Competing on Place: What it Means for the Suburbs October 19, 2017 Geoffrey Anderson President and CEO Christopher Zimmerman Vice President for Economic Development 1
Oklahoma City Had the best incentives but lost the firm Embarked on major program including: entertainment district, ball park, waterfront improvements Mayor believes jobs will move to where people want to live
Demographics 75.4 million Millenialsare under 35, and 74.9 million Boomers (PEW). These are currently the country s two largest demographics making up half the U.S. population and they both like mixed-used, walkable neighborhoods served by transit.
Attracting new residents Young professionals 64% of collegeeducated 25- to 34- year-olds looked for a job after they chose the city where they wanted to live. - U.S. Census
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Millennial Preferences 47% 12% 40%
Changing demographics: decline in households with children Households with children Households without children 1960 2000 2025 48% 33% 28% 52% 67% 72% Single households 13% 26% 28%
Suburban LLSFH Oversupply
Home Prices as a Function of Distance GENTRIFICATION AND THE RISING RETURNS TO SKILL Lena Edlund Cecilia Machado Maria Micaela Sviatschi Working Paper 21729 http://www.nber.org/p apers/w21729 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2015
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The Return of Downtowns 63% of jobs in metro areas were within 3 miles of the traditional city center in 1960 16% in 1996 23% in 2013
To attract and retain talented I can tell you 100 percent that when we are trying to attract new talent, being downtown and having a new open office feel, and being in a much more vibrant location is a differentiator. - Kent McNeil, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Bumble Bee Seafoods, San Diego, CA workers
There is a price/value premium for walkable places 2016 study ranks the top 30 US metropolitan areas in walkability Key findings: All 30 metros show rental rate premiums for walkable urban office, retail and rental multi-family. Average is 74% over their drivable suburban competition. All 30 metros have seen walkable urban market share gains between 2010-2015 in occupied space while drivable sub-urban has seen market share losses. 16
Walkable Urban Places... walkable urban places and projects will drive tomorrow s real estate industry and the economy 17
Development Density TO SUM UP Development Location Greenfield Infill Low-density Low or negative Moderate High-density Moderate High positive 18
Villa Italia in Lakewood, CO This Gets Crushed. (photo: Chris Zimmerman Oct 2011) 19
Belmar in Lakewood, CO By This 800 units residential (own and rent) 880,000 sq ft retail 250,000 sq ft office 20
Suburbs Face Threats Shaky Value in Large Lot Single Family Housing Commercial and Retail Under Assault Still the Place for Kids And Opportunities
Remaking suburban corridors Redeveloping commercial strips & single-story, single-purpose commercial sites Examples of successful growth strategies through walkable development
Before Mizner Park Boca Raton, FL
Mizner Park Boca Raton, FL After
Belmar Lakewood, Colorado Before
Belmar Lakewood, Colorado After
Before (1999) Belmar Lakewood, Colorado After (2016)
Before Mosaic Merrifield, Virginia
After Mosaic Merrifield, Virginia
Mosaic Merrifield, Virginia Before (2002) After (2016)
Columbia Pike Transforming an auto-oriented strip into a walkable main street 31
Columbia Pike Photo: Mimi X. Ho (Columbia Pike Documentary Project) Suburban strip characterized by car-oriented development
Adams Square Shopping Center Old grocery store, small commercial strip, a lot of asphalt Photo: Lloyd Wolfe (Columbia Pike Documentary Project) Photo: Lloyd Wolfe (Columbia Pike Documentary Project) 33
Adams Square Shopping Center - 2009 Just prior to demolition & construction Adams Square (photo: Chris Zimmerman 2009) 34
Penrose Square project newly opened - 2011 Almost the same location as the previous picture. Replacement grocery store is at right, one floor up. Civic plaza ( Penrose Square ) at left. 35 (photo: Chris Zimmerman Oct 2011)
Penrose Square (former parking lot)
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Transitions what faces the neighborhood? 38
Old, pedestrian un-friendly buildings (circa 2002) Photo-shopped pedestrians 39
Same site (2010) 6 stories 5 of apartments 30,000 sq. ft. groundfloor retail 40
(photo: Chris Zimmerman 2012) (photo: Chris Zimmerman Oct 2011) And now we have actual pedestrians. 41
Shirlington Converting a one-block strip shopping center to a mixed-use development 42
Shirlington Village 1989 Before redevelopment, site was dominated by parking lots. Red areas were all surface parking. 43
Shirlington Village 2010 After completion, new building and streets replace almost all surface lots. Five parking structures located behind building frontages, just one small remaining surface lot. 44
New street grid and network of sidewalks New traffic signals, intersection improvements connect to an adjacent arterial street and the regional park ½ mile of new landscaped connecting sidewalks link to an adjacent neighborhood Creating a Pedestrian-Friendly Environment 45
Active sidewalks seating, permeable facades 46
Residential units over retail 47
Shirlington Apartments (rental & condo) over street-level retail Including a 2-story grocery --------------------- 1,000 residential units 300,000 sq ft retail 580,000 sq ft office 57,000 sq ft library & theatre 106 hotel rooms All in about 2 blocks, next to a highway 48
2000 2010 % increase Office, s.f. 151,000 581,000 285% Retail, s.f. 228,000 302,000 33% Cultural, s.f. 0 57,000 % Cameron Davidson
2000 2010 % increase Housing units 2,200 3,700 68% Population 3,700 4,500 22% Employment 1,200 3,700 208% Cameron Davidson
SOURCES OF MAJOR LOCAL TAX REVENUE Commercial RE Tax $2,313,672 Condominium RE Tax $1,133,475 Apartment RE Tax $1,920,660 Sales & Meals Tax $1,303,346 Transient Tax $347,651 BPOL $809,785 Business Tangible Property $462,323 TOTAL LOCAL TAX REVENUES $8,291,323 REVENUES GENERATED Sales & Meals $28,333,606 Fiscal impact Hotel Rooms Rates (Pre-Tax) $6,621,921
For more information, or if we can help you, please contact us: Geoffrey Anderson President and CEO ganderson@smartgrowthamerica.org Christopher Zimmerman Vice President for Economic Development czimmerman@smartgrowthameric.org Thank you