REIDIN United Arab Emirates Residential Property Price Indices: January 2017 Results - Edition: 98. February 20, 2017

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Transcription:

REIDIN United Arab Emirates Residential Property Price Indices: January 217 Results - Edition: 98 February 2, 217

REIDIN United Arab Emirates Residential Property Price Indices January 217 Results Dubai Market Analysis Dubai Residential Property Price Indices: Sales Price Indices Dubai Residential Property Price Indices: Rental Price Indices Dubai Gross Rental Yields and Price-to-Rent Ratios Dubai Residential Property Price Indices and Financial Indicators Page 3 7 11 13 Abu Dhabi Market Analysis Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices: Sales Price Indices Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices: Rental Price Indices Abu Dhabi Gross Rental Yields and Price-to-Rent Ratios 14 18 22 Methodology and Coverage 25

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Sales Price Indices The Dubai Residential Property Sales Price Index for all residential decreased by.8 points, from 259.9 to 259.1, which represents a decrease of.31% in January 217. On the other hand, prices decreased.81% y-o-y. Apartment sales prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased.13% m-o-m and also decreased.83% y-o-y. Villa sales prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased 1.7% m- o-m and also decreased.71% y-o-y. 3

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Sales Price Indices All Residential 3 25 261. 259.9 259.1 2 : -.31% : -.13% : -1.7% 1 1. 23 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 3 4 444.5 446.1 441.3 25 2 237.4 235.7 235.4 3 2 1 1. 1 1. 23 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan 23 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan (January 23 = 1) 4

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Sales Price Indices -.31% -.13% -1.7% Sales Price Indices Last 1 Month Last 3 Month Last 6 Month Last 1 Year Last 2 Year -.31% -.13% -.53% -.39% -.41% -.22% -1.7% -1.13% -1.19% -.81% -.83% -.71% -2-7.5-1 -12.5-1.31% -1.5% -9.59% Residential (%) Apartment (%) Villa (%) 5

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Sales Price Indices and Monthly Changes ALL RESIDENTIAL APARTMENT VILLA Month (Jan.23=1) Index Number Index Number Index Number May 216 26.1.97% 235.6 1.5% 448.7.63% June 216 261..33% 236.5.38% 449.3.12% July 216 26.2 -.31% 235.9 -.24% 446.6 -.59% August 216 26.5.14% 236.4.19% 446.3 -.7% September 216 26.4 -.6% 236.1 -.9% 446.6.7% October 216 26.5.4% 236.3.7% 446.4 -.6% November 216 26.5 -.1% 236.3.% 446.3 -.2% December 216 259.9 -.21% 235.7 -.25% 446.1 -.4% January 217 259.1 -.31% 235.4 -.13% 441.3-1.7% 6

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices The Dubai Residential Property Rental Price Index for all residential decreased by.2 points, from 95.8 to 95.6, which represents a decrease of.16% in January 217. On the other hand, prices decreased 3.72% y-o-y. Apartment rental prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased.7% m-o-m and also decreased 3.1% y-o-y. Villa rental prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased.63% m-o-m and also decreased 7.46% y-o-y. 7

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices All Residential 12 11 1 1. 99.3 : -.16% : -.7% : -.63% 9 95.8 95.6 29 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 11 13 15 1 95 1. 96.9 94. 94. 12 11 1 1. 115. 17.1 16.4 29 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan 29 Jan 215 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan (January 29 = 1) 8

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices -.16% -.7% -.63% Rental Price Indices -2.5-6 Last 1 Month Last 3 Month Last 6 Month Last 1 Year Last 2 Year -.16% -.7% -.63% -.9% -.63% -2.33% -2.35% -1.86% -3.1% -3.72% -5.% -8.5-11 -7.46% -8.86% -8.7% -13.5-12.93% Residential (%) Apartment (%) Villa (%) 9

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices and Monthly Changes ALL RESIDENTIAL APARTMENT VILLA Month (Jan.29=1) Index Number Index Number Index Number May 216 99..3% 96.8.47% 113.4 -.53% June 216 98.5 -.53% 96.3 -.51% 112.7 -.65% July 216 97.9 -.62% 95.7 -.62% 112. -.58% August 216 98.2.3% 96.2.46% 111.3 -.63% September 216 97.3 -.97% 95.3 -.95% 11.1-1.4% October 216 96.5 -.79% 94.6 -.75% 18.9-1.8% November 216 95.8 -.7% 94. -.54% 17.2-1.57% December 216 95.8 -.4% 94. -.2% 17.1 -.15% January 217 95.6 -.16% 94. -.7% 16.4 -.63% 1

Dubai Gross Rental Yields (%) 7.2% 7.6% 7.5 7 6 All Residential 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 5 5.5% 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 7.5 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 6.5 5.6 5.6% 5.5 4 5.5 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 11

Dubai Price-to-Rent Ratios 14.3 13.6 14.5 14.35 14.3 All Residential 14.4 14.4 14.2 14.3 14.3 18.6 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 13.7 18.7 18.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 18.5 18.6 18.6 13.5 18.4 13.4 13.5 18.1 18.3 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 12

Dubai Residential Property Price Indices & Financial Indicators 3.3% 1.41% -.31% (January 23 = 1) Dubai Residential Property Price Indices & Financial Indicators 32 25 17 323.2 333.9 259.9 259.1 17.3 172.7 8 216 Dec 217 Jan Gold Price Index Oil Price Index Dubai Residential Property Price Index 13

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices: Sales Price Indices The Abu Dhabi Residential Property Sales Price Index for all residential decreased by 1.3 points, from 8.8 to 79.5, which represents a decrease of 1.56% in January 217. On the other hand, prices decreased 5.38% y-o-y. Apartment sales prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased 1.6% m-o-m and also decreased 5.3% y-o-y. Villa sales prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased 1.46% m- o-m and also decreased 6.49% y-o-y. 14

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices Sales Price Indices All Residential 135 11 85 1. 84.1 8.8 79.5 : -1.56% : -1.6% : -1.46% 6 29 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 1 1. 11 11.6 7 65.6 63.3 62.3 15 15. 13.5 6 1 1. 5 95 29 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan 29 Jan 215 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan (January 29 = 1) 15

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices Sales Price Indices -1.56% -1.6% -1.46% Sales Price Indices Last 1 Month Last 3 Month Last 6 Month Last 1 Year Last 2 Year -1.5% -3% -5% -1.56% -1.6% -1.46% -2.73% -2.58% -3.2% -3.74% -3.64% -4.12% -3.59% -6,5% -5.3% -5.38% -5.32% -8% -6.49% -7.46% Residential (%) Apartment (%) Villa (%) 16

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices Sales Price Indices and Monthly Changes ALL RESIDENTIAL APARTMENT VILLA Month (Jan.29=1) Index Number Index Number Index Number May 216 82.9 -.17% 64.9 -.31% 18.1.27% June 216 82.9 -.1% 64.8 -.5% 18.3.1% July 216 82.6 -.31% 64.6 -.31% 17.9 -.32% August 216 82.6 -.1% 64.6 -.8% 18.1.19% September 216 82.1 -.64% 64.2 -.56% 17.2 -.88% October 216 81.8 -.39% 63.9 -.45% 16.9 -.26% November 216 81.6 -.22% 64..5% 15.8-1.4% December 216 8.8 -.97% 63.3-1.5% 15. -.74% January 217 79.5-1.56% 62.3-1.6% 13.5-1.46% 17

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices The Abu Dhabi Residential Property Rental Price Index for all residential decreased by.9 points, from 62.8 to 61.9, which represents a decrease of 1.53% in January 217. On the other hand, prices decreased 5.96% y-o-y. Apartment rental prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased 1.59% m-o-m and also decreased 6.71% y-o-y. Villa rental prices registered a decrease in January 217. Prices decreased 1.39% m-o-m but increased 3.6% y-o-y. 18

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices All Residential 1 1. 7 65.8 62.8 61.9 55 : -1.53% : -1.59% : -1.39% 5 29 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 1 1. 1 1. 7 65.8 62.4 61.4 7 68. 66.8 65.9 55 6 5 5 29 Jan 216 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan 29 Jan 215 Jan 216 Dec 217 Jan (January 29 = 1) 19

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices -1.53% -1.59% -1.39% Rental Price Indices Last 1 Month Last 3 Month Last 6 Month Last 1 Year Last 2 Year % -1.5% -3.2% -5-6.5% -1.53% -1.59% -1.39% -3.63% -3.9% -2.82% -5.51% -6.9% -3.68% -5.96% -6.71% -3.6% -7.64% -7.52% -4.63% Residential (%) Apartment (%) Villa (%) 2

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices Rental Price Indices and Monthly Changes ALL RESIDENTIAL APARTMENT VILLA Month (Jan.29=1) Index Number Index Number Index Number May 216 66.3 -.72% 66.4 -.9% 68.5 -.15% June 216 65.9 -.59% 65.9 -.8% 68.5.4% July 216 65.5 -.61% 65.4 -.76% 68.4 -.15% August 216 65.2 -.5% 65. -.58% 68.3 -.19% September 216 64.7 -.72% 64.4 -.88% 68.1 -.26% October 216 64.2 -.74% 63.9 -.84% 67.8 -.44% November 216 63.5-1.15% 63. -1.38% 67.5 -.44% December 216 62.8 -.99% 62.4 -.98% 66.8-1.1% January 217 61.9-1.53% 61.4-1.59% 65.9-1.39% 21

Abu Dhabi Gross Rental Yields (%) All Residential 7.% 7.1 7.1% 7.% 7.5 7. 7.% 7.% 7.% 6.9 7.3% 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 7.1 7.1% 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7 7.% 7.% 7.% 7.2 6.9 7.1 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 22

Abu Dhabi Price-to-Rent Ratios 14.7 14.7 All Residential 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.65 14.6 14.4 14.5 14.2 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan Apartment Villa 15 14.75 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.6 14.15 14.5 14.5 14.1 14.1 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 216 Oct 216 Nov 216 Dec 217 Jan 23

Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices & Financial Indicators 3.3% 1.41% -1.56% (January 29 = 1) Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Indices & Financial Indicators 13 132.2 136.5 124.4 126.1 1 8. 79.5 6 4 216 Nov 216 Dec Gold Price Index Oil Price Index Abu Dhabi Residential Property Price Index 24

REIDIN-UAE Residential Property Price Indices Methodology & Coverage REIDIN UAE Residential Property Price Indices (RPPIs) are designed to be a reliable and consistent benchmark of housing sales and rent prices in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The purpose of the indices is to measure the average differences in house prices in a particular geographic market through a timeline. Methodology and Coverage Monthly REIDIN Dubai and Abu Dhabi RPPIs are calculated based on moving average median prices an approach that is widely used for indexing housing prices which involves median of sales prices of properties in a corresponding region. The median series of sales price data is constructed by taking the median price/sqm of all properties during a certain time period. REIDIN Dubai RPPI employs weighted average of the median prices of areas for the calculation of the monthly index series. The weights used in the methodology are the existing supply of each area which is derived from housing stock and will be updated semi-annually. All Dubai indices are calculated by using the Laspeyres price index formula and a moving average algorithm. On the other hand, REIDIN Abu Dhabi RPPIs are calculated by using the Dutot price index formula (defined as the ratio of the unweighted arithmetic average of the prices in the current period t to base period ) and a moving average algorithm. The official Dubai and Abu Dhabi Real Estate Residential Sales Price Indices provided to Bank of International Settlements (BIS) by the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates (CBUAE) is designed and produced by REIDIN. 25

LEGAL NOTICE Although all values, statements and visual materials in this report are provided, indicated and calculated neatly by REIDIN, we make no warranty, assurance or guarantee that materials and values are absolutely accurate. REIDIN highly recommends that this report should not be taken as an endorsement of or recommendation on any participation by any intending investor or any other party in any transaction whatsoever. This information is presented exclusively for use by REIDIN clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of REIDIN.

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