White Paper of Manuel Jahn, Head of Real Estate Consulting GfK GeoMarketing. Hamburg, March page 1 of 6

Transcription

1 White Paper of Manuel Jahn, Head of Real Estate Consulting GfK GeoMarketing Hamburg, March 2012 page 1 of 6

2 The misunderstanding Despite a very robust 2011 in terms of investment transaction volume and favorable prognoses for 2012, the demand for German retail real estate could only partially be satisfied. Investment capital was often kept in a holding pattern due to a lack of suitable products. In this case, "product" refers primarily to high-value, existing real estate objects with stable cash flow in large cities that are leased long-term to well-known, credit-worthy retailers. These objects are commonly characterized as "core. The strong focus on this very small market segment has led to prices that almost make indirect investments no longer economically viable. This narrowly defined product demand in the investment strategy of investment firms is based on a misunderstanding, the cause of which is presumably to be found in the office market sector. The categories of quality and risk are significantly different and more complex in the case of retail real estate. Rather than the rental contract and general building and location quality, it is the available potential that enables real estate to generate retail turnover and rental income. The available potential thus has the greatest impact on the opportunities and risks of a given investment. More so than any other asset class, the success of retail real estate is dependent upon the essential fundamental driver on the demand side, i.e. the end consumers. Yet these demand drivers are not at all taken into account by the prevailing definition of the core investment strategy for retail real estate. Consequences Particularly in highly sought after markets such as the current German retail real estate market, the implementation of quantitative investment goals incites pressure to acquire. If demand is greater than supply, the stipulated goals can only be met within the confines of the budget if the scope of prospective investments is broadened. However, portfolio managers of trust assets in particular cannot simply abandon the investment strategies to which they have committed. Some market participants occasionally resort to a more generous interpretation of the conventional definition of the four investment styles in order to ensure that at least some investments can be made in tight markets. Others do not have this liberty and sometimes experience difficulties from the too-narrow interpretations of investment boards. GfK GeoMarketing has established that neither conventionally narrow interpretations nor creative re-definitions of the investment styles adequately articulate the actual opportunities and risks associated with retail real estate. Both approaches also fail to take into account the fundamental drivers of demand. Currently, the approach gaining the upper hand does not adequately consider the actual concrete real estate objects. This approach vacillates between the two extremes of macro-economic risk management and pragmatic sales strategy. Two conflicting mentalities thus characterize 2011 in terms of the investment in and financing of retail real estate: a cautious approach that focuses on asset management, but ultimately misses out on opportunities, and an assertive, acquisition-oriented approach that tends toward risk tolerance. These mentalities affect the market more strongly than the actual opportunities and risks associated with concrete real estate objects. As more secure investments are understandably a point of focus in this time of economic uncertainty, GfK GeoMarketing has resolved to provide a more serviceable, fact-based definition of "core retail real estate". The new definition will allow market participants to better assess retail real estate. page 2 of 6

3 Conventional risk classification in the real estate sector The literature often refers to the definition of investment styles in the stock or securities sector, making a distinction between growth- and value-based investment styles. The growth-based approach focuses on investing in a company's value with expectations of high gains, while the value-based approach focuses on investing in undervalued companies. Investment strategies can also be based on classifying investments according to market capitalization and the corresponding categories of "small cap", "mid cap", "large cap" and "blue chips". To complicate matters, these various investment styles are defined and used differently in the real estate sector. The four conventional investment styles - ranging from "core" to "opportunistic" - are intended to roughly characterize the risk associated with a real estate investment. In addition to the known challenges associated with adequately measuring and evaluating risk in this context, the definition must also grapple with the fact that there is no general consensus at what point risks and opportunities are actually balanced. A given investor may regard a balanced opportunity-risk distribution as based in the core segment, while another investor sees it as based in the value-added segment. Given the fact that there is no authoritative definition in this regard and yet the "core" concept remains dogma among investors and asset managers, we deem it essential to come up with guidelines for a better, more unified use of this term in the realm of retail real estate. A return to reality The general consensus is that core objects in the retail sector are good locations that offer stable, long-term rental cash flow. The value of the real estate object and the image of the investment location are frequent points of focus. These latter criteria are, however, usually inadequate with regard to identifying the key opportunities and risks, not to mention attributes such as city-center or metropolitan locations. It still makes sense to pursue well-known, credit-worthy tenants with long-term rental contracts, even though many proprietors know that a contract is worthless if the tenant does not meet his turnover goals. GfK GeoMarketing has observed that between 60 and 80 percent of rental contracts in German shopping centers are adjusted in some way before the termination of the contract period. A good location is a prerequisite for the success of all retail real estate, although location quality is defined in very different ways depending on the retail format in question. The most important criterion for the success of retail real estate is the ability of an object to draw end customers. While there are many spatial, temporal and object-specific elements that impact success, these are all of secondary importance, because they cannot compensate for deficient customer drawing power. The ability to draw customers is key to the long-term economic success of retail real estate. Regardless of the type of retail real estate, location drawing power is an expression of the competency of the offering, conception and management. A security-oriented investment strategy should therefore focus on the ability of a given retail real estate object to draw customers. GfK GeoMarketing therefore recommends the following re-definition of the "core investment strategy" in the retail real estate segment: page 3 of 6

4 A core strategy in the retail real estate segment is the investment in existing real estate that is oriented to the shopping needs of end customers and that supplies rental cash flow commensurate with the sustainable turnover potential generated by the tenants. Turnover potential and the amount of rent commanded by this type of retail real estate are expressions of the long-term absorption of the available purchasing power volume. Supported by active asset management, core real estate objects facilitate the implementation of long-term investment strategies that offer sustainable, value-stable leasing to retail tenants. As such, the core investment strategy can be considered low-risk. The prerequisites for the above-described re-definition of the core investment strategy for retail real estate are as follows: Responsive to the shopping needs of end customers In contrast to the conventional definition of the core investment strategy that focuses more on external, imprecise attributes of retail real estate such as "value", the GfK definition focuses on the extent to which retail real estate satisfies consumer need, which is the most important success factor of a shopping location. As consumers' shopping motivations increasingly vary, qualities related to the spatial attributes, offering, image, architecture and locations of shopping venues must be adjusted to these specific requirements. All types of retail real estate - irrespective of their value - are equally impacted by the changing structural conditions of the retail sector: Marble, high-street and metropolitan locations do not safeguard against vacancies. The more responsive retail real estate is to shopping needs, the more secure the customer acceptance. Long-term absorption of purchasing power volume A central location in a large city is not the overriding determinant of the turnover potential of a retail real estate object. Catchment areas are developed based on the strength of the retail offering, competitors, shopping relations and accessibility. These catchment areas encompass clearly discernible purchasing power volumes that are differentiated by product line. A varying degree of market share can be secured depending on the strength of the corresponding market position. The long-term, sustainable market share determines the turnover potential that can be achieved by the retail real estate object. The turnover potential specific to relevant product lines can be calculated for the real estate object. This yields detailed information regarding the sustainable turnover and the corresponding rent potential of the tenant branches or anchor tenants. The better the market position, the less vulnerable the market penetration is to the competition and the more secure the turnover potential. page 4 of 6

5 Sustainable relationship between turnover potential and rental cash flow In contrast to the prevailing definition of the core investment strategy, which regards the reputation and creditworthiness of tenants as the means of securing rental cash flow, GfK's definition focuses on achieving an economically viable relationship between the turnover potential of tenants and their rent payments; this factor is evaluated independently of the reputation of the tenants. The so-called "rent-to-sales ratio" serves as an objective benchmark for evaluating retail real estate on the basis of performance data or performance expectations. This focus also runs counter to the prevailing practice of calculating or justifying rental cash flow using seemingly comparable rent levels (tied to a specific time point) that are, in actual fact, of limited applicability. A focus on the new definition and aforementioned aspects ensure that the core investment requirement of sustainability is met. The better the rent is adjusted to the objective turnover potential of the tenants, the more secure the rental income. Securing of value-stable rents through asset management In contrast to the prevailing and often erroneous view that long-term rental contracts offer security, the GfK definition holds that retail real estate can also be secure independently of rental contract partners. Assuming that the location achieves the required turnover potential and the real estate object realizes the necessary market-share potential, a short-term re-letting can even turn out to be more advantageous for the profile of the real estate object and have a positive impact on the rental income. The ongoing subletting and updating of the offering as well as the safeguarding of the total rental income must be secured through corresponding management measures. The more effective the asset management, the greater the assurance of the quality of the renting situation. Applications of the re-definition of the "core investment strategy" The GfK definition of the core investment strategy provides investment managers, committees and boards with a significantly larger selection of products. Investors can get a better foothold in the present security-oriented atmosphere of the retail sector by taking advantage of the untapped potential beyond the large cities focused on by adherents to the mainstream core investment strategy. Profitable endeavors can also be realized in secondary or third-tier cities, which may offer even better opportunity-risk profiles than some city-center real estate. A thorough location and market analysis can offer assurances for the security of these previously unviable investments in secondary locations that more than meet the requirements of the core investment strategy. page 5 of 6

6 As part of the spring appraisal of the real estate advisory board for the Immobilien Zeitung (Real Estate Magazine) and ZIA, GfK GeoMarketing evaluated second-tier locations - i.e., small and mid-sized cities with 40,000 to 75,000 inhabitants, which were not previously a point of focus among core-strategy investors. Of these around 160 locations, approximately 90 cities offer above-average purchasing power 5 and approximately 80 offer above-average purchasing power absorption 6 (retail centrality). These findings demonstrate stable conditions with regard to demand. However, approximately 75 of these cities that have good to very good purchasing power and/or good to very good purchasing power absorption do not offer any modern retail real estate objects worthy of investment. These locations open up a wide field of future core investments for project developers, retailers, investors and banks. page 6 of 6