APPENDIX C. Economic and Market Trend Analysis

Transcription

1 APPENDIX C Economic and Market Trend Analysis

2 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination Economic and Market Trends Analysis Submitted to Town of Babylon Submitted by October 25, 2007

3 Table of Contents A: Executive Summary... 1 Residential Market Analysis...1 Retail Market Analysis...3 Industrial Market Analysis...5 Office Market Analysis...6 Potential Strategic Development Sites...6 Secondary Development Sites... 7 B: Residential Market Analysis... 9 Introduction and Study Area...9 Demographic and Housing Characteristics...9 Recent Population Trends and Projections... 9 Age Distribution Households and Household Size Household Income Housing Inventory Housing Values and Rents Market Segmentation...19 Existing Residential Trade Area Residents Existing Wyandanch Residents Target Market Segments Potential Residential Development...22 Comparable Residential Developments...25 Single-Family Homes Multi-Unit Housing Rentals Conclusion...28 C: Retail Market Analysis Introduction and Study Area...29 Capture Rates...30 Retail Profile...32 Summary of Retail Market Conditions...35 Potential Retail Development in Wyandanch...35 Conclusion...38 D: Alternative Market Sectors Industrial Market Opportunities...40 Office Market Opportunities...42 E: Recommendations Residential Development Concepts...45 Commercial Development Concepts...46 i

4 Table of Contents Retail Store Sizes Potential Strategic Development Sites...47 Site A: TOD mixed-use development, public-gathering or entertainment space, and commuter parking Site B: TOD mixed-use development and open space Site C: Retail and residential Site D: Mixed-use infill Site E: Mixed-use residential and retail development Secondary Development Sites...50 Site F: Community services with retail or residential infill Site G: Industrial or retail infill F: Appendix: Residential Comparables...51 ii

5 List of Tables Table 1 Comparative Population Change : Hamlet of Wyandanch, Town of Babylon, Residential Trade Area, and Long Island...10 Table 2 Projected Population Growth : Town of Babylon, Suffolk County, Nassau County, and Long Island...12 Table 3 Age Distribution: 1990, Table 4 Number of Households and Average Household Size: 1990, Table 5 Median Household Income: 1989, Table Household Income Distribution...14 Table 7 Housing Tenure: 1990, Table 8 Housing Unit Size...17 Table 9 Number of Bedrooms: 1990 & Table 10 Housing Value for All Owner-Occupied Units: Table 11 Median Contract Rents: 1990, Table 12 Target Market Segments...23 Table 13 Selected Characteristics of Primary and Secondary Target Market Households...24 Table 14 Potential Residential Capture Rates (2006)...25 Table 15 Potential New Household Demand (2006)...25 Table 16 Listing Price Range for 3-4 Bedroom Single-Family Homes...26 Table 17 Existing Multi-Unit Housing Complexes...27 Table Bedroom Condominium or Co-op Units...27 Table 19 Retail Trade Area Population (2006)...30 Table 20 Estimated Capture Rates for Retail Stores in Trade Area...31 Table 21 Retail Survey: Retail Trade Area...34 Table 22 Additional Retail Potentially Absorbed by Existing Expenditure Potential...36 Table 23 Additional Retail Potentially Absorbed by New Residential Development...37 Table 24 Wyandanch Employment, Q and Q iii

6 List of Tables Table 25 Office Market Characteristics...43 Table F-1 Residential Rental Listings in the Residential Trade Area (Suffolk County)...51 Table F-2 Residential Rental Listings in the Residential Trade Area (Nassau County)...52 Table F-3 Current Listing Prices for Single-Family Homes in Wyandanch, Suffolk County...53 Table F-4 Current Listing Prices for Single-Family Homes in Amityville, Suffolk County...53 Table F-5 Current Listing Prices for Condos and Co-op Units in Amityville, Suffolk County...54 Table F-6 Current Listing Prices for Single-Family Homes in Bay Shore, Suffolk County...54 Table F-7 Current Listing Prices for Condos and Co-op Units in Bay Shore, Suffolk County...55 Table F-8 Current Listing Prices for Single-Family Homes in Brentwood, Suffolk County...55 Table F-9 Current Listing Prices for Single-Family Homes in Central Islip, Suffolk County...56 Table F-10 Current Listing Prices for Condos and Co-op Units in Central Islip, Suffolk County...56 Table F-11 Current Listing Prices for Single-Family Homes in West Babylon, Suffolk County...57 Table F-12 Current Listing Prices for Condos and Co-op Units in West Babylon, Suffolk County...57 Table F-13 Current Listing Prices in Baldwin, Nassau County...58 Table F-14 Current Listing Prices in Bellmore, Nassau County...58 Table F-15 Current Listing Prices in East Rockaway, Nassau County...59 Table F-16 Current Listing Prices in Freeport, Nassau County...59 Table F-17 Current Listing Prices in Levittown, Nassau County...60 Table F-18 Current Listing Prices in Lynbrook, Nassau County...60 Table F-19 Current Listing Prices in North Bellmore, Nassau County...61 Table F-20 Current Listing Prices in Oceanside, Nassau County...61 Table F-21 Current Listing Prices in Rockville Centre, Nassau County...62 Table F-22 Current Listing Prices in Roosevelt, Nassau County...62 iv

7 List of Figures Following Page ES-1 Potential Strategic Sites Residential Trade Area Retail Trade Area Nearby Retail Competition Major Retail Areas and Big Box Stores Potential Strategic Sites...47 v

8 List of Charts 1 Comparative Population Change: and Projected Population Growth: Household Income Distribution Retail Trade Area Stores by Retail Category...33 vi

9 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Economic and Market Trends Analysis, as part of the Wyandanch Brownfield Opportunity Area (BOA) Nomination, was commissioned by the Town of Babylon to evaluate the market potential for residential, retail, office, and industrial development in the hamlet of Wyandanch, within the Town of Babylon in Suffolk County, New York. This study is part of a broader effort by the Town of Babylon to designate an Urban Renewal Area and further redevelopment objectives stated in Wyandanch s 2003 adopted community plan, Wyandanch Rising prepared by Sustainable Long Island. As indicated in Wyandanch Rising, mixed-use residential and commercial downtown revitalization is a key component of the community s effort to enhance their retail options and promote a more traditional, pedestrian-friendly downtown. Therefore, this market analysis pays particular attention to development possibilities along Wyandanch s key commercial corridor, Straight Path, and the downtown core near the Wyandanch train station. For this report each type of potential use was analyzed individually residential, retail, office, and industrial to evaluate the possible demand for each use; however, they may be developed together as part of a mixed-use development. Presented below are the findings of each analysis, followed by recommendations, including strategic sites for development, which would help to meet the goals of Wyandanch Rising and support the results of the analysis. RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS To help determine a potential market for residential housing in Wyandanch, a Residential Trade Area was delineated, comprised of the geographic area in which existing residents are most likely to consider buying or renting in Wyandanch. The Residential Trade Area includes Suffolk County s Towns of Babylon and Islip, as well as Nassau County s Town of Hempstead and southern portions of the Town of Oyster Bay. A review of the demographic characteristics in four study areas: Wyandanch, the Town of Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island, identified the following key trends: The number of households in Wyandanch increased 13.8 percent from 1990 to 2000, while the Town of Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island increased by a more modest 5 to 7 percent during the same period. Wyandanch experienced the largest percentage increase in housing units (17.5 percent) compared to any other study area, jumping from 2,362 housing units in 1990 to 2,776 housing units in Looking ahead, the population is projected to grow 4.2 percent in the Town of Babylon between 2005 and 2015 and 9.0 percent by 2030 due to migration of households moving from Queens and Nassau County into Suffolk County, immigration from outside the United States, and larger household sizes than in previous decades. This projected growth will likely increase demand for new housing in Wyandanch. At $50,704, the median household income in Wyandanch is lower compared to the other study areas by a considerable margin 39.6 percent lower than the Residential Trade Area ($83,937), 32.3 percent lower than the Town of Babylon, and 40.7 percent lower than the median household income on Long Island ($85,511). In addition, at 34.5 percent, the percentage of households earning less than $30,000 is significantly higher in Wyandanch than Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, or Long Island, demonstrating that Wyandanch households are among the poorest in the area. 1

10 Economic and Market Trends Analysis Home ownership is less prevalent in Wyandanch compared to all other study areas. While over three-quarters of housing units were owner-occupied in 2000 in Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island, a comparatively low 57.8 percent of units in Wyandanch were owner-occupied. Single-family homes represent the vast majority of housing units in all study area percent of homes in Wyandanch were single-family homes in The majority of the housing units in all study areas had three or more bedrooms, although Wyandanch s share of three or more bedroom units in 2000 was the highest at 82.6 percent. Wyandanch has just one complex of multi-unit housing with over 10 units, which is still under construction. However, the Town of Babylon contains at total of 8,872 multi-family units, of which 5,682 are apartments and 3,190 are co-ops or condominiums; while the neighboring Town of Islip contains 15,954 multifamily units, with 8,907 apartments and 7,047 co-ops or condominiums. These nearby multiunit housing complexes demonstrate a potential demand for more dense housing in Wyandanch. At $150,318, the median housing value in Wyandanch was significantly lower than the other study areas where median housing values were all above $200,000. In contrast to the wide range of housing values across the study areas in 2000, median contract rents varied by only $32, from $1,045 in the Residential Trade Area to $1,077 in Wyandanch. Relatively high rents in Wyandanch may be the result of the prevalence of 3+ bedroom, single-family rental units when compared with the other study areas. Interviews with five local real estate brokers and an analysis of real estate comps within the Residential Trade Area confirmed the findings that homes in Wyandanch are more affordable than most other nearby communities. Brokers stated that homes in Wyandanch tend to sell for $250,000 to $450,000. I At 4.14, the average household size in Wyandanch remained higher than in the other study areas in Next, a market segmentation analysis was conducted to identify a target market of potential Wyandanch residents from a pool of households in the Residential Trade Area, based on lifestyle characteristics and consumption preferences. Ten market segments totaling 266,951 households were identified, including a primary target market of households with similar characteristics to existing Wyandanch residents, and a secondary target market with households that would likely be interested in the new type of transit-oriented development, with a larger variety of housing types, proposed by the community. Based on an estimated capture rate of 0.5 percent, Wyandanch could attract up to 1,335 new households from these markets. More conservatively, if Wyandanch were to capture 0.5 percent of households in the primary target market and 0.1 percent of the secondary target market, the hamlet would attract 459 new households. Although single-family homes will remain the predominant housing type in Wyandanch, the Town of Babylon and local Wyandanch residents, as indicated in Wyandanch Rising, are currently interested in evaluating other residential development types as well as seeking strategic locations for new development. In support of a greater mix of housing types and more pedestrian-friendly, transit-oriented mixed development, the following target market characteristics were revealed: Based on the current distribution of owner and renter households in the primary and secondary target markets, Wyandanch could attract between 141 and 307 renter-occupied 2

11 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination households and between 318 and 1,028 owner-occupied households. These results demonstrate a continued need for both renter and owner-occupied units. Many households in the target market do not own a vehicle and would therefore value living in close proximity to a train station. Many existing Wyandanch residents cannot afford to own their own single-family home, but may be able to purchase a townhome or condominium; therefore developing a mix of housing types would expand homeownership options for existing residents. Currently, rental units in Wyandanch tend to be large, as 3- and 4-bedroom units within singlefamily homes are common. Demand for larger housing, whether as an apartment, single-family home, or condominium, will likely continue as many households in the target market have large household sizes with extended family or children. Wyandanch has the opportunity to meet both types of demand through the development of a variety of housing sizes, although an emphasis on 3- and 4-bedroom units are likely to attract the primary target market to a greater degree. RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS To determine the potential supporting more retail in Wyandanch, particularly in the downtown core, a capture rate analysis was performed. This type of analysis measures the percentage of household expenditures for retail goods that are being captured by retailers in the trade area, as expressed in sales. If the total sales in the trade area are much lower than the area s expenditure potential, then residents are spending a large portion of their available dollars outside of the trade area, and the capture rate is low. For this analysis a Retail Trade Area was delineated that includes the hamlets of Wyandanch and Wheatley Heights, in addition to a small portion of West Babylon north of the Southern State Highway. This area is flanked by several major shopping centers and big box stores, but is itself generally devoid of retail stores and neighborhood services. The Retail Trade Area contains approximately 5,331 households with 20,900 residents. The analysis of retail expenditures and sales are grouped in three primary categories: Shopping goods. Consumers generally travel farther to compare price, quality, and variety of these types of goods, which typically include apparel and accessories, home furnishings, furniture, and equipment, sporting goods, books, stationery, jewelry, hobbies, toys, games, cameras and photographic supplies, gifts, luggage and leather goods, sewing needlework, and optical goods. Convenience goods. These goods do not require comparison shopping, but rather are more readily purchased in stores more convenient to home or work. Foods for home consumption, as well as dry goods for home use, such as housekeeping supplies, make up the largest portion of convenience goods sales, which are typically found in supermarkets, grocery stores, meat and fish markets, bakeries, fruit and vegetables markets, and candy and nut stores. The category also includes the sale of prescription and over-the-counter drugs, personal care items, and health and beauty aids commonly found in neighborhoods drug stores. Tobacco products, newspapers and magazines, fresh flowers, and pet food supplies make up the remainder of the convenience goods category. Eating and Drinking Places. This category includes sit-down and take-out restaurants, coffee shops, cafes, and bars. Total retail sales in the Retail Trade Area for the above categories were estimated to be $44.4 million; however, retail expenditures for these categories by local residents were roughly $

12 Economic and Market Trends Analysis million, indicating that Retail Trade Area stores are capturing just 38 percent of the existing expenditure potential. Retail Trade Area residents, therefore, are making retail purchases within the Retail Trade Area at a rate that is well below what is typically expected (i.e., 70 to 80 percent) for a retail concentration with a balanced mix of stores and neighborhood services. By individual category, capture rates for shopping goods were 45 percent, convenience goods were 46 percent, and eating and drinking places were 14 percent. Trade area households are likely traveling to nearby retail concentrations in East Farmingdale, Deer Park, West Babylon, Melville, and South Huntington for these types of items. This leakage of retail activity, approximately $72 million, presents an opportunity to capture a portion of this outflow of consumer expenditures by expanding and improving the retail mix in Wyandanch. AKRF s field surveys confirmed the capture rate analysis, as the Retail Trade Area s retail offering showed low concentrations of shopping goods and convenience goods retailers and a poor mix of stores. Stores such as full-size grocery stores, drug stores, book stores, and sporting goods stores, were largely absent. Although convenience goods stores account for approximately 27 percent of the local retail mix in the Retail Trade Area, this category is largely comprised of small delis and beauty supply shops rather than a more varied mix of businesses. Similarly, while small take-out food restaurants were common, there are no full-service restaurants in the downtown area. Based on the retail gaps and needs identified by the capture rate analysis, retail survey, and Wyandanch Rising, retail opportunities were identified which could provide the Retail Trade Area residents with more varied, convenient shopping that more closely resembles their typical expenditure patterns. An optimal capture rate for each retail category was determined 55 percent for shopping goods, 70 percent for convenience goods, and 25 percent for food and drinking places which, though conservative, should represent a realistic absorption of new retail development. Using median sales per square foot figures published by the Urban Land Institute (ULI), it is possible to equate these potential sales to the amount of new retail space that could be supported in downtown Wyandanch. The analysis shows that, in total, an additional 50,159 square feet of new retail development could be realistically absorbed by existing residents spending power, including approximately 21,500 square feet of convenience goods store space, 21,300 square feet of shopping goods space, and 7,300 square feet of eating and drinking space. Further, new residential development in Wyandanch would grow local expenditure potential, increasing the amount of new retail space that could be supported by local residents. If 459 new households move to Wyandanch, a conservative low estimate, the Retail Trade Area could absorb an additional 17,370 square feet of retail space assuming the same target capture rates used above. When added to the amount of new retail that could be absorbed by existing residents, the Retail Trade Area has the potential to support a total of about 67,500 square feet of new retail development. Based on existing and future retail expenditure estimates, Wyandanch has tremendous potential to attract convenience goods retailers, such as an additional small supermarket or food co-op, drugstore, and/or specialty food stores, as well as shopping goods retailers, most notably specialty stores, boutiques, or gift shops. New restaurants or coffee shops are another attractive option, as they would likely be easily absorbed by resident s existing spending power and may help stimulate other retail development by attracting people to Wyandanch s downtown. Unlike other nearby shopping centers that are only accessible by car or bus, much of the retail development in Wyandanch would be conveniently located near the train station, accessible to pedestrians including both residents and commuters. This proximity to transit may be an important 4

13 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination competitive advantage for Wyandanch s downtown as the local community tries to differentiate its downtown from the large, automobile-centric shopping centers that surround the trade area. Although not factored into the capture rate analysis, retail expenditures by visitors from outside the Retail Trade Area have the potential to further support local retailers. Of particular import in Wyandanch are the commuters who utilize approximately 1,000 parking spaces next to the Wyandanch train station. According to Wyandanch Rising, many of these riders likely live outside the trade area; therefore, they could potentially contribute to local buying power, especially if retail businesses begin to cater to this market. Projected population growth in Suffolk and Nassau Counties is expected to fuel increased ridership and parking demand at LIRR stations throughout Long Island, including Wyandanch, one of only a few stations that provides free commuter parking, without restrictions based on time or residency status. Even if these types of restrictions are implemented, however, it is unlikely to affect the parking (and potentially retail) demand. In fact, retail demand by commuters would likely increase in the future, as off-peak ridership, carpooling, and the number of commuter parking spaces increases. Providing sufficient parking for these future riders could be a key component in concentrating new retail development near the train station, allowing the Retail Trade Area to benefit from more retail options and amenities. INDUSTRIAL MARKET ANALYSIS Industrial activity in Wyandanch has been a difficult issue for the community, particularly since many of Wyandanch s industrial uses are located in the heart of its downtown. As stated in Wyandanch Rising, while community members don t wish to see this industrial base dry up or dissipate, many observed that some of the businesses reduce their quality of life and potential growth in other economic sectors. So while industrial businesses may be unwelcome neighbors at times, the tax revenue and jobs created for the local community are valuable to Wyandanch s revitalization effort. A key indicator of the sector s strength is its high average rental rate and low vacancy rate. As of the fourth quarter of 2004, the average asking rental rate in Suffolk County for industrial space was $6.50, slightly lower than Nassau County s rate ($6.75). Also, the vacancy rate at year end 2004 for Suffolk County was 5.4 percent, among the lowest vacancy rates in the nation. Continued growth in this sector is expected in Suffolk County. According to Real Estate Weekly, industrial vacancy rates on Long Island as a whole has continued to decrease since 2004, down to 4.0 percent in Employment in Wyandanch and Wheatley Heights industrial sectors, such as wholesale trade, manufacturing, construction, and waste remediation, has grown from 196 employees in 2002 to 454 employees in Existing businesses contribute $1.2 million in tax revenues to the Town of Babylon, and local realtors believe there is demand for light industrial/office park type development. These indicators demonstrate the value of industrial uses, in terms of the local economy, jobs, and tax revenues. Although industrial development should be encouraged, the placement of industrial uses should be carefully considered and should not conflict with retail and residential goals of the hamlet. Light industrial development should be focused in the areas which are already home to strong clusters of industrial businesses on Wyandanch Avenue, near the New Montefiore Cemetery west of Straight Path, and on Long Island Avenue between Straight Path and Elk Street. If a more direct and convenient access to the train station is created from the Long Island Avenue industrial area, retail uses may be more appropriate in this location. By focusing industrial businesses in these locations, Wyandanch and the Town of Babylon could benefit from the jobs and tax revenue 5

14 Economic and Market Trends Analysis generated by these businesses. This strategy also supports Wyandanch Rising, which recommends that light industry locate to the east and to the west of the Straight Path corridor. OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS The office market in Western Suffolk County is performing well, with low vacancy rates and high rents. Vacancy rates in the third quarter of 2006 were reported to be 11.9 percent for Class A office space, 8.4 percent for Class B, and just 3.9 percent for Class C; while average rental rates ranged from $19.37 per square foot for Class C to $28.30 per square foot for Class A. Western Suffolk County has a significant portion of the office buildings within the county, particularly Class A office buildings, with several more buildings under construction. At 30.7 percent, West Babylon and Babylon have a significant portion of the County s office space, although the buildings are generally older; the most recent building was constructed over 30 years ago in With a strong demand for office space and a lack of new or recent office product in the area, conditions are good for new office construction in Babylon. Although Wyandanch is not currently home to any office buildings, the availability of developable land in close proximity to the train station is a key asset. A mixed-use office/residential/retail development within walking distance of the station would likely be an attractive product for those seeking to minimize their journey-to-work trips and improve their quality of life by either living or working closer to a railroad station. Further, office uses in the hamlet s downtown core would benefit local retailers, in addition to the Town s tax base. Offices workers tend to generate more daytime activity and attract expenditures from outside the trade area for lunches and other purchases. A 2004 survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers reported that office workers in suburban areas within large metropolitan areas spent $143 at retail stores per week, including purchases made at lunch, during the workday, and after work before arriving home. Seventy-six percent of suburban office workers purchased their lunch outside the office at least once a week, and the average price of their lunch was about $7 per meal. These expenditures by office workers represent the potential for additional retail sales at stores within close proximity to office development. POTENTIAL STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT SITES Seven potential strategic sites, summarized below and illustrated in Figure ES-1, were identified that represent Wyandanch s most immediate development needs and opportunities. These strategic sites are all located within the proposed Urban Renewal Area/BOA and include brownfields, making them in particular need of redevelopment and potentially attractive to developers, as financial incentives may be made available as part of the BOA Plan currently underway for the area. Site A: TOD mixed-use development, public-gathering or entertainment space, and commuter parking. This approximately 20-acre site, northeast of the intersection of Straight Path and Acorn Street, acts as the northern gateway to Wyandanch s central business district and is therefore crucial to the creation of a more vibrant, successful downtown. Its proximity to the train station means it should be the core of the hamlet s transit-oriented development. Much of the site will need to accommodate commuter parking demand and transportationrelated uses, including a parking garage and intermodal station. Ground-floor retail with office space above should be the dominant use at this site, although it also provides a significant opportunity to act as a public-gathering place for local residents and workers, as Wyandanch currently lacks this type of central meeting place. Within the retail and office space at the site, 6

15 LEWIS TULIP RUSSELL STATE CUMBERBACH PARKWAY WYANDANCH NEW ARCH BOOKER 30TH PECAN ELDER CHERRY TROY TROY CENTERWOOD ESSEX FULTON CATALPA PARKWAY STAR PINE DEY GARRISON BOOKER PATTON 27TH 29TH 26TH LEVY BIRCH BROOKLYN H 28TH MOUNT 26TH 27TH BIRCH JEFFERSON CHESTNUT BEDFORD ASH 23RD 26TH PINE 22ND 24TH 25TH DEER OAK LEWIS DOE OLIVIA HENRY JACKSON 21ST 23RD 26TH ARLINGTON IRVING 20TH GARDEN CITY 25TH COMMONWEALTH WILLIAM DEER 18TH 23RD MERRITT D LAKE GRAND HEMLOCK RICHBERN LAKEWOOD ELM DOE ACORN WOODLAND A CR 2 STRAIGHT PATH C B D E ,200 Feet Figure ES-1 Potential Strategic Sites 13TH 16TH LONG ISLAND 15TH 16TH 17TH 17TH 18TH MORFORD HALLETT WALKER SCHLEIER 22ND WASHINGTON 21ST 23RD MARION 24TH 25TH 5TH 6TH HARRIMAN NICOLLS SMITH 9TH 10TH REYNOLDS 12TH HOWARD ANDREWS LOCUST N NICOLLS CHARLICK 18TH Project Area Suffolk County Tax Lots LIRR Tracks Potential Strategic Site A Potential Strategic Site B F G Potential Strategic Site C Potential Strategic Site D Potential Strategic Site E Potential Secondary Strategic Site F Potential Secondary Strategic Site G Potential Strategic Site Acreage A B 8.79 C 8.65 D 8.45 E 9.13 F 7.07 G 2.84

16 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination a plaza can be created with outdoor areas for restaurant seating, a farmers market, an ice skating rink, or a small entertainment venue for live music. These community-oriented uses can help attract people to the downtown, create additional retail activity, and can be easily integrated with the other uses at the site. Site B: TOD mixed-use development and open space. Another crucial site to Wyandanch s revitalization, Site B, southwest of the intersection of Straight Path and Long Island Avenue, can also benefit from its close proximity to the train station. With approximately nine acres this site has great potential as a mixed-use residential and retail development that acts as a buffer to the single-family homes to the west. Retail uses should be focused along Straight Path, helping to create the street wall necessary to maintain a traditional downtown feel. Public open space within the residential and/or retail areas, possibly for recreational activity, should also be encouraged, as this type of use is currently absent in the downtown core. Site C: Retail and residential. This approximately nine-acre site, bounded by Grand Boulevard, Commonwealth Drive, and Straight Path in the heart of downtown Wyandanch, is also crucial to creating the traditional downtown environment discussed in Wyandanch Rising. Ground-floor retail uses along Straight Path should maintain the current street wall, but also allow for residential uses above. Townhomes, apartment or condominium buildings should be created on the eastern portion of the site, as a buffer between the single-family homes directly to the east of Site C and the commercial activity along Straight Path. Construction of a new U.S. Post Office fronting on Straight Path in the southern portion of Site C is imminent. Post offices tend to be significant trip generators and would therefore likely attract people to Wyandanch s downtown. Complimentary neighborhood services uses, such as a bank, would therefore be ideally located on this site. Site D: Mixed-use infill. Site D, directly east of Straight Path between Irving Avenue and 22nd Street, presents an opportunity for continued traditional downtown retail development along Straight Path. Retail development, with residential above, should continue the street wall recommended for Site C to the north and Site B on the other side of Straight Path. The portion of Site D along Straight Path south of Mount Avenue, however, would likely be more suitable for residential use only, including townhomes, apartment buildings, or condominiums. These more dense residential uses would also be appropriate infill development along Jackson Street. Site E: Mixed-use residential and retail redevelopment. With over nine acres to the west of Straight Path between Wyandanch and Garrison Avenues, Site E provides ample space for major residential and retail redevelopment and the opportunity to create a more attractive southern gateway into the Straight Path corridor. Site E is too far from the train station to be considered part of the TOD efforts, and is not likely to attract pedestrians from downtown Wyandanch. Therefore, creating a small, self-sufficient retail cluster to serve the local population or those driving through Wyandanch would be ideal. Residential uses should be developed throughout the site, and could be viable above ground-floor retail uses along Straight Path. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT SITES These following two sites have less opportunity for new development within the sites themselves, but their central locations make them important to other nearby redevelopment efforts and to Wyandanch s revitalization as a whole: 7

17 Economic and Market Trends Analysis Site F: Retail or residential infill. This seven-acre site directly west of Site A across Straight Path, has tremendous potential to act as Wyandanch s community services hub, especially if the Martin Luther King Jr. Health Center and Head Start facilities move to this site. Visitors to these facilities would help breath life into Site F and create greater potential for retail activity in this area. The site s proximity to the train station and to commuter parking on the south side of Acorn Street should also help provide a strong retail base, particularly if the retail stores are attractive to commuters, like a coffee shop or book store. Mid-density residential development, such as townhomes or small apartment buildings, may also be appropriate infill within Site F. Site G: Industrial or retail infill. Site G occupies about 3 acres directly south of the LIRR tracks between Grand Boulevard and Deer Street. In its current state, without direct access to the train station, Site G should continue to operate or develop light industrial uses, which serve as a buffer between the train tracks and the residential community to the south. However, if a pedestrian bridge were to be constructed, creating a convenient and safe connection from Long Island Avenue to the train station, retail development could be encouraged at Site G. In addition, the westernmost tip of the site could be developed as a sitdown restaurant with parking, since the site would benefit from a location adjacent to the train station, as well as good visibility from Straight Path. 8

18 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination B. RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION AND STUDY AREA The following section examines residential market conditions and trends in Wyandanch and its vicinity. The purpose of the analysis is to explore and measure the potential demand for different types of new housing in Wyandanch and to uncover potential competitive advantages or weaknesses in Wyandanch s existing residential market. The analysis first reviews factors currently affecting the residential market, such as demographic and housing characteristics. Next, market segmentation data is presented to further explain the lifestyle characteristics and consumption preferences of existing residents in a local market area, followed by a review of comparable housing types and prices from other hamlets and villages in the Wyandanch vicinity. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed, in particular the potential pool of households that would most likely be interested in moving to or within Wyandanch and the types of housing these potential buyers or renters may demand. To help determine a potential market for residential housing in Wyandanch, a Residential Trade Area was delineated, comprised of the geographic area in which existing residents are most likely to consider buying or renting in Wyandanch. As illustrated in Figure 1, the Residential Trade Area includes Suffolk County s Town of Babylon and Town of Islip, as well as Nassau County s Town of Hempstead and southern portions of the Town of Oyster Bay, including Farmingdale Village, South Farmingdale, Plainedge, Massapequa, North Massapequa, Massapequa Park, and East Massapequa. These communities have median home values comparable to Wyandanch, and are generally oriented toward the South Shore of Long Island, like Wyandanch. Given that residents searching for housing opportunities tend to move from west to east on Long Island, it is assumed for this analysis that these communities would provide potential pools of prospective buyers and renters. DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Demographic factors can affect the market for various types of residential development. Population growth or decline, median age, household size and tenure, housing types and preferences, home values, and household income all impact the demand for particular styles of residential development. In this section these demographics and housing characteristics are reviewed and comparisons are made between the hamlet of Wyandanch ( Wyandanch ), the Town of Babylon ( Babylon ), the Residential Trade Area (described above), and the Nassau- Suffolk Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area ( Long Island ). 1 The data in this section is derived from the most recent U.S. Census in 2000 ( Census 2000 ), the Long Island Regional Planning Board (LIRPB), Suffolk County Planning Department, and Long Island Power Authority (LIPA). Recent Population Trends and Projections Wyandanch, Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island have all experienced population growth in the last 15 years a trend that is expected to continue until at least As shown in Table 1 and Chart 1, the population in Wyandanch experienced a significant increase 1 The Nassau-Suffolk Primary Statistical Area, used in the 2000 U.S. Census, was redefined in 2003 as the Nassau- Suffolk, NY Metropolitan Division of the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 9

19 H u n t i n g t o n S m i t h t o w n B r o o k h a v e n Q u e e n s QUEENS COUNTY NASSAU COUNTY N o r t h H e m p s t e a d H e m p s t e a d O y s t e r B a y SUFFOLK COUNTY NASSAU COUNTY B a b y l o n I s l i p Ê Town Boundaries Miles Residential Trade Area Figure 1 Residential Trade Area

20 Economic and Market Trends Analysis between 1990 and 2000, when the number of residents grew from 8,950 to 10,546 a gain of 17.8 percent. During this period the population in Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island grew as well, but at more modest rates of 4.4, 4.7, and 5.5 percent, respectively. Growth on Long Island, according to the Suffolk County Planning Department, can been attributed to a net growth in international immigration and a leveling out of previously declining household sizes that occurred as local residents aged and their children moved away. The number of foreign born residents has increased on Long Island since 1970, which represented 14.4 percent of its residents in 2000, revealing the immigrants contribution to population growth. 2 The total number of residents that moved to Long Island from abroad between 1995 and 2000 is 53,316 or roughly 2 percent of the total population. 3 A comparison of where people lived in 1995 and in 2000, according to U.S. Census data, revealed that Nassau and Suffolk County population levels are affected by domestic migration as well. Much of the migration is localized within both Nassau and Suffolk Counties; from 1995 to 2000, 67 percent of people on Long Island stayed in the same house they had been living in, while another 20 percent of people moved within their respective county. However, migration from outside the counties was significant as well, with each county receiving approximately 143,000 new residents during this period. In Nassau County most migration came from Queens (61,802 people), followed by Brooklyn (19,947 people). In Suffolk County, migration mostly originated from Nassau County with 48,645 people and Queens with 27, Table 1 Comparative Population Change : Hamlet of Wyandanch, Town of Babylon, Residential Trade Area, and Long Island Study Area Percent Change: Percent Change: Hamlet of Wyandanch 1 8,950 10,546 11, % 6.9% Town of Babylon 1 202, , , % 1.9% Residential Trade Area 2 1,339,295 1,402,421 1,421, % 1.3% Long Island 2 2,609,883 2,753,145 2,831, % 2.9% Sources: 1 U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 and 2000, Summary File 1 2 LIPA, 2005 Long Island Population Survey 2 Suffolk County Planning Department 3 Ibid 4 Ibid 10

21 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination 20% Chart 1 Comparative Population Change: and % 18% 16% 14% Percentage Growth 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 4% 2% 4% 2% 5% 1% 5% 3% 0% Hamlet of Wyandanch Town of Babylon Residential Trade Area Long Island Source: LIPA, 2005 Long Island Population Survey As shown in Table 2 and Chart 2, Babylon is expected to continue to grow between 2005 and 2030, albeit at a slower rate than Suffolk County and Long Island as a whole. The LIRPB estimates that Babylon s population will grow to 238,721 in 2030 an increase of 9.0 percent from The population on Long Island is expected to increase at a slightly faster rate of 11.6 percent to over 3.1 million in 2030, while the population in Suffolk County is expected to increase by almost 17 percent to 1,742,719. The majority of growth from 2005 to 2030 in Suffolk County is expected to occur in the eastern hamlets of Riverhead (53 percent), Southold (30 percent), and Southampton (28 percent). Projected population growth on Long Island is attributed to a gradual increase in household size and continued immigration, with a declining growth rate over time due to a decrease in developable land. 5 5 Suffolk County Planning Department 11

22 Economic and Market Trends Analysis Table 2 Projected Population Growth : Town of Babylon, Suffolk County, Nassau County, and Long Island Study Areas Town of Babylon Suffolk County Nassau County Long Island % Change % Change , , , , , , % 9.0% 1,493,028 1,557,325 1,615,364 1,667,036 1,710,196 1,742, % 16.7% 1,341,884 1,362,210 1,378,996 1,394,401 1,408,399 1,421, % 5.9% 2,834,912 2,919,534 2,994,360 3,061,437 3,118,595 3,163, % 11.6% Note: The population estimates for 2005 are different than those published by LIPA, used in Table 1. Source: LIRPB Projected Population Growth and Chart 2 Projected Population Growth: % 16.7% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 11.6% Population Growth 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 9.0% 5.9% 4.3% 4.0% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% Town of Babylon Suffolk County Nassau County Long Island Source: LIRPB 12

23 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination Age Distribution As shown in Table 3, the residents of Wyandanch were notably younger than those in Babylon and on Long Island as a whole, when measured as a percentage of total population in each area. In 2000, 36 percent of Wyandanch residents were younger than 18 years old, at least 10 percent more than the same age bracket in Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island. This under-18 population in Wyandanch grew significantly from 1990 levels (24 percent in 1990 to 36 percent in 2000). At the same time that Wyandanch s younger population was growing, the older population (over 65 years) was declining: from 11 percent in 1990 to 6 percent in The percentage of 65+ population in Wyandanch is less than half that of the other study areas. Table 3 Age Distribution: 1990, Years Years Years Years 65+ Years Study Area Hamlet of Wyandanch Town of Babylon Residential Trade Area 24% 36% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 13% 11% 6% 25% 26% 28% 22% 22% 25% 14% 15% 11% 12% 23% 26% 28% 21% 21% 25% 16% 16% 12% 13% Long Island 23% 25% 27% 20% 22% 25% 16% 16% 12% 13% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 and 2000, Summary File 1 Households and Household Size Reflecting the recent population growth discussed above, the number of households in Wyandanch, Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island all increased between 1990 and 2000, as shown in Table 4. The number of households in Wyandanch increased the most dramatically at 13.8 percent, while the Town of Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island increased by a more modest 5 to 7 percent during the same period. At 4.14, the average household size in Wyandanch remained higher than in the other study areas in While household size increased in Wyandanch from 4.00 in 1990, the average household sizes in the other areas declined slightly between 1990 and For example, Babylon s average household size decreased from 3.10 persons per household in 1990 to 3.03 in The LIRPB reported that, after declines for three decades, household sizes are now holding steady, in part due to the influx of young minority groups with their accompanying larger household sizes. 6 Table 4 Number of Households and Average Household Size: 1990, 2000 Total Households Average Household Size Study Area Change Change Hamlet of Wyandanch 2,219 2, % % Town of Babylon 64,506 69, % % Residential Trade Area 429, , % % Long Island 856, , % % Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 and 2000, Summary File 1 6 LIPA, 2005 Long Island Population Survey 13

24 Economic and Market Trends Analysis Household Income Between 1989 and 1999, the median household income decreased in all study areas after adjusting for inflation (see Table 5), though Wyandanch s median household income had the greatest decrease (12.8 percent) from $58,168 in 1989 to $50,704 in 1999 (in constant 2006 dollars). In comparison, the median household income decreased by 5.9 percent in Babylon, by 3.4 percent in the Residential Trade Area, and by 2.2 percent on Long Island as a whole. At $50,704, the median household income in Wyandanch is lower compared to the other study areas by a considerable margin 39.6 percent lower than the Residential Trade Area ($83,937), 32.3 percent lower than the Town of Babylon, and 40.7 percent lower than the median household income on Long Island ($85,511). Study Area Hamlet of Wyandanch 1989 Median Household Income (in 1989 dollars) 1999 Median Household Income (in 1999 dollars) Table 5 Median Household Income: 1989, Median Household Income (in 2006 dollars) 1999 Median Household Income (in 2006 dollars) $34,421 $40,664 $58,168 $50,704 Town of Babylon $47,074 $60,064 $79,550 $74,893 Residential Trade Area $51,424 $67,317 $86,901 $83,937 Long Island $51,725 $68,579 $87,410 $85,511 Note: Median income for the Residential Trade Area is the weighted average for the segments of the trade area. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 & 2000, Summary File 3. At 34.5 percent, the percentage of households earning less than $30,000 is significantly higher in Wyandanch than Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, or Long Island, demonstrating that Wyandanch households are among the poorest in the area. As shown in Table 6, the prevalence of middle income households ($30,000 to $74,999) was more comparable across the study areas (ranging from 36.5 to 41.5 of residents); however, households in the top two income categories were underrepresented in Wyandanch. For example, over a quarter of households in Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island had incomes between $75,000 and $124,999, while only 17.7 percent of households in the Wyandanch had incomes at this level. Further, only 6.3 percent of households in Wyandanch had incomes over $125,000, compared to 10.7 percent in Babylon, 15.8 percent in the Residential Trade Area, and 18.0 percent on Long Island. Chart 3 below illustrates the differences in income distribution among the study areas, with Wyandanch most heavily weighted towards poorer households. Study Area Hamlet of Wyandanch Less than $30,000 $30,000 to $74,999 Table Household Income Distribution $75,000 to $124,999 $125,000 and over 34.5% 41.5% 17.7% 6.3% Town of Babylon 21.9% 41.5% 25.9% 10.7% Residential Trade Area 18.9% 37.5% 27.8% 15.8% Long Island 18.5% 36.5% 26.9% 18.0% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 & 2000, Summary File 3 14

25 Town of Babylon Wyandanch BOA Nomination Chart Household Income Distribution 6% 11% 16% 18% 18% 26% 28% 27% 42% 42% 38% 37% 35% 22% 19% 19% Hamlet of Wyandanch Town of Babylon Residential Trade Area Long Island Source: Long Island Regional Planning Board Less than $30,000 $30,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $124,999 $125,000 and over Housing Inventory As shown in Table 7, Wyandanch experienced the largest percentage increase in housing units (17.5 percent) compared to any other study area, jumping from 2,362 housing units in 1990 to 2,776 housing units in While all study areas experienced an increase in the number of housing units between 1990 and 2000, the percentage growth in the other study areas ranged from just 4.4 percent and 6.5 percent. Home ownership is less prevalent in Wyandanch compared to all other study areas. While over three-quarters of housing units were owner-occupied in 2000 in Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island, a comparatively low 57.8 percent of units in Wyandanch were owneroccupied. While the distribution between owner-occupied and renter-occupied units remained fairly stable in Babylon, the Residential Trade Area, and Long Island between 1990 and 2000, Wyandanch experienced a 7.2 percent increase in renter-occupied units. According to Wyandanch Rising, the vacancy rate for residential housing in Wyandanch is 9 percent, with 259 vacant units out of 2,799 total units available in The report states that while this compares equivalently to an average national rental vacancy rate of about 9 percent, vacancy in the metro region is typically very low, inferring that the vacancy rate is relatively high compared to other communities on Long Island. 7 7 Wyandanch Rising, pg