GeoDesign and simulation of an Australian City : What does the future hold what is sustainable?

Transcription

1 GeoDesign and simulation of an Australian City : What does the future hold what is sustainable? DLA Conference June 4 Th 6 Th 2015 Dessau Murray Herron 1, David Jones 1, Phillip Roös 1 and Chuck DONLEY 2 1 School of Architecture & Built Environment, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia 2 Donley & Associates, Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA

2 Research Site: City of Hobsons Bay, Victoria Hobsons Bay

3 Critical Issues Facing Hobsons Bay Expected increase from 25,000 to 50,000 new residents by 2050 Limited available residential land for development - not enough to cover expected demand Thirty percent of the land mass is dedicated to heavy industry including petro chemicals, oil refining, distribution and ship building. In 2015 there is no provision for high density residential development or high rise living. There is a question of how to balance future residential demands against the demands of industrial and commercial land requirements.

4 Current Fundamentals Population 83,863 Households 31,141 Land Area 64.2 Km Dwellings 33,962 Vacant Dwellings 2,821 Current Density 1306 per sq. km

5 Movie Hobson s Bay Landscape 2015

6 Questions to be answered. What is the current landscape like? Where can new residential development occur and at what level? What will be the environmental impact of the new development? Can the level of forecast residential development be sustained?

7 8 Physical Constraints that impact on Potential Development

8 Current Land Use Detached House Detached House Oil & Chemical Buffer Commercial Detached House Commercial Detached House Detached House

9 Forecast Residential Demand Projected demand for new housing ranges From 12,686 to 28,746 units Low / Base / High Scenarios Population Dwelling and New Dwelling Units were forecast to be: Scenario 1 Low Population ,002 95,977 99, ,215 Total Dwelling ,319 40,965 42,680 44,467 New Dwelling Units ,611 1,675 1,742 1,812 Scenario 2 Average Population 91,107 94,275 97, , , , , ,572 Total Dwelling 37,078 38,780 40,399 41,932 43,688 45,517 47,422 49,408 New Dwelling Units ,342 2,184 2,419 2,407 2,528 Scenario 3 High Population 100, , , , , , , ,930 Total Dwelling 40,786 42,658 44,439 46,125 48,056 50,068 52,164 54,348 New Dwelling Units 2,753 2,974 3,211 3,468 3,746 4,046 4,369 4,179

10 Development Process and Criteria All Available Land Parcels Minus all Land that is currently developed Minus area affected by Constraints Potential Areas for Development Development Criteria / Density Net Developable areas 41,852 parcels 34,689 Heavy industrial areas Parks / conservation areas 7,163 Type of Residential Development Density Assumptions 936 parcels Coastline / flood areas

11 Buildable lots identified through CommunityViz analysis 936 lots met criteria Business 1 21 Commercial 2 Industrial Industrial 3 54 Mixed 2 Residential 1 936

12 Movie Where new development is occurring and what it looks like

13 Environmental Indicators and Movie A series of environmental indicators were used to gauge the impact new development would have on the Hobson s Bay landscape The impacts are shown for the year 2016 and 2036

14 Change Scenario and Assumptions

15 Sustainability Is the proposed level of future developments sustainable?

16 Sustainable or Not? The Land Use Analysis shows there is currently not enough land to support the population projections to 2050 using current planning legislation. Thus the proposed development is not sustainable in it current form. There are alternatives which will allow Hobson s Bay to house the expected population increase up to The alternatives include redeveloping the woollen mills in Williamstown the glass plant in Newport and the Toyota Car Plant in Altona. An issue in re-developing such industrial sites will be the cost of remediation.

17 Alternatives

18 Conclusions The economic and residential demographic structure of Hobson Bay is changing. To accommodate future population increases Hobson s Bay will have to embrace: Medium and High Density Developments Revaluate old industrial lands for residential purposes Where possible re zone industrial land to residential uses. AND Decide how large a community it aspires to become and plan towards that goal.