $3,194-1.% +9.4% Existing $24, % +7.5% Distress $162, % +3.5% Esmeralda Nye Clark Lincoln Source: Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Data and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three-Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 15

17 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Southern Trends Single-Family Home Prices Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Distress Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) Date (January 2 - June 214) Existing New REO Sales Short Sales Single-Family Distress Sales Share of Distress Sales Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) REO Sales Short Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) Page 16

18 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Southern Trends Count in Thousands Foreclosure Trends Monthly Frequency Notices of Default and Repossessions Date (January 2 - June 214) Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory Percent Equity in Quarter 2, 214 (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) Date (April 25 - June 214) REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD Source: RealtyTrac Monthly Frequency Residential Home Auctions Date (April 25 - June 214) Positive Equity Negative Equity Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average Source: RealtyTrac Page 17

19 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Rural Trends Population: 147,777 in 213 Housing Units: 65,629 in 212 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts (Elko, Esmeralda, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Mineral, Nye, Pershing, and White Pine County) Page 18

20 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Rural Trends The distress share in Rural Nevada continues to fluctuate each month as this month saw a 51 percent decrease in the share of homes sold under distress. These large changes are due to REO sales varying each month, as short sales are fairly constant in rural Nevada. There were 15 REO sales in Rural Nevada during June 214, 33 less than May 214. Rural Nevada is the only region in Nevada where foreclosures dominate short sales. Washoe Humboldt Pershing Elko Rural Nevada is the biggest sufferer in Nevada in terms of new home sales. New home sales decreased 14 percent in June 214 and are down 46.7 percent year over year. New single-family start ups also fell this month in Rural Nevada and continue to remain low. Storey Carson City Lyon Churchill Lander Eureka White Pine Douglas Mineral Single-Family Home Sales* June 214 M2M Change Y2Y Change New % -46.7% Existing % -29.8% Distress Share 12.4% -5.8.% +3.2% Residential Construction Total Starts Single-Family Multifamily + -2 Average Single-Family Sales Price* New $29,52-1.7% -13.8% Existing $131, % +11.% Distress $82, % -16.4% Esmeralda Nye Clark Lincoln Source: Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Data and the State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. *Figures portray Three-Month Moving Weighted Averages Page 19

21 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Rural Trends Single-Family Home Prices Monthly Number of Sales Single-Family Home Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) Date (January 2 - June 214) Existing New Existing New Single-Family Distress Sales Share of Distress Single-Family Home Sales Share of Distress Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) REO Sales Short Sales Date (January 2 - June 214) 214 Page 2

22 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 Rural Trends 1.5 Foreclosure Trends Notices of Default and Repossessions Count in Thousands Date (January 2 - June 214) Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory 1 2 Monthly Frequency Date (April 25 - June 214) REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REO NOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD Source: RealtyTrac Percent Equity in Quarter 2, 214 (Home Value - Mortgage Balance) Monthly Frequency Residential Home Auctions Date (April 25 - June 214) Positive Equity Negative Equity Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average Source: RealtyTrac Page 21

23 Nevada s Housing Market June 214 About the Lied Institute The Lied Institute was established in 1989 by the Lee Business School at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas to foster excellence in real estate education and research. Through partnerships with business and community leaders, the Lied Institute strives to improve the real estate business and effective public policy practices in Southern Nevada. The institute produces relevant and timely real estate research, supports educational programs in real estate economics and finance for students and professionals, and provides community outreach and continuing education. About the Department of Business & Industry The Department of Business and Industry is a cabinet level agency in the Nevada State government. The Department s objective is to encourage and promote the development and growth of business and to ensure the legal operation of business in order to protect consumers by maintaining a fair and competitive regulatory environment. The Director s office at Business and Industry manages a number of programs and initiatives to address the needs of small businesses, homeowners and consumers including small business advocacy, bond programs, access to capital, housing retention programs, constituent services and fraud prevention and education. Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies 455 S. Maryland Parkway, Box Las Vegas, NV Edward Coulson Director (72) Ed.Coulson@unlv.edu Betty Campbell Program Coordinator (72) Betty.campbell@unlv.edu Peter Counts Graduate Assistant Counts@unlv.nevada.edu Department of Business & Industry 555 E. Washington Ave #49 Las Vegas, NV 8911 Bruce Breslow Director (775) Breslow@business.nv.gov Ashok Mirchandani Deputy Director (72) AMirchandani@business.nv.gov Copyright 213 Report on Nevada s Housing Market Readers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas and the State of Nevada Department of Business & Industry Page 22