AUBURN BANKSTOWN BLACKTOWN HOLROYD PARRAMATTA THE HILLS West Central District Demographic & Economic Characteristics
Contents The West Central District 3 People 4 Population 4 Age Profile 6 Households and Dwellings 7 Household Types 7 Dwelling Types 9 Dwelling Completions 11 Housing Market Demand Areas 12 Employment and Economy 13 Jobs by Sector 13 Location of Jobs 14 Journeys to Work 15 Contribution to the Economy 16 About this document This document contains an overview of the population, household types, dwellings, employment and economy of the West Central District. This information forms part of the evidence base for district planning. This document contains data from a variety of sources including the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Transport for NSW - Bureau of Transport Statistics, and various research reports. February 2016 2
The West Central District The West Central District (Figure 1) comprises six local government areas: Auburn, Bankstown, Blacktown, Holroyd, Parramatta and The Hills. Figure 1: West Central District Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, A Plan for Growing Sydney, Sydney, p.115, Fig 28. 3
People Population A significant proportion of Sydney s population growth over the next 20 years is projected to occur in Western Sydney (West Central, South West and West Districts. In 2011 the West Central District had the largest population of the six Districts in the Sydney Metropolitan Area, being home to 1,036,850 people. Almost half a million more people are projected to be living in the District by 2031 (Figure 2). POPULATION CHANGE 478,650 MORE PEOPLE 1,036,850 1,266,850 1,515,500 AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH +1.9 % 2011 2021 2031 Figure 2: Population growth in the West Central District, 2011-2031 Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections: 2014 Final, Sydney. The population of the West Central District is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.9 per cent per year between 2011 and 2031 faster than the growth rate projected for the Sydney Metropolitan Area as a whole over the same time period (1.6 per cent per year) and second only to the South West District. Population growth is projected to occur unevenly across the District (Figure 3). Between 2011 and 2031 Blacktown and The Hills local government areas are projected to have the largest population increases. Combined, these two local government areas are projected to account for 55 per cent (264,850) of the projected 478,650 additional people living in the District by 2031. Auburn and The Hills local government areas are projected to experience the fastest average rates of population growth in the District, at 2.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent per year respectively between 2011 and 2031. 4
People Population 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 AUBURN BANKSTOWN BLACKTOWN HOLROYD PARRAMATTA THE HILLS LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 HISTORICAL POPULATION PROJECTED POPULATION Figure 3: Historical and projected population for local government areas in the West Central District, 1991 2031 Sources: Historical population data for 1991-2011: Australian Bureau of Statistics various years, Australian Demographic Statistics, cat No. 3101.0, Canberra. Projected population data for 2016-2031: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections: 2014 Final, Sydney. 5
People Age Profile The West Central District has a slightly younger population compared to the Sydney Metropolitan Area overall (Figure 4). Even so the population of the West Central District is projected to age. The number of residents aged 65 years or older is projected to more than double between 2011 and 2031. Over this 20 year period (2011 to 2031) Blacktown and The Hills are projected to see the biggest increases in the number of people aged 65 years and older. Although Auburn s older population is considerably smaller, it is also projected to more than double. By 2031 it is projected there will be an additional 260,000 people of working age (15 to 64 years) living in the West Central District. This group is likely to make up 64 per cent of the District s population compared with 68 per cent in 2011. 31 % 28 % 21 % 21 % 23 % 23 % 14 % 13 % 10 % 13% 1 % 2% 2011 2031 AGE GROUPS (YEARS) SYDNEY METROPOLITAN AREA COMPARISONS 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-84 19 % 19 % 14 % 12 % 31 % 28 % 24 % 24 % 11 % 14 % Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent. Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding. 85+ 2 % 3 % Figure 4: Age profiles of populations in the West Central District and Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011 and 2031 Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections: 2014 Final, Sydney. 6
Households and Dwellings Household Types In 2011 families (couples with children, couples only, single parent, multiple or other family) were the most common type of household in the West Central District, comprising 81 per cent of all households (Figure 5). 44 % 42 % 2011 2031 HOUSEHOLD TYPES SYDNEY METROPOLITAN AREA COMPARISONS 20 % 21 % COUPLE ONLY COUPLE WITH CHILDREN 16 % 12 % 13 % 4% 4 % 2 % SINGLE PARENT MULTIPLE + LONE PERSON GROUP OTHER FAMILY 22 % 22 % 37 % 35 % 11 % 11 % 4 % 4 % 22 % 24 % 5 % 4 % Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent. Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding. 18 % 3 % Figure 5: Household types in the West Central District and Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011 and 2031 Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections: 2014 Final, Sydney. In 2011 The Hills local government area had the largest proportion of couples with children households, followed by Blacktown and Bankstown (Figure 6). Projections also suggest considerable growth in the number of lone person households throughout the District between 2011 and 2031. 7
Households and Dwellings THE HILLS 8% 4% 10% 1% 24% PARRAMATTA 11% 4% 21% 23% 53% 4% 36% 15% BLACKTOWN 5% 19% 12% 16% AUBURN 6% 20% 14% 2% 46% 6% 41% HOLROYD 13% 4% 21% 19% 40% 2% BANKSTOWN 4% 19% 15% 18% 43% 2% Couple Only Lone Person Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent. Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding. Couple with Children Single Parent HOUSEHOLD TYPES Group Multiple & Other Family Figure 6: Household types in the local government areas of the West Central District, 2011 Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections: 2014 Final, Sydney. 8
Households and Dwellings Dwelling Types In 2011 separate houses were the dominant housing type in the West Central District (Figure 7), particularly in the greenfield (new land release) areas in The Hills and Blacktown local government areas (Figure 8). 13 % SEMI-DETACHED 17 % FLAT, UNIT or APARTMENT 13 % SEMI-DETACHED 30 % FLAT, UNIT or APARTMENT 70 % SEPARATE HOUSE West Central District Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent. Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding. DWELLING TYPES 57 % SEPARATE HOUSE Sydney Metropolitan Area Figure 7: Dwelling types in the West Central District and Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, 2011 Census of Population and Housing: Time Series Profile, Second Release, cat No. 2003.0, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics Definitions Semi-detached: These dwellings have their own private grounds and no other dwelling above or below them. They are either attached in some structural way to one or more dwellings or are separated from neighbouring dwellings by less than half a metre (includes row or terrace house, townhouse). A house or flat attached to a shop, office, factory or any other non-residential structure is included in this category. Flat, unit or apartment: This category includes all dwellings in blocks of flats, units or apartments. These dwellings do not have their own private grounds and usually share a common entrance foyer or stairwell. This category also includes flats attached to houses such as granny flats, and houses converted into two or more flats. Separate house: This is a house which is separated from other dwellings by at least half a metre. A separate house may have a flat attached to it, such as a granny flat or converted garage (the flat is categorised under Flat, unit or apartment). Source:Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, 2901.0 - Census Dictionary, 2011, Dwelling Structure (STRD), Canberra, 2011, viewed 25 February 2016, <www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/2901.0chapter29902011> 9
Households and Dwellings The mix of dwellings varies across the District. In 2011 more than one in three dwellings in Parramatta and Auburn local government areas were apartments compared with just over five per cent of dwellings in The Hills and Blacktown local government areas. The majority of dwellings in these two local government areas were separate houses (Figure 8). THE HILLS 84% 11% 5% PARRAMATTA 13% 51% 35% BLACKTOWN 83% 12% 6% AUBURN 12% 49% 39% HOLROYD 14% 61% 25% BANKSTOWN 17% 68% 15% Separate House Semi-detatched DWELLING TYPES Flat, Unit or Apartment Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent. Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding. Figure 8: Dwelling types in local government areas of the West Central District, 2011 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, 2011 Census of Population and Housing: Time Series Profile, Second Release, cat No. 2003.0, Canberra. 10
Households and Dwellings Dwelling Completions One in three of all dwellings built in the West Central District over the past ten years were located in Blacktown. Parramatta and The Hills local government areas have also contributed a significant number of new dwellings to supply (Figure 9). DWELLINGS 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 AURBURN BANKSTOWN BLACKTOWN HOLROYD PARRAMATTA THE HILLS SHIRE LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 DWELLING COMPLETIONS (by financial year) 2014/15 Figure 9: Net dwelling completions in local government areas of the West Central District, 2005/06 to 2014/15 Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment, various years, Metropolitan Development Program Housing Monitor, Sydney. Blacktown and The Hills local government areas have been the dominant locations for the development of detached houses, while apartment development has dominated dwelling completions in Auburn and Parramatta local government areas. 11
Households and Dwellings Housing Market Demand Areas Housing Market Demand Areas capture the locations that households move within. They are based on research undertaken by the City Futures Research Centre at the University of New South Wales which identified that 82 per cent of households in the Sydney Metropolitan Area move less than 15 kilometres. Parramatta and Blacktown-Marayong Housing Market Demand Areas are wholly or mostly within the District. The Housing Market Demand Areas of North West, Rouse Hill-Dural, Central North and Bankstown-Holsworthy are partly in the District (Figure 10). Supply in one Housing Market Demand Area may not satisfy demand for housing in others. Consideration of the preferences and needs of different household types is required at the local level. Figure 10: Housing Market Demand Areas in the West Central District Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2016, Housing Market Demand Area Map, Sydney. 12
Employment and Economy Jobs by Sector The manufacturing sector is the largest industry of employment (15 per cent) in the West Central District (Figure 11). MANUFACTURING HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE RETAIL TRADE 11 % 11 % 15 % CONSTRUCTION 7 % EDUCATION & TRAINING 7 % WHOLESALE TRADE 7 % PUBLIC ADMINITRATION & SAFETY 6 % TRANSPORT, POSTAL & WAREHOUSING 6 % ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 5 % FINANCIAL & INSURANCE SERVICES 5 % PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL SERVICES 5 % Figure 11: Top employment sectors in the West Central District, 2011 Source: Bureau of Transport Statistics 2014, Small Area Employment Forecast Model Version 2.0, Sydney. 13
Employment and Economy Location of Jobs There are eight Strategic Centres in the West Central District. One third of the District s jobs are located in these Strategic Centres (Figure 12). The District s Strategic Centres have distinct employment profiles Parramatta, Norwest and Sydney Olympic Park contain the largest proportion of office based employment, while Bankstown, Blacktown, Castle Hill and Rouse Hill are characterised by population service based employment. Parramatta Central Business District has experienced significant growth in housing and jobs since 2001 and now contains one of the largest concentrations of office floor space outside the Sydney Central Business District. Manufacturing is concentrated in industrial lands close to the major transport corridors of the M2, M4 and M5 Motorways and the Cumberland and Prospect Highways. Bankstown Airport Milperra also has a high proportion of manufacturing employment. 41 % INDUSTRIAL LANDS 26 % DISPERSED LOCATIONS 21 % INDUSTRIAL LANDS 36 % DISPERSED LOCATIONS 34 % STRATEGIC CENTRES West Central District Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent. Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding. JOB LOCATIONS 43 % STRATEGIC CENTRES Sydney Metropolitan Area Figure 12: Job locations in the West Central District and the Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011 Source: Bureau of Transport Statistics 2014, Small Area Employment Forecast Model Version 2.0, Sydney. Strategic Centres: The largest centres in the Sydney Metropolitan Area, when developed. They contain mixed-use activity of an amount, density and diversity that is of metropolitan significance, including commercial (office, business and retail), civic and cultural uses; government services; and higher density housing. They are typically on the passenger rail network or serviced by other high frequency public transport. Strategic Centres typically contain at least 10,000 jobs, with the potential to accommodate ongoing jobs growth over the long-term. They are priority locations for employment and retail activity. Industrial lands: Land that is zoned for industry and/or warehouse uses including manufacturing; transport and warehousing; service and repair trades and industries; integrated enterprises with a mix of administration, production, warehousing, research and development; and urban services and utilities. Dispersed locations: Any job that occurs that is not in a Strategic Centre or on industrial lands (e.g. local retail; health, and schools). Source:Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, 2901.0 - Census Dictionary, 2011, Dwelling Structure (STRD), Canberra, 2011, viewed 25 February 2016, <www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/2901.0chapter29902011> 14
Employment and Economy Journeys to Work Journeys to work for West Central District residents are mostly focused on locations in Blacktown and Parramatta local government areas. Many of the District s office-based workers, such as those employed in financial, professional and public service sectors, travel to the Sydney Central Business District for work. The Sydney Central Business District is the third most common work location for residents of the West Central District. (T3) and the Cumberland Line (T5). There are limited northsouth public transport links west of the Parramatta Central Business District. Almost three quarters (72 per cent) of West Central residents who work within the District drive to work (Figure 13). The large volume of jobs in industrial zoned land and its dispersed nature contributes to this. The West Central District is served by major radial transport links including the M2, M4, M7, the Western Line (T1); the Airport, Inner West and South Line (T2); the Bankstown Line 21 % 1 % 12 % 4 % 3 % LIVE AND WORK IN WEST DISTRICT 16 % LIVE IN WEST DISTRICT AND WORK ELSEWHERE 72 % 71 % PRIVATE VEHICLE (ONE MODE) PUBLIC TRANSPORT (ONE OR MORE MODES) WALK/ CYCLE WORKED FROM HOME/ DID NOT WORK/OTHER Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent. Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding. Figure 13: West Central District residents journey to work by mode, 2011 Source: REMPLAN 2015, Economic Modelling and Planning System, Victoria, using Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, 2011 Census of Population Housing, Canberra. 15
Employment and Economy Contribution to the Economy The manufacturing sector is the greatest contributor to economic output, generating 32 per cent of the District s gross revenue. Figure 14 identifies the industry with the highest contribution to gross regional product for each local government area of the West Central District. Figure 14: Main economic activity in Sydney by industry with the greatest contribution to each LGA s Gross Regional Product Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, A Plan for Growing Sydney, Sydney, p.37, Fig 12. 16
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