TREB Housing Market Charts. October 2017

Transcription

1 October 2017

2 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 TREB MLS Sales Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS sales for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. Toronto Real Estate Board 2

3 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 TREB MLS New Listings Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS new listings for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. Toronto Real Estate Board 3

4 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% TREB MLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. Toronto Real Estate Board 4

5 TREB MLS Average Resale Home Price Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison $1,000, $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS average home price for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. Toronto Real Estate Board 5

6 TREB MLS Sales Monthly Time Series with Trend Line 14,000 Actual MLS Sales 12,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS sales since January The blue line shows actual sales. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend. Toronto Real Estate Board 6

7 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 TREB MLS New Listings Monthly Time Series with Trend Line Actual MLS New Listings Trend (12-Month Moving Average) Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS new listings since January The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend. Toronto Real Estate Board 7

8 975, , , , , , , , ,000 TREB MLS Average Price Monthly Time Series with Trend Line Actual MLS Average Price Trend (12-Month Moving Average) Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS average price since January The blue line shows the actual average price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the trend. Toronto Real Estate Board 8

9 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (Blue Line) TREB MLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Average Price Annual Per Cent Change 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Average Price Annual Per Cent Change (Brown Line) Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends lower. Toronto Real Estate Board 9

10 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home *Note: Assumes TREB average price and average 5-Year fixed rate mortgage Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada 1. Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB per cent down payment 3. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization 4. Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending 5. Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index 6. Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward). Toronto Real Estate Board 10