MARKET INDICATORS 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 Availability Rate 3.2 % 2.6 % Net Accumulated Absorption 440,000 sqm 560,000 sqm Construction 650,000 sqm 500,000 sqm Average Rental Price USD $4.95 USD $4.94 GDP 2.11 2.26 Unemployment Rate 3.51 3.48 Inflation 6.48 4.86 Exchange Rate (USD) 17.82 18.93 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The World Bank forecasts that global economic growth will reach 3.9% in 2018 and 2019 within an international context marked by rising oil prices, expanding corporate profits in the United States, growing commercial tensions and increasing pressures over the exchange rates of countries with weaker economic foundations. Also, the strained NAFTA negotiations between the countries of North America ended up in the substation of the aforementioned by the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, also known as USMCA. Within the national panorama Mexican economy gained strength during the second and third quarters of the current year despite the political uncertainty generated by the presidential elections of July 1st, in which Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected Mexico's next President (2018-2024) after obtaining more than 50% of the votes. A prosperous service sector and an upturn in manufacturing activity exercised a positive impact on economic growth, reducing the volatility and lightly depreciation that the Mexican Peso showed during the 2Q 2018, closing the 3Q 2018 with an exchange rate of $18.93 MXN per American Dollar. Inflation is likely to situate itself above 4.0% by the end of 2018, monetary policy will remain basically unaltered for the rest of the year. Sources: 1.- BBVA 2.- Banxico 3.- INEGI 4.- FocusEconomics
INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK INVENTORY 24.3 million sqm 9 industrial corridors More than 2,000 monitored industrial properties (greater than 2,000 sqm) MARKET SEGMENTATION BY CLASS Class A 11 million sqm Class B 13.3 million sqm INVENTORY, GROWTH AND AVAILABILITY RATE IN CLASS A 3Q 2017 3Q 2018 11,500,000 11,400,000 10,500,000 10,000,000 9,500,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 2.1% 1.8% 3.2 % 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% INITIAL INVENTORY(sqm) INCREASE (sqm) AVAILABILITY RATE INVENTORY BY CLASS (SQM) 3Q 2018 TOTAL: 24.3 MILLON SQM A 45% B 55%
During the third quarter of 2018 the surface of industrial buildings increased by more than 100 thousand sqm due to the incorporation of 5 new buildings. More than 560 sqm of industrial warehouses are monitored. Currently there is a total of 282 thousand sqm available in class A properties, while for class B there are 278 thousand sqm. AVAILABILITY BY CLASS 3Q 2018 TOTAL: 560,000 SQM A 50% B 50% DEMAND During the period from January to September 2018, in class A properties, 787 thousand sqm of activity was monitored for sale and rental of industrial warehouses larger than 2,000 sqm. SEGMENTATION OF MARKET ACTIVITY BY QUARTER CLASS A & B 3Q 2018 TOTAL: MORE THAN 500,000 SQM B 25% A 75%
MARKET ABSORPTION VS MARKET ACTIVITY IN CLASS A 2Q 2017-3Q 2018 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 ABSORPTION MARKET ACTIVITY PRICES At the end of the third quarter of 2018, the weighted price ranges of the monthly rent list range from U.S. $ 3 to U.S. $ 7 per sqm for class A and from U.S. $ 2 to U.S. $ 8.5 per sqm for class B warehouses. $9.0 $9.0 $8.0 $8.0 $7.0 $6.0 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0 A B $2.0 $1.0 $0 PRECIO PROMEDIO PONDERADO
We know that information represents a fundamental tool in decision making. The objective of this is general information on the main corridors that make up the industrial market of the Metropolitan Area and Toluca. Additionally, Colliers Mexico offers, through its Market Research division, the complete analysis of the industrial market with historical information of the nine main corridors, analysis of trends, prices and new developments in construction, among other relevant information of the period MAP OF INDUSTRIAL CORRIDORS MEXICO CITY S, METROPOLITAN AREA AND TOLUCA-LERMA TULA ATITALAQUIA JOROBAS-TULA TEPEJI DEL RÍO NORTE HUEHUETOCA TEOLOYUCAN- HUEHUETOCA LAGO ZUMPANGO TEOLOYUCAN ZUMPANGO TEOLOYUCAN-ZUMPANGO NT CTT TLA NP V-A IZT I-T T-L E-X NORTE: TEOLOYUCAN-ZUMPANGO-HUEHUETICA- TEPEJI DEL RIO-ATITALAQUIA CUAUTITLAN - TULTITLAN - TEPOTZOTLAN TLALNEPANTLA NAUCALPAN VALLEJO - AZCAPOTZALCO IZTACALCO IZTAPALAPA - TLAHUAC TOLUCA - LERMA ECATEPEC - XALOSTOC NAUCALPAN TOLUCA NP AUTOPISTA MÉXICO QUERÉTARO 5 DE MAYO ILA CAMAC HO BLVR. MANUEL AV VÍ A GUSTAVO BAZ TLA RÍO SAN JOAQUÍN CTT MARIO COLIN V-A CIRCUITO EXTERIOR MEXIQUENSE PERIFÉRICO CIRCUITO INTERIOR VÍA MOR ELOS E-X AUTOPISTA MÉXICO PACHUCA AV. INSURGENTES CALZ. IGNACIO ZARAGOZA IZT I-T BLVR. MIGUÉL ALEMÁN AV. DE LA PARTIDAS VÍA JOSÉ LÓPEZ PORTILLO T-L LIBRAMIENTO NORORIENTE P ERIFÉRICO PASEO TOLLOCAN BENITO JUÁREZ