Investor Presentation February 2015

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Transcription:

Investor Presentation February 2015 1

Forward-Looking Statements In addition to historical information, this presentation contains forward-looking statements under the federal securities law. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the industry and markets in which Camden operates, management's beliefs, and assumptions made by management. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Factors which may cause the Company s actual results or performance to differ materially from those contemplated by forward-looking statements are described under the heading Risk Factors in Camden s Annual Report on Form 10-K and in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements made in this presentation represent management s opinions as of the date of this presentation, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events. 2

Outlook for Multifamily Industry Same property net operating income ( NOI ) projected above long-term trend for next several years Strong demand from: Growing Echo Boom population with high propensity to rent Large share of jobs going to the 20-34 age cohort Pent-up demand from young adults living at home or with roommates Homeownership rate declining steadily and negative sentiment toward home ownership New supply still being met by strong demand Echo Boom Population Aged 20-34 (millions) 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 Favorable Demographics Trends* Over 60% of this age group choose to rent 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year-Year Change in 20-34 Employment (000) 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Young Adults Steadily Finding Employment* 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Change in U.S. Population Aged (20-34) millions 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Pent-Up Demand From Young Adults Living At Home* Potential Pent-Up Moveouts from Home 1.4M more young adults than usual living with Estimated parents in 2013 Home Move-Backs 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 *Source: Witten Advisors 3

Negative Sentiment Toward Home Ownership Many people choosing to rent rather than buy Moveout rates from apartment residents purchasing homes have declined dramatically (23% at peak vs. 14% in 2014 for Camden s portfolio) Strong credit scores and significant down payments now required by mortgage lenders Young adults carrying significant amount of student debt Share of U.S. Households Who Own Home 70% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% Homeownership Rate Continues to Decline 1Q90 4Q90 3Q91 2Q92 1Q93 4Q93 3Q94 2Q95 1Q96 4Q96 3Q97 2Q98 1Q99 4Q99 3Q00 2Q01 1Q02 4Q02 3Q03 2Q04 1Q05 4Q05 3Q06 2Q07 1Q08 4Q08 3Q09 2Q10 1Q11 4Q11 3Q12 2Q13 1Q14 4Q14 4Q14* 63.9% *Source: Witten Advisors seasonally adjusted homeownership rate 4

Manageable Levels of Supply Multifamily starts expected to peak in early 2015 then begin to decline Rising construction costs and interest rates make future development starts more challenging Single family rentals don t compete with well-located, amenity-rich apartment homes Multifamily Starts 5+ Rental Starts, trailing 12 months 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Actual Starts Projected 0 1Q92 1Q93 1Q94 1Q95 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 Deficit of 450,000 starts from 2009-2012 Source: Witten Advisors 5

Demand projected to exceed supply in most markets 2-year average ratio of estimated job growth to multifamily completions (2015-2016) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Long-term Equilibrium Ratio of 5:1 6 Ratio of Jobs to Completions 0.0 Las Vegas Orange County Phoenix Orlando Los Angeles Tampa San Diego Atlanta SE Florida Raleigh CPT Average Dallas Denver Charlotte Washington, DC Austin Houston Source: Witten Advisors and Axiometrics

Strategy & Portfolio 7

Camden s Strategy Maximize portfolio cash flow growth Create value through development and redevelopment Recycle capital through acquisitions and dispositions with minimal dilution Maintain strong balance sheet with low leverage 8

Camden s Operating Portfolio 166 communities 57,832 apartment homes 12 years Average age $1,247 4Q14 Average monthly rental rate per home 95.7% Same property occupancy (as of 2/22/2015) 9

Geographic Diversity & Market Balance Las Vegas 6.2% Denver 4.2% Washington, DC 16.5% LA/Orange County 6.6% San Diego/Inland Empire 3.8% Phoenix 3.7% Dallas 6.3% Austin 2.9% Houston 13.1% Corpus Christi 3.1% Atlanta 5.8% Tampa 6.6% Raleigh 4.2% Charlotte 4.9% Orlando 5.1% Southeast Florida 7.0% Percentage of NOI by Market 4Q14 Actual (Including pro-rata share of NOI from JV communities) 10

Growth Drives Results Top 25 Metro Areas For Estimated Gains: 2013-2018 Employment Growth (in thousands) Rank Metro area Gain 1 New York-Wayne NY-NJ 442.7 2 Houston-Baytown TX 428.6 3 Los Angeles-Long Beach CA 396.6 4 Dallas-Plano TX 375.0 5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs GA 320.2 6 Chicago-Naperville IL 269.5 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ 236.9 8 Seattle-Bellevue WA 193.1 9 Orlando FL 161.9 10 Austin-Round Rock TX 161.3 11 Denver-Aurora CO 153.0 12 Washington-Arlington DC-VA-MD-WV 145.9 13 Minneapolis-St. Paul MN-WI 143.9 14 Fort Worth-Arlington TX 139.7 15 Santa Ana-Anaheim CA 139.6 16 San Francisco-San Mateo CA 133.6 17 San Diego-Carlsbad CA 132.8 18 Tampa-St. Petersburg FL 132.3 19 San Antonio TX 129.5 20 Philadelphia PA 129.1 21 Riverside-San Bernardino CA 126.6 22 Miami-Miami Beach FL 124.1 23 Las Vegas-Paradise NV 121.8 24 Portland-Vancouver OR-WA 121.6 25 San Jose-Sunnyvale CA 116.9 Population Growth (in thousands) Over 96% of Camden s NOI is derived from these markets Rank Metro area Gain 1 Houston-Baytown TX 570.2 2 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ 495.6 3 Dallas-Plano TX 478.6 4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs GA 465.4 5 Los Angeles-Long Beach CA 376.7 6 New York-Wayne NY-NJ 335.0 7 Orlando FL 298.7 8 Washington-Arlington DC-VA-MD-WV 273.2 9 Riverside-San Bernardino CA 261.5 10 Austin-Round Rock TX 248.5 11 Fort Worth-Arlington TX 246.0 12 Las Vegas-Paradise NV 235.0 13 San Antonio TX 219.9 14 Charlotte-Gastonia NC-SC 213.9 15 Denver-Aurora CO 205.9 16 San Diego-Carlsbad CA 186.3 17 Seattle-Bellevue WA 170.1 18 West Palm Beach-Boynton Beach FL 168.0 19 Tampa-St. Petersburg FL 161.0 20 Minneapolis-St. Paul MN-WI 159.4 21 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach FL 148.5 22 Miami-Miami Beach FL 145.1 23 Santa Ana-Anaheim CA 142.8 24 Raleigh-Cary NC 136.9 25 Chicago-Naperville IL 124.1 Source: Moody s Analytics December 2014 Highlighted represents Camden markets 11

New Leases/Renewals Average change in same property new lease and renewal rates vs. expiring lease rates when signed 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15* *1Q15 Preliminary Data through 2/28/2015 New Leases Renewals 12

Rents Continue To Rise Average Monthly In-Place Rents (Camden s Same Property Portfolio) $1,240 $1,230 $1,227 $1,220 $1,210 $1,205 $1,200 $1,190 $1,188 $1,180 $1,175 $1,170 $1,160 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 13

Household Income Growing Average Household Income for Camden s Residents (Same Property Portfolio) $90,000 $88,000 $87,600 $86,000 $84,600 $84,000 $83,000 $82,000 $82,000 $80,000 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 14

Rent-to-Income Ratios Favorable Average Rent-to-Income Ratio for Camden s Residents (Same Property Portfolio) 18% 17% 17.2% 17.2% 17.1% 16.8% 16% 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 15

Same Property Occupancy (as of 2/22/15) 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 16 Southeast Florida Dallas Charlotte Phoenix Las Vegas Southern California Denver Orlando Tampa Austin CPT Average Houston Raleigh Atlanta Washington, DC Occupancy by Market

4-Year Average Same Property Growth vs. Peers Revenue Growth (2011-2014 Average) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ESS CPT EQR PPS AVB UDR AIV MAA AEC HME NOI Growth (2011-2014 Average) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ESS CPT EQR AVB UDR PPS AIV HME MAA AEC Source: Company Financial Reports 17

2014 Reported Same Property Growth vs. Peers Revenue Growth (2014) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ESS CPT AIV UDR EQR AVB MAA HME PPS AEC NOI Growth (2014) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ESS EQR AIV UDR CPT MAA AVB AEC PPS HME Source: Company Financial Reports 18

2015 Expected Same Property Growth vs. Peers Revenue Growth (Midpoint of Guidance Range) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ESS CPT AIV EQR AVB UDR MAA AEC HME PPS NOI Growth (Midpoint of Guidance Range) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ESS AIV EQR UDR AVB CPT HME MAA AEC PPS Source: Company Financial Reports 19

2015 Guidance EARNINGS AS OF 1/28/2015 FFO per share $4.36 - $4.56 EPS per share $1.47- $1.67 SAME PROPERTY PERFORMANCE Revenue Growth 3.75% - 4.75% Expense Growth 4.50% - 5.00% NOI Growth 3.00% - 5.00% Average Occupancy 95.2% TRANSACTIONS Acquisitions Dispositions Development Starts $100 - $300 million $100 - $300 million $100 - $300 million 20

Acquisitions, Dispositions & Development 21

2014/2015 Acquisition and Disposition Activity Year Total Average Monthly Purchase Closing Acquisitions Location Built Homes Rent per unit Price Date Camden Fourth Ward Atlanta, GA 2014 276 $1,587 $63M 10/29/2014 Year Total Average Monthly Sale Closing Dispositions Location Built Homes Rent per unit Price Date Camden River Atlanta, GA 1997 352 $1,011 $53M 11/10/2014 Camden Glen Lakes Dallas, TX 1979 424 936 $47M 11/18/2014 Camden Club Orlando, FL 1986 436 956 $52M 12/4/2014 Camden Lakeside Tampa, FL 1986 228 796 $22M 12/9/2014 Camden Pinehurst Charlotte, NC 1967 407 914 $45M 12/18/2014 Camden Ridgecrest Austin, TX 1995 284 855 $29M 1/15/2015 Camden Bayside Tampa, FL 1988 832 846 $85M 1/30/2015 Total 1985 2,963 $908 $333M Year Total Average Monthly Sale Closing Dispositions (JV) Location Built Homes Rent per unit Price Date Camden Braun Station San Antonio, TX 2006 240 $871 $22M 2/12/2014 Camden Piney Point Houston, TX 2004 318 1,211 $44M 2/27/2014 Total 2005 558 $1,099 $66M 22

Development Activity Completed and stabilized 11 communities with 3,098 apartment homes since 2011 Total cost of $494M Estimated value creation of $185M or $2.03 per share to NAV 15 communities currently under construction or in lease-up Total cost of $1.1B Estimated value creation of over $300M or $3.34 per share to NAV $543M additional projects in future development pipeline 23

Current Development Pipeline ($ in millions) Estimated Total Total Initial Construction Stabilized % Wholly-Owned Projects Location Homes Cost Occupancy Completion Operations Leased (1) Camden Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL 261 $52 3Q14 4Q14 3Q15 81% Camden La Frontera Round Rock, TX 300 36 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 75% Camden Lamar Heights Austin, TX 314 47 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15 62% Camden Foothills Scottsdale, AZ 220 44 3Q14 4Q14 3Q15 55% Camden Flatirons Denver, CO 424 78 2Q14 2Q15 3Q16 42% Camden Paces Atlanta, GA 379 110 2Q14 3Q15 4Q16 31% Camden Hayden Tempe, AZ 234 48 4Q14 2Q15 3Q15 17% Camden Chandler Chandler, AZ 380 75 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 5% Camden Glendale Glendale, CA 303 115 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 - Camden Gallery Charlotte, NC 323 58 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 - Camden Victory Park Dallas, TX 423 82 3Q15 1Q16 1Q18 - The Camden Los Angeles, CA 287 145 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 - Camden Lincoln Station Denver, CO 267 56 4Q16 2Q17 1Q18 - Camden McGowen Station Houston, TX 315 90 2Q17 4Q17 1Q19 - Subtotal 4,430 $1,036 Joint Venture Project Camden Southline Charlotte, NC 266 $48 1Q15 3Q15 4Q15 6% Grand Total 4,696 $1,084 (1) As of 2/22/2015 24

Development Camden Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL Camden Foothills Scottsdale, AZ Camden La Frontera Round Rock, TX Camden Lamar Heights Austin, TX Camden Flatirons Denver, CO Camden Paces Atlanta, GA 25

Development Camden Hayden Tempe, AZ Camden Glendale Glendale, CA Camden Gallery Charlotte, NC Camden Chandler Chandler, AZ Camden Victory Park Dallas, TX The Camden Los Angeles, CA Camden Lincoln Station Denver, CO Camden McGowen Station Houston, TX Camden Southline (JV) Charlotte, NC 26

Future Development Projects ($ in millions) Total Projected Estimated Project Location Homes Cost Camden NoMa II Washington, DC 405 $116 Camden Shady Grove Rockville, MD 457 115 Camden Buckhead Atlanta, GA 336 80 Camden Conte I/II Houston, TX 519 170 Camden Atlantic Plantation, FL 286 62 Total 2,003 $543 27

Capital Structure & Liquidity 28

Strong Capital Structure ($ in millions as of 12/31/14) Equity* $6,735 Mortgages $906 Senior Unsecured Notes $1,838 5.4x debt-to-ebitda 4.4% weighted average interest rate on all debt 92.4% fixed-rate debt 67.0% unsecured debt Unsecured Lines of Credit $0 Total Market Capitalization = $9.5 Billion 6.3 years weighted average maturity of debt Manageable debt maturities over next several years *Based on closing share price of $73.84 on 12/31/2014 29

Manageable Debt Maturities Future scheduled maturities excluding Line of Credit (as of 12/31/14) ($ in millions) $1,600 $1,400 $1,416.8 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 $646.5 $251.8 $249.0 $177.4 $2.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Thereafter 30

Liquidity (as of 12/31/14) $500M availability under unsecured credit facilities $313M equity issuance available under ATM program Sufficient liquidity to meet near-term capital needs Unencumbered asset pool of approximately $6.0B 31

Summary 32

Why Camden? Experienced management team with proven history of performance and sound business plan Consistent long-term focus and commitment to high-growth markets Strong balance sheet with ample liquidity Well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities Ranked #11 by FORTUNE Magazine as one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For in America 33

Definitions and Disclosures FFO The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts ( NAREIT ) currently defines FFO as net income (computed in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP")), excluding gains (or losses) associated with previously depreciated operating properties, real estate depreciation and amortization, impairments of depreciable assets, and adjustments for unconsolidated joint ventures. Our calculation of diluted FFO also assumes conversion of all potentially dilutive securities, including certain non-controlling interests, which are convertible into common shares. We consider FFO to be an appropriate supplemental measure of operating performance because, by excluding gains or losses on dispositions of operating properties, and depreciation, FFO can assist in the comparison of the operating performance of a company s real estate investments between periods or to different companies. Net Operating Income (NOI) NOI is defined by the Company as total property income less property operating and maintenance expenses less real estate taxes. The Company considers NOI to be an appropriate supplemental measure of operating performance to net income attributable to common shareholders because it reflects the operating performance of our communities without allocation of corporate level property management overhead or general and administrative costs. EBITDA EBITDA is defined by the Company as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, including net operating income from discontinued operations, excluding equity in (income) loss of joint ventures, (gain) loss on sale of unconsolidated joint venture interests, gain on acquisition of controlling interest in joint ventures, gain on sale of discontinued operations, net of tax, and income (loss) allocated to non-controlling interests. The Company considers EBITDA to be an appropriate supplemental measure of operating performance to net income attributable to common shareholders because it represents income before non-cash depreciation and the cost of debt, and excludes gains or losses from property dispositions. 34

Non-GAAP Reconciliations Expected FFO Expected FFO is calculated in a method consistent with historical FFO, and is considered an appropriate supplemental measure of expected operating performance when compared to expected earnings per common share (EPS). A reconciliation of the ranges provided for diluted EPS to expected FFO per diluted share is provided below: 2015 Range Low High Expected earnings per common share - diluted $1.47 $1.67 Expected real estate depreciation 2.74 2.74 Expected adjustments for unconsolidated joint ventures 0.10 0.10 Expected income allocated to non-controlling interests 0.05 0.05 Expected FFO per share - diluted $4.36 $4.56 35

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