Vancouver market update

Transcription

1 Vancouver market update Robyn adamache Senior market Analyst - Vancouver CMHC Market Analysis BC Region January, 27

2 BC Housing Market Update Economic Fundamentals New Home Construction Resale Market

3 Economic fundamentals Main factors driving housing demand low mortgage rates positive Migration Economic Growth employment growth Strong consumer confidence

4 Mortgage Rates Flat Posted 1- year and 5-year residential mortgage rates, % 8.75% 5-year rate Line 2 1-year rate Line % F Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC Forecast

5 migration to Vancouver Strong despite booming Alberta Inter-provincial International 33.7K Source: BC STATS

6 BC a Leader of Growth in Canada in 26 Consumer Spending and Investment Underpin Economic Output Fueled by earnings and population growth All types of construction robust 3.5% 5.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.3% 2.4% Source: Statistics Canada, Q4 CMHC Forecast 2.9%: Canada

7 Tight labour markets in Greater Vancouver Employment Gains Yr/yr Change (in thousands) 7 Unemployment Rate Percentage Full-Time Part-Time Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

8 Consumers Confident Consumer confidence, 1991=1 Q1 26: Source: Conference Board of Canada

9 Housing Starts British Columbia 4, Single Multiple-unit 34.6K 36K 3, 2, 1, F 28F Source: CMHC

10 Active resale markets in bc 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, MLS sales, total units K 96.7K 6(e) 7(f) Sources: CREA and CMHC Forecast

11 New home construction

12 Housing Starts Vancouver CMA 25 2 Singles Multiples Year Average 18.7 Thousands F Source: CMHC

13 New Home inventory Vancouver CMA 7, 6, 5, Singles Multiples 4, 15-Yr Average 3, 2, Complete & Unoccupied Units 1, Dec-91 Dec-94 Dec-97 Dec- Dec-3 Dec- 6 Source: CMHC

14 Apartment Condo Supply Vancouver CMA Inventory ('s) Vacant Inventory Under Construction Dec-98 Dec- Dec-2 Dec-4 Dec-6 U/C ('s) Source: CMHC

15 Housing Starts City of Vancouver* 7, 6, Singles Multiples Avg 5, 4, 4.1K 3.5K 3, 2, 1, Source: CMHC, *Includes Vancouver East & West

16 New Home inventory City of Vancouver* Complete & Unoccupied Units 1,8 1,5 1,2 Singles Multiples Avg Dec-91 Dec-94 Dec-97 Dec- Dec-3 Dec-6 Source: CMHC, *Includes Vancouver East & West

17 Apartment Condo Supply City of Vancouver* 12 Vacant Inventory Under Construction 7,5 9 6, Inventory 6 3 4,5 3, 1,5 U/C Dec-98 Dec- Dec-2 Dec-4 Dec-6 Source: CMHC, *Includes Vancouver East & West

18 Resale market

19 Greater Vancouver Resale activity Down off record 5 4 Single Detached Townhouse Apartment Year Average 36 Thousands Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, CMHC Forecast

20 Cost to Own Widens as Prices Surge Monthly Cost ($) Average Two Bedroom Apartment Rent Apartment Ownership Carrying Cost $38 $1, * *26 YTD Carrying Cost, 2 bedroom rent forecast Assumes: 1% down-payment, 25 year amortization, 5-year fixed rates Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC Forecast, REBGV, CMHC Rental Market Survey

21 Greater Vancouver Resale inventories 15 Active Listings (Thousands) Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

22 Greater Vancouver Sales to Active Listings ratio Sellers Balanced Buyers Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec- Dec-2 Dec-4 Dec-6 Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

23 Lower Mainland Average MLS Single Detached Home Prices West Van $1,572, Van West $1,348, Richmond $654, North Van $78, Burnaby $658, Coquitlam $574, +8% +11% +16% Maple Ridge/ Pitt Meadows $461, Surrey Delta $484, $569, Langley $46, Abbotsford $367, Source: REBGV, FVREB

24 Greater Vancouver Average MLS Price Forecast (F) Single Detached $587,484 12% $729,75 24% $773, 6% Townhouse $362,847 15% $42,47 16% $445, 6% Apartment $296,36 14% $343,55 16% $375, 9% Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, CMHC Forecast

25 Vancouver city* Resale activity 16, Single Detached Townhouse Apartment 13.8K 12, 11.5K 8, 4, Source: REBGV, *Includes Vancouver East & West

26 Vancouver City* Resale inventories 5, 4, Active Listings 3, 2, 1, Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Source: REBGV, *Includes Vancouver East & West

27 Vancouver East Sales to active Listings ratio Sellers.2 Balanced. Buyers Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec- Dec-2 Dec-4 Dec-6 Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

28 Vancouver East Average MLS Price Single Detached $498,79 14% $599,822 2% Townhouse $361,15 27% $438,69 21% Apartment $224,327 22% $264,94 18% Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, CMHC Forecast

29 Average Apt Condo Prices (26) $329K $223K $292K $255K $229K $247K $275K Note: Insufficient data for South Vancouver & Renfrew Heights. $319K $23K $242K $266K $25K $246K $325K Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

30 Vancouver West Sales to active Listings ratio Sellers.2 Balanced. Buyers Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec- Dec-2 Dec-4 Dec-6 Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

31 Vancouver west Average MLS Price Single Detached $1,52,795 18% $1,348,442 28% Townhouse $561,398 3% $661,52 18% Apartment $49,972 16% $468,468 14% Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, CMHC Forecast

32 Average Apt Condo Prices (26) $468K $4K $714K $767K $373K $558K $456K $39K $529K $466K $387K $45K $583K $317K $356K Note: Insufficient data for Arbutus, Mackenzie Heights, & South Granville $515K $316K $23K $325K $497K $396K $274K Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

33 7% 6% Speculative activity % of Condominium Units Held Less Than One Year Housing Bubble City of Vancouver 5% 4% 3% Mini- Bubble Low Speculation 2% 1% % Source: Landcor and CMHC

34 Is the market Sustainable? Market Fundamentals Strong, demand stable New Construction levelling off Resale market moderating, price growth to slow

35 Market Reports now Free on the web

36 Contact info Robyn Adamache Senior Market Analyst - Vancouver T: E: radamach@cmhc.ca