HIA GWA Kitchens & Bathrooms Past Growth and Future Prospects
Housing Industry Association Kitchens and Bathrooms Report Past Growth and Future Prospects March 2018 HIA Economics 79 Constitution Avenue CAMPBELL ACT 2612 http://economics.hia.com.au Cover photo courtesy GWA Bathrooms & Kitchens Disclaimer: This publication is produced by HIA Economics based on information available at the time of publishing. All opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. Neither HIA nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report. Confidential Information: This report is confidential to the addressee. It may not be copied or transmitted in whole or in part in any form, including by photocopying, facsimile, scanning P1 HIA or by GWA manual KITCHENS or electronic AND means. BATHROOMS Multiple REPORT copies can - PAST be supplied GROWTH by arrangement/for AND FUTURE PROSPECTS an additional charge. Unauthorised copying is a breach of HIA s copyright and may make you liable to pay damages. 2016/17
Contents Economic Backdrop... 7 The Kitchen Industry... 15 The Bathroom Industry... 19 The Kitchen and Bathroom Industries: Activities, Attitudes, and Averages... 21 New South Wales... 46 1) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes... 46 2) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 47 Victoria... 48 3) Kitchen Installations in New Homes... 48 4) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 49 Queensland... 50 5) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes... 50 6) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 51 South Australia... 52 7) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes... 52 8) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 53 Western Australia... 54 9) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes... 54 10) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 55 Tasmania... 56 11) Kitchens and Bathroom Installations in New Homes... 56 12) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 57 Northern Territory... 58 13) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes... 58 14) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 59 Australian Capital Territory... 60 15) Kitchens and Bathrooms Installations in New Homes... 60 16) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations... 61 17) APPENDIX A: Methodology Underlying Kitchen and Bathroom Forecasts... 62 18) APPENDIX C: Additional information regarding survey respondents... 70 P2 HIA GWA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
List of Figures and Tables Figure 1: GDP Growth... 7 Figure 2: Unemployment Rates... 8 Figure 3: Building Approvals - Total... 9 Figure 4: Building Approvals Houses and Units... 9 Figure 5: Median Dwelling Price Capital Cities... 10 Figure 6: Investment in Renovations in Australia... 11 Figure 7: Renovations Investment by State... 11 Figure 8: Estimated Number of Houses out to 2030... 12 Figure 9: Trade Availability of Ceramic Tiler s, Australia... 13 Figure 10: Trade Availability of Electricians, Australia... 13 Figure 11: Trade Availability of Joiners, Australia... 14 Figure 12: Trade Availability of Plumbers, Australia... 14 Figure 13: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Australia... 17 Figure 14: Notional Demand for Kitchen Renovations, Australia... 18 Figure 15: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Australia... 19 Figure 16: Notional Demand for Bathroom Renovations, Australia... 20 Figure 17: Kitchen jobs engaged by:... 21 Figure 18: Number of kitchen jobs completed in 2017... 22 Figure 19: Expectations for activity levels over the next 12 months... 22 Figure 20: Proportion of jobs involving installation of a kitchen in a new home... 23 Figure 21: Time to install a kitchen in a new home... 23 Figure 22: Average value of kitchen installed in new home... 24 Figure 23: More expensive to renovate or install a kitchen in a new home... 25 Figure 24: Average age of kitchens... 25 Figure 25: Most common type of renovation jobs done for kitchens... 26 Figure 26: Size of kitchens... 26 Figure 27: Time it takes to install a kitchen renovation... 27 Figure 28: Extent of material specification... 27 Figure 29: Average value of kitchen renovation by state... 28 Figure 30: Average value of kitchen renovation... 28 Figure 31: Jobs that complement kitchen and bathroom work... 29 Figure 32: Sources of kitchen products... 29 Figure 33: Why the preference for Domestic... 30 Figure 34: Why the preference - Imported... 30 Figure 35: Domestic or Imported Product use... 31 Figure 36: Source of Kitchen Components... 32 Figure 37: Use of domestically produced goods... 33 Figure 38: Bathroom jobs engaged by:... 34 Figure 39: Number of bathrooms completed in 2017... 34 Figure 40: Expectations for activity levels over the next 12 months... 35 Figure 41: Proportion of jobs involving installation of bathrooms in new homes... 35 Figure 42: Time to install a bathroom in a new home... 36 Figure 43: Average value bathroom installed... 36 Figure 44: Frequency of updating a bathroom... 37 Figure 45: Most common bathroom jobs... 38 Figure 46: Bathroom size... 38 Figure 47: Time to complete a bathroom renovation... 39 Figure 48: Average spend on bathroom renovation... 39 Figure 49: Number of bathrooms... 40 P3 HIA GWA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
Figure 50: Cost comparison between bathrooms for new homes and renovations... 41 Figure 51: Extent of material specification... 41 Figure 52: Use of domestically produced and imported goods... 42 Figure 53: origins of products used in bathrooms... 42 Figure 54: Change in use of domestically produced goods... 43 Figure 55: Basis of supply and distribution... 43 Figure 56: Origin of products supplied and distributed... 44 Figure 57: Three year supply and distribution prediction... 44 Figure 58: Location of manufacturing... 45 Figure 59: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes in New South Wales... 46 Figure 60: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, New South Wales... 47 Figure 61: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations in New South Wales... 47 Figure 62: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Victoria... 48 Figure 63: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Victoria... 48 Figure 64: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, Victoria... 49 Figure 65: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Queensland... 50 Figure 66: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Queensland... 50 Figure 67: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations in Queensland... 51 Figure 68: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, South Australia... 52 Figure 69: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, South Australia... 52 Figure 70: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations in South Australia... 53 Figure 71: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Western Australia... 54 Figure 72: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Western Australia... 55 Figure 73: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, Western Australia... 55 Figure 74: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Tasmania... 56 Figure 75: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Tasmania... 57 Figure 76: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, Tasmania... 57 Figure 77: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory... 58 Figure 78: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory... 58 Figure 79: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, NT... 59 Figure 80: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, ACT... 60 Figure 81: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, ACT... 60 Figure 82: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, ACT... 61 Figure 83: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes in New South Wales... 64 Figure 84: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, New South Wales... 64 Figure 85: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Victoria... 64 Figure 86: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Victoria... 65 Figure 87: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Queensland... 65 Figure 88: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Queensland... 65 Figure 89: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, South Australia... 66 Figure 90: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, South Australia... 66 Figure 91: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Western Australia... 66 Figure 92: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Western Australia... 67 Figure 93: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Tasmania... 67 Figure 94: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Tasmania... 67 Figure 95: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory... 68 Figure 96: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory... 68 Figure 97: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, ACT... 68 Figure 98: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, ACT... 69 Figure 99: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes in Australia... 69 Figure 100: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Australia... 69 P4 HIA GWA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
Figure 101: Locations of the majority of work?... 70 Figure 102: Main activities of business... 70 Figure 103: Description of work done by respondents - Kitchens... 71 Figure 104: Description of work done by respondents - Bathrooms... 71 Figure 105: Description of work done by respondents - kitchens and bathrooms... 72 Figure 106: Description of work done by respondents - general building and renovation... 72 Figure 107: Description of kitchens and bathroom renovation jobs... 73 Figure 108: Description of work done by respondents - materials/products/appliance manufacturing... 73 Figure 109: Description of work done by respondents - supply/distribution... 74 Figure 110: Range of average dollar value of a kitchen installed in a new home by state... 74 Figure 111: Range of average dollar value of a kitchen installed in a renovation by state... 74 Figure 112: Range of average dollar value of a bathroom installed in a new home by state... 75 Figure 113: Range of average dollar value of a bathroom installed in a renovation by state... 75 P5 HIA GWA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
OVERVIEW After reaching a peak back in 2016 new home starts have declined over the past year. Demand for kitchens and bathrooms from the new homes side of the market has followed this lead. The total number of kitchen installations in new homes is estimated to have declined by 5.7 per cent in 2016/17 and is projected to decline by a further 2.5 per cent in. The residential building cycle is expected to decline by a further 14.8 per cent in 2018/19. Whereas the number of kitchens declined during the year, the total number of bathroom installations in new homes increased by 4.4 per cent during 2016/17 because of an increase in the average number of bathrooms per dwelling. Installations are projected to decline by 7.6 per cent in and by a further 14.4 per cent in 2018/19. Based on notional demand, HIA estimates that there is a total pool of 154,085 potential kitchen renovation jobs in and 154,759 in 2018/19. HIA estimates that there is a total pool of around 231,498 potential bathroom renovation jobs in and 233,083 in 2018/19. The latest HIA Kitchens and Bathrooms survey found the average value of a kitchen installed in new homes to be $21,132, a little lower than the $21,840 average value of a kitchen installed as part of renovations. The survey found the average value for a bathroom installed in new homes to be $16,430 compared to the average value for a bathroom installed as part of a renovation at $17,522. The HIA Kitchens and Bathrooms survey found a large majority of kitchen renovations (65 per cent) were performed in homes within the 11 to 20 year age bracket. Of the total, 34 per cent were performed on kitchens in the 11 to 15 year age group. A further 31 per cent of renovations were performed on kitchens aged between 16 and 20 years. The survey found a large majority of bathroom renovations (68 per cent) were performed in homes in the 11 to 20 year age bracket. Of the total, 28 per cent were undertaken in homes in the 11 to 15 year age group. A further 40 per cent of bathroom renovations were performed on homes aged between 16 and 20 years. P6 HIA GWA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS