4Q15 NEW YORK CITY OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW
4Q15 Office Market Overview New York City Table of Contents 3 Executive Summary 4 Manhattan Office Market Analysis 5 Leasing Activity by Market 6 Top Transactions 4Q15 7 Industries Driving Demand 8 Industries Driving New York City Employment 9 Industries Driving Leasing and Taking Rents 23 Manhattan Development Update 24 Commercial Development Pipeline 25 Commercial Development Horizon Map 26 World Trade Center Development Overview 27 Far West Side Development Overview 28 Midtown Development Overview 10 TAMI Taking Rent Comparison 11 TAMI Deals by Submarket 12 Manhattan Submarket Matrix 13 Overall Average Asking Rent by Market 14 Taking Rent Trends 15 Taking Rent Corridor and Submarket Comparison 16 Net Effective Rent Trends 17 Concessions by Select Submarkets for Long-Term Deals 18 Triple-Digit Taking Assets 19 Manhattan Top-Tier Trends 20 Midtown South Top-Tier Trends 29 Brooklyn and Long Island City Office Market Analysis 30 Brooklyn Office Development and Redevelopment Map 31 Brooklyn Office Development and Redevelopment Overview 32 Brooklyn Inventory Pipeline 33 Dumbo and Downtown Brooklyn Trends 34 Brooklyn Submarket Snapshot 35 Brooklyn and Long Island City Submarket Rent Comparison 36 Long Island City Trends 37 Long Island City Transformation Statistics 21 Midtown and Downtown Height Analysis 22 Midtown Asking Rents by Vintage 2
4Q15 Office Market Overview New York City Executive Summary Continued demand for quality office space drove Manhattan market activity in 2015, despite an overall slow-down in leasing activity. Year-end leasing outpaced the ten-year average by 3% but lagged 2014 by 13%. Manhattan asking rents jumped to $74.59/SF in the fourth quarter, up 12% from year-end 2014 and 3% above the previous market peak of 2008. The year-over-year increase was driven by landlords re-pricing assets and high-priced blocks of space coming onto the market in Midtown. In Brooklyn, new and newly repositioned assets in Dumbo and Williamsburg have pushed submarket average asking rents close to Downtown Manhattan. Midtown South has seen the fastest rate of growth in taking rents among Manhattan s major markets. As a result, the gap in rents between Midtown and Midtown South has shrunk since the prior market peak. Midtown South also recorded the highest annual volume of top-tier deals in 2015. Heightened activity in premium-priced space pushed average taking rents up for the sixth consecutive year in Midtown, while Downtown taking rents reached a new record high. Almost 14 MSF of development projects are planned and under construction in Manhattan, scheduled for completion by 2020. In Brooklyn and Long Island City, new construction and major renovations are alleviating supply constraints and creating new submarkets. 3
4Q15 MANHATTAN OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS
4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Leasing Activity by Market Manhattan (MSF) 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8.8 MSF Year-end leasing totaled 36.2 MSF, slightly above the 10-year average of 35.2 MSF, but 13.3% below the 2014 leasing total. The fourth quarter of 2015 posted 9.6 MSF of leasing, the highest quarterly total since 3Q14. Midtown Midtown South Downtown Average Velocity 5
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Top Transactions 4Q15 Company Address Market SF Lease Type Industry Morgan Stanley 1633 Broadway Midtown 260,829 Expansion FIRE Google Pier 57 Teachers Retirement System of the City of New York Midtown South 55 Water Street Downtown 200,000 250,000 New Direct TAMI Renewal & Expansion Boston Consulting Group 10 Hudson Yards Midtown 193,000 New Direct FIRE Professional Services Associated Press 200 Liberty Street Downtown 170,000 New Direct TAMI All of the quarter s top ten deals exceeded 100,000 square feet. TAMI tenants signed half of the top ten deals, while the remaining transactions represented a mix of industries. Midtown and Downtown captured the majority of the quarter s Indeed.com 1120 Avenue of the Americas Midtown 126,000 New Direct TAMI top transactions. Gensler 1700 Broadway Midtown 119,414 New Direct Architecture & Engineering WeWork 300 Park Avenue Midtown 110,000 Sublease TAMI NYC Department of Planning 120 Broadway Downtown 107,282 New Direct Government L3 Communication 600 Third Avenue Midtown 100,000 Renewal TAMI 6
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Industries Driving Demand 2015 LEASING BY INDUSTRY TENANTS IN THE MARKET 100% 75% Other 9% Other Prof Svcs 21% Prof Svcs 8% Other 18% 14% Apparel & Retail 9% Apparel & Retail 6% Apparel & Retail 4% Prof Svcs 11% Other 18% TAMI 31% 50% TAMI 20% TAMI 64% TAMI 31% Apparel & Retail 8% TOTAL SF IN THE MARKET 25% FIRE 41% FIRE 36% Professional Services 16% 0% FIRE 8% Midtown Midtown South Downtown FIRE 28% 7
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Industries Driving New York City Employment Employment by Industry 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 20% Growth Since 1Q10 9% Growth Since 1Q10 26% Growth Since 1Q10 TAMI sector employment growth since the trough of the recession has outpaced FIRE and Professional/ Business Services. Despite this growth, TAMI employment has not yet caught up to either of the other sectors total employment. TAMI employment is currently 41% below Professional/ Business Services and 27% below FIRE. 250,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Professional and Business Services Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Tech, Advertising, Media, and Information, New York State Department of Labor 8
16% 20% 18% 17% $43.02 $50.92 $51.56 $51.86 $50.89 $51.34 $56.84 $53.06 $58.78 $61.04 $56.40 27% $68.64 $66.55 $63.92 $63.25 30% 29% $72.63 $69.04 $80.37 35% 34% 4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Industries Driving Leasing and Taking Rents Leasing and Taking Rents by Industry 40% Leasing by Industry $100 Taking Rents by Industry 30% $80 $60 20% $40 10% $20 0% 2013 2014 2015 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TAMI Professional Services FIRE TAMI Professional Services FIRE * 2014 TAMI rent increase partially attributed to Twitter, Sony and Samsung 9
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis TAMI Taking Rent Comparison Proportion of Taking Rent per Square Foot for Manhattan TAMI Deals 2010 2015 In 2010, the majority of deals (65%) 45% 40% 35% 41% 45% 40% 35% 36% were signed with taking rents in the $20s and $30s. In just five years, that shifted up to the $50s and $60s (64%). 30% 30% 28% 25% 24% 25% 20% 19% 20% 15% 15% 14% 13% 10% 9% 10% 5% 0% 3% 1% 2% 0% 1% $20's $30's $40's $50's $60's $70's $80's $90's $100's 5% 0% 4% 3% 0% 1% 1% $20's $30's $40's $50's $60's $70's $80's $90's $100's 10
Grand Central Times Square South Penn Station Times Square Eastside Sixth Ave/ Rockefeller Ctr Park Avenue Murray Hill Plaza District Far West Side Flatiron/Union Square Chelsea Soho/Noho Hudson Square/ Meatpacking Downtown East Downtown West Tribeca/City Hall 4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis TAMI Deals by Submarket Deals Signed in 2015 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 MIDTOWN MIDTOWN SOUTH MIDTOWN SOUTH 11
Average Asking Rent ($/SF) 4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Manhattan Submarket Matrix Total Availability Rate versus Overall Average Asking Rent $124.59 Plaza District Availability (%) Average Asking Rent ($/SF) MANHATTAN 11.30% $74.59 $74.59 $24.59 0% Noho/Soho East Village Chelsea Eastside Penn Station Park Avenue Hudson Square/Meatpacking Far West Side Westside Flatiron/Union Square Murray Hill Downtown East Sixth Avenue/Rock Ctr. Times Square Times Square South Grand Central Downtown West Tribeca/City Hall 11.3% 22.6% MIDTOWN 11.70% $80.97 Eastside 8.30% $69.67 Grand Central 17.50% $75.28 Murray Hill 9.40% $59.52 Park Avenue 9.60% $101.72 Plaza District 13.10% $114.08 Sixth Ave/Rock Ctr. 12.40% $87.93 Times Square 11.50% $77.39 Times Square South 11.40% $59.77 Penn Station 7.30% $55.17 Westside 9.50% $68.18 Far West Side 8.20% $76.51 MIDTOWN SOUTH 7.70% $69.51 Chelsea 7.00% $60.21 Flatiron/Union Square 8.50% $67.13 Hudson Square/Meatpacking 10.70% $85.05 Noho/Soho 4.10% $64.30 East Village 1.30% $40.27 DOWNTOWN 12.70% $60.90 Tribeca/City Hall 15.90% $61.03 Downtown East 10.60% $53.29 Downtown West 14.90% $68.07 Availability (%) 12
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Overall Average Asking Rent by Market $95 Prior Peak (2008) to 4Q15 Percent Change MT -9% Trough (2010) to 4Q15 Percent Change MT +42% $85 $75 $65 51% spread between MT and MTS asking rents MTS +18% DT +18% MTS +72% DT +56% 16% spread between MT and MTS asking rents $55 $45 41% spread between MT and MTS asking rents $35 $25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Midtown Midtown South Downtown 13
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Taking Rent Trends Average Annual Taking Rents ($/SF) Peak (2008) to 4Q15 Percent Change Trough (2010) to 4Q15 Percent Change $75 MT -3% MTS +19% MT +26% MTS +42% $72.64 DT +13% DT +27% $65.70 $65 $55 42% spread between MT and MTS taking rents 11% spread between MT and MTS taking rents $50.99 $45 $35 $25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Midtown Midtown South Downtown 14
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Taking Rent Corridor and Submarket Comparisons Average taking rents for direct deals with five-year terms and longer By Submarket MIDTOWN Average Base Taking Rent ($/SF) Plaza District $108.13 Park Avenue $84.46 Sixth Ave/Rock Ctr. $82.76 Far West Side $74.79 Westside $69.41 Grand Central $66.56 Times Square $64.64 Penn Station $61.95 Eastside $61.37 Times Square South $57.43 MIDTOWN SOUTH Hudson Square/ Meatpacking $78.74 Soho/Noho $78.17 Flatiron/Union Square $66.94 Chelsea $63.06 DOWNTOWN Downtown West $59.79 Downtown East $46.38 By Corridor MIDTOWN Upper Fifth Avenue (47th - 65th Streets) Average Base Taking Rent ($/SF) $109.67 Lexington Avenue $85.33 Avenue of the Americas $81.18 Madison Avenue $80.49 Park Avenue $76.50 Broadway $63.07 Lower Fifth Avenue (32nd - 47th Streets) $63.70 Third Avenue $61.63 MIDTOWN SOUTH Broadway $77.90 Fifth Avenue $74.55 Park Avenue South $69.24 West 20s $61.35 15
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Net Effective Rent Trends Average annual net effective rents for direct deals with five-year terms and longer Midtown $48.47 $50.31 $52.02 $58.34 $64.74 $64.18 Midtown South $37.13 $41.61 $43.54 $49.14 $61.27 $59.31 Downtown $32.09 $38.50 $35.90 $33.07 $38.44 $42.19 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Concessions for Select Submarkets for Long-Term Deals Concessions benchmarked for a standard ten-year term or longer, 10K SF and larger Average Work Amount ($/SF) Free Rent (months) Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller Center $71.81 Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller Center 10 Plaza District $70.46 Hudson Square/Meatpacking 10 Park Avenue $67.50 Times Square South 9 Grand Central $64.89 Park Avenue 9 Eastside $64.12 Grand Central 9 Westside $63.07 Westside 8 Downtown East $61.00 Plaza District 8 Times Square South $60.38 Penn Station 8 Hudson Square/Meatpacking $60.20 Flatiron/Union Square 8 Penn Station $58.16 Eastside 8 Downtown West $57.15 Downtown East 8 Flatiron/Union Square $56.06 Downtown West 7 -$5 $5 $15 $25 $35 $45 $55 $65 $75 0 2 4 6 8 10 Downtown Midtown South Midtown Downtown Midtown South Midtown 17
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Triple-Digit Taking Assets Number of buildings that signed $100+ taking rents each year 60 50 40 30 56 49 20 40 32 29 26 23 25 10 14 12 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Buildings with $100+ Taking Rents In 2015 YTD 452 Fifth Avenue 640 Fifth Avenue 712 Fifth Avenue 725 Fifth Avenue 745 Fifth Avenue 767 Fifth Avenue 101 Park Avenue 280 Park Avenue 350 Park Avenue 375 Park Avenue 390 Park Avenue 400 Park Avenue 450 Park Avenue 499 Park Avenue 500 Park Avenue 11 Madison Avenue 510 Madison Avenue 535 Madison Avenue 540 Madison Avenue 590 Madison Avenue 650 Madison Avenue 667 Madison Avenue 1140 Avenue of the Americas 1177 Avenue of the Americas 1251 Avenue of the Americas 1330 Avenue of the Americas 1345 Avenue of the Americas 1370 Avenue of the Americas 601 Lexington Avenue 787 Seventh Avenue 888 Seventh Avenue 12 East 49th Street 10 East 53rd Street 65 East 55th Street 250 West 55th Street 9 West 57th Street 40 West 57th Street 51 Astor Place 770 Broadway 860 Washington Street 18
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Manhattan Top-Tier Trends Number of deals signed annually with taking rents over $75/SF 250 In 2015, the number of deals over 225 $100/SF exceeded that of 2014. 200 31 22 In 2015, about 70% of deals over 175 150 42 47 21 34 52 $100/SF were relocations. These relocation deals averaged 10,937 square feet. 125 100 75 50 25 0 16 51 42 17 12 48 26 24 30 2 1 159 142 18 16 99 97 86 76 92 98 47 49 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The remaining 30% were renewals and expansions, which averaged 49,631 square feet. 2015 Taking Rents Over $75/SF TAMI Other Prof Svcs $75.00 - $99.99 $100.00 - $124.99 + $125 FIRE 19
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Midtown South Top-Tier Trends Number of deals signed annually with taking rents over $60/SF 125 The top-tier of Midtown South continued to grow in 2008. In total, 100 13 11 99 deals with taking rents over $60/SF were signed in 2015, the highest volume in the 75 market s history. The depth of this market becomes thinner for deals with taking rents 50 2 81 88 over $85/SF. In 2015, deals over $60/SF average 25 0 6 1 45 2 20 0 1 21 11 0 10 1 3 4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20,447 square feet. About 77% were relocations, while 23% were renewals and/or expansions. $60.00-$84.99 $85.00+ 20
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Midtown and Downtown Height Analysis 2015 Average Taking Rents by Floor Height Downtown MIDTOWN MIDTOWN TROPHY Tower Floors 30+: $55.80/SF Tower Floors 30+: $89.85/SF Tower Floors 30+: $119.32/SF Mid-Rise Floors 16-30: $46.49/SF Mid-Rise Floors 16-30: $73.27/SF Mid-Rise Floors 16-30: $102.96/SF Base Floors 2-15: $45.26/SF Base Floors 2-15: $62.17/SF Base Floors 2-15: $96.71/SF 21
4Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Midtown Asking Rents by Vintage Average Asking Rent by Decade of Construction ($/SF) Pre-1950 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2019 $59.76 $78.19 $83.27 $84.89 $82.34 $91.48 $103.56 $112.19 Select Buildings with Current Availability 350 Fifth Ave 1271 AofA 767 Fifth Ave 9 57th St W 590 Madison Ave 4 Times Sq 1 Bryant Park 1 Manhattan West 30 Rockefeller Plz 150 East 42nd St 200 Park Ave 1251 AofA 101 Park Ave 450 Lexington Ave 7 Times Sq 425 Park Ave 230 Park Ave 375 Park Ave 1345 AofA 1221 AofA 520 Madison Ave 712 Fifth Ave 222 East 41st St 55 Hudson Yards 237 Park Ave 380 Madison Ave 277 Park Ave 1633 Broadway 599 Lexington Ave 1177 AofA 11 Times Sq 420 Lexington Ave 666 Fifth Ave 399 Park Ave 601 Lexington Ave 65 East 55th St 420 Fifth Ave 250 West 55th St 405 Lexington Ave 650 Madison Ave 245 Park Ave 1211 AofA 1540 Broadway 152 West 57th St 390 Madison Ave 220 East 42nd St 1407 Broadway 1290 AofA 1 Penn Plz 335 Madison Ave 110 East 60th St 1045 AofA 60 East 42nd St 100 Park Ave 1301 AofA 1114 AofA 12 East 49th St 546 Fifth Ave 55 West 46th Str 75 Rockefeller Plz 300 Park Ave 280 Park Ave 1095 AofA 1675 Broadway 693 Fifth Ave 1 Park Ave 660 Madison Ave 450 West 33rd St 1133 AofA 1155 AofA 110 East 55th St 1400 Broadway 575 Lexington Ave 299 Park Ave 40 West 57th St 1325 AofA 22
4Q15 MANHATTAN DEVELOPMENT UPDATE
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 TBD Manhattan Development Update Commercial Development Pipeline Manhattan (MSF) 14 12 10 8 2014 837 Washington Street 1 WTC 2015 7 Bryant Park 2016 10 Hudson Yards 860 Washington Street 430 West 15th Street 510 West 22nd Street 2017 390 Madison Avenue 55 Hudson Yards 2018 3 WTC 425 Park Avenue 2019 1 Manhattan West 30 Hudson Yards 2020 One Vanderbilt Avenue TBD 50 Hudson Yards 2 WTC 2 Manhattan West 3 Hudson Boulevard Tishman Speyer Tower 341-347 Madison Avenue 6 New Construction 84.2 MSF Expected Delivery 13.8 MSF Potential Delivery 12.7 MSF 4 2 0 24
3Q14 Manhattan Development Update FAR WEST SIDE 4b 66 HUDSON BOULEVARD 6 5 6 1 3d 3c 3a 7 BRYANT PARK MANHATTAN WEST 3b 3 HUDSON BOULEVARD 341-347 MADISON AVENUE 4a 2 4a 425 PARK AVENUE 4b 450 WEST 33rd STREET 5 ONE VANDERBILT AVENUE 2 3a 390 MADISON AVENUE 55 HUDSON YARDS 3b 1 3d 3c Retail space 10, 30 & 50 HUDSON YARDS WORLD TRADE CENTER AND DOWNTOWN 2 WTC 1 1 WTC Memorial 2 3 4 3 WTC 4 WTC WTC Transportation Hub
4Q15 Manhattan Development Update WORLD TRADE CENTER PORT AUTHORITY OF NY/NJ, DURST 1 World Trade Center 2 World Trade Center SILVERSTEIN PROPERTIES 3 World Trade Center 1 2 3 4 4 World Trade Center 1 2 8 5 3,000,000 SF 2,800,000 SF 2,500,000 SF 2,300,000 SF 6 7 4Q 2014 TBD (2020 pending completed deal with anchor) 2018 2013 Completed Planned Under Construction Completed 3 104 stories +80 stories 80 stories 72 stories Signed Condé Nast, Moody s, High 5 Games, xad, and others News Corp. & 21st Century Fox signed an LOI Signed GroupM Signed MediaMath, Morningstar, IEX, and public sector tenants 4 INFRASTRUCTURE AND AMENITIES WTC Retail at 5 Fulton Center 6 7 Transportation 8 Brookfield Place Hub Westfield World Trade Retail 2014 2014-2015 2016 2016 Completed Completed Under Construction Under Construction Transit hub for nine subway lines serving 300,000 daily riders 200,000 SF of shopping and dining, completed in phases from 2014-2015. Calatrava-designed transit hub for the NJ PATH and retail 365,000 SF of retail in towers 3, 4, concourses, and the WTC Transportation Hub 26
4Q15 Manhattan Development Update FAR WEST SIDE Rendering not yet available THE RELATED COMPANIES 10 Hudson Yards BROOKFIELD PROPERTIES, QIA 5 Manhattan West 450 West 33rd St MITSUI FUDOSAN, OXFORD, RELATED 55 Hudson Yards THE RELATED COMPANIES 30 Hudson Yards BROOKFIELD PROPERTIES, QIA 1 Manhattan West BROOKFIELD PROPERTIES, QIA 2 Manhattan West MOINIAN GROUP 3 Hudson Boulevard 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TISHMAN SPEYER 66 Hudson Boulevard 9 THE RELATED COMPANIES 50 Hudson Yards 1,700,000 SF 1,800,000 SF 1,300,000 SF 2,600,000 SF 2,100,000 SF 2,100,000 SF 1,800,000 SF 2,850,000 SF 2,300,000 SF 2016 2016 (Renovation) 2017 2019 2019 TBD TBD (2019 pending anchor tenant) TBD (2020 pending anchor tenant) Under Construction Planned Under Construction Under Construction Planned Planned Planned Planned Planned 52 stories 16 stories 50 stories 90 stories 67 stories 67 stories each 66 stories 70 stories 62 stories Signed Coach, L Oréal, SAP, VaynerMedia Signed Chase Digital Media Signed Boies, Schiller & Flexner INFRASTRUCTURE AND AMENITIES Tenants include Time Warner, HBO, CNN, Warner Bros., KKR Signed Skadden Arps Mixed-use development possible Mixed-use development possible 7 8 Project in early stages of planning TBD Project in early stages of planning 7 Train Extension to 34th Street East Platform Over Rail Yards 15 Hudson Yards: Residential 35 Hudson Yards: Residential, Hotel, Retail 3 9 Completed 2018 TBD TBD Under Construction Under Construction Planned Mixed-use development possible 4 2 5 6 1 27
Fifth Avenue Second Avenue 4Q15 Manhattan Development Update MIDTOWN 59th Street Rendering not yet available Rendering not yet available 3 BANK OF CHINA 7 Bryant Park L&L HOLDING, RREEF 390 Madison Avenue L&L HOLDING COMPANY 425 Park Avenue SL GREEN One Vanderbilt Avenue 1 2 3 4 5 MTA 341-347 Madison Ave MILSTEIN PROPERTIES 335 Madison Avenue 470,521 SF 1,000,000 SF 670,000 SF 1,800,000 SF 900,000 SF max 1,800,000 SF max 2015 2017 2018 2020 TBD TBD Completed Renovation Under Construction Planned Proposed Proposed 6 30 stories 32 stories 47 stories 65 stories NA NA Bank of China will occupy 40% of the building L&L will restack the building to alter height and bulk Owners finalizing a deal with Citadel EAST MIDTOWN REZONING Signed TD Bank. Demolition planned for 2016 Owner seeking a developer Owner considering redevelopment for office or hotel use INFRASTRUCTURE 2 The Vanderbilt Corridor The City approved rezoning of the Vanderbilt Corridor including zoning applications for One Vanderbilt. The initiative will increase the potential for office development in exchange for public improvements and TDRs. The City approved zoning applications (ULURP) in May 2015. Greater East Midtown The City is also exploring a more comprehensive rezoning of Greater East Midtown. A stakeholder committee developed a set of principles that will shape the rezoning effort. Stakeholder committee recommendations were released in 2015. Rezoning is expected in 2016. Second Avenue Subway- Phase I LIRR East Side Access 2017 2022 Construction Phase I runs from 96th to 63rd Street Construction Connects the LIRR to Grand Central 1 5 6 4, NYC Department of City Planning 37th Street 28
4Q15 BROOKLYN AND LONG ISLAND CITY OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS
4Q15 Brooklyn Office Development and Redevelopment 25 Kent Avenue Domino Sugar Factory 87 Wythe Ave 10 Jay Street Williamsburg 68 Ferris Street Empire Stores Dumbo Dumbo Heights 420 Albee Square 41 Flatbush Avenue Building 3 Navy Yard Building 77 Dock 72 47 Hall Street 29 Ryerson Street GMC Building 128 333 Johnson Avenue 215 N. Moore Street Bushwick 121 Morgan Avenue 455 Jefferson Street 66-80 Third Avenue 95 Evergreen Ave Industry City Sunset Park Liberty View 850 Third Avenue Sunset Park Dumbo Navy Yard Williamsburg Whale Square Bushwick Other Projects 30
4Q15 Brooklyn Office Development and Redevelopment Overview Submarket Owner/ Developer Building Address Size (SF) Year Open Project Type Status Anchor Tenants Jamestown Prop, Belvedere Cap, Angelo Gordon Industry City 32nd to 41st St. SUNSET PARK Madison Realty Capital Whale Square 14 53rd St. Salmar Properties, NYC IDA Liberty View 850 Third Ave 6,000,000 405,416 1,240,000 In phases starting 2015 Redevelopment 2015-2016 2015 Redevelopment Redevelopment Underway Planned Completed Time, Inc., MakerBot, Brooklyn Nets Building to be re-tenanted Bed Bath Beyond DUMBO Kushner Companies, LIVWRK, RFR Realty Dumbo Heights 117 Adams St. 77 Sands St. 55 Prospect St. 81 Prospect St. 175 Pearl St. Midtown Equities Empire Stores 55 Water St. Triangle Assets 10 Jay St. 184,000 225,000 255,000 95,000 204,000 387,000 294,118 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 Redevelopment Redevelopment Redevelopment Redevelopment Redevelopment Redevelopment New Construction Completed Completed Completed Completed Completed Competed Underway Etsy Alexis Bittar Frog Design WeWork Seeking an anchor tenant West Elm Seeking an anchor tenant OTHER PROJECTS 420 Albee Square Downtown Brooklyn 400,000 SF JEMB Realty 422 Fulton Street Downtown Brooklyn Size TBD Tishman Speyer 47 Hall Street Clinton Hill 650,000 SF RXR, Westbrook Partners 29 Ryerson Street Clinton Hill 215,000 SF Madison Realty Capital 68 Ferris Street Red Hook 1,200,000 Estate Four 41 Flatbush Avenue Fort Greene 225,000 SF Quinian Dev Group, BLT NAVY YARDS WILLIAMSBURG BUSHWICK Rendering not yet available Rendering not yet available Brooklyn Navy Yard Development Corp. GMC Building 128 Boston Properties, Rudin Management Building 77 Building 3 Dock 72 215,000 1,100,000 700,000 675,000 2015 2017 2017 2018 Redevelopment Redevelopment Redevelopment New Construction Underway Underway Planned Planned Heritage Equity 25 Kent Avenue Two Trees Management Domino Sugar Factory Cayuga Capital 87 Wythe Avenue 400,000 600,000 (max) 100,000 2017 TBD 2017 New Construction Redevelopment New Construction Planned Planned Planned Normandy, Royalton, Sciame 333 Johnson Avenue Heritage Equity 215 N. Moore St. Savanna, Hornig Capital 95 Evergreen Avenue Princeton Holdings, Bruman Realty 121 Morgan Avenue Lincoln Property Group 455 Jefferson Street 285,000 SF 170,000 165,000 100,000 122,700 2017 2017 2016 TBD 2016 Redevelopment TBD Redevelopment Redevelopment Redevelopment Planned Planned Planned Planned Planned 31
4Q15 Brooklyn Office Development and Redevelopment Brooklyn Inventory Pipeline DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN SUNSET PARK DUMBO NAVY YARD WILLIAMSBURG/ BUSHWICK 2013 Inventory 15,985,404 6,000,000 3,254,111 2,875,330 1,532,155 Current Inventory 15,861,856 6,405,416 3,841,808 2,875,330 1,576,449 Projected Inventory Through 2017 16,086,856 6,405,416 3,841,808 3,550,330 3,107,401 Inventory Differential 2013-2017 101,452 405,416 587,697 675,000 1,575,246 0.6% SF DIFFERENCE 2013-2017 6.8% SF DIFFERENCE 2013-2017 18.1% SF DIFFERENCE 2013-2017 23.5% SF DIFFERENCE 2013-2017 102.8% SF DIFFERENCE 2013-2017 32
4Q15 Brooklyn and Long Island City Office Market Analysis Dumbo and Downtown Brooklyn Trends Overall Average Asking Rent and Availability $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Average asking rents reached $51.99/SF in the fourth quarter, up 19% from last quarter. The increase was driven by the addition of a highpriced block of space at 55 Water Street (Empire Stores). In 2015, Frog Design, a division of Time, Inc., and Milk Studios signed deals to relocate to Brooklyn from Manhattan, joining NADAP and Paycom in an early trend of Manhattan-based tenants moving to or expanding in the borough. $20 2% 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 Average Asking Rent (Price/SF) Availability (%) 33
4Q15 Brooklyn and Long Island City Office Market Analysis Brooklyn Submarket Snapshot Upper New York Bay Bay Ridge Fort Hamilton Lower New York Bay Red Hook DUMBO BK Heights Cobble Hill Sunset Park Borough Park Dyker Heights Sea Gate Bath Beach Navy Yard Clinton Hill Fort Greene Park Slope Prospect Heights Prospect Park Windsor Terrace Kensington Bensonhurst Gravesend Coney Island Brighton Beach Greenpoint Williamsburg Bushwick Prospect Park South Flatbush Midwood Bedford Stuyvesant Crown Heights Lefferts Gardens Sheepshead Bay Manhattan Beach East Flatbush Marine Park Flatlands Brownsville BK Marine Park Gerritsen Beach Canarsie Bergen Beach Mill Basin Barren Island Cypress Hills East New York Jamaica Bay DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN Total Inventory: 15,861,856 SF Availability Rate: 2.5% Average Asking Rent, Prime Assets: $45.85/SF Average Asking Rent, Standard Assets: $40.27/SF YTD Absorption: 72,774 SF Recent Significant Transaction: WeWork signed 76,580 square feet at 195 Montague Street in the fourth quarter, establishing its third location Brooklyn. DUMBO Total Inventory: 3,841,808 SF Availability Rate: 21.8% Average Asking Rent, Prime Assets: $55.53/SF Average Asking Rent, Standard Assets: $33.88/SF YTD Absorption: 10,419 SF Recent Significant Transaction: Design consulting firm, Frog Design signed for 27,000 square feet at 55 Prospect Street, moving from Manhattan. The Empire Stores at 55 Water Street represented a record high weighted average asking rent of $69.52/SF. SUNSET PARK Total Inventory: 6,405,416 SF Direct Average Asking Rent: $27.50/SF Recent Significant Transaction: Design agency Raison Pure International signed 14,308 square feet for 10 years at Industry City. BROOKLYN NAVY YARD Total Inventory: 2,875,330 SF Direct Average Asking Rent: $37.00/SF Recent Significant Transaction: Eight fashion and creative tenants signed leases at the Navy Yard in 2015, taking a total 36,387 square feet. Developers of Dock 72 (new supply due in 2018) are asking top Brooklyn rents, which will push the submarket average up when added to the market. WILLIAMSBURG / BUSHWICK Total Inventory: 1,576,449 SF Availability Rate: 20.7% Direct Average Asking Rent: $51.62/SF YTD Absorption: 16,912 SF Recent Significant Transaction: Adidas announced plans to sign 20,000 square feet above Brooklyn Brewery at 118 N. 11th Street to house its design studio. Prime Assets are Class A and newly repositioned space. Standard Assets are all other office inventory. 34
4Q15 Brooklyn and Long Island City Office Market Analysis Brooklyn and Long Island City Submarket Rent Comparison Average Asking Rents ($/SF) $90 $80 $80.97 Tenants making a value play from Midtown South and Downtown into $70 $69.51 Brooklyn s prime assets in Dumbo find a shallow rent reduction, with $60 $50 $45.85 $51.62 $55.53 $60.90 asking rents for prime Dumbo assets $5.37/SF lower than Downtown. $40 $37.00 $37.25 Long Island City offers proximity to $30 $27.50 Midtown at a fraction of the cost. $20 $10 $0 Sunset Park Prime Brooklyn Navy Yard Prime Long Island City Prime Downtown Brooklyn Prime Williamsburg / Bushwick Prime Dumbo Prime Downtown Manhattan Overall Midtown South Overall Midtown Overall Prime Assets are Class A and newly repositioned space. Standard Assets are all other office inventory. 35
4Q15 Brooklyn and Long Island City Office Market Analysis Long Island City Trends Overall Average Asking Rent and Availability $35 $30 20% 16% Premium-priced conversion space pushed asking rents to an all-time high of $34.28/SF, up from $32.90/SF the prior quarter and $30.21/SF the same time last year. $25 $20 $15 12% 8% 4% Prime buildings continued to attract tenants this quarter, with Uber leasing 22,000 SF at The Falchi Building and Polo Ralph Lauren taking 18,987 SF at the Factory Building. $10 0% 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 Average Asking Rent (Price/SF) Availability (%) 36
4Q15 Brooklyn and Long Island City Office Market Analysis Long Island City Transformation Statistics 8 subway lines and the Long Island Rail Road serve Long Island City. There are 4.9 million workers within a 60-minute commute of Court Square, exceeding Fulton Center (4.4 million) and Union Square (4.5 million), and comparable to Penn Station and Grand Central (5 million each). ACCESS TO WORKERS RESIDENTIAL GROWTH 34,500 residents live in Long Island City, up 18% in the last 5 years. There are 22,500 new residential units in the construction pipeline. Millennials comprise 27% of Long Island City population, a greater percentage than Manhattan (21%), and New York City (17%). 23% of total office inventory (2.5 MSF) has been repositioned in the last 3 years. Another office and retail project totaling 595,000 SF is under construction, scheduled for delivery in 2016. IMPROVED OFFICE INVENTORY AMENITIES 26 new hotels are in the construction pipeline. There has been a recent increase in retail amenities, including coffee houses, gourmet restaurants and nightlife options. Long Island City includes major cultural institutions like MoMA PS1 and Socrates Sculpture Park., Regional Plan Association, Long Island City Partnership, US Census Bureau, ESRI 37
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