Legal firms rightsizing leads to uptick in vacancy The Greater Cleveland office market started 2016 on a sour note, as the office sector gave back space for the first time in 12 months, ending the first quarter with 9,788 square feet of negative net absorption. The negative absorption pushed the vacancy rate up 10 basis points from the previous quarter, to 17.8% for all property classes. The vast majority of the loss in tenancy occurred in two submarkets, the Central Business District (CBD) and West submarkets combined, for more than 110,000 square feet of negative absorption. The Class A market accounted for nearly 100,000 square feet of negative net absorption, while the Class B and Class C markets posted strong tenancy gains, led by the Class B market, which netted 76,657 square feet in the first quarter of 2016. Current Conditions Class A market gives back space Rental rates tick upward New construction breaks ground in East submarket IBM Corporation plans move downtown Medical Mutual of Ohio aligns real estate obligations in CBD and suburbs Market Analysis Asking Rent and Vacancy $22 $20 2 22% Although the region s vacancy rate increased, rents continued to climb in first-quarter 2016, up $0.11/SF to end the quarter at $17.69/SF. The average rental rate in Greater Cleveland has increased $0.24/SF since the start of 2014 and $0.05/SF within the past year. Specifically, the Class A market registered strong rental growth, as rents increased $0.14/SF from the previous quarter and $0.20/SF since first-quarter of 2014. $18 18% $16 14% $14 1 $12 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Average Asking Rent (Price/SF) Vacancy (%) CBD Gives Back Space As stated above, the CBD accounted for a majority of the negative absorption, giving back 101,801 square feet this quarter. The first quarter of 2016 is only the third quarter since the end of 2013 in which the CBD did not post tenancy gains. The increase in vacancy in the first quarter is due to law firms rightsizing into smaller, more efficient footprints, a trend that we have seen nationally. First, BakerHostetler completed its long-anticipated move out of PNC Tower into two new CBD locations. The net moves saved the law firm roughly 15,000 square feet after vacating 165,000 square feet at PNC Tower. The majority of the employees now occupy 115,000 square feet at Key Tower on five floors, while the back office employees saved money by moving to the less-expensive One Cleveland Center. Also at Key Tower, Thompson Hine LLP agreed to remain in the landmark building, albeit with a much smaller footprint. The law firm agreed to lease 125,120 square feet at the end of 2015, moving out of 165,903 square feet this quarter. Thompson Hine LLP did not downsize its workforce in order to reduce its footprint, rather the firm improved efficiency. Staying in the CBD, but moving away from the legal sector, OM Group vacated the 13th floor of the Ernst & Young Tower in early 2016. Net Absorption Square Feet, Hundred Thousands 12 9 6 3 0-3 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Market Summary Current Quarter Prior Quarter Year Ago Period 12 Month Forecast Total Inventory 39MSF 39MSF 39MSF Vacancy Rate 17.8% 17.7% 19. Quarterly Net Absorption -9,788 127,349 50,595 Average Asking Rent $17.69 $17.58 $17.64 Under Construction 47,000 0 0 Deliveries 0 0 0
OM Group was acquired by Apollo Global Management in June 2015, and the new ownership group will move the former Northeast Ohio-based company to St. Louis. OM Group s shuttering in Cleveland is the first time the Class A tower has lost a tenant since construction was completed in 2013. Turning to positive moves in the CBD, IBM Corporation agreed to lease the top three floors, 42,000 square feet, at 1111 Superior Avenue. The technology company also obtained a right of first refusal for the entire 25th floor, comprising 25,000 square feet of space. IBM Corp. plans to move into the space, previously occupied by Eaton Corporation, in early summer 2016. IBM will occupy the 42,000 square feet with a local data analytics company, Explorys, which IBM acquired in 2015. Explorys, a former Cleveland Clinic spinoff, has become part of IBM Corp. s Watson Health division. The new space will also house another unidentified company that IBM recently purchased. Possible Buyer Emerges For Key Tower The flurry of recent moves at Key Tower may serve as a precursor to a much larger deal in the summer of 2016. Columbia Property Trust, Inc., the current owner of the 1.3 million-square-foot building, announced its intentions to sell the asset in September 2015. A potential buyer emerged in the first quarter of this year, and Columbia Property Trust, Inc. is in active negotiations with a number of buyers, including local landlord Scott Wolstein. Should Scott Wolstein and his partners reach an agreement with Columbia Property Trust, Inc., Key Tower would become the third Class A office building the former DDR Corp CEO would control in the CBD. Wolstein currently owns interest in the US Bank Centre in Playhouse Square and the Ernst & Young Tower in the Flats East Bank District. Eastside Office Breaks Ground The first new multi-tenant office building since 2013 broke ground in the East submarket, at Chagrin Highlands. The 42,000-square-foot, Class A Market Summary Square Feet, Hundred Thousands building at 3900 Park East Drive is expected to deliver in third-quarter 2016, at which time it will welcome its first tenant, Glenmede Trust Company. The financial planning firm agreed to anchor the building in 2015. As one office development broke ground in the first quarter, the longrumored Intesa project in University Circle pivoted away from office tenants toward residential users. In early 2016, Midwest Development Partners reconfigured the project to decrease the total planned office space and increase the number of residential units. The new project, named Centric, will boast 270 residential units, while the amount of office space decreased from 150,000 square feet to approximately 28,000 square feet of street-level retail and office space. First New multi-tenant office building since 2014 broke ground Moving away from new construction but staying in the East submarket, CoverMyMeds leased and occupied 15,000 square feet at Metropolitan Plaza in Highland Hills in first-quarter 2016. The healthcare software company vacated 5,000 square feet at 8866 Commerce Boulevard in Twinsburg. CoverMyMeds needed the additional space as it plans to hire 25 new employees in 2016, growing its Northeast Ohio workforce from 50 to 75. The move by CoverMyMeds, in addition to other activity in the submarket, caused vacancy to decline 50 basis points from 15.7% in fourth-quarter 2015 to 15.2% this quarter. The East submarket has tightened considerably since first-quarter 2015, when the vacancy rate was 19.2%. In the past year, the East submarket has added more than 250,000 square feet of tenancy gains. Cleveland Market Vacancy Rate Percent (%) 12 9 6 3 3 24% 18% 12% 28% 24% 2 1 0-3 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 12% 8% 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 Net Absorption Deliveries Vacancy A B 2
Medical Mutual Plans Influx Medical Mutual of Ohio agreed to lease 89,000 square feet at 15855 West Sprague Road in the Southwest submarket in first-quarter 2016. The insurer will move its Strongsville location from 17800 Royalton Road, where it occupies 125,000 square feet, in third-quarter 2016. The new lease term is four years at West Sprague Road, and it allows the Medical Mutual of Ohio to better align its real estate throughout Northeast Ohio. Medical Mutual of Ohio agreed to lease 89,000 square feet Around the same time as the 89,000-square-foot lease expires, the company s obligation to its downtown headquarters on East Ninth Street will also expire. The moves made by Medical Mutual of Ohio create leverage for the company, should it return to the market in 2020. Many developers and landlords have speculated the Medical Mutual headquarters building is well-suited for the increasingly popular office-toresidential conversion. Downtown To Remain Busy in 2016 Looking ahead to the rest of 2016, the CBD market is expected to remain very active in leasing, sales and redevelopment. Beyond the pending sale of Key Tower, a number of tenants are still in the market looking for space, as their current locations are slated for redevelopment from office to residential in late 2016 or early 2017. As those tenants vacate historic downtown buildings, like the former Huntington Building, or the Leader and Halle buildings, vacancy will drop, as the buildings will not look to backfill the space with office tenants; instead, the buildings will undergo renovations to residential use. Lease/User Transactions Tenant Building Submarket Type Square Feet Medical Mutual of Ohio 1588 W. Sprague Road Southwest Direct 89,000 IBM Corporation 1111 Superior Ave CBD Direct 43,000 ViaSat 5990 W. Creek Rd South Direct 31,341 CoverMyMeds 22901 Millcreek Blvd East Direct 15,000 Accenture 1440 W. 10 th St CBD Direct 7,000 Select Sales Transactions Building Submarket Sale Price Price/SF Square Feet 323 W Lakeside Ave CBD $6,500,000 $75 86,500 34501 Aurora Rd East $1,650,000 $63 26,000 2003 Saint Clair Ave CBD $650,000 $51 12,736 15420 Detroit Rd West $1,100,000 $48 23,000 1255 Euclid Ave CBD $7,100,000 $37 193,602 3
www.ngkf.com Submarket Statistics Total Under Total Qtr YTD Class A Class B Average Inventory Construction Vacancy Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) CBD Total 21,309,799 0 20.5% -101,801-101,801 $21.84 $17.32 $18.03 East 7,682,367 47,000 15.2% 40,491 40,491 $21.59 $17.54 $18.23 South 5,000,465 0 11.9% 47,411 47,411 $20.13 $16.61 $18.25 Southwest 1,430,804 0 12.9% 14,764 14,764 $18.85 $13.40 $16.25 West 3,491,380 0 16.9% -10,653-10,653 $17.01 $13.20 $13.81 Suburban Total 17,605,016 47,000 14.4% 92,013 92,013 $19.88 $16.12 $17.16 Market 38,914,815 47,000 17.8% -9,788-9,788 $20.97 $16.86 $17.69 4
Economic Conditions The Greater Cleveland economy continued to add more jobs in firstquarter 2016, as total payroll employment grew in February 0.8% yearover-year. Much of the gains are due to the uptick in hiring in the leisure and hospitality sectors. For the third consecutive quarter, the leisure and hospitality industry posted strong gains with 3.8% growth from 2015. On the other hand, the mining, logging and construction and manufacturing sectors have contracted 10.2% and 3.1%, respectively, from 2015. In fact, while other industries are expected to recoup jobs lost during the Great Recession, manufacturing job growth is expected to be flat over the foreseeable future. Turning to office-occupying sectors, financial activities and professional and business services posted 0.2% and 0. year-over-year growth, respectively. Conversely, the information sector contracted 2.1% yearover-year. Employment By Industry Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor 3.2% 12.1% 11.2% 3. 9. 16.5% 17.9% 7.3% 5.8% 13.3% Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Unemployment Rate Payroll Employment Seasonally Adjusted 1 8% 4% 2% Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 United States United States Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor Consumer Price Index (CPI) All Items, 12-Month % Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100 4% 2% -2% -4% Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 United States Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor Employment Growth by Industry Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Feb 2016 12-Month % Change Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Mining/Logging/Construction Manufacturing Trade/Transportation/Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof & Bus Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government -12. -8. -4. 0. 4. 8. 5
Cleveland 1350 Euclid Avenue Suite 300 Cleveland, OH 44115 216.861.3000 Newmark Grubb Knight Frank United States Office Locations Gar Heintzelman Research Analyst 216.453.3052 gheintzelman@ngkf.com Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at www.ngkf.com/research All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains.