CITY OF RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT

Transcription

1 Page 1 CITY OF RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT DATE: October 26, 2016 TO: FROM: BY: SUBJECT: City Council of the City of Rancho Santa Margarita Jennifer M. Cervantez, City Manage~\J~ Cheryl Kuta, Development Services V~tor Results of Focused Market Study for the potential future development of the City-owned Chiquita Ridge Open Space Property Recommendation 1) Receive presentation. 2) Provide direction to staff, as appropriate. Background and Discussion On August 24, 2016 the City Council approved a Professional services Agreement (PSA) with Hunden Strategic Partners, Inc. (HSP) for the preparation of a Focused Market Study for the potential development of the Chiquita Ridge Open Space Property. The PSA authorized the firm to prepare a focused retail, residential, and hospitality market study to update previous analyses prepared in The PSA allocated an approximately two-month timeframe for completion of the study. HSP has completed a draft of the Focused Market Study and will present the findings at the meeting. Staff has attached the draft Executive Summary from the report as a preview of the information to be provided at the meeting. Rob Hunden, from HSP, will give a PowerPoint presentation summarizing the data the firm collected and the findings of the Study. Following the presentation, staff and the consultant will answer questions and receive feedback from the City Council. City Council feedback will be incorporated into the final draft of the report. Fiscal Impact There is no fiscal impact related to the recommended action. Attachments A. Hunden Strategic Partners Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property DRAFT, October 17, /26/16 Item No. 7.2

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3 Page 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Project Orientation & Previous Study Findings Economic & Demographic Analysis Retail and Restaurant Market Analysis & Trends Residential Market Analysis & Trends Hotel Market Analysis & Trends Recommendations Financial Projections Economic, Employment & Fiscal Impact Analysis ATTACHMENT A

4 Page 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Rancho Santa Margarita (City or RSM) engaged Hunden Strategic Partners (HSP or Team) to conduct a real estate market demand analysis and feasibility study for the development of the Chiquita Ridge Property (Property or CRP). The Client is seeking market validation for the amount and mix of uses to ensure development is feasible in the marketplace, is realistic, attracts qualified developers and still contains the compelling mix of uses, nodes and anchors that will sustain the area for the next generation. Hunden Strategic Partners (HSP) will determine, in the balance of this report, the current, unmet and future needs of the community, as well as local, regional and national market conditions impacting mixed-use districts, as well as specific development types, in order to provide the Client with a strong and supported plan for future steps. Located south of RSM s commercial core, the Property lies between Antonio Parkway and the State Route 241 Toll Road. Tijeras Creek Golf Club is also located just to the west of the Property across Antonio Parkway. The following figure shows an overhead view of the Property. Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 2

5 Page 5 Figure 1 The green line designates the Chiquita Ridge Property, which borders the homeowner association-owned Cañada Vista Park and the City Boundary. Cañada Vista Park has two lighted baseball diamonds, a Cityowned Skate Park and dog park. There is also a separate six-acre parcel of land surrounded by the Property and owned and utilized by the Santa Margarita Water District, which has an active water tank and access drive bifurcating the Chiquita Ridge Property. City Council received the Phase 2 results in March 2014 and determined two preferred development scenarios: Large anchor/warehouse retail shopping center with gas station Mixed-use allowing for both a large anchor/warehouse club and a low-density single-family detached residential development After the selection of these scenarios, City Council issued a request-for-proposal, which resulted in Hunden Strategic Partners being selected as the firm to conduct Phase 3, the current phase, of the study. Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 3

6 Page 6 SWOT Analysis A SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) Analysis was conducted. A SWOT analysis identifies critical factors that impact CRP s situation. It also suggests implications for the sizing and quality of development at the Property given the current environment. Strengths and weaknesses are current factors impacting CRP as well as items inherent at the Property or in the market, while opportunities and threats are potential and external factors impacting the success of development at the Property. Opportunities Constraints Active Sports Park. The requirement for the City of Rancho Santa Margarita to construct an active sports park at CRP offers the opportunity to develop a high-quality park capable of hosting local and regional tournaments. The participants, spectators and event staff will generate additional demand for retail centers, restaurants and hospitality offerings. This demand may all be accommodated on-site within a dense, walkable, mixed-use development that offers a variety of options and price points for visitors. Significant Land Sale Proceeds. As has been studied and determined previously, a land sale to a homebuilder or commercial developer for a portion or all of the land at CRP available for development could result in a significant amount of one-time revenue for the City. These proceeds may be utilized to develop the sports park and/or issue debt to finance other projects. One of Few Large Parcels left for development in the area. This makes the long-term commercial use of the Property a stronger opportunity than a land sale for pure residential use. Plus, housing can create long-term financial drain to necessary additional amenities and services needed for additional residents. Long-term Tax Revenue. In addition to land sale proceeds, is the ability for the City to have a steady, long-term stream of taxes collected from the Property when a retail center and/or hotel property is constructed. These developments would produce annual tax revenue for the City that may assist in supporting the sports park s maintenance and operations or other projects. Further analysis is required to understand the costs associated with the sports park. Interest from Big Box Retailers. Big box retailers have shown initial interest in the Property, if the opportunity arises to purchase the land for development of a new store location. Interest is coming from parties that do and do not have existing operations in RSM. Further discussions with these companies are necessary before any terms may be considered concrete. Hotel market is strong in the local area, yet there is no hotel supply in RSM. Weekday demand from Applied Medical and other corporate headquarters combined with social, religious and sports demand on weekends and summers creates a compelling case for a new select-service hotel in RSM. Daily rate and occupancy have been rising in the market, which indicated a lack of available hotel rooms. Location. Despite the excellent market, the location of CRP is currently seen as a challenge due to lackluster traffic counts and relatively small residential presence immediately surrounding Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 4

7 Page 7 CRP. The Property is located away from other synergistic developments, which necessitates a critical mass on-site. Site Condition. Due to the existing topography and an aboveground water tank owned by the Santa Margarita Water District, leveling the site and either moving the water tank or burying it on-site will increase site development costs and ultimately adversely affects financial feasibility for any Project proposed by a developer. The City may need to take steps to either mitigate these costs upfront or incentivize a land sale in order to attract developers. Competition. The potential for competition from other South Orange County communities is significant given the level of hotel and retail development that is either under construction or planned for the near future. Timing. The current market climate is favorable, though another recession or negative market shock can happen unexpectedly. If the opportunity for the private sector to develop Chiquita Ridge is missed during this cycle, it may be multiple years before the Property will generate an attractive offer from developers. This risk exists regardless of location and potential use. Big Box Retail Contracts. As other communities have experienced, certain big box retailers typically include provisions in their contracts that disallow other big box retails from occupying a vacated store location for years following the companies exit. This can create difficulty in retenanting the warehouse club and strain the performance of the overall Property. A full SWOT analysis on the Chiquita Ridge Property is available in Chapter 6 Recommendations. Recommendations Below is the development plan for the three scenarios HSP developed in response to the City s goals and the preceding market analysis. The following table shows the three development scenarios HSP analyzed for the highest and best use analysis of CRP. Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 5

8 Page 8 Scenario Table 1 Chiquita Ridge Development Scenario Summary Warehouse Club Traditional Retail Restaurant Residential Hotel Total Scenario 1 Size (SF, Units, Rooms) 135,000 15,000 35, Acreage (incl. parking) Minimum Parking Spaces * Total 20-Year Impact (000s) $32,205 $3,142 $10,577 $16,161 $11,062 $73,147 Scenario 2 Size (SF, Units, Rooms) 135,000 50,000 50, Acreage (incl. parking) Minimum Parking Spaces ,605 Total 20-Year Impact (000s) $32,205 $10,473 $15, $22,124 $79,912 Scenario 3 Units Acreage (incl. parking) Minimum Parking Spaces * Total 20-Year Impact (000s) $53, $53,498 * Garage parking within building footprint Source: Hunden Strategic Partners A Membership-Based Warehouse Club should be a top priority for development at CRP for multiple reasons. For the two entities mentioned, sale of the land is required, which means an upfront cash flow for the city, as well as the annual sales tax revenue generated from store sales. A membership-based warehouse club also has expressed willingness to participate in site preparation costs, including infrastructure and grading. Many other developers would require those costs to be covered by the City in order to purchase the land once prepared. A membership-based warehouse club also provides the destination appeal needed for a site facing traffic pattern and visibility challenges such as CRP. This is especially true when the big box retailer has a grocery department. Surrounding communities such as Ladera Ranch, Coto De Caza and Las Flores will generate significant demand for such a retailer. Traditional Retail should also be included in the development, though only when accompanying an anchor retail store such as a membership-based warehouse club or grocery store. Additional retail offerings will create a necessary variety and potentially add to the overall offerings of the development. Restaurants are also an important piece of the development. Restaurants will create daily demand from surrounding communities as well as accommodate on-site demand from most, if not all, other uses. Hotel guests will find the property more attractive with an accessible group of offerings. Event planners will consider restaurants part of the overall destination package along with available lodging for youth sporting events. Wal- Mart and Sam s Club have also specifically mentioned the benefit of having adjacent restaurants for store patrons, which ultimately boosts the performance of both parties. Residential developments offer the greatest upfront cash flow per acre, though the very limited annual tax income received by the City hinders the overall performance and attractiveness of this use. Residential developments will provide built-in daily demand for retail (both big box and traditional) and restaurants, which is important for the ultimate success of such businesses, however, the opportunity cost of the use is the long Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 6

9 Page 9 term benefits of any commercial use. Based on the model used for this analysis, any commercial use that remains on the Property for ten years or longer will surpass the impact of the upfront land sale and miniscule annual tax revenue associated with selling land to a homebuilder. Residential uses should be considered for goals beyond the monetary benefit of the City, such as relieving pressure in the housing market currently created by a lack of supply and increasing population and employment in South Orange County. A Hotel is a strong fit for the City. Without any existing hotels in RSM, the City is leaking all hotel demand to, predominantly, Foothill Ranch and Mission Viejo. The significant corporate demand generated by Applied Medical and other headquarters within the City can be recaptured. RSM may capture the corporate demand and group demand from weddings and sporting events from the future sports park (assuming it is of tournament quality and size) simply by offering a quality, affordable hotel more proximate than those in surrounding communities. In order to reap these benefits, the City will need to establish a hotel occupancy tax. This is a very important factor concerning this analysis as HSP has assumed a rate of eight percent, though any variation in either direction will have a significant affect on the projections presented in the following chapter. The first two scenarios have a single difference, which is the development of either one hotel and attached residential in the form of townhomes or a second hotel in place of the residential development. The third development scenario was used as a control in order to compare commercial and residential uses holistically. Financial Projections For this analysis, HSP included a projection model for the three scenarios presented. The three scenarios will initially be compared on a cash flow basis to determine the direct impact of each on the City. The top two scenarios will be analyzed more deeply for the overall economic, employment and fiscal impact on the City. Those results will be presented in the following chapter. Assumptions In order to generate the results from the model, HSP made various assumptions from information and data gathered throughout the process of analyzing the market and trends for various uses. The following table shows the general assumptions used for the model. Table 2 Chiquita Ridge Development Assumptions - General Metric Assumption Site Size (acres) 32 Land Value/Acre (Commercial) $1,200,000 Land Value/Acre (Residential) $1,600,000 Local Sales Tax 1% Property Tax (RSM Portion) 0.03% Annual Property Value Increase 2% Source: Hunden Strategic Partners Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 7

10 Page 10 The assumptions presented in the table above are based on market conditions specific to RSM, as well as an industry metric assisting in the determination of acres developable for the uses explored throughout this report. Land must be dedicated to roads and infrastructure, which is accounted for in the total acreage for each use through a parking multiplier. Land values per acre were determined by comparable land sale transactions completed since the beginning of 2015 in South Orange County. City Staff provided the tax rates and property value increase rate. The 32-acre site shall be utilized as efficiently and completely as possible due to the high cost of the land and development conducted by private for-profit businesses. Density of commercial projects built upon the Property should be similar to comparable shopping centers in the market. There will be little room for additional amenities beyond the buildings footprints and related parking. A residential development reflecting HSP s assumptions would be slightly less dense than Dahlia Court, which is currently under construction near Robinson Ranch. The townhomes at Dahlia Court are being developed with approximately 19 homes per acre, while HSP assumed 15 homes per acre to allow for more green space. The additional space may also be considered for surface parking serving the townhomes, though the assumption is all parking will be contained within the footprint of the townhomes. All land is assumed to be sold to another party or parties regardless of the scenario selected. The following table shows the assumptions made for each specific use. Table 3 Chiquita Ridge Development Assumptions - Use Specific Assumption Retail Restaurant Warehouse Club Hotel* Residential Sales (PSF) $350 $450 $ Average Daily Rate $ Occupancy % % -- Unit Size (SF) ,000 Units Per Acre Average Sale Price/Unit $550,000 % Taxable Sales 100% 100% 70% 100% -- Applicable Tax Rate 1% 1% 1% 8% 0.03% *No hotel tax currently established Source: Hunden Strategic Partners The various markets in South Orange County and benchmarking metrics drive the assumptions presented in this table and utilized for the following analysis. Restaurant and retail spaces were given average sales per square foot based on rent rolls and a rent-to-revenue ratio of approximately ten percent. This metric means that all tenant costs (rent plus triple-net expenses) is typically around ten percent of overall sales for tenants. National tenants and restaurants typically negotiate for lower percentages. The big box sales per square foot are based on the national average produced by an interested membership-based warehouse club. The same membership-based warehouse club also produces taxable sales of 70 percent due to the prevalence of grocery offerings in its stores. Based on the hotel market analysis HSP completed and presented later in this report, average daily rate expected for an upscale hotel property at CRP is $130 with an occupancy rate of Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 8

11 Page 11 seventy percent on an annual basis. Residential developments at CRP should be kept dense, which is reflected in the assumed units per acre and unit size for attached townhomes. Financial Projections The following table shows the upfront, annual and total 20-year cash flow from each use and allows a comparison of total direct impact to the City between each scenario. Table 4 Projected Cash Flow from Development to City of Rancho Santa Margarita (000s) Land Sale Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Scenario 1 Membership-Based Warehouse Club $ 15,600 $ 651 $ 667 $ 684 $ 701 $ 718 Traditional Retail $ 1,763 $ 54 $ 55 $ 57 $ 58 $ 60 Traditional Restaurant $ 6,424 $ 163 $ 167 $ 171 $ 175 $ 180 Hotel* $ 3,000 $ 316 $ 324 $ 332 $ 340 $ 349 Residential $ 15,483 $ 28 $ 28 $ 29 $ 30 $ 30 $ 42,271 $ 1,211 $ 1,241 $ 1,272 $ 1,304 $ 1,336 Scenario 2 Membership-Based Warehouse Club $ 15,600 $ 651 $ 667 $ 684 $ 701 $ 718 Traditional Retail $ 5,877 $ 180 $ 185 $ 189 $ 194 $ 199 Traditional Restaurant $ 9,177 $ 233 $ 238 $ 244 $ 250 $ 257 Hotel* $ 6,000 $ 632 $ 647 $ 664 $ 680 $ 697 $ 36,655 $ 1,695 $ 1,737 $ 1,781 $ 1,825 $ 1,870 Scenario 3 Residential Only $ 51,200 $ 95 $ 96 $ 98 $ 100 $ 102 * Assumes 8% Local Hotel Tax is Enacted Source: Hunden Strategic Partners Year 10 $ 812 $ 67 $ 203 $ 394 $ 33 $ 1,510 $ 812 $ 225 $ 290 $ 788 $ 2,115 $ 113 Year 20 Total $ 1,038 $ 32,205 $ 86 $ 3,142 $ 260 $ 10,577 $ 504 $ 11,062 $ 41 $ 16,161 $ 1,929 $ 73,147 $ 1,038 $ 32,205 $ 287 $ 10,473 $ 371 $ 15,110 $ 1,008 $ 22,124 $ 2,705 $ 79,912 $ 138 $ 53,498 The cash flow that is presented in the table includes the initial land sale to a developer, sales tax, property tax and hotel occupancy tax, which sum to the total on the right-hand side of the table. Scenario 3 produces a considerably greater amount of upfront cash flow than the other two scenarios with the sale of the land for a residential purpose. The difference is more than a full $11 million from the initial sale. However, on an annual basis Scenarios 1 and 2 immediately surpass Scenario 3. Scenario 2 has the highest annual revenue production due to the addition of a second hotel. Hotels have the greatest impact per acre of any use analyzed. Scenario 2 has the highest 20-year cash flow of the three scenarios as well, generating nearly $86 million for the City in that time. The more than $5-million difference between Scenario 1 and 2 demonstrates the value of higher annual tax production over greater one-time initial payments in this situation. Scenario 1 generated $7 million more than Scenario 2 in the initial sale, though the higher annual income of Scenario 2 allowed it to generate $5 million more than Scenario 1 over the 20-year period. The marginal difference between Scenario 3 s initial land sale cash flow and total cash flow over 20 years shows how negligible the amount of property tax generated for the City is regardless of the value of the asset being taxed. Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 9

12 Page 12 Implications While HSP has presented three scenarios for comparison, it is generally recommended that commercial uses with a sale of the land to the respective developer(s) be made in order for the City to maximize the benefit of CRP. In that case, upfront cash flow may be used to issue debt or outright develop the sports park, and the annual tax production of the commercial uses may be used to subsidize the likely operational deficit the sports park will experience. The greater initial revenue associated with the sale of land for a residential use will fade as the sports park continues operation indefinitely, which property tax will have virtually no chance of significantly subsidizing unless the current tax climate changes for the City. Impact Analysis Based on the analysis of potential business at the CRP, HSP made projections of direct cash flow to the City in a later chapter. This does not include the potential additional impact from the businesses at CRP. The following impact analysis shows the impact projections for Scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 3 is not analyzed further in this chapter due to previous decisions made by City Council as well as a considerably lower longterm value than Scenarios 1 and 2. The following table shows Scenarios 1 and 2 and their respective impacts on the City. Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 10

13 Page 13 Table 5 Summary of 20-Year Impacts Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Net New Spending (millions) Direct $1,363 $1,622 Indirect $398 $469 Induced $279 $335 Total $2,040 $2,426 Net New Local Earnings (millions) From Direct $184 $223 From Indirect $58 $68 From Induced $45 $54 Total $287 $345 Net New FTE Jobs Actual From Direct 919 1,106 From Indirect From Induced Total 1,100 1,322 Community Taxes Collected (millions) Lodging 8% $3.5 $7.0 Property Tax $0.6 $0.4 Sales 1% $8.0 $10.1 Total $12.0 $17.5 Construction Impact (millions) New Materials Spending $54.4 $34.0 New Labor Spending $20.4 $12.7 Job-Years, Actual Source: Hunden Strategic Partners A side-by-side comparison reveals that the two scenarios are only marginally different from a perspective of economic, employment and fiscal impact. Scenario 2 has the upper hand in most categories, including net new spending, net new local earnings, net new full-time equivalent jobs and taxes collected by the community. Construction impact through materials and labor spending as well as total job-years from construction is the one category that Scenario 1 bests Scenario 2. Conclusion Based on the analysis of spending and economic, employment and fiscal impact, Scenario 2 is the superior option of the development scenarios presented in this report. In the case of Chiquita Ridge Property, commercial uses generate more overall impact through additional sales and other taxes that outweigh the initial benefit of higher land sales for residential uses. This conclusion is based on the long-term goals expressed by the City of Rancho Santa Margarita at the time of this study. Recommendations for the development of Chiquita Ridge are as follows: Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 11

14 Page 14 City should pursue a membership-based warehouse club as the anchor tenant at a CRP shopping center. Once the membership-based warehouse club tenant is confirmed, additional space for retail and restaurants should be considered for development adjacent to the anchor tenant. The impact of a hotel development is purely dependent on the hotel tax rate instituted by the City. A hotel tax rate of eight percent or higher will generate similar or greater impact than projected, respectively. Without a hotel tax rate, a hotel development will generate no impact for the City and should not be pursued. Residential developments should be the last use for consideration when considering overall, long-term impact for the City. Residential uses may be considered for development at CRP if commercial uses do not fully utilize available land. HSP expects that commercial developments will fill the available land and produce significantly more impact for the City in the long-term. In the event that a membership-based warehouse club or another big box retailer may not be acquired as an anchor tenant, the resulting course of action would depend on the City s priorities. If the City was inclined to develop the Property as soon as possible to generate land sales revenue to fund the development of the sports park, selling the Property for development of residential and a hotel would still be viable, produce upfront cash flow for the City and generate long-term fiscal impact for the City, though it would be limited relative to Scenario 2. If the City were focused on the long-term fiscal impact of various commercial uses at the Property and the enhancement of the hospitality packager surrounding the sports park, holding the Property until greater commercial interest is experienced would allow the highest and best use to be developed. Focused Market Study for Chiquita Ridge Property Executive Summary Page 12