TASK 2 INITIAL REVIEW AND ANALYSIS U.S. 301/GALL BOULEVARD CORRIDOR FORM-BASED CODE

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1 TASK 2 INITIAL REVIEW AND ANALYSIS U.S. 301/GALL BOULEVARD CORRIDOR FORM-BASED CODE INTRODUCTION Using the framework established by the U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Regulating Plan (Regulating Plan), the City of Zephyrhills is creating form-based zoning, development, and public infrastructure standards for the U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Area (Corridor Area). The Regulating Plan identifies mixed-use development (integrated residential and non-residential uses) and public open space offering opportunities for housing, employment, shopping, recreation, and entertainment in a highly walkable context. Once accepted by the community and adopted by City Council, the form-based code would apply only to new development and redevelopment as defined in the Zephyrhills Land Development Code within the Corridor Area. Form-based Code Project The form-based code project (project) has five tasks: Task 1. Community Coordination and Engagement Task 2. Initial Review and Analysis (including corridor build-out scenarios) Task 3. Form-based Code Development Task 4 Form-based Code Refinement Task 5. Form-based Code Workshops and Public Hearings This report discusses and documents the results of Task 2 Initial Review and Analysis. Task 2 has two components: Evaluate build-out scenarios for the Corridor Area and recommend a preferred build-out scenario Calibrate the Regulating Plan (created in 2014) based on the findings and conclusions of Task 2 Corridor Vision The Zephyrhills Community Redevelopment Plan envisions the transformation of the U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard corridor within the Community Redevelopment Area from a strip-commercial highway to a mix of integrated commercial, office, and residential uses arranged in mini activity centers that are equally accessible to pedestrians and motor vehicles. The corridor would feature the characteristics of a traditional, Main Street, including buildings located adjacent to the sidewalk and a network of complete streets that comfortably accommodate all users. Regulating Plan The Regulating Plan is the framework for the Corridor Area form-based code. The framework has guidelines for three interrelated components of the built environment: districts, streets, and building frontages. The district guidelines address land use character including density (dwelling units per acre), intensity (building floor area to lot area ratio) and mix of land uses and on-site parking. The district guidelines were used to shape recommendations for streets and sidewalk design and building frontages. Districts List below are the four character districts identified in the Regulating Plan. These districts are the basis for comparison of the three build-out scenarios. Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 1

2 Urban Center Urban General North Urban General South Suburban Streets The Regulating Plan guidelines also address street design including travel-ways, on-street parking, and streetscape amenities for the following street types: A Streets B Streets C Streets Building Frontages The building frontages types identified in the Regulating Plan are also critical building blocks for the build-out scenarios. Building frontage types include: Retail Mixed Use Public Buildings ALTERNATIVES AND ANALYSIS OBJECTIVE The project team developed and tested three build-out scenarios for the U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Area (Corridor Area) to identify potential development yields in consideration of the community s vision for the corridor and basic market assumptions. The objective of the analysis was to identify a preferred or best fit build-out scenario from which to fine-tune the Regulating Plan. BUILD-OUT SCENARIOS The following build-out scenarios for the Corridor Area were developed and tested: Scenario 1 (Current Policy) analyzed a build-out scenario based on the City s adopted future land use policy (current policy). Scenario 2 (Regulating Plan) analyzed a build-out scenario based on the level of development described in the Regulating Plan (the community s vision). Scenario 3 (Reality Check) used a factor to adjust the Scenario 2 (Regulating Plan) results. In addition to the three build-out scenarios, baseline existing conditions were established to understand degree of change associated with each scenario. The scenario testing results were considered in the development of a preferred scenario The preferred scenario was used to calibrate the draft form-based code and will continued to be used in the development of implementation strategies for the Corridor Area. METHODOLOGY The build-out scenarios and baseline conditions are based on parcel data from the Pasco County Property Appraiser s Office for the 2015 roll year. Testing assumptions were applied to individual parcels from parcel database and then summarized by district. 1. The Baseline Development Conditions (existing development) were established using the Florida Department of Revenue land use codes. The codes were grouped under the following categories: Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 2

3 Commercial Other non-residential/commercial 2. Scenario 1 Current Policy was established based on the Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map designation with the Corridor Area. The future land use categories applicable to the corridor are: Mixed Use: The target land use mix under this category is 50 percent commercial, 25 percent residential, and 25 percent office. The maximum residential density is 14 dwelling units per acre and the maximum non-residential floor area ratio (FAR) is 1.0. Urban: This category is mostly residential with a residential density range of 7.5 to 14 dwelling units per acre. Limited commercial uses are capped at 0.5 FAR. Public/Semi-Public: Uses under this category are predominantly non-residential with a maximum FAR of 0.7. Scenario 1 assumes full redevelopment of the corridor with no finite time horizon and represents the maximum development potential based on the Future Land Use Map. 3. Scenario 2 Regulating Plan is based on the district and building frontage type standards in the Regulating Plan including: Proposed building height, lot coverage, and land use mix Mix of building types envisioned in the Urban Center, Urban General, and Suburban districts Efficiency of land use (adjustment for portions of sites used for drive aisles, parking, open space, stormwater pond, etc.) Scenario 2 assumes full redevelopment of the corridor with no finite time horizon and represents the maximum development potential based on the proposed regulating plan. 4. Scenario 3 Reality Check is the Regulating Plan scenario (Scenario 2) adjusted using a redevelopment factor. The redevelopment factor compares the Property Appraiser s data for building/improvements value and land value to indicate redevelopment propensity. 5. The baseline conditions and the three scenarios were applied to Regulating Plan districts: Urban Center Urban General North Urban General South Suburban 6. The following comparisons were made for the baseline conditions and three scenarios: development square footage and units residential development square footage (includes retail square footage) Retail development square footage (also included in non-residential development square footage) density and floor area ratio (FAR) Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 3

4 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL - U.S. 301/GALL BOULEVARD CORRIDOR Baseline Development Conditions The analysis indicates that the U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard corridor is very underdeveloped. Table 1 Baseline Development Conditions show that there are currently 14 residential units representing 9,284 square feet of development within the Corridor Area and 326,532 square feet of non-residential development. Approximately one-third of the non-residential square footage is retail. Retail activity is largely focused in the Urban Center District, which is focused around 5 th Avenue. The lack of residential development is not surprising given the predominance of commercial zoning (C2) within the Corridor Area. The residential development is largely multi-family housing. TABLE 1 BASELINE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS Parcels Units Building Square Feet District No. Acres Density 2 Urban Center , ,412 39, Urban General - North ,883 20, Urban General - South ,736 49,966 20, Suburban ,271 12, , ,532 92,129 In addition to the sparse development, land values within the Corridor Area are also marginal. A comparison of building/improvement value to land value for parcels within the Corridor Area indicates significant underutilization of property. Typically, a building/improvement value to land value ratio of 2.0 or lower is considered high redevelopment potential in redevelopment analysis. Based on this threshold, the vast majority of parcels within the Corridor Area have high redevelopment potential. In order to recognize the variation in redevelopment potential along the corridor, the parcel analysis was performed by district and the analysis results (building/improvement value to land value ratio) were divided equally into quartiles (see Quartiles 1-3 in Table 2 Redevelopment Potential). To illustrate, 20.90% of the land area in the Urban Center District under the 1 st Quartile had a redevelopment factor of 0.20 or lower. In the 3 rd Quartile, 76.54% of the land area (includes 1 st Quartile and 2 nd Quartile land areas) had a redevelopment factor of 1.52 or lower. District Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 4 TABLE 2 REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Building/Improvement Value Ratio 1 ST QUARTILE 2 ND QUARTILE 3 RD QUARTILE % Land Area % Land Area % Land Area Urban Center % % % Urban General - North % % % Urban General - South % % % Suburban % % % Note: 1. Redevelopment factor is the ratio of building/improved value to land value.

5 2. Percent Land Area is the proportion of land in a district with the corresponding redevelopment factor. Scenario 1 Current Policy The Future Land Use Map designates the Corridor Area as Mixed Use with a targeted mix of uses 50 percent commercial, percent residential, and 25 percent office with a maximum density of 14 dwelling units per acre and a maximum FAR of 1.0. Scenario 1 Current Policy is based on these targets and standards, and anticipates 244 dwelling units and 2.14 million square feet of non-residential development assuming 100 percent development of the corridor. Over one-half the non-residential square footage, approximately 1.38 million square feet is retail. This amount of retail development is the equivalent to a large regional shopping mall such as International Plaza in Tampa s Westshore district. District TABLE 3 SCENARIO 1 CURRENT POLICY Parcels Units Building Square Feet # Acres Density 2 Urban Center n/a 574, , Urban General - North n/a 559, , Urban General - South n/a 578, , Suburban n/a 431, , ,143,920 1,386,579 Although the Mixed Use future land use category allows up to 14 dwelling units per acre, the anticipated residential mix of 25 percent results in an effective gross density of under four dwelling units per acre. The Urban Center District includes some parcels designated as urban residential which improves the gross density for the district as a whole. Conversely, gross FAR is higher for the districts located away from the center. Scenario 2 Regulating Plan The Scenario 2 Regulating Plan adjusts the anticipated mix of uses by district and anticipated development type. This results in a more balanced residential to non-residential mix overall (refer to Table 4 on page 6) Assuming 100 percent development along the corridor, the Regulating Plan anticipates approximately 2.25 million square feet of non-residential development with over one-half, approximately 1.21 million square feet, as retail. This is generally comparable to the trend scenario based on the Future Land Use Map. In contrast, residential development is significantly higher in this scenario. Scenario 3 Reality Check Scenario 3 Reality Check assumes a redevelopment factor that takes into consideration the district location relative to 5 th Avenue (refer to Table 5 on page 6). The higher redevelopment factor assumed for the Urban Center District recognizes the existing main street-type retail on 5 th Avenue and higher land values in the district. Scenario 3 results in 605 residential units and 1.28 million square feet of non-residential development. While this is still a significant amount of non-residential development, it includes only 677,267 square feet of retail square footage with over one-half of the retail located in the Urban Center District. Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 5

6 Density 2 Urban Center , , , Urban General - North , , , Urban General - South , , , Suburban , , , ,301 2,405,703 2,248,578 1,210,947 TABLE 4 SCENARIO 2 REGULATING PLAN Parcels Units Building Square Feet District No. Acres TABLE 5 SCENARIO 3 REALITY CHECK Parcels Units Building Square Feet District No. Acres Density 2 Urban Center , , , Urban General - North , , , Urban General - South , , , Suburban ,699 44,529 23, ,114,624 1,281, ,267 The effective gross density and FAR resulting from Scenario 3 are also generally representative of a more urban development pattern. By managing future redevelopment by district based on its proximity to the center and existing retail, the Scenario 3 Reality Check meets the intent of the Mixed Use future land use designation and creates a balance of residential and non-residential development along the corridor. Table 6 on page 7 shows the building frontage type mix assumed under Scenario 3. Table 7 on page 7 shows the development types assumed under Scenario 3. Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 6

7 Town Homes Garden Apartments Apartment Building Mixed Use Building Commercial Mixed Use Building Retail Building Office Building Civic Building Hotel TABLE 6 BUILDING FRONTAGE TYPES - SCENARIO 3 REALITY CHECK Mix Building Frontage Bldg Lot Density 2 Types Height Coverage Commercial 4 Total Only Town Home 2 65% 100% 0% 0% Garden Apt 2 65% 100% 0% 0% Apartment Bldg 4 75% 95% 5% 100% MU Bldg 4 75% 80% 20% 100% Commercial MU Bldg 4 75% 20% 80% 50% Retail Bldg 2 80% 5% 95% 75% Office Bldg 4 75% 0% 100% 5% Civic Bldg 2 50% 0% 100% 0% Hotel 3 65% 0% 100% 0% Retail, office, and service uses. TABLE 7 DEVELOPMENT TYPES - SCENARIO 3 REALITY CHECK Development Types Districts Mix of Building Frontage Types Urban Center 5% 0% 0% 20% 20% 35% 10% 5% 5% Urban General 10% 10% 10% 30% 30% 5% 0% 5% 0% Suburban 10% 15% 25% 25% 10% 5% 5% 5% 0% RECOMMENDATIONS - PREFERRED BUILD-OUT SCENARIO Scenario 3 Reality Check generally approximates the intent of the Mixed Use future land use designation within the Corridor Area but shifts the balance of uses and redevelopment priorities based on districts and their proximity to 5 th Avenue. The focus on residential development results in more units and higher densities and supports the overall goal of a vibrant and walkable Gall Boulevard. The recommended build-out scenario (preferred) would build on this opportunity while addressing several issues inherent in the Scenario 3 Reality Check. Putting Scenario 3 in the context of the population projections for the City and Pasco County present a critical issue. Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 7

8 Year TABLE 8 POPULATION PROJECTIONS, PASCO COUNTY (COUNTYWIDE) AND CITY OF ZEPHYRHILLS Pasco County City of Zephyrhills Total Average Annual Change Total Average Annual Change Population 1 % Population 2 % # 2014 (estimate) 479,340-14, , % 15, % , % 16, % , % 17, % , % 18, % , % 19, % , % 20, % 201 From , the city s annual growth rate was 2.72%. Sources: 1. Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 2014 and the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 168, April Assumes an annual growth rate of 2.0% through 2020; 1.25% from 2021 through 2030; and 1.25% from 2021 through Vrana Consulting, Inc., March The population projections for the City and county anticipate a modest growth rate over the next five to 10- years. The allocation of new units with the Corridor Area alone would represent a major share of projected growth, in terms of residential and non-residential development. That said, market conditions for multifamily development are improving a trend that bodes well for urban redevelopment districts. Nationally, multifamily transactions have reached pre-recession levels and the pace is not projected to slow anytime soon. Fueled by strong demographic trends that are only beginning to manifest, apartment demand has been and is expected to be robust. In larger urban markets, considerable focus is on: 1) echo boomers, who are partial to the amenities of an urban lifestyle, and 2) their parents, who are realigning their housing needs toward walkable surroundings and transit. 1 Shifts in the retail market could also present advantages for the envisioned corridor redevelopment. The economic recession, e-commerce wave, and other factors have redefined the retail market. The day of the suburban mall, anchored by a mid-market department store, has probably passed, and there will be no return. An improving housing market and the annual expansion in retail sales should lead to an improved retail environment. 1 To set up the Corridor Area for success, the level of development levels envisioned in the Regulating Plan must be critically evaluated and adjusted as needed to align with the area s foreseeable development potential. In this regard, the following recommendations are offered: Recommendation 1: Refine District Boundaries The current Regulating Plan district boundaries include a relatively large Urban General District located north and south of the Urban Center District. By splitting the Urban General District south of the Urban Center District at South Avenue or A Avenue and creating another Suburban District near Shepherd Park, the nonresidential square footage would be reduced given the residential focus of the Suburban District. The Suburban 1 Urban Land Institute, January 2015 ( 2015/). Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 8

9 District to the north of the corridor would also be expanded to include an additional block between 14 th Avenue and 13 th Avenue. Suburban residential types are generally larger in square footage and the adjustment would minimally impact residential units and density. Recommendation 2: Refine Building Types and Standards Building types and standards are the basic building blocks for the Regulating Plan. By adjusting the building types and the height, lot coverage, and suggested mix of uses for the building types, the overall foreseeable development potential for the districts can be curtailed. In addition to the building types and standards, adjusting the mix of building types at the district level can influence the overall balance of residential and nonresidential development. Recommendation 3: Manage Redevelopment Managing redevelopment priorities is a key factor in ensuring continuity and compatibility with existing development along the corridor. The existing main street type development along 5 th Avenue is a key pivot for proposed development along Gall Boulevard. By assigning a higher priority to redevelopment in the Urban Center District, development along the corridor can be phased over a longer term to better align with regional and local growth projections. Recommendation 4: Create Opportunities for Public Buildings and Open Space Recognizing that the Corridor Area may lack the capacity to absorb all of the residential and non-residential development envisioned by the Regulating Plan in the foreseeable future creates an opportunity for consideration of catalytic public uses, both in the form of open space and buildings. Developing parks and plazas within the Corridor Area in tandem with a destination public building such as a performing arts center or a public market has the potential to spark development interest and manage residential and non-residential square footage. This provides the city with an opportunity to demonstrate investment in the corridor and manages dependence of private development to grow the corridor. Task 2 Report - U.S. 301/Gall Boulevard Corridor Form-Based Code March 11, 2015 Page 9