Oldham/Rochdale Partners in Action

Transcription

1 Oldham/Rochdale Partners in Action : Final Report May 2005 reference: P:\PDR\WP04000\Current Jobs\Oldham Rochdale\Reports\HMA Final ( ).doc Contact: Iain Jenkinson Tel: iain.jenkinson@gvagrimley.co.uk (0)

2 Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Defining the Housing Market Area 5 3 Demographic Change 34 4 Economic Perspectives 53 5 Strategic Context 78 6 Dwelling Stock Profile Current Demand: Private Sector Current Demand: Social Sector Housing Needs Considering Supply Stocks and Flows Modelling Future Supply and Demand Dynamics of Adjacent Markets Conclusion 200 July 2005

3 1 Introduction Background 1.1 Oldham/Rochdale has been designated as one of nine Pathfinder areas across the Midlands and the North identified by Government to benefit from Housing Market Renewal (HMR) funding. These nine sub-regional areas are amongst the most deprived in the country, and exhibit a number of signs of significant housing market dysfunction or failure. 1.2 The Oldham/Rochdale Pathfinder Oldham/Rochdale Partners in Action - covers a number of neighbourhoods have been identified where demand for homes is poor and there is a risk of market collapse. Through sustained investment over a 15 year period it is intended to turn around these areas to create sustainable communities and housing markets in which supply and demand are balanced. 1.3 Oldham/Rochdale Partners in Action has develop a detailed prospectus, published in December 2003, which establishes the strategic direction for the Pathfinder and more detailed plans and projects for four neighbourhoods as the basis for initial intervention. This has been used as a basis for secured funding of 53.5m from the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) for the first three years of the programme (2004/5 2005/6). 1.4 In 2005 the Pathfinder must submit a scheme update, developing its initial prospectus and detailing projects for the subsequent funding period (2006/7 2008/9). Effective targeting of this investment requires a thorough understanding of the housing market the current supply/demand dynamic; key drivers; and possible trajectories of change and to this end the Pathfinder Partnership have commissioned this research. Objectives of the 1.5 The is specifically intended to respond to the recommendations of the Audit Commission in: Improving and refining the information base particularly through further investigative analysis and introducing more commercial feedback; Improving the framework for adjacency analysis particularly considering the impact of migration patterns and the implications of change in neighbouring pathfinder areas; Improving the understanding of housing market drivers and dynamics particularly economic change; and July

4 Identifying the characteristics of a sustainable housing market as the basis for intervention. 1.6 Through detailed research the intention is to develop a more thorough understanding of the housing market within the pathfinder area, and its relationship with other parts of the two boroughs and the wider Greater Manchester sub-region as a basis for effective intervention. Report Structure 1.7 This report is structured as follows: Section 1: Defining the Housing Market considers migration and travel to work patterns to assess the spatial extent of the housing market and identify sub-market areas within it; Section 2: Demographic Change assesses trends and geographic patterns of population and household change; Section 3: Economic Perspectives considers the current economic position of the two Boroughs and future economic trajectories; Section 4: Strategic Context sets the current policy context for intervention, considering existing strategies/ guidance at the national, sub-regional and local levels; Section 5: Dwelling Stock Profile establishes the current housing stock profile in terms of tenure, housing types and sizes; Section 6: Current Demand: Private Sector considers evidence of demand for housing in the private sector; Section 7: Current Demand: Social Sector considers evidence of demand for social housing; Section 8: Housing Needs assesses evidence of demand from housing needs studies, as well as latent demand arising from overcrowding; Section 9: Housing Supply considers the current policy framework and recent trends in new construction by type and tenure, as well as the impact of right-to-buys on housing supply by tenure; Section 10: Stocks and Flows uses a systems approach to present trends in the supply/demand dynamic over the last few years; July

5 Section 11: Modelling Future Supply and Demand models supply and demand for housing for a number of geographical areas in Oldham and Rochdale in order to further understanding of potential trajectories of change in the housing market and define a sustainable housing market in 2019; Section 12: Dynamics of Adjacent Markets assesses the opportunity for Oldham/Rochdale to capture overspill demand from households effectively priced out of adjacent housing market areas; as well as the lilkely impact of market restructuring activities in adjacent Pathfinder areas; and Section 13: Conclusion ties together the research undertaken to set out the implications for the Pathfinder programme and intervention activities. July

6 2 Defining the Housing Market Area 2.1 A housing market exists where willing buyers and sellers are in contact with one another it is a geographically-limited area because most people seeking to buy or rent will remain within a fairly limited area, primarily reflecting ties with friends and family, employment and schools/ educational facilities. Housing markets, in practical terms, are therefore areas which contain both the origin and destination of the majority of households who move. 2.2 The Manual 1 identifies the principal considerations which influence the identification of functional housing markets: Patterns of relocation within a local area by homeowners or tenants (patterns of migration); Travel to work patterns; Identification of areas of high and low demand. 2.3 In technical terms, housing markets should be defined based upon patterns of relocation derived from migration data, and it is these flows of people which are of most importance in defining coherent market areas. However the process is not an exact science 2, and the Manual recommends the use of a variety of measures and the incorporation of local knowledge and expertise. Patterns of Relocation 2.4 The degree of self-containment in relation to patterns of relocation (migration patterns) is particularly important in defining coherent market areas. A tiered approach has been adopted to assessing migration patterns in Oldham/Rochdale 3, considering: Flows between local authorities areas; Flows between wards; and Flows for different ethnic groups. Migration Patterns between Local Authorities 2.5 Migration patterns between local authority areas are published annually by the Office for National Statistics, using the National Health Service Central Health Register (NHS CHR) 1 Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (Feb 2004) Manual, ODPM, London. 2 Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (2004, 26) July

7 which records GP re-registrations. The most recent data that is currently available is for the financial year 2002/ Figures 1 and 2 present migration movements over 50 persons in 2002/3 between Oldham and Rochdale and other local authorities in England and Wales. Migration movements are characteristically short distance, and so we would expect the greatest volume of movements to be with adjacent local authority areas. Figure 1: Migration Movements to/from Oldham of Over 50 Persons in 2002/3 Oldham In Migration Out Migration Net Migration Birmingham Blackpool Bolton Bradford Bury Calderdale High Peak Kirkleees Lancaster Leeds Liverpool Manchester Rochdale Rossendale Salford Sheffield Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Wyre Source: NHSCHR 2002/3 2.7 As we would expect, the greatest migration movements are between Oldham, and Manchester, Rochdale and Tameside. In terms of net migration, in 2002/3 Oldham gained population from mainly from Manchester (320 persons) but is exporting people to Rochdale (200 persons), Kirlees (- 100 persons), and Wyre (- 90 persons). There are smaller net losses to other local authorities, including Bury and Stockport within Greater Manchester. 2.8 In Rochdale the greatest migration movements are with Manchester, Oldham, Bury and Rossendale all areas which share borders with Rochdale. In 2002/3 Rochdale gained population from Oldham (200 persons) and Bury (90 persons), but lost population to Rossendale (- 200 persons) and Calderdale (- 100 persons). 3 Oldham MBC and Rochdale MBC are developing a model to map migration flows using Council Tax records. This is part of a wider plan to map migration movements across Greater Manchester. When complete this should inform the review of the. July

8 Figure 2: Migration Movements to/from Rochdale of Over 50 Persons in 2002/3 Rochdale In Migration Out Migration Net Migration Birmingham Blackpool Bolton Bradford Bury Calderdale Flyde Kirklees Leeds Liverpool Manchester Preston Rossendale Salford Sheffield South Lakeland Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Wyre Source: NHSCHR 2002/3 2.9 An interesting pattern emerges, showing net migration movements from the core of the conurbation to Oldham and Rochdale and from these to similar suburban/ peripheral areas in Greater Manchester and to more rural locations. The overall net-migration pattern is shown in Figure 3. July

9 Figure 3: Net Migration between Local Authorities (2002/3) Source: NHS Central Health Register Migration Patterns between Wards 2.10 It is possible to consider migration patterns at a more localised level using data from the 2001 census, which charts where people were living on on census day 2001 as against one year previously Migration movements of over 50 persons in 2000/1 between wards in Oldham/ Rochdale and between these and wards in adjacent local authority areas have been plotted in Figure 9. July

10 2.12 The results are useful in beginning to define separate areas in which major migration movements are self-contained (the ODPM manual suggesting a benchmark of around 70% self-containment for true markets). The diagram clearly identifies the following clusters of migration movements: Middleton/ Langley (Middleton West/ Central/ North/ South and Chadderton Central wards); Inner Oldham (Weneth, StPaul s, St Mary s, St James and Coldhurst wards); Saddleworth, East and South Oldham (Saddleworth West, Saddleworth East, Lees and Alexandra wards); Chadderton and South East Oldham (Chadderton North/ Central/ South and Holinwood wards); Royton (Royton North/ South and Crompton wards); Milnrow and Littleborough (Milnrow and Littleborough wards); Newbold and Kirkolt (Newbolt and Balderstone wards); Inner Rochdale (Brimrod and Deeplish, Spotland, Smallbridge and Wardleworth and Central and Fallinge wards) Figure 5 clearly shows that the majority of migration movements are over short distances, with relatively limited interaction between adjacent towns (such as Rochdale, Middleton and Oldham). This is a particular feature of the Oldham/Rochdale housing market, and clearly distinct from patterns of movement in cities such as Manchester and Liverpool Indeed localised migration patterns are a particular feature in Oldham, where 63.2% moves were contained within the local authority area in 2000/1 the highest of any authority in Greater Manchester. In Rochdale 60.8% of moves were contained within the Borough. Figure 4: Migration Movements contained within Local Authority Areas Wholly Moving Households Moved within LA Moved within UK Moved from Outside the UK Bolton % 98% 1.8% Bury % 98% 1.7% Manchester % 96% 4.1% Oldham % 99% 1.2% Rochdale % 99% 1.2% July

11 Salford % 98% 2.2% Stockport % 98% 2.0% Tameside % 99% 1.3% Trafford % 97% 3.1% Wigan % 98% 1.6% Source: Census Further analysis has been undertaken to assess the connection between North/ East Manchester and Failsworth which has produced the following results: There is a small net movement from Failsworth to Moston (14 persons) which is not significant in a single year: the census recording 29 persons moving from Failsworth West to Moston as against 15 persons moving from Moston to Failsworth West; There is a more substantial net movement from Newton Health to Failsworth West (29 persons), the census recording 54 persons moving from Newton Health to Failsworth West, as against 25 persons the other way; 2.16 Overall the evidence suggests that Moston is more strongly connected to some of the Manchester wards surrounding it (particularly in terms of out-migration) than to Failsworth. Migration flows to Moston are relatively small in size: 29 persons from Failsworth West; and 23 persons each from Charleston and Harpurhey. Migration flows from Moston (out-migration) are to Lightbowne (66 persons), Newton Heath (61), Charleston (54), and Chadderton South (49) In-migration to Newton Heath is strongest from Moston (61 persons), Lightbowne (47) and Central (39) wards in Manchester, with 25 persons moving from Failsworth West. Outmigration is from Newton Health to Failsworth West (54 persons), followed by Lightbowne (21) and Beswick & Clayton (21). July

12 Figure 5: Migration Flows of 40+ Persons between Wards (All People) July

13 But what has been the impact of these migratory trends? It is useful to consider which areas within the Pathfinder are gaining and loosing people as a result of migration Figure 6 shows net migration in 2000/1 at a ward level as a percentage of the ward population. The lighter pink and orange colours show areas which experienced net inmigration, including the wards which contain the Failsworth West, Hollinwood 1 and 2 and Hollins, Alt and Holts, Sholver and Derker neighbourhoods in Oldham and the Newbold, South East and parts of the North East neighbourhood. The green colours show the wards which demonstrated net out-migration in 2000/1: the most significant out-migration was recorded in the Inner Oldham (Central, Westwood, Glodwick, Clarksfield, Freehold/Werneth, and Coppice neighbourhoods as well as parts of Hollins and Greenacres) and parts of Inner Rochdale (North East, North West, Wardleworth and Hamer, Central, Deeplish, Sparthbottoms) as well as Balderstone, Heywood North South and East wards While recognising that housing completions and demolitions can influence migration trends recorded for 2000/1, the dichotomy of trends between adjacent areas in both Rochdale and Oldham lends weight to the the idea of separate housing sub-markets within the towns. In Rochdale there is a clear distinction between a Newbold/Balderstone market as separate from the remainder of Inner Rochdale. In Oldham there appears to be a distinct inner urban market separate from that in Lees, Sholver, Royton and Shaw. Figure 6: Characteristics of Migration in 2000/1 Ward All people Migrants Turnover (Migrants/ Population) Moved within the area Out Migrants In Migrants Net Migration (Persons) Migration Balance / Population Alexandra Chadderton Central Chadderton North Chadderton South Coldhurst Crompton Failsworth East Failsworth West Hollinwood Lees Royton North Royton South Saddleworth East Saddleworth West Shaw St. James St. Marys St. Pauls Waterhead Werneth Balderstone July

14 Brimrod and Deeplish Castleton Central and Falinge Healey Heywood North Heywood South Heywood West Littleborough Middleton Central Middleton East Middleton North Middleton South Middleton West Milnrow Newbold Norden and Bamford Smallbridge and Wardleworth Spotland Wardle Source: Census 2001 July

15 Figure 7: Net Migration at a Ward Level July

16 Migration Patterns for Ethnic Minority Groups 2.20 The 2001 Census migration data categorises migration by white and non-white ethnic groups. An analysis has been undertaken of migration trends and flows by ethnic group. Figure 8 presents key migration data by ethnic group for wards in Oldham and Rochdale. Figure 9 (a and b) show flows between wards for non-white ethnic groups A key finding of the analysis is that flows for non-white groups between wards in the year period 2000/1 are really very small. Indeed the analysis revealed that the flow of non-white migrants between any two wards in Oldham/Rochdale/Manchester did not exceed 10 persons. The evidence suggests that Asian housing markets in the two towns are very localised; the majority of moves being very short distance. Further migration trends are largely to/from areas which already have significant ethnic communities. Figure 8: Ethnic Migration in Oldham and Rochdale All people in ethnic groups other than white Migrants in ethnic groups other than white Total number of people in ethnic groups moving into the area from both within and outside the UK and those with no usual address one year ago. People in ethnic groups other than white who moved within the area People with ethnic group other than white who moved out of the area all Total ethnic population loss/gain Ethnic population loss/gain as percentage of total ethnic population Percentage of migrants in ethnic groups who moved within the area Oldham Alexandra Chadderton Central Chadderton North Chadderton South Coldhurst Crompton Failsworth East Failsworth West Hollinwood Lees Royton North Royton South Saddleworth East Saddleworth West Shaw St. James St. Marys St. Pauls Waterhead Werneth Rochdale Balderstone Brimrod and Deeplish Castleton Central and Falinge Healey Heywood North July

17 Heywood South Heywood West Littleborough Middleton Central Middleton East Middleton North Middleton South Milnrow Newbold Norden and Bamford Smallbridge and Wardleworth Spotland Wardle Source: Census 2001 = Areas with a population gain as a percentage of total ethnic population greater than 9% = Areas with a population loss as a percentage of total ethnic population 2.22 The wards with high ethnic populations demonstrate significant percentages of internal ethnic migration. An example in Oldham being Coldhurst which has a BME population which makes up 57% of the total population and records 54.2% of migrants in ethnic groups moving within the area Further, areas which have gained large number of ethnic migrants are the areas which already have significant ethnic communities. Obvious examples in Oldham being Alexandra, Coldhurst, St Pauls and Werneth wards. In Rochdale, corresponding areas are Brimrod and Deeplish, Central and Falinge, and Newbold However there are some signs of Asian households moving away from traditional settlement areas. In Rochdale, the ward of the largest with the largest existing ethnic population, Smallbridge and Wardleworth, recorded a small reduction in its ethnic population. In order to understand further the movement of ethnic groups within the area it is necessary to study the relative population losses and gains of these communities within each ward. Within Figure 12 the wards where this gain is above 9% are highlighted. These wards are clearly showing a significant relative increase of their ethnic population and suggest a migration of the BME population to areas which are not necessarily traditionally regarded as ethnic community areas Oldham has four such wards: Crompton, Hollinwood, Saddleworth East, and Waterhead. Two of these in particular have very small BME populations Crompton 1.86% and Saddleworth East 1.59% - indicating some initial movement from Oldham to other towns in the Borough, while growth in the other two wards suggests a spreading of ethnic population within the town Rochdale has only one ward where the gain is above 9% - Littleborough (15.6% increase). This growth is significant as the area is one with a current small BME population, only 1.46% a figure which includes this migration. July

18 Localised Movement Patterns for Ethnic Minority Groups 2.27 Reference has already been made to the flows illustrated on the maps, Figures 13 and 14. Further examination of these illustrations provides a number of key insights Looking first at Oldham the following observations can be made: High levels of movement can be identified between the wards around the centre of Oldham which have established BME populations; There is very little movement from Rochdale to Oldham with only two flow lines shown, the first between Brimrod and Deeplish and St Marys and the second between Middleton East and Hollinwood. This second flow provides a valuable insight into the ethnic migration out of Middleton East identified in Figure 12; There is movement from a number of Manchester wards (Cheetham and Central) into the central wards of Oldham which have established BME communities. This movement is not reciprocated; There is identifiable migration from this core area around Oldham centre out to neighbouring wards Shaw / Crompton / Royton North / Saddleworth East / Failsworth East presumably reflecting movement of more affluent households; There appears to be no ethnic migration either into, or out of, Saddleworth West. This area still appears to be largely avoided by the BME community, further reinforced by the low ethnic population shown in Figure 12 (191 constituting only 1.7% of the wards population); A lack of ethnic migration into both Chadderton North and Failsworth West in shown A number of observations can also be made for Rochdale: There appears to be a some flows from Oldham to Rochdale. Flows originate in Oldham from the wards of, St Pauls, Chadderton North and St Marys and are generally going to the wards of Rochdale which already have large ethnic communities (Smallbridge and Wardleworth, Brimrod and Deeplish); A contained ethnic migration area can be identified around the inner Rochdale area where large BME communities already exist indicating a largely contained market; As with Oldham there are identifiable flows out of the wards associated with ethnic communities to a number of neighbouring wards Heywood North, Littleborough, Wardle; July

19 Significantly though there are still a number of flows from peripheral areas into the Rochdale core, origin wards being Middleton West and Heywood West; It appears that does appear to be some ethnic migration from the inner Rochdale core out to neighbouring and peripheral wards to the to the north, east and west. However, this migration does not go to the south instead migration seems to come from the south to the centre; A number of wards within Rochdale appear to have no ethnic migration flows into them: Milnrow, Heywood South, Middleton West and Heywood West. It is possible that these wards have perceived barriers to ethnic communities. July

20 Figure 9a: Migration Flows of 40+ Persons from Non-White Ethnic Groups (Oldham/Manchester) July

21 Figure 9b: Migration Flows of 40+ Persons from Non-White Ethnic Groups (Rochdale) July

22 Travel to Work Patterns 2.30 Travel to work patterns have been assessed using data from the 2001 census. A zoning pattern was develop building upon existing knowledge of travel patterns, in which: Each of the 40 wards in Rochdale and Oldham was represented by a separate zone; Each of the remaining Greater Manchester local authority areas was classified as a separate zone; and Calderlee/Kirklees and Rossendale was also defined as one zone due to a significant number of Journey to Work trips thought to be destined for this area The remaining areas of the UK were aggregated into four zones - northwest, northeast, southwest and southeast. Figure 10 present the zoning system The travel to work analysis undertaken assessed trip numbers and the densities of origin and destination of journey to work trips, segmented into public transport and multiple person vehicle (MPV) modes of transport. Densities were calculated by dividing the number of trips originating or destined for a particular zone by the area of that zone (in km 2 ). Finally origindestination matrices were produced. One matrix referred to the total number of trips made, with one matrix each for the number of trips made by motorised private vehicle (MPV), public transport. Figure 10: Zoning System Origin Destination Totals July

23 2.33 Figures 11 and 12 present the number of trips generated by motorised private vehicle (MPV) and public transport (PT). In total the districts of Oldham and Rochdale generated a combined total of 181, 453 trips. 67% of these trips were made by MPV, 14% by PT and 11%, the remaining were made by other The total number of trips generated by the two districts are relatively evenly split with Rochdale generating 52% (93, 534 trips) of the total trip number and Oldham generating 48% (87, 919 trips) The 2001 Census indicated that 121, 885 MPV journey to work trips were generated in Rochdale and Oldham. The split between the two towns was relatively even with Oldham generating 51% and Rochdale 49%. The difference between Rochdale and Oldham in terms of the number of PT trips generated was slightly more significant with Oldham generating 54% of trips and Rochdale 46%. This is indicative of perhaps greater PT provision in Oldham or/and increased accessibility. 20,528 WC trips were generated in total, again the split between Oldham and Rochdale was narrow with the two districts generating 52% and 58% of WC trips respectively According to the 2001 Census the districts of Rochdale and Oldham attracted a combined total of 127, 671 journey to work trips. The results indicate that: In terms of journey to work trips this represents a combined net loss of 53,782 trips when compared with the number of trips generated by Rochdale and Oldham; 53% of total trips were destined for a location within an Oldham ward and 47% within Rochdale; and 61% of trips attracted to the core study area were made by MPV, 12% by PT and 15% by WC with the remaining being other % of MPV trips were destined for Oldham with 48% for Rochdale. Again Oldham has a higher proportion of journey to work trips being made by public transport with 57% of PT trips destined for the core study area going to Oldham and 43% to Rochdale. Just under 19,500 WC trips were destined for the core study area which is, as expected, a similar number to those generated in the core study area. 53% of these trips were destined for Oldham and 47% for Rochdale. Origin Destination Densities Motorised Private Vehicles 2.36 Figure 11 presents origin density by MPV. It shows there are at least four wards with MPV origin trip densities over 1000/sq.km. These wards are Failsworth West, Middleton East, July

24 Waterhead and Spotland and it is these wards which generate the most number of trips per km 2. Therefore, all other things being equal, it is in these wards that one would expect to see the highest level of congestion It is apparent that the wards of Oldham have a higher density of MPV trip origins. This is perhaps indicative of density, level of car ownership etc. July

25 Figure 11: Origin Densities by Private Motorised Vehicle July

26 Figure 12: Destination Densities by Private Motorised Vehicle July

27 2.38 Figure 12 presents destination density by MPV. It shows that there are more wards in Oldham with a higher trip destination density than Rochdale. This is likely to be indicative of the concentration of employment generators and possibly a reflection of the nature of business of these employment generators. It should be noted however that while those zones external to the core study have low MPV densities this may be a reflection of their larger area rather than the number of trips destined for them It is also apparent that Rochdale and Oldham are linked by a corridor of wards with relatively high density employment. This corridor runs on the same alignment as the M627 and may be a reflection of the level of access afforded by the motorway. Public Transport 2.40 Figure 13 presents origin density by PT. It shows that wards which display a high density of public transport trips are grouped together. These wards are, for the majority, coincidental with the provision of rail infrastructure. When Figure 13 is considered, along with the data contained in Figure A2, there is a strong indication that PT provision in Oldham is superior to that in Rochdale Figure 14 presents destination density by PT. Figure 14 is similar in appearance to Figure 12. This indicates that wards which exhibit signs of relatively high employment opportunities can be accessed by public transport although the majority of people do use their car. Whilst Manchester does not display a high density of PT trip destinations this is more a reflection of the size of the zone as opposed to the number of trips which are destined for it, which is high. July

28 Figure 13: Origin Densities for Public Transport Trips July

29 Figure 14: Destination Densities for Public Transport Trips July

30 Origin-Destination Patterns 2.42 Four origin-destination matrices were constructed for the zoning system. Total Trips 2.43 Of the total number of trips generated in Rochdale/Oldham 127, 671 (70%) were destined for a location within Rochdale or Oldham. It is also apparent that the degree to which residents of Rochdale work in Oldham and vice-versa is slight with the employee catchment areas of high employment generating wards in Rochdale and Oldham being constrained to the town in which they are located. In Oldham these wards are Chadderton Central, Coldhurst, St Marys and St Pauls, whilst in Rochdale they are Castleton and Cental & Falinge There are anomalies to this however with there being a significant cross flow (1000+) from Calderdale/Kirlees/Rossendale into Rochdale and vice versa. The ward of Chadderton Central in Oldham also attracts a significant number of workers from zones outside the core study area In terms of trips from either Rochdale or Oldham to destinations outside the core study area the zone of most significance is Manchester, attracting 21, 875 trips in total. This equates to 12% of all trips generated in Oldham/Rochdale and 41% of all trips originating in Rochdale/Oldham destined for a location external to the core study area. 55% of trips to Manchester are generated by Oldham while 45% are generated by Rochdale Tameside and Salford also attract a significant number of trips from Oldham while Bury and Salford attract a significant number from Rochdale. Trips by Motorised Private Vehicle 2.47 As would be expected the matrix showing origin-destination patterns by MPV differs only very slightly from the matrix showing total origin destination patterns. This is of course because trips by MPV account for the majority of total trips made As would also be expected those trips which begin and end in the same zone are less likely to be made by car. However the likelihood of this decreases with the increasingly rural nature of the ward and its area, Saddleworth East for example As previously mentioned there is a significant commuter flow to Manchester. MPV trips account for 61% of this flow which is 6% less than the average for the core study area indicating the use of other modes to access Manchester. Public Transport Trips July

31 2.50 Ultimately, in real terms, PT flows are low in comparison to MPV flows and are for the most part indicative of bus use. However, the gap between public transport and MPV use is narrowed in certain origin-destination pairings, namely from the core study area to Central & Fallinge in Rochdale and the core study area to Manchester. The reason for significant levels of public transport use on these routes is most likely due to these routes being served by a rail service. Key conclusions comprise: Public transport accounts for 27% of all trips made to Manchester from the core study area. However this is in contrast to the proportion of trips made from Manchester to the core study area by public transport which is 16%. Public transport trips account for 17% of all trips made to Central & Falinge in comparison to the core study average of 14%, whilst trips made in the other direction do not exhibit particularly significant PT flows. Walking/ Cycling Trips 1.27 As would be expected the destinations of walk/cycle trips are local to their origin. The main exception to this is those journey to work trips destined for Central Fallinge which attract a relatively high number (100+) from Brimrod & Deeplish, Healey, Newbold, Smallbridge & Wardleworth and Spotland. Conclusion of the Travel to Work Analysis 2.51 In total Oldham/Rochdale (the boroughs) generate 181,453 travel to work trips but attract just 127,671 trips. There is therefore a net movement of people out of the Borough s to work, 53,782 people (29.6%) more travelling out to work than travel into the area However there remains a degree of self-containment - 70% of trips generated in Oldham and Rochdale area being destined for a location within the Boroughs. There is also clearly a degree of inter-relation between the Boroughs considered individually 64% of trips generated in Oldham were for an Oldham ward, and 7% for Rochdale, while for trips generated in Rochdale 62% were for a Rochdale ward and 9% for one in Oldham The higher proportion of trips destined for an Oldham ward is testament to its greater importance as an employment location more people travel into Oldham to work than Rochdale The principal destination for travel to work trips outside the two Boroughs is Manchester which attracts 12% of total trips generated in Rochdale/Oldham. There are also significant links between Salford & Tameside and Oldham and between Salford & Bury and Rochdale. Comparing wage differentials for different occupational groups it is clear that an incentive to travel to larger employment centres such as Manchester only exists for higher-earning July

32 occuations, and reduces dramatically when considering earning differentials for the less qualified [Figures 46 (a) & 46 (b)]. The implication is that those travelling are principally higher-income earners In terms of trips by public transport the majority (65%) do not leave the core study area. Of those that are destined for a location external to the core study area Manchester attracts the most, attracting 24% of all trips made by public transport. Public transport is therefore clearly important in aiding accessibility to Manchester, with 27% public transport trips destined for Manchester as against 12% of overall trips. Summary: Defining Housing Markets 2.56 In defining the housing market area and constituent sub-markets therin a variety of evidence has been used including the evidence presented on migration and travel to work patterns, along with information on house prices and local knowledge from stakeholders involved in the process The evidence suggests that Oldham and Rochdale Boroughs do indeed form a coherent housing market area, but one which exhibits some connection with parts of Manchester. The analysis particular indicates the following: A degree of separation in migration terms between the towns of Oldham and Rochdale (which sit either side of the M62) but also evidence of cross-commuting between the two Boroughs; A difference in terms of both house prices and net migration between the housing markets in the cores of Oldham and Rochdale the HMR markets and more peripheral and rural parts of the two Boroughs; Connections with Manchester critically in terms of travel to work but also in migration terms between Failsworth and Newton Heath (which both sit along the Oldham Road corridor) Looking to a more localised level, it has been possible to identify nine sub-market areas within the two Boroughs using the same evidence base: Inner urban markets in the two towns Inner Oldham and Inner Rochdale; A Middleton market which includes the overspill council estates such as Langley; Higher prices markets in some of the more desirable, rural parts of the Boroughs Wardle and Healey; Littleborough/ Milnrow; Saddleworth/ Lees; July

33 Markets in some of the other towns in the Boroughs with mid-range prices, but with limited migratory connection with the inner urban markets Royton, Crompton and Shaw; Heywood; and A market in Failsworth which extends across the borough boundary into Newton Heath The defined housing market area and constituent sub-markets set the geographical context for the and importantly establish a scale of impact for policy intervention the implication being that intervention in a specific locality will impact upon other parts of the identified sub-market. This has important implications for establishing a sustainable market renewal strategy Further, discussions with estate agents and the migration analysis undertaken suggest that the housing sub-markets are somewhat more insular than might be exepcted: demand appears to be predominantly locally-generated. July

34 Figure 15: Housing Sub-Markets in Oldham and Rochdale July

35 3 Demographic Change Population Structure 3.1 There were 183,143 persons living in the HMR area in Oldham/ Rochdale in 2001 (2001 Census 4 ) which represented a small reduction (- 0.2%) over the preceding decade: the previous Census recording 183, 548 persons. This compares favourably with a population decline of 5.5% across all of the HMR Pathfinder areas; indeed Oldham/Rochdale has the most stable population size of any of the Pathfinders. 3.2 Figures 16 and 17 compare the population structure in the Pathfinder areas with the subregional and national profiles. They demonstrate a very youthful population structure, with a high proportion of persons in the and particularly the 0-15 cohort, and this is particularly the case in the ethnic minority communities. Figure 16: Population Structure Oldham/Rochdale Pathfinder Greater Manchester England and Wales , % 21.24% 20.16% , % 11.53% 10.91% , % 29.18% 29.15% , % 23.16% 23.82% , % 7.91% 8.39% 75 and over 11, % 6.98% 7.59% Source: Census 2001 Figure 17: Population Structure: Deviation from Sub-Regional/ National Profiles 75 and over % -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% Oldham Rochdale Greater Manchester Source: Census Census Key Statistics for Output Areas/ ODPM (2004) Home Ownership Solutions for Low Demand Areas July

36 3.3 Figure 18 plots the mean age of population at a ward level: a strong correlation exists between the mean age of population and the proportion of the population of Asian origin. Overall the population structure of the Asian community is considerably younger than that of the white community, and it is within this young Asian community that much of the Borough s projected population growth is expected to occur. 3.4 The population is youngest in Coldhurst and Werneth wards in Oldham with Alexandra, St Mary s, St James and Hollinwood wards also having an average age significantly below the Greater Manchester average. These wards cover much of the HMR area in Oldham and we would therefore expect these areas to generate positive natural increase. In Rochdale Smallbridge and Wardleworth ward has the youngest population structure, with Newbold ward also having a noticeably young population and it is therefore these areas we would expect to experience net natural increase in the future. July

37 Figure 18: Mean Age of Population July

38 Ethnicity 3.5 The Pathfinder area contains a sizeable concentration of ethnic minority households, with 26% residents from a non-white ethnic group against 13.9% and 11.4% for the Boroughs of Oldham and Rochdale respectively, and 8.9% across Greater Manchester (2001 Census). In the Pathfinder areas 15% residents are Pakistani and 7% are Bangladeshi. Indeed in terms of total size the two towns contain the third largest Bangladeshi community outside of London. 3.6 Across the two boroughs the ethnic minority population in spatially concentrated, with the highest concentrations in Coldhurst, St Mary s and Werneth wards in Oldham and Brimrod and Deeplish, Central and Fallinge and Smallbridge and Wardleworth in Rochdale (Figure 19). 3.7 There is a sizeable Pakistani community in the wards of Alexandra, St Mary s, St Pauls and Werneth in Oldham, and Brimrod and Deeplish, Central and Fallinge and Smallbridge and Wardleworth in Rochdale. There is a large Bangladeshi community in Coldhurst ward in Oldham, with smaller proportions of Bangladeshi residents in Alexandra, St Mary s wards and Werneth wards. The largest Indian community is in St Paul s ward in Oldham. 3.8 At a neighbourhood level, Asian households are particularly concentrated in Glodwick, Coppice, Westwood and Central Oldham in Inner Oldham, as well as Deeplish, and Wardleworth and Hammer in Inner Rochdale. Figure 19: Ethnic Composition of Wards with More Than 5% Non-white Population All people White Mixed Indian Pakistani Banglades hi Other Asian Black Chinese or Other Alexandra 11, Chadderton North 10, Coldhurst 11, Hollinwood 9, Lees 10, Shaw 10, St. Marys 10, St. Pauls 10, Waterhead 12, Werneth 11, Brimrod and 8, Deeplish Castleton 9, Central and Falinge 9, Healey 13, Newbold 11, Smallbridge and 13, Wardleworth Spotland 8, Oldham 217, Rochdale 205, Greater Manchester 2482, July

39 North West 6,729, Source: Census Figure 20 shows concentrations of ethnic minority residents at a localised level in 1991 and Comparing the distribution of BME population in 1991 and 2001 provides a number of insights into spatial dynamics of its population growth In 1991 Asian communities in Oldham and Rochdale (Figure 20) were strongly spatially concentrated in just a handful of areas: In Oldham in the Coppice, Glodwick and Westwood neighbourhoods; while in Rochdale in the Deeplish, Wardleworth & Hamer and Sparth neighbourhoods. Between 1991 and 2001 there was a consolidation of these communities, with a growth of the Asian population in these areas, and out-migration of the white population. The communities also began to expand laterally as they grew. This resulted in increasing Asian population in settlement areas (which already has a sizeable Asian population) and particularly in adjacent areas, which has a lower concentration in In terms of neighbourhoods there was a marked growth in the Asian population in Central Oldham, Clarksfield, Freehold, Hathershaw and Hollins. In Rochdale growth was focused in Newbold, North East Rochdale, and Spotland and Fallinge If this trend was to continue we would expect increasing growth of the Asian community in the cores of the two towns through consolidation and coalescence of communities, along with outward expansion (particularly in the directions in which BME growth has been strongest) There is also evidence of initial dispersal/ suburbanisation of Asian households away from the core settlement areas. A particularly strong concentration has developed in Shaw and in South West Rochdale/Castleton, with additional growth in Chadderton, Lees, Failsworth and Balderstone/Newbold. Manchester University (2004) suggests that much of this is likely driven by those who can afford a choice of accommodation the more affluent Asian households. However there has been very limited dispersal into the more rural areas to the east of the towns. July

40 Figure 20: Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) Population 1991/ 2001 July

41 Existing Population Projections 3.13 Manchester University has been commissioned to produce population projections for both Boroughs and to develop an understanding of the demographics within the HMR areas. Until this research is published in full, we must rely on previous population projects undertaken by Oldham MBC in 1997 and Bradford MBC policy unit for Rochdale in Across Oldham/ Rochdale the demographics of the South Asian population are particularly important in influencing the population size and household characteristics. The population of South Asian origin is increasing in terms of both its size and proportion of the total population in both Boroughs. Between it grew by 57% in Oldham and 48% in Rochdale. This population of South Asian origin is predicted to further increase: to reach 17.7% of Oldham Borough s population in 2021 (vs. 11.6% in 2001); to reach 15.5% of Rochdale Borough s population in 2021 (vs. 9.3% in 2001) Therefore over the period it is anticipated that both boroughs will experience a similar level of growth in the South Asian population (6%), the population of South Asian origin growing by 39,000 persons in Oldham and 33,100 persons in Rochdale (totalling 72,100 persons). It is therefore likely that demand for housing in the HMR areas in both Boroughs will be sustained by the growth in the ethnic minority population. This is an important point when considering the primary need to plan for the existing population. This is developed further in subsequent sections of this report In contrast, the white population in both boroughs is projected to fall marginally. Between the white population fell by 7% in Oldham and by 2.4% in Rochdale, driven by net outmigration. The projection is that this will the white population will continue to fall in most age groups, although there will be increases in those aged 10-14, 35-39, and In terms of age structure Oldham s population projections (1997-base) indicate a trend of: A small decrease of around 800 (2%) in the number of children of compulsory school age (5-15); An increase of just over 1,600 (7%) in the number of young adults aged 16-24, with the proportion of these from ethnic minority groups increasing from 19% to 24%; An increase in the number of people of working age (1,100 persons; 0.8%) of which the proportion from ethnic minority groups will increase from 9% to 17%; 5 Source: Pathfinder Prospectus July

42 An increase of almost 1,500 (4%) in the number of people of personable age The implication is that the significant increase in young adults is a potential generator of demand for first time homeowners, maintaining stability at the lower end of the housing market, while the increase in pensioner households may create demand for sheltered and adapted housing To assess the spatial implications of population growth below the borough level, figure 21 shows wards which are likely to generate positive natural increase, based upon the relationship of births to deaths in Figure 21: Births/Deaths Ward Live Births Deaths Natural Change Coldhurst Smallbridge and Wardleworth St. Marys Werneth Newbold St. Pauls Central and Falinge Balderstone Hollinwood Healey St. James Waterhead Alexandra Milnrow Lees Source: ONS (Sourced from PCT) 3.20 In Oldham demand for housing is likely to be generated from expanding BME households in the traditional settlement areas in Coldhurst (Westwood neighbourhood), in St Mary s (Glodwick and surrounding neighbourhoods), and in Werneth/St Paul s (Coppice and Freehold neighbourhoods). This growth is expected to continue for two decades (Manchester University 2004). Evidence of Recent Population Change 3.21 This section considers recent population change both in Oldham and Rochdale, in adjacent local authority areas and begins to look in more detail at the components of population change Figure 22 plots population change from a common 1991 base for Oldham, Rochdale, the two boroughs combined and for Greater Manchester, based on Census mid-year estimates. It demonstrates a loss of population from Oldham MBC since 1993 at a rate of just under Note: This uses different wards to the maps, the later based on new 2004 wards in Oldham July

43 persons per annum, while in Rochdale, although the Borough lost people between 1993 and 1997, it gained population between and has since had a largely static population. Figure 22: Population Change in Oldham and Rochdale 2% 1% 1% 0% % -1% -2% -2% Oldham MBC Rochdale MBC Oldham & Rochdale Greater Manchester Source: Census Mid-Year Estimates 3.23 Figure 23 shows population change in absolute terms in the two boroughs. Figure 23: Population Change in Oldham and Rochdale Oldham MBC Rochdale MBC Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates July

44 3.24 What though is perhaps particularly marked is the reversal of population decline in Greater Manchester as a whole since 1999, with a net growth in population in the sub-region recorded in both 2002 and Figure 24 shows population change in each of the local authorities in Greater Manchester. Figure 24: Population Change in Greater Manchester Local Authorities 4% 2% 0% % -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Source: ONS Mid Year Estimates 3.25 There has clearly been a reversal of population trends in Manchester since 1999, with a levelling off of population then a dramatic population growth in 2002 such that by 2003, Manchester s population equalled that in In Tameside, Trafford, Wigan and Salford longterm more marginal population loss has also ceased with these authorities gaining population since However this growth has not been from other areas within Greater Manchester, the sub-region s population growing as a whole Drilling down to look at Oldham and Rochdale individually, it is possible to consider how the different components of population change (birth rate, death rate and migration) have influenced these trends. Figure 25 shows the relationship between births and deaths in Oldham. It shows that over the twelve year period, the birth rate has been higher than the death rate in Oldham and therefore the Borough has experienced net natural increase in population. However both the birth and death rates are falling, but based on current trends the birth rate is falling marginally less fast than the death rate indicating a marginally increasing natural population growth. July

45 3.27 In Rochdale (Fig. 26), as in Oldham, the birth rate has consistently exceeded the death rate over the twelve year period ( ) and therefore there has been a natural increase in population. However in Rochdale, the birth rate and the death rate are converging and hence natural population growth in falling. Figure 25: Natural Population Change in Oldham MBC Change (thousands) Live births Deaths Natural change Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates Figure 26: Natural Population Change in Rochdale MBC Change (thousands) Live births Deaths Natural change July

46 Source: Census Mid Year Population Estimates 3.28 As well as natural increase, population change is influenced by migration trends. Figures 27 and 28 record natural increase and population change in Oldham MBC and Rochdale MBC respectively. Figure 27: Oldham MBC Components of Population Change Change (thousands) Natural change Net migration Total change Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates 3.29 Figure 27 demonstrates that net population change in much more dependent on migration, which is more variable than natural change population losses reflecting higher levels on net out-migration. From a position of population gain in , Oldham has since lost people in the order of 300 persons per year, with the exceptions of (marginal growth) and (400 persons growth). In there was a reduction in the level of population loss compared to the previous year. July

47 3.30 Figure 28 shows a corresponding graph of population change for Rochdale. As in Oldham, it shows that migration trends are driving population change. Overall the Borough experienced net out-migration in , but between positive natural change coupled with low out-migration (and significant in-migration in ) produced overall population growth. However in the Borough lost 600 people, contributing to a marginal net reduction in population. Net out-migration continued in albeit at a lower rate, but balanced against natural population growth there was a net increase in Rochdale s population. Figure 28: Rochdale MBC Components of Population Change Natural change Net migration Total change Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates 3.31 There is still evidence of international migration contributing to population change into Oldham and Rochdale. Figure 29 plots international migration into wards in Oldham and Rochdale in the year 2000/1, as recorded by the census. It shows that international migration is most significant into Central and Fallinge (Rochdale) and Werneth (Oldham) where it is in the region of 100 persons in the single year. In the wards of Brimrod and Deeplish, Smallbridge and Wardleworth and Newbold (Rochdale) and St Mary s and Coldhurst (Oldham) over 40 people moved into the area from outside the UK in 2000/1. July

48 Figure 29: International Migration 120 Persons moved to area from outside UK 2000/ Failsworth West Heywood North Heywood South Royton South Littleborough Spotland Waterhead Lees Shaw St. Pauls Wardle Saddleworth East Norden and Bamford Alexandra Hollinwood Newbold Coldhurst St. Marys Smallbridge and Wardleworth Brimrod and Deeplish Central and Falinge Werneth Source: Census Assessing the information available, the challenge perhaps for Rochdale is to sustain this lower level of net out-migration and over time to move to a situation of net in-migration. Given the trends emerging in the last few years of a stabilisation and growth of population in the inner core of the conurbation in Manchester (and with a stabilisation of population loss in Salford) this seems to be a conceivable objective In contrast in Oldham, the challenge is to replicate what has begun to occur in Rochdale to reduce out-migration so that net out-migration is more marginal and ultimately to a position of migration balance. The recent trends across Greater Manchester provide some hope that this is a realistic objective. Projecting Recent Population Trends 3.34 The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently published a series of population projections utilising the mid-year estimate (MYE) information. These are the 2003 Sub- National Population Projections published by ONS on 25 th November They project forward the mid-2003 population estimates to give an indication of trends based on observed levels of births, deaths and migration over the previous five years ( ). They show what the population will be if recent trends continue and do not take into account future policy changes; economic change; or the impact of a changing (ageing) demographic structure. July

49 Figure 30: ONS 2003-Based Sub-National Population Projections (thousands) AREA NAME DATA TYPE Oldham Population Oldham Natural Change Oldham All Migration net Rochdale Population Rochdale Natural Change Rochdale All Migration net Source: ONS Figure 31 plots population growth to The projections indicate that Oldham s population will grow to 1.4% to 2019 (a growth of 3,100 persons). Rochdale will experience much more substantial growth, the population growing by 4.3% to 2019 (a growth of 8,900 persons). Figure 31: Projected Population Population ('000s) Oldham Rochdale Source: ONS The projections assume a slight rise in natural increase in Oldham from current levels of around 700 persons per annum, along with a slight fall in out-migration from around 800 persons per annum at present, resulting in population growth beyond In Rochdale stronger overall growth reflects a broad migration balance coupled with natural increase of around persons per annum. Household Growth Current Trends 3.37 Household growth is likely to be result mainly from population growth, with some growth relating to declining average household size. July

50 3.38 The Census recorded 72,593 households resident in the Oldham/ Rochdale Pathfinder area in 2001 a very similar level to the 72,424 recorded in 1991 (a 0.2% increase equivalent to an increase of 169 households). Average household size in the Oldham/Rochdale Pathfinder, at 2.52 persons/ household in 2001, is noticeably higher than the regional (2.39) and national (2.40) levels As both the number of persons resident and households have remained broadly consistent between 1991 and 2001, average household size has not changed significantly. Average household size fell by just 0.1 persons/household (from 2.53 in 1991 to 2.52 in 2001) in the Pathfinder area as against a regional decline of 0.15 persons/ household. Work by Manchester University (2004) has shown that: Average household size of Asian households is notably higher than average, with 3 adults and 1-2 children per household; Between average household size has grown in Asian settlement areas from 3.2 to 3.5; has remained consistent in Asian growth areas at 2.4 persons, but has fallen from 2.4 to 2.3 persons in other areas; and The slight fall in household size reflects a lower number of children in households (presumably as the population structure ages this should continue) Manchester University (2004) have shown that in 2001 the average Asian household in Oldham and Rochdale contains three adults and one or more children Thw trends suggests a continued (although not necessarily increasing) demand for larger housing units, particularly from South Asian households. However we would expect average household size in the white ethnic group to be falling, in line with national trends for later marriage and childbearing, falling birth rates, increasing divorce and more people living alone. This should generate demand for smaller units. Existing Household Projections 3.42 For both Boroughs the projection is that the number of households will continue to increase, generating demand for (additional) new-build housing in both Boroughs. Figure 32a: Existing Council Household Projections Oldham 85,210 87,821 91, Rochdale 80,912 84,431 86,874 88,832 90,695 92,387 93,655 % Growth (Decade) 5.2% 4.3% 3.7% Source: OMBC/ RMBC July

51 Figure 32b: ODPM Household Projections Oldham Rochdale % Growth (Decade) 5.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.43 Council projections show an overall increase across the two Boroughs of 14,295 households over the period 2001/21 an increase of 7,514 households (8.6%) in Rochdale and 6,781 households (7.8%) in Oldham. In Oldham most of this increase in households is projected to take place after 2006 with the majority in respect of households of Asian origin ODPM projections show stronger growth in Rochdale, with a projected increase of 7,810 households (9.0%) between 2001/21 as against 6,525 (7.4%) in Oldham. Given evidence of current population dynamics the ODPM projections appear more accurate Based on these projections we might therefore expect over the period 2001/21: A net growth of households per annum in Oldham; A net growth of households per annum in Rochdale. Manchester University s Projections 3.46 Manchester University has been commissioned by Oldham/Rochdale Partners in Action to produce population and household forecasts for the two boroughs. The population forecast adds an ethnic dimension to the population projections released by the Office for National Statistics in December 2004, using information on migration and fertility from the 2001 census. It is consistent with this in terms of overall population growth. Household growth is then projected by applying forecasts of changes in household size prepared by the two council s in the 1990s to the recent ONS 2003-based Sub-National Population Projections In Rochdale the Manchester University projections show a higher rate of household growth than the ODPM and Council projections between 2001/11 and 2011/21, with similar levels of growth in the two decades. It suggests that the number of households in Rochdale will be 2,600 higher in 2021 than projected by the Council and that household growth will be of the order of per annum (2001/21) In Oldham, Manchester University suggest similar levels of household growth to the Council s projections between 2001/11, but a significantly increased level of household growth (6.8%) between 2011/21 while the other projections suggest a similar level of growth to the previous decade ( %). Manchester University therefore project 3,600 more households in July

52 Oldham in 2021 compared to the council s projections and 4,600 more than the dated ODPM projections Overall Manchester University project higher levels of household growth in Rochdale than Oldham to 2011 (6.5% growth as against 4.1% between 2001/11) but similar levels of growth in the following decade (6.6% Rochdale; 6.8% Oldham). Summary 3.50 Both Oldham and Rochdale are in the fortunate position of having a projected population growth borough-wide to 2019, although this is much more significant in Rochdale (4.3%) than in Oldham (1.4%). Growth reflects a projection that natural increase (particularly within the youthful Asian communities within the two boroughs) will exceed net out migration from the boroughs over the next 15 years. Net out-migration has been substantial in Oldham, to the tune of 800 persons per annum over the last five years, and the borough is projected to continue to loose people in the short-term Critically though the migration balance will be the key determinant in whether population growth does indeed occur, and this is where the policy response should be focused. A number of considerations needs to be taken into account: the importance of securing a positive economic future, recongising that economic opportunity is a key driver of migration trends; the need to deliver a greater choice of housing in attractive, safe and cohesive neighbourhoods to ensure that households are not moving out of HMR areas because their needs cannot be satisfied therein; and that it is the balance of growth in the Asian communities and out-migration of (predominantly) white households that will affect overall housing demand Given a range of evidence 8 suggesting the need to plan primarily for the existing population, addressing these issues will be of critical importance to the programme In housing market terms there is also a need to recognise the housing requirements arising from the differential demographic profile of Asian households, with an average four to five persons per household. This is an average and there are likely a number of households larger than this. This creates a demand for larger housing units within Inner Oldham and Inner Rochdale, which is currently not being adequately met by the current stock profile, bourne out in evidence of overcrowding and latent demand for larger housing units. 8 Combining demographic evidence with findings from the economic review, analysis of migration trends and discussions with estate agents and developers. July

53 July

54 4 Economic Perspectives Housing Markets in a Macroeconomic Context 4.1 Sub-regional housing markets are clearly sensitive to both national and local economic conditions and performance. The economy is the predominant external factor. Indeed, the fortunes of the housing market and the economy and have long been intertwined. The Chancellor of the Exchequer recently argued that most stop-go problems that Britain has suffered in the last 50 years have been led or influenced by the housing market (Economist, 7th Oct 2004). 4.2 In this context, it is now generally accepted that house prices have risen well above sustainable levels, as determined by household incomes, in which nationally, the ratio of house prices to earnings is some 55% above its average level of the past 20 years. Ratios for Oldhama and Rochdale are shown below. Figure 33: Ratio of House Price to Earnings Price (Q4 2004) Weekly Earnings (2004) Annual Earnings Ratio Oldham Rochdale NW E&W Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (2004); Land Registry (Q4 2004) 4.3 Nevertheless the evidence continues to mount that the UK housing market is adjusting as house price growth continues to slow, in the face of gradual increases in the interest rate by the Bank of England. According to the Nationwide Building Society, in the first half of 2004, house prices increased by over 1.5% per month, but in August and September, house price growth was just 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. 4.4 But will the housing market crash? And will the housing market crash prompt another early 1990s economic crash? As to the latter question, the evidence suggests not as we live in different times. Capital Economics predicts a fall of 20% over the next two years but crucially, their forecast will not jolt the economy into recession but instead it is forecasted that the economy will experience only a modest slowdown in growth. This is further reinforced by Figure 34 which provides the near term consensus forecasts for the UK, USA and the EU. Figure 34: Near Term Consensus Forecasts for the UK, USA and the EU GDP Forecast Latest UK 3.70% 3.40% 2.70% USA 4.70% 4.30% 3.40% EU 2.00% 1.80% 2.00% July

55 Source: Economist Sept Whilst the US may post stronger growth than the UK, both areas are expected to grow above the average forecast for the EU. Put simply, if there are no economic shocks, then the UK should expect strong growth but at a slightly decreasing rate, this should still be well above its long-term average growth rate of 2.5%. Forecasts for the North West indicate strong growth for the same period oscillating around the UK average. However, the consensus forecast for the UK indicates that the economy may well have peaked in Therefore, if the recent slowdown in the housing market is not going to precipitate another early 1990s economic crash, the economy may escape the worst. However a fall in house prices might actually impact upon owner-occupiers. This is due to the fact that huge personal indebtedness has been closely associated with the feel good period in the UK as even as late as the second quarter of 2004, mortgage-equity withdrawal is running at 7.5% of households post-tax income, which is at the same peak level as in the late 1980s. Combined with an ageing population, a pensions crisis and an illusionary wealth effect, in which households are not saving due to inflated property wealth, then the situation, if not altogether inevitable, will have a significant impact upon household consumption and hence the housing market. Economic and Housing Market Trends 4.7 Sub-regional housing markets are clearly sensitive to both national and local economic conditions and peformance. Indeed the ODPM Manual identifies that the economy is the predominant external factor influencing the housing market, having implications for both supply and demand, shaping the choice that households make, and options open to them (2004, 40). 4.8 At the local level, economic performance is a key driver of both population change, through migration, and of local incomes both of which have clear implications for housing demand. Slow economic growth is indeed a characteristic of low demand areas which are experiencing population loss and have high proportions of low income households. 4.9 A strategy for housing market renewal must recongise the importance of addressing housing markets and economic development in tandem renewing a relationship which has become somewhat decoupled at the level of both policy and practice (ODPM 2004, 40). July

56 Mapping the Sub Regional Economic Context Labour Market Economic Activity 4.10 The resident working age population in Oldham (Figure 33) is estimated to be 131,000 of which 103,000 are thought to be economically active; this gives an economic activity rate of 78.6% which is higher than the activity rate of the regional and national averages (75.6% for the North West and 78.3% for the UK). Approximately 7,000 economically active people are currently unemployed, giving an unemployment rate of 6.4%, which is actually higher than the prevailing rate for the North West and for England The resident working age population in Rochdale (Figure 35) is estimated to be 124,000 of which 91,000 are thought to be economically active; this gives an economic activity rate of 73.7% which is actually lower than the activity rate of the regional and national averages. Approximately 6,000 economically active people are currently unemployed, giving an unemployment rate of 6.2%, which again is higher than the prevailing rate for the North West and for England. Figure 35: Key Statistics for Oldham - Rochdale Working Age Population Economically Active Economic Activity Rate Unemployed Unemployme nt Rate (%) Economically Inactive Economic Inactive Rate (%) Oldham 131, , , , Rochdale 124,000 91, , , GM 1,527,000 1,156, , , North West 4,077,000 3,083, , , England and Wales 31,898,000 24,958, ,270, ,953, Source: Local Area Labour Force Survey (March 2002 Feb 2003) 4.12 Within Oldham and Rochdale there is variation in the unemployment rate across the wards. Both areas have their extremes. Figure 36 illustrates those wards in which economic activity is particularly high and conversely, those wards in which economic inactivity is more pronounced In Oldham, the wards of Coldhurst, St. Marys and Werneth have the highest numbers of unemployed (14.4%, 11.4% and 12.8% respectively) while in Rochdale, the wards of Middleton West and Smallbridge and Wardleworth have the highest numbers of unemployed (10% and 10.8%). These wards are selected as being statistically significant as their unemployment count is at or greater than the regional average. July

57 Figure 36: Economically Active ALL PEOPLE Economically active Economically active Employee Unemployed Oldham Alexandra Chadderton Central Chadderton North Chadderton South Coldhurst Crompton Failsworth East Failsworth West Hollinwood Lees Royton North Royton South Saddleworth East Saddleworth West St. James St. Marys St. Pauls Shaw Waterhead Werneth Rochdale Balderstone Brimrod and Deeplish Castleton Central and Falinge Healey Heywood North Heywood South Heywood West Littleborough Middleton Central Middleton East Middleton North Middleton South Middleton West Milnrow Newbold Norden and Bamford S bridge and W worth Spotland Wardle Greater Manchester North West England & Wales Source: Census 2001 Oldham Rochdale July

58 Figure 37: Economic Activity in Oldham-Rochdale July

59 4.16 When considering economic inactivity (Figure 38), the wards with a higher percentage of economically inactive residents also correspond closely with those wards with the highest percentage of unemployed. The only addition to this would be Failsworth West, which although having an unemployment rate that compares favourably to the regional and subregional average (5.1% in 2001), there are over 36.4% economically inactive residents within the ward. Figure 38: Economically Inactive Economically inactive ALL PEOPLE Economically inactive Retired Student Looking after home/family Permanently sick/disabled Other Oldham Alexandra Chadderton Central Chadderton North Chadderton South Coldhurst Crompton Failsworth East Failsworth West Hollinwood Lees Royton North Royton South Saddleworth East Saddleworth West St. James St. Marys St. Pauls Shaw Waterhead Werneth Rochdale Balderstone B rod and Deeplish Castleton Central and Falinge Healey Heywood North Heywood South Heywood West Littleborough Middleton Central Middleton East Middleton North Middleton South Middleton West Milnrow Newbold Norden and Bamford S bridge and W worth Spotland Wardle Greater Manchester North West England & Wales Source: Census 2001 Oldham Rochdale July

60 Unemployment Trends 4.17 The chart below shows the Job Seeker Allowance claimant count for both Oldham and Rochdale, relative to the North West picture. it is clear that there is a strong declining trend in the number of individuals claiming job seekers allowance. The number of claimants has more than halved, with a decrease in Oldham from 8,805 in January 1996 to 3,564 in July 2004 and in Rochdale, a decrease in Oldham from 8,045 in January 1996 to 3,578 in July Figure 39: JSA Claim ant Count, Claimants Jan- 96 Jan- 97 Jan- 98 Jan- 99 Jan- 00 Jan- 01 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 O ldham Rochdale North W est Claimants Source: Local Labour Force Survey Economic Inactivity: Sick / Disabled 4.18 Using Figure 38 (Economic Inactivity) above as a filter, we can present a more refined picture of worklessness than is perhaps presented by the JSA Claimant Count. Figure 40: Registered Sick and Disabled % Change % of Population Sick / Disabled (2001) Oldham Alexandra Coldhurst Failsworth West Hollinwood Lees St.James St.Marys St.Pauls Werneth July

61 Rochdale Balderstone Brimrod and Deeplish Heywood North Heywood West Middleton Central Middleton North Middleton West Newbold Smallbridge and Wardleworth North West England and Wales Source: Census 1991, The above table indicates that between 1991 and 2001, the numbers of residents registering as permanently sick or disabled increased in both Oldham and Rochdale by 35% and 36% respectively. This is in excess of the regional and national average over the same period, which recorded an increase of 27% and 32% respectively At ward level, those wards of Oldham and Rochdale where economic inactivity is greater than the Greater Manchester average, all wards reported increases in the numbers of residents registering themselves as permanently sick or disabled. In the worst cases, increases of over 40% have been recorded (Alexandra, Hollinwood, Lees, St. James, Heywood North, Middleton North, Smallbridge and Wardleworth wards). Taken as an average, the wards of Oldham and Rochdale displaying the highest recorded rates of economic inactivity, contain approximately 1 in 10 of their population registered as permanently sick or disabled. July

62 Labour Market Inactivity 4.21 The trend in economic inactivity has remained fairly steady between 2000 and 2004 in Oldham and Rochdale. In 2004, economic inactivity amongst the working age population in Oldham and Rochdale was 23% and 22.4% respectively. Figure 41: Labour Market Inactivity % of working age population economically inactive Sep 2000-Aug 2001 Sep 2001-Aug 2002 Sep 2002-Aug 2003 Sep 2003-Aug 2004 Oldham Rochdale North West Entgland and Wales Source: Local Labour Force Survey Ethnicity Dimension to Inactivity Figure 42: Working Age Inactivity Rate by Ethnic Group 2002/3 All White All Nonwhite Mixed Indian Banglad eshi Black Other ENGLAND NORTH WEST GREATER MANCHESTER Oldham Rochdale Source: Labour Force Survey 4.22 Although there is a relatively steady trend of inactivity in both Oldham and Rochdale, it holds that there is an ethnic dimension to inactivity in the two towns, as highlighted in Figure 42 above. Labour Market Summary 4.23 Looking at the different aspects of economic inactivity, what conclusions can be drawn about the respective labour markets in Oldham and Rochdale Figure 43 (a and b) indexes the data for both authorities. July

63 4.24 In both Oldham and Rochdale, the claimant count has been declining. In 2003, it is just over 84% of the rate recorded in This trend appears to be continuing. However, looking at the unemployment rate the rates in Oldham and Rochdale in 2003 as against 1999 is 102% and 94% respectively (albeit, both Oldham and Rochdale show some fluctuations between the period) The economic activity rate and employment rate in both Oldham and Rochdale have remained relatively static (102% in Oldham relative to base year and 98% in Rochdale relative to base year). The data indicates that when people come of the JSA, then crucially, they are not re-entering the labour market, which would certainly explain the 8% increase in economic inactivity in Rochdale. Figure 43(a): Labour Market Analysis - Oldham Economic Inactivity Unemployment Rate Claimant Count Employment Rate Economic Activity 0.0 Mar Feb 2000 Mar Feb 2001 Mar Feb 2002 Mar Feb 2003 Figure 43(b): Labour Market Analysis - Rochdale Economic Inactivity Unemployment Rate Claimant Count Employment Rate Economic Activity 0.0 Mar Feb 2000 Mar Feb 2001 Mar Feb 2002 Mar Feb July

64 Earnings a Proxy for Skills Levels 4.27 Average weekly wages (Figure 44) for employees working within Oldham and Rochdale are and respectively; this is well below the regional and national averages of and respectively. This is indicative of the economic problems faced by the area. Figure 44: Full Time Workers: Gross Weekly Pay ( ) per week Oldham Rochdale North West England and Wales Source: New Earnings Survey (Workplace) 4.28 The evidence further suggests that wages in Oldham and Rochdale have at best remained static (in the case of Rochdale) and even started to decline (in the case of Oldham) However, an interesting result is found when we look at gross weekly earnings by residence against the workplace profile illustrated above. One might expect that given the profile of the labour market, there may be significant differentials between residence and workplace earnings. This is certainly true for Rochdale, where there is a pay gap of per week between those that work and those that live in Rochdale. For Oldham, no discernible gap exists (the pay gap being just 3.18 per week). This would certainly seem to suggest that those with higher level qualifications in Rochdale are forced to travel outside of Rochdale to find employment suitable to their level of skills. This is supported when considering the difference in residence and workplace based earnings in Rochdale In all instances, average weekly wages in both Oldham and Rochdale lag behind the regional average, more so for those that work in Oldham and Rochdale, than for those that live in Oldham and Rochdale. From Figure 45, it is clear that those living in Oldham and Rochdale have an average weekly wage that is just less than the regional average, but for those working in Oldham and Rochdale, then there is a pay gap of per week. July

65 Figure 45: Difference between Residence and Workplace Based Earnings Residence Workplace Difference (R-W) Oldham Rochdale North West England Difference (O-NW) Difference (R-NW) Difference (O-E) Difference (R-E) Source: New Earnings Survey 4.31 Bringing the above together, paints an interesting picture for the local economy and the housing market in Oldham and Rochdale. Here is a sub-regional economy where wages are low relative to the regional economy, and at best, static. It holds that if local firms were demanding employees with higher level skills, then one would expect to see wage levels increasing, which for both Oldham and Rochdale they are not Moreover, average (workplace) wages in Rochdale are some per week less than the average weekly wage in Oldham, suggesting that here is an economy that is skewed towards lower value and hence lower skills Figure 46 (a and b) consider average earnings in the context of the key economic drivers of Manchester and Leeds and in many respects begins to shed further light on the respective local economies of Oldham and Rochdale. Figure 46(a): Workplace Earnings in Oldham, Rochdale, Manchester and Leeds 2003 Oldham Rochdale Manchester Leeds 1 : Managers and Senior Officials : Professional Occupations : Associate Professional and Technical Occupations Source: New Earnings Survey 4.35 Figure 46(a) highlights the incentivisation effect for the higher earning occupations. Managers and Senior Officials will earn some more per week in Manchester than they would do in Oldham and more per week than they would earn in Rochdale. Similarly the incentivisation effect is clearly evident for Professional Occupations and Associate Professional and Technical Occupations. Figure 46(b): Workplace Earnings in Oldham, Rochdale, Manchester and Leeds 2003 July

66 Oldham Rochdale Manchester Leeds 4 : Administrative and Secretarial Occupations : Skilled Trades Occupations : Personal Service Occupations : Sales and Customer Service occupations : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives : Elementary Occupations Source: New Earnings Survey 4.37 Yet the incentivisation effect reduces dramatically when considering the average workplace earnings of the less qualified. In terms of Skilled Trade Occupations, Personal Service Occupations, Sales and Customer Service Occupations, then there is no discernible advantage between Manchester and Oldham and Rochdale, and hence no advantage in travelling outside of the boroughs to work. Skills 4.38 Figure 47 below outlines the qualification levels of the working age population in Oldham and Rochdale. 17.4% and 19.1% of the population of Oldham and Rochdale respectively have qualifications upto at leadt NVQ4 (first degree or higher), which is slightly below the regional average of 21.4%. 13.7% and 13% (Oldham and Rochdale respectively) are educated to NVQ 3 level, which compares favourbly with the regional average of 14.3% However, the percentage of the population of Oldham and Rochdale with no qualifications is considerably higher than the regional and national average. This is also illustrated at a more localised level in Figure 47b below. % NVQ4+ Figure 47: Qualification Level of Working Age Population Oldham Rochdale North West England and Wales NVQ3 Trade apprenticeships NVQ2 NVQ1 Other qualifications No qualifications Source: Census 2001 July

67 Figure 47b: No Qualifications in Oldham-Rochdale July