Economic Overview CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET MONITOR SECOND QUARTER 2015 Chicago s industrial market thrives during the second quarter. Demand across the Chicago industrial market remains high sending absorption up and vacancy down. Chicago s diverse economy continued to strengthen throughout the first half of 2015. The metropolitan area added more than 56,500 jobs since mid-2014, and unemployment dropped an impressive 100 basis points (bps) to 6.7% over the same period. The supersectors that recorded the highest year-over-year growth in employment were professional and business services as well as trade, transportation, and utilities, adding over 18,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively. The manufacturing and financial services sectors saw employment remain flat. To increase advanced manufacturing employment within the city of Chicago, the World Business Chicago organization along with several other public/private institutions have created the The 1000 Jobs campaign. Their goal is to aide 1,000 local individuals gain employment within the manufacturing sector. To-date, the campaign has raised $1 million in private funding and has created several hundred full-time employment opportunities and in-job training programs all within the advanced manufacturing sector. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Chicago Historical Historical Employment Job Growth Growth The housing market remained active. Home sales rose 7% over mid-2014, the fourth month in a row to post an increase. Sales within the city of Chicago rose a dramatic 10% over the same period with median home prices for the metropolitan area recording a 7.2% increase, ending the quarter at $222,000. Following the nationwide trend of renting versus buying, rental rates across the Chicagoland continued to rise. This trend will continue throughout the remainder of 2015 and will directly affect the commercial real estate market. Chicago s unemployment rate continues to fall. Down to 6.7% as of May 2015. The metro Chicago area added over 56,500 jobs since mid-2014. This correlates to a 1.2% increase in jobs compared to 2.2% nationally. Active manufacturing licenses within the market remained relatively unchanged since mid-2014. According to World Business Chicago, Chicago enjoys a highly diversified economy with no single industry employing more than 14% of the workforce. Job growth for the remainder of 2015 and into 2016 is expected to occur in industries such as professional and business services, education and health services, and technology. The most active industry in the Chicagoland area during the second quarter of 2014 was the professional and business services sector, which added 18,000 jobs. While job creation in the manufacturing sector remained stagnant. Partnership. Performance. - 1 -
Chicago Industrial Market Monitor Second Quarter 2015 Industrial Market Overview Comprised of over 1 bsf, the Chicago industrial market witnessed record-breaking growth during the second quarter of 2015. Increased leasing activity has pushed absorption up and vacancy down surpassing prerecession levels. Rental rates have become increasingly competitive, causing a slight shift in market conditions favoring landlords over users. Construction of both speculative and build-tosuit projects remains strong across the market. Infill development continued to track investor/developer interest, especially within submarkets located in more urban areas that are inundated with older buildings where land is limited. This follows the trend of users wanting to be located closer to workforce and transportation hubs. Vacancy Rates Asking Rents ABSORPTION & DEMAND Absorption within the market surged throughout the second quarter and was recorded at 6.4 msf, up 296% over last quarter. The I-88 Corridor was the most active, with 843,000 sf of space absorbed up from negative 108,000 sf during the first quarter. It was followed by the O Hare submarket which saw 398,000 sf absorbed, also up from a negative amount the previous quarter. While overall absorption is up across the market, several submarkets continue to struggle. Both the I-57 and I-39 Corridors witnessed declining absorption since the first quarter. Leasing activity remained strong during the second quarter, with 10.4 msf leased up 10% from last quarter. The most notable second quarter transactions included Saddle Creek Logistics leasing 1.1 msf within a new build-to-suit located in the I-80 East Corridor. Once completed, the facility will employ 250 people. Also, Fellowes Inc. leased 499,000 sf within a new build-to-suit located in the I-55 Corridor. The new facility will serve as the company s main U.S. distribution facility, consolidating operations from three local sites totaling 525,000 sf. With several large tenants actively looking in the market and a healthy mid-sized deal pipeline expected to continue, activity should remain strong throughout the remainder of 2015. Top Leases Tenant Submarket Size (SF) Saddle Creek Logistics I-80 East Corridor 1,114,575 Ozburn-Hessey Logistics I-55 Corridor 541,123 Fellowes, Inc I-88 Corridor 499,154 Amazon I-80 East Corridor 475,104 Net Absorption Midwest Refrigerated Services Top Sales Southern Wisconsin 411,415 Address Buyer Seller Sales Price JP Morgan Portfolio 4 Buildings IL,WI Exeter Property Group JP Morgan $43,000,000 ($48.07 PSF) 2500 S Damen Ave Chicago, IL AAG Management Romel Enterprises $33,000,000 ($257.41 PSF) 14020 S Coil Plus Dr Plainfield, IL Diageo North America TA Realty $10,100,000 ($37.10 PSF) 3700 S Kedzie Ave Chicago, IL Tricor Pacific Capital Arbor Investments $10,000,000 ($62.50 PSF) - 2 -
Chicago Industrial Market Monitor Second Quarter 2015 VACANCY & AVAILABILITY The overall Chicago industrial market continued to record a falling vacancy rate, down 80 bps year-over-year to 7%. Most submarkets witnessed decreases in vacancy when compared to last quarter, the most notable being the I-80 East Corridor, McHenry County, and South Cook submarkets down 250 bps to 7.4%, 130 bps to 10.1% and 60 bps to 6.9%, respectively. The O Hare submarket became increasingly tight throughout the first half of 2015, and vacancy dropped to 5.3%. This submarket, along with East DuPage and the US-64 Corridor, should see more infill development throughout the remainder of the year. Both The I-90 West/Elgin Corridor and the I-55 Corridor saw moderate upticks in vacancy during the second quarter. This is a direct correlation to several large speculative buildings being recently completed and remaining vacant. Higher taxes in Cook County have driven several tenants to migrate into surrounding DuPage and Will Counties, resulting in higher vacancy rates within many Cook County submarkets, such as North and West Cook. RENTAL RATES Asking rental rates have continued to trend upward. They are up 9.6% over last year, averaging $4.68 psf during the second quarter. Rental rates have been trending upwards an average of 2.3% per quarter since the beginning of 2013. The O Hare and I-55 Corridor submarkets have the highest asking rents within the market, recorded at $7.10 and $6.08 psf, respectively. Rental rates have become more competitive, especially in submarkets where demand is high, which has caused a slight shift in market conditions favoring landlords over users. CONSTRUCTION Construction activity continued to thrive across the market. There was 5 msf of industrial product delivered during the second quarter with another 8.5 msf under construction. Submarkets such as the I-80 East Corridor and O Hare have seen the most construction activity year-to-date recording 3.3 and 1.1 msf, respectively. Southern Wisconsin continued to benefit from a construction boom with 1.9 msf having been delivered and another 1.1 msf under construction during the second quarter. Notable projects include Michelin Tire s 1.7 msf buildto-suit located in the I-80 East Corridor, which is nearing completion. The Bensenville Business Center, located within the O Hare submarket, is an infill project that will add 184,000 sf of speculative space upon completion. With space in DuPage County increasingly tight, The Opus Group and USAA have announced that they will be breaking ground on a 423,726-sf build-to-suit in the I-90 East Corridor submarket. Construction activity will likely remain active throughout the remainder of 2015 and into next year as many developments are slated to break ground. INVESTMENT Investment in industrial product continued to record-high pricing as market fundamentals propel investor appetite. Cap rates continue to compress, averaging 7.5%, which is nearing prerecession levels. Overall, sale prices are on the rise. On a per-square-foot basis, pricing remained consistent at $54 psf. User sale prices continue to rise as many owners are trying to capitalize on current market conditions. Notable second quarter investment sales transactions included the JP Morgan portfolio sale which consisted of four properties located throughout the market and totaling 894,000 sf. Exeter Property Trust purchased the portfolio for $43 million, or $47 psf. AAG Management acquired a freezer/cold-storage property located at 2500 South Damen Avenue within the Chicago Industrial submarket for $33 million, or $257 psf, from Romel Enterprises. The higher than average psf sale price was due to the building being a freezer/cold-storage product type which includes added infrastructure. Investor demand for industrial product shows no signs of losing steam, and high prices are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Recently Completed Buildings Address Developer Submarket Size (SF) Type Amazon Building I KTR Capital Southern Wisconsin 1,015,740 Build-to-Suit 14100 Weber Dr Duke Realty I-90 West/Elgin Corridor 757,120 Build-to-Suit 8495 116th St Uline CenterPoint Southern Wisconsin 521,000 Build-to-Suit 14908 Gougar Rd S ML Realty Partners I-55 Corridor 512,265 Speculative 5959 W Howard St Fedex Distribution Center Scanell Properties North Cook 350,000 Build-to-Suit - 3 -
Chicago Industrial Market Monitor Second Quarter 2015 Market By Numbers Submarket Inventory (sf) Vacancy (sf) Vacancy (%) Net Absorption Under Construction Avg Asking Rent North Cook 41,446,508 2,414,463 5.8% 398,234 0 $6.36 O Hare 112,104,572 5,899,101 5.3% 455,813 1,121,046 $7.10 I-90 East Corridor 19,319,147 1,417,665 7.3% 12,375 302,000 $5.71 I-90 West/Elgin Corridor 29,504,119 2,937,655 10.0% 721,715 210,720 $5.59 Lake County 66,817,775 4,979,920 7.5% 77,131 860,488 $4.96 McHenry County 22,381,885 2,258,910 10.1% 235,638 0 $4.25 West Cook 46,659,804 2,965,151 6.4% (74,964) 0 $4.33 East DuPage 33,181,206 1,658,789 5.0% 105,293 0 $5.24 US-64 Corridor 65,041,284 3,581,989 5.5% 402,381 290,925 $4.82 I-88 Corridor 51,818,217 2,721,896 5.3% 843,452 0 $4.29 South Cook 75,971,205 5,260,685 6.9% 366,523 0 $5.03 I-55 Corridor 85,229,068 6,748,687 7.9% 524,062 551,349 $6.08 I-80 East Corridor 60,078,349 4,429,909 7.4% 260,334 3,389,442 $3.82 I-80 West Corridor 10,718,093 642,633 6.0% 38,154 0 $4.30 I-57 Corridor 19,379,610 1,380,837 7.1% (87,600) 0 $3.80 I-39 Corridor 44,365,854 3,910,697 8.8% 61,403 186,000 $3.28 Chicago Industrial 169,555,494 14,499,739 8.6% 1,069,681 316,680 $4.80 Southern Wisconsin 26,134,277 843,877 3.2% 1,101,891 1,152,580 $4.18 Overall Market 1,048,981,189 73,356,673 7.0% 6,490,169 8,541,043 $4.68 Key Terms Vacancy The vacancy rate is the percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. This represents both direct and sublease space. Net Absorption - The net change in occupied space over a given period of time and includes both direct and sublease space. Speculative Construction A property that is being built with no commitment from a tenant. Build-to-Suit Construction A property that is being built for a specific tenant. Cap Rate is the expected rate of return based on the projected income that a property will generate. Calculated by dividing the annual net operating income by the sales price. - 4 -
Chicago Industrial Market Monitor First Quarter 2015 Leasing Activity Trends 7,800,000 6,800,000 5,800,000 4,800,000 3,800,000 2,800,000 1,800,000 800,000 Net Absorption Leasing Activity 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Demand across the Chicago industrial market remains high sending absorption up and vacancy down. -200,000 0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Properties Under Construction Address Developer Submarket Size (SF) Type 24593 Lorenzo Rd Ridge Property Trust I-55 Corridor 1,700,000 Build-to-Suit CenterPoint Dr - Saddle Creek Logistics CenterPoint I-80 East Corridor 1,114,575 Build-to-Suit 555 Northwest Ave Bridge Development O Hare 588,233 Speculative 29700 Graaskamp Blvd Ridge Property Trust I-80 East Corridor 574,867 Speculative 1243 Gregory Dr IDI Gazeley I-90 West/Elgin Corridor 454,276 Speculative 11681 88th Ave CenterPoint Properties Southern Wisconsin 411,415 Speculative Trends to Watch Population Growth: Census data shows that the Chicago area population remained relatively flat over the past several years. Employment: Job growth continues to rise in all sectors and unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. Active Markets: I-88 Corridor, O Hare, and Southern Wisconsin. Market Drivers: E-commerce, Third-party Logistics, Professional and Business Services. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN WAS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED RELIABLE; HOWEVER, AVISON YOUNG MAKES NO GUARANTEES, WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS AS TO THE COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY THEREOF. THE PRESENTATION OF THIS PROPERTY IS SUBMITTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGE OF PRICE, OR CONDITIONS, PRIOR TO SALE OR LEASE, OR WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE. For more information: avisonyoung.com 2015 Avison Young - Chicago, LLC All rights reserved. Gregory Rogalla, Research Analyst 847.637.0704 gregory.rogalla@avisonyoung.com - 5 -