Denver s Retail Sector Keeps Rolling 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000. Square Feet
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1 Research & Forecast Report METRO DENVER RETAIL Q s Retail Sector Keeps Rolling Market Overview Net absorption finished the second half of 2017 with strong positive numbers from s Central and Northwest submarkets. Overall total absorption for the fourth quarter totaled nearly 546,000, bringing total annual absorption to more than 1 million square feet. The Northwest submarket contributed a majority of positive absorption for the quarter with more than 345,000 square feet absorbed. Average asking rates remained unchanged from the previous quarter at $17.13 per square foot. However, this is a 10 percent year-over-year increase on overall average asking rates. Retail vacancy decreased by 40 basis points from the previous quarter to 5.0 percent. Investment activity in the Metro retail sector totaled approximately $168 million during the fourth quarter, as 24 properties transacted. This brings total investment sales to more than $768 million for Two significant shopping centers transacted during the quarter. The Shops at Greenwood Village sold for $24.3 million, and Tamarac Shopping Center sold for $20 million, respectively. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Q Net Absorption Projected Q Investment Sales $168 MILLION Local Employment Growth HIGHLIGHTED ECONOMIC TRENDS Retail investment activity during the fourth quarter 2017 totaled just over $168 million, across 24 sales. 2.8% The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an unemployment rate of 2.8 percent for Metro during November 2017, up from 2.6 percent the previous year. The Metro unemployment rate is significantly lower compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.1 percent. Deliveries Rental Rate *Arrows compare current quarter to the previous quarter s historically adjusted figures Metro Summary Statistics Q Q Rate 5.0% 5.4% Net Absorption YTD 1,062, ,506 SF Under Construction 1,085, ,295 Asking Rents/SF $17.13 $15.55 Square Feet Retail Market Q Q , , , , , , , , ,000 50, , , , , ,000 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Net Absorption Deliveries Total Q % 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%
2 Shopping Center Overview The overall shopping center vacancy rate decreased by 50 basis points compared to the third quarter, dropping below the 6.0 percent mark for the first time since Colliers has been tracking the shopping center market. According to the Census Bureau, e-commerce sales accounted for more than 9 percent of all retail sales during the third quarter (most recent available) a 15.5 percent year-over-year increase. However, Metro continues to see an increase in retail development, as current under construction totals have reached and maintained pre-recession levels throughout Positive net absorption for all shopping centers during the fourth quarter totaled more than 450,000 square feet. Average triple net rents across all shopping centers increased once again during the fourth quarter to $15.16 per square foot. Metro Shopping Center Statistics Center Type Q Q Q Q Strip 6.0% 8.1% 8.7% 6.8% Neighborhood 6.8% 8.0% 8.2% 7.4% Community 7.2% 6.8% 6.8% 7.1% Power/Regional 5.5% 5.9% 6.6% 5.5% Malls (Super Regional) 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% All Shopping Centers 5.8% 6.3% 6.5% 6.0% * is based off of a 10,000 SF minimum search criteria for retail overall and no minimum for shopping centers Q Notable Transactions Retail - Sales Activity PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES PRICE SIZE SF PRICE PSF BUYER SELLER Shops at Greenwood Village Southeast $24,300, ,528 $114 Broad Street Ventures Uhlmann Tamarac Shopping Center Central $20,000,000 68,534 $292 ACF Property Management DDR Green Valley Ranch Towne Center Northeast $13,550, ,750 $134 Highpoint Capital Weingarten Realty, GDC Properties (DC) Retail - Leasing Activity PROPERTY SUBMARKET LEASED SF LEASE TYPE TENANT NAME Lowry Boulevard & S. Quebec Street Central 25,000 New Lucky's Market W. 88th Avenue Northwest 23,200 New Planet Fitness Retail - Triple Net Investment PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES PRICE SIZE SF PRICE PSF CAP BUYER SELLER 24 Hour Fitness New Abbey Lane Castle Rock $10,650,000 41,203 $ % Orris Family Alberta Development Partners Walgreen's E. 120th Avenue Northwest $6,050,000 14,490 $ % Benjamin Armas Sei Park 2 Metro Research & Forecast Report Q / Retail Colliers International
3 New Openings, Relocations, Expansions & Closures Retailers Opening Locations in the Face of Retail Collapse Retailers closing locations does not appear to be anything new; however, when retailers announce they plan to open new locations, it is generally worth looking into. Dollar General recently announced it would be opening as many as 900 stores in A majority of retailers opening new locations in the upcoming year are discounters including Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, Aldi, Five Below, and Hobby Lobby. According to Business Insider, US shoppers started gravitating toward discount stores and most have never returned to shopping full-price. Additionally, consumers are also more inclined to shop online for the best discounted prices. The downfall of full-price department stores has led to significant decline in the performance of traditional shopping malls. Retailers Filing for Bankruptcy Before Going Broke? According to USA Today, an emerging trend in the retail industry has arisen as companies have been filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization while they re still profitable. It s a survival strategy that several national chains have adopted in order to pre-emptively take action in the face of financial hardships. Chains such as Rue21, Payless ShoeSource, and True Religion have all implemented this strategy in Ultimately, the main goal is to reorganize into a smaller, better-functioning company in order to get a fresh start. Macy s Announces More Job Cuts & Store Closures Macy s is planning another round of layoffs and store closures, this time cutting approximately 5,000 jobs and closing seven stores: two in Florida, one in California, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Vermont. During this announcement, there were no indications that Macy s would be closing any Colorado locations at this time. The company noted they have been struggling with its massive real estate footprint and traditional retail model in comparison to e-commerce models. Development News Major Mixed-Use Development Proposed at Coors Field In December 2017, architects released renderings of an outdoor plaza at 19th Avenue and Wazee designed specifically for the Colorado Rockies. The mixed-use project is anticipated to bring restaurants, office space, a hotel, and residences to an area currently utilized as a parking lot immediately southwest of Coors Field. The main attraction of this development will be the future Rockies team hall of fame. The Rockies recently secured a 99-year lease for the lot as part of a $200 million agreement to keep Coors Field the home of the Rockies for the next 30 years. The potential cost for development is unknown at this time. Officials hope to start pulling permits in summer of Mixed-Use Project Planned for RiNo Plans are in the works for a 220,000 square-foot mixed-use development in s growing River North neighborhood. Mass Equities of Santa Monica, CA acquired the 7.8-acre site along Brighton Boulevard and 31st Street in September 2017 for $38 million. The project is proposed to include 85,000 square feet of retail space, a 480-unit apartment complex, and an art creative space consisting of an estimated 62,000 square feet. Construction is scheduled to begin during Q Metro Research & Forecast Report Q / Retail Colliers International
4 Retail Overview EXISTING PROPERTIES ACTIVITY ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTS SUBMARKET/ CLASS BLDGS TOTAL INVENTORY SQ FT DIRECT SUBLEASE CURRENT PRIOR QTR LEASING ACTIVITY SF NET ABSORPTION CURRENT QTR SF NET ABSORPTION YTD SF DELIVERIES CURRENT QTR SF DELIVERIES YTD SF UNDER CONSTRUCTION SF AVG RENTAL (NNN) AURORA ,186, % 0.4% 6.1% 6.6% 140,945 46, , $13.95 BOULDER 249 8,577, % 0.3% 4.7% 4.1% 45,990 (48,852) (113,945) - 40,736 - $20.56 CENTRAL ,856, % 0.0% 4.0% 4.4% 97,106 61, , , ,000 $19.61 COLORADO BLVD/CHERRY CREEK 108 4,702, % 0.2% 2.6% 2.5% 20,437 (1,520) 100,059-71,875 - $29.50 DOWNTOWN 76 2,462, % 0.4% 3.4% 5.7% 20, , ,522 68, ,258 - $25.92 NORTHEAST ,327, % 0.0% 5.5% 5.5% 46,884 3, ,332 10, , ,400 $15.40 NORTHWEST ,750, % 0.1% 7.0% 8.2% 128, , , , , ,980 $14.36 SOUTH ,366, % 0.6% 4.2% 4.1% 41,675 (5,293) 46, $17.89 SOUTHEAST ,468, % 0.5% 5.1% 5.3% 43,128 32,467 (40,284) - 26,500 36,614 $21.77 SOUTHWEST 195 9,072, % 0.4% 5.0% 5.3% 26,276 38,032 (33,792) 10,000 10,000 - $13.93 WEST ,109, % 0.2% 4.2% 3.9% 59,288 (45,403) 52,295-90, ,919 $15.88 MARKET TOTAL Total 3, ,881, % 0.3% 5.0% 5.4% 670, ,995 1,062, , ,897 1,085,913 $17.13 DENVER MARKET QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q4 17 3, ,881, % 0.3% 5.0% 5.4% 670, ,995 1,062, , ,897 1,085,913 $17.13 Q3 17 3, ,679, % 0.5% 5.3% 5.4% 693, , , , ,897 1,139,110 $17.13 Q2 17 3, ,415, % 0.5% 5.4% 5.2% 780,940 (115,146) 109, , ,015 1,080,172 $16.45 Q1 17 3, ,311, % 0.4% 5.2% 5.4% 798, , , , ,070 1,018,409 $16.05 Q4 16 3, ,324, % 0.4% 5.4% 5.5% 1,078, , , , , ,295 $15.55 The information contained in this report was provided by sources deemed to be reliable, however, no guarantee is made as to the accuracy or reliability. As new, corrected or updated information is obtained, it is incorporated into both current and historical data, which may invalidate comparison to previously issued reports. 4 Metro Research & Forecast Report Q / Retail Colliers International
5 for best cities to be a homeowner in the U.S. -SmartAsset, 2017 ranked the best place to live in America -U.S. News, 2017 for most recession-recovered large cities -WalletHub, 2017 for best cities for job seekers -NerdWallet, 2017 #4 best place to retire in America -Bankrate/Gallup-Sharecare, 2017 #7 best cities for foodies -SmartAsset, 2017 #7 for healthiest U.S. cities -American Fitness Index, 2017 has experienced ninestraight months of unemployment below 3.0 percent -Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nov. 2017
6 by Submarket 76 MANAGING DIRECTOR: Brad Calbert, ULI, NAIOP President NORTHWEST 7.0% NORTHEAST 5.5% REGIONAL AUTHOR: Tyson Price Research Director Claire Anhalt Research Analyst WEST 4.2% 6 DOWNTOWN 3.4% 25 CENTRAL 4.0% CO BLVD/ CHERRY CREEK 2.6% AURORA 6.1% RETAIL TEAM: Jay Landt Senior Vice President jay.landt@colliers.com Jason F. Kinsey Vice President jason.kinsey@colliers.com SOUTHWEST 5.0% 470 SOUTH 4.2% 25 SOUTHEAST 5.1% Lisa Vela Senior Broker lisa.vela@colliers.com Brady Kinsey Broker Associate brady.kinsey@colliers.com Jawara Partee Broker Associate jawara.partee@colliers.com About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 15,000 professionals operating out of 396 offices in 68 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. Colliers International has been recognized and ranked by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing 100 for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. Colliers International 4643 South Ulster Street, Suite 1000, CO USA colliers.com Copyright 2017 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
Slow start for Denver s Retail Sector 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000. Square Feet
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