Saint Paul Inspiring Communities

Transcription

1 Saint Paul Inspiring Communities Impact Analysis: CITY OF SAINT PAUL Department of Planning & Economic Development (PED) 25 W. 4th St., Suite 1300 Saint Paul, MN Cecile Bedor Director Project Coordinator: Jake Reilly Senior Planner Research and Design: Dean Porter Research Intern Released February 2014 This research report demonstrates improvements in Saint Paul s residential real estate market between 2008 and Results suggest that geographically focused Inspiring Communities interventions positively impacted Saint Paul s real estate market, with particularly pronounced impacts on target areas. This report focuses on the impacts of two integrated initiatives that were integrated into Inspiring Communities in 2013: the Invest Saint Paul (ISP) program and the Neighborhood Stabilization (NSP) program. The ISP and NSP programs sought the following goals for their respective target geographies. Short term Arrest decline in residential sales prices Reduce vacant and abandoned properties Long term Increase sales of residential property Increase market values of real estate This analysis emonstrates substantial progress towards these objectives based on the following trends. Residential sale prices no longer declining; increasing in most areas Exceptional decrease in the foreclosure rate for target areas; demonstrated relationship between Inspiring Communities investments and improvements in the foreclosure rate. Exceptional decrease in instances of vacant buildings for target areas; demonstrated relationship between Inspiring Communities investments and a decrease in the number of vacant buildings. Increase in non-distressed home sales for 3 out of 4 target areas Stabilization of mean assessed values for residential real estate 34% overall loss 2007 to 2012 (7% loss per year) Only 2% loss 2012 to 2013 Only 1% loss 2012 to 2013 for target areas Overall this study demonstrates achievement of short and long term goals. Statistical analysis also suggests that the Inspiring Communities strategy has been instrumental in stabilizing the residential real estate market in target areas.

2 Table of Contents February 2014 Context and geographic scope 3 Residential sales and prices Short term: Arrest decline in residential prices Long term: Increase sales of residential property 6 8 Vacant and abandoned properties Short term: Reduce vacant and abandoned properties in target areas 11 Assessed market values Long term: Increase assessed market values of residential real estate in target areas Conclusions 16 20

3 CONTEXT AND GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE Background on city interventions Between 2008 and 2010, the City of Saint Paul received a combined total of $32 million through the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Neighborhood Stabilization program (NSP) and the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (MHFA). The City received three separate rounds of HUD NSP grants entitled NSP 1, NSP2 and NSP 3 which are referenced throughout this report. The Saint Paul Housing and Redevelopment Authority (HRA) used these funds to redevelop vacant residential properties that may have otherwise contributed to blight and disinvestment in targeted neighborhoods and throughout the city. As the map below demonstrates, most of the city s redevelopment activities have been concentrated in Invest St. Paul (ISP) program priority areas. However, the map also shows the extent of the HUD-funded investments in NSP 1 and NSP 2 target geographies, which overlap and extend beyond the ISP areas. As of May 2013, the HRA was using ISP or NSP funds on 252 of its properties as shown below. The City of St. Paul made these investments with the goal of stimulating the private real estate market to preserve, grow and sustain neighborhoods. ")"" E E 252 HRA-owned properties K:\GIS\GIS - Dean\HRA data\hra_properties_foreclosures.mxd Source: Saint Paul PED ISP and NSP properties ISP Priority Area NSP 1 Area NSP 2 Area HRA properties using ISP or NSP funds ISP Priority Area NSP 1 NSP 2 The map shows the location of residential properties acquired or redeveloped by the HRA using ISP or NSP funds. This set of 250+ properties includes vacant lots, vacant properties, and properties are currently in various stages of redevelopment. 61 8/27/2013 Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 3

4 CONTEXT AND GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE All Properties owned by the Saint Paul HRA As of May 2013 the Saint Paul HRA owned 536 properties, including commercial, industrial and residential sites. 252 residential properties using ISP or NSP funds 284 additional properties (some located in ISP and NSP areas, others throughout the city) These properties are not directly considered in this particular analysis. With that said HRA presence in these areas adds additional context to the conclusions this paper makes about local real estate trends. Properties owned by the Saint Paul HRA, as of May 2013 ")"" 280 Como 35E Phalen M issi ssi pp i 52 Ri v e r K:\GIS\GIS - Dean\HRA data\hra_properties_foreclosures.mxd Crosby 35E 536 HRA-owned properties Pig's Eye HRA Inventory HRA Inventory, May 2013 Source: Saint Paul PED 61 8/27/2013 Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 4

5 CONTEXT AND GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE Overlay of NSP and ISP areas with Planning Districts The map below overlays planning district boundaries with geographic areas targeted by ISP and NSP 2 interventions. As shown below, most of the ISP and NSP 2 target geography is included within the following four planning districts. Thomas-Dale (Frogtown) Daytons Bluff Payne Phalen North End/South Como. For the purpose of analyzing Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data, these districts are used as a proxy for the ISP and NSP 2 target geography. This is necessary because this data is available for planning districts, but not for smaller geographic areas. ")"" 280 Como North End 35E Payne-Phalen Phalen 94 Dayton's Bluff Thomas-Dale/Frogtown 94 M iss i s s i p p i 52 Ri v e r K:\GIS\Projects\InvestSaintPaul\ISPandNSPEvaluation_ \HRAInventorywithISPNSP_2013.mxd Crosby 35E Selected Planning Districts ISP and NSP properties ISP Target Geography NSP2 Target Geography Pig's Eye 1/29/ Source: Saint Paul PED Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 5

6 RESIDENTIAL SALES AND PRICES Short term goal Arrest decline in residential sales prices for target geography. Findings Residential prices for targeted geographic areas are no longer declining; they are increasing. Prices in these areas improved at a greater rate than the city as a whole between 2008 and However, median prices in target areas are still much lower than prior to the recession due to particularly steep declines between 2007 and Because of this, target areas still have relatively depressed market prices when compared to the city as a whole. Evidence Residential sales prices no longer falling in ISP and NSP districts: Frogtown, Daytons Bluff, Payne Phalen and North End/South Como. Median sales prices increased for all of these districts between 2008 and 2013, compared with a net decrease for the city of Saint Paul. These four districts saw extreme declines in sales prices between 2007 and 2008, giving them more room to rebound after the recession. Median sales prices are still much lower than 2007 levels. Change in Median Sales Price for Saint Paul and Target Districts, $50,000 $40,000 $39,000 Change in Median Sales Price $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- $(10,000) $23,438 $15,050 $9,000 Dayton's Bluff Payne Phalen North End/South Como Thomas-Dale City of Saint Paul -$7,400 Sales prices have increased for all target districts, with particularly strong gains in Thomas- Dale and Daytons Bluff. Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. Data provided by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and 10K Research and Marketing. Source: Saint Paul PED Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 6

7 RESIDENTIAL SALES AND PRICES Sale prices since 2007 As of July 2013, median sales prices for the city of St. Paul were $137,500 for the past year. Although prices have rebounded significantly and are approaching the 2008 figure of $144,500, they are still much lower than prior to the recession in Target districts experienced an even greater dip between 2007 and 2008, but have increased rapidly since As of July 15, 2013 prices for these districts ranged from $82,000 to $90,000. Prices in Thomas-Dale were nearly twice as high in 2013 as they were in Median sales prices, city of Saint Paul and Target Districts $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- $190,000 $144,900 $137,500 $83,450 $44, Saint Paul Dayton's Bluff Payne Phalen North End/South Como Thomas-Dale Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. Data provided by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and 10K Research and Marketing. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 7

8 RESIDENTIAL SALES AND PRICES Long term goal Increase sales of residential property for target geography. Findings The study demonstrates achievement of the goal based on an increase in non-distressed sales and improvements in the sale timeline for homes in target districts. Evidence Increase in non-distressed sales for target districts. The non-distressed sales in three out of four districts increased between 2008 and Frogtown and North End saw greater percent increases than the city as whole, and Daytons Bluff also saw a notable increase. Improved sale timeline for homes in target districts. Homes in target district spent an average 99 days on the market in 2013, which is a 60% decrease from 2008 and is nearly identical to the citywide average. 40% Percent Change, Non-Distressed Sales, % 30% 20% 15% 13% 10% 5% 6% 0% -10% -20% Dayton's Bluff Payne Phalen North End/South -10% Como Thomas-Dale 4 Districts Combined City of Saint Paul Area 2012 Closed Sales, Not Distressed Change % Change Dayton's Bluff % Payne Phalen % North End/South Como % Thomas-Dale % City Of Saint Paul % Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. Data provided by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and 10K Research and Marketing. One goal of the NSP program was to increase residential sales in targeted neighborhoods. When distressed sales are excluded, the graph and table above demonstrate increased sales in three targeted neighborhoods - Dayton s Bluff, North End/South Como, and Thomas-Dale (Frogtown). Although Payne-Phalen does not show improvements here, the district had 100 non-distressed sales through July 15 of 2013, putting it on pace for a much higher total than the previous couple of years. Figures for the three other districts also suggest continued increases. Taking this into account, all four districts will likely see significant increases in non-distressed sales in Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 8

9 RESIDENTIAL SALES AND PRICES Changes in closed sales and distressed sales rates As shown on the last page, target areas saw improvements in the number of non-distressed sales between 2008 and As the figures below demonstrate, this was due to large improvements in the distressed sales rate for the target districts, coupled with a moderate increase in the number of closed sales. Closed sales peaked for both the target areas and the city in 2009, but most of these sale were distressed sales - short sales and foreclosures. After 2009 the distressed sales rate has fallen signicantly, particularly for the target areas. Taken together, these trends result in increased numbers of non-distressed sales. The implication is that the market for selling homes has improved. Total closed sales: , , ,818 City of Saint Paul Target geographies , Distressed sales rate Distressed sales rate: % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 62% 28% 14% 42% 69% 66% 53% 53% 58% 42% 47% 36% City of Saint Paul 4 Target Districts Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. Data provided by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and 10K Research and Marketing. 0% Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 9

10 RESIDENTIAL SALES AND PRICES Homes selling more quickly Homes in Saint Paul are selling more quickly, and target districts have seen particularly significant improvements in average days on the market. Homes in Frogtown, Daytons Bluff, Payne Phalen and North End/South Como spent an average of 99 days on the market for the first half of 2013, down from 161 days in This slightly less than the 101 day average for all homes in the City of Saint Paul. Coupled with the fact that homes are selling for higher prices, this is particularly encouraging for the local housing market. Average days on the market City of Saint Paul Target Districts Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. Data provided by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors and 10K Research and Marketing. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 10

11 VACANT AND ABANDONED PROPERTIES Short term goal Reduce vacant and abandoned properties in target areas. Findings Target areas saw exceptional improvements in vacancy and foreclosure when compared with the city as a whole. Target areas had very high levels of disinvestment in 2008, so improvements in these areas are largely responsible for citywide reductions in vacancy and foreclosure rates. Furtheremore, statistical analysis suggests that blocks with Inspiring Communities properties saw greater reductions vacant buildings and foreclosures than they would have otherwise. Some of this change is due to demolitions of abandoned buildings. Evidence Between 2008 and 2012, there was a 67% decrease in foreclosures and a 48% reduction in vacant buildings for ISP and NSP2 geographies. This is compared with a citywide 52% reduction in foreclosures and a 37% reduction in vacant buildings. Maps visually demonstrate greatly reduced concentrations of foreclosures and vacant buildings in target areas. Linear regressions and correlation coefficients demonstrate a relationship between geographically concentrated Inspiring Communities investments and improvements in those areas. Annual foreclosure tally, percent change between 2008 and % -10% City NSP2 ISP -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -52% -67% -67% Registered vacant buildings, percent change between 2008 and 2012 City NSP2 ISP -37% -47% -48% Source: Foreclosure data from the Ramsey County Sheriff s office. Vacant building data from the Saint Paul Department of Safety and Inspections Registered Vacant Building List, data archived and compiled by PED. Please note the following regarding this data. The City of Saint Paul has ordinances regulating vacant and unoccupied structures, and requires property owners to register these buildings with the Department of Safety and Inspections. A Registered Vacant Building is defined as an unoccupied building that meets one or more of the following criteria: unsecured, secured by other than normal means, a dangerous structure, condemned, has multiple housing or building code violations, condemned and illegally occupied, or has been unoccupied for a period of time longer than one year during which time an enforcement officer has issued an order to correct nuisance conditions. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 11

12 VACANT AND ABANDONED PROPERTIES 2008 Foreclosures and Vacant Buildings, Density (hotspot) analysis Using a hotspot analysis, these maps visually demonstrate greatly reduced concentrations of foreclosures and vacant buildings in target areas. The 2008 map shows severe concentrations of these distressed properties in ISP priority areas, indicating instability and disinvestment in these areas. The 2012 map shows that some concentrations still exist in the ISP priority areas, but are much less pronounced than in Foreclosures and Vacant Buildings, Density (hotspot) analysis Source: Vacant building data from Saint Paul Department of Safety and Inspections; Foreclosure data from the Ramsey County Sherrif s office. Map created with ArcMap based on a hotspot analysis that visually represents combined densities of foreclosures and vacant buildings throughout the city of Saint Paul. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 12

13 Prior Ave Prior Ave Snelling Ave Lexington Pkwy Rice St Snelling Ave Lexington Pkwy Rice St Smith Ave Robert St Smith Ave Robert St Payne Ave Payne Ave White Bear Ave McKnight Rd White Bear Ave McKnight Rd McKnight Rd McKnight Rd VACANT AND ABANDONED PROPERTIES 2008 Locations of Foreclosures and Vacant Buildings ")"" 280 Como Ave Midway Pkwy Horton Ave Como Dale St Lapenteur Ave 35E Wheelock Pkwy Maryland Ave Phalen Energy Park Dr University Ave Minnehaha Ave Front Ave 3rd St Mississippi St Tedesco St Case Ave Earl St Marshall Ave Kellogg Blvd Mounds Blvd Miss River Blvd Cleveland Ave Randolph Ave Summit Ave 7th St 52 M iss Warner Rd Burns Ave George St iss ip pi Ri ve r Battle Creek Rd Lower Afton Rd Ford Pkwy Highland Pkwy K:\GIS\GIS - Dean\VacantBuildings\VB_analysis.mxd Montreal Ave Shepard Rd Crosby 35E 2008 Vacant Buildings 2008 Foreclosures ISP Priority Areas Pig's Eye 8/27/ Similar to the maps on the previous page, these maps demonstrate reduced concentrations of foreclosures and vacant buildings for Showing the approximate locations of foreclosures and vacant buildings complements the hotspot analysis, which provides a more simplified visual representation Locations of Foreclosures and Vacant Buildings ")"" 280 Como Ave Midway Pkwy Horton Ave Como Dale St Lapenteur Ave 35E Wheelock Pkwy Maryland Ave Phalen Energy Park Dr University Ave Minnehaha Ave Front Ave 3rd St Mississippi St Tedesco St Case Ave Earl St Marshall Ave Kellogg Blvd Mounds Blvd Miss River Blvd Cleveland Ave Randolph Ave Summit Ave 7th St 52 M iss Warner Rd Burns Ave George St iss ip pi Ri ve r Battle Creek Rd Lower Afton Rd Ford Pkwy Highland Pkwy Source: Vacant building data from Saint Paul Department of Safety and Inspections; Foreclosure data from the Ramsey County Sherrif s office. K:\GIS\GIS - Dean\VacantBuildings\VB_analysis.mxd Montreal Ave Shepard Rd Crosby 35E ISP Priority Areas 2013 Vacant Buildings 2012 Foreclosures Pig's Eye 8/27/ Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 13

14 VACANT AND ABANDONED PROPERTIES Statistical analysis of foreclosures Statistical analysis also suggests that the Inspiring Communities program has helped decrease foreclosure rates in targeted areas. A simple linear regression suggests that block groups with Inspiring Communities properties saw a greater drop in foreclosures between 2008 and 2012 than they would have without the program. The equation below (y = -1.33x 2.86) has an intercept of 2.86 and a slope of This finding means that for each Inspiring Communities property in a block group, we can expect 1.33 fewer foreclosures from 2008 to Furthermore, a correlation coefficient of further suggests a moderate relationship between the number of Inspiring Communities properties in a block group and improvements in the foreclosure tally from 2008 to The finding complements the vacant building analysis, further suggesting positive impacts of Inspiring Communities on forelcosure rates in target areas. Relationship between changes in the foreclosure tallies and NSP/ISP investments, by census block group 20 # of Inspiring Communities properties in block group Change in foreclosure tally, census block groups, y = -1.33x R² = 0.23 Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 14

15 VACANT AND ABANDONED PROPERTIES Statistical analysis of vacant buildings A linear regression suggests that block groups with Inspiring Communities properties saw a greater drop in vacant building tallies than they would have without the program. This finding means that for each Inspiring Communities property in a block group, there is an expected reduction of 1.4 vacant buildings from 2008 to Furthermore, a correlation coefficient of -.55 further suggests a moderate to strong relationship between the number of Inspiring Communities properties in a block group and improvements in the vacant building tally from 2008 to The implication of this finding is that the positive impacts of Inspiring Communities reach beyond direct investment in homes. Relationship between changes in the vacant building tallies and NSP/ISP investments, by census block group 10 # of Inspiring Communities properties in block group Change in foreclosure tally, census block groups, y = -1.4x R² = 0.3 Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 15

16 ASSESSED MARKET VALUES Short term goal Increase assessed market values of residential real estate in target areas. Findings Real estate values in target areas appear to be stable overall. Some subareas are continuing to decrease slightly, but other areas are increasing in value. Targeted ISP and NSP2 areas both saw a 1% decrease in median values between 2012 and 2013, which was less than the 2% drop for the citywide median. This speaks to the increasing stability and desirability of areas with Inspiring Communities investment. Evidence Median values for ISP and NSP areas dropped by only 1% between 2012 and 2013, compared with a 2% drop citywide. Although this is not an improvement, it is much better than the 50% drop in values between 2007 and Citywide real estate values are relatively stable. Although values fell by 2% over the past year, this is much less than the previous few years and some areas of the city are increasing in value. Many parcels in target areas are increasing in value, and the Frogtown district saw a 2.6% increase in value over the most recent year of data. $199,100 $166,500 $162,700 $153,400 $100,900 $95,600 $128,200 $130,800 $82,700 $81,700 $76,900 $76,200 Between January 2007 and January 2013, the total value of Saint Paul real estate dropped 20.7%, from $22.7 billion to $18.8 billion. Median residential values dropped 35.6%, from nearly 200,000 to $128,200. Targeted NSP and ISP areas suffered even more, dropping by more than 50% over the same period. Median residential values began to stabilize between 2012 and The city and the target areas experienced the worst declines between 2007 and The decline from 2010 up to the most recent assessment in January 2013 was much less severe; and losses for the ISP and NSP areas were also more comparable to citywide losses. Data from the most recent assessment in January 2013 indicates stabilization in for the ISP and NSP focus areas (loss of only $1,000 or about 1%) and for the city (loss of $2,600, about 2%). Source: Ramsey County Assessor s office. This analysis excludes the following parcels: exempt property, non-tax outlots, County Services property, Public Colleges, Federal Property, State Property, Forest/Park/Refuge land, Municipal services land, State Acquired and State Property, land owned by public utilities, railroad property, skyways, St. Paul Airport and Metro Airports Comission properties, Charity/Welfare facilities and Wetlands. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 16

17 ASSESSED MARKET VALUES The worst of the recession: Saint Paul real estate values were hit hardest during this time period. The median value of residential parcels in Saint Paul decreased by 23%, from $199,100 to $153,400. As the clustering of darker dots demonstrates, the most severe impacts on the real estate market were geographically concentrated. The map visually demonstrates that parcels in the ISP and NSP areas saw devastating declines over this three year period change in assessed value of residential parcels Maryland Ave Dr Case Ave Prior Ave 94 Minnehaha Ave e Ted sco St 3rd St University Ave Marshall Ave K g og ell Bl vd 94 Burns Ave Mi Summit Ave ss is rn Wa d er R si Highland Pkwy 35E ar dr d C La ros ke by ep Sh Change in Value, R ton d Pig's Eye 61 Remained stable or increased in value Declined 0-10% Declined 10-25% Declined 25-50% Declined 50% or more Source: Ramsey County Assessor s office. Map created by PED. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis r Af McKnight Rd Smith Ave George St Randolph Ave Montreal Ave e Low Robert St Snelling Ave 52 St ver h 7t i i R Cleveland Ave pp Miss River Blvd Ford Pkwy K:\GIS\Projects\InvestSaintPaul\ISPandNSPEvaluation_ \Parcel_values_sales.mxd McKnight Rd Johnson Front Ave White Bear Ave Como Pkwy ve y Park 35E Earl St oa Horton Ave Phalen Rice St m Energ Dale St Co 280 " " " ) Lexington Pkwy Larpenteur Ave 72,913 residential parcels (1-3 units only) 1/29/2014 Page 17

18 ASSESSED MARKET VALUES Declines becoming less severe: The presence of green dots within the ISP and NSP areas demonstrates that a significant number parcels in these areas have gained value since Despite this encouraging trend, there are still many parcels with large losses in these areas. Saint Paul real estate values continued declining during this period, but the drop was much less severe than the previous three years. The median value of residential parcels in the city decreased by 16.4% from $153,400 to $128,200. Parcels that experienced declines more than 1.5 times the citywide median (24.6%+) are shown in red change in assessed market value of residential parcels Maryland Ave Dr Case Ave 94 Prior Ave Minnehaha Ave e Ted sco St 3rd St University Ave Marshall Ave K g og ell Bl vd 94 Burns Ave Mi Summit Ave ss is rn Wa e r Rd si Highland Pkwy 35E ep Sh ar dr d C La ros ke by Montreal Ave Change in Value, R ton d Pig's Eye 61 Remained stable or increased in value Declined 0-10% Declined 10-25% Declined 25-50% Declined 50% or more Source: Ramsey County Assessor s office. Map created by PED. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis r Af McKnight Rd George St Smith Ave Randolph Ave e Low Robert St Snelling Ave 52 St ver h 7t i i R Cleveland Ave pp Miss River Blvd Ford Pkwy K:\GIS\Projects\InvestSaintPaul\ISPandNSPEvaluation_ \Parcel_values_sales.mxd McKnight Rd Johnson Front Ave d in value White Bear Ave Como Pkwy ve y Park 35E Earl St oa Horton Ave Phalen Rice St m Energ Dale St Co 280 " " " ) Lexington Pkwy Larpenteur Ave 72,913 residential parcels (1-3 units only) 1/29/2014 Page 18

19 ASSESSED MARKET VALUES Stabilization in target areas: The residential real estate market in target areas began to stablize in 2012, along with the rest of the city. Median values for ISP and NSP areas dropped by only 1%, although values for both of these areas are relatively low at around $80,000. This is compared with a larger 2% drop citywide, from $130,800 to $128,200. Throughout the city, the map shows a substantial number of residential properties (1/3 of the total) that had stable or increasing values. The map also shows that NSP and ISP areas no longer appear to have the largest concentration of parcels with large losses. The target areas also contain significant concentrations of parcels that are increasing value or remaining stable. Most properties in Frogtown are increasing in value change in assessed market value of residential parcels Maryland Ave Dr Case Ave 94 e Ted sco St 3rd St University Ave Marshall Ave llo Ke B gg l vd 94 Burns Ave Mi Summit Ave ss is rn Wa e r Rd si Highland Pkwy 35E ep Sh ar dr d C La ros ke by Montreal Ave Change in Value, R ton d Pig's Eye 61 Remained stable or increased in value Declined 0-3% Declined 3-8% Declined 8%-17% Declined 17% or more Source: Ramsey County Assessor s office. Map created by PED. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis r Af McKnight Rd George St Smith Ave Randolph Ave e Low Robert St Snelling Ave 52 St ver h 7t i i R Cleveland Ave pp Miss River Blvd Ford Pkwy K:\GIS\Projects\InvestSaintPaul\ISPandNSPEvaluation_ \Parcel_values_sales.mxd McKnight Rd Johnson Prior Ave Minnehaha Ave Pkwy ve Como Front Ave d in value White Bear Ave 35E Earl St oa Horton Ave y Park Phalen Rice St m Energ Dale St Co 280 " " " ) Lexington Pkwy Larpenteur Ave 72,913 residential parcels (1-3 units only) 1/29/2014 Page 19

20 CONCLUSIONS Trends represent key real estate improvements This analysis demonstrates the following improvements for in Saint Paul s real estate market between 2008 and Trends are demonstrated by descriptive statistics, maps, linear regression and coefficient analysis. Improved sale prices and shorter sales timelines Decreased numbers of foreclosures and vacant buildings; analysis shows greater than expected improvements for target geography Stabilized assessed real estate values as of the most recent 2013 assessment These improvements were particularly pronounced for the ISP and NSP2 target geographies, areas which struggled the most during the heigh of the recession. Implications This study suggests that the Inspiring Communities program has positively impacted target areas, which in turn has contributed to overall improvements in the Saint Paul real estate market. In particular, statistical analysis of vacancies and foreclosures within block group areas suggests that the strategy of clustering rehabilition investments on particular blocks has been effective at revitalizing the market in those areas. Given particularly pronounced disinvestment in target areas during the recession, the revitalization of these areas has and continues to be crucial to the overall health of real estate market activity throughout the city. The findings of this report suggest that public investments through the Inspiring Communities program have made important contributions toward facilitating private real estate investment in Saint Paul over the past three years. Inspiring Communities Program Impact Analysis Page 20