Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary Rental Market Overview

Transcription

1 Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary Rental Market Overview Christina Butchart, Regional Economist April 2018

2 Themes 2

3 Calgary

4 Employment growth has returned Employment, Calgary CMA employed (,000s) Actual Seasonally Adjusted Source: Statistics Canada 4

5 Calgary CMA Employment by Industry Construction Business, building & other support services Accommodation and food services Wholesale and Retail Trade Manufacturing Mining, quarring, oil & gas, forestry, fishing Public Administration Utilities Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Transportation and warehousing Educational services Information, culture and recreation Health care and social assistance Other Services Professional, scientific & technical services Source: Statistics Canada March yr/yr change in employment (,000s) 5

6 Unemployment remains above national average Unemployment rate, Calgary CMA and Canada seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) 12 Calgary Canada Source: Statistics Canada 6

7 Migration has declined number of people Net Migration, Calgary CMA 45,000 Non-permanent Residents Intraprovincial 35,000 International Interprovincial Net Migration 25,000 15,000 5,000-5,000-15, Source: Statistics Canada 7

8 Growth patterns are changing Population growth by age, Calgary CMA year/year change (%) Average Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC calculations 8

9 The rental universe is growing Apartment rental universe, Calgary CMA rental units 40,000 35,000 Purpose-built Condo Apartment 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Source: CMHC, October Surveys 9

10 As the secondary rental market increases rental units 25,000 20,000 Condo apartment rental universe, Calgary CMA Condo Apartment 15,000 10,000 5, Source: CMHC, October Surveys 10

11 And new rental units come to the market 2,500 2,000 Rental Apartments Starts, Calgary CMA Starts Completions 1,500 1, Source: CMHC

12 Vacancy rate will gradually decline Apartment Vacancy Rate, Calgary CMA vacancy rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% f 2019f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f), October Surveys 12

13 Calgary CMA Same-sample Average Rents percentage change of average two-bedroom apartment rent Source: CMHC, October Surveys 1 The percentage change of average rent is based on those structures that were common to the to the survey sample in both the current and previous year. 13

14 Edmonton

15 Job losses in the first three months of 2018 Employment, Edmonton CMA mo/mo seasonally adjusted employment growth (000s) Source: Statistics Canada

16 Employment to move higher in 2018 and 2019 employment (000s) 800 Employment, Edmonton CMA f 2019f Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)

17 Unemployment rate moves lower Unemployment Rate, Edmonton CMA seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) Source: Statistics Canada

18 Migration declines for a third consecutive year Net Migration, Edmonton CMA number of people 40,000 International Non-permanent residents Intraprovincial Interprovincial Total 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10, Source: Statistics Canada

19 Lower migration will slow the pace of population growth population (000s) 1,500 Population, Edmonton CMA 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, f 2019f Source: Statistics Canada, July to June, CMHC Forecast (f)

20 Rental construction has slowed 3,000 Rental Apartments Starts, Edmonton CMA 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: CMHC

21 But the universe will continue to grow 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Rental Apartments Under Construction, Edmonton CMA Source: CMHC 21

22 Inventory of new rental units remains elevated 1,200 Unabsorbed Rental Apartments, Edmonton CMA 1, Source: CMHC 22

23 Vacancy rate is forecast to decline per cent Apartment Vacancy Rate, Edmonton CMA f 2019f Source: CMHC, October Survey, CMHC forecast (f)

24 Average rent continued to move down in 2018 Average Apartment Rent, Edmonton CMA average two-bedroom rent $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ f 2019f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f), October Survey

25 Vancouver

26 BC is still one of Canada s top performers 4% 3% 2.9% Change in Employment (%), Mar 2017 Mar % 1% 0% -1% -2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% -0.4% -0.9% P.E.I AB QC BC ON Canada NS MB NB SK NL Source: Statistics Canada 26

27 Unemployment Rate Trending Downwards in Vancouver Unemployment rate (%), Vancouver CMA Source: Statistics Canada 27

28 Immigration is the main contributor to household growth 50,000 Net Vancouver CMA Migration 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, , International From other provinces To other BC areas Source: Statistics Canada 28

29 VANCOUVER CMA 5-year avg annual chg: 16,000 households/ year CITY OF VANCOUVER 5-year avg annual chg: 2,900 households/ year 29

30 Household growth is more concentrated in the rental market Net New Households, Vancouver CMA % 59% Renter Households Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculations 30

31 Rising Ownership Prices Keeps More Households Renting $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $63k $62k $67k $69k $70k $67k$70k $74k $78k $85k$103k Average Rent - Primary Average Rent - Rental Condominium $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Carrying Cost of Median Condominium Apartments (Strata) 20 per cent Down Payment - Median Condominium Apartments Note: Carrying cost includes mortgage payment, median condominium (strata) fees and median property taxes. Sources: CMHC, REBGV, FVREB. Internal calculations CANADA by CMHC MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 31

32 Share of income, % Years of savings First-time buyers have to save a lot to get into the market 300% Savings Expectations for First-Time Buyers of Detached Houses, Vancouver CMA % 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Years to Save for a Downpayment (25% Savings Rate) Share of Annual Income Needed for 20% Downpayment Sources: Stats Can Survey of Labor Dynamics; MLS data.

33 Share of income, % Years of savings First-time buyers have to save a lot to get into the market 300% Savings Expectations for First-Time Buyers of Detached Houses, Vancouver CMA % 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Years to Save for a Downpayment (25% Savings Rate) Share of Annual Income Needed for 20% Downpayment Sources: Stats Can Survey of Labor Dynamics; MLS data.

34 Tightening Rental Market in the Last 5 Years 34

35 Tightening Rental Market in the Last 5 Years 35

36 Tightening Rental Market in the Last 5 Years 36

37 Tightening Rental Market in the Last 5 Years 37

38 Tightening Rental Market in the Last 5 Years 38

39 Developers bringing more rental projects to the market Rental Apartment Starts and Completions, Vancouver CMA 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Starts Completions Source: CMHC 39

40 Vacancy rate remains low vacancy rate 3% Apartment Vacancy Rate, Vancouver CMA 2% 1% 0% Source: CMHC 40

41 The pace of rent growth has moved higher Same-sample average rents, Vancouver CMA percentage change of average apartment rent Source: CMHC, October Surveys 1 The percentage change of average rent is based on those structures that were common to the to the survey sample in both the current and previous year. 41

42 Summary Stronger economies in Edmonton and Calgary are expected to push vacancy rate down Higher prices and low selection on the resale market will continue to support rental demand in Vancouver Rental construction across all three centres is increasing the size of the rental market 42

43 What is the Rental Construction Financing Initiative? More information cmhc.ca/financinginitiative Questions $3.75B $1M minimum loan 4 Ye a r Initiative In low-cost loans to housing providers for the construction of standard rental apartments in Canada 43

44 CMHC Market Analysis and Housing Observer Online Recent report releases: Housing Market Assessment (Q1) Examining Escalating House Prices in Large CMAs (Q1) Upcoming releases: Housing Market Assessment (Q2) Seniors Housing Survey (Q2) 44

45 Thank You! Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 45