HANOI. Economics Quick Stats. Hot Topics. Hanoi s CPI (%)
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1 CBRE VIETNAM HANOI Economics Quick Stats Change from last VIETNAM 211 Current Yr. Qtr. Real GDP Growth 5.89% Implemented FDI Exports Imports $11 bil $96.3 bil $15.8 bil CPI 18.58% Tourism (arrivals) 6mil Base Rate 9% Exchange Rate (e-o-p) 2,828 *The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time period and do not represent a positive or negative value. Hot Topics ECONOMY: Curbing inflation and stabilizing macro-economy toward sustainable development remain key economic tasks in 212. RESIDENTIAL: Buyers financing was much worsened towards the year end. SERVICED APARTMENTS: Stronger competition with buy-to-let apartments & new entrants will lead to another drop in occupancy among existing projects in the next quarter. VIETNAM OFFICE: The oversupply situation of the market will likely increase vacancy rate even further in the coming time. RETAIL: Hanoi has seen 19,5 sm Hanoi s GDP (%) (NLA) new shopping opportunities in non-cbd locations, as rents in the city centre continue to be firm. HOTEL: The year 212 might be a challenging time for the hotel industry. GDP growth rate of 211 was 5.89% y- o-y, a reasonable growth rate considering the world s cu urrent difficult economic condition and the government s focus on curbing inflation and stabilizing the economy. CPI of the whole year reached 18.58%. Curbing inflation and stabilizing macro- economy toward sustainable development remain key economic tasks in 212. Export turnover reached US$96.3 billion, increasing 33.3% y-o-y, while import turnover was US$ 15.8 billion. Trade deficit was at US$9.5 billion, equal to 9.9% of export turnover. FDI (including new registered capital and increased capital from existing projects) reached US$14.7 billion, equal to 74% of FDI in 21. However, implemented FDI was at US$11 billion, the same levell in 21. The highlighthli h of FDI in 211 was the manufacturingaccounted for construction sector which 76.4% (compared to 54. 1% in 21). Percentage of FDI in the real estate sector declined drastically, from 34.3% last year to 5.8% this year. Total number of international arrivals to Vietnam reached 6 million, increasing 19.1% compared to % 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % HANOI Hanoi s GDP annual growth rate reached 1.1%. Manufacturing- Construction sector increased by 1.2%, service sector increased by 1.8% and Agro, Forestry, and Fishery sector increased by 4.4%. In 211, export turnover reached US$1 trillion, increasing 27.1%; import turnover reached US$25 billion, increasing 16.6% y-o-y. CPI of Hanoi showed sign of slowdown in the last months of 211, where CPI was 1.32%, 1.6%,.2%,.13%,.29%, and.61% for the months from July to December. CPI in December increased 17.7% y-o-y and CPI of the whole year reached 17.89%. Total registered FDI in 211 reached US$1.5 billion. Capital for 283 new registered projects was US$957 million, which doubled 21 s figure. The increased capital was US$543 million for 61 existing projects. Total number of international arrivals to Hanoi rose slightly by 2.6%, reaching 1.3 million in 211. Hotel and travel revenue rose by 6.4% y-o-y. Total outstanding loan reached VND569.9 trillion in 211, increasing 11.7% y-o-y. Hanoi s CPI (%) 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: Hanoi Statistics Office 212, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.
2 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE MARKET CONDOMINIUM LUXURY Total launch supply (units) 2,2222 New launch (units) Primary market - Average asking price (US$ psm) N/A Secondary market - Average asking price (US$ psm) $3,28 Q-o-q change (%) -1.8% Y-o-y change (%) -1.7% HIGH-END MID-END LOW-END TOTAL 22,33 64,13 16,24 14,92 1,99 1, ,26 $1,43 $1,12 $76 $1,13 $1,86 $1,34 $98 $1,87-3.1% -3.6% -3.2% -2.9% -3.8% -3.8% -2.4% -2.9% New Launch Supply (units) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Whole year Condominium Asking Price (US$ psm) - Secondary Market $3,5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end Q4/211 welcomed a new launch supply of 4,5 condominium units, out of the year s total new supply of 25, units. The fourth quarter typically accounts for the largest proportion of annual supply. In 211, however, developers adjusted down launches towards the year end in response to the market slowdown. Secondary asking prices decreased in all market segments by up to 3.5% q-o-q. Completed units retained prices better than under construction units, with completed units recording a price adjustment of -1% y-o-y against -7% of under construction units. Buyers financing was worsened towards the year end. For instance, the ratio of overdue mortgages in a surveyed bank stood at 1% in Q4/211, compared to 5% in Q1, against a benchmark safe ratio of 3%. The major source of mortgage payment is earnings from borrowers independent businesses rather than salary, which is highly volatile. The curren nt economic downturn undoubtedly plays a part in the current financing crisis. 212 anticipates 22, condominium units from 6 projects. Without active trading by speculators, trading volume is expected to lower. 212 is forecast to be a challenging year for the economy, continuing its negative impacts on the condominium market. The landed house sector in Hanoi continued to experience a downward trend in secondary asking prices across all projects. 4% of land plots and house units in 14 districts saw lower secondary asking prices q-o-q, while the other 6% saw prices remain the same. The decrease ranged from a few to ten million VND per sm. Compared to early 211, appro ximately 7% of the projects recorded lower secondary asking prices, with level of decreases popular in the range of 1%-2%. Construction progress was slow in many projects, with exceptions including Vincom Village and Hillstate (by Hyundai). Looking ahead, market activity will largely depend on the pick up of the economy. Projects dominated by speculators will be under pressure for further price correction. For other projects, more transactions are expected around March-April 212 as prices level off, although 212 will still be a difficult year in general for the residential sector. 212, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.
3 OFFICE MARKET GRADE A GRADE B GRADE C TOTAL Number of buildings NLA (sm) 254,332 48, ,97 986,363 Vacancy rate (%) 34.5% 24.43% - - Q-o-q change ppp 5.85 pp - - Y-o-y change pp p 9.4 pp - - Average asking rent (US$ psm per month) $36.37 $ Q-o-q change (%) -8.6% -2.81% - - Y-o-y change (%) -8.84% -8.52% - - Four projects came on-line in the forth quarter of Grade A Vacancy (%) 211, most notably is the Grade A Keangnam Grade B Landmark 72 (89, sm NLA). The other three grade B projects (VA, Detech and Mipec) brought 4% on-line 143, sm, of which 8% came from the Western submarket. Although the positive net 3% absorption reached nearly 25, sm, the massive new supply pushed the average marketwide 2% vacancy to a record 28%. The vacancy of both Grade A and B offices were 34.5% and 24.4%, 1% respectively. Average asking rent has no major changes thanks to good net absorption rate. A price % reduction happened only in Grade B projects in the West market as landlords attempted to fill up large vacant space. Asking Rents (US$ psm per month) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Grade A Grade B Tenants are hesistant to have their offices relocated due to significant costs of equipment and fitting out, and change in working environment. To attract tenants, developers implemented various types of promotion, including free billboards displaying outside buildings, and extended free-rent period. Tenants can be offered 3-6 month free rent for projects in the CBD, and 8-12 month free rent for projects in the West market. It is clearly a rent reduction but headline rents are kept unchanged to maintain the buildings reputation. New projects will come online in 212. Despite high i nterest rate, certain projects still have good construction progress. Projects in the West market keep attracting tenants having demand for large space. In the West, developers are ready to negotiate and support tenants to acquire large space with low price. Besides the short-term lease, in many projects being fitted out, developers offer long-te erm leasing with flexible terms to fill up vacant space. The oversupply situation of the market will likely increase vacancy further in the coming time. 212, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.
4 RETAIL MARKET DEPARTMENT STORE Total supply Q4 211 (NLA, sm) 46, New supply (NLA, sm) 3, Vacancy rate (%).% Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) $45.5 CBD - Q-o-q change (%) - Y-o-y change (%) - Non-CBD $45.5 Q-o-q change (%) -15.7% Y-o-y change (%) -15.7% -26.1% %.% -19.3% Total Supply (NLA sm) Hanoi has seen one of the biggest changes in retail Shopping Centre Department Store Retail Lobby in the fourth quarter of 211. With the opening of Savico Mega Mall, Vincom Center Long Bien and 2,, Parkson Keangnam, an additional supply of 19,5 sm (NLA) has entered the market, out of 1,5, 1,, 5, which h 3, sm account for the Department Store Parkson Keangnam. The opening of Savico Mega Mall has set a new mark in modern retailing, as this shopping centre is due to the number of anchor tenants (4), its location (suburban) alongside a major street (Nguyen Van Linh) and its retail size (43,5 sm NLA) Vietnams first regional shopping mall. *Future Supply GFA sm Source: CBRE Vietnam f +214f Existing Supply by District (NLA sm) Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Hoan Kiem Tu Liem Cau Giay Long Bien Others 4% 15% 32% 19% 13% 11% 6% SHOPPING CENTRE RETAIL LOBBY TOTAL 189,981 1,31 246,291 79,5 19,5 13.4% 5.8% 1.6% $34.3 $45.9 $37.1 $57.5 $77.2 $ % 17.6% 7.5% -.4% 5.5%.3% $27.9 $21. $ % 1.5% -12.2% Averagee asking rental rates in CBD area have remained high (US$59.7). Having had difficulties with vacancies, Hang Da is currently improving its occupancy rate. In general the current movements of tenants have been diversified, as e.g. Pico Mall has compensated some shop units with the opening of its food court. Furthermore the Garden Mall has improved its situation as attractive rental packages have lead brands such as Mango and Charles & Keith to fill up space. Rental rates in non-cbd locations have remained the same, respectively declined, asmorespacewithalowerrentalratehas entered the market. Having currently US$32.2 for averagee asking rents, it is likely that pressures will continue. In 2122 approximately 181, sm (GFA) new retail space will enter the market. Already existing challenges will rise further, as the number of tenants won t increase significantly. Furthermore tenants will rather concentrate on consolidation than expanding their business. In order to avoid centre failure, developers will have to focus more upon incentive packages and entertainment facilities, which increase the visitors duration to stay. 212, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.
5 SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET INTERNATIONAL SELF- OPERATOR MANAGED TOTAL Total Supply (units) New Supply (units) 886 1,481 2,367 Vacancy Rate (%) market-wide Vacancy Rate (%) (excl. 4 recently completed projects) Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) Q-o-q change (%) Y-o-y change (%) 23.35% 18.5% 19.94% 13.55% 1.27% 11.42% $39.57 $28.91 $ % 1.61% 1.1% -4.26% 1.73% 4.29% *4 recently completed projects include Grand Plaza, Hoa Binh Green Apartments, Crowne Plaza and Me Linh Plaza Tower Total Supply (sm) 3,5 3, 2,5 2 2, 1,5 1, 5 International operator Self-managed f 213f Asking Rents (US$ psm per month) $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ International operator Self-managed There was no new supply in the last quarter of 211 as Keangnam Landmark 72 delayed its original schedule to open in November. Average asking rents increased slightly by approximately 1% both on sm basis and on unit basis, compared to the third quarter of 211. That said, landlords seemed to be more willing to compromise on actual rents, foreseeing challenges of the current and upcoming competition. Vacancy was at 11.42% in the fourth quarter, up from 8.32% in the previous quarter, not counting the four recent entrants of Grand Plaza, Hoa Binh Green Apartments, Crowne Plaza, and Melinh Plaza Tower. The increase in vacancy was mostly due to competition ii from buy-to-let projects and pre-leasing activity from the upcoming project of Keangnam Landmark 72. Inquiries dropped towards year end and the holiday season, with increasing demand from individuals with lower budget of less than US$2,. Lookin ng forward, Keangnam Landmark 72 serviced apartments opening in early 212 will heavily target Korean clients. It is anticipated that they would utilize an aggressive pricing scheme in order to fill up its large stock, while directly competing with its buy-to-let units in the two residential towers. Stronger competition with buy-to-let apartments and new entrants t will lead to another drop in occupancy among existing projects in the next quarter. Projects in the western area, especially by the Pham Hung corridor will attract customers based at industrial parks as the Ring Road 3 is completed. 212, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.
6 HOTEL MARKET 5-STAR Total supply Q3 211 (rooms) 3,78 New supply (rooms) 37 Average Occupancy Rate (%) 59.38% Average Room Rate (US$/night) $114.3 % change (y-o-y) y) 6.74% % change (q-o-q) -9.44% Revenue per Available Room (US$/night) $67.88 % change (y-o-y) 24.5% % change (q-o-q) % Average Daily Rates (US$ per room per night) 5-star 4-star 3-star $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Occupancy Rate (%) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % star 4-star 3-star STAR 3-STAR TOTAL 1,75 1,915 7, % 6.96% 58.62% $64.61 $37.58 $ % 6.45% 6.75% -4.38% -6.58% -3.19% $33.87 $22.91 $ % 11.16% 16.31% % -1.72% % Hanoi received 1.3 million international visitor arrivals in 211, up 2.6% y-o-y. Domestic arrivals reached 7.4 million, down 2.3% y-o-y. Overall, arrivals to Hanoi in 211 was decreasing, especially international arrivals for business purpose and domestic visitors. It could be resulted from the economic downturn both globally ll and domestically. As at Q4/211, accumulated stock of the entire market is 7,445 rooms, representing a 12.5% increase y-o-y and 1% decrease q-o-q. Additional supply during the last quarter was from the last 37 rooms from the 5-star Hotel de l'opera Hanoi. The quarter also witnessed the temporary close for renovation of the 3-star Tay Ho hotel (12 rooms). Unlike the previous quarter, the high season has brought average occupancies in all segments up by 6-9 pp q-o-q but still lower by 3-12 pp y-o-y, most severely in the 4-star segment. In term of ADR, 5-star was the only segment enjoying 7% increase q-o-q while that in the 3- and 4-star segments went down slightly 1%-3%. On a y-o-y basis, ADR experienced a 4%-9% decrease market-wide. Regarding future supply, no new projects were announced during the quarter. Novotel Hanoi on the Park project was approved to be moved to Pham Hung. We expect to see roughly 1, 5-star rooms to come onstream in 212. However, some projects might defer their openings, depending on the market conditionn by that time. The year 212 might be a challenging time for the hotel industry. We anticipate a slight increase of international visitor arrivals to Hanoi versus a small reduction in domestic arrivals. By grade, we expect that 3-star performance will likely be more stable than the 4- and 5-starones. 212, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.
7 MarketView HANOI For more information regarding this MarketView or to find out more about any aspect of our services, please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. RESEARCH & CONSULTING Marc Townsend, Managing Director m e. marc.townsend@cbre.com Nguyen Thanh Tuyen, Associate Director m e. tuyen.nguyen@cbre.com Hanoi Nguyen Mi nh Tuan, Associate Director m e. minhtuan.nguyen@cbre.com Ngoc Le, Publications Manager m e. 212 CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. Central Business District (CBD) The Central Business District in Hanoi is Hoan Kiem District and a portion of Hai Ba Trung District, the commercial and tourism centre. The developing business district in the West is located on the border of Cau Giay and Tu Liem Districts. Major developments are clustered along Pham Hung. Interest Rate The base rate set by the SBV is used as a reference by other banks and financial institutions. The discount rate is the interest rate which the SBV charges member banks for short-term term loans via discounting commercial paper or other debt instruments. The refinancing rate is the interest rate that the SBV charges on loans to member banks. Net Lettable Area (NLA) Net Lettable Area of whole floors include toilets and lift lobbies, but exclude common areas such as lift shafts, stairs and plant rooms. Net Lettable Area for sub-divided units is the Saleable Area of that unit plus a proportionate share of the communal toilets, lift lobbies and passageways among subdivided units on that floor. Net Absorption Net Absorption figures represent the net increase in occupied floor space in the period. The figures are arrived at using the following method: Net Absorption = new completions + vacancy figures at the beginning of period - demolition - vacancy figures at period-end Rent Rent is quoted as the average asking rent, without accounting for any incentives. Rents are stated in US$ per square metre (psm) as well as in those terms gross or net, inclusive (including management fees and/or property taxes) or exclusive (excluding management fees and property taxes) that are customarily employed in the respective sector. Rents or average room rates are quoted on the following basis: Office: Asking rents, NLA, exclusive of VAT and inclusive of service charges Retail: Asking rents, NLA, exclusive of VAT and inclusive of service charges Serviced Apartments: Asking rents, NLA, inclusive of VAT and service charges Residential Supply Existing supply : is the total number of units that have been handed over for occupation. New completion : the total number of units that were handed over for occupation in the review quarter these are added to existing supply. New launch : the number of units that were released to the market by developers (official start of sales for a project) in the review quarter. All units in each development are included in the calculations, however, the developer may divide sales into numerous phases and thus not all units may come online at launch date.
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