St. John s CMA Housing Market Overview

Transcription

1 St. John s CMA Housing Market Overview Chris Janes, Senior Market Analyst CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 Key drivers of housing demand Population Employment Income CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 2

3 Working age population up in Population, St. John s Area, Both Sexes, Age 15+ (000 s) +1.5% or 2,700 people to 181, Source: Statistics Canada CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 3

4 Avg. weekly earnings -3.5% to $953 vs $987 Earnings Remain Strong $1,050 Average Weekly Earnings ($), St. John's CMA $1,000 $950 $900 $850 $ % 2015 was first yr/yr decline in recent history $750 $700 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 4

5 Employment flat at +0.1% in Employment, yrs, St. John's Area (000's) 116,400 Full time: -3% or 3,000 Part time: +17% or 3, Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 5

6 Oil sector #1 driver of economy since 1997 Production (billion bbls) 1.6+ Value of Output (billion $ CDN) $115+ Value of Output (billion $ US) $103+ Cumulative Royalties (billion $ CDN) $19+ Sector Investment (billion $ CDN) $45+ Source: AG report, provincial budgets and public accounts CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 6

7 Economic outlook Negative: No to little growth expected in economy & housing market drivers until after 2018 Positive: Current & future capital project activity: Hebron first oil late 2017 Muskrat Falls & Gull Island White Rose West GBS drilling platform construction in Bull Arm Statoil 2013 discoveries development Harpoon & Bay du Nord Future offshore oil field expansions, extensions & discoveries Currently $3 billion in outstanding work commitment bids offshore NL Mining & mineral projects in Labrador & central NL Oil sector major driver of economy, however: Since 2012, royalties down from 38.7% of provincial revenues to 10.5% Net debt per capita +60% from $15,000 to $24,000 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 7

8 New Home Market CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 8

9 New home market 2016 Weaker new home construction activity: St. John s CMA housing starts -15% to 833 vs 985 Singles -14% to 625 vs % of total starts Multiples -19% to 208 vs % of total starts Avg. singles price -1.7% to $424,647 vs $431,813 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 9

10 Single starts declined considerably since ,600 Annual Single-Detached Starts, St. John s Area 1,400 1,485 1,479 1,200 1,000 1,174 1,382 1,304 1,292 1,243 10yr avg. 1, Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 10

11 Multiple starts declined since ,000 Annual Multiple Starts, St. John s Area yr avg Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 11

12 Single starts lower in all submarkets Single and Total Starts by Submarket 2016 Single Total Submarket YTD 2016 YTD 2015 YTD 2016 YTD 2015 % Change St. John's City Conception Bay South Mount Pearl Paradise Torbay Remainder of the CMA St. John's CMA Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 12

13 Increase in Semi & Row in select submarkets Submarket Multiple Starts by Submarket 2016 YTD 2016 Semi YTD 2015 YTD 2016 Row YTD 2015 Apt. & Other YTD 2016 YTD 2015 St. John's City Conception Bay South Mount Pearl Paradise Torbay Remainder of the CMA St. John's CMA Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 13

14 New home prices mixed among submarkets Average Price ($) of Absorbed Single-detached Units 2016 Submarket YTD 2016 YTD 2015 % Change St. John's City 444, , Conception Bay South 342, , Mount Pearl 361, , Paradise 412, , Torbay 540, , Remainder of the CMA 516, , St. John's CMA 424, , Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 14

15 Year over year price growth prior to 2016 Average New Single-Detached Price Growth, St. John s Area 25% 22% 20% 15% 15% Avg. +8% prior to % 10% 9% 8% 10% 5% 3% 4% 2% 5% 4% 0% -5% -3% Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 15

16 New home market outlook... No growth in housing starts until after 2018 Single-detached demand inline with demographics Multiples driven by semi, row & AHI rental projects Avg. price pressure via lower-priced homes & economy Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 16

17 MLS Residential Market MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 17

18 MLS residential activity 2016 Weaker MLS activity: St. John s Area sales -5.8% to 3,182 Avg. MLS price -5.2% to $307,322 Active listings flat; Declined Sept to July 2016 Source: CMHC; NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 18

19 Steady MLS sales since ,500 MLS Sales, St. John s Region 4,000 3,500 3,000 3,835 3,642 3,470 3,647 3,871 3,617 10yr avg. 3,547 3,281 3,378 3,182 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: CMHC; NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 19

20 2016 average MLS price by submarket $394,250 $329,291 $298,470 $295,039 $274,522 $267,657 Source: NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 20

21 Year over year MLS submarket activity Submarket MLS Residential Activity by Submarket Sales % Change Average Sale Price ($) Sales Average Sale Price ($) Sales Average Sale Price St. John's City 1, ,470 1, , Mount Pearl , , St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail , , Conception Bay South , , East Extern , , Bay Bulls - Mobile , , St. John's CMA 2, ,322 2, , Source: NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 21

22 Year over year price growth prior to 2015 Average MLS Price Growth, St. John s Region 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 15% 21% 14% 9% Avg. 10% prior to % 5% 2% 0% -5% -10% -4% -5% Source: NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 22

23 2016 MLS market conditions Buyers Market: Avg. MLS price flat to declining Sales flat to declining Days on market averaging about 3 months for a sale Sale-to-list price ratio of 96% vs. 97% a year ago Monthly sales-to-active listings ratio of 10% (1 in10 selling) Source: CMHC; NL Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 23

24 MLS residential market outlook... Sales flat, inline with weaker economy Avg. price pressure via lower-priced homes & economy Buyers resale market classification continues Low mortgage rates help support prices Source: CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 24

25 Rental Market CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 25

26 7.9% vacancy rate, up from 4.7% Zone Private Apartment Vacancy Rates (%) by Zone and Bedroom Type St. John's CMA Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom + Total Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Zone 1 - St. John's East Zone 2 - St. John's West St. John's City (Zones 1-2) Zone 3 - Remainder of CMA 0.0 ** ** ** St. John's CMA Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 26

27 Average rents higher, despite higher vacancies Zone Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Zone and Bedroom Type St. John's CMA Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom + Total Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-15 Oct-16 Zone 1 - St. John's East , Zone 2 - St. John's West St. John's City (Zones 1-2) Zone 3 - Remainder of CMA ** ** St. John's CMA Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 27

28 Thank You! CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 28

29 Contact Information Chris Janes Senior Market Analyst CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 29