Medical Takes a Sick Quarter

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report LAS VEGAS MEDICAL OFFICE Q Medical Takes a Sick Quarter > > After two quarters of growth, the medical real estate sector stalled in the third quarter of 2015 > > Asking rates had been on the rise, but were flat this quarter HEALTHCARE Employment HEALTHCARE Spending +7.4 MEDICAL /Job -0.6% > > Health care employment continued to increase +2.9% Q3 Given the recent performance of Southern Nevada s medical office market, two quarters of positive net absorption just had to be followed by a quarter of negative net absorption. Fortunately, the negative net absorption in the third quarter of 2015 was quite a bit lower than the negative net absorption experienced one year ago in the third quarter of. The third quarter s negative net absorption drove vacancy rates up a notch to 17.5 percent. Asking rates remained at $2.17 per square foot (psf) on a full service gross (FSG) basis. Historical Vacancy Rates and Rental Rates Market Indicators Relative to prior period Market Q Market Q4 2015* NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS RENTAL *Projected 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% $2.18 $2.17 $2.16 Summary Statistics Q Las Vegas Market Q Q Q3-17.0% $2.15 Vacancy Rate 17.5% 17.4% % 15.0% $2.14 $2.13 Asking Rent (P, FSG) $2.17 $2.17 $ % 13.0% $2.12 $2.11 Net Absorption YTD () -6,806 20, , % $2.10 New Completions YTD () % $ % 3 Q Q Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q Q Q 2015 $2.08 Overall Asking Rents Per Square Foot Previous Quarter Current Quarter Vacancy Rate Rental Rate Class A $2.59 $2.71 While healthcare employment is on the rise, it does not always translate into high (or higher) demand for medical office space. Class B $2.23 $2.22 Class C $1.78 $1.72

2 According to the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation, Southern Nevada s medical office job market improved in August 2015 (the latest month of data available) compared with August, adding approximately 2,500 jobs in the past twelve months. This does not include jobs at hospitals. Employment that directly impacted medical office projects increased by 600 jobs. Most of these additional jobs impacted Class C medical office projects. Unemployment in the Las Vegas-Paradise MSA stood at 7.0 percent as of August 2015, down from 7.6 percent in August. Since August, total employment in Southern Nevada has increased by 35,200 jobs. Historical Net Absorption vs. Completions 100,000 50, ,000 Taxable spending on ambulatory health care services in Clark County in the second quarter of 2015 (the most recent quarter of available data) increased by 7.7 percent over the second quarter of, according to the Nevada Department of Taxation. Compared to the first quarter of 2015, ambulatory health care services spending was down 1.2 percent. Nursing and residential care facilities saw spending rise by 45.9 percent year-over-year, while hospital spending increased by 3.1 percent yearover-year. The last time medical office space was completed in Southern Nevada was during the fourth quarter of 2011, when 57,600 square feet was added to inventory. A new hospital at Union Village is now under construction. When it is completed, development of 150,000 square feet of medical office and 190,000 square feet of retail space will follow, though this could still be months away. Vacancy in medical office space increased in the third quarter of 2015 to 17.5 percent, from 17.4 percent in the second quarter of Vacancy is lower now than in the third quarter of when it stood at 19.1 percent, during the especially weak period of medical net absorption that year. The highest vacancy rates posted in the third quarter of 2015 were in the Southwest (36.4 percent), Airport (33.4 percent), Downtown (24.3 percent) and East Las Vegas (20.5 percent) submarkets. Henderson boasted the lowest vacancy rate in the Valley at 11.7 percent, followed closely by West Central s 12.6 percent. Vacancy increased in the Airport, Downtown, North Las Vegas, Northwest, and Southwest submarkets this quarter, highlighting the precariousness of the current medical recovery. Vacancy decreased in East Las Vegas, Henderson and West Central. Southern Nevada posted negative 6,806 square feet of net absorption in the third quarter of Net absorption has been falling in the Valley for the past two quarters. Year-to-date, net absorption stood at 88,785 square feet. While this is significantly better than the negative 132,258 square feet of net absorption posted, year-to-date, in the third quarter of, it is not a stellar performance. Higher growth in health care employment would suggest that demand for medical office space should be higher, and that medical office buildings are losing business to other types of property, in particular professional office and retail. The weighted average asking rental rate for medical office space in the third quarter of 2015 was $2.17 per square foot (psf) on a full service gross (FSG) basis. Asking rents are the same as they were one quarter ago, and the same as they were in the third quarter of. In leases we have tracked over the past two years, effective lease rates for medical office leases have averaged percent of asking lease rates, which suggests that asking rates are appropriate for the market, and will probably post some growth over the next few quarters. The -100, ,000 3 Q Q Q Net Absorption Healthcare Jobs vs. Occupancy Rate 83.5% 83.0% 82.5% 82.0% 81.5% 81.0% 80.5% 80.0% 79.5% 3 Q Q Q 2 Q Healthcare Jobs 2 Q 3 Q 3 Q 4 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2015 Completions 1 Q Q 2015 Occupancy Rate 2 Q Q Q ,900 15,400 14,900 14,400 13,900 13,400 2 Las Vegas Research & Forecast Report Q Medical Office Colliers International

3 Valley s highest average asking rate was in the Northwest submarket, at $2.48 psf FSG, a reduction for that submarket of $0.09 from one quarter ago. The lowest average asking rate was in the West Central submarket, at $1.74 psf, a reduction of $0.02 from one quarter ago. Lease rates increased this quarter in Downtown, East Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Southwest. Healthcare Services Taxable Spending $30,000,000 Health Services Taxable Spending Investment sales volume of medical office space in 2015 was $33.5 million in six sales totaling 153,844 square feet. The average sales price of $ per square foot. Cap rates ranged between 7.2 percent and 8.6 percent. Two sales have driven this very high average sales price, the sale of a 60,000 square foot Class A medical office building in the first quarter, which had an average sales price of $341.67, and the sale of a Veterans Administration medical building in the Northwest submarket with an average sales price of $ While healthcare employment is on the rise, it does not always translate into more demand for medical office space. The majority of healthcare workers do not work in medical office buildings. Considering this, the positive net absorption we are seeing in medical office space in 2015 is actually pretty good. It seems likely that medical employment, which is almost always growing and which only suffered a minor setback in the run-up to the implementation of the ACA, will continue to grow over the next twelve months. This growth will probably be steady and not spectacular, and thus growth in medical office occupancy will probably also remain steady and not spectacular. Medical office is a workhorse, not a racehorse. $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 Source: Nevada Department of Taxation 1 Q 4 Q Q Q 2013 Source: Nevada Department of Taxation 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q Q 2015 Medical office is a workhorse, not a racehorse. - John Stater, Research & GIS Manager Summerlin Surgery Center & MOB 3 Las Vegas Research & Forecast Report Q Medical Office Colliers International

4 215 NORTH LAS VEGAS Significant Medical Office Sales Activity North Rancho Drive 95 38,000 - $26,750,000 $711.44/ March 2015 NORTHWEST 15 Class B Pinto Lane SUMMERLIN WEST CENTRAL DOWN TOWN EAST LAS VEGAS 10,000 - $1,388,000 $138.80/ April 2015 Class C Casa Vegas Street 28,000 - $5,500, $194.15/ August 2015 Class C AIRPORT Wigwam Parkway ,000 - $20,500,000 $341.67/ February 2015 SOUTHWEST HENDERSON Class A Horizon Ridge Medical Corporate 28,000 - $4,420,000 $155.94/ October Class C Significant Lease Activity Property Name Lease Date Lease Term Size Lease Rate Tenant MacFarlane Medical Center May months 13,000 $1.55 NNN Physicians Nevada Cancer Institute Campus Mar months 8,000 $2.40 MG Non-Medical The Parkway Mar months 20,000 $0.93 NNN Laboratory Thomas & Mack Medical Plaza Dec 84 months 15,000 $2.97 NNN Physicians The Parkway Dec 72 months 6,000 $1.99 NNN Prosthetics 4 Las Vegas Research & Forecast Report Q Medical Office Colliers International

5 Market Comparisons - Las Vegas Medical Office Market TYPE TOTAL INVENTORY DIRECT VACANT DIRECT SUBLEASE SUBLEASE VACANT TOTAL VACANT CURRENT QUARTER PRIOR QUARTER NET ABSORPTION CURRENT QTR NET ABSORPTION YTD COMPLETIONS CURRENT QTR COMPLETIONS YTD UNDER CONSTRUCTION PLANNED CONSTRUCTION WEIGHTED AVG ASKING RENTAL AIRPORT SUBMARKET B - - n/a - n/a - n/a n/a $- C 38,000 12, % - 0.0% 12, % 28.7% (1,790) (1,790) $2.07 Total 38,000 12, % - 0.0% 12, % 28.7% (1,790) (1,790) $2.07 DOWNTOWN SUBMARKET A 65, % - 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% $- B 227,301 84, % - 0.0% 84, % 36.4% (1,608) (53,672) $1.97 C 75,531 5, % - 0.0% 5, % 7.1% 380 4, $2.17 Total 367,832 89, % - 0.0% 89, % 23.9% (1,228) (48,690) $1.99 EAST LAS VEGAS SUBMARKET B 669, , % 2, % 155, % 22.5% (2,810) (2,277) $2.12 C 574, , % 5, % 106, % 20.7% 11,974 (691) $1.63 Total 1,243, , % 7, % 262, % 21.7% 9,164 (2,968) $1.92 HENDERSON SUBMARKET A 421,834 57, % - 0.0% 57, % 15.0% 6,197 26, ,000 $2.93 B 309,703 55, % 2, % 57, % 17.0% -5,066 31, $2.12 C 588,808 41, % - 0.0% 41, % 8.8% 9,699 (86) $2.02 Total 1,320, , % 2, % 156, % 12.7% 10,830 58, ,000 $2.39 NORTH LAS VEGAS SUBMARKET B 43,921 5, % - 0.0% 5, % 10.9% (1,024) 3, $2.15 C 110,668 17, % - 0.0% 17, % 16.2% $2.00 Total 154,589 23, % - 0.0% 23, % 14.7% (1,024) 3, $2.04 NORTHWEST SUBMARKET A 807, , % - 0.0% 160, % 21.8% 15,997 35, ,251 $2.56 B 1,031, , % - 0.0% 108, % 7.7% (28,976) (68,859) $2.40 C 199,215 6, % - 0.0% 6, % 2.8% (867) 1, $1.78 Total 2,038, , % - 0.0% 274, % 12.8% (13,846) (31,669) ,251 $2.48 SOUTHWEST SUBMARKET A 115,300 47, % - 0.0% 47, % 38.1% (3,800) 7, $2.30 B 380, , % 4, % 174, % 40.8% (19,319) 2, ,680 $2.35 C 275,170 62, % 1, % 64, % 22.3% (1,399) 7,485-16, $2.00 Total 771, , % 5, % 286, % 33.8% (24,518) 17,897-16, ,680 $2.27 WEST CENTRAL SUBMARKET B 291,027 21, % - 0.0% 21, % 9.6% 6,543 18, $2.40 C 852, , % 7, % 130, % 16.5% 9,063 75, $1.63 Total 1,143, , % 7, % 151, % 14.7% 15,606 94, $1.74 MARKET TOTAL A 1,409, , % - 0.0% 264, % 20.1% 18,394 70, ,251 $2.59 B 2,953, , % 8, % 607, % 18.7% (52,260) (68,312) ,680 $2.23 C 2,713, , % 13, % 384, % 15.2% 27,060 86,618-16, $1.78 Total 7,077,120 1,235, % 22, % 1,257, % 17.6% (6,806) 88,785-16, ,931 $2.17 QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q3-15 7,077,120 1,235, % 22, % 1,257, % 17.6% (6,806) 88,785-16, ,931 $2.17 Q2-15 7,077,120 1,228, % 20, % 1,248, % 17.7% 20,478 95,591 16,000 16, ,680 $2.17 Q1-15 7,061,120 1,233, % 15, % 1,248, % 18.7% 75,113 75, ,680 $2.16 Q4-14 7,061,120 1,308, % 15, % 1,323, % 19.3% 37,975 (94,283) ,680 $2.16 Q3-14 7,061,120 1,346, % 15, % 1,361, % 17.8% (101,664) (132,258) $2.17 Q2-14 7,061,120 1,244, % 12, % 1,257, % 16.9% (61,189) (30,594) $2.17 Q1-14 7,061,120 1,183, % 9, % 1,192, % 17.6% 55,393 55, $ Las Vegas Research & Forecast Report Q Medical Office Colliers International

6 502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 $2.3 billion in annual revenue COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL LAS VEGAS 3960 Howard Hughes Parkway Suite 150 Las Vegas, Nevada USA MARKET CONTACT: Mike Mixer Executive Managing Director Las Vegas mike.mixer@colliers.com John Stater Research & GIS Manager Las Vegas john.stater@colliers.com 1.7 billion square feet under management 16,300 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is a global leader in commercial real estate services with more than 16,300 professionals operating from 502 offices in 67 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment sales and capital markets, project management and workplace solutions, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal services, and customized research and thought leadership. Colliers International has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. For the latest news from Colliers International, visit Colliers.com or follow us on Twitter (@ColliersIntl) and LinkedIn. colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.