Urban Expansion, Public Land Management and Land Market Outcomes

Transcription

1 Urban Expansion, Public Land Management and Land Market Outcomes Presentation at the 4 th World Urban Forum, Nanjing, China November 2008 Robin Rajack World Bank This Presentation picks up on two themes stressed in the latest World Development Report: Urbanization (and by implication, urban expansion) is a powerful force for good largely because of the benefits of agglomeration economies Land policies matter and may be the binding constraint on successfully managing urbanization 1

2 PART 1 URBAN EXPANSION Urban Expansion What we do and don t know More people are moving to or between cities even though in some parts of the world the rate of population growth is slowing, the actual numbers are increasing Because of this, cities are taking up more land how much more? Larger cities may mean longer commutes, more expensive infrastructure, larger environmental footprint, some loss of agricultural land, some loss of agglomeration economies etc...it may also mean more spacious housing conditions although location may be worse How much does urban form affect city productivity and housing affordability? What are the driving forces of urban expansion other than population growth? Can public policy, especially land and planning policies, make a difference? 2

3 Projected Population Growth The urban population of the developing countries will double in 30 years, from 2 billion in 2000 to 4 billion in Urban Population Projections, (by Region) 4,500 4,000 Urban Population (Millions) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, N.Amer. Europe LAC Africa Asia Ind Dev Region Source: Angel, 2006 The Urban Growth Management Initiative (UGMI) Started by the World Bank about 5 years ago Aim is to study the nature of urban expansion; the forces driving it; its consequences for cities and urban actors; and policy options for managing/ influencing it Global representative sample of 120 cities with populations over 100,000 and stratified for regional coverage, income level and population size 3

4 The Approach Compare two satellite images (Landsat) of each city approximately 10 years apart (roughly 1990 to 2000) Create a number of quantitative indicators (metrics) for urban expansion based on pixel level analyses of the satellite images Derive models to explain urban expansion Conduct field exercises to gather data on institutions, planning, transport, prices etc. to do more detailed analyses To study the impact of spatial form on city productivity, efficiency and affordability of shelter etc. The UGMI global sample Source: Sheppard,2008 City Sample by Size and Income 93, ,000 $610 - $3600 $ $8500 $ $18000 $ $ , mil $610 - $3600 $ $8500 $ $18000 $ $ mil - 4 mil $610 - $3600 $ $8500 $ $18000 $ $30000 Over 4 million $610 - $3600 $ $8500 $ $18000 $ $30000 Eastern Asia Europe, Cont. Northern Africa South and Central Asia Southeast Asia, Cont. Shanghai, China Thessaloniki, Greece Cairo, Egypt Mumbai, India Cebu, Philippines Beijing, China Palermo, Italy Alexandria, Egypt Kolkota, India Ipoh, Malaysia Seoul, Korea Sheffield, UK Casablanca, Morocco Dhaka, Bangladesh Bacolod, Philippines Hong Kong, China Astrakhan, Russia Algiers, Algeria Teheran, Iran Songkhla, Thailand Guangzhou, China Leipzig, Germany Marrakech, Morocco Hyderabad, India Sub-Saharan Africa Pusan, Korea Le Mans, France Port Sudan, Sudan Pune, India Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Zhengzhou, China Castellon, Spain Aswan, Egypt Kanpur, India Johannesburg, South Africa Yulin, China Oktyabrsky, Russia Tébessa, Algeria Jaipur, India Accra, Ghana Yiyang, China Latin America & Caribbean Other Developed Coimbatore, India Harare, Zimbabwe Leshan, China Mexico City, Mexico Tokyo, Japan Vijayawada, India Ibadan, Nigeria Ulan Bator, Mongolia Sao Paolo, Brazil Los Angeles, USA Rajshahi, Bangladesh Pretoria, South Africa Changzhi, China Buenos Aires, Argentina Chicago, USA Ahvaz, Iran Kampala, Uganda Anqing, China Santiago, Chile Philadelphia, USA Shimkent, Kazakhstan Bamako, Mali Ansan, Korea Guadalajara, Mexico Houston, USA Jalna, India Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso Chinju, China Guatemala City, Guatemala Sydney, Australia Gorgan, Iran Ndola, Zambia Chonan, Korea Caracas, Venezuela Minneapolis, USA Saidpur, Bangladesh Banjul, Gambia Europe San Salvador, El Salvador Pittsburgh, USA Southeast Asia Kigali, Rwanda Paris, France Montevideo, Uruguay Cincinnati, USA Manila, Philippines Western Asia Moscow, Russia Tijuana, Mexico Fukuoka, Japan Bangkok, Thailand Istanbul, Turkey London, UK Kingston, Jamaica Tacoma, USA Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel Aviv, Israel Milan, Italy Ribeirão Preto, Brazil Springfield, USA Singapore, Singapore Baku, Azerbaijan Madrid, Spain Valledupar, Colombia Modesto, USA Bandung, Indonesia Sana'a, Yemen Warsaw, Poland Guarujá, Brazil St. Catharine s, Canada Medan, Indonesia Yerevan, Armenia Vienna, Austria Ilhéus, Brazil Victoria, Canada Palembang, Indonesia Kuwait City, Kuwait Budapest, Hungary Jequié, Brazil Akashi, Japan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Malatya, Turkey Z didi G i 4

5 Urban Growth Management Initiative 1 st Report Source: World Bank,

6 Source: World Bank, 2005 Source: World Bank,

7 Source: World Bank, 2005 Source: World Bank,

8 Built-Up Area in Cities of 100,000 or More, (By Region) Area (sq.km) 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 EAP E LAC NA ODC SCA SEA SSA WA Re gion Source: Angel, 2006 Built-Up Area Density, (by Region) 30,000 Density (Persons per Sq.Km.) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 EAP E LAC NA ODC SCA SEA SSA WA Dev Ind World Region Source: Angel,

9 Densities Are Decreasing Everywhere Built- up area densities are decreasing everywhere. According to initial estimates, the built-up area of developing-country cities will at least triple by Built-Up Area Projections, (by Region) 900 Area ('000 Sq.Km.) N.Amer. Europe LAC Africa Asia Ind Dev Region Source: Angel, 2006 What is driving the rising average land consumption? Income growth and development? Changing preferences or social change? Policy failures? Lack of land use planning? Falling transport costs and agricultural land rents? Conflict and urban insecurity? Source: adapted from Sheppard,

10 The Analyses Creation and measurement of several indicators of spatial expansion: compactness, contiguity.. Cross-country regression on each of these indicators of spatial expansion Controls for the potential effects of each possible contributing variable Statistical techniques to compensate for endogenity Initial Findings Considerable urban expansion is linked to economic development Population growth (rural-urban migration) and income growth are of approximately equal importance Increasing fuel prices makes cities more compact Civil conflict and terrorism do not appear to reduce urban density Robust agricultural sector makes cities more compact Increasing role of women in labor market is associated with more compact urban areas Planning policies appear capable of restraining urban growth but are generally somewhat less powerful than other forces (at least as applied) Accounting for income, population, and economic factors used in the models above accounts for most of the differences among cities while every place is special there are not large regional differences in the forces that drive urban expansion Source: Sheppard,

11 PART 2 PUBLIC LAND MANAGMENT Context assertion that many developing country cities are characterized by substantial public land assets which are sub-optimally managed, leading to land supply constraints and price distortions. 11

12 Key Research Question Does the ownership and management of public land matter to land market outcomes? 4 ways public land management may affect land market outcomes (i) withholding of land from the market; (ii) high transactions costs; (iii) limited functional decentralization; and (iv) unfair competition with private sector developers 12

13 1. Withholding of land from the market Failure to strategically interject land onto the market artificial scarcity Withholding due to policy ambivalence Efficiency and social costs of disjointed development 2) High Transaction Costs The contention is that if institutional arrangements for public land management were more efficient, the elasticity of supply of land would be greater. Convoluted Procedures Inter-Agency Coordination Statutory Provisions Governing Public Expenditure Incentive Framework of Public Land officials; Public Land Management Capacity 13

14 3) Public Land Management Insufficiently Decentralised Purported advantages of decentralisation: Greater knowledge of local needs and priorities Greater voice of local communities Stronger monitoring and enforcement Boosting of local revenue (4) Unfair Competition between public and private developers When State Agencies enjoy both regulatory and development powers, they are viewed by private sector competitors as having an advantage. This can allow the state to approve its own projects and reject or delay proposals from competitors. State often charges only nominally for raw land in its land development projects inherent subsidy. 14

15 Evaluation of Public Land Management Effectiveness in the Literature (i) Reviews from an Asset Management Perspective; (ii) Reviews from a Production Function Perspective; and (iii) Reviews of Comparative Transaction Costs and Development Outputs Some New Cross-Country Empirics Probe for correlations between particular features of public land management and specific land market outcomes Probe for correlations between extent of public land ownership and land market outcomes 15

16 Data Sources First round data from the Urban Growth Management Initiative Partial Second Round data from the Urban Growth Management Initiative The World Bank s Investment Climate Assessment Database Henderson s Decentralisation Index Database Original Data Collection Public Land Management Indicators Indicator/Index Public Land Information Management Index Public Land Organisational Arrangements and Capacity Index Public Management Index Land Practices Covers Completeness and reliability of Land Information Records; Coordination of Registry and Cadastre Existence of a Specially Empowered Agency; Existence of a single Agency with multiple functions; Significant in-house capacity; Non-existence of a dual purpose Agency that develops and regulates Regularity of Land banking; Regularity of Public Land patrols; Extent of use of Land Auctions 16

17 Land Market Outcome Indicators House Price to Income Index in 2005 Shelter Price Inflation Contiguity of Built Development Proportion of Invaded Land that is Public Land Proportion of Firms Citing Access to Land as a Major Constraint The Analysis Cross Country Regression Analysis on each of the land market outcome indicators Covering about 50 cities from the Urban Growth Management Initiative sample Controlling for effects of GDP and Population 17

18 FINDINGS Statistically significant relationships between less dominant public sector involvement in land development activity and better land market outcomes. This is potentially important and suggests that significant direct participation by the State to address land market deficiencies on average may not yield better land market outcomes for the poor. FINDINGS This result was supported by other findings that better and more conservative public land management practices (limited or no land banking; auctioning of land; and patrol of sites to detect encroachment) as well as decentralization are also correlated with better land market outcomes. 18

19 FINDINGS These correlations were observed for indicators of affordability, encroachment and access and not for the indicator of spatial form. Across the spectrum of indicators, extent of public land ownership did not generally feature as a reliable predictor of land market outcomes. 19