New Development Year-End Report MANHATTAN 2,775 PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE 2,268 BROOKLYN 1,34 PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE 1,335 PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED 1,98 1,167 PER SQ. FT. CLOSED PER SQ. FT. CLOSED 4,25 694 21% YoY 31% YoY AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* *Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
Summary Points 21 UNITS New Development absorption in 215 was robust, with an average of 21 units sold per month in Manhattan and an average of 51 units per month in Brooklyn. 25% Avg. PPSF for Contract Signed new development units in Brooklyn rose 18.2% year-over-year to 1,335 from 1,129 PSF in 214. In Manhattan, Avg. PPSF for Contract Signed units rose 2.4% to 2,268 PSF from 2,215 in 214. With 611 total Contract Signed and Closed units in 215, the Brooklyn new development market is now 25% as large as the Manhattan market by transaction volume, up sharply from 1.5% in 214. New Development deal volume increased 169% in Brooklyn year-over-year, up from 223 units in 214. The volume of Manhattan Closed deals in the 1M-4M price range rose 17% from 1,128 units in 214 to 1,318 in 215. 49.2% of all new Active development listings in Manhattan are priced above 5M, down from 52% in 214. 18.2% 1M-4M 2,152 In Manhattan, Midtown East experienced the largest Avg. PPSF rise for Contract Signed units to 2,152, a 19% YoY increase, followed by the Upper West Side with a 13.3% year-over-year increase to 2,12 PSF. (Excludes Billionaire s Row) MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT. MANHATTAN Active 2,364 1,34 Contract Signed 2,132 1,31 PER SQ. FT. Closed 1,739 1,177 Active 2,775 1,34 Contract Signed 2,268 1,335 MEDIAN PRICE Closed 1,98 1,167 BROOKLYN Active 4,987,5 1,71, Contract Signed 3,, 1,625, Closed 1,991,651 941,5 Active 8,285,586 2,152,694 Contract Signed 4,513,433 1,946,32 TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS) Closed 3,592,676 1,116,862 Total 9,44 1,73 Units Available 4,25 694 % Closed or Contract Signed 53.% 59.2% HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Second Quarter Report 2
Introduction HPDM is pleased and excited to present our Year-End New Development Report for 215. This report focuses exclusively on the NYC new development condominium market, and aims to be the only report of its kind presenting a comprehensive picture of new development activity. New development is unique from the overall real estate market in that closings often do not occur until 12 to 18 months after a buyer enters into contract. To fully understand this market it is critical to track active listings, listings in contract, closed listings, as well as total inventory. This report analyzes 215 as a whole and is also a snapshot of current new development market conditions. New development pricing was again robust in 215. With an average Contract Signed Price per Sq. Ft. of 2,268 in Manhattan and 1,335 in Brooklyn, we expect to see a strong pricing dynamic continue into the 1st Quarter of 216. METHODOLOGY: All data is provided by proprietary Halstead Property Development Marketing research. This report tracks new development projects only, defined as those new to the market and currently selling sponsor units. Buildings that have fully sold out of sponsor units are not included, even though they may have recently been built. Resale data is not included in this report. All listings were compiled as of 12/14/15. Total Inventory is defined as all units within new development projects that are currently listed as Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are currently listed as Active as well as those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 215, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. By including currently unreleased units that are not yet listed as Active, this report provides a unique and comprehensive analysis of the current new development market. TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET OVERVIEW... 4 MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT... 6 ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE...7 PRICE POINT ANALYSIS...8 TOTAL INVENTORY... 9 FURTHER INSIGHT...1 CONTACT...11 HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 3
Market Overview Downtown saw the most development activity in Manhattan in 215 with over 96 units either entering into contract or closing. Next to Billionaire s Row, Downtown Manhattan also continues to be the area with the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at 2,782, essentially unchanged year-over-year. Closed deals in Downtown Manhattan averaged 2,9 PSF in 215, a 16% increase year-over-year. Brooklyn saw over 6 new developments enter into contract or close in 215, up from 223 in 214, representing a 169% increase in deal volume. CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. 6, GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS 53 968 NUMBER OF UNITS 1, 5, 4, 3, 133 388 193 37 4,765 4,36 321 611 1, 8 6 2, 1, 1,26 841 1,893 1,75 2,625 1,973 1,534 1,784 2,8 2,464 2,115 1,275 1,366 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** 4 ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 942 1,19 967 2,214 2,12 1,681 2,295 2,125 2,173 1,962 1,734 1,688 5,852 5,644 4,624 2,585 2,152 1,946 2,782 2,545 2,9 1,34 1,335 1,167 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 4
Market Overview by Quarter The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter. Harlem again saw the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in Average PPSF at over 11%, rising to 1,112. The Upper East Side experienced an 8% increase QoQ to 2,153 PSF, while Downtown Manhattan increased 5.6% to 2,343 PSF CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 6, 5, 4, 4,849 4,981 4,848 5,43 3, 2, 1, 1,27 849 994 1,112 1,585 2,212 1,898 1,745 2,153 2,158 1,993 2,153 1,82 1,769 1,674 1,669 1,931 2,16 1,975 1,977 2,274 2,382 2,218 2,343 1,231 1,314 1,291 1,265 2,548 2,325 1,245 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN** * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 5
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight UPTOWN, MIDTOWN. AND DOWNTOWN Outside of Billionaire s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in Manhattan was achieved in the West Village at 3,46 PSF followed by West Chelsea at 3,133 for 215. The highest average Closed pricing outside of Billionaire s Row occurred in the West Village at 2,822 PSF followed by NoHo at 2,757 PSF. UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 942 1,19 967 2,214 2,12 1,681 2,295 2,125 2,173 2,326 2,243 1,824 5,852 5,644 4,624 2,585 2,152 1,946 3,61 2,89 2,447 3,165 3,133 2,439 1,827 1,571 1,675 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST CHELSEA WEST CHELSEA HELL'S KITCHEN DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1,997 1,92 3,165 2,817 2,279 3,14 2,274 2,281 3,588 2,57 3,721 2,544 2,757 3,87 2,322 2,137 4,357 3,46 2,822 1,624 1,442 2,467 2,25 2,164 2,624 1,445 GRAMERCY PARK FLATIRON GREENWICH VILLAGE SOHO NOHO TRIBECA WEST VILLAGE EAST VILLAGE LES FINANCIAL DISTRICT * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 6
Analysis by Unit Type MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN In 215 two bedroom units experienced the most deal volume by unit type in both Manhattan and Brooklyn, with approximately 86 two bedroom units entering into contract or closing in Manhattan, while over two bedroom units were sold in Brooklyn. Median Contract Signed pricing for two bedrooms in Manhattan continues to rise, increasing over 12.5% to 3.5M year-over-year. In Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for two bedrooms rose 15.5% YoY to 1.59M. In Manhattan, three bedrooms have the most Active listings, while two bedrooms comprise the most Active listings in Brooklyn. MANHATTAN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE MANHATTAN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM 18M 16M 14M 12M 1M 8M 6M 4M 2M TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 159 755 35 772 138 1.15M 725K 78K 1.49M 1.64M 1.19M 2.98M 3.5M 2.12M 6.3M 5.95M 4.62M 8.91M 7.87M 7.15M 9.51M 8.77M STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED 5 BED 16.52M 99 NUMBER OF UNITS 1 8 6 4 5 45 4 35 3 25 15 5 42 228 41 459 237 12 33 93 13 173 24 199 229 259 267 STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 144 153 88 118 4 BED 48 22 29 5 BED BROOKLYN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE BROOKLYN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM 4.5M TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 272 NUMBER OF UNITS 3 16 4M 3.5M 3M 2.5M 2M 1.5M 1M 5K 56 53K 537K 588K 233 877K 92K 725K 1.59M 1.59M 1.42M 183 2.6M 2.31M 2.44M 3.99M 74 3.7M 3.54M 25 15 5 &'" 14 12 8 6 4 2 1 14 32 49 57 119 66 65 69 67 14 63 53 48 118 12 29 43 STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED 2 HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 7
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN 49.2% of all new development listings in Manhattan are priced above 5M. This number is down from 52% in 214. 22% remain priced above 1M, essentially inline year-over-year. Additionally, the volume of Contract Signed and Closed deals in the 1M-4M price range rose 17% from 1,128 in 214 to 1,318 in 215. Brooklyn saw a sharp increase in deal volume within the 2M - 4M price range, with 149 units closed or contract signed at this price point in 215 versus 42 in 214. This 25% increase YoY illustrates market absorption of higher priced units in the borough. 215 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN ACTIVE MANHATTAN CONTRACT SIGNED MANHATTAN CLOSED 49.1% 8.1% 8.8% 12.9% 16.5% 4.5% 6.1% 6.1% 1.8% 2.5% 3.4% 9.4% 21.5% 24.7% 27.5% 31.9% 27.7% 38.4% 3.2% 9.5% 14.1% 16.4% 21.% 8.9% 2.8% 5.2% 8.% 15.2% 33.6% 17.1% 215 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN ACTIVE BROOKLYN CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN CLOSED.%.6% 1.7% 6.3% 35.1% 56.3% HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 8
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN The largest amount of total inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Upper West Side, followed closely by the Financial District. In Brooklyn the highest total inventory is found in Williamsburg, Prospect Heights, and DUMBO. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding percentage of units sold. Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, currently listed as Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 215, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by including unreleased units. MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY 14 1 8 6 4 TOTAL UNITS 64% 239 4% 133 PERCENT SOLD 47% 987 59% 169 49% 588 5% 871 88% 84 72% 165 56% 515 95% 74 76% 535 58% 48 32% 216 8% 31 64% 876 75% 445 26% 46% 19 97 45% PERCENTAGE SOLD 1171 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BN. ROW* MIDTOWN EAST CHELSEA WEST CHELSEA HELL'S KITCHEN GRAM. PARK FLATIRON GREEN. VILLAGE SOHO NOHO TRIBECA WEST VILLAGE EAST VILLAGE LES FINANCIAL DISTRICT BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY 4 TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD 9% 91% 85% 88% PERCENTAGE SOLD 35 3 25 66% 23% 74% % 28% 345 54% 322 53% 378 9 8 7 6 15 5 135 BROOKLYN HEIGHTS 32 CARROLL GARDENS 13 CLINTON HILLS 36 CROWN HEIGHTS 173 BOERUM HILL 144 DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN 18 213 DUMBO 16 GREEN POINT PROSPECT HEIGHTS 22 PARK SLOPE WILLIAMSBURG 5 4 3 2 1 * Billionaire s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 9
16 Further Insight MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development activity by volume in 215, followed by Brooklyn and the Upper West Side. Most notably, Contract Signed volume increased to 437 units in Brooklyn from 194 in 214, a 125% increase reflecting the continued emergence of Brooklyn s new development market. Additionally, over closings occurred in both Midtown East and Midtown West in 215, reflecting the delivery of units that entered into contract in 214. MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE Studio and one bedroom sizes remain very similar in both Manhattan and Brooklyn, though in larger unit types median square footage in Manhattan continue to reflect oversized units in the luxury market. MANHATTAN BROOKLYN UNITS 6 SQ.FT 5, 5 4 3 85 18 87 187 21 84 97 224 59 99 28 65 6 47 351 533 435 22 37 151 213 437 174 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 57 479 799 715 1,441 1,151 2,227 1,743 3,29 2,582 4,31 2,888 UES UWS MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST BN ROW* DOWNTOWN UPPER MANHATTAN BKLYN** STUDIO 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR 4 BR 5 BR HPDM HPDMNY.COM 215 Year-End Report 1
Contact COMING THIS QUARTER 251 First Park Slope 318 West 47th Street Hell s Kitchen 251First.com 445 Park Avenue, 12th Floor New York, NY 22 HPDMNY.com 212 521 5757 Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Chief Market and Planning Analyst. The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM s prior consent. For questions or comments regarding this report please contact research@hpdmny.com