Living well in density in Greater Sydney, Shelter NSW seminar, Sydney, 2 December 2010

Transcription

1 Living well in density in Greater Sydney, Shelter NSW seminar, Sydney, 2 December 2010

2 Higher density living: The urban future 1. The Compact City the dominant planning orthodoxy for our cities. 2. Urban consolidation in the current context means urban renewal at higher densities in urban centres major step up in density for Australian cities 3. Will this approach deliver what it promises? Unproven at present mixed outcomes (it doesn t even deliver the numbers) 4. Plenty of questions about the outcomes of higher density housing little real understanding of what we are creating and the issues it will generate 5. Are we being driven into an concentrated density model which will illresult in socially unsustainable living? 6. What would forms of higher density housing and what levels of density will work best in the Australasian context we don t really know 7. What are the issues we need to address to ensure a liveable higher density future?

3 The promise of higher density residential development Urban design that promotes a higher density of buildings, coupled with mixed use, good buildingdesign design and open space provisioncan: provide cost savings in land, infrastructure and energy increase housing, transport and lifestyle choices help concentrate knowledge and innovative activity in the heart of the city be associated with lower crime and greater safety help preserve green spaces reduce runoff from vehicles to water and emissions i to air and atmosphere (although air emissions may be more locally concentrated) help encourage greater physical activity with consequent health benefits promote social connectedness and vitality. Source: Auckland City Council growth/residential intensification.cfm. Downloaded 18 Nov 2010

4 Higher density reality much more prosaic

5 The new planning orthodoxy: Market led compact renewal 2.1mnew flats in 30years Preferred form New dwellings targets Renewal/infill Melbourne Hierarchy of centres (2002/3) Urban Activity Centres/TODs 550,000 by 2026 Inc to 50% (244,00) SEQ (2004/5) Sydney (2005/6) Adelaide (2010) Perth th(2009) Auckland (2007) Hierarchy of centres Activity Centres Hierarchy of centres Higher density corridors Transit corridors/interchanges Multi use centres Activity centres network Hierarchy of centres Higher density centres and transport corridors 620,000 by % (426,000) 740,000 by % (570,000) 250,000 by to 70% (170,000) 328,000 by % (180,000) 000) 700,000 by % (490,000)

6 Flats and Apartments a slowly emerging market in Australia

7 Flats and Apartments Sydney and Melbourne lead the trend

8 Sydney The geography Metro Strategy: of higher density: Sub-regional inner city, but targets spreading by 2035 Sydney

9 Sydney Metro Strategy: Sub-regional targets by 2035

10 What's been delivered so far? Higher Density Development Total of 43,278 new strata lots registered: 8,655 p.a. Bias to the high value East Central area East Central West Central

11 The drivers of demand for higher density housing: who lives in it?

12 The higher density market is investor driven Tenure by dwelling type, Sydney % 90% 3% 14% 11% 9% Public or community rental Perce entage 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 40% 29% 28% 50% Private rental Being purchased 30% 20% 10% 39% 25% 19% 16% Fully owned 0% Separate house Semi-detached, terrace, townhouse etc. Flat, unit or apartment Dwelling type

13 Different locations different styles different markets The following analysis focuses on market provision only excludes public housing

14 The Strata Market is a Segmented Market Multi-factor analysis of 2006 Census data for units in Sydney and Melbourne Factor Group (Overall) %Variance Economically Engaged g 44% Battlers 15% Apartment Elite 10% Residentially Retired 7% Achieving i Education 5%

15 A tail of two differentially segmented high density cities Five sub-markets: Sydney % Melbourne % 1. Battlers 38% 10% 2. The Economically Engaged 24% 22% 3. Apartment Elite 23% 13% 4. Residentially Retired 10% 25% 5. Achieving Education 6% 30% 2006 Census data analysis: Strikingly different profile of residents between the two cities Sydney and Melbourne higher density markets are driven by very different dynamics

16 High density in Sydney different markets in different places. 120% 100% 80% 2% 0% Outer 16% 27% 32% 36% 41% entage Perc 60% 40% 20% 0% 81% Apartment elite 17% 36% 63% 68% 47% 23% 11% Achieving Economically Residentially Battlers education engaged retired Middle Inner Factor group

17 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Many families with young Battlers 38% children (almost 2/3 rds ). Lowest household income (over a third earning less than $50,000 p.a. gross). Almost 2/3 rds renting (62%), 24% are buyers & 14% own outright. Just over a third were born in Australia: Chinese, Indian and Vietnamese born figure highly. Canterbury/Bankstown, Hurstville, Auburn, Parramatta, Liverpool, Fairfield. Image:

18 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Young adults through to those in early mid-age. Many lone persons and young couples, most without children. Medium to high incomes (over $90,000 per year not uncommon). Over 2/3 rds are renting, ¼ are purchasing. Pyrmont, Zetland, Wolli Creek & Parramatta. Economically Engaged 24% Image: www-old.itcib.org

19 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Predominantly couples aged over 50 without any children. Almost entirely employed in higher end occupations with many households earning in excess of $130,000 p.a.. Over a half are renting & a quarter own their apartment outright. Eastern Suburbs, North Sydney, Drummoyne & Breakfast Point. Apartment Elite 23% Image:

20 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Older (over 65 year old) Residentially Retired 10% households. Over half live alone. Almost 40% own their apartment outright, the highest proportion of owners of all factor groups.. Over half were born in Australia & almost 10% were born in England. High income and low income. Rose Bay and North Shore or Canterbury/Bankstown, Hurstville and Paramatta. Image:

21 Sydney unit dwellers profiles Younger (under 25 year old) households. Many living alone, some sharing with others. Almost 80% are renting, 10% own their apartment outright (possibly parents). Over 2/3 rds born overseas: China, India, da, Korea. Locations close to Universities and suburban transport nodes/centres Achieving Education 6% Image:

22 Multiply overlaying market segments Higher Density around a suburban transport node: Epping Economically Engaged Achieving Education Battler Residentially Retired

23 Children in Flats suburban, low income and overcrowded? Percent bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4 bedrooms 5+ Children in houses Children in flats

24 Life Style Aspirations: do people like living i in Apartments? t Telephone interviews with 1,200 apartment residents in Sydney and Melbourne

25 How satisfied are people with apartment living overall? (City Futures Survey Sydney and Melbourne 2008 ). 100% 29% 21% 25% 13% 80% 54% Very satisfied Percen ntage 60% 40% 20% 36% 54% 56% 51% 55% Fairly satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Slightly dissatisfied Very dissatisfied 0% 7% 6% 6% 4% 6% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% Residentially retired Apartment elite Economically engaged Factor group Battlers Achieving education

26 What are people satisfied with? (City Futures Survey Sydney and Melbourne 2008 ). Most satisfied: size (over 60% of all groups satisfied) and design of apartment (over 60% of all groups satisfied). Least satisfied: shared open space and management of the apartment building (varies considerably by factor group).

27 Apartment lifestyle (City Futures Survey Sydney and Melbourne 2008) 68% said apartment t living i suited their current lifestyle l......but only 43% said apartment living as preferred long term option (outright owners, older people and singles) 89% thought access to public transport good or ideal......but only 35% used public transport on a daily basis [higher than 2006 Census findings that 19% of total Sydney population used public transport to get to work]

28 A new form of residential ownership and potential ti for neighbour conflict: Strata t Title

29 The emerging role of strata Fragmenting the city vertically By 2035, 40% of Sydney s housing could be strata Increasingly gycomplex larger and multi use schemes Complex ownership and governance structures owners corporations, many stakeholders The 4 th level of governance the emergence of networked governance ofthe city New patterns of social interaction and behaviour New forms of domestic property ownership and rights New forms of neighbour conflict Will mixed use strata blocks be impossible to unravel?

30 The emerging role of strata

31 The emerging role of strata Complex structure t of formal relationships between key stakeholders Lettings agents

32 The potential for community conflict: The rise of Save Our Suburb b

33 The Battle for Ku Ring Kai 2010

34 Discussion

35 Implications for the planning system Future urban growth will increasingly depend on the perceptions and behaviour of residential investors How many more households are there waiting to take up the rental supply? Will smaller households retain their preference for house property? Will the sector remain as transitory accommodation for most? Will strata title provide a durable framework for managing communal living? How do we get rid of old blocks and who decides when they should go? City Futures Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment UNSW Are we building socially polarised cities based on dwelling type and size and does this matter?

36 Implications for social stability and community building Communal living close physical proximity to neighbours Physical constraints (e.g. adjoining apartments, small apartments, shared facilities, noise) Many neighbours are transitory and do not associate with the property Communal governance how well do body corporates work? What are the problems? And do we solve them? Building Quality and Successful Governance structures t hold the key to successful strata living and for the future of high density cities City Futures Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment UNSW Essential to get both these right but are we?

37 Key issues for achieving socially sustainable higher density communities Are higher density developments socially sustainable (balanced)? Will higher density ever be child friendly? We will have to build more flats suitable for families i.e. bigger (And can they ever be youth friendly?) Or will high density housing ever be much more than Gen X dormitories, empty nests or bottom rung accommodation? How do you build community in places where renters churn through? Renters vrs owners? Will blocks become segregated and what will be the outcomes? Location are town centres, rail stations and main roads appropriate places to cram flats? And what about open space even for the fur families City Futures Research Centre p p Faculty of the Built Environment UNSW What do we do about the proto-slums?

38 CONCLUSIONS City Futures Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment UNSW

39 So, higher density: Stairway to Heaven...? City Futures Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment UNSW

40 ...or Highway to Hell? City Futures Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment UNSW

41 Living at Density: Plenty of questions, not many answers City Futures Research Centre Built Environment, UNSW City Futures Research Centre 2010