Key trends in the changing geography of Sydney: Implications for understanding equity issues

Transcription

1 Key trends in the changing geography of Sydney: Implications for understanding equity issues Presentation to Shelter NSW Urban issues lecture series, Sydney, 13 October 2015 City Futures Research Centre Bill Randolph

2 Key trends in the restructuring of Sydney The spatial structure of Sydney is changing Under the pressure of population growth and continued concentration of economic activity into Australia s major cities Compounded by 30 years of neo-liberal policy Three major changes will reshape Sydney in the next 30 years: Urban renewal and higher densities uncertain social impacts Housing market trends reflects wealth and economic changes Polarisation and the suburbanisation of the working poor Understanding the processes behind these three processes will be critical to how we plan for the future of Sydney And how well our planning system both understands and incorporates these changes will have a critical impact on the future social outcomes for the city The augurs are not good!

3 Background growth pressures By 2031 the population of Sydney is projected to increase by 1.3 million people 2011: 4.3 million 2031: 5.9 million Assumes growth will be in smaller households 900k over 65; 1m under 15 we getting older and younger! Targets: 664,000 additional dwellings by 2031 Over and above homes demolished Major growth will be in renewal at higher density (< 80%?) Metro Plan relies upon the market to drive the delivery of the desired outcomes New Greater Sydney Commission will be tasked with implementing the growth targets based on 6 sub-regional plans Little attention to the socio-spatial restructuring that the market is already generating through renewal

4 A Plan for Growing Sydney: The new 2031 Metro Strategy

5 The dash for density continues: 2013 Draft Metropolitan Strategy housing targets Subregion 2021 Minimum Housing Targets 2031 Minimum Housing Targets Central 82, ,000 West Central & North West 74, ,000 West 16,000 39,000 South 22,000 42,000 South West 60, ,000 Total 273, ,000 Source: NSW Dept of Planning and Environment (2013)

6 The dash for density continues: 2013 Draft Metropolitan Strategy housing targets Subregion 2021 Minimum Housing Targets 2031 Minimum Housing Targets Central 82, ,000 West Central & North West 74, ,000 West 16,000 39,000 South 22,000 42,000 South West 60, ,000 Total 273, ,000 Source: NSW Dept of Planning and Environment (2013) The majority is likely to be in urban infill strata to reflect market demand

7 1. Higher Density and Urban Renewal

8 Urban Consolidation & Strategic Planning Urban Consolidation/Densification/The Compact City all versions of the same basic planning philosophy which seeks to make our cities denser in terms of population and economic activity through a mixture of changes to the form and function of the city. A counter to the problems of 21 st Century suburbanisation a 21 st Century solution to the 20 th Century city which has perceived to have failed on environmental, social and economic grounds. The failings of suburbia? High infrastructure costs; excessive car use; declining housing affordability; lack of housing choice; air pollution; excessive energy consumption; social isolation; poor quality urban amenity; it just uncool! Opportunities for redevelopment in the inner city? Redundant brown field and dockland sites; infill opportunities; underutilised infrastructure; exploiting value uplift; demand for inner city lifestyles.

9 Apartments now the dominant market across Australia. Source: Kruher, C. Rise of the unit market behind record dwelling approvals, Property Observer 7 September 2014

10 National dwelling approvals now at record levels... driven by high rise apartment development Source: Core Logic/RP Data Market Overview Sept 2015

11 But property prices are also at record highs (apart from Hobart).. so what s supply got to do with it? Source: Core Logic/RP Data Market Overview Sept 2015

12 Higher density has been a major source of new housing in Sydney for 30 years Infill dwellings as a % of total dwelling output , Sydney.. But are the easy to redevelop and larger sites drying up? And how do we redevelop existing town/neighbourhood centres?

13 Sydney The geography Metro Strategy: of higher density: Sub-regional inner city, but targets spreading by 2035

14 The market is already generating its own outcomes. but not in the right places! The 2005 Metro Plan policy for renewal failed STRATEGIC CENTRES LOCAL CENTRES OUTSIDE CENTRES A concerted effort will be required to increase this proportion [located in the centres] (Metro Strategy 2010, p63). But how? Global City Regional Cities Specialised Centres Urban Renewal outcomes since 2001 Dwellings % Target % 20, Major Centres 10, Towns Villages Neighbourhood Centres Suburban Area (not near centres) 30, ,

15 A Decade of Density: New strata registrations by Census tract Sydney Source: NSW Land and Property Services

16 So what to do? Well, let the market decide what it wants to do and the planning system will clear the way Source: A Plan for Growing Sydney (2014) p 66.

17 So what to do? Lets encourage the market by rezoning Source: A Plan for Growing Sydney (2014) p 66.

18 Ultimately, the market will decide what is renewed and what isn t Source: A Plan for Growing Sydney (2014) p 66.

19 Facilitating market led delivery by up-zoning Source: A Plan for Growing Sydney (2014) p 71

20 Density: The Visionaries

21 Sydney Metropolitan Strategy 2010 The TOD comes to town Transport Orientated Development (TOD) Presses all the buttons: its encourages people to walk and use public transport, uses existing infrastructure, creates vibrancy and only affects 10% of the city. 400 mtr Ped-Shed But is it achievable.?

22 Rob Adam s Urban Vision: The Corridor Solution Limit development to existing tram and road corridors Links activity centres together Leaves low density suburbs as green lungs Limits renewal to just 6% of the urban area But ignores the practical social outcomes entirely Source: Transforming Australian Cities 2009

23 Urban Growth NSW Vision of Sydney: The River of Urban Gold

24 Urban Task Force Vision of Sydney: Towers and Transport (TOD on steroids!) 5,000 towers on railway stations for 550,000 units and 1.5m people?

25 Density: Who are we talking about?

26 Who gets to live in the Compact City? Different locations different styles different markets

27 Who lives in apartments? Tenure by dwelling type, Sydney 2011 Source: ABS Census 2011

28 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Battlers 38% Many families with young children (almost 2/3 rds ). Lowest household income (over a third earning less than $50,000 p.a. gross). Almost 2/3 rds renting (62%), 24% are buyers & 14% own outright. Just over a third were born in Australia: Chinese, Indian and Vietnamese born figure highly. Canterbury/Bankstown, Hurstville, Auburn, Parramatta, Liverpool, Fairfield. Image:

29 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Young adults through to those in early mid-age. Many lone persons and young couples, most without children. Medium to high incomes (over $90,000 per year not uncommon). Over 2/3 rds are renting, ¼ are purchasing. Pyrmont, Zetland, Wolli Creek & Parramatta. Economically Engaged 24% Image: www-old.itcib.org

30 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Predominantly couples aged over 50 without any children. Almost entirely employed in higher end occupations with many households earning in excess of $130,000 p.a.. Over a half are renting & a quarter own their apartment outright. Eastern Suburbs, North Sydney, Drummoyne & Breakfast Point. Apartment Elite 23% Image:

31 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Older (over 65 year old) households. Over half live alone. Almost 40% own their apartment outright, the highest proportion of owners of all factor groups.. Over half were born in Australia & almost 10% were born in England. High income and low income. Rose Bay and North Shore or Canterbury/Bankstown, Hurstville and Parramatta. Residentially Retired 10% Image:

32 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Achieving Education 6% Younger (under 25 year old) households. Many living alone, some sharing with others. Almost 80% are renting, 10% own their apartment outright (possibly parents). Over 2/3 rds born overseas: China, India, Korea. Locations close to Universities and suburban transport nodes/centres Image:

33 High density in Sydney: different markets in different places 120% 100% 2% 0% Outer 80% 16% 32% 36% 41% 27% Percentage 60% 17% Middle 40% 20% 81% 68% 47% 36% 63% Inner 23% 11% 0% Apartment elite Achieving education Economically engaged Residentially retired Battlers Factor group

34 The dash for density continues: But it will be generationally driven.. Source: NSW Dept of Planning and Environment

35 New Strata: Age of Household Head Source: ABS Census 2011

36 New Strata: Household Incomes Source: ABS Census 2011

37 New Strata: Weekly rental payments Source: ABS Census 2011

38 The Compact City: Implications for the future structure of the city Implementing urban renewal will increasingly depend on the perceptions and behaviour of investors - many from overseas. Do we understand this market? How many more households are there waiting to take up the rental supply and who are they and where will they come from? How much will be affordable to lower income households? Will the sector remain as transitory accommodation for most? Will families adapt to higher density living? Are we building socially polarised cities based on dwelling type What happens to the Battler Belt will these become the new slums of the future? Does this matter?

39 2. The rise of the investor, price and rent inflation and the concentration of housing wealth

40 The Rise of the Residential Investor In , 1.3m investors claimed $14.3bn in tax relief for negatively geared property

41 The Rise of the Residential Investor. But lending restrictions may be beginning to bite Source: Core Logic/RP Data Market Overview Sept 2015

42 The Suburbanisation of Rental Returns: Rental Yields (Houses) by SA1 in Rental yield House (quintile) Top 10 SA2 Rental yield - House Bidwill - Hebersham - Emerton 6.42% Lethbridge Park - Tregear 6.12% Macquarie Fields - Glenfield 6.07% Badgerys Creek - Greendale 6.02% Wyong 6.01% Ashcroft - Busby - Miller 5.92% Kingswood - Werrington 5.87% Blue Haven - San Remo 5.84% Narara 5.83% St Marys - Colyton 5.80%

43 Percentage change in average sales price, Sydney,

44 House price inflation has driven the redistribution of wealth to home owners Net Worth Groups by Tenure, Australia, Low net worth Percentage share Middle net worth High net worth Outright owner Home buyer Rent private Rent public Total (incl other ) Source: ABS (2011b)

45 And is driving low income households out of home ownership Source: NSW Dept of Premier and Cabinet

46 The East West divide in Sydney property markets

47 The result: the Sydney Property Price Precipice in 2011 Strathfield

48 3. The Suburbanisation of Disadvantage

49 Analysing the drivers of suburbanising disadvantage the Sydney example Income polarisation evidence that this has increased: household income has indeed stretched Social cleansing of the inner city - gentrification Suburbanisation of low income households Strong correlation between income and house prices What are the key drivers of this change outright ownership and private rental; aging in place and lower employment/low wage workers?

50 Spatial distribution of disadvantage Sydney 1986 and 2011 The Urban Inversion The concentration of new economy jobs and middle to higher income households in inner cities Centralisation of economic activity reverses decades of suburbanisation of jobs 1986 Linked to manufacturing decline The reciprocal move of lower income and disadvantaged in the suburbs Similar processes in all Australian cities and UK, N America and other advanced economies The urban poor are now predominantly suburban Increasing exclusion from job rich inner city labour markets 2011

51 Change in the population living in highly disadvantaged Census tracts 1986 and Absolute Sydney <10 Km Km Km Km Km Percent <10 Km -82% Km 80% Km 139% Km 94% Km 38% 28% The poor have been squeezed out Source: 1986 and 2011 ABS Censuses

52

53 Polarisation of household incomes more of them and more of us, but fewer in the middle N.B. Loss of the middle income areas and an enlargement of the higher and lower income areas 2006

54 The drivers of suburban disadvantage in Sydney: tenure change? Suburbanisation of private rental: % change in private renting Suburbanisation of outright ownership: % change in outright owners

55 The drivers of suburban disadvantage in Sydney: aging and unemployment? Suburbanisation of the unemployed: % change in unemployed persons Suburbanisation of aging: % change in over 65 population

56 The drivers of suburban disadvantage in Sydney: low economic activity

57 It helps if you can get to where the jobs are easily..

58 The Up-side of Spatial Polarisation Where the Knowledge Workforce lives

59 Unpacking disadvantaged places Three year study of disadvantaged places in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne Based the analysis on the ABS censusbased index of deprivation Socio- Economic Indicator for Areas (SEIFA) Analysis of 2006 CDs (avg popn: 600) and suburbs (avg popn: 6,000) Disadvantaged area threshold: lowest SEIFA quintiles and deciles Disadvantaged places are not all the same! Key outputs of analysis Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane Disadvantaged suburbs Population in disadv suburbs as % of total city population % of disadv CDs in disadvantaged suburbs % 16% 72%

60 Disadvantaged suburbs in Sydney, 2006 SEIFA quintile and decile thresholds In Sydney, agglomerations of disadvantage to W, SW and far NE of metro area Red areas show lowest decile disadvantaged suburbs Geography of disadvantage radically reshaped since 1980s Key role of inner area gentrification Rental housing disproportionate, but public housing only 13%; home ownership: 54%

61 Classifying disadvantaged places Suburb-level census data analysis of: - Residential mobility - Demographic profile - Area socio-economic trajectory Cluster analysis identifies common permutations in indicator scores Four distinct disadvantaged area categories emerged Dimension A Residential mobility B Lifecycle stage/demo -graphic profile C Socioeconomic status change over time Indicator(s) % of hhlds moved in last 5 years % of hhlds moved from overseas in last 5 years % over 65s not in labour force % young people % single parent families % couples with dependent children % lone person households % pt change - unemployment rate % pt change - early school leavers % pt change NEETs % pt change - low income hhlds % pt change - low skilled workers

62 Typology results: Summary Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Housing market designation Isolate suburbs High social rental; median sales prices and rents far below citywide norms Lower price suburbs Relatively affordable house prices and distinct low rent market Marginal suburbs Remote from mainstream markets; high concentration of low sales prices & rents Dynamic improver suburbs Sales prices and rents moving rapidly towards city-wide norms Distinguishing socioeconomic characteristics High on young people & single parent households High on overseas movers High on residential mobility, (domestic movers), high on older people High on overseas movers, high on reduced unemployment & incidence of low status jobs

63 Disadvantaged suburbs in 2006 Socio-economic typology Disadvantaged area types highly spatially grouped and/or spatially distinctive Type 1 area distribution influenced by public housing geography Type 3 areas very peripheral Types 2 and 4 distinguished by greater accessibility

64 Survey of disadvantaged locations Face-to-face survey of 800 households in 2014 in the four areas identified from the cluster analysis To investigate the nature and extent of poverty and exclusion and the functioning of local housing markets Typology category Suburb Designation Number Characteristics 1 High on young people and single parent households; public housing Emerton Isolate suburbs 2 High on overseas movers, high on two parent families, low rent Auburn Lower price suburbs 3 High on residential mobility (domestic movers), high on older people & lone person households The Entrance Marginal suburbs 4 High on overseas movers, on reduced unemployment and reduced incidence of persons in low status jobs Warwick Farm Dynamic improver suburbs

65 Survey fieldwork locations

66 Survey fieldwork locations benchmarked against Sydney norms Socio-economic status indicators Housing tenure distribution Indicator Median monthly hhld income ($) 2011 % unemployed 2011 Auburn 4, Emerton 3, The Entrance 3, Warwick Farm 3, Greater Sydney 6, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Private rental Social housing Owned with mortgage Outright owner Source: ABS census profiles 2011 Census of Population and Housing

67 Income poverty and economic exclusion measures Monthly income distribution <$2k $2-5k $5-15k >$15k Trouble paying utility bills on time Sought financial help from family/friends Trouble paying car reg/insurance Unable to heat home Sought help from welfare org Pawned or sold item Went without meals Poverty indicators Deep poverty Source: City Futures Survey 2014

68 Income poverty and economic exclusion measures by tenure % of all households Owners Buying with mortgage Private renters Public renters All tenures Low income Economically excluded Deep poverty Source: City Futures Survey 2014

69 Households in deep poverty it s the private renter sector Among deep poverty cohort private renters greatly outnumber public renters because: Incidence of deep poverty in private renting not much less than for public housing But the number of private renters in disadvantaged suburbs is much greater Private renters 71% Owners 9% Public renters 20% Source: City Futures Survey 2014

70 Suburbanisation of disadvantage: summary Suburbanisation of disadvantage clearly in evidence across Sydney between 1986 and Reflects the impact of neo-liberal market principles in the welfare and economic reforms since Concentrations of disadvantaged are increasing in size and deepening in the older middle and outer suburbs The private housing market has to be the principle spatial driver behind these trends especially given that public housing plays a marginal role in Australia (5%) and has been in a slow decline since the 1990s The analysis has pointed to low income outright ownership, related to aging in place, and the suburbanisation of the low income private rental market as key drivers Strongly associated with income polarisation and the spatial mismatch in economic growth

71 Suburbanisation of disadvantage: does it matter? Less socially mobile populations increasingly in less accessible places potentially remote from jobs and services Sydney mono-centric structure with CBD and the Global Arc continue to dominate knowledge economy job growth Sydney: jobs growth in Global Arc averages 2.1% pa, but disadvantaged population increasingly dispersed to Western Sydney, where job growth is 0.5% pa Without assertive employment planning policy, Sydney faces policy choice: Protect and promote inner area affordable housing (e.g. via assertive inclusionary zoning) or Large-scale transport investment to facilitate greater commuting flows for the low paid

72 Metro Strategy: will it address the polarisation of Sydney? The Plan with the hole in the middle?

73 Would a 2 nd airport and a 2 nd city at Parramatta balance the Global Arc?

74 Any Questions?

75 Key trends in the changing geography of Sydney: Implications for understanding equity issues City Futures Research Centre