New Development Year-End Report MANHATTAN $ 2,215 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN $ 1,129 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED $ 2,86 $ 997 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED Halstead Property Development Marketing is pleased and excited to present our first Year-End New Development Report. This report focuses exclusively on the NYC new development condominium market, and aims to be the only report of its kind presenting a comprehensive picture of new development activity. STEPHEN KLIEGERMAN PRESIDENT HPDM 3,512 AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* 44.5 % TOTAL INVENTORY SOLD** 1,1 AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)* 22.5 % TOTAL INVENTORY SOLD** *Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released. **Total Inventory Sold includes units that are Contract Signed and Closed.
Summary Points DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN SAW THE MOST NEW DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY in 214 with over 1,15 units Closed or Contract Signed, and a current average Active Price per Sq. Ft. of $2,761. (SEE PAGE 3) BROOKLYN IS CONTINUING TO EMERGE AS A MAJOR MARKET for new developments. With a total number of Contract Signed and Closed units of approximately 22 in 214, the Brooklyn new development market is now roughly 1.5% as large as the Manhattan market by transaction volume. HPDM expects that figure to grow in 215 as development in Brooklyn continues to be robust. (SEE PAGE 9) 52% OF ACTIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS IN MANHATTAN ARE PRICED OVER $5M with an average Active Price per Sq. Ft. of $2,757, bolstered by Billionaire s Row and a strong luxury market. New development price points in Brooklyn are more approachable, with over 6% of Active listings priced below $2M. Active Price per Sq. Ft. in Brooklyn remains very strong heading into 215, averaging $1,326. (SEE PAGE 8) MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT. FOR ACTIVE LISTINGS IN MANHATTAN are 24.4% higher than Contract Signed listings in 214, reflecting continued robust pricing in the new development market as we move into 215. EXCLUDING BILLIONAIRE S ROW, THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH THE LARGEST QUARTER-OVER- QUARTER AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. INCREASE in Manhattan was Harlem, which saw a 17.4% Price per Sq. Ft. increase to $1,95 PSF in Q4 214, predominately due to the Adeline at 23rd West 116th Street. (SEE PAGE 4) TWO BEDROOMS SAW THE MOST CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED LISTINGS IN MANHATTAN with over 74 new development units. One Bedrooms were the most popular unit size in Brooklyn with 9 units either Contract Signed or Closed. (SEE PAGE 7) MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT. MANHATTAN Active $2,532 $1,227 Contract Signed $2,35 $1,119 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. Closed $1,742 $957 Active $2,757 $1,326 Contract Signed $2,215 $1,129 MEDIAN PRICE Closed $2,86 $997 BROOKLYN Active $5,26 $1,56 Contract Signed $2,937,5 $1,27 AVERAGE PRICE Closed $2,36,5 $1,25, Active $8,28,775 $2,45,116 Contract Signed $4,558,519 $1,52,24 TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS) Closed $4,286,16 $1,297,561 Total 6,328 1,291 Units Available 3,512 1,1 % Closed or Contract Signed 44.5% 22.5% HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 1
Introduction HPDM is pleased and excited to present our first Year-End New Development Report. This report focuses exclusively on the NYC new development condominium market, and aims to be the only report of its kind presenting a comprehensive picture of new development activity. New development is unique from the overall real estate market in that closings often do not occur until 12 to 18 months after a buyer enters into contract. To fully understand this market it is critical to track current listings, listings in contract, closed listings, as well as total inventory. This report analyzes 214 as a whole and is also a snapshot of current new development market conditions. New development pricing was very robust in 214. With an average Active Price per Sq. Ft. of $2,757 in Manhattan and $1,326 in Brooklyn, we expect to see a strong pricing dynamic continue into 215. However, we do expect a new trend to emerge as developers seek to build more efficient units and serve the currently undersupplied lower price segments in the market specifically the $1-$4M range. METHODOLOGY: All data is provided by proprietary Halstead Property Development Marketing research. This report tracks new development projects only, defined as those new to the market and currently selling sponsor units. Buildings that have fully sold out of sponsor units are not included, even though they may have recently been built. Resale data is not included in this report. All Active listings were compiled as of 12/23/14. Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 214, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by including currently unreleased units that are not yet listed as Active. TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET OVERVIEW...3 MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT...5 ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE...7 PRICE POINT ANALYSIS...8 TOTAL INVENTORY...9 FURTHER INSIGHT... 1 CONTACT... 11 HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 2
Market Overview The most new development activity in Manhattan occurred Downtown where over 1,15 units either entered into contract or closed in 214. Next to Billioinaire s Row, the area with the highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. was the Upper East Side. GROUND UP CONVERSIONS TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 114 $1,116 $69 237 162 153 $1,696 $1,996 $2,76 $2,797 $1,543 $1,975 HARLEM UES MIDTOWN WEST $5,1 128 $3,647 BILLIONAIRE'S $1,83 112 MIDTOWN EAST 1,161 $2,251 $2,117 DOWNTOWN 223 $1,136 $1,61 BROOKLYN** NUMBER OF UNITS 1,4 1,2 8 6 4 2 ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $1,156 $1,4 $688 HARLEM $2,425 $1,776 $1,435 $3,96 $2,817 UES $2,751 $1,965 $1,775 MIDTOWN WEST $5,385 $4,442 $4,647 BILLIONAIRE'S $2,424 $1,83 MIDTOWN EAST $2,761 $2,513 $1,84 DOWNTOWN $1,326 $1,129 $997 BROOKLYN** *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg. HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 3
Market Overview by Quarter The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter. Excluding Billionaire s Row, Harlem saw the largest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. increase from Q3 to Q4 214. CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 $1,92 $1,16 $934 $1,95 HARLEM $1,674 $1,775 $1,746 $1,857 $2,676 $2,847 $2,72 UES $2,851 $1,456 $1,812 $1,917 $1,714 MIDTOWN WEST $3,631 $4,155 $3,984 $5,398 BILLIONAIRE'S $1,762 $1,726 $1,852 $1,838 MIDTOWN EAST $2,65 $2,382 $2,38 $2,35 DOWNTOWN $1,5 $1,32 $1,131 $1,18 BROOKLYN** *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg. HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 4
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN The Upper West Side saw the most new development activity in the uptown and midtown areas with 237 units Contract Signed and Closed. Billionaire s Row achieved the highest average pricing at over $ per Sq. Ft. for ground-up development. CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED MANHATTAN GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. GROUND UP CONVERSIONS TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 237 NUMBER OF UNITS 25 114 $1,116 $69 HARLEM $1,696 $1,996 162 $2,76 $2,797 UES 66 $1,871 MIDTOWN WEST $5,1 128 $3,647 BILLIONAIRE'S $1,83 112 MIDTOWN EAST 141 $1,79 $2,39 CHELSEA $2,566 79 WEST CHELSEA 87 $1,543 $2,47 HELL'S KITCHEN 2 15 1 5 MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $1,156 $1,4 $688 HARLEM $2,425 $1,776 $1,435 $3,96 $2,817 UES $2,751 $1,899 $1,871 MIDTOWN WEST $5,385 $4,442 $4,647 BILLIONAIRE'S $2,424 $1,83 MIDTOWN EAST $2,297 $2,4 $1,775 CHELSEA $3,361 $2,597 $2,111 WEST CHELSEA $2,18 $1,72 HELL'S KITCHEN *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 5
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight DOWNTOWN In Downtown Manhattan, new development activity was centered in TriBeCa, the West Village, and FiDi. The highest Contract Signed pricing was achieved in the West Village with an Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. of $3,11 in 214. CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED MANHATTAN GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. GROUND UP CONVERSIONS TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 27 177 NUMBER OF UNITS 25 14 98 $5,1 153 88 2 15 $1,881 GRAMERCY PARK $2,87 $2,433 FLATIRON 23 $2,678 GREENWICH VILLAGE 46 $2,337 $2,173 SOHO 1 $2,72 NOHO $2,56 $,1832 TRIBECA $3,417 $2,7 WEST VILLAGE $1,613 EAST VILLAGE 4 LES $1,83 $2,199 $1,225 FINANCIAL DISTRICT 1 5 MANHATTAN ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $2,415 $1,83 $1,945 GRAMERCY PARK $3,148 $2,688 $2,793 FLATIRON $3,69 $2,678 GREENWICH VILLAGE $2,884 $2,534 SOHO $1,787 $3,358 $2,72 NOHO $3,124 $2,6 $1,488 TRIBECA $2,93 $3,11 $2,253 WEST VILLAGE $1,83 $1,613 EAST VILLAGE $2,585 $1,83 LES $2,548 $2,325 $1,245 FINANCIAL DISTRICT HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 6
Analysis by Unit Type MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN Two Bedroom units were the most prevalent unit type in Manhattan, while One Bedrooms were most prevalent in Brooklyn. This reflects efficient building in Brooklyn as well as the recent trend of larger unit types in the luxury segment of the Manhattan market. MANHATTAN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE MANHATTAN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $2M ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 95 NUMBER OF UNITS 6 ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED $15M $1M $5M 126 $79k $8k $8k STUDIO 677 $1.49M $1.33M $1.18M 1 BED $3.49M $2.71M $2.29M 2 BED 636 $7.1M $5.63M $4.88M 3 BED 267 $9.69M $8.8M $9.56M 4 BED $16.55M 84 $11.95M 5 BED $17.5M 8 6 4 2 5 4 3 2 1 21 58 47 STUDIO 89 343 245 1 BED 158 485 262 2 BED 187 299 15 3 BED 86 133 48 4 BED 32 31 21 5 BED BROOKLYN MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE BROOKLYN TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM $4M $3.5M $3M $2.5M $2M $1.5M $1M $5k ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS 124 14 17 $456k $62k $855k $946k $795k $1.55M $1.38M $1.18M 69 23 $2.64M $2.52M $1.35M $3.63M $3.5M $2.5M STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED NUMBER OF UNITS 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 8 6 4 2 ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED 8 9 34 86 4 33 64 7 28 24 17 STUDIO 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 13 9 1 4 BED HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 7
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN Active new development listings in Manhattan priced above $5M comprise 52% of all Active listings. While Brooklyn pricing is more approachable, there is a shift to higher price points that can be seen in the progression from Closed, Contract Signed, to Active listings. We expect this dynamic to continue in Brooklyn as more units come to market in 215 priced above $2M, and as units in contract begin closing. 214 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN ACTIVE MANHATTAN CONTRACT SIGNED MANHATTAN CLOSED 8.4% 8.7% 1.5% 12.9% 7.5% 52% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $-1M 4.3% 22.3% 3.4% 16.2% 2.1% 29.1% 31.6% 1.% 22.3%.5% 7.7% 11.9% 39.7% 39.2% 7.6% 11.% 17.2% 23.3% 1.9% 22.3% 4.9% 8.8% 14.3% 2.6% 3% 29.2% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $-1M 214 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN ACTIVE BROOKLYN CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN CLOSED.% 22.3%.%.% 6.9% 69.% 24.1% 39.2% $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $-1M $5M+ $4M-5M $3M-4M $2M-3M $1M-2M $-1M HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 8
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN Currently, the largest amount of total inventory is concentrated in Downtown Manhattan, specifically FiDi. In Brooklyn the highest total inventory is found in Downtown Brooklyn and Williamsburg. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding percentage of units sold. Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released prior to 214, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by including unreleased units. MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY 1,2 8 6 4 2 TOTAL UNITS 61.3% 186 HARLEM 57.2% 439 PERCENT SOLD 42.1% 565 UES 46.2% 225 MIDTOWN WEST 36.6% 23.6% 39 BN. 652 MIDTOWN EAST 62.6% 195 CHELSEA 63.5% 126 WEST CHELSEA 58.9% 168 HELL'S KITCHEN 65.5% 174 GRAM. PARK 29.7% 474 79.3% 29 FLATIRON GREEN. VILLAGE 51.3% 113 SOHO 75% 2 NOHO 67.7% 73.2% 564 TRIBECA 396 WEST VILLAGE 96.7% 92 EAST VILLAGE 28.6% 28% 14 LES 1,85 FINANCIAL DISTRICT PERCENTAGE SOLD 1% 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD PERCENTAGE SOLD 4 35 3 25 378 85.7% 1% 9 8 7 6 2 15 1 5 6.6% 122 BROOKLYN HEIGHTS 37.5% 32 CARROLL GARDENS 33.3% 9 CLINTON HILL 36 CROWN HEIGHTS 14.8% 128 BOERUM HILL/ COBBLE HILL 13% DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN 36.3% 124 DUMBO 7 GREENPOINT 1.8% 65 PROSPECT HEIGHTS 33.3% 9 PARK SLOPE 15.3% 236 WILLIAMSBURG 5 4 3 2 1 *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 9
Further Insight MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD Downtown Manhattan saw the most new development activity by volume in 214. MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE Lower median unit sizes in Brooklyn reflect the recent trend of large units in the Manhattan luxury market and more efficient building in Brooklyn. ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED MANHATTAN BROOKLYN 7 654 6 5 57 4,311 4 324 3,31 3,478 3 2 1 62 42 12 UES 32 2 37 55 112 MIDTOWN EAST 36 153 MIDTOWN WEST 38 66 62 BN 36 131 51 DOWNTOWN UPPER MANHATTAN 117 194 29 BKLYN** 521 53 STUDIO 8 783 1 BED 1,411 1,153 2 BED 2,276.5 1,667 3 BED 2,489 4 BED 5 BED CONTRACT SIGNED BY MONTH Typical market seasonality can be seen with fewer new development contracts signed in the spring months than during fall and winter. 16 MANHATTAN BROOKLYN 14 15 152 152 151 12 1 8 88 11 124 1 128 6 4 63 75 74 58 2 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL 2 MAY 5 JUNE 26 JULY 22 AUGUST 12 SEPTEMBER OCTOBER 33 NOVEMBER 36 DECEMBER *Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 2 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS ** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg. HPDM 214 New Development Year End Report 1
Contact LAUNCHING THIS QUARTER 51 Jay Street DUMBO 15 Hubert Street TriBeCa 51JaySt.com 15Hubert.com 445 Park Avenue, 12th Floor New York, NY 122 HPDMNY.com Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Chief Market and Planning Analyst and Lisa Rae Castrigno, Director of Research. 212 521 5757 The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM s prior consent. For questions or comments regarding this report please contact research@hpdmny.com