LARGO & TARPON SPRINGS SUMMARIES

Transcription

1 LARGO & TARPON SPRINGS SUMMARIES April 25, 2018 Prepared by: HDR With assistance from: SB Friedman Development Advisors 1

2 Purpose of the Studies Conduct market/economic and land use analyses for the US 19 corridor in Largo and Tarpon Springs Analyze economic and demographic conditions. Evaluate patterns of land use and development. Define market potentials for major land uses. Build on similar efforts completed for Palm Harbor and Clearwater. Provide a foundation for future land use and transportation planning, economic development, and regulatory efforts. Source: Google Earth 2

3 LARGO 01 Existing Conditions 02 Housing Analysis 03 Retail Analysis 04 Office Analysis 05 Hotel Analysis 06 Conclusions 3

4 01 Existing Conditions CONTEXT/CORRIDOR LOCATION LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT ACCESS AND MOBILITY POPULATION MEDIAN INCOME EMPLOYMENT 4

5 01 Existing Conditions: Context/Corridor Location GULF TO BAY BLVD PASCO COUNTY Palm Harbor HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY Clearwater BELLEAIR RD Largo STUDY AREA Tampa PINELLAS COUNTY STARKEY RD BELCHER RD E BAY DR WHITNEY RD St. Petersburg US 19 ULMERTON RD STUDY AREA BRYAN DAIRY RD St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport 3-mile commercial corridor from Belleair Road south to Ulmerton Road Study Area spans 0.75 miles outward from the Corridor Study focuses on conditions and land uses fronting US 19 along the Corridor Source: ESRI 5

6 01 Existing Conditions: Land Use and Development Source: HDR Source: Google Earth 1. Mix of Various Land Uses Corridor largely characterized by office uses to the north and industrial uses to the south. Retail node at East Bay Dr/Roosevelt Blvd (Tri- City Plaza redeveloped in 2016.) Residential, including mobile home parks and rental apartment product, dispersed throughout the corridor. 2. Strong Regional Accessibility, Weaker Local Connectivity US 19 and major cross streets connect to major regional destinations (Gateway, Clearwater, Tampa, St. Petersburg, and beaches). Discontinuity in street grid particularly in northern portion of Study Area. 3. Auto-Oriented Form and Pattern Typical auto-centric form of development along frontage roads and major cross streets with limited pedestrian and transit accommodations. 4. Indistinct Character Few character defining features other than water crossing south of Belleair Rd. US 19 completed prior to inclusion of aesthetic and landscape enhancements. 6

7 01 Existing Conditions: Land Use and Development KEY OBSERVATIONS Source: Forward Pinellas, Pinellas County Property Appraiser Corridor frontage and surrounding neighborhoods largely built out. More intensive, community-serving uses on larger parcels at major crossroads. Diverse light industrial and commercial uses on smaller, shallower parcels in in between areas.

8 01 Existing Conditions: Land Use and Development DEVELOPMENT INTENSITY Generally low density/intensity development well below potential entitlements under future land use categories. Only a few self storage and light industrial developments on the corridor have FARs of greater than 0.4. AGE OF CONSTRUCTION Little new investment along the corridor. Limited recent construction activity on East Bay Drive and Roosevelt Blvd (Tri-City redeveloped in 2016). BUILDING VALUE TO LAND VALUE Source: Pinellas County Property Appraiser, HDR Red indicates low building value to land value -- includes mobile home parks and older commercial and light industrial properties with minimal building area. Blue indicates high building value to land value -- includes apartments, offices, and recently constructed commercial properties. 8

9 01 Existing Conditions: Access and Mobility KEY OBSERVATIONS Presence of an interchange appear to have only minimal or indirect influence on land use patterns and market potential. Access to major east-west arterials and access/proximity to Gateway appears to have a great influence of development potential. Source: Forward Pinellas, FDOT

10 02 Housing Analysis HOUSING PROFILE HOUSING STARTS COMPARABLE DEVELOPMENT MARKET POTENTIAL 10

11 02 Housing Analysis: Study Area Housing Profile Study Area Housing Mix, ,425 33% 2,427 18% 5,953 44% 671 5% SF Detached SF Attached Multi Family Mobile Home or other Study Area Owner-Occupied Home Value, % 4% 5% Less than $99,999 $100,000 to $199,999 Study Area Mobile homes represent nearly 33% of housing mix Nearly 80% of owner-occupied housing has a value of less than $200,000, with a median value of $88,517 High housing vacancy rate (20%) may be attributable to seasonal housing use True vacancy rate of 7.2% [1] Better accounts for snowbirds or other seasonal vacationers 25% 54% $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $399,999 $400,000+ Housing Tenure, 2017 Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Unoccupied LARGO STUDY AREA 47% 33% 20% PINELLAS COUNTY 52% 31% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Note: [1] True vacancy rate calculated using unoccupied housing units classified by US Census as For Rent or Other Vacant. Source: ESRI Business Analyst, US Census 11

12 02 Housing Analysis: Housing Starts Pinellas County Housing Permits by type, PRE-RECESSION Total Starts Annual Average Ratio POST-RECESSION Total starts Annual Average Ratio Single Family Detached (buildings) 15,219 1,522 31% 4, % Multi-family (units) 33,146 3,315 69% 16,546 2,758 80% Source: US Census Pinellas County According to permit data, since 2010 Pinellas County has seen an annual average of: 700 single-family detached buildings 2,758 units of multi-family product Single family detached building to multifamily unit ratio: 20/80% Single family product construction pace has slowed since 2010, compared to pre-recession pace of nearly 1,500 buildings annually Study Area Newer multi-family projects were recently delivered, with an additional rental apartment project under construction 8,000 6,729 Pinellas County Housing Permits, Single Family (Buildings) Muti-Family (Units) 6,000 5,417 4,884 4,961 5,353 4,376 4,000 2,000 2,954 2,775 2,574 2,632 2,724 2,252 1,794 2,006 2,183 1,639 1,669 1,786 1,578 1, , Source: US Census 12

13 02 Housing Analysis: Residential Comps GULF TO BAY BLVD BELLEAIR RD E BAY DR ULMERTON RD WHITNEY RD St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport Typical Mobile Home Comp Typical Rental Apartment Comp Newer Rental Apartment Comp Newer Rental Apartment Comp in Region Study Area Study Area Residential Product The Study Area has seen some newer rental apartment activity in recent years, with additional activity in the surrounding area Residential comps selected based on: Location within Study Area or submarket Market-rate product Newer product delivered in last five years Product is more suburban than urban in nature (e.g. 3-4 story product with on-site parking vs. high rise in downtown core) 10 BELCHER RD BRYAN DAIRY RD 6 66 th ST PARK BLVD Comp Unit Count 1 The Apartments at Oak Creek Reserve at Clearwater Donovan's Park Far Horizon 88 5 Vue at Belleair Charleston on 66th Gateway North Epic at Gateway Centre The Boulevard Courtney at Bay Pines Solaris Key Ibis Walk 401 Source: ESRI 13

14 02 Housing Market Assessment: Market-Rate Housing Potential Over the next 20 years, there may be multi-family development potential for three to five rental apartment projects in the Study Area, dependent in large part on the following: Site availability and/or land assembly opportunities. Degree of competition in surrounding areas. Density/Site Considerations: According to interviews with local stakeholders, market research, and analysis, newer rental apartment deliveries will most likely be characterized by: 8 to 15 gross acre site 250 to 300 units DU/gross acre 14

15 03 Retail Analysis RETAIL TYPOLOGIES NATIONAL TRENDS REGIONAL RETAIL STRUCTURE EXISTING RETAIL CLUSTERS MARKET POTENTIAL 15

16 03 Retail Analysis: Retail Typologies Mall & Lifestyle Center REGIONAL OR SUPER-REGIONAL MALL LIFESTYLE CENTER - Typically enclosed - Anchored by 2+ full-line department stores 400,000-1,000,000+ sf - Upscale national-chain specialty stores - Dining and entertainment - Outdoor setting 250, ,000 sf Hybrid HYBRID OF LIFESTYLE CENTER AND POWER/COMMUNITY CENTER Regional Retail Clusters POWER CENTER COMMUNITY CENTER - 3+ category-dominant freestanding anchors of at least 20,000 sf 250, ,000 sf - General merchandise and convenience-oriented - Apparel/soft goods 125, ,000 sf Neighborhood Center Freestanding Retail Strip Retail Downtown 30, ,000 SF - Standalone stores -Often owneroccupied 5, ,000 sf - Small convenience center with goods and services - Limited trade area <30,000 sf - First-floor or standalone < 20,000 SF Source: Based on International Council of Shopping Centers retail classifications 16

17 03 Retail Analysis: National Trends 1 E-commerce is expected to continue to grow 3 Emerging e-commerce business models Physical store brands will continue to capture a large share of that growth E-commerce as a share of total revenue varies by retailer category, brand and price point Just in Time Delivery could make shipping quicker than ever Next-generation sharing economy (rental and secondary markets) Personalization economy (curated subscriptions) On-demand economy (auto-replenishment or smart reordering) Services economy ( Do it for me ) 3% E-Commerce as a Percent of Total Annual National Sales 3% 4% 4% Typical Size: 30,000 50,000 square feet 4% % Source: US BLS; Estimated Annual US Retail Trade Sales 2 Restructuring brick and mortar footprints Stores closing Downsizing size in urban markets Clicks-2-bricks are expanding Omni-channel concepts 5% 6% Typical Size: 3,000 square feet 6% 7% Source: World Economic Forum, Shaping the Future of Retail for Consumer Industries Future retail development patterns will be impacted by a divergence in retail typologies: Experience-focused retail consisting of high-end and lifestyle retail centers offering a mix of uses, including dining and entertainment. Such retail may be found in new construction shopping centers or walkable downtown districts. Convenience- and/or value-focused retail is developed in power, community, and convenience retail centers that sell basic goods and services, including groceries. The purpose of such centers is to provide convenient access to a range of goods and services, without as much concern for the ambience and experience. Value-focused retail. Fast fashion and off-price retail is growing with the rise of discounters looking for value options. Embracing Omni-channel concepts Web and in-store shopping platforms are expected to increase but brick and mortar will not disappear. In the future, some stores will function as showrooms and service centers, as well as retail space. Consumers desire to shop across channels with a smooth experience. 17

18 03 Retail Analysis: Regional Retail Structure Rosery/Missouri Ave Cluster Anchors: Walmart, LA Fitness, Youfit Health Club Total SF: 650,000 Largo Mall Cluster L A R G O Anchors: Bealls Dept. Store, Target, Publix, Regal Largo Mall 8 Cinemas Total SF: 1.1 million C L E A R W A T E R Park/71 st Ave Cluster Anchors: Lowe s, Publix, Pet Supplies Plus Total SF: 800,000 Clearwater Mall Cluster Anchors: Costco, Target, Sam s Club, Lowe's, Publix, PetSmart, Walmart Neighborhood Market Total SF: 2.5 million East Bay Road Cluster Anchors: Publix, Walmart, Ross Dress for Less, LA Fitness Total SF: 800,000 Gandy Road Cluster St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport Anchors: Walmart, Home Depot, Publix, Ashley Furniture Total SF: 1.1 million P I N E L L A S P A R K Tyrone Square Mall Cluster Anchors: JC Penny, Dillard s, Home Depot, Cobb Luxury 10 Theatre Total SF: 2.3 million Study Area Retail Cluster Community Center Regional Power Center Regional Mall Publix Walmart Retail destinations are located in clusters of various typologies in and around the Study Area Total of nearly 9.5 million SF of retail space in three Community Centers, two Power Centers, and two Regional Malls Study Area includes part of East Bay Road Cluster an 800,000 SF Community Center cluster This cluster competes directly with nearby Community Centers such as Rosery/ Missouri Ave Cluster and Park/71 st Cluster Study Area Retail Nearly 2 million SF of retail (12% built since 2010) Impact of elevated highways East Bay Road Cluster (Community Center) has attracted $32 million of reinvestment capital with the full redevelopment of Tri-City Plaza completed in 2016 [1] Note: [1] According to stakeholder interviews and Tampa Bay Times news articles. Source: CoStar, ESRI 18

19 03 Retail Analysis: Market Potential The Study Area has more retail space than the current residential market supports Total retail/consumer services oversupply: Nearly $72M oversupply [1] or a 260,000 SF oversupply [2] Potentially driven by additional demand from local employment and tourist spending, stronger offerings and competition for destination shopping elsewhere in Pinellas County, such as Clearwater Mall or Tyrone Square Mall clusters To the extent that retail wants to locate in this market, likely would locate on E-W corridors Redevelopment of Study Area should consider: Repositioning as a commercial corridor with a greater mix of uses Infilling vacant retail space and/or demolition/replacement of obsolete retail space before adding any significant amounts of new retail uses Road improvements may continue to have a beneficial impact on larger Community Center-type retail clusters located at major crossroads due to increased access and speed (e.g. redevelopment of Tri-City Plaza) Convenience-based retail in less visible or disconnected areas may continue to be negatively affected by elevated roadways or sound walls due to decreased visibility from auto traffic Note: [1] Based on Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink, NAICS 44-45, 722, excluding Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers, Gasoline Stations, and Non-store Retailers Industries. [2] Retail gap converted to SF basis, assuming $275 sales per SF. Source: Esri Business Analyst 19

20 04 Office Analysis OFFICE TYPOLOGIES COMPETITIVE CLASS A SUPPLY STUDY AREA OFFICE EMPLOYMENT PROJECTED GROWTH OFFICE DEVELOPMENT FORECAST 20

21 04 Office Analysis: Typologies (Corporate versus Professional) Type/Class Free-standing Node Class-A Node/Park Corporate Campus Class-A and Class B space Tenants Smaller tenants including professional firms and medical uses Single or multi-tenant Several single-tenant headquarter buildings Size 1-2 stories 1-4 stories Low/mid rise Typical Location Other Characteristics Broadly located, near retail centers and downtown Limited need for direct highway visibility or regional access Located within office parks, typically in the suburbs Lower rent, land costs and barrier to entry Concentrated along major interstates and interchanges with locations accessible to corporate executives High visibility from the interstate 21

22 04 Office Analysis: Competitive Class-A Supply CLEARWATER Bayside LARGO PINELLAS PARK BAY VISTA OFFICE PARK Westshore Gateway TAMPA Downtown Tampa The region s Class-A office product is distributed throughout the region, with clustering in four major office submarkets Westshore, Downtown Tampa, Gateway, and Downtown St. Petersburg submarkets Study Area is located primarily in the smaller Bayside submarket, which has 1.1M SF of Class-A office Limited Class-A office buildings in Study Area Study Area is adjacent to Class-A office Including 240,000 SF of Class-A office in Bay Vista Office Park Bay Vista is directly adjacent to Saint Petersburg/Clearwater Airport and features tenants specializing in technology products and services and health care services Source: CoStar, ESRI Downtown St. Petersburg ST. PETERSBURG Rentable Building Area (SF) Less than 25,000 25, , , ,000 More than 250,000 Millions Submarket Office SF by Class Rest of Office Class A Office Westshore Downtown Tampa Gateway Downtown St. Petersburg Bayside 22

23 04 Office Analysis: Study Area Office Bayside Submarket BELCHER RD BELLEAIR RD E BAY DR ULMERTON RD WHITNEY RD BAY VISTA OFFICE PARK St. Pete- Clearwater International Airport Harbourside, US 19 N, Clearwater, FL Year Built 1987 Avg. Rent $23.00/sf/yr Sq. Ft. 163,362 Vacancy 0.4% Floors 6 Key Tenants EmCare, Morgan Stanley Bayside Center Building II, US 19 N, Clearwater, FL Year Built/ 1997/2007 Avg. Rent $22.00/sf/yr Renovated Sq. Ft. 167,889 Vacancy 40.2% Insurance Key Floors 6 Administrative Tenants Solutions Gateway Submarket Study Area Office Three Class-A buildings in Study Area Office Submarket Analytics Bayside Gateway St. Pete Downtown Tampa Downtown Westshore Buildings Existing SF 3,637,079 9,079,525 4,085,721 9,777,173 17,858,436 SF Under Construction Bayside Center Building I and II: Sustained, high vacancy over last 10 years Bayside submarket: 3.64M SF of office uses (all classes) in 134 buildings Vacancy rate almost double that of other office submarkets in vicinity Gross rent per SF lower than most other submarkets (except nearby Gateway submarket [1] ) Source: CoStar, ESRI Bayside Center Building I, US 19 N, Clearwater, FL Year Built/ 1987/2006 Avg. Rent $22.00/sf/ yr Renovated Sq. Ft. 46,357 Vacancy 52.4% Commonwea Key Floors 4 lth Capital Tenants Corp Gross Rent Per SF $19.86 $18.90 $27.40 $26.47 $26.20 Vacancy Rate 15.10% 6.6% 9.5% 7.3% 7.3% Available SF 520, , , ,169 2,080, Mo. Absorption SF 159, ,604-91, , , Mo. Leasing SF 233, , , ,198 1,191,781 Note: Includes all classes of office, 2018 YTD. Submarket name and boundary as defined by CoStar. Downtowns defined by Central Business District (CBD). Bay Vista Office Park is a subarea of Bayside submarket. [1] Gateway gross rent per SF has ranged from $17.73 to $21.61 in last five years. Source: CoStar 23

24 04 Office Analysis: Office Development Forecast 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - New Office Development Potential Bayside Submarket Total RBA Added (Average) 4,500, ,000 1,000, ,000 1,800, ,000 Rest of County RBA BAYSIDE SUBMARKET: Potential for 1.0M - 1.4M SF of Net New Office Development, Note: [1] Based on historical capture rate. [2] Based on a future 10% vacancy rate and terminal SF/employee ratio of 250. Source: Costar, Moody's Analytics c 600,000 1,000, , , Bayside Submarket Class-A office will likely follow existing locational patterns Tampa, St. Petersburg, Gateway, or Westshore clusters A wild card build-to-suit tenant may find the Bayside submarket conducive to their needs Based on an assumed capture rate of 20-30%, [1] Bayside Submarket has potential for 1.0 to 1.4M SF of new office [2] The Study Area and broader Bayside submarket can help position itself for future development by: Building off proximity to nearby office clusters that may be reaching capacity Leveraging strong transportation connections: sites along major arteries (US 19, Rte. 688 intersection) or near St. Petersburg /Clearwater Airport Targeting business recruitment and/or relocation efforts for key development sites to catalyze additional growth This is a preliminary forecast that is largely dependent on various factors, including: Broader economic conditions or cycles: Macroeconomic or redevelopment/infill environment cycling Land limitations/site assembly efforts Intensification of existing space or upcycling product Level of public financial intervention Master planning efforts 24

25 05 Hotel Analysis COMPETITIVE SUPPLY MARKET TRENDS MARKET POTENTIAL 25

26 05 Hotel Analysis: Competitive Supply BELLEAIR RD E BAY DR US 19 GULF TO BAY RD WHITNEY RD St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport Economy Class Midscale Class Upper Midscale Upscale Study Area PALM HARBOR Hotel Competitive Supply Majority of hotels in Study Area s competitive set are Midscale to Upper Midscale class Economy class hotels/motels have been excluded from this analysis However, it is notable that an 122-key economy class Woodspring Suites was delivered in the Study Area in October 2016 Study Area is adjacent to larger hotel cluster in tri-county region: Cluster along Ulmerton near St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport ULMERTON RD BELCHER RD ZOOM BRYAN DAIRY RD PARK BLVD ST. PETERSBURG I-275 CLEARWATER TAMPA LARGO ST. PETERSBURG Hotel by Class Keys Economy keys 1 WoodSpring Suites Signature Clearwater 122 Midscale keys 2 Candlewood Suites Clearwater La Quinta Inns & Suites Clearwater Airport La Quinta Inns & Suites Clearwater Central La Quinta Inns & Suites Clearwater South 84 La Quinta Inns & Suites Tampa Bay Pinellas Park 6 Clearwater Magnuson Hotel Clearwater Central 85 Quality Inn & Suites St Petersburg Clearwater 8 Airport Quality Inn Central Clearwater Ramada Limited Clearwater Hotel & Suites Sleep Inn Clearwater 81 Upper Midscale - 1,143 keys 12 Clarion Inn & Suites Clearwater Comfort Inn & Suites Clearwater Fairfield Inn & Suites Clearwater Fairfield Inn St Petersburg Clearwater Hampton Inn Clearwater Central 178 Hampton Inn Suites Clearwater St Petersburg 17 Ulmerton 128 Source: CoStar, ESRI, STR ULMERTON RD 18 Holiday Inn Express Clearwater East ICOT Center Holiday Inn St Petersburg North Clearwater TownePlace Suites St Petersburg Clearwater 95 Upscale keys 21 Courtyard St Petersburg Clearwater Homewood Suites Clearwater Residence Inn St Petersburg Clearwater Springhill Suites St Petersburg Clearwater 79 26

27 05 Hotel Analysis: Market Trends Annual Occupancy, Select Competitive Hotels 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar), Select Competitive Hotels $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 58.0% Note: Annual data reported through October. Woodspring Suites economy class hotel and other economy class not included in competitive supply dataset. Source: STR $ % 62.7% $48.93 $ % $ % 74.3% 73.1% $65.98 $69.50 $ Competitive Supply Performance These charts represent performance metrics for the previously mapped competitive supply of hotels Annual occupancy rates have steadily increased since 2011 to nearly 73% in 2017 Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar) is a key indicator of hotel market performance, measuring both room rates and occupancy Study Area hotel market RevPar has experienced strong increases in this metric since 2011 Note: Annual data reported through October. Woodspring Suites economy class hotel and other economy class not included in competitive supply dataset. Source: STR 37

28 05 Hotel Analysis: Market Potential Hotel market performance in/surrounding the Study Area suggests that market performance may support additional hotel development Sustained improvements in both occupancies and RevPAR are positive Performance metrics (Average Annual Room Occupancy and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR)) of the area s hotel market suggest a possible near-term (i.e., three to five years) market potential for hotel development Based on characteristics of the area s competitive hotel set, new hotel development (nearterm) may be characterized by: Location on or near major corridor or intersection, or near airport Limited service Midscale Class (Average hotel has nearly 100 keys) or Upper Midscale class (Average hotel has nearly 125 keys) Potential hotel development may occur within the broader submarket, not necessarily within the Study Area boundary 28

29 06 Conclusions MARKET POTENTIAL CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 29

30 06 Market Potential - Largo Residential Potential for three to five market-rate rental apartment projects through 2040 Dependent on land availability/site assembly efforts, economic conditions, and other factors. US 19 improvements may have enhanced access for future residential development in the Study Area. Retail The Study Area has more retail space than the current market supports. Approximate retail/consumer services oversupply: $72M excess supply (260,000 SF). Areas with US 19 corridor improvements, street networks, and parallel local roadways will likely fare better than more isolated sites, especially east-west corridors intersecting US 19. Office Bayside Submarket has potential for 1.0 to 1.4M SF of office space through 2040 May be opportunity to build off Bay Vista Office Park or larger Gateway submarket. Potential development dependent on factors such as broader economic conditions, submarket capture rate, land limitations/site assembly efforts, intensification of existing space or upcycling product, level of public financial intervention, and master planning efforts. Hotel Hotel market performance suggests support for additional hotel development (near term) Potential hotel development may occur within the area submarket, not necessarily within the Study Area boundary. 30

31 06 Challenges and Opportunities Limited Potential for Transformational Change Crossroad sites and frontage sites along US 19 are largely built out. Few larger scale vacant sites available for development. Redevelopment potential limited due to shallow lot depths, fragmented ownership, and access challenges. However, market analysis indicates potential for new investment. Proximity to Gateway Impacts Competitive Position Arterial crossroad locations benefit from visibility and regional accessibility. Frontage road locations less attractive to investment. Limited street networks, parallel local roadways, and cross-parcel connections result in isolated sites. Isolated and older retail, light industrial, and mobile home park properties may be slow to redevelop. Key Policy Questions Gateway-adjacent opportunities -- employment intensive uses vs. multifamily residential. Future of mobile home park sites. Strategy to increase shovelreadiness through incentives for parcel consolidation and redevelopment. Investment in place-making improvements -- development standards, aesthetic enhancements, gateway improvements, etc. Investments to improve safety and multimodal accommodations.

32 TARPON SPRINGS 01 Existing Conditions 02 Housing Analysis 03 Retail Analysis 04 Office Analysis 05 Hotel Analysis 06 Conclusions 32

33 01 Existing Conditions CONTEXT/CORRIDOR LOCATION LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT ACCESS AND MOBILITY POPULATION MEDIAN INCOME EMPLOYMENT 33

34 01 Existing Conditions: Context/Corridor Location 3.5-mile commercial corridor from the Pinellas County Line south to Klosterman Road Study Area spans 0.75 miles outward from the Corridor ANCLOTE BLVD PASCO COUNTY PINELLAS COUNTY This study primarily focuses on conditions and land uses fronting US 19 along the Corridor Historic Sponge Docks Downtown Tarpon Springs TARPON AVE US 19 Tarpon Springs Palm Harbor Clearwater STUDY AREA PASCO COUNTY HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY PINELLAS COUNTY Tampa KLOSTERMAN RD St. Petersburg STUDY AREA Source: ESRI 34

35 01 Existing Conditions: Land Use and Development 1. Moderate Regional Accessibility US 19 is the major arterial road to access the surrounding region. 2. Auto-Oriented Form and Pattern Typical arterial corridor, with auto-centric forms of development. Limited pedestrian and transit accommodations. Discontinuous secondary street network and lack of cross-parcel connections limits local access. 3. Gateway to Regional Destinations Including Downtown Tarpon Springs and Historic Sponge Docks areas. 4. Limited Development Activity No new market-rate rental apartment deliveries in nearly ten years. No Class-A office within Study Area. Some retail activity. Source: Google Earth 35

36 01 Existing Conditions: Land Use and Development KEY OBSERVATIONS Corridor frontage and surrounding areas largely built out. Cluster of community-serving uses on larger parcels at Tarpon Avenue intersection. Small scale, isolated retail uses along frontage. Source: Forward Pinellas, Pinellas County Property Appraiser 36

37 01 Existing Conditions: Land Use and Development KEY OBSERVATIONS Source: Forward Pinellas, Pinellas County Property Appraiser, FEMA Floodplains impacts development potential along much of corridor

38 01 Existing Conditions: Land Use and Development DEVELOPMENT DENSITY Generally low density/intensity development well below potential entitlements under future land use categories. AGE OF CONSTRUCTION Modest new investment along the corridor. All quadrants of Tarpon Avenue intersection developed or redeveloped in the past 20 years. BUILDING VALUE TO LAND VALUE Source: Pinellas County Property Appraiser, HDR Red indicates low building value to land value -- includes mobile home parks with minimal building area. Blue indicates high building value to land value -- includes apartments, offices, and recently constructed commercial properties

39 02 Housing Analysis HOUSING PROFILE HOUSING STARTS COMPARABLE DEVELOPMENT MARKET POTENTIAL 39

40 02 Housing Analysis: Study Area Housing Profile Study Area Housing Mix, ,295 27% Study Area Owner-Occupied Home Value, % 1,642 19% SF Detached 9% 505 6% 6% 4,161 48% 39% SF Attached Multi Family Mobile Home or Other Less than $99,999 $100,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $399,999 Study Area Mobile homes represent nearly 20% of housing mix. Nearly 70% of owner-occupied housing has a value of less than $200,000, with a median value of $134,097. High housing vacancy rate (15%) may be attributable to seasonal housing use. True vacancy rate of 7.7% [1] Better accounts for snowbirds or other seasonal vacationers $400, % Housing Tenure, 2017 Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Unoccupied TARPON SPRINGS STUDY AREA 52% 34% 15% PINELLAS COUNTY 52% 31% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Note: [1] True vacancy rate estimated using unoccupied housing units classified by US Census as For Rent or Other Vacant. Source: ESRI Business Analyst, US Census 40

41 02 Housing Analysis: Housing Starts Pinellas County Housing Permits by type, Source: US Census PRE-RECESSION Total Starts Annual Average Ratio POST-RECESSION Total starts Annual Average Ratio Single Family Detached (buildings) 15,219 1,522 31% 4, % Multi-family (units) 33,146 3,315 69% 16,546 2,758 80% Pinellas County According to permit data, since 2010 Pinellas County has seen an annual average of: 700 single-family detached buildings. 2,758 units of multi-family product. Single family detached building to multifamily unit ratio: 20/80%. Single family product construction pace has slowed since 2010, compared to pre-recession pace of nearly 1,500 buildings annually. Study Area No new market-rate multifamily construction in Study Area in over five years. 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Source: US Census 1, ,006 6,729 2,954 1,639 1,669 5,417 2,252 Pinellas County Housing Permits, Single Family (Buildings) Muti-Family (Units) 4,884 4,961 2,775 1,786 2, ,578 2, , ,632 5, ,724 1,663 4,376 41

42 02 Housing Analysis: Residential Comps PASCO COUNTY ANCLOTE BLVD TARPON AVE KLOSTERMAN RD CURLEW RD FL ALDERMAN RD 2 Typical Mobile Home Comp Typical Rental Apartment Comp Newer Rental Apartment Comp in Region Study Area T A R P O N S P R I N G S PINELLAS COUNTY Study Area Residential Product Study Area characterized by older rental apartment stock, mobile home parks, and some affordable rental product. No new market-rate rental apartment activity in Study Area in recent years. Residential comps selected based on: Located within Study Area or submarket. Market-rate product. Newer product (delivered in last ten years). Product is more suburban than urban in nature (e.g. 3-4 story product with on-site parking vs. high-rise in downtown core). C L E A R W A T E R GULF TO BAY RD BELLAIR RD ULMERTON RD PARK BLVD N Project Unit Count 1 Cypress Place 96 2 Stillwater Palms Tarpon Glen Hillside Mobile Home Park 46 5 Epic at Gateway Centre Gateway North Charleston on 66th 258 Source: Costar, ESRI 42

43 02 Housing Market Assessment: Market-Rate Housing Potential Over the next 20 years, there may be multi-family development potential for up to two to four rental apartment projects in the Study Area, dependent on the following: Site availability and/or land assembly opportunities. New competition outside the Study Area. According to interviews with local stakeholders, market research, and analysis, rental apartment deliveries will most likely be characterized by: 8 to 15 gross acre site. 250 to 300 units DU/gross acre. Impact of Proposed US 19 Road Improvements on Access/ Visibility: Interchange and other road improvements to the south may improve access to regional employment, shopping and entertainment destinations Access management improvements not likely to impact residential development potential. 43

44 03 Retail Analysis: RETAIL TYPOLOGIES EXISTING RETAIL CLUSTERS MARKET POTENTIAL 44

45 03 Retail Analysis: Retail Structure Historic Sponge Docks Cluster Anchors: General retail, tourist-oriented retail Total SF: 240,000 Holiday Cluster Anchors: Home Depot, Save A Lot, Winn- Dixie Total SF: 330,000 ANCLOTE BLVD TARPON AVE Downtown Cluster Anchors: Tarpon Plaza, Manatee Village Mall Total SF: 530,000 KLOSTERMAN RD ALDERMAN RD Nebraska Cluster Anchors: Publix, Office Depot, Michaels, Ross Total SF: 380,000 CURLEW RD Curlew Crossing Cluster Anchors: Home Depot, Publix, Petco, Staples Total SF: 430,000 Mitchell Ranch Plaza Cluster Anchors: Target, Walmart, Publix, Marshalls Total SF: 570,000 Tarpon Cluster Anchors: Walmart, Publix, Staples, TJ Maxx, Big Lots Total SF: 490,000 Oldsmar Cluster P A S C O C O U N T Y P I N E L L A S C O U N T Y Alderman Cluster Anchors: Walmart, Publix, Walgreens Total SF: 350,000 Anchors: Walmart Supercenter, Aldi, Ross Dress for Less Total SF: 460,000 ANCLOTE BLVD TARPON AVE KLOSTERMAN RD Study Area Retail Cluster Type Downtown Community Center Regional Mall Power Center Walmart Publix P A S C O C O U N T Y P I N E L L A S C O U N T Y Retail Structure Retail nodes are located in clusters of various typologies in and around the Study Area. Nearly 4M SF of retail space in six Community Centers, one Power Center, one Regional Mall, and two Downtown Clusters. Study Area includes Tarpon Community Center Cluster (500,000 SF) and competes directly with nearby Community Centers such as the Alderman and Holiday Clusters. Study Area Retail Nearly 1.8 million SF of retail. Proposed interchange improvement impact on the following cluster typologies: Community Center-type retail: neutral to improved, due to increased access. Convenience-driven retail: neutral to negative, dependent on factors such as: Level of visibility: building, signage, rate of automobile speed Access: location near interchange vs. interstitial areas Source: CoStar, ESRI FL-580 Westfield Countryside Mall Cluster Anchors: Macy's, Sears, Lowe's, Kohl's, Kmart, Fresh Market Total SF: 1.3M 45

46 03 Retail Analysis: Market Potential The Study Area has some market potential for additional retail space. Approximate retail/consumer services undersupply: $21.5M gap; [1] or 80,000 SF [2] Potential retail development may most likely be characterized by a traditional suburban format (e.g. neighborhood or strip center with surface parking). Access management improvements along US 19 could have a beneficial impact on larger Community Center-type retail clusters located at major crossroads. Convenience-based retail in less visible or disconnected areas could be negatively affected by access changes. Retail in areas with street networks and parallel local roadways may likely fare better than retail in more isolated interstitial areas. Note: [1] Based on Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink, NAICS 44-45, 722, excluding Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers, Gasoline Stations, and Non-store Retailers industries. [2] Retail gap converted to SF basis, assuming $275 sales per SF. Source: Esri Business Analyst 46

47 04 Office Analysis COMPETITIVE CLASS A SUPPLY STUDY AREA OFFICE MARKET POTENTIAL 47

48 04 Office Analysis: Competitive Class-A Supply TARPON SPRINGS P A S C O C O U N T Y P I N E L L A S C O U N T Y North Pinellas Northwest Tampa The region s Class-A office product is distributed throughout the region, with clustering in major office submarkets: Westshore, Downtown Tampa, Gateway, and Downtown St. Petersburg. Minor submarkets include Bayside, Northwest Tampa, and North Pinellas. No Class-A office located within or adjacent to the Tarpon Springs Study Area. CLEARWATER Westshore Study Area is located outside major regional office clustering patterns. Bayside Gateway Downtown Tampa TAMPA Millions Submarket Office SF by Class Rest of Office Class A Office Downtown St. Petersburg ST. PETERSBURG Study Area Westshore Downtown Tampa Gateway Downtown St. Petersburg Study Area 48

49 04 Office Analysis: Study Area Office FL-54 ANCLOTE BLVD TARPON AVE KLOSTERMAN RD ALDERMAN RD PASCO COUNTY PINELLAS COUNTY Study Area Study Area is located outside major regional office clustering patterns. However, Study Area is situated between several professional and medical office clusters in the surrounding area, including: Downtown Tarpon Springs area Morton Plant North Bay Hospital area Palm Harbor area along US 19 Proposed road improvements in the Study Area are likely to be neutral or result in limited impact for potential office development. Office uses typically consider factors such as proximity to workforce in locational decisions. Speed of travel is typically not as important for professional offices, which prefer to locate near residential populations. Source: CoStar, ESRI 49

50 04 Office Analysis: Market Potential Study Area is located outside major regional office clustering patterns Unlikely that Class-A professional office users will locate within the Study Area. Speculative office space without an identified anchor tenant and/or targeted outreach would be relatively risky. A wild card build-to-suit tenant may find this location conducive to their needs. Potential access management improvements in the Study Area are likely to be neutral or result in limited impact for potential office development. The Study Area can help position itself for future development by: Targeting business recruitment or relocation efforts for key development sites to catalyze additional growth. Tarpon Ave and US 19 intersection may be the most likely location in the near term, but is currently characterized by mostly retail uses. 50

51 05 Hotel Analysis COMPETITIVE SUPPLY MARKET TRENDS MARKET POTENTIAL 51

52 05 Hotel Analysis: Competitive Supply Source: CoStar, ESRI, STR ANCLOTE BLVD TARPON AVE KLOSTERMAN RD ALDERMAN RD CURLEW RD HOLIDAY PASCO COUNTY PINELLAS COUNTY TARPON SPRINGS PALM HARBOR CLEARWATER Midscale Class Upper Midscale Upscale Study Area PASCO COUNTY PINELLAS COUNTY PALM HARBOR LARGO ST. PETERSBURG TAMPA Hotel Competitive Supply Economy motels in and around the Study Area were excluded due to age, level of service, and other factors that make them otherwise uncompetitive Majority of hotels in or near Study Area are Midscale or Upper Midscale, with some clustering near southern end of Study Area (Palm Harbor area) Most recent hotel delivery included: 150-key Quality Inn & Suites Conference Center New Port Richey (Dec 2015) Study Area is largely outside major hotel clustering patterns in tri-county area Hotel by Class Keys Midscale 358 keys 1 Lake Tarpon Resort 98 2 Quality Inn & Suites Conference Center New Port Richey Quality Inn & Suites Tarpon Springs 110 Upper Midscale 247 keys 4 Hampton Inn Suites Tarpon Springs 84 5 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Clearwater North Dunedin 76 6 Holiday Inn Express & Suites Trinity 87 Upscale keys 7 Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club

53 05 Hotel Analysis: Market Trends Annual Occupancy, Select Competitive Hotels 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar), Select Competitive Hotels $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 49.7% Note: Annual data reported through October. Source: STR $ % 55.8% 53.8% $48.93 $49.99 $ % $ % $ % $ Competitive Supply Performance These charts represent performance metrics for the previously mapped competitive supply of hotels Recent improvements in occupancies and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar) are positive trends However, continued strengthening of the area s hotel market will be needed to sustain new hotel construction in the nearterm (i.e., three to five years) Note: Annual data reported through October. Source: STR 53

54 05 Hotel Analysis: Market Potential Overall, hotel market performance in/surrounding the Study Area suggests that performance is currently insufficient to support additional hotel development in near term. Performance metrics (Average Annual Room Occupancy, Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR)) of the area s hotel market suggest that near-term market potentials for hotel development are limited. While recent improvements in occupancies and rates are positive, continued strengthening of the area s hotel performance metrics will be required to sustain new hotel construction in the near-term. City s position as a tourist destination may improve opportunities. Access improvements along US 19 would most likely result in neutral or limited impact for potential hotel development in near term. 54

55 06 Conclusions MARKET POTENTIAL CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES 55

56 06 Conclusions: Market Potential Overview Residential Potential for two to four rental apartment projects through Dependent on site availability/site assembly efforts among other factors. Previous development in last five to ten years may indicate that the future deliveries may be affordable product rather than market-rate. Retail The Study Area has limited market potential for additional retail space: Approximate retail/consumer services undersupply: $21.5M undersupply (80,000 SF). Office Limited potential for Class-A or corporate office space in near term. Study Area is located outside major regional office clustering patterns. Hotel Hotel market performance in/surrounding the Study Area suggests that market performance is currently insufficient to support additional hotel development but City s position as a tourist destination may improve opportunities. 56

57 06 Conclusions: Challenges & Opportunities Potential Impact of Access Improvements Access improvements not likely to materially impact development potential. Residential may benefit in the form of increased access and faster travel with grade separation to the south. Larger community centertype retail located at major crossroads may benefit somewhat but locations away from major cross roads are expected to be negatively affected. Office and hotel land uses may be largely unaffected. Limited Potential for Transformational Change Crossroad sites and frontage sites along US 19 are largely built out. Few larger scale vacant sites available for development. Redevelopment potential limited due to shallow lot depths, fragmented ownership, and access challenges. Market analysis indicates limited potential for new investment. Key Policy Questions Future of floodplain and mobile home park sites -- isolated but highly visible and in single ownership. Investment in place-making improvements -- development standards, aesthetic enhancements, gateway improvements, etc. Investments to improve safety, connectivity, and multimodal accommodations. 57