Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions

Transcription

1 Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions The Center for Business and Economic Research Las Vegas Housing Market Searching for Bottom Volume 57, 4th The national housing market remained beset with problems in. Foreclosures were up previous years with 2.23 percent of housing units filed for foreclosure in. 1 That figure compares with 2.19 percent for and 1.81 percent in. Meanwhile, sales of new residential-housing sing units in were down 14.3 percent from. 2 The Las Vegas area housing market showed some slight signs of improvement in even as the struggles with historically high unemployment rates. The Las Vegas metropolitan area saw a slight decrease in foreclosures during, but still retained a substantial lead in foreclosures over other U.S. metropolitan areas. In the Las Vegas metropolitan area, percent residences were posted for foreclosure during (down from in ). The Las Vegas foreclosure rate was nearly five times the national average in. Other metropolitan areas in the top ten included Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL; Modesto, CA; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA; Stockton, CA: Merced, CA; Orlando-Kissimmee, FL; and Vallejo-Fairfield, CA with foreclosure rates that ranged from 8.40 to 6.25 percent. Reno-Sparks was 11th with a foreclosure rate of 6.08 percent, and nearby Los Angeles was 39th with a foreclosure rate of 3.34 percent. In fourth quarter, Las Vegas remained the top metropolitan area in the nation with negative equity mortgages. In the Las Vegas area, 69.1 percent of the area s mortgage properties were underwater in fourth quarter, down slightly from the second quarter figure of 71.1 percent. 3 Another 4.4 percent are near negative equity. Other statistics add to a perception of uncertainty in the Las Vegas Real Estate market fourth quarter. CBER estimates an excess housing supply of 10,579 in the Las Vegas metropolitan area for fourth quarter a decrease of 16 percent from the third quarter estimate (Table 1). The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Las Vegas metropolitan area joined other areas of the country by dropping in fourth quarter. Apartment vacancies ticked up from 9.6 in third quarter to 10.6 percent in fourth quarter. Residential-building permits increased slightly. Table 1 Estimated Excess Supply of Housing Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area by Housing Type: Q4 Type of Housing Unit 1 Vacant Units Estimated Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area Assumed Percent Normal Vacancy Rate Estimated Normal Vacant Inventory Estimated Excess Supply 2 Single family detached 11, , ,111 4,616 Condominium 2,000 89, ,147 (1,147) Townhouse 1,022 39, Apartment 17, , ,418 6,883 Total 32, , ,471 10,579 1 Excludes mobile homes and multiplex units 2 Estimated excess supply = vacant units less estimated normal vacancy inventory I RealtyTrac ( 2 U.S. Census ( 3 CoreLogic ( Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th

2 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d Differing Perspectives on the Las Vegas Housing Market The U.S. Census and data from the Las Vegas Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at the University of Nevada offer very different perspectives on the Las Vegas housing market. According to the U.S. Census, the Las Vegas metropolitan area had 840,343 housing units, 715,365 were occupied and 124,978 were vacant when the census was conducted in April. According to the Las Vegas MLS and CBER, the Las Vegas metropolitan area had 767,580 housing units in, 735,530 were occupied and 32,050 were vacant in the fourth quarter. To add to the potential confusion, Clark County used its tax rolls to estimate the number of housing units in the Las Vegas metropolitan area at 814,868 in, of which the county said 749,269 were occupied and 65,599 were vacant. The differences between these vacancy estimates imply very different outlooks for the potential recovery of the Las Vegas housing market. With a 2.8 percent vacancy rate necessary for a well-functioning real estate market, the Census estimate of vacancies implies an excess capacity of 14.7 percent in the Las Vegas housing market. At the other extreme, the MLS/CBER estimate of vacancies implies an excess capacity of only 1.6 percent in the Las Vegas housing market. In the middle, the Clark County estimates are consistent with a 6.0 percent overhang in the Las Vegas real estate market. With an annual household formation rate of 0.8 percent, as the Western Blue Chip forecasts population p growth for Nevada over the next few years, the MLS/CBER estimates suggest that the excess capacity in the Las Vegas metropolitan area housing market could be absorbed in two years. In contrast, the Census estimates would require an annual household formation rate of 4.9 percent (the same annual rate at which the Clark County population grew from 2000 to 2007) for excess capacity to be absorbed over the next three years. Differences in the Number of Housing Units So which of these perspectives on the Las Vegas housing market is correct? The differing number in the housing units estimated by the Census, Clark County and the Las Vegas MLS are easily explained. The Census counts group housing facilities (such as federal housing, university dormitories, prisons, reform schools and halfway houses); furnished apartments that offer daily, weekly and monthly rentals and condotels as part of the housing stock. Clark County does not. These facilities appear to account for the difference between the Census and county estimates. The Las Vegas MLS and CBER data starts with the county figures and then drops duplexes, triplexes, quadruplexes and mobile homes. From the perspective of the real estate industry, one can argue that the 25,000+ housing units counted by the Census, but excluded by the county, aren t really part of the housing market for ordinary Las Vegas residents. Federal housing, dormitories, prisons and reform schools are not part of an ordinary real estate market. Furnished apartments that offer daily, weekly and monthly rentals mostly compete with motels and hotels rather than other apartments. Condotel units are typically owned by nonresidents who allow their unoccupied units to be rented out as hotel space. One might disagree with the exclusion of duplexes, triplexes, quadruplexes and mobile homes from a count of housing units, but the Las Vegas MLS and CBER data also doesn t count the occupancy of such Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 2

3 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d units. When these units are excluded from the Clark County data, the Clark County estimates are 707,053 occupied housing units, 60,527 vacant units and a market overhang of 5.8 percent. Differences in Occupancy The remaining differences are in the number of occupied units estimated by the Census, Clark County and MLS/CBER, with the Census offering the lowest figure. Some of these differences will be better explained when more detailed Census data are available. In the meantime, we must look at the differing methods for evaluating occupancy to judge which is likely to produce the most accurate estimates. The Census workers counted as vacant any dwelling where they could not find evidence of residents in three visits. Such an approach could lead to an undercounting of retirees and others who took extended leaves from home. Clark County uses meter hookups and electricity consumption to provide an annual estimate of occupancy at midyear. Such an approach could lead to an overcounting of occupancy if electric power consumption was maintained in unoccupied units. Las Vegas MLS uses vacancy reports of single family, condominiums and townhouses for sale or rent made by realtors. The CBER collects vacancy reports from managers of apartment complexes. Such an approach provides data from people regularly in the field, but the assessments of single family homes, condominiums and townhouses could lead to an upwardly biased estimate of occupancy if banks were holding vacant units off the market. The quarterly reports do show, however, a 1.5 percent increase in occupancy from third quarter to fourth quarter. Bringing It All Back Home Because the Las Vegas MLS and CBER data offer quarterly updates from people in the field on a regular basis, it is tempting to conclude that the overhang of housing in the Las Vegas housing market may have fallen as low as 1.6 percent in fourth quarter. The reputation of the U.S. Census for providing reliable enumerations leads to the dramatically different conclusion that there could be a 14.7 percent overhang in the Las Vegas area housing market. The Clark County data fall in the middle with a percent overhang. With banks reported as sitting on vacant units, probably the Clark County data should be judged as a more reliable assessment of occupancy than the Las Vegas MLS and CBER data, but the Las Vegas MLS and CBER data provide valuable information about the direction of the market. When more detailed Census data are provided in midsummer 2011, we will get an opportunity to more closely examine the reasons for the differences between the Census and county estimates and be better able to judge which housing market assessment is more accurate. Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD Director Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 3

4 Housing-Market Overview Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, th Total: 1,225 1st Total: 1,920 2nd Total: 1,667 3rd Total: 1,094 4th Total: 1,128 Commercial Units Multifamily Units Single-Family Units 964 1,557 1,306 1, Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority th Total: 1,168 1st Total: 1,871 2nd Total: 1,598 3rd Total: 1,035 4th Total: 1,073 Uninc. Clark County City of Las Vegas City of North Las Vegas Henderson Boulder City Mesquite Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 4

5 Local Growth 70,000 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 2 60,000 50,000 40, ,000 20,000 10, th st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarterly 14,715 13,889 13,458 14,654 13,047 11,919 11,842 14,604 12,783 Year-to-Date 64,674 13,889 27,347 42,001 55,048 11,919 23,761 38,365 51,148 Unemployment 6 Las Vegas Q4 12.9% Q1 13.8% Q2 14.3% Q3 14.8% Q4 14.4% U.S. Q4 10.0% Q1 9.7% Q2 9.6% Q3 9.6% Q4 9.6% Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 2 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4th st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Percent from Outside the 50 States and DC 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Percent from California 32.0% 32.8% 31.8% 31.5% 31.2% 31.7% 32.1% 31.6% 30.0% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 12.8% 10.9% 11.5% 11.2% 14.5% 13.9% 14.5% 14.4% 15.5% Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 5

6 Substitute Market: Apartments ZIP CODE Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 2 UNIT RATES Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed AVERAGE RATES Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Rent Vacancy * * * 782 * * * * * * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 747 * * * 877 * % * * * 760 * * * 942 * % * * * 672 * 796 * 840 * % * * * 588 * 658 * 741 * % * * * 528 * 539 * 651 * % * * * * * * * 799 * % * * * 713 * * * 848 * % * * * 825 * 937 * 1059 * % * * * 771 * * * 912 * % * * * 686 * * * 847 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 706 * * * 880 * % * 622 * 674 * % * 525 * 560 * 625 * 712 * % * 606 * 631 * 692 * 788 * % * 485 * 587 * 649 * % * * * 525 * 592 * 702 * % * 517 * 552 * 621 * 720 * % * 515 * 631 * 633 * 776 * % * 486 * 579 * 613 * 735 * * % * * * 545 * 582 * 689 * % * * * 821 * * * 1033 * * % * * * 502 * 543 * 626 * % * * * 750 * * * 860 * % * * * 717 * * * 872 * % * 618 * 768 * % * * * 652 * * * 785 * % * 469 * 572 * 613 * 686 * % * * * 621 * 764 * 756 * % * * * 729 * * * 882 * % * * * 657 * * * 777 * % * * * 693 * * * 851 * % * * * 697 * * * 730 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 868 * * * 1058 * * % * * * 857 * * * 1019 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 570 * * * 682 * % 9.6% * * * 934 * * * 1111 * % * * * * * * * 1034 * % * * * 610 * 600 * 774 * % * * * 762 * * * 922 * % * * * 831 * * * 948 * % * * * 777 * * * 1242 * % * * * 610 * * * 744 * % * * * 842 * * * 1078 * % * 617 * 674 * % * * * 756 * * * 889 * % METRO LV * 685 * 816 * % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 6

7 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area Rent Q4 Rent Q3 Rent Q Vacancy Q4 Vacancy Q4 Data Suppressed Data Suppressed Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 7

8 Single-Family Housing-Market Details 6,000 Distribution of House Size in Square Feet 3 5,000 4,923 4,862 4,685 4,890 5,007 4,000 3,000 2,270 2,305 2,297 2,294 2,303 2,000 1,788 1,787 1,807 1,789 1,806 1,470 1,474 1,489 1,470 1,478 1, th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. Distribution of Sales Price 3 $800,000 $700,000 $710,000 $600,000 $620,700 $635,100 $650,000 $658,390 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $197,666 $200,000 $203,500 $199,000 $189,000 $100,000 $0 $141,000 $140,000 $150,000 $140,000 $135,000 $103,000 $102,000 $112,000 $104,800 $99,900 $30,000 $27,000 $27,490 $7,513 $18,119 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 8

9 Single-Family Housing-Market Details $250 Distribution of Price per Square Foot 3 $200 $184 $194 $187 $187 $180 $150 $100 $50 $95 $94 $79 $78 $63 $63 $99 $94 $91 $82 $78 $74 $67 $64 $60 $0 $24 $20 $20 $15 $4 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $450,000 Distribution of Total Mortgage Value 3 $400,000 $407, $416,971 $404,561 $409,846 $404,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $152,192 $147,184 $163,750 $150,242 $144,705 $100,000 $97,621 $88,654 $108,538 $93,300 $85,843 $50,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 9

10 Housing-Market Comparisons $600,000 Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties 4 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Clark County, NV $145,000 $142,900 $148,000 $140,000 $137,900 Maricopa County, AZ $152,443 $147,000 $150,000 $145,960 $140,000 Salt Lake County, UT $215,811 $213,208 $218,112 $220,000 $211,644 Los Angeles County, CA $340,000 $329,000 $345,000 $347,500 $335,000 Orange County, CA $505,000 $505,000 $520,000 $520,000 $495, % Quarterly Increase in Median Home Price 4 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Clark County, NV 1.4% -1.4% 3.6% -5.4% -1.5% Maricopa County, AZ 3.0% -3.6% 2.0% -2.7% -4.1% Salt Lake County, UT -1.1% -1.2% 2.3% 0.9% -3.8% Los Angeles County, CA 3.0% -3.2% 4.9% 0.7% -3.6% Orange County, CA 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% -4.8% Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 10

11 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number Available and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units 5 23,500 $150,000 22,500 $146,000 21,500 20,500 $142,000 19,500 $138,000 18,500 17,500 April May June July August September October November December Available units (left axis) 20,875 21,143 21,361 21,750 22,624 22,719 22,570 22,624 21,656 Median list price (right axis) $149,900 $149,000 $147,000 $145,000 $144,900 $140,000 $139,900 $139,000 $135,000 $134,000 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 5 100% 90% 15.8% 16.2% 15.8% 14.0% 15.2% 15.2% 15.6% 18.5% 18.0% 80% 70% 65% 6.5% 69% 6.9% 61% 6.1% 7.2% 64% 6.4% 70% 7.0% 9.7% 9.7% 10.0% 9.4% 10.3% 11.3% 9.0% 12.0% 9.0% 9.4% 12.2% 13.2% 60% 50% 16.4% 16.2% 15.9% 17.5% 18.4% 19.7% 20.7% 19.8% 21.1% 40% 30% 20% 51.6% 51.0% 52.2% 51.9% 49.7% 46.8% 42.7% 40.5% 38.2% 10% 0% April May June July August September October November December 0-30 days days days days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 11

12 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number of Single-Family Home Sales, 4 th Number of Sales Q Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 12

13 National Housing Market Conditions 7 Latest quarter Previous quarter % change Same quarter from previous previous year quarter % change from last year HOUSING PRODUCTION Permits Starts Under construction Completions Manufactured (mobile) home shipments HOUSING MARKETING New homes sold New homes for sale Month's supply of new homes Existing homes sold Existing homes for sale Month's supply of existing homes Median new home price Average new home price Constant house quality new home price Median existing home price Average existing home price Composite housing affordability index Fixed-rate housing affordability index Apartments completed Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months Median asking rent Manufactured (mobile) home placements Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) Builders housing market index Builders current sales activity Builders future sales expectations Builders prospective buyer traffic HOUSING FINANCE Conventional fixed-rate 30 year Conventional ARMs Conventional fixed-rate 15 year FHA applications received FHA total endorsements FHA purchase endorsements VA certificates PMI certificates HOUSING INVESTMENT GDP (in billions of dollars) Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) RFI percent of GDP HOUSING INVENTORY All housing units Occupied units Owner occupied Rental vacancy rate Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 13

14 Housing-Market Overview Figure 1 Case-Shiller Housing Price Index: January 1987 to December ousing Price Index H Las Vegas, NV Base month, January 2000 = Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices < U.S. (10 city composite) Sources: 1 Local building permitting agencies. 2 CBER. 3 CBER calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions RealQuest data based on new and existing recorded home sales. 4 First American CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions data based on recorded home sales. These statistics may differ from CBER calculations based on the same data (reported on page 10) because First American CoreLogic uses raw estimates. 5 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders. 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and Rehabilitation. 7 U.S. Housing Market Conditions 2nd. Note: As of the 1st 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright Conditions Las Vegas Metropolitan Housing-Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research. Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, Box , 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, Phone: (702) Fax: (702) cber@unlv.nevada.edu. Web page: Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 57, 4th Page 14