Regional Development Capacity Report

Transcription

1 Regional Development Capacity Report June 2012 Centre Regional Planning Agency 43 Gateway Drive State College, PA Centre Regional Planning Agency

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... 1 Introduction... 5 Data, Methodology and Assumptions... 7 Major Findings Development Capacity inside the RGB/SSA Major Findings Affecting the University Joint Area Authority (UAJA) Reporting and Updating Process LIST OF TABLES Table 1: 2012 Centre Region Development Capacity Analysis for Properties within the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit A: Map Existing Conditions Exhibit B: Map New Construction 2004 to 2011 Exhibit C: Aerial photo Development within the Regional Growth Boundary, Dale Summit area, 1971 and 2010 Exhibit D: Aerial photo Development within the Regional Growth Boundary, Whitehall Road 1971 and 2010 Exhibit E: Exhibit F: Map Forecast Growth and Development Capacity Map Development Capacity Analysis classifying parcels by residential use, non-residential use, or Penn State University Park Campus Exhibit G: Map Development Capacity Analysis showing parcels with or without approved development plans

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2012 Regional Development Capacity Report (REDCAP) is an estimate of the total amount of development potential within the existing Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area (RGB/SSA). The estimates in this report identify the development potential of vacant properties within the RGB/SSA using approved development plans, current subdivision ordinances, and current zoning ordinances. The major findings, detailed later in the REDCAP, conclude that there is sufficient development capacity inside the RGB/SSA to accommodate forecasted growth for a planning horizon of at least 2040 without the need to expand the RGB/SSA. The horizon of 2040 provides consistency with future Comprehensive Plan Update cycles and with the growth forecasting project completed for the Centre County Long Range Transportation Plan. Since the mid-1970s, the Centre Region has planned for and implemented a series of policies that direct growth to areas where infrastructure exists in order to preserve prime agricultural lands, natural areas, and other sensitive environmental resources in the Centre Region. The Centre Region used these growth management policies to establish the Regional Growth Boundary (RGB) that was included in the 2000 Centre Region Comprehensive Plan update. In the early 1990s, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) approved the Centre Region Act 537 Sewage Facilities Plan, which included a Sewer Service Area (SSA) but limited the average annual discharge from the UAJA s Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility to Spring Creek to 6.0 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) based on thermal loading restrictions. Spring Creek is a High- Quality Cold-Water Fishery, and therefore, the temperature of the water cannot exceed certain parameters. As a result, the Centre Region reviewed 14 alternatives to treat wastewater and increase the discharge limits at UAJA s Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility. In 2000, the Centre Region Council of Governments approved a Beneficial Reuse Project to address this issue. The Beneficial Reuse Project is an advanced wastewater treatment method that produces high quality water through microstraining, microfiltration, and reverse osmosis. The Centre Region uses this high quality water for groundwater recharge, economic development, or similar projects. More importantly, however, the Beneficial Reuse Project expands the wastewater discharge capacity for the Centre Region. Since 2006, both the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area have continued to be the primary tools for managing growth in the Region. Together, the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area have a significant influence on the location of growth and development in the Centre Region and affect the quality of life experienced by residents. As indicated in a community survey completed in the summer of 2011, residents of the Region continue to overwhelming support the Comprehensive Plan policies that implement the intent of the Regional Growth Boundary, including preservation of farming, preservation of open space, and directing the majority of growth to areas inside the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area. June 2012 Page 1 of 19

4 One fundamental question the REDCAP answers is whether there is sufficient development capacity to accommodate forecasted residential and non-residential growth within the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area. The major findings of the REDCAP include information on development capacity, including the number of potential dwelling units, amount of non-residential square footage, and number of vacant acres within the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area. The findings of the REDCAP can act as a tool for municipal officials to identify, plan for, strengthen, and amend existing policies and practices as appropriate. The REDCAP concludes that there is adequate land to accommodate growth in the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area for the foreseeable future. Municipal officials many want to consider a more detailed assessment of the following issues to prepare for the longer-term implementation of the RGB/SSA: 1. Should the Region consider amending the Development of Regional Impact (DRI) process, which is the method for expanding the RGB/SSA, given that there is sufficient development capacity inside the RGB/SSA? What other DRI criteria could the Centre Region review to assess impacts and how soon should that occur? 2. All municipalities, with the exception of Halfmoon Township, have land inside the RGB/SSA. How should the Centre Region address potential sewage disposal needs in Halfmoon Township if there is a desire to develop at a density that requires sewage disposal beyond individual or community on-lot disposal systems (COLDS)? 3. Should the municipalities consider a formal policy strengthening the prohibition of advanced wastewater treatment systems outside the RGB/SSA? Should the region consider a policy that designates UAJA as the sole provider of public sewer in the Region? The COG Public Services and Environmental Committee reaffirmed that the DRI Implementation Agreement language on COLDS does not include advanced treatment options and only includes COLDS as defined by the DEP and several municipalities. 4. Should the Centre Region consider funding a project to document and quantify the longterm costs of installing new infrastructure to serve new development versus the costs of using existing infrastructure (i.e. water, sewer, police, fire, transportation, and other public services)? 5. Are existing municipal zoning districts within and outside the RGB/SSA effectively implementing the current policy? If not, what changes to existing zoning districts should municipalities consider to make them more compatible with the RGB/SSA (currently underway)? June 2012 Page 2 of 19

5 6. Is the current distribution of beneficial reuse water flexible enough to satisfy the need for additional customers (50% environmental users and 50% business users), or does it leave the region vulnerable in the long-term? Should the Region consider changes to the beneficial reuse distribution system to maximize potential uses and delivery of beneficial water to new users in the future? The remainder of the report includes the following six sections: Introduction Data, Methodology and Assumptions Major Findings Development Capacity Inside the RGB/SSA Major Findings Affecting the University Area Joint Authority (UAJA) Reporting and Updating Process Exhibits June 2012 Page 3 of 19

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7 INTRODUCTION The Regional Development Capacity Report (REDCAP) provides a summary of the residential and non-residential development potential in the Centre Region. The REDCAP estimates the development capacity of land inside the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area (RGB/SSA) using approved plans and by calculating the development potential on vacant parcels using existing zoning district standards in each municipality. The purpose of the REDCAP is to: Estimate the number of dwelling units and the amount of non-residential square footage that could be developed inside the RGB/SSA. Measure the impact of development potential on sewage treatment capacity at the University Area Joint Authority (UAJA) Treatment Facility. Measure the impact of development potential on available sewage discharge capacity into Spring Creek. Serve as a decision support tool for Centre Region governing bodies for a number of issues, including, but not limited to: land use changes inside the RGB/SSA; requests to expand the RGB/SSA; advanced wastewater treatment systems outside the RGB/SSA; and infrastructure expansion of the UAJA treatment or discharge limit. The REDCAP focuses on the development potential of lands inside the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area (RGB/SSA) because the RGB/SSA is the primary tool the Centre Region uses to manage growth and regulate expansion of the public sewer system. This report used best available data in 2012 to make initial estimates. The REDCAP is subject to ongoing refinements in response to best available data and input from municipal staff, stakeholders, and policy makers. For example, this initial report does not include development potential for redevelopment projects in the Centre Region or the impacts of long-term water conservation efforts on wastewater treatment and discharge limits at UAJA. The Centre Region may consider exploring these areas in future reports. The Centre Regional Planning Agency (CRPA) has endeavored to improve the accuracy and completeness of the data first reported in the 2002 Vacant Land Inventory and 2010 Centre Region Growth Management Report. The CRPA will continue to monitor actual development and provide periodic updates of remaining development capacity, as outlined in the REDCAP report. The REDCAP report is not a market feasibility study, nor does it attempt to speculate on the availability of a particular parcel of land, the affordability of land, the availability or capacity of existing or future infrastructure, or the rate of development in the future. The major findings in the report inform future discussions by the COG municipalities to plan for, determine the effectiveness June 2012 Page 5 of 19

8 of, or amend plans, policies, or recommendations regarding the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area and treatment or discharge limit issues at UAJA, as well as other issues that may benefit from this information. June 2012 Page 6 of 19

9 DATA, METHODOLOGY, AND ASSUMPTIONS The results in the REDCAP were calculated by using a process that included the use of several interrelated pieces of data as well as the application of several development assumptions. The CRPA was able to estimate the potential number of dwelling units and the potential amount of nonresidential square footage that the vacant properties within the RGB/SSA could support by applying the development assumptions and methodology to vacant parcels located inside the RGB/SSA. These results allowed the CRPA to estimate the potential amount of additional wastewater that could be created by the development estimates, to determine the potential impact the wastewater estimates could have to UAJA treatment and discharge limits, and to determine whether there is enough vacant land inside the RGB/SSA to support forecasted growth until the year A summary of the process, including data sources and development assumptions, is provided below: 1. Obtain the most recent parcel level data for the Centre Region This step in the process provided a base map with parcel-based geography for the report. 2. Identify the Location and Status of Vacant Properties Located inside the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area (RGB/SSA) This step in the process identified vacant parcels inside the RGB/SSA, the total number of acres of vacant land in the Centre Region, and which vacant parcels had approved development plans. The following actions summarize this step: a. Determine which parcels inside the RGB/SSA are vacant using Geographic Information System (GIS) data and aerial photographs Vacant land inside the RGB/SSA was categorized as any parcel that does not have physical development upon it (including agricultural parcels) or is not used for another purpose. CRPA staff, Ferguson Township staff, and State College Borough staff inventoried and identified vacant parcels in each municipality. Staff conducted site visits where necessary and used permit data to confirm the status of individual parcels. b. Identify vacant parcels with approved development plans Vacant parcels were separated by those with approved development plans and those without approved development plans. Of the parcels identified as vacant, many were identified as having approved development plans that have not yet been constructed. Parcels with at least preliminary approval by the municipality were placed into a separate category. Remaining parcels were considered vacant without an approved development plan. June 2012 Page 7 of 19

10 3. Determine the available development capacity of vacant parcels inside the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area This step in the process estimated the development potential of vacant parcels inside the RGB/SSA. This includes development capacity on vacant parcels with approved development plans and vacant parcels without approved plans. A summary of the actions taken to estimate development potential of parcels identified as vacant and the development assumptions are summarized as follows: a. Vacant parcels with approved development plans For parcels categorized as vacant but with an approved development plan, the potential development capacity was identified as the number of dwelling units or non-residential square footage approved for the property. For projects that are partially constructed, the estimated development potential is the number of dwelling units or non-residential square footage not yet built. Proposed development on the University Park Campus and other Penn State properties in the Centre Region was estimated using the approved Penn State University Master Plan, which includes Innovation Park. The report uses the Mount Nittany Medical Center Master Plan to estimate future development on that parcel. b. Vacant parcels without approved development plans For parcels categorized as vacant without an approved development plan, the development potential of that property was estimated using several development assumptions. Environmental constraints, though considered, were not removed during the calculation of development potential, as only a few vacant properties were impacted and the overall results of the analysis were not affected. The following methodology and assumptions were used in determining the development capacity of parcels without approved development plans. i. Vacant residential parcels The report estimates the potential number of dwelling units on vacant, residentially zoned parcels by using existing zoning regulations, including the maximum number of dwelling units allowed in the zoning district. Prior to applying zoning district standards, the CRPA applied a land development ratio of 35 percent to account for setbacks, buffer yards driveways, streets, sidewalks, retention basins, open space, and other public infrastructure that is commonly provided in a new development. The remaining 65 percent of land in the parcel was used to estimate the total number of potential dwelling units. June 2012 Page 8 of 19

11 ii. Vacant non-residential parcels (commercial, industrial, office) The potential square footage of non-residential development was calculated by using a maximum lot coverage standard of 30 percent in all municipalities, with the exception of State College Borough. Lot coverage in the Borough generally exceeds typical lot coverage in other municipalities. Individual parcels are detailed in the summary tables at the end of the report. iii. Vacant land with mixed use zoning districts Municipal planners estimated the development potential of vacant land located in mixed use zoning districts by using development standards in the district and by examining historic development patterns. Generally, development potential was based upon a lot coverage of 30 percent. Lot coverage in the Borough of State College was increased based upon historic development patterns continuing into the future. 4. Determine the potential to accommodate forecasted growth inside the RGB/SSA for a planning horizon of 2040 Most of the data presented in this report represents a buildout scenario inside the RGB/SSA. In other words, the results represent the maximum amount of development that could occur based upon existing zoning and approved plans. The CRPA also examined the potential for the RGB/SSA to accommodate forecasted growth to the year This 28-year period coincides with growth forecasting prepared in 2009 and 2010 for use with modeling used in the Centre County Long Range Transportation Plan Update. The Centre Region municipalities approved the growth forecasting numbers, and these estimates are used for a variety of other projects in the Region. The regional results of the Centre County Growth Forecasting Project are outlined below and are further discussed in the Findings section of this report. a. Forecasted increase in dwelling units The growth forecast project estimated that the Centre Region could grow by 9,278 dwelling units between 2010 and b. Forecasted increase in non-residential square footage The growth forecast project estimated that the Centre Region could grow by 5,784,193 square feet of non-residential development (retail, retail/hotel, office/light industrial and heavy industrial) between 2010 and June 2012 Page 9 of 19

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13 MAJOR FINDINGS DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY INSIDE THE RGB/SSA The following is a summary of the regional development capacity of vacant land inside the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area in Detailed information is provided in Table 1, 2012 Centre Region Development Capacity Analysis for Properties within the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area: VACANT LAND SUMMARY 2012 (not including PSU Campus, Mount Nittany Medical Center, or Innovation Park) Total Vacant Land: The RGB/SSA contains approximately 4,033 acres of vacant land. Vacant Land with Approved Plans: Approximately 2,596 acres of vacant land inside the RGB/SSA have an approved development project that has not yet been constructed. Vacant Land: Approximately 1,438 acres of vacant land inside the RGB/SSA do not have any type of development project approved. DWELLING UNIT SUMMARY 2012 Total Dwelling Units: There is an estimated development potential of 12,979 dwelling units inside the RGB/SSA. Approved Dwelling Units: There are approximately 9,183 dwelling units approved but not constructed in existing projects inside the RGB/SSA. Potential Dwelling Units: Based upon existing zoning, there is the potential to develop 3,796 dwelling units inside the RGB/SSA on vacant lands that do not have approved development projects. NON-RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY 2012 Total Non-residential Development: There is approximately 6,817,757 square feet of non-residential development potential inside the RGB/SSA. Approved Non-residential Development: There is approximately 2,574,744 square feet of non-residential development approved but not constructed inside the RGB/SSA. This estimate does not include University Park Campus or other Penn State University property. Potential Non-residential Development: Based upon existing zoning, there is the potential to develop approximately 4,243,013 square feet of non-residential square footage inside the RGB/SSA on vacant lands that do not have approved development projects. June 2012 Page 11 of 19

14 UNIVERSITY PARK CAMPUS AND PENN STATE UNIVERSITY PROPERTY SUMMARY 2012 Proposed Non-residential Development: There is approximately 6,192,395 square feet of non-residential development, which includes 1,243 beds in dorm facilities, identified on the PSU University Park Campus Master Plan and other Penn State University property. This includes master plans for the Mount Nittany Medical Center and Innovation Park. ADEQUACY OF LAND INSIDE THE RGB/SSA TO ACCOMMODATE GROWTH TO THE YEAR 2040 The following is a summary of the results of the 2009 Growth Forecasting Project. The Growth Forecasting Project included all parcels in the Centre Region, including those outside of the RGB/SSA. Forecast Dwelling Units and Potential Development Capacity: Growth forecasts prepared in 2009 and 2010 indicate the Centre Region could add approximately 9,278 dwelling units by the year The REDCAP report estimates that there is total development potential of 12,979 dwelling units inside the RGB/SSA. Currently there are 9,183 approved dwelling units inside the RGB/SSA, which have at least preliminary approval for development. These approved dwelling units can satisfy the anticipated need for new dwelling units over the next 28 years. Forecast Non-residential Development and Potential Development Capacity: The Centre Region is forecast to add approximately 5,784,193 square feet of non-residential development by the year There is approximately 6,817,757 square feet of nonresidential development potential inside the RGB/SSA. June 2012 Page 12 of 19

15 MUNICIPALITY APPROVED ACRES 2012 CENTRE REGION DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR PROPERTIES WITHIN THE REGIONAL GROWTH BOUNDARY AND SEWER SERVICE AREA APPROVED DWELLING UNITS APPROVED NON-RESIDENTIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE VACANT ACRES POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS POTENTIAL NON-RESIDENTIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE TOTAL ACRES TOTAL DWELLING UNITS TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE COLLEGE TOWNSHIP 219 ac 669 du 39,710 sqft 717 ac 2,2 du 2,411,792 sqft 936 ac 2,931 du 2,1,502 sqft FERGUSON TOWNSHIP 708 3, , ,824 1,004 3, ,824 HARRIS TOWNSHIP , , ,092 PATTON TOWNSHIP 1,359 4,699 2,034, ,425 1,5 4,888 2,975,959 STATE COLLEGE BOROUGH , , ,380 CENTRE REGION TOTAL (within RGB/SSA) 2,596 ac 9,183 du 2,574,744 sqft 1,438 ac 3,796 du 4,243,013 sqft 4,033 ac 12,979 du 6,817,757 sqft PENN STATE APPROVED ACRES APPROVED DWELLING UNITS APPROVED NON-RESIDENTIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE VACANT ACRES POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS POTENTIAL NON-RESIDENTIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE TOTAL ACRES TOTAL DWELLING UNITS TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL SQUARE FOOTAGE UNIVERSITY PARK CAMPUS 2,148 ac 0 du 232,384 sqft 0 ac 190 du 4,850,733 sqft 2,148 ac 190 du 5,083,117 sqft MOUNT NITTANY MEDICAL CENTER , , ,278 INNOVATION PARK , ,000 PENN STATE TOTAL 2,151 ac 0 du 424,733 sqft 49 ac 190 du 5,767,622 sqft 2,200 ac 190 du 6,192,395 sqft Source: Centre Regional Planning Agency, June 2012 Notes: Penn State information is based on the master plans for the Mount Nittany Medical Center, Innovation Park, and Penn State's University Park Campus. Penn State's non-residential square footage includes 1,243 beds in new dorm room space.

16 MAJOR FINDINGS AFFECTING THE UNIVERSITY AREA JOINT AUTHORITY (UAJA) The amount of treatment and the amount of discharge in millions of gallons per day (MGD) are the two most important numbers that can limit the ability of the UAJA Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility to treat and discharge wastewater. Currently UAJA has the infrastructure in place to treat up to 9.0 MGD of wastewater through primary treatment methods. The UAJA can expand the Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility to treat up to 12.0 MGD through primary treatment. Conversely, the UAJA Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility is only permitted to discharge 6.0 MGD to Spring Creek. All wastewater beyond 6.0 MGD must receive primary, secondary, and tertiary treatment through the beneficial reuse process before being discharged to customers. Customers can include environmental uses such as the Kissinger Meadows Wetland or commercial uses such as Centre Concrete. UAJA currently has the infrastructure in place to treat and discharge 1.0 MGD of wastewater to the beneficial reuse standards, providing a total of 7.0 MGD of discharge. The beneficial reuse system can be expanded to a total of 3.0 MGD, allowing the Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility to treat and discharge 9.0 MGD; however, capital investments are required and customers need to be identified in order to discharge the wastewater flows above 6.0 MGD. Average annual daily discharge into Spring Creek is expected to reach about 5.1 MGD in 2016 when State College Borough conveys municipal sewage to the Spring Creek Plant. This does not include additional wastewater conveyed to the Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility from development and redevelopment between now and Total treatment at UAJA is limited to 7.0 MGD until there is a capital improvement to expand the beneficial reuse program. By 2017, there is expected to be approximately 1.9 MGD of discharge capacity remaining at the Spring Creek Pollution Control Facility, including 0.9 MGD of average annual discharge to Spring Creek and 1.0 MGD of discharge to beneficial reuse customers. For planning purposes, UAJA assumes one Equivalent Dwelling Unit (EDU) accounts for 175 gallons of wastewater per day. The remaining 1.9 MGD of existing discharge capacity will equate to approximately 11,000 EDUs. At an average annual growth rate of 300 EDUs, 11,000 EDUs would be absorbed in 37 years. At an average annual growth rate of 400 EDUs, 11,000 EDUs would be absorbed in 28 years. At an average annual growth rate of 500 EDUs, 11,000 EDUs would be absorbed in 22 years. June 2012 Page 13 of 19

17 UAJA SUMMARY 2012 Discharge Into Spring Creek: The UAJA Pollution Control Facility currently discharges approximately 4.5 million gallons a day (MGD) into Spring Creek. The 4.5 MGD is a daily average measured over a one-year period. The maximum allowable average daily discharge into Spring Creek is 6.0 MGD. Beneficial Reuse Water: Currently the UAJA beneficial reuse water program can treat and deliver up to 1.0 MGD to beneficial reuse customers. Expansion of Beneficial Reuse Water: The beneficial reuse water program can be expanded up to a total of 3.0 MGD in the current building with a capital expenditure. June 2012 Page 14 of 19

18 REPORTING AND UPDATING PROCESS As mentioned previously, the REDCAP provides a summary of potential development capacity inside the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area (RGB/SSA) and is primarily informational in nature. The Centre Region should conduct an inventory of vacant land, monitor development of approved projects, and monitor sewage treatment and discharge constraints at UAJA on a regular, long-term basis. Regular monitoring provides the ability to assess the cumulative impacts of actual development on the amount of vacant land and development potential available in the RGB/SSA, as well as impacts to the treatment and discharge limits available at UAJA over time. This information can assist COG municipalities with planning for the future in several ways, including: a. Estimating the number of dwelling units needed to support anticipated population growth and determining the absorption of those dwelling units over time based upon actual development in approved projects. This action should be conducted on a regular basis and integrated with future county-wide growth forecasting efforts. b. More accurately understanding the impacts that might result from large project(s) that may use substantially more sewage treatment and discharge in UAJA at any point in the future. c. Using the report as a tool to more accurately determine how and when growth in the region may influence the location of the RGB/SSA, and considering what changes, if any, to existing regional policies are needed to address those issues. d. More accurately planning for, and determining when capital improvements may be needed, at UAJA to accommodate sewage treatment and discharge or expansion of the beneficial reuse program. The CRPA recommends updating the information in the REDCAP in the following manner: Updating the vacant land inventory and potential development capacity estimates on an annual basis and providing this information along with annual development statistics in the CRPC Annual Report to the COG General Forum. Monitoring the actual wastewater treatment and discharge numbers from UAJA on an annual basis and reporting the results in the CRPC Annual Report to the COG General Forum. Informing the COG General Forum, as needed, of any projects that will significantly increase sewage treatment demand at UAJA. Preparing a revised REDCAP report to the COG General Forum every five years, with the first update due in June 2012 Page 15 of 19

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20 EXHIBITS Exhibit A: Existing Conditions Exhibit B: This exhibit shows the location of building permits issued between 2004 and Exhibit C: Aerial photo showing the development inside and outside the Regional Growth Boundary in the Dale Summit area between 1971 and Exhibit D: Aerial photo showing the development pattern inside and outside the Regional Growth Boundary in the Whitehall Road area between 1971 and Exhibit E: Forecast Growth and Development Capacity summarizes anticipated growth in the Region from 2010 to The information is this exhibit was prepared during the Growth Forecasting Project completed in conjunction with the Centre County Long Range Transportation Plan. Exhibit F: This exhibit illustrates the development capacity for individual parcels and classifies parcels by residential use, non-residential use or Penn State University Park Campus Exhibit G: This exhibit summarizes development capacity for individual parcels within the Regional Growth Boundary and classifies parcels by those with or without approved development plans June 2012 Page 17 of 19

21 The data below provides a snapshot of select socioeconomic characteristics of the Centre Region. The 2010 U.S. Census indicates a total population of 92,096 residents in the Centre Region and 34,034 dwelling units (an average of 2.64 people per household). The total land area of the Centre Region is 150 square miles, or 96,762 acres Population by Municipality IN T E RT SAT E PATTON IN T E RT SAT E ,034 9,521 17,690 College Township Ferguson Township Halfmoon Township Harris Township Patton Township BUSINESS STAT E COL LEGE BOR O COL LEGE 15,311 4,873 State College Borough 2,667 HALFM OON BUSINESS Land Area in Square Miles by Municipality HARRIS College Township Ferguson Township Halfmoon Township Harris Township Patton Township FER GU SON State College Borough Numberof Dwelling Units by Municipality 13,007 7,501 7,306 3, ,148 College Township Ferguson Township Halfmoon Township Miles Harris Township Dwelling Units Patton Township State College Borough The Centre Region Exhibit A - Existing Conditions Projection: PA State Plane NA D 83, Nor th Zone Map prepared by: Stev en Arnold - The Land Analys is Lab at Penn State for the Centr e Regional Planning Agenc y Revision /31/12 Data S ource: Centre County GIS, US GS, The Centre Regional P lanning A gency, The Land A naly sis Lab at PSU, and The Centre Region Codes Offic e Miles Regional Growth Boundary Municipal Boundary Da te: 6/15/2012

22 Similar to many other urbanized areas throughout the United States, the Centre Region experienced a steady increase in the number of residential building permits, as evidenced in the graph below, between 2004 and As seen throughout the country, the number of new residential building permits declined sharply in 2007 and continued this pattern in subsequent years. Of the 1,884 building permits for new construction issued between 2004 and 2011, 90% were issued for properties located within the Regional Growth Boundary. IN T E RT SAT E PA T T O N IN T E RT SAT E C O L L E G E BUSINESS New Residential Building Permits H A L F M O O N S t a t e C o l l e g e BUSINESS H A R R I S Building Permits Cumulative Total F E R G U S O N New Non-Residential Square Footage , , , , ,773 95, , , Square Footage * Does not include Penn State University. The Centre Region Exhibit B - New Construction Projection: PA State Plane NAD 83, North Zone Map prepared by: S tev en Arnold - The Land Analys is Lab at Penn State for the Centre Regional Planning Agency Revision /31/12 Data S ource: Centre County G IS, USG S, The Centr e Regional P lanning A genc y, The Land A naly sis Lab at P SU, and The Centre Region Codes Office Miles Non-Residential Construction Square Footage of Structure ,500 15,501-38,000 38,001-90,000 Greater than 90,000 New Construction Type of Structure! Apartment! Condo! Townhome! Single Family Residential Regional Growth Boundary County Boundary Municipal Boundary Da te: 6/15/2012

23 Exhibit C - Development within the Regional Growth Boundary Dale Summit Area 1971 & 2010 Houserville Nittany Mall 150 Centre County Memorial Park Lemont 1971 Houserville 150 Centre County Memorial Park Nittany Mall Lemont 2010

24 Exhibit D - Development within the Regional Growth Boundary Whitehall Road 1971 & 2010 W College Ave Ferguson Township Whitehall Road State College High School State College Borough BUSINESS College Township 1971 W College Ave State College High School State College Borough Ferguson Township Whitehall Road BUSINESS College Township 2010

25 IN T E RT SAT E PATTON BUSINESS IN T E RT SAT E COLLE GE In 2009, the Centre County Metropolitan Planning Organization completed the Centre County Growth Forecast Project which forecasts the growth of population, dwelling units, and nonresidential square footage for all municipalities in Centre County to the year While not a precise science, growth forecasts provide insight into potential future growth in the Centre Region and is a valuable tool in long range planning. Results of the Centre County Growth Forecasts were reviewed and approved by all municipalities. CRPA staff compared the forecasted growth of dwelling units and non-residential square footage to the potential development capacity of the remaining vacant land within the Regional Growth Boundary/Sewer Service Area (RGB/SSA) by using the Regional Development Capacity Report estimates for development potential. As shown in the graphs below, adequate land exists within the RGB/SSA to accommodate forecasted residential and non-residential growth beyond the year STATE COLLE GE BORO HALFMOON BUSINESS Forecast Dwelling Units HARRIS 9,278 12,979 FE RGUSON Forecast DUs Total Potential DUs Number of Dwelling Units (DUs) Forecast of Non-Residential Square Footage ,927,035 5,784,193 Forecast * Total Capacity Square Footage * This number includes Mount Nittany Medical Center and Innovation Park properties. The Centre Region Exhibit E - Forecast Growth & Development Capacity Projection: PA State Plane NA D 83, Nor th Zone Map prepared by: Stev en Arnold - The Land Analys is Lab at Penn State for the Centr e Regional Planning Agenc y Revision /31/12 Data S ource: Centre County GIS, US GS, The Centre Regional P lanning A gency, The Land A naly sis Lab at PSU, and The Centre Region Codes Offic e Miles Regional Growth Boundary Municipal Boundary Da te: 6/19/2012

26 Vacant land, as identified on this map, is a representation of properties within the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area that fall into one of three categories. These categories include property that: 1. Has a land development plan approved by a municipality but has not yet been built 2. Has a land development plan approved by a municipality but only a portion of the project is complete, leaving the remaining portion un-built 3. Has no development activity currently proposed IN T E RT SAT E PATTON 550 IN T E RT SAT E When development plans exist, the information pertaining to dwelling units or square feet of nonresidential development have been used to determine buildout of the property. If no development plan exists then current conditions such as zoning and lot coverage have been used to estimate potential buildout of the property. COLL EGE BUSINESS Total Vacant Acres STATE COLL EGE BORO 43 COLLEGE TOWNSHIP 550 HALFMOON BUSINESS HARRIS 1, ,004 FERGUSON TOWNSHIP HARRIS TOWNSHIP PATTON TOWNSHIP STATE COLLEGE BOROUGH Total Dwelling Units 174 FER GUSON COLLEGE TOWNSHIP 4,888 2,931 FERGUSON TOWNSHIP HARRIS TOWNSHIP 1,209 3,777 PATTON TOWNSHIP STATE COLLEGE BOROUGH Total Non-Residential Square Footage 151, ,092 2,975,959 2,1, ,824 COLLEGE TOWNSHIP FERGUSON TOWNSHIP HARRIS TOWNSHIP PATTON TOWNSHIP STATE COLLEGE BOROUGH Centre Region Vacant Land 2012 Exhibit F - Development Capacity Analysis Projection: PA S tate Plane NA D 83, North Zone Map prepared by : S teven Arnold - The Land Analys is Lab at Penn S tate for the Centre Regional Planning Agency Revision /31/12 Data S ourc e: Centre County GIS, US GS, The Centre Regional Planning Agenc y, The Land Analysis Lab at P SU, and The Centre Region Codes Offic e Miles 2012 Vacant Land by Type Residential Non-Residential Mixed Use Regional Growth Boundary Penn State-University Park Campus Municipal Boundary Da te: 6/19/2012

27 Vacant land, as identified on this map, is a representation of properties within the Regional Growth Boundary and Sewer Service Area that fall into one of three categories. These categories include property that: IN T E RT SAT E PATTON 550 IN T E RT SAT E COLL EGE 1. Has a land development plan approved by a municipality but has not yet been built 2. Has a land development plan approved by a municipality but only a portion of the project is complete, leaving the remaining portion un-built 3. Has no development activity currently proposed When development plans exist, the information pertaining to dwelling units or square feet of nonresidential development have been used to determine buildout of the property. If no development plan exists then current conditions such as zoning and lot coverage have been used to estimate potential buildout of the property. BUSINESS HALFMOON STATE COLL EGE BORO BUSINESS 43 1,5 Total Vacant Acres 936 COLLEGE TOWNSHIP FERGUSON TOWNSHIP HARRIS TOWNSHIP 550 HARRIS 506 1,004 PATTON TOWNSHIP STATE COLLEGE BOROUGH FER GUSON 174 Total Dwelling Units COLLEGE TOWNSHIP 4,888 1,209 2,931 3,777 FERGUSON TOWNSHIP HARRIS TOWNSHIP PATTON TOWNSHIP STATE COLLEGE BOROUGH Total Non-Residential Square Footage 151, ,092 2,975,959 2,1, ,824 COLLEGE TOWNSHIP FERGUSON TOWNSHIP HARRIS TOWNSHIP PATTON TOWNSHIP STATE COLLEGE BOROUGH Centre Region Vacant Land 2012 Exhibit G - Development Capacity Analysis Projection: PA S tate Plane NA D 83, North Zone Map prepared by : S teven Arnold - The Land Analys is Lab at Penn S tate for the Centre Regional Planning Agency Revision /31/12 Data S ourc e: Centre County GIS, US GS, The Centr e Regional Planning Agenc y, The Land Analysis Lab at P SU, and The Centre Region Codes Offic e Miles 2012 Vacant Land Approved Plan Exists No Approved Plan Exists Regional Growth Boundary Penn State-University Park Campus Municipal Boundary Da te: 6/19/2012

28 Executive Summary Regional Development Capacity Report June 2012 Centre Regional Planning Agency 43 Gateway Drive State College, PA Centre Regional Planning Agency