New Development Year-End Report 2017 MANHATTAN $ 2,610 $ 2,282 $ 2,133 0.9% YoY PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE 2.2% YoY PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED 2.3% YoY PER SQ. FT. CLOSED BROOKLYN $ 1,440 PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE $ 1,490 PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED $ 1,343 1.3% YoY 9.4% YoY 0% YoY PER SQ. FT. CLOSED 6,422 18% YoY 664 22% YoY AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* *Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
Summary Points $2,282 PSF In Manhattan, pricing for new development units entering into contract in 2017 rose 2.2% from 2016 to $2,282 PSF. Avg. PPSF has remained essentially flat for the past ten quarters in Manhattan. Avg. PPSF for closed new development units fell 2.3% in 2017 to $2,133. The median price of new development units entering contract in Q4 2017 rose nearly 8.3% quarter-over-quarter to $2.4M, but fell 16.1% year-overyear as pricing at the top-end has continued to correct downward. 12.4% In Brooklyn, new development entering into contract averaged $1,490 PSF in 2017, a 9.4% increase from 2016. This also marks the third consecutive quarter of Avg. PPSF at $1,400 or higher. Avg. PPSF for closed new development in Brooklyn remained essentially flat at $1,343 PSF. The median price of new development units entering contract in Q4 2017 rose 35% to $1.96M quarter-over-quarter, and 73% yearover-year. This increase is due to units above $2.5M entering contract at Pierhouse, 51 Jay Street, and 251 First Street. Outside of Billionaire s Row, Midtown West experienced the largest quarterover-quarter increase in Average PPSF at 12.4%, rising to $1,961, due primarily to closings at Manhattan View at MiMA, The Bryant, and The Sorting House. In Manhattan, just over 1,320 units entered into contract in 2017, an increase of 4% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, nearly 400 units entered into contract in 2017, an 11% increase from 2016. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same year. 73% 1,320 Units 6,400 Units Available inventory in Manhattan rose 18% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter to just over 6,400 units. This total includes unsold inventory at large projects such as One Manhattan Square, Waterline Square, and Gramercy Square. In Brooklyn, available inventory fell 22.3% year-over-year, and 2.8% quarter-over-quarter to just over 660 units as supply remains constrained. MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT. MANHATTAN Active $2,291 $1,423 Contract Signed $2,114 $1,408 PER SQ. FT. Closed $1,942 $1,321 Active $2,610 $1,440 Contract Signed $2,282 $1,490 MEDIAN PRICE Closed $2,133 $1,343 BROOKLYN Active $3,900,000 $1,975,000 Contract Signed $2,499,990 $1,775,000 Closed $2,732,754 $1,370,000 Active $6,738,010 $2,466,369 Contract Signed $3,849,656 $2,365,056 TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS) Closed $4,194,756 $1,663,755 Total 12,280 1,904 Units Available 6,422 664 % Closed or Contract Signed 47.7% 65.1% HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 2
Introduction HPDM is pleased to present our New Development Year-End Report for 2017. This report focuses exclusively on the NYC new development condominium market, and aims to be the only report of its kind presenting a comprehensive picture of new development activity. New development is unique from the overall real estate market in that closings often do not occur for 12 to 18 months after a buyer enters into contract. Therefore, to understand this market it is critical to track active listings, listings in contract, closed listings, as well as total inventory. This report analyzes 2017 as a whole and is a snapshot of current new development market conditions. In Manhattan, pricing for new development units entering into contract in 2017 rose 2.2% from 2016 to $2,282 PSF. Avg. PPSF for closed new development units fell 2.3% in 2017 to $2,133. In Brooklyn, new development entering into contract averaged $1,490 PSF in 2017, a 9.4% increase from 2016. Avg. PPSF for closed new development Brooklyn remained essentially flat at $1,343 PSF. METHODOLOGY: All data is provided by proprietary Halstead Property Development Marketing research. This report tracks new development projects only, defined as those new to the market and currently selling sponsor units. Buildings that have fully sold out of sponsor units are not included, even though they may be newly built. Resale data is not included in this report. All listings were compiled as of 12/11/17. Total Inventory is defined as all units within new development projects that are currently listed as Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are currently listed as Active as well as those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 2017, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. By including currently unreleased units that are not yet listed as Active this data provides a unique and comprehensive analysis of the current new development market. TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET OVERVIEW...5 MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT...7 ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE...8 PRICE POINT ANALYSIS... 9 TOTAL INVENTORY...11 FURTHER INSIGHT... 12 CONTACT... 13 HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 3
THE CLARE 301 EAST 61ST TheClareNYC.com
Market Overview Downtown continued to see the most new development activity in Manhattan in 2017 with more than 1300 units either entering into contract or closing. Next to Billionaire s Row, Downtown shows the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,636. The highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. for Contract Signed deals in 2017 occurred in Midtown West, with an average of $2,380 PSF, a 14.8% increase from 2016, due primarily to The Bryant at 16 West 40th Street. CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. $7,000 GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS 23 1,305 NUMBER OF UNITS 1,400 $6,000 $5,000 292 $6,222 958 1, 1,000 $4,000 92 221 219 800 $3,000 234 600 $2,000 $1,000 $1,263 $1,165 $2,098 $2,272 $2,393 $1,699 $1,987 $1,827 $2,118 $1,438 $2,346 $2,417 $1,331 $1,426 400 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $6,025 $7,895 $5,757 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,921 $1,543 $1,251 $2,353 $2,201 $2,123 $2,249 $2,024 $1,893 $2,082 $2,380 $1,813 $2,302 $1,826 $2,095 $2,636 $2,355 $2,373 $1,440 $1,490 $1,343 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 5
Market Overview by Quarter The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter. Outside of Billionaire s Row, Midtown West experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in Average PPSF at 12.4%, rising to $1,961, due primarily to closings at Manhattan View at MiMA, The Bryant, and The Sorting House. Downtown remained essentially flat quarter-over-quarter, once again, while other major Manhattan neighborhoods were down between 3.1% (Upper West Side) and 8.8% (Midtown East). Meanwhile, Avg. PPSF in Brooklyn remained flat quarter-over-quarter at $1,388. CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $7,268 $7,661 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,099 $1,207 $1,526 $1,465 $2,303 $2,079 $2,015 $1,953 $1,964 $1,922 $1,842 $1,776 $1,970 $1,850 $1,745 $1,961 $5,259 $4,955 $2,098 $2,252 $2,216 $2,022 $2,429 $2,335 $2,344 $2,326 $1,311 $1,362 $1,386 $1,388 $2,548 $2,325 $1,245 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 6
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight UPTOWN, MIDTOWN. AND DOWNTOWN Outside of Billionaire s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in Manhattan for 2017 was $3,746 PSF, achieved in the West Village with sales at 160 Leroy Street, followed closely by the Flatiron District at $3,476. The highest average Closed pricing outside of Billionaire s Row occurred in the West Village at $3,230 PSF due to sales at The Greenwich Lane and 275 West 10th Street, followed by West Chelsea at $3,015 PSF, boosted by deliveries at 551 West 21st Street. UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $6,025 $7,895 $5,757 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,921 $1,543 $1,251 $2,353 $2,201 $2,123 $2,249 $2,024 $1,893 $2,746 $2,743 $2,549 $2,302 $1,826 $2,095 $2,545 $2,319 $2,166 $3,353 $2,789 $3,015 $1,640 $1,791 $1,652 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST CHELSEA WEST CHELSEA HELL'S KITCHEN DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,986 $2,071 $1,562 $3,001 $3,476 $2,820 $2,610 $2,608 $2,752 $2,742 $2,536 $2,898 $2,883 $2,654 $2,152 $2,233 $3,636 $3,746 $3,230 $2,159 $2,116 $1,784 $2,148 $2,187 $2,259 $2,688 $2,231 $1,282 GRAMERCY PARK FLATIRON GREENWICH VILLAGE SOHO NOHO TRIBECA WEST VILLAGE EAST VILLAGE LES FINANCIAL DISTRICT * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 7
Analysis by Unit Type MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN In 2017 two-bedroom units continued to experience the most deal volume by unit type in Manhattan, with over 810 two-bedroom units entering into contract or closing. In Brooklyn, one-bedroom units saw the most deal volume with more than 310 units entering into contract or closing. Median Contract Signed pricing for two-bedrooms in Manhattan rose 2.1% from 2016 to $2.85M. In Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for one-bedrooms rose 8.3% in 2017 to $995,000. In Manhattan, two-bedrooms show the most Active listings at nearly 260, with three-bedrooms close behind at just over 240. Two and three-bedrooms comprise the most Active listings in Brooklyn with 37 each, while one-bedrooms follow closely with just over 20 Active units. MANHATTAN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE MANHATTAN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $30M $25M $20M $15M $10M $5M ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 1066 934 780 321 120 $1.01M $925K $895K $1.57M $1.56M $1.3M $3M $2.85M $2.74M $5.87M $5.36M $5.23M $9.45M $7M $8.03M $15.6M $12.53M STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED 5 BED 77 $24.25M NUMBER OF UNITS 1 0 800 600 400 0 700 600 500 400 300 ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED 30 19 71 173 173 215 546 256 228 168 642 244 237 94 442 STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 113 153 35 173 4 BED 28 5 44 5 BED BROOKLYN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE BROOKLYN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $4.5M $4M $3.5M $3M $2.5M $2M $1.5M $1M $500K ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 87 343 327 236 $680K $600K $970K $995K $903K $1.68M $1.65M $1.55M $2.75M $2.65M $2.27M 76 $4.45M $4.52M $3.69M NUMBER OF UNITS 350 300 250 150 50 350 300 250 150 50 ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED 57 66 308 67 276 48 4 83 23 12 37 14 37 12 187 14 6 56 STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 8
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN 38% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan remain priced above $5M, but well below a high of 52% in Q1 2015. Meanwhile, 15.1% of Active listings remain priced above $10M, essentially unchanged from year-end 2016. Notable in Brooklyn is the rise in $2M - $3M closings (jumping from 9% to 17% in 2017). This reflects delivery of higher price point units that entered into contract in the previous 6 18 months. In Manhattan, the total percentage of new development deals entering contract under $5M rose to 80.5% from 75.4% at year-end 2016. Conversely, the percentage of deals over $5M fell to 19.5% from 24.6% at year-end 2016. 2017 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN ACTIVE MANHATTAN CONTRACT SIGNED MANHATTAN CLOSED $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M 2017 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN ACTIVE BROOKLYN CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN CLOSED 9.3% 4.2% 12.7% 13.8% 15.3% 36.4% 38.3% 10.1% 11.5% 15% 17.3% 7.9% 19.5% 7.1% 11.7% 20.2% 35.3% 6.3% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 17.8% 15.6% 1.8% 1.6% 6.9% 17.6% 34.6% 37.5% 46.7% 25.9% 8.5% 11.4% 16.3% 28.4% 9.5% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $0-1M HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 9
ONE PARK 320 ADOLPHUS AVE, CLIFFSIDE, NJ oneparkcondosnj.com
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN The largest amount of available inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Lower East Side with over 900 units, due to One Manhattan Square. Midtown West is next with over 600 units of available inventory. Neighborhoods with low available inventory (under 50 units) include Chelsea, Flatiron, and Greenwich Village. In Brooklyn, the highest available inventory is found in Williamsburg and Prospect Heights due to the Austin Nichols House and 550 Vanderbilt. Areas of low available inventory (under 50 units) include Downtown Brooklyn and DUMBO. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding percentage of units sold. MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 2017, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by including unreleased units. PERCENTAGE SOLD 1600 1400 1 0 800 600 400 64% 55% 223 1,374 HARLEM UWS 61% 1,302 UES 24% 812 MIDTOWN WEST 48% 452 BN. ROW* 42% 532 MIDTOWN EAST 57% 51 CHELSEA 35% 483 WEST CHELSEA 62% 736 HELL'S KITCHEN 27% 610 GRAM. PARK 84% 269 FLATIRON 71% 114 GREEN. VILLAGE 35% 43% 401 SOHO 14 NOHO 73% 62% 776 391 TRIBECA WEST VILLAGE 47% 146 20% EAST VILLAGE 1,206 LES 64% 1,903 FINANCIAL DISTRICT 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY 800 700 600 500 400 TOTAL UNITS 62% PERCENT SOLD 61% 56% 81% 89% 54% 62% 40% 322 58% 520 PERCENTAGE SOLD 90 80 70 60 50 300 40 0 157 BROOKLYN HEIGHTS 49 CARROLL GARDENS 115 CLINTON HILLS 284 BOERUM HILL 48 DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN 188 DUMBO 193 GREENPOINT 303 PROSPECT HEIGHTS 141 PARK SLOPE WILLIAMSBURG 30 20 10 0 * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 11
65 Further Insight MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development activity by volume in 2017, followed closely by Brooklyn. In Manhattan, just over 1,320 units entered into contract in 2017, an increase of 4% year-over-year. In Brooklyn, nearly 400 units entered into contract in 2017, an 11% increase from 2016.These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same year. MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE Two-bedroom units in Brooklyn remain more efficiently sized than two-bedrooms in Manhattan, while one-bedrooms are becoming more similarly sized in each borough. Median size for two-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 1186 sq.ft, while the median for twobedroom units in Manhattan is 1422 sq. ft. Median size for one-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 712 sq.ft, while the median for one-bedroom units in Manhattan is 782 sq. ft. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED MANHATTAN BROOKLYN UNITS 0 SQ.FT 5,000 900 800 933 913 4,500 4,000 4,513 700 600 500 400 300 46 246 66 38 183 72 37 182 48 21 213 43 5 18 504 372 54 20 149 118 89 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 566 468 782 712 1,422 1,186 2,225 1,702 3,208 2,420 3,571 UES UWS MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST BN ROW* DOWNTOWN UPPER MANHATTAN BKLYN** STUDIO 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR 4 BR 5 BR HPDM HPDMNY.COM 2017 Year-End Report 12
Contact 805 9th Avenue Hell's Kitchen 805ninth.com 17 + 52 Convent Harlem ConventHarlem.com 445 Park Avenue, 10th Floor New York, NY 22 HPDMNY.com 212 521 5757 Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Vice President of Research and Analytics. The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM s prior consent. For questions or comments regarding this report please contact research@hpdmny.com