Softening demand and new supply lifts vacancy
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- Dina Allison
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1 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Calgary Office, Q Softening demand and new supply lifts vacancy Vacancy Rate 15.4% Asking Net Rent $21.15 per sq. ft. Net Absorption (475,528 sq. ft.) Completions 79,153 sq. ft. Figure 1: Market Fundamentals *Arrows indicate change from previous quarter. Absorption and Supply (000s sq. ft.) Vacancy Rate (%) 1,000 20% % % 250 5% 0 0% (250) -5% (500) -10% Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate Q witnessed 79,153 sq. ft. of new supply added to inventory. Four large blocks of space came to market, adding up to a combined 438,439 sq. ft. of space for lease. Suburban office space vacancy increased by 230 bps to 15.4%. Of the speculative projects in the pipeline, 632,784 sq. ft. is slated to be delivered in 2015, the majority of which will be added in the South submarket. Low energy prices have pushed some tenants into a wait and see posture, allowing opportunistic tenants to lease spaces that would have previously been unattainable due to competition from larger firms. The Suburban office market reflected the recent drop in energy prices with 475,528 sq. ft. of negative net absorption during Q Most of the space returned over the quarter was Class A, accounting for 446,709 sq. ft. of the negative net absorption. 360,000 sq. ft. was returned by a single tenant who gave space back in two separate properties: Southland Park 1 and Sundance Place. Two other tenants each contributed close to 40,000 sq. ft. bringing the aggregate total negative net absorption from the three tenants to 438,439 sq. ft. The first quarter of the year typically experiences weak demand for suburban office space. The weak demand may also be overstating the current market as some prospective tenants sit on the sidelines and consider the many alternatives. Q CBRE Research 2015, CBRE Limited 1
2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Figure 2: Market Statistics Q Submarket Inventory Vacancy Rate (%) Sublease Space Net Absorption Under Construction Net Asking Rents ($ per ) Beltline 5,968, ,331 (110,568) 316, South Central 3,938, ,028 4, , South 5,207, ,600 (387,148) 1,431, Northeast 5,906, ,590 33,243 96, Northwest 2,239, ,502 (15,394) 90, Total 23,259, ,051 (475,528) 2,166, Source: CBRE Research, Q NET ASKING RENTS Q witnessed an adjustment in net asking rents across all building classes. This was most pronounced in the Beltline. While negative net absorption took place primarily in Class A space, rents dropped across all classes and submarkets as landlords made an effort to remain competitive with attractively priced sublease space. OUTLOOK Looking forward to Q2 2015, rental rates will face downward pressure from both weaker demand and new supply. Uncertainty has held up decision making, which could improve in the second half of 2015 pending the performance of energy prices. Figure 3: Suburban Net Asking Rents Net Asking Rent (per sq. ft.) $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 Beltline Overall Class A Class B Class C Q CBRE Research 2015, CBRE Limited 2
3 NEW SUPPLY AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION Figure 4: Under Construction The market added Crowfoot 75 and the Arcuri Business Centre to our inventory for Q1 2015, with the two buildings contributing 79,153 sq. ft. of space to the Northwest submarket. Neither property had pre-lease commitments for space and, as such, contributed to the rise in our vacancy rate. There is currently 2.2 million sq. ft. of suburban office space under construction, which is in line with long-term averages, particularly when considering 661,000 sq. ft. of that represents the remaining phases of Imperial Oil s new home in Quarry Park. Of the speculative projects in the pipeline, 632,784 sq. ft. is slated to be delivered in 2015, the majority of which will be added in the South submarket. Northeast, 144, ,784 sq. ft. South, 349,926 South Central, 138,496 Figure 5: Under Construction Property name Submarket Address Size (sq. ft.) Expected Completion Crowfoot 75 Northwest 75 Crowfoot Rise 52,329 Added to inventory Arcuri Business Centre Northwest 70 Country Hills Landing NW 26,823 Added to inventory Fountain Court - Building 1 South Central Glenmore Tr. & Blackfoot Tr. 24,406 Q Fountain Court - Building 2 South Central Glenmore Tr. & Blackfoot Tr. 36,544 Q Fountain Court - Building 3 South Central Glenmore Tr. & Blackfoot Tr. 29,546 Q Douglasdale Medical & Professional Centre II South Avenue SE 48,000 Q Quarry Crossing Building B South 50 Quarry Park Blvd. SE 161,926 Q Seton Professional Centre East & West South 4448 Front Street SE 96,908 Q Imperial Oil Campus - Quarry Park South 275 Quarry Park Blvd. SE 661,000 Q Place 10 - East Tower Beltline th Avenue SW 316,500 Q The Windsor South Central 50th Avenue & Elbow Drive SW 70,113 Q The District at North Deerfoot Northeast Deerfoot Tr. & Country Hills Blvd. 96,145 Q Computer Modelling Group Headquarters Northwest rd Avenue NW 90,000 Q Quarry Crossing II Building D Southeast th Avenue SE 149,750 Q Quarry Crossing II Building C Southeast th Avenue SE 181,100 Q Quarry Crossing II Building E Southeast th Avenue SE 181,100 Q Garrison Corner South Central nd Street SW 23,000 TBD Source: CBRE Research, Q Q CBRE Research 2015, CBRE Limited 3
4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2015f Q1 2016f Figure 6: Notable Lease Transactions Size (sq. ft.) Tenant Building Name Industry 48,000 Alberta Health Services Sunridge Medical Gallery Medical 27,000 City of Calgary Sunridge Government 14,100 Canadian Back Institute Intergraph Building Medical Figure 7: Calgary Total Employment & Unemployment Rate Total Employment - Calgary (000s) 1200 Unemployment Rate (%) 12% % 800 8% 600 6% 400 4% 200 2% 0 0% Total Employment - Calgary (LHS) Calgary Unemployment Rate (RHS) Source: Conference Board of Canada, CBRE Research, Q THE ECONOMY The consensus forecast for Alberta s 2015 economic growth is close to zero, with the range of estimates deviating little from a no growth scenario. For context, six years ago during the global financial crisis, Alberta suffered a 4.2% contraction to its economy, while unemployment climbed above 7.0%. In Calgary, the unemployment rate peaked at 7.5% in Q In February, Alberta lost 14,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 5.3%. This was an 80- basis-point (bps) rise over the previous month and represents the highest jobless rate since September In the Calgary census metropolitan area, employment rose by 2,100 jobs during February, up 0.3% from January. Despite the gain, the unemployment rate advanced 30 bps to 5.0%. According to the Conference Board of Canada (CBoC), Calgary can expect to see 7,067 jobs slashed over H The CBoC is calling for the city s unemployment rate to climb over the course of 2015 before peaking at 6.3% in Q Q CBRE Research 2015, CBRE Limited 4
5 SUBMARKET MAP CBRE segregates the suburban office market into five submarkets; Northeast, Northwest, South Central, South and Beltline. The Beltline submarket represents the area immediately South of the downtown core. It is bounded by the CP rail tracks to the North, 17 th Ave. on the South, Macleod Trail on the East and 14 th St. on the West. The Beltline also includes commercial buildings in the concentrations in Scarboro, Victoria Park, 4 th St. SW corridor just south of 17 th Ave. and the area of Mission. The South Central submarket, excluding the Beltline and the downtown core, is bounded on the North by the Bow River on the West side of Deerfoot Trail and 17 th Ave. SE on the East side of Deerfoot Trail. The South Central south border is Glenmore Trail between 14 St. SW and the Bow River where the boarder drops down to Heritage Dr.. The South submarket is comprised of all areas South of Heritage Dr. and Glenmore Trail. The Northeast submarket covers the area North of 17 th Ave. SE and the Bow River and East of Centre St. North. The Northwest submarket is bounded on the South by the Bow River and on the East by Centre St. North. CONTACTS Jeffrey Hurren Senior Research Analyst jeffrey.hurren@cbre.com Chris Ghersinich Research Analyst chris.ghersinich@cbre.com OUR OFFICES CBRE Calgary 530 8th Avenue SW, Suite 500 Calgary, AB T2P 3S8 To learn more about CBRE Global Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE Limited clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE Limited.
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