A City With Unique Attributes It Hasn t Begun to Maximize Economic Stability

Transcription

1 Abbotsford

2 A City With Unique Attributes It Hasn t Begun to Maximize Whooooooshhhh.. that s the sound of Abbotsford riding the wave of the real estate boom in Vancouver! Abbotsford is most definitely feeling the positive effects from the mania and with good reason. Amazing re-development, excellent large scale commercial developments, improvements to access via car and plane and a new forward focused economic development office mean all signs point to go, and going Abbotsford is. In 2013, REIN stipulated that there were no signs of stopping any time soon and that certainly is the case. The city has witnessed an increase in local jobs, with fewer people having to commute out of the city for work. The major expansion of commercial and industrial lands along the Mt. Lehman Corridor continues with the recently opened Sandman hotel to cater to the airport crowd, a booming entertainment centre and trade show venue, hospital and cancer centre, new restaurants and retail at Highstreet mall, as well as the opening of offices and retail at the McCallum exit. The City of Abbotsford straddles the Trans-Canada Highway, functioning as a gateway community between the rest of the Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver, with its southern border being Washington State. This means that Abbotsford s businesses benefit from a constant flow of traffic from the United States as well as from the Metro Vancouver region. The city s location provides a great spot to situate and grow businesses designed to service the whole province. Abbotsford is no longer just a stretch stop on the way to Vancouver from the interior of the province; it is slowly becoming a destination. Economic Stability By far the most important economic driver affecting the real estate cycle, economic stability translates simply into the existence, and the future outlook, of employment for the city s residents. Is the city creating an environment that is attracting employers and can it support the existing and future growth? REIN examines the following criteria: GDP Job creation Population growth Access to post-secondary education Accessibility: the movement of goods and people to attract jobs and residents o Airports o Ports o Highways o Bridges Infrastructure that supports the community: o Hospitals and emergency services o Water and sewers o Schools GDP and Job Creation When it comes to Abbotsford, most people, especially those merely driving through, instantly relate Abbotsford to farming. Essentially, for those in the know, the smell of cow manure in Abbotsford is the smell of money! Surrounded by fertile agricultural land, Abbotsford is home to some of the most productive farms in the country. Gross farm receipts are $20,441 per hectare, which is three times greater than the next most productive agricultural region in Canada i. The city is the largest farm gate in BC, producing over $453 million each year in revenue ii. The agriculture industry generates about 35% of the city s GDP and provides more than 11,300 jobs for Abbotsford residents iii. Thus, it comes as little surprise that many businesses, including government agricultural agencies, have chosen to locate their regional headquarters within the city - bringing scientists and other professionals to the area seeking homes close to their places of employment. 1

3 However, while farming will continue to play a significant role in Abbotsford s economy, the city has diversified its economic base in recent years to include industrial manufacturing, aerospace, and healthcare. This diversification mitigates economic risk; whereby, cities with one economic engine (for example forestry) who suffer a devastating blow (such as the pine beetle), can collapse due to a dearth of jobs. As a manufacturing base, Abbotsford is home to Cascade Aerospace. Next to Abbotsford International Airport, Cascade operates a 250,000-square-foot MRO facility where it maintains, repairs and overhauls aircraft from all over the world, employing over 500 people. The top three types of employment in Abbotsford are: Industrial, electrical and construction trades Transport and heavy equipment operations and maintenance Service support iv Post-Secondary Education The existence and option of post-secondary institutions serves many purposes when it comes to real estate. Not only does it keep its residents from leaving to pursue college, it attracts new people to the area; it creates jobs at all levels of salary and lends to the brain trust and creativity of its residents, which has an undeniably good impact on quality of life. Students are large consumers of housing and move frequently, creating vitality in the housing market. Additionally, employees of the university need places to live. Most important to the economic stability criteria is that people seek education in both good and bad economic times, which insulates a housing market. Abbotsford is home to the University of the Fraser Valley which hosts approximately 15,000 students with an economic impact on Abbotsford of about $500 million v. It has drawn approximately 900 international students from 40 different countries, giving it international recognition vi. The rapid expansion of the university has left it popping up satellite classrooms around the city, the most recent one being in the Clearbrook Library. The university supplies Abbotsford with a large pool of student renters and contributes to the cultural diversity of the city. Post-secondary institutions also act as economic stabilizers for communities as in both good and bad economic times people continue to strive for higher education. The university s enrollment continues to grow annually. Due to the projected numbers of students over the next 15 years, UFV will need to take massive strides to expand its capacity. UFV began operating a shuttle service between its Abbotsford and Chilliwack campuses to facilitate ease for its off-campus students due to a lack of public transportation available between the two. Population Growth According to the last Federal Census in 2011, the population of Abbotsford was 133,497, a 7.4% increase from 124,258 in 2006 vii. Abbotsford municipal census indicates there were 139,000 residents in Given the rate of population increases over the past decade, Abbotsford projects an estimated population of 150,000 by 2016, and it will break the 200,000 mark by 2036 viii. Employment opportunities in Abbotsford have and will continue to draw people to the area, people who need a place to live. In turn, housing values and rents will continue to climb. The median age of Abbotsford residents is 37.9 years, lower than the median age of the province at Abbotsford s stable population distribution can largely be attributed to the city s high birth rate. Due to the affordability of housing, relative to Metro Vancouver, and its close proximity within the Lower Mainland, young families will seek Abbotsford as an affordable option for housing. A young population means that more services like education, child-care, and facilities will be geared towards younger families. This is important because it will draw even more younger families to Abbotsford who seek similar amenities. This will impact the real estate market in two ways. Young families who have not yet entered the housing market are attracted to Abbotsford because of its low housing values relative to any city to the west. Families with real estate holdings in Metro Vancouver may be inclined to cash in on the huge amount of equity created in the recent past to buy more square footage, a new home, or to live mortgage free. Because of the city s attraction to young families, it is important to consider that most consumers in this category are looking for 3+ bedroom homes. Accessibility - Land Abbotsford s close proximity to key transportation infrastructure including the Trans-Canada Highway, U.S. border crossings, and the Abbotsford International Airport, make the city a prime location for industrial businesses. Superior transportation infrastructure lures employers to locate businesses and head offices in these areas because they can move their goods (and their people) in and out easily and less expensively. The main infrastructure improvement that is affecting Abbotsford isn t even located in the city. The completion of the new Port Mann Bridge and the addition of more lanes east of the bridge have already had a major impact on the current and future residents of Abbotsford. People will be more willing to move east of the bridge as commutes ease to the west. 2

4 Distance is measured in minutes (versus kilometres) so although the actual distance will remain the same, the widening of Highway 1 as far east as exit 216 in Langley and the 10-lane span means that residents do not spend as much time getting where they need to go, making it more enticing to move east while still working in the west. In addition, the completion of the South Fraser Perimeter Road (SFPR) means that commuting westbound just became much quicker. Access by people and the shipment of goods to and from the Vancouver International Airport is quick and easy and no longer means intricate journeys along surface streets. This makes Abbotsford more accessible from most regions in the Vancouver area. The major upgrades to the interchanges at Clearbrook Road and Highway 1 and McCallum Road and Highway 1 increase the ease of traffic flow south and north as well as improving highway access. The project also included the construction of a third westbound lane from Sumas Way to just after McCallum Road to assist in the boom of development along McCallum with an emphasis on the northeast corner. The addition of lanes on Highway 1 and easier access to the Abbotsford Airport on Mt. Lehman Rd. is on the books but, due to Federal Government change, is not on a confirmed time-line. If completed, this project will also enhance the Abbotsford Advantage. Accessibility Air Quickly becoming the preferred airport for anyone living in Surrey and westwards, the Abbotsford International Airport is a boon for people and businesses. Creating jobs, attracting businesses and impacting the decision of where residents locate, the presence of this airport has been a game changer for the city. A hotel, mall, and multiple restaurants are now a short drive from the airport and add incentive for people choosing which airport to use. The airport is owned by the City and services half a million passengers a year ix. Improvements to the airport and runways are continuing to Infrastructure As the city s population continues to grow, Abbotsford s leadership must ensure that the city s infrastructure keeps up with resident demands. Infrastructure is important to meet the needs of the residents. People will leave a city that doesn t have the capacity to educate its children, mend its ill-stricken, or arrest its bad guys. Hospitals, schools, emergency services, as well as water, sewer, and roads are of paramount importance. A coup for the residents was the construction of a first class hospital and cancer clinic. Residents from the west and the east utilize this facility for both short and long term services and the creation of a Ronald McDonald House for children with serious and terminal conditions in on the books. The area surrounding this facility attracts diverse but hospital focused residents including: the elderly looking for new or affordable one bedrooms; professionals in the healthcare industry looking for nicely appointed 2 bedrooms to whole homes; and those seeking long term treatment at the hospital and visiting health care providers seeking furnished rentals. New industrial developments continue to spring up in the city s newer industrial areas: Mt. Lehman Industrial Area, Peardonville Industrial Area, and Clearbrook Industrial Area 2, south of King and Marshall Roads. With the new Official Community Plan (OCP) for the City Urban areas, we will see more clarity in direction and thus the ability for the city to attract new businesses to the region. The City s Open For Business tagline is coming true. Yield Growth Potential The housing price to rent ratio is also part of a smart business decision when it comes to determining if a city is a good place to invest in residential real estate. Will an investor make money given the purchase price of a home (and its related monthly expenses) compared to current market rent? Is there a reasonable expectation that rents will go up? Although the further one moves east from the Central Business District of Vancouver, the likelihood of finding a good Return on Investment (ROI) increases, it is still very hard to find properties that cash flow in Abbotsford. The high cost of housing has surmounted what one collects for rent. Although there are definitely properties that fit the model of a good cash flowing property, it takes tenacity and creativity to find them. Number of Detached Listings, Failed Transactions, and Sales; Month of March The detached home market is definitely feeling the largest impact recently. With record low inventory and high sales, the market across all three categories (detached, 3 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV

5 townhouse, and condo) is definitely one with the seller calling the shots. The shift is marked and astounding. The Sell-through-rate (STR) is calculated by taking the number of sales and dividing it by the total number of listings, failed transactions (those that were pulled off the market for any reason), and the number of sales (again). The higher the number, the more the market is in favour of the seller, the lower the number the favour leans to the buyer. A balanced market is one where the STR is between 14% - 18% x. Detached Housing Market Sell Through Rate March March 2016 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS In March, the largest number of detached homes for sale in Abbotsford were found in the most expensive groups. Price of Detached Homes by Price Category, March 2016 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS As with other cities, different neighbourhoods command different selling prices. It s important to note that nearly 25% of residential dwellings in Abbotsford were built between 1971 and 1980 and of those approximately 26% need repairs xi. This will be important when one sources potential properties as it is necessary to do your diligence with regards to repairs. This also opens the potential to create value through updated renovations. As the graph below clearly indicates, the number of homes selling top six price categories has been steadily climbing, with fewer homes selling in the bottom three categories. 4

6 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS Number of Townhouse Listings, Failed Transactions, and Sales; Month of March Townhouse Sales Townhouse Failed Townhouse Listings March 2013 March 2014 March 2015 March 2016 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS Townhouse Market Sell Through Rate March March

7 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS Price of Townhouses by Price Category, March 2016 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS The number of sales has doubled from March of 2013 to March 2016 and inventory is less than 50%. Number of Condo Listings, Failed Transactions, and Sales; Month of March Condo Sales Condo Failed Condo Listings March 2013 March 2014 March 2015 March 2016 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS Condo Market Sell Through Rate March March 2016 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS Quite the opposite to the detached market is the condo market, with the glut of availability being found on the low end of the price category with 81% of the condo inventory sold in March being priced at $225,000 or less. It may be possible to cash flow a new two bedroom condo if you can get it for a discount given the advertised rents; however, it is important to remember that additional fees with condos primarily strata fees can quickly eat up any spread between expenses and income. Price of Condos by Price Category, March

8 Source: Eximus Real Estate Team with data from FVREB and REBGV MLS Rents Abbotsford provides investors with plenty of student rental opportunities. The university currently only provides students with one on-campus student housing option the 4-storey Baker House building. Students can expect to pay roughly $671 per month for a dorm room and limited meal plan. Because of this, the majority of out-of-town students rely on rental units near the university to meet their housing needs. With enrollment expected to increase to 27,000 by 2041, the need for student housing will rise dramatically. The area around Abbotsford s new hospital is booming with multi-families and also caters to many seniors who access the medical businesses in the area. The downtown area has a mix of tenants and it is important to do adequate screening. Like many cities, a tougher to manage tenant profile can exist in the downtown core. An examination of Craigslist and Kijiji provided some interesting information. There were more wanted to rent in the house section of both websites for Abbotsford than there were homes TO rent. Clearly there is demand for entire homes in the city. Rents for entire homes ranged from $1700 to $3080 with the median price rent being $2250. It may be possible to cash flow older inventory with some cosmetic upgrades. By far, the largest number of units available to rent were one-bedroom apartments. Rental rates for one bedrooms as of April 12, 2016 ranged from $750 to $1030. Two-bedroom rents were clearly at opposite ends of the spectrum with older units listed for $925 with a range between $850 and $1325. Brand new units advertised between $1300 to $1550 with the median price clearly at the high end at $1550. The two furnished units advertised were $1600 and $2000. The difference in rent between one bedroom units and two-bedroom units in the same building was about $125 more for the extra bedroom. Mainstreet, a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with apartment rentals across the country, clearly had the lion s share of one-bedroom listings. In one building they owned, bachelor apartments were advertised for $600, one-bedrooms for $800, and two-bedrooms were listed at $900 a month. Political Climate Political climate is generally indicative to how open for business a city is: do they encourage revitalization, development, and business. It ranges from how attractive does the city make it for new businesses (are there incentives, tax breaks, low mill rates?) to what are their policies and bylaws affecting rental real estate such as secondary suite legislation and rent control in addition to what the Province imposes. The City of Abbotsford has previously been known by investors and business owners as a tough place in which to do business. It is important for investors to realize that this has begun to change, not just in words but also in actions. There is still work to do on this improvement process, but the good news is that the momentum has already begun, which is making the City more attractive to businesses, residents and developers. The launch of the City of Abbotsford s new Economic Development department is already having a positive impact on its visibility. The interactive website provides direct and important demographic, economic and income details for the whole city. So whether developing retail, commercial or residential, developers no longer have to guess whether the market will support their initiatives. See: Investors seeking opportunity in Abbotsford should check the City for present and future development plans. They have useful information regarding bylaws, zoning, and tax incentives. Source: Altus Group Property Tax Rate Analysis Abbotsford has the second lowest industrial mill rate in the city in Metro Vancouver with an industrial to residential tax ratio of xii. Overall, it remains the second lowest after its neighbour Chilliwack for all three categories combined. Its commercial mill rate decreased 3.6% from the previous year (to $19 tax per $1000) and decreased its residential tax rate 1.3% to $7.79 for every $1000. The residential rate impacts 7

9 investors directly in the pocket book in the form of property taxes the higher the rate, the lower the cash flow. Commercial and industrial rates impact businesses and their decision to set up shop in particular communities, affecting subsequent employment opportunities for residents. Municipal development fees are relatively high compared to surrounding areas (3 rd highest out of 20 cities). Comparison of Commercial Tax Rates for Metro Vancouver Cities, (Highest and Lowest Highlighted), 2015 Source: NAIOP Comparison of Industrial and Residential Tax Rates for Metro Vancouver Cities, 2015 Source: Altus Group 8

10 Abbotsford is tied for second place for its timing of its development review with a rezoning process of 3-4 months (compared to half the communities that are less than three months and the other half that are upwards of five months). This has a big impact on a business s decision of where to develop their location. Time is money when it comes being operational and a city with a bad reputation for dragging the process out will soon lose out to more proactive and efficient ones. Industrial Development Metrics, Metro Vancouver 2015 Source: NAIOP xiii Business and Development Tax Incentives Under the Abbotsford International Airport Revitalization Tax Exemption Bylaw, 2009, the City established a revitalization tax exemption program for the purpose of encouraging revitalization of the area currently within the boundaries of the Abbotsford International Airport designated I7 Airport Industrial Zone xiv. A similar program was established to encourage revitalization of the Historic Downtown Area of the City xv. Both programs require over $100,000 worth of improvements. Rental Rules Housing in Abbotsford, like all British Columbian cities, is governed by the BC Residential Tenancy Act, which mandates that the maximum allowable rental increase for 2016 is 2.9%, so with the proper notice, a landlord is allowed to increase a $1000 rent by $29 this year xvi. Secondary Suites xvii Always a boon for real estate investors is the ability to increase income by having a second suite in the home. This mitigates the risk of vacancy by increasing the odds that there will be some income to cover expenses if an owner is unable to find a suitable tenant in time. Abbotsford permits secondary suites if they meet certain requirements. One such requirement is that the suite is only allowed in certain zones (RR, CR, SR, RS1, RS3, RS4, RS5, A1, A2, A3, A5, N11 and RMF zones). Development Planning and Building Permits & Licenses staff has been reviewing and updates the information presented on their website. Secondary Suites are required to be registered with the City. Fees for such applications are: Existing suite registration fee - $572; New suite registration fee - $260; Infrastructure fee paid through property taxes on annual basis - $260; Suite removal permit - $ A secondary suite must: 1. Be limited to one secondary suite per lot, no larger than 90 m² (968.8 ft2 ) or 40% of the net floor area of the house, whichever is less; 2. In addition to the two off-street parking spaces required for the house, one additional off-street parking space is required for a secondary suite. The secondary suite cannot be subdivided from the house that it is part of. Both the suite and principal dwelling will remain registered under the same title. 9

11 Transportation Public Transit The presence of frequent, efficient and affordable public transit is attractive to both Millennials and the elderly. Abbotsford is quite restricted when it comes to transit and is not serviced by any light or heavy rail. Abbotsford is currently serviced by Central Fraser Valley (CFV) Transit which provides service within Abbotsford and to Mission. There is a current initiative underway with BC Transit to expand public transit to include Rapid Transit, Frequent Transit, Local Transit, Targeted Transit, Inter-regional, and Regional Transit. In order for the city to attract investors and younger families it must develop a comprehensive transit plan to suit their needs. Investor Rating Abbotsford is an interesting place for real estate investors. Purchase price points continue to be much lower than anywhere west and rents are higher than anywhere east it is not as difficult in other regions to find a happy balance in order to cash flow. Abbotsford s location, infrastructure and its international airport have it poised for investment excellence in the future. The Port Mann Bridge, the creation of the SFPR, and the extra lanes on Highway 1 have had a very positive impact on Abbotsford, and it s an impact that will continue to grow as housing prices continue to increase in Metro Vancouver. We have begun to witness the migration from Vancouver and other regions to the west of Abbotsford towards living and working in the city. Due to its size and location, property management is not a problem and finding trades for repairs and maintenance is relatively easy. This City is not at the effect of extreme market fluctuations and investors see steady, albeit BC rent controlled, increases. For the long term real estate investors, particularly those interested in self-managing, Abbotsford is a good opportunity to get in front of the demand wave. The REIN Score Rating Scale Economic Risk /12 11 Yield Growth Potential /12 8 Local Politics Conducive to Business /8 7 Access to Public Transportation /8 6 Investors insights /10 8 Overall 40 Previous Score 35 The future seems to have discovered Abbotsford, even before Abbotsford discovered itself fully. In fact, in a number of independent reports Abbotsford is forecast to be one of the top three economic leaders in the Province. Thank you to Eximus Real Estate Team for providing all real estate statistics. 10

12 SOURCES i City of Abbotsford (April 2015). Business Statistics. Infographic.pdf. Retrieved April 12, ii City of Abbotsford. (2010). Community Profile. iii City of Abbotsford. (November 2010). Abbotsford in Action. iv City of Abbotsford (April 2015). v Ibid. vi Retrieved on September 24, 2014 vii egins&searchpr=01&b1=all&custom=&tabid=1 viii Retrieved on September 23, 2014 ix City of Abbotsford (April 2015). x Eximus Real Estate Team. (April 2016). Fraser Valley March STR. Monthly Newsletter. xi +Abbotsford+Summary.pdf Retrieved on September 25, 2014 xii Altus Group. (2015). Property Tax Rate Analysis. Retrieved April 12, xiii NAIOP. (Fall 2015). 16th Annual Regional Industrial Development Cost Survey. Survey.pdf. Retrieved April 13, xiv City of Abbotsford (undated). Abbotsford International Airport Revitalization Tax Exemption Application. Retrieved April 13, xv City of Abbotsford (undated). Abbotsford Downtown. Revitalization Tax Exemption Application. Retrieved April 13, xvi Retrieved on April 13, xvii City of Abbotsford. (August 2015). Secondary Suites: Guidelines for the construction of Accessory Secondary Suites in the City of Abbotsford. Retrieved April 13, Authored By: Melanie Reuter, MA, BA, Director of Research at REIN 11